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NASA NTRS2012

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office?s GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). The hindcasts are initialized every December from 1959 to 2010 following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from the atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) generated using the GEOS-5 atmospheric model. The forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble mean is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but forced with observed CO2. The results show that initialization acts to increase the forecast skill of Northern Atlantic SST compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index is predictable up to a 5-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the Northern Atlantic. While the skill measured by Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS) shows 50% improvement up to 10-year lead forecast over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, however, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre, due in part to the fact that the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region appears to be unrealistic. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Ham, Yoo-Geun↗

NASA NTRS1976

The stellar content of the nuclear regions of Sc galaxies

Stellar-population syntheses based on absolute spectral energy distributions over the wavelength range from 3300 to 10,400 A are used to determine the stellar content of the nuclear regions of seven nearby Sc galaxies (NGC 628, 1073, 1084, 1637, 2903, 4321, and 5194). A linear-programming procedure is employed to construct models of the overall stellar populations whose spectra closely match those of the seven galaxies. Absolute measurements of the emission-line spectra of the nuclear regions are also provided. It is found that: (1) intrinsic reddening is probably present in each nuclear region; (2) the upper main sequence is substantially populated in most of the models; (3) the lower main sequence contributes insignificantly to the luminosity in all optimal solutions; (4) substantial contributions are made by evolved M stars at long wavelengths in all the models; (5) the model photometric M/L ratios are low, of the order of unity; and (6) the O-B stars arising naturally in the population models are just sufficient to provide the observed nuclear ionization in all the galaxies except NGC 5194, which may be collisionally ionized. The properties of the nuclear regions are shown to be consistent with the existence of a common initial mass function for star formation and a variety of time dependences for the star-formation process. A possibly significant correlation is noted between nuclear stellar content and overall dynamical properties in four of the galaxies.

Turnrose, B. E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Microwave (SSM/I) Estimates of the Precipitation Rate to Improve Numerical Atmospheric Model Forecasts

Delay in the spin-up of precipitation early in numerical atmospheric forecasts is a deficiency correctable by diabatic initialization combined with diabatic forcing. For either to be effective requires some knowledge of the magnitude and vertical placement of the latent heating fields. Until recently the best source of cloud and rain water data was the remotely sensed vertical integrated precipitation rate or liquid water content. Vertical placement of the condensation remains unknown. Some information about the vertical distribution of the heating rates and precipitating liquid water and ice can be obtained from retrieval techniques that use a physical model of precipitating clouds to refine and improve the interpretation of the remotely sensed data. A description of this procedure and an examination of its 3-D liquid water products, along with improved modeling methods that enhance or speed-up storm development is discussed.

Raymond, William H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mars Global Surveyor Data Analysis Program. Origins of Small Volcanic Cones: Eruption Mechanisms and Implications for Water on Mars

The goal of the proposed work was to determine the origins of small volcanic cones observed in Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data, and their implications for regolith ice stores and magma volatile contents. For this 1-year study, our approach involved a combination of: Quantitative morphologic analysis and interpretation of Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data; Numerical modeling of eruption processes responsible for producing the observed features; Fieldwork on terrestrial analogs in Iceland. Following this approach, this study succeeded in furthering our understanding of (i) the spatial and temporal distribution of near-surface water ice, as defined by the distribution and sizes of rootless volcanic cones ("pseudocraters"), and (ii) the properties, eruption conditions, and volatile contents of magmas producing primary vent cones.

Fagents, Sarah A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Information Content of the Near-Field I: Two-Dimensional Samples

Limits on the effective resolution of many optical near-field experiments are investigated. The results are applicable to variants of total-internal-reflection microscopy (TIRM), photon-scanning-tunneling microscopy (PSTM), and near-field-scanning-optical microscopy (NSOM) in which the sample is weakly scattering and the direction of illumination may be controlled. Analytical expressions for the variance of the estimate of the complex susceptibility of an unknown two-dimensional object as a function of spatial frequency are obtained for Gaussian and Poisson noise models, and a model-independent measure is examined. The results are used to explore the transition from near-zone to far-zone detection. It is demonstrated that the information content of the measurements made at a distance of even one wavelength away from the sample is already not much different from the information content of the far field. Copyright 2004 Optical Society of America

Frazin, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer HDO/H2O Retrieval Simulator for Climate Models

Retrievals of the isotopic composition of water vapor from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) have unique value in constraining moist processes in climate models. Accurate comparison between simulated and retrieved values requires that model profiles that would be poorly retrieved are excluded, and that an instrument operator be applied to the remaining profiles. Typically, this is done by sampling model output at satellite measurement points and using the quality flags and averaging kernels from individual retrievals at specific places and times. This approach is not reliable when the model meteorological conditions influencing retrieval sensitivity are different from those observed by the instrument at short time scales, which will be the case for free-running climate simulations. In this study, we describe an alternative, categorical approach to applying the instrument operator, implemented within the NASA GISS ModelE general circulation model. Retrieval quality and averaging kernel structure are predicted empirically from model conditions, rather than obtained from collocated satellite observations. This approach can be used for arbitrary model configurations, and requires no agreement between satellite-retrieved and model meteorology at short time scales. To test this approach, nudged simUlations were conducted using both the retrieval-based and categorical operators. Cloud cover, surface temperature and free-tropospheric moisture content were the most important predictors of retrieval quality and averaging kernel structure. There was good agreement between the D fields after applying the retrieval-based and more detailed categorical operators, with increases of up to 30 over the ocean and decreases of up to 40 over land relative to the raw model fields. The categorical operator performed better over the ocean than over land, and requires further refinement for use outside of the tropics. After applying the TES operator, ModelE had D biases of 8 over ocean and 34 over land compared to TES D, which were less than the biases using raw model D fields.

Field, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A model for the estimation of the surface fluxes of momentum, heat and moisture of the cloud topped marine atmospheric boundary layer from satellite measurable parameters

A model is developed for the estimation of the surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and moisture of the cloud topped marine atmospheric boundary layer by use of satellite remotely sensed parameters. The parameters chosen for the problem are the integrated liquid water content, q sub li, the integrated water vapor content, q sub vi, the cloud top temperature, and either a measure of the 10 meter neutral wind speed or the friction velocity at the surface. Under the assumption of a horizontally homogeneous, well-mixed boundary layer, the model calculates the equivalent potential temperature and total water profiles of the boundary layer along with the boundary layer height from inputs of q sub li, q sub vi, and cloud top temperature. These values, along with the 10m neutral wind speed or friction velocity and the sea surface temperature are then used to estimate the surface fluxes. The development of a scheme to parameterize the integrated water vapor outside of the boundary layer for the cases of cold air outbreak and California coastal stratus is presented.

Allison, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Vertical sounding of the atmosphere with the Nimbus IV infrared spectrometer experiment.

Nimbus III and IV meteorological satellite data obtained on a Michelson interferometer are used as a basis for sounding the vertical temperature and water-vapor and ozone content profiles in the atmosphere. Selection of suitable locations and bandwidths for making such soundings efficient is discussed. Several transmittance models of the atmosphere, and terrain properties and cloud emissivity effects as factors influencing the sounding results are considered.

Conrath, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Elementary analytic models of climate. 1: The mean global heat balance

Climate models based on global radiative equilibrium are normally so complicated that they require extensive computer codes to provide adequate accuracy. However, by simply modifying the concept of a gray atmosphere, a reasonably correct mean global temperature is obtained. This elementary model is then used to estimate the effects of changes in the abundances of minor infrared absorbers and changes in the solar constant or earth albedo. When applied to a Budyko-Sellers zonally averaged model, the quasi-gray model could give a physical basis for the latitude dependence of outgoing radiation and of opacity due to H2O vapor content. The latter effect constitutes an important positive feedback on surface temperature.

Chamberlain, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Remote sensing of snow properties by passive microwave radiometry: GSFC truck experiment

Recent results indicate that microwave radiometry has the potential for inferring the snow depth and water equivalent information from snowpacks. In order to assess this potential for determining the water equivalent of a snowpack, it is necessary to understand the microwave emission and scattering behavior of the snow at various wavelengths under carefully controlled conditions. Truck-mounted microwave instrumentation was used to study the microwave characteristics of the snowpack in the Colorado Rocky Mountain region during the winters of 1977 to 78 and 7978 to 79. The spectral signatures of C, X, K sub u, and K sub a band radiometers with dual polarization were used, together with measurements of snowpack density, temperature an ram profiles, liquid water content, and rough characterization of the crystal sizes. These data compared favorably with calculated results based on recent microscopic scattering models.

Chang, A. T. C.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Adherent Al2O3 scales produced on undoped NiCrAl alloys

Repeated oxidation and polishing of high purity Ni-15Cr-13Al has dramatically changed its cyclic oxidation behavior from nonadherent to adherent. No apparent change in scale phase, morphology or interface structure occurred during this transition, dismissing any mechanism based on pegging, vacancy sink, or growth stress. The principle change that did occur was a reduction in the sulfur content from 10 ppmw to 3 ppmw after 25 cycles at 1120 C. These observations are used to support the model of Al2O3 scale adherence put forth by Smeggil et al. which claims that Al2O3 scale spallation occurs due to sulfur segregation and bond deterioration at the oxide-metal interface.

Smialek, James L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The effects of cloud radiative forcing on an ocean-covered planet

Cumulus anvil clouds, whose importance has been emphasized by observationalists in recent years, exert a very powerful influence on deep tropical convection by tending to radiatively destabilize the troposphere. In addition, they radiatively warm the column in which they reside. Their strong influence on the simulated climate argues for a much more refined parameterization in the General Circulation Model (GCM). For Seaworld, the atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) has a powerful influence on such basic climate parameters as the strength of the Hadley circulation, the existence of a single narrow InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the precipitable water content of the atmosphere. It seems likely, however, that in the real world the surface CRF feeds back negatively to suppress moist convection and the associated cloudiness, and so tends to counteract the effects of the ACRF. Many current climate models have fixed sea surface temperatures but variable land-surface temperatures. The tropical circulations of such models may experience a position feedback due to ACRF over the oceans, and a negative or weak feedback due to surface CRF over the land. The overall effects of the CRF on the climate system can only be firmly established through much further analysis, which can benefit greatly from the use of a coupled ocean-atmospheric model.

Randall, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Microwave remote sensing and radar polarization signatures of natural fields

Theoretical models developed for simulation of microwave remote sensing of the Earth surface from airborne/spaceborne sensors are described. Theoretical model calculations were performed and the results were compared with data of field measurements. Data studied included polarimetric images at the frequencies of P band, L band, and C band, acquired with airborne polarimeters over a agricultural field test site. Radar polarization signatures from bare soil surfaces and from tree covered fields were obtained from the data. The models developed in this report include: (1) Small perturbation model of wave scatterings from randomly rough surfaces, (2) Physical optics model, (3) Geometrical optics model, and (4) Electromagnetic wave scattering from dielectric cylinders of finite lengths, which replace the trees and branches in the modeling of tree covered field. Additionally, a three-layer emissivity model for passive sensing of a vegetation covered soil surface is also developed. The effects of surface roughness, soil moisture contents, and tree parameters on the polarization signatures were investigated.

Mo, Tsan↗

NASA NTRS1992

Imaging observations of Jupiter's sodium magneto-nebula during the Ulysses encounter

Jupiter's great sodium nebula represents the largest visible structure traversed by the Ulysses spacecraft during its encounter with the planet in February 1992. Ground-based imaging conducted on Mount Haleakala, Hawaii, revealed a nebula that extended to at least +/- 300 Jovian radii; it was somewhat smaller in scale and less bright than previously observed. Analysis of observations and results of modeling studies suggest reduced volcanic activity on the moon Io, higher ion temperatures in the plasma torus, lower total plasma content in the torus, and fast neutral atomic clouds along the Ulysses inbound trajectory through the magnetosphere. Far fewer neutrals were encountered by the spacecraft along its postencounter, out-of-ecliptic trajectory.

Mendillo, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1992

Crop growth and associated life support for a lunar farm

Supporting human life on a lunar base will require growing many different food crops. This paper investigates the growth dynamics of four crops (wheat, soybeans, potatoes, and lettuce) for general similarities and differences, along with associated material flows of the gases, liquids, and solids in a lunar farm. The human dietary requirements are compared with the protein, carbohydrate, and lipid contents of these hydroponically grown, high-productivity crops to derive a lunar farm diet. A simple and general analytical model is used to calculate the mass fluxes of CO2, H2O, HNO3, and O2 during the life cycle of each of the four crops. The resulting farm crop areas and corresponding biomass production rates are given. One significant conclusion of this study is that there is a 'lipid problem' associated with the incorporation of these four crops into a viable diet.

Volk, Tyler↗

NASA NTRS1992

Benzonorbornadiene end caps for PMR resins

Several ortho-disubstituted benzonorbornadiene derivatives are described. These molecules contain acid, ester, or anhydride functionality permitting their use as end caps in PMR (polymerization of monomer reactants) polyimide systems. The replacement of the currently used norbornenyl end caps with benzonorbornadienyl end caps affords resins of increased aromatic content. It also allows evaluation of some mechanistic aspects of PMR cross-linking. Initial testing of N-phenylimide model compounds and of actual resin formulations using the benzonorbornadienyl end cap reveals that they undergo efficient thermal crosslinking to give oligomers with physical properties and thermal stability comparable to commercial norbornene-end-capped PMR systems.

Panigot, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Recondensation of chondritic material in the early solar system: Results of thermodynamic simulation

We have performed a thermodynamic simulation of the recondensation of evaporated meteoritic material. We suggest that evaporation and recondensation occurred in impact events during the intercollision of planetesimals during the early evolution of the solar system. The source materials adopted for our model are the chondrites CI Orgueil and H5 Richardton. These chondrites are representative examples of the two extremes regarding volatile content and oxidation state. We calculated equilibrium mineral compositions of the closed systems of the Orgueil's and Richardton's elemental composition at the P-T conditions characteristic of the explosion cloud formed at a planetesimal collision. The P-T conditions are as follows: 10(exp -4) bar, and 1500 and 2000 K. The results are presented.

Dorofeyeva, V. A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Stratospheric Heterogeneous Chemistry and Microphysics: Model Development, Validation and Applications

The objectives of this project are to: define the chemical and physical processes leading to stratospheric ozone change that involve polar stratospheric clouds (PSCS) and the reactions occurring on the surfaces of PSC particles; study the formation processes, and the physical and chemical properties of PSCS, that are relevant to atmospheric chemistry and to the interpretation of field measurements taken during polar stratosphere missions; develop quantitative models describing PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemical processes; assimilate laboratory and field data into these models; and calculate the extent of chemical processing on PSCs and the impact of specific microphysical processes on polar composition and ozone depletion. During the course of the project, a new coupled microphysics/physical-chemistry/ photochemistry model for stratospheric sulfate aerosols and nitric acid and ice PSCs was developed and applied to analyze data collected during NASA's Arctic Airborne Stratospheric Expedition-II (AASE-II) and other missions. In this model, detailed treatments of multicomponent sulfate aerosol physical chemistry, sulfate aerosol microphysics, polar stratospheric cloud microphysics, PSC ice surface chemistry, as well as homogeneous gas-phase chemistry were included for the first time. In recent studies focusing on AASE measurements, the PSC model was used to analyze specific measurements from an aircraft deployment of an aerosol impactor, FSSP, and NO(y) detector. The calculated results are in excellent agreement with observations for particle volumes as well as NO(y) concentrations, thus confirming the importance of supercooled sulfate/nitrate droplets in PSC formation. The same model has been applied to perform a statistical study of PSC properties in the Northern Hemisphere using several hundred high-latitude air parcel trajectories obtained from Goddard. The rates of ozone depletion along trajectories with different meteorological histories are presently being systematically evaluated to identify the principal relationships between ozone loss and aerosol state. Under this project, we formulated a detailed quantitative model that predicts the multicomponent composition of sulfate aerosols under stratospheric conditions, including sulfuric, nitric, hydrochloric, hydrofluoric and hydrobromic acids. This work defined for the first time the behavior of liquid ternary-system type-1b PSCS. The model also allows the compositions and reactivities of sulfate aerosols to be calculated over the entire range of environmental conditions encountered in the stratosphere (and has been incorporated into a trajectory/microphysics model-see above). Important conclusions that derived from this work over the last few years include the following: the HNO3 content of liquid-state aerosols dominate PSCs below about 195 K; the freezing of nitric acid ice from sulfate aerosol solutions is likely to occur within a few degrees K of the water vapor frost point; the uptake and reactions of HCl in liquid aerosols is a critical component of PSC heterogeneous chemistry. In a related application of this work, the inefficiency of chlorine injection into the stratosphere during major volcanic eruptions was explained on the basis of nucleation of sulfuric acid aerosols in rising volcanic plumes leading to the formation of supercooled water droplets on these aerosols, which efficiently scavenges HCl via precipitation.

Turco, Richard P.↗