SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Climate attribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Cloud water adjustments to aerosol perturbations are buffered by solar heating in non-precipitating marine stratocumuli

Abstract. Marine low-level clouds are key to the Earth's energy budget due to their expansive coverage over global oceans and their high reflectance of incoming solar radiation. Their responses to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations remain the largest source of uncertainty in estimating the anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate. A major challenge is the quantification of the cloud water response to aerosol perturbations. In particular, the presence of feedbacks through microphysical, dynamical, and thermodynamical pathways at various spatial and temporal scales could augment or weaken the response. Central to this problem is the temporal evolution in cloud adjustment, governed by entangled feedback mechanisms. We apply an innovative conditional Monte Carlo subsampling approach to a large ensemble of diurnal large-eddy simulation of non-precipitating marine stratocumulus to study the role of solar heating in governing the evolution in the relationship between droplet number and cloud water. We find a persistent negative trend in this relationship at night, confirming that the role of microphysically enhanced cloud-top entrainment. After sunrise, the evolution in this relationship appears buffered and converges to ∼-0.2 in the late afternoon. This buffering effect is attributed to a strong dependence of cloud-layer shortwave absorption on cloud liquid water path. These diurnal cycle characteristics further demonstrate a tight connection between cloud brightening potential and the relationship between cloud water and droplet number at sunrise, which has implications for the impact of the timing of advertent aerosol perturbations.

Zhang, Jianhao (ORCID:0000000169882935)↗

NASA NTRS1997

Striations, Polish, and Related Features from Clasts in Impact-Ejecta Deposits and the "Tillite Problem"

Proximal ejecta deposits related to three large terrestrial impacts, the 14.8-Ma Ries impact structure in Germany (the Bunte Breccia), the 65-Ma Chicxulub impact structure in the Yucatan (the Albion and Pook's Hill Diamictites in Belize) and the mid-Tertiary Azuara impact structure in Spain (the Pelarda Fm.) occur in the form of widespread debris-flow deposits most likely originating from ballistic processes. These impact-related diamictites typically are poorly sorted, containing grain sizes from clay to large boulders and blocks, and commonly display evidence of mass flow, including preferred orientation of long axes of clasts, class imbrication, flow noses, plugs and pods of coarse debris, and internal shear planes. Clasts of various lithologies show faceting, various degrees of rounding, striations (including nailhead striae), crescentic chattermarks, mirror-like polish, percussion marks, pitting, and penetration features. Considering the impact history of the Earth, it is surprising that so few ballistic ejecta, deposits have been discovered, unless the preservation potential is extremely low, or such materials exist but have been overlooked or misidentified as other types of geologic deposits . Debris-flow diamictites of various kinds have been reported in the geologic record, but these are commonly attributed to glaciation based on the coarse and poorly sorted nature of the deposits and, in many cases, on the presence of clasts showing features considered diagnostic of glacial action, including striations of various kinds, polish, and pitting. These diamictites are the primary evidence for ancient ice ages. We present evidence of the surface features on clasts from known proximal ejecta debris-flow deposits and compare these features with those reported in diamictites. interpreted as ancient glacial deposits (tillites). Our purpose is to document the types of features seen on clasts in diamictites of ejecta origin in order to help in the interpretation of the origin of ancient diamictites. The recognition of characteristic features in clast populations in ancient diamictites may allow identification and discrimination of debris-flow deposits of various origins (e.g., impact glacial, tectonic) and may shed light on some climatic paradoxes, such as inferred Proterozoic glaciations at low paleolatitudes.

Rampino, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

The GeoCarb Mission: One Tool in the Evolving Understanding of Methane and Carbon Monoxide Budgets

NASA plans to operate an instrument in geostationary orbit over the Americas beginning in 2022. This mission allows a coordinated study of climate-determining carbon species. Prime focus is on CO2 fluxes, but the reactive species CO and CH4 are particularly relevant to IGAC. Measurements of solar-induced fluorescence will describe plant photosynthesis contemporaneous with emissions. To outline the technology: Grating mapping spectrometery, using a single slit and four focal planes set at 0.76, 1.60, 2.07, and 2.32 microns and ~17000 resolving power. Retrieval profiting from the rich heritage of OCO-2, GOSAT, TropOMI, and GOME/SCIAMACHY. Column concentrations of CO2, CH4, and CO, with finest resolution at 3 km x 6 km. A selection of scans allowing appreciable refinement in fluxes of CO2 and CH4. Rapid re-pointing allowing at least one synoptic observation of all North and South America daily, and 3 observations through the day for selected areas.This presentation is an appeal to IGAC community to use GeoCarb to help improve the attribution of fluxes by sector and by geography. Cost constraints allow GeoCarb only limited listed goals. For example, GeoCarb aspires to constrain CH4 emissions for the whole US, closing the ~60% gap between US EPA estimation and 3-d models. Detailed CO measurements should also aid photochemical and aerosol studies. NASA's TEMPO (UV-Vis geostationary) instrument will overlap GeoCarb. Consequently, HCHO, NO2, aerosol, and CO may be intercompared, allowing elucidation of chemical sources and also transformation timescales. We expect that Sentinel-5P's TropOMI will lead the way here; geostationary imaging will allow diurnal views and reduced cloud obscuration of interesting areas. Analysis of current data suggests interesting questions: (a) puzzling XCH4 diel variations in the Amazonian rainforest; (b) time-varying CO/NO2 relationships in urban plumes. We also urge the suite of airborne and small-sat measurements needed to complete the story at fine scales.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improved Convective Ice Microphysics Parameterization in the NCAR CAM Model

Partitioning deep convective cloud condensates into components that sediment and detrain, known to be a challenge for global climate models, is important for cloud vertical distribution and anvil cloud formation. In this study, we address this issue by improving the convective microphysics scheme in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3). The improvements include: (1) considering sedimentation for cloud ice crystals that do not fall in the original scheme, (2) applying a new terminal velocity parameterization that depends on the environmental conditions for convective snow, (3) adding a new hydrometeor category, “rimed ice,” to the original four-class (cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain, and snow) scheme, and (4) allowing convective clouds to detrain snow particles into stratiform clouds. Results from the default and modified CAM5.3 models were evaluated against observations from the U.S. Department of Energy Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) field campaign. The default model overestimates ice amount, which is largely attributed to the underestimation of convective ice particle sedimentation. By considering cloud ice sedimentation and rimed ice particles and applying a new convective snow terminal velocity parameterization, the vertical distribution of ice amount is much improved in the midtroposphere and upper troposphere when compared to observations. The vertical distribution of ice condensate also agrees well with observational best estimates upon considering snow detrainment. Further, comparison with observed convective updrafts reveals that current bulk model fails to reproduce the observed updraft magnitude and occurrence frequency, suggesting spectral distributions be required to simulate the subgrid updraft heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Analysis of Low-Frequency Precipitation Variability in CMIP5 Historical Simulations for Southwestern North America

Drier future conditions are projected for the arid southwest of North America, increasing the chances of the region experiencing severe and prolonged drought. To examine the mechanisms of decadal variability, 47 global climate model historical simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were assessed. On average, the CMIP5 models have higher climatological precipitation over the past century in southwestern North America than current instrumental or reanalysis products. The timing of the winter peak in climatological precipitation over California and Nevada is accurately represented. Models with resolutions coarser than 2° show a larger spread in the location and strength of the North American monsoon ridge and subsequent summer precipitation, in comparison with the higher-resolution models. Less than 20% of decadal variability in wintertime precipitation over California is associated with North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, a larger proportion than is associated with the tropical forcing but not sufficient for making decadal drought predictions. North American monsoon precipitation is strongly associated with local land temperatures on interannual-to-decadal time scales attributable to evaporative cooling and radiation changes driven by varying cloud cover. Soil moisture in Texas and Oklahoma in April is shown to be positively correlated with monsoon precipitation for the following summer, indicating a potential source of nonoceanic interseasonal persistence in southwestern North American hydroclimate. To make meaningful decadal predictions in the future, it is likely that forecasting will move away from sea surface temperature–driven anomaly patterns, and focus on land surface processes, which can allow persistence of precipitation anomalies via feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Dynamical Response of Mediterranean Precipitation to Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs). Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC) forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP) pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation-Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901-2010, roughly one-third (31+/-17%) of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol-cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and the economy in the Mediterranean region.

Tang, Tao↗

NASA NTRS2021

Improved Convective Ice Microphysics Parameterization in the NCAR CAM Model

Partitioning deep convective cloud condensates into components that sediment and detrain, known to be a challenge for global climate models, is important for cloud vertical distribution and anvil cloud formation. In this study, we address this issue by improving the convective microphysics scheme in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3). The improvements include: (1) considering sedimentation for cloud ice crystals that do not fall in the original scheme, (2) applying a new terminal velocity parameterization that depends on the environmental conditions for convective snow, (3) adding a new hydrometeor category, “rimed ice,” to the original four-class (cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain, and snow) scheme, and (4) allowing convective clouds to detrain snow particles into stratiform clouds. Results from the default and modified CAM5.3 models were evaluated against observations from the U.S. Department of Energy Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) field campaign. The default model overestimates ice amount, which is largely attributed to the underestimation of convective ice particle sedimentation. By considering cloud ice sedimentation and rimed ice particles and applying a new convective snow terminal velocity parameterization, the vertical distribution of ice amount is much improved in the midtroposphere and upper troposphere when compared to observations. The vertical distribution of ice condensate also agrees well with observational best estimates upon considering snow detrainment. Comparison with observed convective updrafts reveals that current bulk model fails to reproduce the observed updraft magnitude and occurrence frequency, suggesting spectral distributions be required to simulate the subgrid updraft heterogeneity.

terminal velocity↗

DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of heat- and cold-related emergency department visits in cities of China and Australia: Population vulnerability and attributable burden

Highlights: • The first comparative study on temperature impacts on EDV between different settings. • Significant associations of EDV with heat and cold in both China and Australia. • Higher heat and cold trigger points in Australia than in China. • For heat effects, higher RR in Australia, but similar AF between two countries. • For cold effects, similar RR between two countries, but higher AF in China. Non-optimal ambient temperature has detrimental impacts on mortality worldwide, but little is known about the difference in population vulnerability to non-optimal temperature and temperature-related morbidity burden between developing and developed countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Temporal evolution of soil moisture statistical fractal and controls by soil texture and regional groundwater flow

Soil moisture statistical fractal is an important tool for downscaling remotely-sensed observations and has the potential to play a key role in multi-scale hydrologic modeling. The fractal was first introduced two decades ago, but relatively little is known regarding how its scaling exponents evolve in time in response to climatic forcings. Previous studies have neglected the process of moisture re-distribution due to regional groundwater flow. Here, we used a physically-based surface-subsurface processes model and numerical experiments to elucidate the patterns and controls of fractal temporal evolution in two U.S. Midwest basins. Groundwater flow was found to introduce large-scale spatial structure, thereby reducing the scaling exponents (τ), which has implications for the transferability of calibrated parameters to predict τ. However, the groundwater effects depend on complex interactions with other physical controls such as soil texture and land use. The fractal scaling exponents, while in general showing a seasonal mode that correlates with mean moisture content, display hysteresis after storm events that can be divided into three phases, consistent with literature findings: (a) wetting, (b) re-organizing, and (c) dry-down. Modeling experiments clearly show that the hysteresis is attributed to soil texture, whose "patchiness" is the primary contributing factor. We generalized phenomenological rules for the impacts of rainfall, soil texture, groundwater flow, and land use on τevolution. Grid resolution has a mild influence on the results and there is a strong correlation between predictions of τ from different resolutions. Overall, our results suggest that groundwater flow should be given more consideration in studies of the soil moisture statistical fractal, especially in regions with a shallow water table.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards a More Realistic Representation of Surface Albedo in NASA CERES Satellite Products: A Comparison with MOSAiC Field Campaign

Observing the Arctic from space is one of the most challenging tasks in climate science. Uncertainty in the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)-derived irradiances is larger over sea ice than any other scene type and comes from several sources. The one-year long MOSAiC expedition in the central Arctic provides a rare opportunity to explore uncertainty in CERES-derived radiative fluxes. First, a systematic and statistically robust assessment of surface shortwave and longwave fluxes has been conducted using in-situ measurements from MOSAiC flux stations. The CERES SYN1deg product overestimates the SW_down flux by 11.40 Wm-2 and underestimates the SW_up flux by −15.70 Wm-2 and LW_down fluxes by −13.30 Wm-2 at the surface during summertime. In addition, large differences are found in the LW_up flux (~320 Wm-2) when the surface reaches melting point (~0℃). The large negative bias in upwelling shortwave flux can be attributed to the underestimation of surface albedo (−0.15) in SYN1deg. In addition to direct comparison, a series of perturbation experiments with a radiative transfer model are performed to estimate the contributions to the differences. By correcting both cloud and albedo inputs, the biases in SW_net flux and LW_net flux can be reduced to less than half of the control run biases to +19.90% and −10.53%, respectively. Furthermore, a compensating effect between underestimation of broadband albedo and overestimation of spectral albedo in visible and mid-infrared bands in SYN1deg datasets is found and contributes to the shortwave flux differences. The difference in CERES broadband albedo (~20 Wm 2) contributes to larger uncertainty in SW_up flux than spectral albedo shape (~3 Wm 2). The results of this study inform the future development of CERES products and will ultimately reduce uncertainties in Arctic surface radiation budget derived from satellite measurements.

Yiyi Huang↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Coupled Evaluation of Operational MODIS and Model Aerosol Products for Maritime Environments Using Sun Photometry: Evaluation of the Fine and Coarse Mode

Although satellite retrievals and data assimilation have progressed to where there is a good skill for monitoring maritime Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), there remains uncertainty in achieving further degrees of freedom, such as distinguishing fine and coarse mode dominated species in maritime environments (e.g., coarse mode sea salt and dust versus fine mode terrestrial anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, and maritime secondary production). For the years 2016 through 2019, we performed an analysis of 550 nm total AOD550, fine mode AOD (FAOD550; also known as FM AOD in the literature), coarse mode AOD (CAOD550), and fine mode fraction (η550) between Moderate Resolution Spectral Imaging Radiometer (MODIS) V6.1 MOD/MYD04 dark target aerosol retrievals and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) core four multi-model consensus (C4C) of analyses/short term forecasts that assimilate total MODIS AOD550. Differences were adjudicated by the global shipboard Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) and selected island AERONET sun photometer observations with the application of the spectral deconvolution algorithm (SDA). Through a series of conditional and regional analyses, we found divergence included regions of terrestrial influence and latitudinal dependencies in the remote oceans. Notably, MODIS and the C4C and its members, while having good correlations overall, have a persistent +0.04 to +0.02 biases relative to MAN and AERONET for typical AOD550 values (84th% < 0.28), with the C4C underestimating significant events thereafter. Second, high biases in AOD550 are largely associated with the attribution of the fine mode in satellites and models alike. Thus, both MODIS and C4C members are systematically overestimating AOD550 and FAOD550 but perform better in characterizing the CAOD550. Third, for MODIS, findings are consistent with previous reports of a high bias in the retrieved Ångström Exponent, and we diagnosed both the optical model and cloud masking as likely causal factors for the AOD550 and FAOD550 high bias, whereas for the C4C, it is likely from secondary overproduction and perhaps numerical diffusion. Fourth, while there is no wind-speed-dependent bias for surface winds <12 m s−1, the C4C and MODIS AOD550s also overestimate CAOD550 and FAOD550, respectively, for wind speeds above 12 m/s. Finally, sampling bias inherent in MAN, as well as other circumstantial evidence, suggests biases in MODIS are likely MODIS and the C4C products have their own strengths and challenges for a given climate application and discuss needed research. even larger than what was diagnosed here. We conclude with a discussion on how

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation

The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the ‘tipping year’ Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Southern Great Plains Ice Nuclei Characterization Experiment Final Campaign Summary

The first ever ice nucleating particle (INP) measurements to be collected at the Southern Great Plains site were made during a period from late April to June 2014, as a trial for possible longer-term measurements at the site. These measurements will also be used to lay the foundation for understanding and parameterizing (for cloud resolving modeling) the sources of these climatically important aerosols as well as to augment the existing database containing this knowledge. Siting the measurements during the spring was intended to capture INP sources in or to this region from plant, soil, dust transported over long distances, biomass burning, and pollution aerosols at a time when they may influence warm-season convective clouds and precipitation. Data have been archived of real-time measurements of INP number concentrations as a function of processing conditions (temperature and relative humidity) during 18 days of sampling that spanned two distinctly different weather situations: a warm, dry and windy period with regional dust and biomass burning influences in early May, and a cooler period of frequent precipitation during early June. Precipitation delayed winter wheat harvesting, preventing intended sampling during that perturbation on atmospheric aerosols. INP concentrations were highest and most variable at all temperatures in the dry period, where we attribute the INP activity primarily to soil dust emissions. Additional offline INP analyses are underway to extend the characterization of INP to cover the entire mixed phase cloud regime from -5°C to -35°C during the full study. Initial comparisons between methods on four days show good agreement and excellent future promise. The additional offline immersion freezing data will be archived as soon as completed under separate funding. Analyses of additional specialized studies for specific attribution of INP to biological and smoke sources are continuing via the National Science Foundation and National Aeronautics and Space Administration funding that helped support instrumentation used for the measurements described herein. Aerosol Observing System aerosol data will be vital to the interpretation and parameterization of results as part of analyses for publications in preparation.

DeMott, PJ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Accelerated Springtime Melt of Snow on Tundra Downwind from Northern Alaska River Systems Resulting from Niveo-aeolian Deposition Events

It is well known that light-absorbing particulate matter (PM) enhances absorption of sunlight when deposited on ice and snow. Such increased absorption is due to a reduction in surface albedo, resulting in accelerated melt of frozen surfaces. In isolation, earlier melt enhances Arctic warming since dark surfaces underlying snow and ice are exposed and absorb additional solar energy. Here, we combine various observational tools to demonstrate that aeolian deposition of PM along fluvial features on the North Slope of Alaska resulted in a notable reduction of surface albedo in the spring of 2016, from values typical for snow (~0.8) to around 0.35 on average. This reduction resulted in accelerated snow and ice melt by up to three weeks compared to unaffected areas. This phenomenon was observed to some degree in 12 other years dating back to 2003. Deposition generally was found to occur near particular sections of the rivers, with several areas affected by events in multiple years. In all years, the deposition is attributed to high wind events. The extreme case in 2016 is linked to unusually strong and extraordinarily persistent winds during April. The deposited material is thought to be the natural sediment carried by the rivers, resulting in a seasonally replenished source of PM. These findings indicate a previously unreported impact of both fluvial and atmospheric processes on the seasonal melt of northern Alaska rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Scale Attribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Dust Sources and their Emission Rates Based on MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Products

Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability

Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West-Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West-Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation↗

DOE OSTI2020

From pools to flow: The PROMISE framework for new insights on soil carbon cycling in a changing world

Soils represent the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon, and the balance between soil organic carbon (SOC) formation and loss will drive powerful carbon-climate feedbacks over the coming century. To date, efforts to predict SOC dynamics have rested on pool-based models, which assume classes of SOC with internally homogenous physicochemical properties. However, emerging evidence suggests that soil carbon turnover is not dominantly controlled by the chemistry of carbon inputs, but rather by restrictions on microbial access to organic matter in the spatially heterogeneous soil environment. The dynamic processes that control the physicochemical protection of carbon translate poorly to pool-based SOC models; as a result, we are challenged to mechanistically predict how environmental change will impact movement of carbon between soils and the atmosphere. In this study, we propose a novel conceptual framework to explore controls on belowground carbon cycling: Probabilistic Representation of Organic Matter Interactions within the Soil Environment (PROMISE). In contrast to traditional model frameworks, PROMISE does not attempt to define carbon pools united by common thermodynamic or functional attributes. Rather, the PROMISE concept considers how SOC cycling rates are governed by the stochastic processes that influence the proximity between microbial decomposers and organic matter, with emphasis on their physical location in the soil matrix. We illustrate the applications of this framework with a new biogeochemical simulation model that traces the fate of individual carbon atoms as they interact with their environment, undergoing biochemical transformations and moving through the soil pore space. We also discuss how the PROMISE framework reshapes dialogue around issues related to SOC management in a changing world. We intend the PROMISE framework to spur the development of new hypotheses, analytical tools, and model structures across disciplines that will illuminate mechanistic controls on the flow of carbon between plant, soil, and atmospheric pools.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make “Functional Types” more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet, Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of "Plant Functional Types" (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, that is, to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. Here we review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages ("Lineage Functional Types") will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗