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At least 991 records · Page 55

Wootz: a compiler-based framework for fast CNN pruning via composability

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are widely used for Deep Learning tasks. CNN pruning is an important method to adapt a large CNN model trained on general datasets to fit a more specialized task or a smaller device. The key challenge is on deciding which filters to remove in order to maximize the quality of the pruned networks while satisfying the constraints. It is time-consuming due to the enormous configuration space and the slowness of CNN training.The problem has drawn many efforts from the machine learning field, which try to reduce the set of network configurations to explore. This work tackles the problem distinctively from a programming systems perspective, trying to speed up the evaluations of the remaining configurations through computation reuse via a compiler-based framework. We empirically uncover the existence of composability in the training of a collection of pruned CNN models, and point out the opportunities for computation reuse. We then propose composability-based CNN pruning, and design a compression-based algorithm to efficiently identify the set of CNN layers to pre-train for maximizing their reuse benefits in CNN pruning. We further develop a compiler-based framework named Wootz, which, for an arbitrary CNN, automatically generates code that builds a Teacher-Student scheme to materialize composability-based pruning. Experiments show that network pruning enabled by Wootz shortens the state-of-art pruning process by up to 186X while producing significantly better pruning results.

Guan, Hui↗

Nuclear Data Uncertainty Quantification for Adjoint-Weighted Quantities via XGPT in Monte Carlo Codes

The Total Monte Carlo method (TMC) is an innovative approach to nuclear data uncertainty propagation. In TMC, a large number of independent ENDF files are randomly generated starting from nuclear models parameters and their uncertainties. These files are then processed with NJOY or similar codes to produce a set of formatted continuous-energy cross sections (i.e., ACE files), and independent Monte Carlo neutron transport simulations are run with these different ACE files as input. Finally the distributions of the considered response functions are obtained directly from the results of the Monte Carlo runs. Despite several improvements of the TMC method, this approach is often considered an inefficient way of propagating nuclear data uncertainties, as it requires several computationally expensive Monte Carlo runs. Covariance-based methods present important advantages for several applications, especially when different sources of uncertainties are to be investigated. For this reason, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification capabilities are being implemented in several Monte Carlo neutron transport codes. On the other hand, the fact that no artificial multi-group covariance matrices are required and that higher moments of the responses distributions can be easily obtained, are definite advantages of the TMC method. In an effort to overcome the limitations of both approaches, a new method, called eXtended Generalized Perturbation Theory (XGPT) is under development. When performing nuclear data uncertainty propagation, such XGPT approach does not require generating discretized (i.e., multigroup) covariance matrices, and allows to estimate higher moments of the response probability distributions, via linear perturbation theory. One of the promising applications of the XGPT method involves its adoption in conjunction with the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) of nuclear data, to build a Reduced Order Model (ROM) for the approximation of thousands of independent TMC results in a single criticality source simulation. In the present work, this approach is employed for the first time to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in nuclear data on adjoint-weighted quantities. The method has been implemented in an extended version of the Serpent-2.1.24 Monte Carlo code and is demonstrated on two fast spectrum benchmarks, focusing on {sup 208}Pb nuclear data. A new method for propagating nuclear data uncertainties in criticality source Monte Carlo simulations has been developed. This eXtended Generalized Perturbation Theory (XGPT) approach allows to accurately reproduce reference Total Monte Carlo (TMC) uncertainty estimates in a single criticality source simulation. The present work aims to demonstrate that the proposed method can quantify nuclear data uncertainty based on adjoint-weighted quantities. The XGPT approach was applied to evaluate the impact of {sup 208}Pb nuclear data uncertainties on the effective prompt neutron lifetime (l{sub eff}) in two fast spectrum systems. The obtained XGPT results show a good agreement with the reference TMC results, obtained from independent Monte Carlo runs with {sup 208}Pb nuclear data from random TENDL-2013 evaluations. The XGPT method, implemented in a extended version of the Serpent Monte Carlo code and adopted along with the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) of the nuclear data, is able to provide an accurate reduced order model to approximate thousands TMC results within a single run, ensuring a large saving in computational requirements. The effect of {sup 208}Pb nuclear data uncertainties appears to be rather large. This is consistent with previous studies that adopted the same input random evaluations data from TENDL. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Mapping Environmental Contaminants at Ray Mine, AZ

Airborne Visible and InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data was collected over Ray Mine as part of a demonstration project for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through the Advanced Measurement Initiative (AMI). The overall goal of AMI is to accelerate adoption and application of advanced measurement technologies for cost effective environmental monitoring. The site was selected to demonstrate the benefit to EPA in using advanced remote sensing technologies for the detection of environmental contaminants due to the mineral extraction industry. The role of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in this pilot study is to provide data as well as performing calibration, data analysis, and validation of the AVIRIS results. EPA is also interested in developing protocols that use commercial software to perform such work on other high priority EPA sites. Reflectance retrieval was performed using outputs generated by the MODTRAN radiative transfer model and field spectra collected for the purpose of calibration. We are presenting advanced applications of the ENVI software package using n-Dimensional Partial Unmixing to identify image-derived endmembers that best match target materials reference spectra from multiple spectral libraries. Upon identification of the image endmembers the Mixture Tuned Match Filter algorithm was applied to map the endmembers within each scene. Using this technique it was possible to map four different mineral classes that are associated with mine generated acid waste.

McCubbin, Ian↗

Pulsar electrodynamics: Relativistic kinetic theory of radiative plasmas--collective phenomena and their radiation

The classical modeling of radiation by accelerated charged particles in pulsars predicts a cutoff in photon energy at around 25 GeV. While this is broadly consistent with observations, the classical treatment is not self-consistent, and cannot be extended to explain the rare high-energy detections of photons in the 100s of GeV range. In this paper we revisit the theoretical modeling of high-energy radiation processes in very strong electromagnetic fields, in the context of both single particles and collective plasmas. There are no classical constraints on this description. We find that there is indeed a critical energy of around 50 GeV that arises naturally in this self-consistent treatment, but rather than being a cutoff, this critical energy signals a transition from radiation that is classical to a quasiquantum description, in which the particle is able to radiate almost its total energy in a single event. This new modeling therefore places pulsar radiation processes on a more secure physical basis, and admits the possibility of the production of TeV photons in a self-consistent way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prediction of Long-Term Geochemical Change in Bentonite Based on the Interpretative THMC Model of the FEBEX In Situ Test

Since nuclear energy is crucial in the decarbonization of the energy supply, one hurdle to remove is the handling of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). Disposal of HLW in a deep geological repository has long been deemed a viable permanent option. In the design of a deep geological repository, compacted bentonite is the most commonly proposed buffer material. Predicting the long-term chemical evolution in bentonite, which is important for the safety assessment of a repository, has been challenging because of the complex coupled processes. Models for large-scale tests and predictions based on such models have been some of the best practices for such purposes. An 18-year-long in situ test with two dismantling events provided a unique set of chemical data that allowed for studying chemical changes in bentonite. In this paper, we first developed coupled thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) models to interpret the geochemical data collected in the in situ test and then extended the THMC model to 200 years to make long-term prediction of the geochemical evolution of bentonite. The interpretive coupled THMC model shows that the geochemical profiles were strongly affected by THM processes such as evaporation/condensation, porosity change caused by swelling, permeability change, and the shape of concentration profiles for major cations were largely controlled by transport processes, but concentration levels were regulated by chemical reactions, and the profiles of some species such as pH, bicarbonate, and sulfate were dominated by these reactions. The long-term THMC model showed that heating prolongs the time that bentonite becomes fully saturated in the area close to the heater/canister; however, once the bentonite becomes fully saturated, high concentrations of ions in bentonite near the heater, which was observed in the field test, will disappear; illitization continues for 50 years but will not proceed further.

Zheng, Liange↗

Wind Tunnel Model Design for Sonic Boom Studies of Nozzle Jet Flows with Shock Interactions

NASA and the U.S. aerospace industry are performing studies of supersonic aircraft concepts with low sonic boom pressure signatures. The computational analyses of modern aircraft designs have matured to the point where there is confidence in the prediction of the pressure signature from the front of the vehicle, but uncertainty remains in the aft signatures due to boundary layer and nozzle exhaust jet effects. Wind tunnel testing without inlet and nozzle exhaust jet effects at lower Reynolds numbers than in-flight make it difficult to accurately assess the computational solutions of flight vehicles. A wind tunnel test in the NASA Ames 9- by 7-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel is planned for February 2016 to address the nozzle jet effects on sonic boom. The experiment will provide pressure signatures of test articles that replicate waveforms from aircraft wings, tails, and aft fuselage (deck) components after passing through cold nozzle jet plumes. The data will provide a variety of nozzle plume and shock interactions for comparison with computational results. A large number of high-fidelity numerical simulations of a variety of shock generators were evaluated to define a reduced collection of suitable test models. The computational results of the candidate wind tunnel test models as they evolved are summarized, and pre-test computations of the final designs are provided.

Wind Tunnel↗

Assessing saturation physics explanations of collectivity in small collision systems with the ip-jazma model

Experimental measurements in relativistic collisions of small systems from $p + p$ to $p/d/ ^3He + A$ at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) reveal particle emission patterns that are strikingly similar to those observed in $A + A$ collisions of large nuclei. One explanation of these patterns is the formation of small droplets of quark-gluon plasma (QGP) followed by hydrodynamic evolution. A geometry engineering program was proposed to further investigate these emission patterns, and the experimental data from that program in $p + Au, d + Au, ^3 He + Au$ collisions for elliptic and triangular anisotropy coefficients $v_2$ and $v_3$ follow the pattern predicted by hydrodynamic calculations [C. Aidala et al. (PHENIX Collaboration), Nat. Phys. 15, 214 (2019)]. One alternative approach, referred to as initial-state correlations, suggests that for small systems the patterns observed in the final-state hadrons are encoded at the earliest moments of the collision and therefore require no final-state parton scattering or hydrodynamic evolution. Recently, new calculations using only initial-state correlations, in the dilute-dense approximation of gluon saturation physics, reported striking agreement with the $v_2$ patterns observed in $p/d/ ^3He + Au$ data at RHIC [M. Mace, V. V. Skokov, P. Tribedy, and R. Venugopalan, Phys. Rev. Lett. 121, 052301 (2018)]. The results reported by Mace, Skokov, Tribedy and Venugopalan (MSTV) are counterintuitive and thus we aim here to reproduce some of the basic features of these calculations. In this first investigation, we provide a description of our publicly available model, ip-jazma, and investigate its implications for saturation scales, multiplicity distributions, and eccentricities, reserving for later work the analysis of momentum spectra and azimuthal anisotropies. We find that our implementation of the saturation physics model reproduces the results of the MSTV calculation of the multiplicity distribution in $d + Au$ collisions at RHIC. However, additional aspects of studies, together with existing data, call into question some of the essential elements reported by MSTV. Resolution of these issues will require further developments of ip-jazma, in order to determine if it can replicate the qualitative agreement with the $v_2$ reported by MSTV. Both the work reported here and future studies will establish which features in the experimental data are uniquely attributable to the color glass condensate description.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Constraints on cosmological models from strong gravitational lensing systems

Strong lensing has developed into an important astrophysical tool for probing both cosmology and galaxies (their structure, formation, and evolution). Using the gravitational lensing theory and cluster mass distribution model, we try to collect a relatively complete observational data concerning the Hubble constant independent ratio between two angular diameter distances D{sub ds}/D{sub s} from various large systematic gravitational lens surveys and lensing by galaxy clusters combined with X-ray observations, and check the possibility to use it in the future as complementary to other cosmological probes. On one hand, strongly gravitationally lensed quasar-galaxy systems create such a new opportunity by combining stellar kinematics (central velocity dispersion measurements) with lensing geometry (Einstein radius determination from position of images). We apply such a method to a combined gravitational lens data set including 70 data points from Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) and Lens Structure and Dynamics survey (LSD). On the other hand, a new sample of 10 lensing galaxy clusters with redshifts ranging from 0.1 to 0.6 carefully selected from strong gravitational lensing systems with both X-ray satellite observations and optical giant luminous arcs, is also used to constrain three dark energy models (ΛCDM, constant w and CPL) under a flat universe assumption. For the full sample (n = 80) and the restricted sample (n = 46) including 36 two-image lenses and 10 strong lensing arcs, we obtain relatively good fitting values of basic cosmological parameters, which generally agree with the results already known in the literature. This results encourages further development of this method and its use on larger samples obtained in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating Differences Among Crop Models in Simulating Soybean in-Season Growth

Crop models are useful tools for simulating agricultural systems that require continued model development and testing to increase their robustness and improve how they describe our current understanding of processes. Coordinated and “blind” evaluation of multiple models using same protocols and experimental datasets provides unique opportunities to further improve models and enhance their reliability. For soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.], there has been limited coordinated multi-model evaluations for the simulation of in-season plant growth dynamics. We evaluated ten dynamic soybean crop models for their simulation of in-season plant growth using data from five experiments conducted in Argentina, Brazil, France, and USA. We evaluated models after a Blind (using only phenology data) and a Full calibration (with in-season and end-of-season variables). Calibration reduced model uncertainty by reducing standard bias for the simulation of in-season variables (biomass, leaf, pod, and stem weights, and leaf area index, LAI). However, we found that most models had difficulty in reproducing leaf growth dynamics, with normalized root mean squared error (nRMSE) of 56% for leaf weight and 43% for LAI (across locations and models after Full calibration). Models with different levels of complexity and experience were capable of simulating final seed yield at maturity with reasonable accuracy (nRMSE of 8–31% after Full calibration). However, the nRMSE for pod weight (of 17–64% after Full calibration) was two-fold larger than that of seed yield. Moreover, the models differed in how they simulated timing from sowing to beginning seed growth (47–93 days) and effective seed filling period (18–54 days), owing to model structural differences in defining the reproductive developmental stages. Overall, we identified the following processes that can benefit from further model improvement: leaf expansion and senescence, reproductive phenology, and partitioning to reproductive growth. Simulation of pod wall tissue and individual seed cohorts is another aspect that many models currently lack. Model improvement can benefit from high-temporal resolution experimental datasets that concurrently account for phenology, plant growth, and partitioning. Further, we recommend collecting reproductive phenology in the field consistent with actual dry matter allocation to organs in the models and collecting multiple observations of seed and pod weight to aid model improvement for simulation of seed growth and yield formation.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗

Graph neural networks for CO 2 solubility predictions in Deep Eutectic Solvents

Deep Eutectic Solvents (DESs) are a promising class of solvents for CO 2 capture. DESs are complex mixtures that can be designed to optimize CO solubility and overall capture process efficiency. However, the vast design landscape of DES mixtures makes experimental investigation prohibitive; as such, there is a need for computational models that can quickly and efficiently navigate the design space and inform data collection efforts. In this work, we propose Graph Neural Network (GNN) models for predicting CO 2 solubility for DESs; the GNN leverages a mixture graph representation that captures the molecular structure of the DES components as well as their intermolecular interactions. Here, we compare the GNN framework against alternative architectures (neural networks, graph convolution networks, and random forests) and data representations (molecular fingerprints, sigma profiles, and graphs). We show that the proposed approach offers superior predictive performance; specifically, we show that solubility can be predicted reliably directly from molecular structure (without the need of using sigma profiles as proposed in previous studies). This result is important, as obtaining sigma profiles requires expensive density functional theory computations. We also explored the ability of GNNs to predict solubility for new DES mixtures and operating conditions. We found that the model extrapolates across temperature reliably. However, we also found deficiencies in the ability of the model to predict solubility for DES mixtures, pressures, and molar ratio not included in the training sets; we show that this is due to an inherent lack of chemical diversity in datasets available in the literature. The proposed computational capabilities can thus help navigate the design space of DES and inform data collection efforts. Our models, data, and benchmarks are shared as Python code implemented in Jupyter notebooks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nuclear Data Matters - The obvious case of a bad mixing ratio for 58 Co

We present results of modeled cross sections for neutron- and proton-induced reactions leading to the final product nucleus 58 Co. In each case the gamma-cascade branching ratios given in the ENSDF database circa 2014 predict modeled nuclear cross sections leading to the ground and first excited metastable state that are incompatible with measured cross sections found in the NNDC experimental cross section database EXFOR. We show that exploring the uncertainty in the mixing ratio used to calculate the gamma-cascade branching ratios for the 53.15 keV 2 nd excited state leads to changes in the predicted partial cross sections by amounts that give good agreement with measured data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Metric Ranking of Invariant Networks with Belief Propagation

The management of large-scale distributed information systems relies on the effective use and modeling of monitoring data collected at various points in the distributed information systems. A promising approach is to discover invariant relationships among the monitoring data and generate invariant networks, where a node is a monitoring data source (metric) and a link indicates an invariant relationship between two monitoring data. Such an invariant network representation can help system experts to localize and diagnose the system faults by examining those broken invariant relationships and their related metrics, because system faults usually propagate among the monitoring data and eventually lead to some broken invariant relationships. However, at one time, there are usually a lot of broken links (invariant relationships) within an invariant network. Without proper guidance, it is difficult for system experts to manually inspect this large number of broken links. Thus, a critical challenge is how to effectively and efficiently rank metrics (nodes) of invariant networks according to the anomaly levels of metrics. The ranked list of metrics will provide system experts with useful guidance for them to localize and diagnose the system faults. To this end, we propose to model the nodes and the broken links as a Markov Random Field (MRF), and develop an iteration algorithm to infer the anomaly of each node based on belief propagation (BP). Finally, we validate the proposed algorithm on both realworld and synthetic data sets to illustrate its effectiveness.

Tao, Changxia↗

Stringent upper limit on the direct 3α decay of the Hoyle state in 12 C

We investigate an implication of the most recent observation of a second J π = 2 + state in 12 C, which was measured using the 12 C(γ,α) 8 Be (g.s.) reaction. In addition to the dissociation of 12 C to an α-particle and 8 Be in its ground state, a small fraction of events (2%) were identified as direct decays and decays to excited states in 8 Be. This allowed a limit on the direct 3α partial decay width to be determined as Γ 3α < 32(4) keV. Since this 2 + state is predicted by all theoretical models to be a collective excitation of the Hoyle state, the 3α partial width of the Hoyle state is calculable from the ratio of 3α decay penetrabilities of the Hoyle and 2 + states. Here, this was calculated by using the semiclassical Wenzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach and we deduce a stringent upper limit for the direct decay branching ratio of the Hoyle state of Γ 3α /Γ < 5.7 × 10 –6 , over an order of magnitude lower than previously reported. This result places the direct measurement of this rare decay mode beyond current experimental capabilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Continental Scale Aerosol Optical Properties Over East Asia as Measured by Aeronet and Comparison to Satellite and Modeled Results

The AERONET program has operated in E. Asia since 1995 providing time continuous and time averaged ground-based column-integrated aerosol optical properties in a variety of aerosol regimes In the last four years the distribution has greatly increased in Siberia, China, SE Asia and India in particular. Commensurate with that, significant improvement in data processing algorithms (Version 2.0) and access to ancillary data products through the WWW have become available to the scientific community. At this writing the following distribution represents E and S. Asia: 5 sites operate in Siberia (2 years), 1 in Mongolia (9 years), 3 in Korea (3 to 6 years), 3 in Japan (2 to 7 years), China 11 (6 to 0 years), Taiwan 4 (7 to 2 yrs), Viet Nam 2 (4 years), Thailand 2 to 5 (4 years), and Singapore 1 (4 months), India 1 to 3 (7 to 1 years), Pakistan 2 (1 year), and UAE 3 (3 years). An analysis of the aerosol optical depth at 500 nm using annual average quality assured AERONET data (pre 2006) was used to estimate the mean annual aerosol loading by continent, sub continent and ocean. The individual site data were assumed representative of regional aerosol loading and aggregated to the sub-continental, continental and oceanic areas and presented. This analysis will be updated with more recent data with particular emphasis on seasonal results for Asia and the addition of single scattering albedo retrievals. The ground based results will be compared to MODIS collection 5 results and model estimates for E. Asia using the AERONET Synergy Tool.

Holben, B. N.↗

The Effects of Atmospheric Models on the Estimation of Infrasonic Source Functions at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert infrasound signals for an equivalent seismoacoustic source function using different atmospheric models to produce the necessary Green’s functions. The infrasound signals were produced by a series of underground chemical explosions as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE). In a previous study, we inverted the infrasound data using so-called predictive atmospheric models, which were based on historic, regional-scaled, publicly available weather observations interpolated onto a 3D grid. For the work presented here, we invert the same infrasound data, but using atmospheric models based on weather data collected in a time window that includes the approximate time of the explosion experiments, which we term postdictive models. We build two versions of the postdictive models for each SPE event: one that is based solely on the regional scaled observations, and one that is based on both regional scaled observations combined with on-site observations obtained by a weather sonde released at the time of the SPE. We then invert the observed data set three times, once for each atmospheric model type. We find that the estimated seismoacoustic source functions are relatively similar in waveform shape regardless of which atmospheric model that we used to construct the Green’s functions. However, we find that the amplitude of the estimated source functions is systematically dependent on the atmospheric model type: using the predictive atmospheric models to invert the data generally yields estimated source functions that are larger in amplitude than those estimated using the postdictive models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing an Automated Uncertainty Quantification Tool to Improve Watershed-Scale Predictions of Water and Nutrient Cycling

Managing the flow of water, nutrients, and contaminants in watersheds is vital to addressing pressing issues related to water scarcity, access to clean drinking water, energy production, resilience to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, and ecological restoration. Decisions about the management of watersheds critically depend on the accuracy with which the flow of water and chemicals through the watershed can be predicted by computer models. Prediction uncertainty can be reduced by matching the model to data, which are collected in the field at great expense. The contribution of watershed characterization data to reducing uncertainty of relevant model predictions can be evaluated in a so-called data-worth analysis, which provides transparent, quantitative metrics about a data set’s value for the support of relevant watershed management objectives. To achieve this goal, we developed a software package that implements the data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. The purpose of the proposed data-worth analysis is to help decision-makers allocate resources for watershed characterization such that the uncertainty in model predictions can be significantly reduced, which leads to better, more effective management decisions. At the same time, watershed characterization costs can be reduced. The specific technical objectives of this SBIR/STTR Phase II project were to develop a framework and associated software toolsets that implement the uncertainty quantification and data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. This goal was achieved by (A) developing a user-friendly, robust software package that is accessible to a wide audience, including watershed managers, policy-makers, and public stakeholders; (B) by demonstrating application of the prototype on several use cases that are representative of complex watershed management challenges spanning a range of scales and that consider different open-source, DOE-based codes and other modeling platforms; and (C) by gathering information about the needs and requirements from potential users to help guide future developments, ensuring that the final product will be commercially viable. The developed software consists of a graphical user interface that guides the user through a sequence of analysis steps, supported by toolsets that leverage state-of-the-art computational simulation-optimization capabilities. A prototype of the software runs on multiple platforms (PC, Mac, multi-processor Linux environment), is linked to diverse watershed simulators (e.g., ECOSYS, TOUGH2, TOUGHREACT, Amanzi-ATS), performs multiple analysis tasks (predictive simulations, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, automatic parameter estimation, and data-worth analysis, multicomponent geothermometry), and is readily extensible to include external simulators and analysis tools. The software is being commercialized and will be continually updated to address user needs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stratospheric Sulfuric Acid and Black Carbon Aerosol Measured During POLARIS and its Role in Ozone Chemistry

Stratospheric aerosol can affect the environment in three ways. Sulfuric acid aerosol have been shown to act as sites for the reduction of reactive nitrogen and chlorine and as condensation sites to form Polar Stratospheric Clouds, under very cold conditions, which facilitate ozone depletion. Recently, modeling studies have suggested a link between BCA (Black Carbon Aerosol) and ozone chemistry. These studies suggest that HNO3, NO2, and O3 may be reduced heterogeneously on BCA particles. The ozone reaction converts ozone to oxygen molecules, while HNO3 and NO2 react to form NOx. Finally, a buildup of BCA could reduce the single-scatter albedo of aerosol below a value of 0.98, a critical value that has been postulated to change the effect of stratospheric aerosol from cooling to warming. Correlations between measured BCA amounts and aircraft usage have been reported. Attempts to link BCA to ozone chemistry and other stratospheric processes have been hindered by questions concerning the amount of BCA that exists in the stratosphere, the magnitude of reaction probabilities, and the scarcity of BCA measurements. The Ames Wire Impactors (AWI) participated in POLARIS as part of the complement of experiments on the NASA ER-2. One of our main objectives was to determine the amount of aerosol surface area, particularly BCA, available for reaction with stratospheric constituents and assess if possible, the importance of these reactions. The AWI collects aerosol and BCA particles on thin Palladium wires that are exposed to the ambient air in a controlled manner. The samples are returned to the laboratory for subsequent analysis. The product of the AWI analysis is the size, surface area, and volume distributions, morphology and elemental composition of aerosol and BCA. This paper presents results from our experiments during POLARIS and puts these measurements in the context of POLARIS and other missions in which we have participated. It describes modifications to the AWI data analysis procedures in which the collection of BCA is modeled as a fractal aggregate. The new analysis results in an increase in BCA surface area of approximately 24 and an increase in mass of 7-10 from the previous method. For the current study, BCA surface area is used in computer models that attempt to predict measured NOx/NOy ratios and O3 depletion rates. Inclusion of the HNO3 reaction with BCA in one model tends to improve the agreement of calculated to measured NOx/NOy ratio. However, it was found that these trends are viable only if the reactions are catalytic.

Strawa, Anthony W.↗

Simulating Forest Dynamics of Lowland Rainforests in Eastern Madagascar

Ecological modeling and forecasting are essential tools for the understanding of complex vegetation dynamics. The parametric demands of some of these models are often lacking or scant for threatened ecosystems, particularly in diverse tropical ecosystems. One such ecosystem and also one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, Madagascar's lowland rainforests, have disappeared at an alarming rate. The processes that drive tree species growth and distribution remain as poorly understood as the species themselves. We investigated the application of the process-based individual-based FORMIND model to successfully simulate a Madagascar lowland rainforest using previously collected multi-year forest inventory plot data. We inspected the model's ability to characterize growth and species abundance distributions over the study site, and then validated the model with an independently collected forest-inventory dataset from another lowland rainforest in eastern Madagascar. Following a comparative analysis using inventory data from the two study sites, we found that FORMIND accurately captures the structure and biomass of the study forest, with r(squared) values of 0.976, 0.895, and 0.995 for 1:1 lines comparing observed and simulated values across all plant functional types for aboveground biomass (tonnes/ha), stem numbers, and basal area (m(squared)/ha), respectively. Further, in validation with a second study forest site, FORMIND also compared well, only slightly over-estimating shade-intermediate species as compared to the study site, and slightly under-representing shade-tolerant species in percentage of total aboveground biomass. As an important application of the FORMIND model, we measured the net ecosystem exchange (NEE, in tons of carbon per hectare per year) for 50 ha of simulated forest over a 1000-year run from bare ground. We found that NEE values ranged between 1 and -1 t Cha(exp -1)year(exp -1), consequently the study forest can be considered as a net neutral or a very slight carbon sink ecosystem, after the initial 130 years of growth. Our study found that FORMIND represents a valuable tool toward simulating forest dynamics in the immensely diverse Madagascar rainforests.

Forest Productivity↗