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NASA NTRS2017

Global Climate Forcing from Albedo Change Caused by Large-scale Deforestation and Reforestation: Quantification and Attribution of Geographic Variation

Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remain spoorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of -0.819 W m(exp -2) if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m)exp -2). Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.

Jiao, Tong↗

NASA NTRS2017

How Can CO2 Help Agriculture in the Face of Climate Change?

Humans are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air through CO2 emissions. This is changing the climate, making life harder for many plants in areas that suffer from heat and drought. However, plants need CO2 to grow, and more CO2 can make them grow better. So will plants overall benefit from increased CO2 level or suffer from it? We wanted to test if the positive effect would offset the negative ones. To do so, we used scientific models to calculate future crop production and water use of four important crops all over the world under different scenarios of CO2 emissions and climate change. Our calculations show that although there will be large reductions in crop yield due to climate change over the next century, some crops will still be able to grow well. This is also because crops can grow with less water when CO2 levels are raised.

Delphine, Deryng↗

NASA NTRS2017

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Ensembles↗

NASA NTRS2018

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity from Observations

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2-radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Marvel, Kate↗

NASA NTRS2018

Seasonal and Interannual Assessment of Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Constituents Across the Amazon (2000 - 2015): Insights for Remote Sensing and Climate Analysis

The quantitative assessment of cloud cover and atmospheric constituents improves our ability to exploit the climate feedback into the Amazon basin. In the 21st century, three droughts have already occurred in the Amazonia (e.g. 2005, 2010, 2015), inducing regional changes in the seasonal patterns of atmospheric constituents. In addition to climate, the atmospheric dynamic and attenuation properties are long-term challenges for satellite-based remote sensing of this ecosystem: high cloudiness, abundant water vapor content and biomass burning season. Therefore, while climatology analysis supports the understanding of atmospheric variability and trends, it also offers valuable insights for remote sensing applications. In this study, we evaluate the seasonal and interannual variability of cloud cover and atmospheric constituents (aerosol loading, water vapor and ozone content) over the Amazon basin, with focus on both climate analysis and remote sensing implications. We take the advantage of new atmosphere daily products at 1 km resolution derived from Multi-Angle Implementation for Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. An intercomparison of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and MAIAC aerosol optical depth (AOD) and columnar water vapor (CWV) showed quantitative information with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.81. Our results show distinct regional patterns of cloud cover across the Amazon basin: northwestern region presets a persistent cloud cover (> 80%) throughout the year, while low cloud cover (0-20%) occurs in the southern Amazon during the dry season. The cloud-free period in the southern Amazon is followed by an increase in the atmospheric burden due to fire emissions. Our results reveal that AOD records are changing in terms of area and intensity. During the 2005 and 2010 droughts, the positive AOD anomalies (δ > 0.1) occurred over 39.03% (240.3 million ha) and 27.14% (165.99 million ha) of total basin in the SON season, respectively. In contrast, the recent 2015 drought occurred towards the end of year (October through December) and these anomalies were observed over 23.72% (145 million ha) affecting areas in the central and eastern Amazon unlike previous droughts. The water vapor presents high concentration values (4.0-5.0 g/sq.cm) in the wet season (DJF), while we observed a strong spatial gradient from northwestern to southeastern of the basin during the dry season. In addition, we also found a positive trend of water vapor content ( ∼0.3 g/sq.cm) between 2000 and 2015. The total ozone typically varies between 220 and 270 DU, and it has a seasonal change of ∼25-35 DU from wet season to dry season caused by large emissions of ozone precursors and long-range transport. Finally, while this study contributes to climatological analysis of atmospheric constituents, the remote sensing users can also understand the regional constraints caused by atmospheric attenuation, such as high aerosol loading and cloud obstacles for surface observations.

ozone↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of the Land Surface Reflectance Fundamental Climate Data Record

The land surface reflectance is a fundamental climate data record at the basis of the derivation of other climate data records (Albedo, LAI/Fpar, Vegetation indices) and has been recognized as a key parameter in the understanding of the land-surface-climate processes. In this presentation, we present the validation of the Land surface reflectance used for MODIS, VIIRS, Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2 data. This methodology uses the 6SV Code and data from the AERONET network. The overall accuracy clearly reaches the satellite specifications. To understand how to improve the validation, we developed an exhaustive error budget. Results show an impact of the absorption of aerosol and of the fine mode volume concentration.

Atmospheric correction↗

NASA NTRS2013

Multi-Model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements.We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multimodel mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mg(N)m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new ACCMIP multimodel deposition dataset provides state-of-the-science, consistent and evaluated time slice (spanning 1850-2100) global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Taking Climate Model Evaluation to the Next Level

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Eyring, Veronika↗

NASA NTRS2019

ESD Reviews: Model Dependence in Multi-Model Climate Ensembles: Weighting, Sub-Selection and Out-Of-Sample Testing

The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent estimates; therefore, a range of models allows a better characterisation of the uncertainties in the representation of the climate system than a single model. However, it is known that research groups share literature, ideas for representations of processes, parameterisations, evaluation data sets and even sections of model code. Thus, nominally different models might have similar biases because of similarities in the way they represent a subset of processes, or even be near-duplicates of others, weakening the assumption that they constitute independent estimates. If there are near-replicates of some models, then treating all models equally is likely to bias the inferences made using these ensembles. The challenge is to establish the degree to which this might be true for any given application. While this issue is recognised by many in the community, quantifying and accounting for model dependence in anything other than an ad-hoc way is challenging. Here we present a synthesis of the range of disparate attempts to define, quantify and address model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles in a common conceptual framework, and provide guidance on how users can test the efficacy of approaches that move beyond the equally weighted ensemble. In the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), several new models that are closely related to existing models are anticipated, as well as large ensembles from some models. We argue that quantitatively accounting for dependence in addition to model performance, and thoroughly testing the effectiveness of the approach used will be key to a sound interpretation of the CMIP ensembles in future scientific studies.

Abramowitz, Gab↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Lecture 4: Atmospheric Radiation

The climate system is well known for its great complexity and complex interactions that involve dynamic, thermodynamic, radiative, chemical, biological and human-driven processes. This view of the climate system has emerged from detailed measurements, meticulous record keeping, and theoretical analyses arising from, and made possible by the science and technology revolution that greatly advanced our understanding the role of physical processes that operate in the global climate system. These measurements also show very clearly that the global surface temperature has been rising over the past century, and that this is a consequence of human industrial activity.

Oinas, Valdar↗

NASA NTRS2018

High-Resolution Modeling of the Dust and Water Cycles with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

NASA’s Mars Climate Modeling Center at Ames Research Center is currently undergoing an exciting period of growth in personnel, modeling capabilities, and science productivity. We are transitioning from our legacy Arakawa C-grid finite-difference dynamical core to the NOAA/GFDL cubed-sphere finite-volume dynamical core for simulating the climate of Mars in a global framework. This highly parallelized core is scalable and flexible, which allows for significant improvements in the horizontal and vertical resolutions of our simulations. We have implemented the Ames water ice cloud microphysics package described in Haberle et al. (2018) into this new dynamical core. We will present high-resolution simulations of the dust and water cycles that show that sub-degree horizontal resolution improves the agreement between the vertical distribution of dust and water ice and observations. In particular, both water ice clouds and dust are transported to higher altitudes due to stronger topographic circulations at high resolution. Preliminary results suggest that high-resolution global modeling is needed to properly capture critical features of the dust and water cycles, and thus the current Mars climate.

Kahre, Melinda A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Disentangling Climate and Disturbance Effects on Regional Vegetation Greening Trends

Productivity of northern latitude forests is an important driver of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is already responding to climate change. Studies ofthe satellite-derived Normalized Difference VegetationIndex (NDVI) for northern latitudes indicate recent changes in plant productivity. These detected greening and browning trends are often attributedto a lengthening of the growing season from warming temperatures. Yet, disturbance-recovery dynamics are strong drivers of productivity and can mask direct effects of climate change. Here, we analyze 1-km resolution NDVI data from 1989to 2014 for the northern latitude forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem for changes in plant productivity to address the following questions:(1) To what degree has greening taken place in the GYE over the past three decades? and (2) What is the relative importance of disturbance and climate in explaining NDVI trends? We found that the spatial extents of statistically significant productivity trends were limited to local greening and browning areas. Disturbance history, predominately fire disturbance, was a major driver of these detected NDVI trends. After accounting for fire-,insect-, and human-caused disturbances, increasing productivity trends remained. Productivity of northern latitude forests is generally considered temperature-limited; yet, we found that precipitation was a key driver of greening in the GYE.

Disturbance↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and AgMIP Frameworks for Foresight

Agricultural systems are currently undergoing rapid shifts owing to socioeconomic development, technological change, population growth, economic opportunity, evolving demand for commodities, and the need for sustainability amid global environmental change. It is not sufficient to maintain current harvest levels; rather, there is a need to rapidly increase production in light of a population growing to nearly 10 billion by mid-century and to more than 11 billion by 2100 (FAO, 2016; UN, 2016; Popkin et al., 2012). Current and future agricultural systems are additionally burdened by human-caused climate change, the result of accumulating greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, ecological destruction, and land use changes that have altered the chemical composition of Earth’s atmosphere and trapped energy in the Earth system (IPCC, 2013; Porter et al., 2014). This increased energy has already raised average surface temperatures by approximately 1 degree Centigrade (GISTEMP Team, 2017; Hansen et al., 2010), leading early on to the term “global warming,” but this phenomenon is now more accurately referred to as “climate change” because it also modifies atmospheric circulation, adjusts regional and seasonal precipitation patterns, and shifts the distribution and characteristics of extreme events (Bindoff et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2013). Food and health systems face increasing risk owing to progressive climate change now manifesting itself as more frequent, severe extreme weather events—heat waves, droughts, and floods (IPCC, 2013). Often without warning, weather-related shocks can have catastrophic and reverberating impacts on the increasingly exposed global food system—through production, processing, distribution, retail, disposal, and waste. Simultaneously, malnutrition and ill health are arising from lack of access to nutritious food, exacerbated in crises such as food price spikes or shortages. For some countries, particularly import-dependent low-income countries, weather shocks and price spikes can lead to social unrest, famine, and migration.

Ruane, Alex C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-47 2015 using the National Climate Assessment-Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah Version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125 degreesx0.125 degrees forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p<0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends, and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the Upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 in the West and South; net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/m(exp2)/yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 in the West; U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from West to East. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%; Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, RMSE decreasing only 0.17 to 0.16 W/m(exp 2)/yr, while trend detection increased 2%; NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gaged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Snow depth↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Aeolus Mission Concept, an Innovative Mission to Study the Winds and Climate of Mars

Aeolus is a mission to provide the first set of global, seasonal, and diurnal data to characterize winds and study the climate of Mars. Aeolus measures surface and atmospheric temperatures, aerosol abundances, and Doppler shifts in atmospheric spectral lines. The payload includes a system of four of a new type of miniaturized Spatial Heterodyne Spectrometer (SHS) paired to two orthogonal viewing telescopes that can measure CO2 (daytime absorption) and O2 (day and night emission) lines in the Martian atmosphere. The Thermal Limb Sounder (TLS) instrument measures atmospheric temperature profiles and aerosol (H2O ice clouds, dust) profiles, and the Surface Radiometric Sensor Package (SuRSeP) measures the total reflected solar radiance, and surface temperatures down to 140K. These combined spectral and thermal measurements will provide a new understanding of the global energy balance, dust transport processes, and climate cycles in the Martian atmosphere. The mission concept for Aeolus consists of a single sub-100 kg secondary spacecraft in a highly inclined orbit, allowing it to pass over all local times. Aeolus attains global coverage of the surface for a mission duration of one Martian year, to capture climate patterns during each Martian season. This paper gives an overview of the Aeolus payload, spacecraft, and the methodology used to mature the Aeolus mission concept.

Mauro, David↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of CLARA-A2 and ISCCP-H Cloud Cover Climate Data Records over Europe with ECA&D Ground-Based Measurements

Clouds are of high importance for the climate system but they still remain one of its principal uncertainties. Remote sensing techniques applied to satellite observations have assisted tremendously in the creation of long-term and homogeneous data records; however, satellite data sets need to be validated and compared with other data records, especially ground measurements. In the present study, the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of Total Cloud Cover (TCC) from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) Cloud, Albedo And Surface Radiation dataset from AVHRR data—edition 2 (CLARA-A2) and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project H-series (ISCCP-H) is analyzed over Europe. The CLARA-A2 data record has been created using measurements of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument onboard the polar orbiting NOAA and the EUMETSAT MetOp satellites, whereas the ISCCP-H data were produced by a combination of measurements from geostationary meteorological satellites and the AVHRR instrument on the polar orbiting satellites. An intercomparison of the two data records is performed over their common period, 1984 to 2012. In addition, a comparison of the two satellite data records is made against TCC observations at 22 meteorological stations in Europe, from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D). The results indicate generally larger ISCCP-H TCC with respect to the corresponding CLARA-A2 data, in particular in the Mediterranean. Compared to ECA&D data, both satellite datasets reveal a reasonable performance, with overall mean TCC biases of 2.1 and 5.2% for CLARA-A2 and ISCCP-H, respectively. This, along with the higher correlation coefficients between CLARA-A2 and ECA&D TCC, indicates the better performance of CLARA-A2 TCC data.

Tzallas, Vasileios↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Climates of Earth's Next Supercontinent: Effects of Tectonics, Rotation Rate, & Insolation

We investigate two possible deep future Earth climate scenarios using a 3-D GCM, 200 and 250 million years into the future when the next supercontinent phase is expect to take place. We use knowledge of the evolution of plate tectonics, solar luminosity, and rotation rate over this time period. In one scenario, a supercontinent forms at low latitudes. In the other scenario it forms at high northerly latitudes with an Antarctic subcontinent remaining at the south pole. The climates differences between these two scenarios are dramatic, with differences in mean surface temperatures approaching 4 degrees. The fractional habitability (where mean surface temperatures are between 0<T<100C year round) on land surfaces (as opposed to the ocean) is shown to differ up to 40% between the two simulations. We believe these demonstrate that the community needs to consider alternative boundary conditions when simulating Earth-like exoplanetary climates.

tectonics↗

NASA NTRS2020

To What Extent Biomass Burning Aerosols Impact South America Seasonal Climate Predictions?

We applied the Goddard Earth Observing System for subseasonal to seasonal climate prediction to assess the impact of inclusion biomass burning (BB) aerosols over South America (SA) during the austral winter. We also evaluated the model sensitivity to the BB emissions prescription using no emissions, monthly climatological, and daily emissions. Each hindcast consisted of four members running from June to November of each year between 2000 and 2015. Our results indicated that interactive BB aerosols improve the seasonal climate prediction performance over SA. More realistic daily based emissions significantly further improve the performance in comparison with the climatological ones. Therefore, improvements in the BB emissions representation are urged to represent the aerosol impacts on seasonal climate prediction performance adequately.

Julliana L. M. Freire↗