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At least 991 records · Page 55

Automated Rendezvous and Capture in Space: A Technology Assessment

This paper presents the results of a study to assess the technology of automated rendezvous and capture (AR&C) in space. The outline of the paper is as follows: First, the history of manual and automated rendezvous and capture and rendezvous and dock is presented. Next, the need for AR&C in space is reviewed. In light of these, AR&C systems are proposed that meet NASA's future needs, but can be developed in a reasonable amount of time with a reasonable amount of money. Technology plans for developing these systems are presented; cost and schedule are included.

Polites, Michael E.↗

Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approx. = 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approx. = 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves in Universal time (UT) could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels.

Mackerras, D.↗

Spreading Characteristics of Compressible Jets from Nozzles of Various Geometries

The spreading characteristics of jets from several asymmetric nozzles, and a set of rectangular orifices are compared, covering a jet Mach number range of 0.3-2.0. The effect of 'tabs' for a rectangular and a round nozzle is also included in the comparison. Compared to a round jet, the jets from the asymmetric nozzles spread only slightly more at subsonic conditions whereas at supersonic conditions, when 'screech' occurs, they spread much more. The dynamics of the azimuthal vortical structures of the jet, organized and intensified under the screeching condition, are thought to be responsible for the observed effect at supersonic conditions. Curiously, the jet from a 'lobed' nozzle spreads much less at supersonic condition compared to all other cases; this is due to the absence of screech with this nozzle. Screech stages inducing flapping, rather than varicose or helical, flow oscillation cause a more pronounced jet spreading. At subsonic conditions, only a slight increase in jet spreading with the asymmetric nozzles contrasts previous observations by others. The present results show that the spreading of most asymmetric jets is not much different from that of a round jet. This inference is further supported by data from the rectangular orifices. In fact, jets from the orifices with small aspect ratio (AR) exhibit virtually no increase in the spreading. A noticeable increase commences only when AR is larger than about 10. Thus, 'shear layer perimeter stretching', achieved with a larger AR for a given cross-sectional area of the orifice, by itself, proves to be a relatively inefficient mechanism for increasing jet spreading. In contrast, the presence of streamwise vortices or 'natural excitation' can cause a significant increase - effects that might explain the observations in the previous investigations. Thus far, the biggest increase in jet spreading is observed with the tabs. This is true in the subsonic regime, as well as in the supersonic regime, in spite of the fact that screech is eliminated by the tabs. The characteristic spreading of the tabbed jets is explained by the induced motion of the tab-generated streamwise vortex pairs. The tabs, however, incur thrust loss; the flow blockage and loss in thrust coefficient, vis-a-vis the spreading increase, are evaluated for various configurations.

Zaman, K. B. M. Q.↗

Etching of Silicon in HBr Plasmas for High Aspect Ratio Features

Etching in semiconductor processing typically involves using halides because of the relatively fast rates. Bromine containing plasmas can generate high aspect ratio trenches, desirable for DRAM and MEMS applications, with relatively straight sidewalk We present scanning electron microscope images for silicon-etched trenches in a HBr plasma. Using a feature profile simulation, we show that the removal yield parameter, or number of neutrals removed per incident ion due to all processes (sputtering, spontaneous desorption, etc.), dictates the profile shape. We find that the profile becomes pinched off when the removal yield is a constant, with a maximum aspect ratio (AR) of about 5 to 1 (depth to height). When the removal yield decreases with increasing ion angle, the etch rate increases at the comers and the trench bottom broadens. The profiles have ARs of over 9:1 for yields that vary with ion angle. To match the experimentally observed etched time of 250 s for an AR of 9:1 with a trench width of 0.135 microns, we find that the neutral flux must be 3.336 x 10(exp 17)sq cm/s.

Hwang, Helen H.↗

Intermediate Element Abundances In Galaxy Clusters

We present the average abundances of the intermediate elements obtained by performing a stacked analysis of all the galaxy clusters in the archive of the X-ray telescope AKA. We determine the abundances of Fe, Si, S, and Ni as a function of cluster temperature (mass) from 1 - 10 keV, and place strong upper limits on the abundances of Ca and Ar. In general, Si and Ni are overabundant with respect to Fe, while Ar and Ca are very underabundant. The discrepancy between the abundances of Si, S , Ar, and Ca indicate that the alpha-elements do not behave homogeneously as a single group. We show that the abundances of the most well-determined elements Fe, Si, and S in conjunction with recent theoretical supernovae yields do not give a consistent solution for the fraction of material produced by Type Ia and Type II supernovae at any temperature or mass. The general trend is for higher temperature clusters to have more of their metals produced in Type II supernovae than in Type Ias. The inconsistency of our results with abundances in the Milky Way indicate that spiral galaxies are not the dominant metal contributors to the intracluster medium (ICM). The pattern of elemental abundances requires an additional source of metals beyond standard SNIa and SNII enrichment. The properties of this new source are well matched to those of Type II supernovae with very massive, metal-poor progenitor stars. These results are consistent with a significant fraction of the ICM metals produced by an early generation of population III stars.

White, Nicholas E.↗

Prediction of muscle performance during dynamic repetitive movement

BACKGROUND: During long-duration spaceflight, astronauts experience progressive muscle atrophy and often perform strenuous extravehicular activities. Post-flight, there is a lengthy recovery period with an increased risk for injury. Currently, there is a critical need for an enabling tool to optimize muscle performance and to minimize the risk of injury to astronauts while on-orbit and during post-flight recovery. Consequently, these studies were performed to develop a method to address this need. METHODS: Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure at 65% of their upper torso weight using a Lordex spinal machine. Surface electromyography (SEMG) data was collected from the erector spinae back muscle. The SEMG data was evaluated using a 5th order autoregressive (AR) model and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The best predictor found was an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, with r = 0.75 and p = 0.03. This parameter can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. CONCLUSION: A method for predicting human muscle performance early during dynamic repetitive exercise was developed. The capability to predict performance to failure has many potential applications to the space program including evaluating countermeasure effectiveness on-orbit, optimizing post-flight recovery, and potential future real-time monitoring capability during extravehicular activity.

Physical Endurance/physiology↗

Doppler echo evaluation of pulmonary venous-left atrial pressure gradients: human and numerical model studies

The simplified Bernoulli equation relates fluid convective energy derived from flow velocities to a pressure gradient and is commonly used in clinical echocardiography to determine pressure differences across stenotic orifices. Its application to pulmonary venous flow has not been described in humans. Twelve patients undergoing cardiac surgery had simultaneous high-fidelity pulmonary venous and left atrial pressure measurements and pulmonary venous pulsed Doppler echocardiography performed. Convective gradients for the systolic (S), diastolic (D), and atrial reversal (AR) phases of pulmonary venous flow were determined using the simplified Bernoulli equation and correlated with measured actual pressure differences. A linear relationship was observed between the convective (y) and actual (x) pressure differences for the S (y = 0.23x + 0.0074, r = 0.82) and D (y = 0.22x + 0.092, r = 0.81) waves, but not for the AR wave (y = 0. 030x + 0.13, r = 0.10). Numerical modeling resulted in similar slopes for the S (y = 0.200x - 0.127, r = 0.97), D (y = 0.247x - 0. 354, r = 0.99), and AR (y = 0.087x - 0.083, r = 0.96) waves. Consistent with numerical modeling, the convective term strongly correlates with but significantly underestimates actual gradient because of large inertial forces.

Non-NASA Center↗

Approximate scaling properties of RNA free energy landscapes

RNA free energy landscapes are analysed by means of "time-series" that are obtained from random walks restricted to excursion sets. The power spectra, the scaling of the jump size distribution, and the scaling of the curve length measured with different yard stick lengths are used to describe the structure of these "time series". Although they are stationary by construction, we find that their local behavior is consistent with both AR(1) and self-affine processes. Random walks confined to excursion sets (i.e., with the restriction that the fitness value exceeds a certain threshold at each step) exhibit essentially the same statistics as free random walks. We find that an AR(1) time series is in general approximately self-affine on timescales up to approximately the correlation length. We present an empirical relation between the correlation parameter rho of the AR(1) model and the exponents characterizing self-affinity.

Signal Processing, Computer-Assisted↗

Distribution and Abundance of Mars' Atmospheric Argon

One and one half Mars years (MY 26 and 27) of atmospheric Argon measurements are described and studied in the context of understanding how Argon, a minor constituent of Mars atmosphere that does not condense at Mars temperatures, can be used to study martian circulation and dynamics. Argon data are from the 2001 Mars Odyssey Gamma Subsystem (GS) of the suite of three instruments comprising the Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS). A comprehensive data analysis including gamma-ray production and attenuation by the atmosphere is included. Of particular interest is the enhanced abundance of Ar over the observed Ar abundance at lower latitudes at south (up to a factor of 10) and north (up to a factor of 4) polar regions during winter. Calibration of the measurements to actual Ar abundance is possible because GS measurements cover the same latitude and season as measurements made by the gas chromatograph mass spectrometer (GCMS) on Viking Landers 1 and 2 (VL1 and VL2). [2].

Sprague, A. L.↗

Improving Robotic Operator Performance Using Augmented Reality

The Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM) is a two-armed robot that functions as an extension to the end effector of the Space Station Robotics Manipulator System (SSRMS), currently in use on the International Space Station (ISS). Crew training for the SPDM is accomplished using a robotic hardware simulator, which performs most of SPDM functions under normal static Earth gravitational forces. Both the simulator and SPDM are controlled from a standard robotic workstation using a laptop for the user interface and three monitors for camera views. Most operations anticipated for the SPDM involve the manipulation, insertion, and removal of any of several types of Orbital Replaceable Unit (ORU), modules which control various ISS functions. Alignment tolerances for insertion of the ORU into its receptacle are 0.25 inch and 0.5 degree from nominal values. The pre-insertion alignment task must be performed within these tolerances by using available video camera views of the intrinsic features of the ORU and receptacle, without special registration markings. Since optimum camera views may not be available, and dynamic orbital lighting conditions may limit periods of viewing, a successful ORU insertion operation may require an extended period of time. This study explored the feasibility of using augmented reality (AR) to assist SPDM operations. Geometric graphical symbols were overlaid on one of the workstation monitors to afford cues to assist the operator in attaining adequate pre-insertion ORU alignment. Twelve skilled subjects performed eight ORU insertion tasks using the simulator with and without the AR symbols in a repeated measures experimental design. Results indicated that using the AR symbols reduced pre-insertion alignment error for all subjects and reduced the time to complete pre-insertion alignment for most subjects.

Maida, James C.↗

Hydra Rendezvous and Docking Sensor

The U.S. technology to support a CEV AR&D activity is mature and was developed by NASA and supporting industry during an extensive research and development program conducted during the 1990's and early 2000 time frame at the Marshall Space Flight Center. Development and demonstration of a rendezvous/docking sensor was identified early in the AR&D Program as the critical enabling technology that allows automated proxin~ity operations and docking. A first generation rendezvous/docking sensor, the Video Guidance Sensor (VGS) was developed and successfully flown on STS 87 and again on STS 95, proving the concept of a video-based sensor. Advances in both video and signal processing technologies and the lessons learned from the two successful flight experiments provided a baseline for the development of a new generation of video based rendezvous/docking sensor. The Advanced Video Guidance Sensor (AVGS) has greatly increased performance and additional capability for longer-range operation. A Demonstration Automatic Rendezvous Technology (DART) flight experiment was flown in April 2005 using AVGS as the primary proximity operations sensor. Because of the absence of a docking mechanism on the target satellite, this mission did not demonstrate the ability of the sensor to co~ltrold ocking. Mission results indicate that the rendezvous sensor operated successfully in "spot mode" (2 km acquisition of the target, bearing data only) but was never commanded to "acquire and track" the docking target. Parts obsolescence issues prevent the construction of current design AVGS units to support the NASA Exploration initiative. This flight proven AR&D technology is being modularized and upgraded with additional capabilities through the Hydra project at the Marshall Space Flight Center. Hydra brings a unique engineering approach and sensor architecture to the table, to solve the continuing issues of parts obsolescence and multiple sensor integration. This paper presents an approach to sensor hardware trades, to address the needs of future vehicles that may rendezvous and dock with the International Space Station (ISS). It will also discuss approaches for upgrading AVGS to address parts obsolescence, and concepts for modularizing the sensor to provide configuration flexibility for multiple vehicle applications. Options for complementary sensors to be integrated into the multi-head Hydra system will also be presented. Complementary sensor options include ULTOR, a digital image correlator system that could provide relative six-degree-of-freedom information independently from AVGS, and time-of-flight sensors, which determine the range between vehicles by timing pulses that travel from the sensor to the target and back. Common targets and integrated targets, suitable for use with the multi-sensor options in Hydra, will also be addressed.

Roe, Fred↗

Integrated Docking Simulation and Testing with the Johnson Space Center Six-Degree of Freedom Dynamic Test System

The Exploration Systems Architecture defines missions that require rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking (RPOD) of two spacecraft both in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and in Low Lunar Orbit (LLO). Uncrewed spacecraft must perform automated and/or autonomous rendezvous, proximity operations and docking operations (commonly known as Automated Rendezvous and Docking, AR&D). The crewed versions may also perform AR&D, possibly with a different level of automation and/or autonomy, and must also provide the crew with relative navigation information for manual piloting. The capabilities of the RPOD sensors are critical to the success of the Constellation Program; this is carried as one of the CEV Project top risks. The Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) AR&D Sensor Technology Project seeks to reduce this risk by increasing technology maturation of selected relative navigation sensor technologies through testing and simulation. One of the project activities is a series of "pathfinder" testing and simulation activities to integrate relative navigation sensors with the Johnson Space Center Six-Degree-of-Freedom Test System (SDTS). The SDTS will be the primary testing location for the Orion spacecraft s Low Impact Docking System (LIDS). Project team members have integrated the Orion simulation with the SDTS computer system so that real-time closed loop testing can be performed with relative navigation sensors and the docking system in the loop during docking and undocking scenarios. Two relative navigation sensors are being used as part of a "pathfinder" activity in order to pave the way for future testing with the actual Orion sensors. This paper describes the test configuration and test results.

Mitchell, Jennifer D.↗

Multi-sensor Testing for Automated Rendezvous and Docking

During the past two years, many sensors have been tested in an open-loop fashion in the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Flight Robotics Laboratory (FRL) to both determine their suitability for use in Automated Rendezvous and Docking (AR&D) systems and to ensure the test facility is prepared for future multi-sensor testing. The primary focus of this work was in support of the CEV AR&D system, because the AR&D sensor technology area was identified as one of the top risks in the program. In 2006, four different sensors were tested individually or in a pair in the MSFC FRL. In 2007, four sensors, two each of two different types, were tested simultaneously. In each set of tests, the target was moved through a series of pre-planned trajectories while the sensor tracked it. In addition, a laser tracker "truth" sensor also measured the target motion. The tests demonstrated the functionality of testing four sensors simultaneously as well as the capabilities (both good and bad) of all of the different sensors tested. This paper outlines the test setup and conditions, briefly describes the facility, summarizes the earlier results of the individual sensor tests, and describes in some detail the results of the four-sensor testing. Post-test analysis includes data fusion by minimum variance estimation and sequential Kalman filtering. This Sensor Technology Project work was funded by NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program.

Howard, Richard T.↗

Multi-Sensor Testing for Automated Rendezvous and Docking Sensor Testing at the Flight Robotics Laboratory

The Exploration Systems Architecture defines missions that require rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking (RPOD) of two spacecraft both in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and in Low Lunar Orbit (LLO). Uncrewed spacecraft must perform automated and/or autonomous rendezvous, proximity operations and docking operations (commonly known as AR&D). The crewed missions may also perform rendezvous and docking operations and may require different levels of automation and/or autonomy, and must provide the crew with relative navigation information for manual piloting. The capabilities of the RPOD sensors are critical to the success of the Exploration Program. NASA has the responsibility to determine whether the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) contractor proposed relative navigation sensor suite will meet the requirements. The relatively low technology readiness level of AR&D relative navigation sensors has been carried as one of the CEV Project's top risks. The AR&D Sensor Technology Project seeks to reduce the risk by the testing and analysis of selected relative navigation sensor technologies through hardware-in-the-loop testing and simulation. These activities will provide the CEV Project information to assess the relative navigation sensors maturity as well as demonstrate test methods and capabilities. The first year of this project focused on a series of"pathfinder" testing tasks to develop the test plans, test facility requirements, trajectories, math model architecture, simulation platform, and processes that will be used to evaluate the Contractor-proposed sensors. Four candidate sensors were used in the first phase of the testing. The second phase of testing used four sensors simultaneously: two Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Advanced Video Guidance Sensors (AVGS), a laser-based video sensor that uses retroreflectors attached to the target vehicle, and two commercial laser range finders. The multi-sensor testing was conducted at MSFC's Flight Robotics Laboratory (FRL) using the FRL's 6-DOF gantry system, called the Dynamic Overhead Target System (DOTS). The target vehicle for "docking" in the laboratory was a mockup that was representative of the proposed CEV docking system, with added retroreflectors for the AVGS. The multi-sensor test configuration used 35 open-loop test trajectories covering three major objectives: (1) sensor characterization trajectories designed to test a wide range of performance parameters; (2) CEV-specific trajectories designed to test performance during CEV-like approach and departure profiles; and (3) sensor characterization tests designed for evaluating sensor performance under more extreme conditions as might be induced during a spacecraft failure or during contingency situations. This paper describes the test development, test facility, test preparations, test execution, and test results of the multi-sensor series of trajectories.

Brewster, L.↗

Multi-Sensor Testing for Automated Rendezvous and Docking Sensor Testing at the Flight Robotics Lab

The Exploration Systems Architecture defines missions that require rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking (RPOD) of two spacecraft both in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and in Low Lunar Orbit (LLO). Uncrewed spacecraft must perform automated and/or autonomous rendezvous, proximity operations and docking operations (commonly known as AR&D). The crewed missions may also perform rendezvous and docking operations and may require different levels of automation and/or autonomy, and must provide the crew with relative navigation information for manual piloting. The capabilities of the RPOD sensors are critical to the success ofthe Exploration Program. NASA has the responsibility to determine whether the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) contractor-proposed relative navigation sensor suite will meet the requirements. The relatively low technology readiness level of AR&D relative navigation sensors has been carried as one of the CEV Project's top risks. The AR&D Sensor Technology Project seeks to reduce the risk by the testing and analysis of selected relative navigation sensor technologies through hardware-in-the-Ioop testing and simulation. These activities will provide the CEV Project information to assess the relative navigation sensors maturity as well as demonstrate test methods and capabilities. The first year of this project focused on a series of "pathfinder" testing tasks to develop the test plans, test facility requirements, trajectories, math model architecture, simulation platform, and processes that will be used to evaluate the Contractor-proposed sensors. Four candidate sensors were used in the first phase of the testing. The second phase of testing used four sensors simultaneously: two Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Advanced Video Guidance Sensors (AVGS), a laser-based video sensor that uses retroreflectors attached to the target vehicle, and two commercial laser range finders. The multi-sensor testing was conducted at MSFC's Flight Robotics Laboratory (FRL) using the FRL's 6-DOF gantry system, called the Dynamic Overhead Target System (DOTS). The target vehicle for "docking" in the laboratory was a mockup that was representative of the proposed CEV docking system, with added retroreflectors for the AVGS.' The multi-sensor test configuration used 35 open-loop test trajectories covering three major objectives: (l) sensor characterization trajectories designed to test a wide range of performance parameters; (2) CEV-specific trajectories designed to test performance during CEV-like approach and departure profiles; and (3) sensor characterization tests designed for evaluating sensor performance under more extreme conditions as might be induced during a spacecraft failure or during contingency situations. This paper describes the test development, test facility, test preparations, test execution, and test results of the multisensor series oftrajectories

Brewster, Linda L.↗

Aerocoat 7 Replacement Coatings

Kennedy Space Center has used Aerocoat 7 (AR-7) to protect stainless-steel flex hoses at Launch Complex (LC-39) and hydraulic lines of the Mobile Launcher Platform (MLP) because it provides excellent corrosion protection in low-temperature applications. The Sovereign Company produced AR-7 exclusively for NASA but discontinued production because the coating released high levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and had a significant environmental impact. The purpose of this project was to select and evaluate potential replacement coatings for AR-7 that would be more environmentally sound. The physical and mechanical properties of commercially available coatings were investigated through the Internet. The ideal coating would be fluid enough to penetrate the outer mesh of a stainless-steel flex hose and coat the inner hose, and flexible enough to withstand the movement of the hose, as well as the expansion and contraction of its metal caused by changes in temperature.

Source record↗

Proximity Operations and Docking Sensor Development

The Next Generation Advanced Video Guidance Sensor (NGAVGS) has been under development for the last three years as a long-range proximity operations and docking sensor for use in an Automated Rendezvous and Docking (AR&D) system. The first autonomous rendezvous and docking in the history of the U.S. Space Program was successfully accomplished by Orbital Express, using the Advanced Video Guidance Sensor (AVGS) as the primary docking sensor. That flight proved that the United States now has a mature and flight proven sensor technology for supporting Crew Exploration Vehicles (CEV) and Commercial Orbital Transport Systems (COTS) Automated Rendezvous and Docking (AR&D). NASA video sensors have worked well in the past: the AVGS used on the Demonstration of Autonomous Rendezvous Technology (DART) mission operated successfully in spot mode out to 2 km, and the first generation rendezvous and docking sensor, the Video Guidance Sensor (VGS), was developed and successfully flown on Space Shuttle flights in 1997 and 1998. 12 Parts obsolescence issues prevent the construction of more AVGS units, and the next generation sensor was updated to allow it to support the CEV and COTS programs. The flight proven AR&D sensor has been redesigned to update parts and add additional capabilities for CEV and COTS with the development of the Next Generation AVGS at the Marshall Space Flight Center. The obsolete imager and processor are being replaced with new radiation tolerant parts. In addition, new capabilities include greater sensor range, auto ranging capability, and real-time video output. This paper presents some sensor hardware trades, use of highly integrated laser components, and addresses the needs of future vehicles that may rendezvous and dock with the International Space Station (ISS) and other Constellation vehicles. It also discusses approaches for upgrading AVGS to address parts obsolescence, and concepts for minimizing the sensor footprint, weight, and power requirements. In addition, the testing of the brassboard and proto-type NGAVGS units will be discussed along with the use of the NGAVGS as a proximity operations and docking sensor.

Howard, Richard T.↗

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim↗