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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Year-Round Pack Ice in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica: Response and Sensitivity to Atmospheric and Oceanic Forcing

Using a dynamic-thermodynamic numerical sea-ice model, external oceanic and atmospheric forcings on sea ice in the Weddell Sea are examined to identify physical processes associated with the seasonal cycle of pack ice, and to identify further the parameters that coupled models need to consider in predicting the response of the pack ice to climate and ocean-circulation changes. In agreement with earlier studies, the primary influence on the winter ice-edge maximum extent is air temperature. Ocean heat flux has more impact on the minimum-ice-edge extent and in reducing pack-ice thickness, especially in the eastern-Weddell Sea. Low relative humidity enhances ice growth in thin ice and open-water regions, producing a more realistic ice edge along the coastal areas of the western-Weddell Sea where dry continental air has an impact. The modeled extent of the Weddell summer pack is equally sensitive to ocean heat flux and atmospheric relative humidity variations with the more dynamic responses being from the atmosphere. Since the atmospheric regime in the eastern Weddell is dominated by marine intrusions from lower latitudes, with high humidity already, it is unlikely that either the moisture trans- port could be further raised or that it could be significantly lowered because of its distance from the continent (the lower humidity source). Ocean heat-transport variability is shown to lead to overall ice thinning in the model response and is a known feature of the actual system, as evidenced by the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid 1970s.

Geiger, Cathleen A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Plant Physiology Increases the Magnitude and Spread of the Transient Climate Response to CO 2 in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Increasing concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere influence climate both through CO 2 ’s role as a greenhouse gas and through its impact on plants. Plants respond to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in several ways that can alter surface energy and water fluxes and thus surface climate, including changes in stomatal conductance, water use, and canopy leaf area. These plant physiological responses are already embedded in most Earth system models, and a robust literature demonstrates that they can affect global-scale temperature. However, the physiological contribution to transient warming has yet to be assessed systematically in Earth system models. Here this gap is addressed using carbon cycle simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to isolate the radiative and physiological contributions to the transient climate response (TCR), which is defined as the change in globally averaged near-surface air temperature during the 20-yr window centered on the time of CO 2 doubling relative to preindustrial CO 2 concentrations. In CMIP6 models, the physiological effect contributes 0.12°C ( σ : 0.09°C; range: 0.02°–0.29°C) of warming to the TCR, corresponding to 6.1% of the full TCR ( σ : 3.8%; range: 1.4%–13.9%). Moreover, variation in the physiological contribution to the TCR across models contributes disproportionately more to the intermodel spread of TCR estimates than it does to the mean. The largest contribution of plant physiology to CO 2 -forced warming—and the intermodel spread in warming—occurs over land, especially in forested regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Transient flow combustion

Non-steady combustion problems can result from engine sources such as accelerations, decelerations, nozzle adjustments, augmentor ignition, and air perturbations into and out of the compressor. Also non-steady combustion can be generated internally from combustion instability or self-induced oscillations. A premixed-prevaporized combustor would be particularly sensitive to flow transients because of its susceptability to flashback-autoignition and blowout. An experimental program, the Transient Flow Combustion Study is in progress to study the effects of air and fuel flow transients on a premixed-prevaporized combustor. Preliminary tests performed at an inlet air temperature of 600 K, a reference velocity of 30 m/s, and a pressure of 700 kPa. The airflow was reduced to 1/3 of its original value in a 40 ms ramp before flashback occurred. Ramping the airflow up has shown that blowout is more sensitive than flashback to flow transients. Blowout occurred with a 25 percent increase in airflow (at a constant fuel-air ratio) in a 20 ms ramp. Combustion resonance was found at some conditions and may be important in determining the effects of flow transients.

Tacina, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Use of Geostationary Satellite Data to Force Land Surface Schemes within Atmospheric Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/NCAR MM5. Assimilation has been performed on a grid centered over the Southeastern US since November 1998. Results from the past year show that assimilation of the satellite data reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. These findings are based on comparison of assimilation runs with a control using the simple 5-layer soil model available in MM5. A significant development in the past several months was the inclusion of the detailed Oregon State University land surface model (OSU/LSM) as an option within MM5. One of our working hypotheses has been that the assimilation technique, although simple, may provide better short-term forecasts than a detailed LSM that requires significant number initialized parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the assimilation out performs the OSU/LSM as it is incorporated in MM5. Details will be presented at the symposium.

Lapenta, William M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Soil temperatures and stability of ice-cemented ground in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Year-round temperature measurements at 1600 m elevation during 1994 in the Asgard Range Antarctica, indicate that the mean annual frost point of the ice-cemented ground, 25 cm below the surface, is -21.7 +/- 0.2 degrees C and the mean annual frost point of the atmosphere is -27.5 +/- 1.0 degrees C. The corresponding mean annual temperatures are -24.9 degrees C and -23.3 degrees C. These results imply that there is a net flux of water vapour from the ice to the atmosphere resulting in a recession of the ice-cemented ground by about 0.4-0.6 mm yr-1. The level of the ice-cemented permafrost is about 12 cm below the level of dry permafrost. The summer air temperatures would have to increase about 7 degrees C for thawing temperatures to just reach the top of the subsurface ice. Either subsurface ice at this location is evaporating over time or there are sporadic processes that recharge the ice and maintain equilibrium over long timescales.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Revised Calibration Function and Results for the Phoenix Mission TECP Relative Humidity Sensor

The original calibration function of the R(sub H) sensor on the Phoenix Thermal and Electrical Conductivity Sensor (TECP) has been revised in order to extend the range of the valid calibration, and to improve accuracy. The original function returned non-physical R(sub H) values at the lowest temperatures. To resolve this, and because the original calibration was performed against a pair of hygrometers that measured frost point (T(sub f)), the revised calibration equation is also cast in terms of frost point. Because of the complexity of maintaining very low temperatures and high R(sub H) in the laboratory, no calibration data exists at T is greater than 203K. However, sensor response during the mission was smooth and continuous down to 181 K. Therefore we have opted to include flight data in the calibration data set; selection was limited to data acquired during periods when the atmosphere is known to have been saturated. T(sub f) remained below 210 K throughout the mission(P is greater than 0.75 Pa). R(sub H), conversely, ranged from 1 to well under 0.01 diurnally, due to approximately 50 K temperature variations. To first order, both vapor pressure and its variance are greater during daylight hours. Variance in overnight humidity is almost entirely explained by temperature, while atmospheric turbulence contributes substantial variance to daytime humidity. Likewise, data gathered with the TECP aloft reflect higher H2O abundances than at the surface, as well as greater variance. There is evidence for saturation of the atmosphere overnight throughout much of the mission. In virtually every overnight observation, once the atmosphere cooled to T(sub f), water vapor begins to decrease, and tracks air temperature. There is no evidence for substantial decreases in water vapor prior to saturation, as expected for adsorptive exchange. Likewise, there is no evidence of local control of vapor by phases such as perchlorate hydrates hydrated minerals. The daytime average H2O pressure does not change substantially over the course of the mission, although the H2O column abundance varies by a factor of 2. Column abundances calculated from TECP data are lower than orbital measurements if one assumes that H2O is uniformly mixed through a single scale height. These results argue that the vertical distribution of H2O begins to change well in advance of surface concentrations as northern autumn approaches.

Phoenix Thermal and Electrical Conductivity Sensor↗
NASA NTRS1977

Surface temperatures and temperature gradient features of the US Gulf Coast waters

Satellite thermal infrared data on the Gulf of Mexico show that a seasonal cycle exists in the horizontal surface temperature structure. In the fall, the surface temperatures of both coastal and deep waters are nearly uniform. With the onset of winter, atmospheric cold fronts, which are accompanied by dry, low temperature air and strong winds, draw heat from the sea. A band of cooler water forming on the inner shelf expands, until a thermal front develops seaward along the shelf break between the cold shelf waters and the warmer deep waters of the Gulf. Digital analysis of the satellite data was carried out in an interactive mode using a minicomputer and software. A time series of temperature profiles illustrates the temporal and spatial changes in the sea-surface temperature field.

Huh, O. K.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A scheme for computing surface fluxes from mean flow observations

A computational method for estimating turbulent surface stress, sensible heat flux, and humidity flux from mean velocity, temperature, and humidity at a single height in the atmospheric surface layer is presented. The method is based on coupling a Monin-Obukhov similarity profile to a 'force-restore' formulation for the evolution of surface soil temperature to yield the local values of shear stress, heat flux, and surface temperature. In addition to reference-level mean flow properties, the parameters required to implement this method are the thermal heat capacity of the soil, the surface aerodynamic roughness, latitude, solar declination, surface albedo, surface emissivity, and atmospheric transmissivity. Sample calculations are presented for (1) constant atmospheric forcing at the reference level, and (2) variable atmospheric forcing corresponding to Kahle's (1977) measurements of windspeed, air temperature, and radiometer soil surface temperature under dry vegetatively sparse conditions in the Mohave Desert, Calif.

Hoffert, M. I.↗
NASA NTRS1991

High temperature performance evaluation of a hypersonic engine ceramic wafer seal

Leakage rates of an innovative hypersonic engine seal were measured using a specially developed static high temperature seal test fixture at NASA Lewis Research Center. The three foot long structural panel-edge seal is designed to minimize leakage of high temperature, high pressure gases past the movable panels of advanced ramjet/scramjet engines. The seal is made of a stack of precision machined ceramic wafer pieces that are inserted into a closely conforming seal channel in the movable engine panel. The wafer seal accommodates the significant distortions in the adjacent engine walls through relative sliding between adjacent wafers. Seal leakage rates are presented for engine simulated air temperatures up to 1350 F and for engine pressures up to 100 psi. Leakage rates are also presented for the seal, sealing both a flat wall condition, and an engine simulated distorted wall condition in which the distortion was 0.15 in. in only an 18 in. span. Seal leakage rates were low, meeting an industry-established tentative leakage limit for all combinations of temperature, pressure, and wall conditions considered. Comparisons are made between the measured leakage rates and leakage rates predicted using a seal leakage model developed from externally-pressurized gas film bearing theory.

Steinetz, Bruce M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

An investigation of current and future satellite and in-situ data for the remote sensing of the land surface energy balance

This final report from the University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) summarizes a research program designed to improve our knowledge of the water and energy balance of the land surface through the application of remote sensing and in-situ data sources. The remote sensing data source investigations to be detailed involve surface radiometric ('skin') temperatures and also high-spectral-resolution infrared radiance data from atmospheric sounding instruments projected to be available at the end of the decade, which have shown promising results for evaluating the land-surface water and energy budget. The in-situ data types to be discussed are measurements of the temporal changes of the height of the planetary boundary layer and measurements of air temperature within the planetary boundary layer. Physical models of the land surface, planetary boundary layer and free atmosphere have been used as important tools to interpret the in-situ and remote sensing signals of the surface energy balance. A prototype 'optimal' system for combining multiple data sources into a three-dimensional estimate of the surface energy balance was developed and first results from this system will be detailed. Potential new sources of data for this system and suggested continuation research will also be discussed.

Diak, George R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Comparison of Satellite-Derived and In-Situ Observations of Ice and Snow Surface Temperatures over Greenland

The most practical way to get a spatially broad and continuous measurements of the surface temperature in the data-sparse cryosphere is by satellite remote sensing. The uncertainties in satellite-derived LSTs must be understood to develop internally-consistent decade-scale land-surface temperature (LST) records needed for climate studies. In this work we assess satellite-derived "clear-sky" LST products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and LSTs derived from the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) over snow and ice on Greenland. When possible, we compare satellite-derived LSTs with in-situ air-temperature observations from Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) automatic-weather stations (AWS). We find that MODIS, ASTER and ETM+ provide reliable and consistent LSTs under clear-sky conditions and relatively-flat terrain over snow and ice targets over a range of temperatures from -40 to 0 C. The satellite-derived LSTs agree within a relative RMS uncertainty of approx.0.5 C. The good agreement among the LSTs derived from the various satellite instruments is especially notable since different spectral channels and different retrieval algorithms are used to calculate LST from the raw satellite data. The AWS record in-situ data at a "point" while the satellite instruments record data over an area varying in size from: 57 X 57 m (ETM+), 90 X 90 m (ASTER), or to 1 X 1 km (MODIS). Surface topography and other factors contribute to variability of LST within a pixel, thus the AWS measurements may not be representative of the LST of the pixel. Without more information on the local spatial patterns of LST, the AWS LST cannot be considered valid ground truth for the satellite measurements, with RMS uncertainty approx.2 C. Despite the relatively large AWS-derived uncertainty, we find LST data are characterized by high accuracy but have uncertain absolute precision.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A high-performance lung-inspired ceramic 3D-printed heat exchanger for high-temperature energy-efficient systems

The thermal-to-electric conversion efficiency of next-generation supercritical carbon dioxide and concentrated solar power plants is significantly augmented by operating at temperatures exceeding 1000 °C if durable, compact, high-temperature heat exchangers (HXs) are developed. Whereas metal 3D-printed HXs fail to operate under extreme temperature conditions, ceramic 3D-printed HXs are deemed promising candidates for high-temperature, highly oxidizing environments. Ceramic 3D-printed HXs, however, exhibit a high gas permeability issue through hot and cold separating walls due to an excessive non-volatile photopolymer content utilized. Here, in this work, a novel leak-free lung-inspired ceramic 3D-printed HX employing a highly complex heat transfer topology is introduced for high-temperature energy-efficient systems. The high permeability issue of ceramic 3D-printed HXs is fully eliminated through a uniform zinc-based coating. It was determined that the effective thermal conductivity of the sintered ceramic heat exchangers is affected by the coated layer. The high-temperature thermal and hydraulic characteristics of the lung-inspired ceramic 3D-printed HX are comprehensively examined and compared against a millichannel 3D-printed HX module. Experimental results indicated that the lung-inspired 3D-printed ceramic HX significantly outperforms its millichannel counterpart. The lung-inspired HX shows a volume-based power density of 8.2 MW/m3 at a hot-side inlet air temperature of 700°C, a 71 % improvement compared with that of the millichannel HX. More importantly, the higher thermal duty of the lung-inspired 3D-printed HX is realized at a lower normalized pressure drop penalty of 510 Pa/W, 22 % lower than that of the millichannel ceramic HX. This study accelerates the advancement of high-performance ceramic 3D-printed HXs with complex topologies for high-temperature energy-efficient systems and/or corrosive environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clouds and Radiation Processes in Regional Climate Models Evaluated Using Observations Over the Ice‐free Arctic Ocean

Abstract The presence of clouds in the Arctic regulates the surface energy budget (SEB) over the sea‐ice surface and the ice‐free ocean. Following several previous field campaigns, the cloud‐radiation relationship, including cloud vertical structure and phase, has been elucidated; however, modeling of this relationship has matured slowly. In recognition of the recent decline in the Arctic sea‐ice extent, representation of the cloud system in numerical models should consider the effects of areas covered by sea ice and ice‐free areas. Using an in situ stationary meteorological observation data set obtained over the ice‐free Arctic Ocean by the Japanese Research Vessel Mirai (September 2014), coordinated evaluation of six regional climate models (RCMs) with nine model runs was performed by focusing on clouds and the SEB. The most remarkable findings were as follows: (1) reduced occurrence of unstable stratification with low‐level cloud water in all models in comparison to the observations, (2) significant differences in cloud water representations between single‐ and double‐moment cloud schemes, (3) extensive differences in partitioning of hydrometeors including solid/liquid precipitation, and (4) pronounced lower‐tropospheric air temperature biases. These issues are considered as the main sources of SEB uncertainty over ice‐free areas of the Arctic Ocean. The results from a coupled RCM imply that the SEB is constrained by both the atmosphere and the ocean (and sea ice) with considerable feedback. Coordinated improvement of both stand‐alone atmospheric and coupled RCMs would promote a more comprehensive and improved understanding of the Arctic air‐ice‐sea coupled system.

Inoue, Jun↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2013

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Constraining Human Contributions to Observed Warming Since the Pre-industrial Period

Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

Attribution↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Role of Temperature, Humidity and Rainfall on Influenza Transmission in Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama

Worldwide, seasonal influenza causes about 500,000 deaths and 5 million severe illnesses per year. The environmental drivers of influenza transmission are poorly understood especially in the tropics. We aimed to identify meteorological factors for influenza transmission in tropical Central America. We gathered laboratory-confirmed influenza case-counts by week from Guatemala City, San Salvador Department (El Salvador) and Panama Province from 2006 to 2010. The average total cases per year were: 390 (Guatemala), 99 (San Salvador) and 129 (Panama). Meteorological factors including daily air temperature, rainfall, relative and absolute humidity (RH, AH) were obtained from ground stations, NASA satellites and land models. For these factors, we computed weekly averages and their deviation from the 5-yr means. We assessed the relationship between the number of influenza case-counts and the meteorological factors, including effects lagged by 1 to 4 weeks, using Poisson regression for each site. Our results showed influenza in San Salvador would increase by 1 case within a week of every 1 day with RH>75% (Relative Risk (RR)= 1.32, p=.001) and every 1C increase in minimum temperature (RR=1.29, p=.007) but it would decrease by 1 case for every 1mm-above mean weekly rainfall (RR=0.93,p<.001) (model pseudo-R2=0.55). Within 2 weeks, influenza in Panama was increased by 1 case for every 1% increase in RH (RR=1.04, p=.003), and it was increased by 2 cases for every 1C increase of minimum temperature (RR=2.01, p<.001) (model pseudo-R2=0.4). Influenza counts in Guatemala had 1 case increase for every 1C increase in minimum temperature in the previous week (RR=1.21, p<.001), and for every 1mm/day-above normal increase of rainfall rate (RR=1.03, p=.03) (model pseudo-R2=0.54). Our findings that cases increase with temperature and humidity differ from some temperate-zone studies. But they indicate that climate parameters such as humidity and temperature could be predictive of influenza activity and should be incorporated into country-specific influenza transmission models

Soebiyanto, Radina P.↗