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Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 6: A multiyear assimilation with the GEOS-1 system: Overview and results

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center has produced a multiyear global assimilated data set with version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS). One of the main goals of this project, in addition to benchmarking the GEOS-1 system, was to produce a research quality data set suitable for the study of short-term climate variability. The output, which is global and gridded, includes all prognostic fields and a large number of diagnostic quantities such as precipitation, latent heating, and surface fluxes. Output is provided four times daily with selected quantities available eight times per day. Information about the observations input to the GEOS-1 DAS is provided in terms of maps of spatial coverage, bar graphs of data counts, and tables of all time periods with significant data gaps. The purpose of this document is to serve as a users' guide to NASA's first multiyear assimilated data set and to provide an early look at the quality of the output. Documentation is provided on all the data archives, including sample read programs and methods of data access. Extensive comparisons are made with the corresponding operational European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses, as well as various in situ and satellite observations. This document is also intended to alert users of the data about potential limitations of assimilated data, in general, and the GEOS-1 data, in particular. Results are presented for the period March 1985-February 1990.

Suarez, Max J.↗

Corrosion of Ceramic Materials

Non-oxide ceramics are promising materials for a range of high temperature applications. Selected current and future applications are listed. In all such applications, the ceramics are exposed to high temperature gases. Therefore it is critical to understand the response of these materials to their environment. The variables to be considered here include both the type of ceramic and the environment to which it is exposed. Non-oxide ceramics include borides, nitrides, and carbides. Most high temperature corrosion environments contain oxygen and hence the emphasis of this chapter will be on oxidation processes.

Opila, Elizabeth J.↗

Equatorial Dynamics Observed by Rocket, Radar, and Satellite During the CADRE/MALTED Campaign: Programmatics and small-scale fluctuations - 1

In August 1994, the Mesospheric and Lower Thermospheric Equatorial Dynamics (MALTED) Program was conducted from the Alcantara rocket site in northeastern Brazil as part of the International Guard Rocket Campaign to study equatorial dynamics, irregularities, and instabilities in the ionosphere. This site was selected because of its proximity to the geographic (2.3 deg S) and magnetic (approx. 0.5 deg S) equators. MALTED was concerned with planetary wave modulation of the diurnal tidal amplitude, which exhibits considerable amplitude variability at equatorial and subtropical latitudes. Our goals were to study this global modulation of the tidal motions where tidal influences on the thermal structure are maximum, to study the interaction of these tidal structures with gravity waves and turbulence at mesopause altitudes, and to gain a better understanding of dynamic influences and variability on the equatorial middle atmosphere. Four (two daytime and two nighttime) identical Nike-Orion payloads designed to investigate small-scale turbulence and irregularities were coordinated with 20 meteorological falling-sphere rockets designed to measure temperature and wind fields during a 10-day period. These in situ measurements were coordinated with observations of global-scale mesospheric motions that were provided by various ground based radars and the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) through the Coupling and Dynamics of Regions Equatorial (CADRE) campaign. The ground-based observatories included the Jicamarca radar observatory near Lima, Peru, and medium frequency (MF) radars in Hawaii, Christmas Island, and Adelaide. Since all four Nike-Orion flights penetrated and overflew the electrojet with apogees near 125 km, these flights provided additional information about the electrodynamics and irregularities in the equatorial ionospheric E region and may provide information on wave coupling between the mesosphere and the electrojet. Simultaneous with these flights, the CUPRI 50-MHz radar (Cornell University) provided local sounding of the electrojet region. A description of the campaign logistics and the measurements performed with the Nike-Orion instrumentation and their implications for turbulence due to gravity waves and tidal instability in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) are presented here. From a study of electron density fluctuations measured by rocket probes, we have found evidence for equatorial mesospheric neutral-atmospheric turbulence between 85 and 90 km. Furthermore, falling-sphere data imply that gravity wave breaking was a source for this turbulence. Mean motions and the various planetary, tidal, and gravity wave structures and their coherence and variability are the subjects of a companion paper.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗

BOREAS RS-12 Automated Ground Sunphotometer Measurements in the SSA

The BOREAS RSS-12 team collected both ground and airborne sunphotometer measurements for use in characterizing the aerosol optical properties of the atmosphere during the BOREAS data collection activities. These measurements are to be used to: 1) measure the magnitude and variability of the aerosol optical depth in both time and space; 2) determine the optical properties of the boreal aerosols; and 3) atmospherically correct some remotely sensed data acquired during BOREAS. These data cover selected days and times from May to September 1994 and were taken from one of two ground sites near Candle Lake in the SSA. The data described in this document are from the field sunphotometer data. The data are stored in tabular ASCII files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

Hall, Forrest G.↗

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Liquid Water and Ice Clouds Observed by MODIS Onboard the Terra and Aqua Satellites

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODE) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18,1999 and the Aqua spacecraft on April 26,2002. MODIS scans a swath width sufficient to provide nearly complete global coverage every two days from each polar-orbiting, sun-synchronous, platform at an altitude of 705 km, and provides images in 36 spectral bands between 0.415 and 14.235 pm with spatial resolutions of 250 m (2 bands), 500 m (5 bands) and 1000 m (29 bands). In this paper, we describe the radiative properties of clouds as currently determined from satellites (cloud fraction, optical thickness, cloud top pressure, and cloud effective radius), and highlight the global and regional cloud microphysical properties currently available for assessing climate variability and forcing. These include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties of both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and effective radius for selected geographical locations around the globe.

King, Michael D.↗

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Tropospheric Clouds and Aerosols Observed by MODIS Onboard the Terra and Aqua Satellites

Remote sensing of cloud and aerosol optical properties is routinely obtained using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. Techniques that are being used to enhance our ability to characterize the global distribution of cloud and aerosol properties include well-calibrated multispectral radiometers that rely on visible, near-infrared, and thermal infrared channels. The availability of thermal channels to aid in cloud screening for aerosol properties is an important additional piece of information that has not always been incorporated into sensor designs. In this paper, we describe the radiative properties of clouds as currently determined from satellites (cloud fraction, optical thickness, cloud top pressure, and cloud effective radius), and highlight the global and regional cloud microphysical properties currently available for assessing climate variability and forcing. These include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties of both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and effective radius for selected geographical locations around the world. In addition, we will illustrate the radiative and microphysical properties of aerosol particles that are currently available from space-based observations, and show selected cases in which aerosol particles are observed to modify the cloud optical properties.

King, Michael D.↗

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Time-series for GCM Validation

The ROBUST nature (biases are not as important as previous GCM-evaluations suggest) of the AIRS-observations-generated ARC-maps and ATs as well as their interrelations suggest that they could be a useful tool to select CGCMs which may be considered the reliable, i.e., to be trusted even for longer-term climate drift/change predictions (even on the regional scale). Get monthly gridded CGCM time-series of atmospheric variables coinciding with the timeframe of the AIRS analyses for at least 5-6 years and do the actual evaluations of ARC-maps and ATs for the coinciding time periods.

Molnar, Gyula↗

Assessing the Impact of Advanced Satellite Observations in the NASA GEOS-5 Forecast System Using the Adjoint Method

The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. In this talk, we present results from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. The tool has been running in various off-line configurations for some time, and is scheduled to run as a regular part of the real-time forecast suite beginning in autumn 20 I O. We focus on the impacts of the newest components of the satellite observing system, including AIRS, IASI and GPS. For AIRS and IASI, it is shown that the vast majority of the channels assimilated have systematic positive impacts (of varying magnitudes), although some channels degrade the forecast. Of the latter, most are moisture-sensitive or near-surface channels. The impact of GPS observations in the southern hemisphere is found to be a considerable overall benefit to the system. In addition, the spatial variability of observation impacts reveals coherent patterns of positive and negative impacts that may point to deficiencies in the use of certain observations over, for example, specific surface types. When performed in conjunction with selected observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies appears to pose a major challenge for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems.

Gelaro, Ron↗

Higher-Order Finite Elements for Computing Thermal Radiation

Two variants of the finite-element method have been developed for use in computational simulations of radiative transfers of heat among diffuse gray surfaces. Both variants involve the use of higher-order finite elements, across which temperatures and radiative quantities are assumed to vary according to certain approximations. In this and other applications, higher-order finite elements are used to increase (relative to classical finite elements, which are assumed to be isothermal) the accuracies of final numerical results without having to refine computational meshes excessively and thereby incur excessive computation times. One of the variants is termed the radiation sub-element (RSE) method, which, itself, is subject to a number of variations. This is the simplest and most straightforward approach to representation of spatially variable surface radiation. Any computer code that, heretofore, could model surface-to-surface radiation can incorporate the RSE method without major modifications. In the basic form of the RSE method, each finite element selected for use in computing radiative heat transfer is considered to be a parent element and is divided into sub-elements for the purpose of solving the surface-to-surface radiation-exchange problem. The sub-elements are then treated as classical finite elements; that is, they are assumed to be isothermal, and their view factors and absorbed heat fluxes are calculated accordingly. The heat fluxes absorbed by the sub-elements are then transferred back to the parent element to obtain a radiative heat flux that varies spatially across the parent element. Variants of the RSE method involve the use of polynomials to interpolate and/or extrapolate to approximate spatial variations of physical quantities. The other variant of the finite-element method is termed the integration method (IM). Unlike in the RSE methods, the parent finite elements are not subdivided into smaller elements, and neither isothermality nor other unrealistic physical conditions are assumed. Instead, the equations of radiative heat transfer are integrated numerically over the parent finite elements by use of a computationally efficient Gaussian integration scheme.

Gould, Dana C.↗

MLtool: Universal Supervised Machine Learning Tool to Model Tabulated Data

Machine Learning (ML) is a subfield of Artificial Intelligence that gives computers the ability to learn from past data without being explicitly programmed. The predictive capabilities of ML models have already been used to facilitate several scientific breakthroughs. However, the practical application of ML is often limited due to the gaps in technical knowledge of its users. The common issue faced by many scientific researchers is the inability to choose the appropriate ML pipelines that are needed to treat real-world data, which is often sparse and noisy. To solve this problem, we have developed an automated Machine Learning tool (MLtool) that includes a set of ML algorithms and approaches to aid scientific researchers. The current version of MLtool is implemented as an object-oriented Python code that is easily extensible. It includes 44 different regression algorithms used to model data. MLtool helps users select the best model for their data, based on the scoring metrics used. Besides regression algorithms, MLtool also includes a suite of pre- and post-processing techniques such as missing value imputation, categorical variable encoding, input feature normalization, uncertainty quantification, exploratory data analysis (EDA), etc. MLtool was tested on several publicly available multi-dimensional data sets and was found capable of making accurate predictions.

Machine learning↗

MLtool Python Code

Machine Learning (ML) is a subfield of Artificial Intelligence that gives computers the ability to learn from past data without being explicitly programmed. The predictive capabilities of ML models have already been used to facilitate several scientific breakthroughs. However, the practical application of ML is often limited due to the gaps in technical knowledge of its users. The common issue faced by many scientific researchers is the inability to choose the appropriate ML pipelines that are needed to treat real-world data, which is often sparse and noisy. To solve this problem, we have developed an automated Machine Learning tool (MLtool) that includes a set of ML algorithms and approaches to aid scientific researchers. The current version of MLtool is implemented as an object-oriented Python code that is easily extensible. It includes 44 different regression algorithms used to model data. MLtool helps users select the best model for their data, based on the scoring metrics used. Besides regression algorithms, MLtool also includes a suite of pre- and post-processing techniques such as missing value imputation, categorical variable encoding, input feature normalization, uncertainty quantification, exploratory data analysis (EDA), etc. MLtool was tested on several publicly available multi-dimensional data sets and was found capable of making accurate predictions.

Machine Learning↗

The visual standards for the selection and retention of astronauts, part 2

In preparation for the various studies planned for assessing visual capabilities and tasks in order to set vision standards for astronauts, the following pieces of equipment have been assembled and tested: a spectacle obstruction measuring device, a biometric glare susceptibility tester, a variable vergence amplitude testing device, an eye movement recorder, a lunar illumination simulation chamber, a night myopia testing apparatus, and retinal adaption measuring devices.

Allen, M. J.↗

Transonic aerodynamic and aeroelastic characteristics of a variable sweep wing

The flow over the B-1 wing is studied computationally, including the aeroelastic response of the wing. Computed results are compared with results from wind tunnel and flight tests for both low-sweep and high-sweep cases, at 25.0 and 67.5 deg., respectively, for selected transonic Mach numbers. The aerodynamic and aeroelastic computations are made by using the transonic unsteady code ATRAN3S. Steady aerodynamic computations compare well with wind tunnel results for the 25.0 deg sweep case and also for small angles of attack at the 67.5 deg sweep case. The aeroelastic response results show that the wing is stable at the low sweep angle for the calculation at the Mach number at which there is a shock wave. In the higher sweep case, for the higher angle of attack at which oscillations were observed in the flight and wind tunnel tests, the calculations do not show any shock waves. Their absence lends support to the hypothesis that the observed oscillations are due to the presence of leading edge separation vortices and are not due to shock wave motion as was previously proposed.

Goorjian, P. M.↗

Robust Integration Schemes for Generalized Viscoplasticity with Internal-State Variables

The scope of the work in this presentation focuses on the development of algorithms for the integration of rate dependent constitutive equations. In view of their robustness; i.e., their superior stability and convergence properties for isotropic and anisotropic coupled viscoplastic-damage models, implicit integration schemes have been selected. This is the simplest in its class and is one of the most widely used implicit integrators at present.

Saleeb, Atef F.↗

Experiment Design and Visualization Techniques for an X-59 Low-boom Variability Study

This presentation outlines the design of experiments approach and data visualization techniques for a simulation study of sonic booms from NASA’s X-59 supersonic aircraft. The X-59 will soon be flown over communities across the contiguous USA as it produces a low-loudness sonic boom, or low-boom. Survey data on human perception of low-booms will be collected to support development of potential future commercial supersonic aircraft noise regulatory standards. The macroscopic atmosphere plays a critical role in the loudness of sonic booms. The extensive sonic boom simulation study presented herein was completed to assess climatological, geographical, and seasonal effects on the variability of the X-59’s low-boom loudness and noise exposure region size in order to inform X-59 community test planning. The loudness and extent of the noise exposure region make up the “sonic boom carpet.” Two spatial and temporal resolutions of atmospheric input data to the simulation were investigated. A Fast Flexible Space-Filling Design was used to select the locations across the USA for the two spatial resolutions. Analysis of simulated X-59 low-boom loudness data within a regional subset of the northeast USA was completed using a bootstrap forest to determine the final spatial and temporal resolution of the countrywide simulation study. Atmospheric profiles from NOAA’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 database were used to generate over one million simulated X-59 carpets at the final selected 138 locations across the USA. Effects of aircraft heading, season, geography, and climate zone on low-boom levels and noise exposure region size were analyzed. Models were developed to estimate loudness metrics throughout the USA for X-59 supersonic cruise overflight, and results were visualized on maps to show geographical and seasonal trends. These results inform regulators and mission planners on expected variations in boom levels and carpet extent from atmospheric variations. Understanding potential carpet variability is important when planning community noise surveys using the X-59.

X-59↗

Guest Investigator Studies with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory

The cumulative all-sky survey by the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), composed of data acquired during the first three years of the mission, included a number of regions of very limited exposure. The most glaring deficiency in coverage was toward the region of the South Galactic Pole (SGP), which received significantly less exposure than other directions- by a factor of at least 2 to 3. Furthermore, nearly all of the SGP exposure was accumulated during the first year of the mission. Since blazars are known to be time-variable, and of unknown duty cycle, a pointing of the CCRO in that direction was considered highly desirable, and long overdue. In addition, data gathered from a pointing toward the SGP and its comparison with comprehensive data available for the North Galactic Pole would be extremely valuable to investigators studying the extragalactic diffuse emission. The reasons outlined above prompted our initiation of a Cycle 4 campaign to systematically search with EGRET and COMPTEL for gamma-ray emission from sources near the South Galactic Pole. The Cycle 4 SGP campaign consisted of tnvo 14-day observations separated in in time by approximately 10 months. The temporal separation of the observations was requested to allow a test for possible variations in the detected sources. Our primary targets were 38 FSRQs which lie within 30 degrees of the SGP, and which satisfy the basic criteria for candidate gamma-ray AGNs,flat-spectrum radio sources, many of which exhibit blazar-type properties). These targets were selected from the standard references, and from the available on-line databases (e.g., the NASA Extragalactic Database, NED), as the most promising AGN targets in the vicinity of the SGP. A 30 radius from the SGP was chosen as the boundary of our survey, since the selected targets would then fall within the most sensitive portion of the fields of view of EGRET and COMPTEL (i.e., within a 30 zenith angle), for a CGRO pointing directed exactly at the SGP. Our South Galactic Pole Survey yielded a number of exciting results. The EGRET data were analyzed using the maximum likelihood techniques to estimate the intensity, spectrum, and position of gamma-ray sources in the field of view. Our analysis revealed four sources at energies greater than 100 MeV with likelihood ratios corresponding to greater than 30 detections (Vestrand et al. 1996). One of the sources is associated with the well known gamma-ray blazar PKS 0208-512, but the other three were previously unknown. Among the new detections was PKS 2155-304 which is often considered a prototype of the x-ray selected BL Lacs. PKS 2155-304, which was also detected at hard x-ray energies by CGRO/OSSE, is one of the brightest BL Lac objects in the sky at optical through x-ray energies and has a history of rapid, strong multiwavelength variability. As such, it has been the subject of intensive, contemporaneous, multiwavelength monitoring covering radio frequencies to x-ray energies.

Vestrand, W. T.↗

Defining an Abrasion Index for Lunar Surface Systems as a Function of Dust Interaction Modes and Variable Concentration Zones

Unexpected issues were encountered during the Apollo era of lunar exploration due to detrimental abrasion of materials upon exposure to the fine-grained, irregular shaped dust on the surface of the Moon. For critical design features involving contact with the lunar surface and for astronaut safety concerns, operational concepts and dust tolerance must be considered in the early phases of mission planning. To systematically define material selection criteria, dust interaction can be characterized by two-body or three-body abrasion testing, and subcategorically by physical interactions of compression, rolling, sliding and bending representing specific applications within the system. Two-body abrasion occurs when a single particle or asperity slides across a given surface removing or displacing material. Three-body abrasion occurs when multiple particles interact with a solid surface, or in between two surfaces, allowing the abrasives to freely rotate and interact with the material(s), leading to removal or displacement of mass. Different modes of interaction are described in this paper along with corresponding types of tests that can be utilized to evaluate each configuration. In addition to differential modes of abrasion, variable concentrations of dust in different zones can also be considered for a given system design and operational protocol. These zones include: (1) outside the habitat where extensive dust exposure occurs, (2) in a transitional zone such as an airlock or suitport, and (3) inside the habitat or spacesuit with a low particle count. These zones can be used to help define dust interaction frequencies, and corresponding risks to the systems and/or crew can be addressed by appropriate mitigation strategies. An abrasion index is introduced that includes the level of risk, R, the hardness of the mineralogy, H, the severity of the abrasion mode, S, and the frequency of particle interactions, F.

Kobrick, Ryan L.↗

The 20 kW battery study program

Six battery configurations were selected for detailed study and these are described. A computer program was modified for use in estimation of the weights, costs, and reliabilities of each of the configurations, as a function of several important independent variables, such as system voltage, battery voltage ratio (battery voltage/bus voltage), and the number of parallel units into which each of the components of the power subsystem was divided. The computer program was used to develop the relationship between the independent variables alone and in combination, and the dependent variables: weight, cost, and availability. Parametric data, including power loss curves, are given.

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