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At least 973 records · Page 54

Geostatistical interpolation of streambed hydrologic attributes with addition of left censored data and anisotropy

Spatial geostatistical interpolation of point measurements of streambed attributes in the hyporheic zone may be constrained by the streambed anisotropy, and data density and spatial distribution may significantly impact the results. Spatial clustering and low spatial data density can be caused by bedrock outcropping at the streambed limiting installation of in-stream piezometers. This study examines parameter error variability of the geostatistical interpolation using anisotropic interpolation methods and increasing the data density by adding left censored values (i.e., data below measurement limit) to locations where measurements were limited by exposed bedrock lining the streambed. The reduction in relative standard error of the interpolation was determined for the spatial distributions of streambed attributes including hydraulic conductivity, seepage flux, and mercury solute flux measured in two different years along a study reach in East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee, USA. Here, two methods to impute the left censored values were compared including the conventional half the detection limit substitution method, and the Stochastic Approximation of Expectation-Maximization (SAEM) algorithm, which both had comparable results. Imputing left censored data increased the data density to recommended ranges, reduced data clustering, increased the spatial dependence for some attributes, and reduced the standard error for each of the three attributes. For the reach considered herein, addition of the left censored values resulted in a larger error reduction than the consideration of anisotropy within the interpolation, which confirms the benefit of data addition to increase data density within data-limited river corridors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Finite-element analysis of crack growth under monotonic and cyclic loading

An elastic-plastic (incremental) finite-element analysis, in conjunction with a crack-growth criterion, was used to study crack-growth behavior under monotonic and cyclic loading. The crack-growth criterion was based on crack-tip strain. Whenever the crack-tip strain equals or exceeds a critical strain value, the crack grows. The effects of element-mesh size, critical strain, strain hardening, and specimen type (tension or bending) on crack growth under monotonic loading were investigated. Crack growth under cyclic loading (constant amplitude and simple variable amplitude) were also studied. A combined hardening theory, which incorporates features of both isotropic and kinematic hardening under cyclic loading, was also developed for smooth yield surfaces and was used in the analysis.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗

The ultraviolet spectrum of the high redshift BL lac object 0215+015

The highly variable object 0215+015 is studied. It has a range in the optical band of more than 4 magnitudes, and exhibits radidly variable polarization. At optical wavelengths it shows no emission lines but has a rich absorption spectrum with at least six, separate redshift systems. Combined are 3 LWP low-dispersion images of the object to produce a high signal-to-noise spectrum between 2400 - 3200 A which is use to study the hydrogen Lyman lines of the various redshift systems.

Blades, J. C.↗

A Conterminous USA-Scale Map of Relative Tidal Marsh Elevation

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation ( Z * MHW ), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z * MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z * MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z * MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z * MHW and Z * MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z * MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z * MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

Holmquist, James R. (ORCID:0000000325466766)↗

Probabilistic Simulation of the Human Factor in Structural Reliability

The formal approach described herein computationally simulates the probable ranges of uncertainties for the human factor in probabilistic assessments of structural reliability. Human factors such as marital status, professional status, home life, job satisfaction, work load, and health are studied by using a multifactor interaction equation (MFIE) model to demonstrate the approach. Parametric studies in conjunction with judgment are used to select reasonable values for the participating factors (primitive variables). Subsequently performed probabilistic sensitivity studies assess the suitability of the MFIE as well as the validity of the whole approach. Results show that uncertainties range from 5 to 30 percent for the most optimistic case, assuming 100 percent for no error (perfect performance).

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Numerical Investigation of a Fuselage Boundary Layer Ingestion Propulsion Concept

In the present study, a numerical assessment of the performance of fuselage boundary layer ingestion (BLI) propulsion techniques was conducted. This study is an initial investigation into coupling the aerodynamics of the fuselage with a BLI propulsion system to determine if there is sufficient potential to warrant further investigation of this concept. Numerical simulations of flow around baseline, Boundary Layer Controlled (BLC), and propelled boundary layer controlled airships were performed. Computed results showed good agreement with wind tunnel data and previous numerical studies. Numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis were then conducted on four BLI configurations. The two design variables selected for the parametric study of the new configurations were the inlet area and the inlet to exit area ratio. Current results show that BLI propulsors may offer power savings of up to 85% over the baseline configuration. These interim results include the simplifying assumption that inlet ram drag is negligible and therefore likely overstate the reduction in power. It has been found that inlet ram drag is not negligible and should be included in future analysis.

Elmiligui, Alaa A.↗

Greenland Glacier Albedo Variability

The program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a NASA-funded project with the prime goal of addressing the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. Since the formal initiation of the program in 1995, there has been a significant improvement in the estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheet. Results from this program reveal that the high-elevation regions of the ice sheet are approximately in balance, but the margins are thinning. Laser surveys reveal significant thinning along 70 percent of the ice sheet periphery below 2000 m elevations, and in at least one outlet glacier, Kangerdlugssuaq in southeast Greenland, thinning has been as much as 10 m/yr. This study examines the albedo variability in four outlet glaciers to help separate out the relative contributions of surface melting versus ice dynamics to the recent mass balance changes. Analysis of AVHRR Polar Pathfinder albedo shows that at the Petermann and Jakobshavn glaciers, there has been a negative trend in albedo at the glacier terminus from 1981 to 2000, whereas the Stor+strommen and Kangerdlugssuaq glaciers show slightly positive trends in albedo. These findings are consistent with recent observations of melt extent from passive microwave data which show more melt on the western side of Greenland and slightly less on the eastern side. Significance of albedo trends will depend on where and when the albedo changes occur. Since the majority of surface melt occurs in the shallow sloping western margin of the ice sheet where the shortwave radiation dominates the energy balance in summer (e.g. Jakobshavn region) this region will be more sensitive to changes in albedo than in regions where this is not the case. Near the Jakobshavn glacier, even larger changes in albedo have been observed, with decreases as much as 20 percent per decade.

Source record↗

Experimental Study of an Axisymmetric Dual Throat Fluidic Thrust Vectoring Nozzle for Supersonic Aircraft Application

An axisymmetric version of the Dual Throat Nozzle concept with a variable expansion ratio has been studied to determine the impacts on thrust vectoring and nozzle performance. The nozzle design, applicable to a supersonic aircraft, was guided using the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics code, PAB3D. The axisymmetric Dual Throat Nozzle concept was tested statically in the Jet Exit Test Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The nozzle geometric design variables included circumferential span of injection, cavity length, cavity convergence angle, and nozzle expansion ratio for conditions corresponding to take-off and landing, mid climb and cruise. Internal nozzle performance and thrust vectoring performance was determined for nozzle pressure ratios up to 10 with secondary injection rates up to 10 percent of the primary flow rate. The 60 degree span of injection generally performed better than the 90 degree span of injection using an equivalent injection area and number of holes, in agreement with computational results. For injection rates less than 7 percent, thrust vector angle for the 60 degree span of injection was 1.5 to 2 degrees higher than the 90 degree span of injection. Decreasing cavity length improved thrust ratio and discharge coefficient, but decreased thrust vector angle and thrust vectoring efficiency. Increasing cavity convergence angle from 20 to 30 degrees increased thrust vector angle by 1 degree over the range of injection rates tested, but adversely affected system thrust ratio and discharge coefficient. The dual throat nozzle concept generated the best thrust vectoring performance with an expansion ratio of 1.0 (a cavity in between two equal minimum areas). The variable expansion ratio geometry did not provide the expected improvements in discharge coefficient and system thrust ratio throughout the flight envelope of typical a supersonic aircraft. At mid-climb and cruise conditions, the variable geometry design compromised thrust vector angle achieved, but some thrust vector control would be available, potentially for aircraft trim. The fixed area, expansion ratio of 1.0, Dual Throat Nozzle provided the best overall compromise for thrust vectoring and nozzle internal performance over the range of NPR tested compared to the variable geometry Dual Throat Nozzle.

Flamm, Jeffrey D.↗

Physics Of Variable-Polarity Plasma Arc Welding

Report describes experimental study of some of the physical and chemical effects that occur during variable-polarity plasma arc (VPPA) keyhole welding of 2219 aluminum alloy. Comprised three major programs: (1) determination of effects of chemical additions (i.e., impurities) on structure and shape of bead and keyhole; (2) determination of flow in regions surrounding keyhole; (3) development of analog used easily to study flow in keyhole region.

Walsh, Daniel W.↗

Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming

Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence‐based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science‐based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Study of an intraurban travel demand model incorporating commuter preference variables

The model is based on the substantial travel data base for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, provided by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. The model is of the abstract type, and makes use of commuter attitudes towards modes and simple demographic characteristics of zones in a region to predict interzonal travel by mode for the region. A characterization of the STOL/VTOL mode was extrapolated by means of a subjective comparison of its expected characteristics with those of modes characterized by the survey. Predictions of STOL demand were made for the Bay Area and an aircraft network was developed to serve this demand. When this aircraft system is compared to the base case system, the demand for STOL service has increased five fold and the resulting economics show considerable benefit from the increased scale of operations. In the previous study all systems required subsidy in varying amounts. The new system shows a substantial profit at an average fare of $3.55 per trip.

Holligan, P. E.↗

Multifidelity validation of digital surrogates using variable-density turbulent mixing models

In this study, ensembles of experimental data are presented and utilized to compare and validate two models used in the simulation of variable-density (Atwood = 0.22), compressible turbulent mixing. Though models of this kind (Reynolds averaged NavierStokes and large-eddy simulations) have been validated extensively with more canonical flows in previous studies, here the present approach offers novelty in the complexity of the geometry, the ensemble-based validation, and the uniformity of the computational framework on which the models are tested. Moreover, all experimental and computational tasks were completed by the authors which has led to a tightly coupled experimental configuration with its “digital twin.” The experimental divergent-shock-tube facility and its data acquisition methods are described and replicated in simulation space. A 2D Euler model which neglects the turbulent mixing at the interface is optimized to experimental data using a Gaussian process. This model then serves as the basis for both the 2D RANS and 3D LES studies that make comparisons to the mixing-layer data from the experiment. A relatively simple RANS model is shown to produce good agreement with experimental data only at late flow development times. The LES ensembles generally show good agreement with experimental data but display sensitivity to the characterization of initial conditions. Resolution-dependent behavior is also observed for certain higher-order statistics of interest. Overall, the LES model successfully captures the effects of divergent geometry, compressibility, and combined nonlinear instabilities inherent to the problem. The successful prediction of mixing width and its growth rate highlight the existence of three distinct regimes in the development of the instability, each with similarities to previously studied instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The corona and heliosphere

The eleven-year solar cycle is an especially appropriate period over which to study the solar output and its variation, because during this cycle most of the important types of solar variability (many characterized by periods shorter than eleven years) are manifested. Studies of solar variability over a solar cycle will improve understanding of solar structure and of the generation of the solar wind, and this improved understanding can be useful in the related studies of stellar structure and stellar winds, since stellar observations are necessarily less detailed and sophisticated than are solar observations. A particularly significant benefit that will accrue from a thorough study of the solar atmosphere and its variability over the next solar cycle is a great enhancement in the usefulness of so-called 'proxy' data in studying longer term solar variations and their terrestrial implication.

Holzer, T.↗

A study of the microstructure of a rapidly solidified nickel-base superalloy modified with boron

The microstructures of melt-spun superalloy ribbons with variable boron levels have been studied by transmission electron microscopy. The base alloy was of approximate composition Ni-11% Cr-5%Mo-5%Al-4%Ti with boron levels of 0.06, 0.12, and 0.60 percent (all by weight). Thirty micron thick ribbons display an equiaxed chill zone near the wheel contact side which develops into primary dendrite arms in the ribbon center. Secondary dendrite arms are observed near the ribbon free surface. In the higher boron bearing alloys, boride precipitates are observed along grain boundaries. A concerted effort has been made to elucidate true grain shapes by the use of bright field/dark field microscopy. In the low boron alloy, grain shapes are often convex, and grain faces are flat. Boundary faces frequently have large curvature, and grain shapes form concave polygons in the higher boron level alloys. It is proposed that just after solidification, in all of the alloys studied, grain shapes were initially concave and boundaries were wavy. Boundary straightening is presumed to occur on cooling in the low boron alloy. Boundary migration is precluded in the higher boron alloys by fast precipitation of borides at internal interfaces.

Speck, J. S.↗

Correlation of critical current density to quasi-biaxial texture and grain boundary cleanliness in fully dense Bi-2212 wires

The distinctive quasi-biaxial texture of Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O x (Bi-2212) plays an important role in enabling high critical current density ($J_c$) in Bi-2212 round wires (RWs). Here we studied three over pressure heat treated wires with $J_c$ varying by a factor of ~10, all being fully dense. Using electron backscatter diffraction, we observed the differences in biaxial texture in these three wires. Transmission electron microscopy also revealed differences in grain boundary (GB) cleanliness and connectivity. These analyses showed that high $J_c$ is unambiguously correlated to the best biaxial texture, which is in turn correlated to slow cooling from the liquid melt into solid Bi-2212. However, at 4.2 K, there is a negligible difference in intragrain pinning in the three wires, suggesting that the $J_c$ variation by a factor of ~10 is primarily due to variable filament and intergrain connectivity. In this work, the principal determinants of intergrain connectivity is the quasi-biaxial texture and GB cleanliness. Overall, $J_c$ optimization of the Bi-2212 RW is a complex multi-variable process, but this study shows that maximizing the biaxial texture quality is an important first step in such an optimization process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

10 Yr Spatial and Temporal Trends of PM2.5 Concentrations in the Southeastern US Estimated Using High-resolution Satellite Data

Long-term PM2.5 exposure has been reported to be associated with various adverse health outcomes. However, most ground monitors are located in urban areas, leading to a potentially biased representation of the true regional PM2.5 levels. To facilitate epidemiological studies, accurate estimates of spatiotemporally continuous distribution of PM2.5 concentrations are essential. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely used for PM2.5 concentration estimation due to its comprehensive spatial coverage. Nevertheless, an inherent disadvantage of current AOD products is their coarse spatial resolutions. For instance, the spatial resolutions of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) are 10 km and 17.6 km, respectively. In this paper, a new AOD product with 1 km spatial resolution retrieved by the multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) algorithm was used. A two-stage model was developed to account for both spatial and temporal variability in the PM2.5-AOD relationship by incorporating the MAIAC AOD, meteorological fields, and land use variables as predictors. Our study area is in the southeastern US, centered at the Atlanta Metro area, and data from 2001 to 2010 were collected from various sources. The model was fitted for each year individually, and we obtained model fitting R2 ranging from 0.71 to 0.85, MPE from 1.73 to 2.50 g m3, and RMSPE from 2.75 to 4.10 g m3. In addition, we found cross validation R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.78, MPE from 2.00 to 3.01 g m3, and RMSPE from 3.12 to 5.00 g m3, indicating a good agreement between the estimated and observed values. Spatial trends show that high PM2.5 levels occurred in urban areas and along major highways, while low concentrations appeared in rural or mountainous areas. A time series analysis was conducted to examine temporal trends of PM2.5 concentrations in the study area from 2001 to 2010. The results showed that the PM2.5 levels in the study area followed a generally declining trend from 2001 to 2010 and decreased about 20 during the period. However, there was an exception of an increase in year 2005, which is attributed to elevated sulfate concentrations in the study area in warm months of 2005. An investigation of the impact of wild and prescribed fires on PM2.5 levels in 2007 suggests a positive relationship between them.

particulate matter (PM2.5)↗