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At least 973 records · Page 54

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NASA NTRS1995

Cost Trade Between Multi-Junction, Gallium Arsenide, and Silicon Solar Cells

Multi-junction (MJ), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and silicon (Si) solar cells have respective test efficiencies of approximately 24%, 18.5% and 14.8%. Multi-junction and gallium arsenide solar cells weigh more than silicon solar 2 cells and cost approximately five times as much per unit power at the cell level. A trade is performed for the TRMM spacecraft to determine which of these cell types would have offered an overall performance and price advantage to the spacecraft. A trade is also performed for the multi-junction cells under the assumption that they will cost over ten times that of silicon cells at the cell level. The trade shows that the TRMM project, less the cost of the instrument, ground systems and mission operations, would spend approximately $552,000 dollars per kilogram to launch and suppon3science in the case of the spacecraft equipped with silicon solar cells. If these cells are changed out for gallium arsenide solar cells, an additional 31 kilograms of science can be launched and serviced at a price of approximately $90 thousand per kilogram. The weight reduction is shown to derive from the smaller area of the array and hence reductions in the weight of the array substrate and supporting structure. ff the silicon solar cells are changed out for multi-junction solar cells, an additional 45 kilograms of science above the silicon base line can be launched and supported at a price of approximately $58,000 per kilogram. The trade shows that even if the multi-junction cells are priced over ten times that of silicon cells, a price that is much higher than projected, that the additional 45 kilograms of science are launched and serviced at $180,000 per kilogram. This is still much less than the original $552,000 per kilogram to launch and service the science. Data and qualitative factors are presented to show that these figures are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Nonetheless, the benefit of the higher efficiency solar cells for TRMM is far greater than the uncertainties in the analysis.

Gaddy, Edward M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

NASA NTRS2002

Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Synergic use of TOMS and Aeronet Observations for Characterization of Aerosol Absorption

The role of aerosol absorption on the radiative transfer balance of the earth-atmosphere system is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the analysis of global climate change. Global measurements of aerosol single scattering albedo are, therefore, necessary to properly assess the radiative forcing effect of aerosols. Remote sensing of aerosol absorption is currently carried out using both ground (Aerosol Robotic Network) and space (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) based observations. The satellite technique uses measurements of backscattered near ultraviolet radiation. Carbonaceous aerosols, resulting from the combustion of biomass, are one of the most predominant absorbing aerosol types in the atmosphere. In this presentation, TOMS and AERONET retrievals of single scattering albedo of carbonaceous aerosols, are compared for different environmental conditions: agriculture related biomass burning in South America and Africa and peat fires in Eastern Europe. The AERONET and TOMS derived aerosol absorption information are in good quantitative agreement. The most absorbing smoke is detected over the African Savanna. Aerosol absorption over the Brazilian rain forest is less absorbing. Absorption by aerosol particles resulting from peat fires in Eastern Europe is weaker than the absorption measured in Africa and South America. This analysis shows that the near UV satellite method of aerosol absorption characterization has the sensitivity to distinguish different levels of aerosol absorption. The analysis of the combined AERONET-TOMS observations shows a high degree of synergy between satellite and ground based observations.

Torres, O.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Aeroelastic Analysis of Turbomachinery Components

A probabilistic approach is described for aeroelastic analysis of turbomachinery blade rows. Blade rows with subsonic flow and blade rows with supersonic flow with subsonic leading edge are considered. To demonstrate the probabilistic approach, the flutter frequency, damping and forced response of a blade row representing a compressor geometry is considered. The analysis accounts for uncertainties in structural and aerodynamic design variables. The results are presented in the form of probabilistic density function (PDF) and sensitivity factors. For subsonic flow cascade, comparisons are also made with different probabilistic distributions, probabilistic methods, and Monte-Carlo simulation. The approach shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess the effect of uncertainties in design variables on the aeroelastic instabilities and response.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Preliminary Convective-Radiative Heating Environments for a Neptune Aerocapture Mission

Convective and radiative heating environments have been computed for a three-dimensional ellipsled configuration which would perform an aerocapture maneuver at Neptune. This work was performed as part of a one-year Neptune aerocapture spacecraft systems study that also included analyses of trajectories, atmospheric modeling, aerodynamics, structural design, and other disciplines. Complementary heating analyses were conducted by separate teams using independent sets of aerothermodynamic modeling tools (i.e. Navier-Stokes and radiation transport codes). Environments were generated for a large 5.50 m length ellipsled and a small 2.88 m length ellipsled. Radiative heating was found to contribute up to 80% of the total heating rate at the ellipsled nose depending on the trajectory point. Good agreement between convective heating predictions from the two Navier-Stokes solvers was obtained. However, the radiation analysis revealed several uncertainties in the computational models employed in both sets of codes, as well as large differences between the predicted radiative heating rates.

Hollis, Brian R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Time Changes of the European Gravity Field from GRACE: A Comparison with Ground Measurements from Superconducting Gravimeters and with Hydrology Model Predictions

We investigate the time-variable gravity changes in Europe retrieved from the initial GRACE monthly solutions spanning a 18 month duration from April 2002 to October 2003. Gravity anomaly maps are retrieved in Central Europe from the monthly satellite solutions we compare the fields according to various truncation levels (typically between degree 10 and 20) of the initial fields (expressed in spherical harmonics to degree 120). For these different degrees, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of the time-variable gravity field leads us to its main spatial and temporal characteristics. We show that the dominant signal is found to be annual with an amplitude and a phase both in agreement with predictions in Europe modeled using snow and soil-moisture variations from recent hydrology models. We compare these GRACE gravity field changes to surface gravity observations from 6 superconducting gravimeters of the GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) European sub-network, with a special attention to loading corrections. Initial results suggest that all 3 data sets (GRACE, hydrology and GGP) are responding to annual changes in near-surface water in Europe of a few microGal (at length scales of approx.1000 km) that show a high value in winter and a summer minimum. We also point out that the GRACE gravity field evolution seems to indicate that there is a trend in gravity between summer 2002 and summer 2003 which can be related to the 2003 heatwave in Europe and its hydrological consequences (drought). Despite the limited time span of our analysis and the uncertainties in retrieving a regional solution from the network of gravimeters, the calibration and validation aspects of the GRACE data processing based on the annual hydrology cycle in Europe are in progress.

Hinderer, J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Y0 WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 and the Y1 WISE J035000.32-565830.2: the Importance of Non-Equilibrium Chemistry

We present new near-infrared spectra, obtained at Gemini Observatory, for two Y dwarfs: WISE J035000.32−565830.2 (W0350) and WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 (W1738). A FLAMINGOS-2 R = 540 spectrum was obtained for W0350, covering 1.0 < λ micrometer < 1.7, and a cross-dispersed GNIRS R = 2800 spectrum was obtained for W1738, covering 0.993 - 1.087 micrometer, 1.191 - 1.305 micrometer, 1.589 - 1.631 micrometer, and 1.985 - 2.175 micrometer, in four orders. We also present revised Y JH photometry for W1738, using new NIRI Y and J imaging, and a re-analysis of the previously published NIRI H band images. We compare these data, together with previously published data for late-T and Y dwarfs, to cloud-free models of solar metallicity, calculated both in chemical equilibrium and with disequilibrium driven by vertical transport. We find that for the Y dwarfs the non-equilibrium models reproduce the near-infrared data better than the equilibrium models. The remaining discrepancies suggest that fine-tuning the CH4/CO and NH3/N2 balance is needed. Improved trigonometric parallaxes would improve the analysis. Despite the uncertainties and discrepancies, the models reproduce the observed near-infrared spectra well. We find that for the Y0, W1738, T(sub eff) = 425 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25, and for the Y1, W0350, T(sub eff) = 350 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25. W1738 may be metal-rich. Based on evolutionary models, these temperatures and gravities correspond to a mass range for both Y dwarfs of 3 - 9 Jupiter masses, with W0350 being a cooler, slightly older, version of W1738; the age of W0350 is 0.3 - 3 Gyr, and the age of W1738 is 0.15 - 1 Gyr.

two Y dwarfs↗

NASA NTRS2016

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Geuther, Steven C.↗

NASA NTRS2024

High-Resolution Mapping of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in Large US Cities From TROPOMI Retrievals of Tropospheric Nitrogen Dioxide Columns

Satellite-derived spatiotemporal patterns of nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions can improve accuracy of emission inventories to better support air quality and climate research and policy studies. In this study, we develop a new method by coupling the chemical transport Model-Independent SATellite-derived Emission estimation Algorithm for Mixed-sources (MISATEAM) with a divergence method to map high-resolution NO x emissions across US cities using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) retrievals. The accuracy of the coupled method is validated through application to synthetic NO 2 observations from the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model, with a horizontal spatial resolution of 4 km × 4 km for 33 large and mid-size US cities. Validation reveals excellent agreement between inferred and NU-WRF-provided emission magnitudes (R= 0.99, normalized mean bias, NMB = −0.01) and a consistent spatial pattern when comparing emissions for individual grid cells (R=0.88 ± 0.06). We then develop a TROPOMI-based database reporting annual emissions for 39 US cities at a horizontal spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05° from 2018 to 2021. This database demonstrates a strong correlation (R= 0.90) with the National Emission Inventory (NEI) but reveals some bias (NMB = −0.24). There are noticeable differences in the spatial patterns of emissions in some cities. Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in TROPOMI-based emissions and potential misallocation of emissions and/or missing sources in bottom-up emission inventories both contribute to these differences.

NOx emissions↗

NASA NTRS2026

Development and Experimental Validation of a Path-Dependent Spin Forming Finite Element Model

Spin forming is an advanced manufacturing process widely used in the aerospace and defense sectors to produce lightweight, high-strength cylindrical components with tight dimensional tolerances. This study explores the applicability of the path-dependent Mechanical Threshold Stress (MTS) constitutive model by simulating the evolution of geometry, machining forces, and plastic deformation during the spin forming of a 10-mm thick 6061-O aluminum cylinder. While numerical modeling of spin forming has advanced substantially over the past decade, systematic verification and experimental validation of material models remain limited, particularly in predicting through-thickness process evolution. The MTS model, incorporating a Voce hardening rule, is employed for its ability to represent cyclic loading, rapidly varying temperature fields, and strain rates characteristic of spin forming. Numerical convergence analysis indicates discretization uncertainties between 0.3% and 9.2% for key quantities of interest. Experimental validation demonstrates that the MTS model, when implemented with a verified mesh, accurately reproduces both elastic and plastic behavior of 6061-O aluminum, predicting peak roller loads within 11–18% of measurements, geometric tolerances within 3%, and plastic strain distributions within 10% of experimental values. Collectively, these results establish a validated computational framework for predictive spin-forming simulations with quantified confidence, providing a foundation for extension to other alloys, geometries, and forming conditions.

Spin forming↗

DOE OSTI2023

A New Reflected Target Optical Assessment System - Stage 1 Development Results: Preprint

NREL has completed stage 1 development of an indoor optical measurement tool for fully assembled heliostats and single facets. This tool began as an indoor version of NREL's NIO technique. It uses similar techniques to other available tools (deflectometry, photogrammetry, etc.), but is designed require very little infrastructure, labor, and time to set up and collect surface slope and canting measurements on fully assembled heliostats and parabolic trough facets, making it a valuable tool for quality assurance and laboratory measurement of helio-stat optics. It accomplishes this by using computer vision, photogrammetry, and multiple images stitched together to minimize the printed target size and required setup precision. This adaptable setup is useful for taking measurements at a variety of heliostat pointing angles, and for measuring fully assembled heliostats on the assembly line. The measurement system's methodology and an analysis of its uncertainty, sensitivity and comparison with established optical measurement systems is described below.

canting↗

DOE OSTI2022

Diffuse back-illumination temperature imaging (DBI-TI), a novel soot thermometry technique

To meet stringent emissions regulations on soot emissions, it is critical to further advance the fundamental understanding of in-cylinder soot formation and oxidation processes. Among several optical techniques for soot quantification, diffuse back-illumination extinction imaging (DBI-EI) has recently gained traction mainly due to its ability to compensate for beam steering, which if not addressed, can cause unacceptably high measurement uncertainty. Until now, DBI-EI has only been used to measure the amount of soot along the line of sight, and here, we extend the capabilities of a DBI-EI setup to also measure in-cylinder soot temperature. This proof of concept of diffuse back-illumination temperature imaging (DBI-TI) as a soot thermometry technique is presented by implementing DBI-TI in a single cylinder, heavy-duty, optical diesel engine to provide 2-D line-of-sight integrated soot temperature maps. The potential of DBI-TI to be an accurate thermometry technique for use in optical engines is analyzed. The achievable accuracy is due in part to simultaneous measurement of the soot extinction, which circumvents the uncertainty in dispersion coefficients that depend on the optical properties of soot and the wavelength of light utilized. Analysis shows that DBI-TI provides temperature estimates that are closer to the mass-averaged soot temperature when compared to other thermometry techniques that are more sensitive to soot temperature closer to the detector. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations provide estimates of the temperature measurement errors associated with this technique. The MC simulations reveal that for the light intensities and optical densities encountered in these experiments, the accuracy of the DBI-TI technique is comparable or even better than other established optical thermometry techniques. Thus, DBI-TI promises to be an easily implementable extension to the existing DBI-EI technique, thereby extending its ability to provide comprehensive line-of-sight integrated information on soot.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Uncertainty in HPC Job Queue Time Predictions

High Performance Computing (HPC) has developed at an unprecedented pace in recent decades. This growth has demanded corresponding development in the area of HPC Operational Data Analytics (ODA), which encompasses a wide range of data analysis techniques, ML/AI efforts, tools, and visualizations. Published studies in ODA offer a variety of practical ways to inform HPC users, administrators, procurement managers, and other stakeholders. Uncertainty analysis, however, is rare in the related published literature. For instance, we identify only 1 out of 14 existing studies focused on job queue time prediction that investigates the uncertainty aspect of their proposed predictions. We recognize the utmost importance uncertainty quantification can have in such predictive analytics solutions, with consequences in how users interpret information they receive, and attempt to bridge this gap. With the goal of improving access to such insights, we develop a process for determining upper and lower bounds of the predicted queue times of a regression model at a specified confidence level. Our current research is focused on the uncertainty in predicting job queue times, yet our approach may be employed in predicting other metrics.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Perspective on the oil-dominated gas hydrate plugging conceptual picture as applied to transient Shut-In/Restart

Gas hydrate formation is rarely an issue during continuous production conditions. Unplanned and/or extended shut-downs comprise the majority of scenarios where overlapping concern and uncertainty for gas hydrate blockages exist. To date, most experimental studies and theoretical analysis of gas hydrate formation derive from the steady-state conceptual picture. Yet, significant distinctions induced by phase separation and prolonged cooling suggest an altered conceptual picture is required for transient shut-in/restart operations. To address this outstanding issue, this work presents a conceptual picture for the base case of a non-surface active hydrocarbon undergoing cold restart without enacted mitigation efforts. First, phase separation upon shut-in leads to the localization of gas hydrate ingredients due to fluids density differences and pipeline inclination. Cooling to the seafloor temperature, then, induces gas hydrate film formation at the hydrocarbon interface and maximizes subcooling, resulting in rapid and confined gas hydrate growth occurring upon restart. Furthermore, this ultimately leads to plugging dominated by the deposition of porous, low conversion gas hydrate masses. Direct visual observations and results from Raman spectroscopy, hydrate contact angle and film growth, micromechanical force apparatus, rocking cell, and flow loop studies support the mechanisms outlined within each step. Similar to the influence provided by the original Colorado School of Mines steady-state conceptual picture that was introduced about 15 years ago, this transient counterpart builds a foundation that could inspire new directions of hydrate research and analysis in areas where uncertainty abounds.

02 PETROLEUM↗