MHD simulation of the 'geoeffectiveness' of interplanetary disturbances
A series of examples is used to evaluate the 'geoeffectiveness' prediction technique that is based on the classical, initial boundary value problem of MHD. For the nonplanar simulation of a corotating stream, it is shown that the technique can compute relevant solar wind parameters at the earth's location. For the nonplanar simulation of a complex series of events, qualitative agreement is found for large-scale structures, but the phasing and amplitudes are not satisfactory. Preliminary work with a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent simulation of a flare-generated interplanetary shock wave shows that the effect of the latitudinal variation produces attenuation of the heliolongitudinal component of the IMF and of the radial velocity.