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At least 973 records · Page 54

Application of Markov chain theory to ASTP natural environment launch criteria at Kennedy Space Center

To aid the planning of the Apollo Soyuz Test Program (ASTP), certain natural environment statistical relationships are presented, based on Markov theory and empirical counts. The practical results are in terms of conditional probability of favorable and unfavorable launch conditions at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). They are based upon 15 years of recorded weather data which are analyzed under a set of natural environmental launch constraints. Three specific forecasting problems were treated: (1) the length of record of past weather which is useful to a prediction; (2) the effect of persistence in runs of favorable and unfavorable conditions; and (3) the forecasting of future weather in probabilistic terms.

Graves, M. E.↗

The Apollo 16 microbial response to space environment experiment

The effect was evaluated of a particular space flight on the survival rate of nine different species. Although a reasonable variety of organisms (viruses, yeasts, filamentous fungi, bacteria, and an invertebrate) were tested under several different conditions, no statistically valid differences could be detected in the survival of flight samples when compared to corresponding ground-based controls. In general, these evaluations were based on multiple observations of from ten to thirty replicates of up to one million cells each. While the results conflict with those of certain other space flight investigations, it is observed that the conditions of a particular space flight cannot be exactly duplicated, and therefore results from different flights are not directly comparable.

Gerald R. Taylor↗

Application of LANDSAT system for improving methodology for inventory and classification of wetlands

The author has identified the following significant results. A newly developed software system for generating statistics on surface water features was tested using LANDSAT data acquired previous to 1975. This software test provided a satisfactory evaluation of the system and also allowed expansion of data base on prairie water features. The software system recognizes water on the basis of a classification algorithm. This classification is accomplished by level thresholding a single near infrared data channel. After each pixel is classified as water or nonwater, the software system then recognizes ponds or lakes as sets of contiguous pixels or as single isolated pixels in the case of very small ponds. Pixels are considered to be contiguous if they are adjacent between successive scan lines. After delineating each water feature, the software system then assigns the feature a position based upon a geographic grid system and calculates the feature's planimetric area, its perimeter, and a parameter known as the shape factor.

Gilmer, D. S.↗

Monte Carlo investigation of thrust imbalance of solid rocket motor pairs

The Monte Carlo method of statistical analysis is used to investigate the theoretical thrust imbalance of pairs of solid rocket motors (SRMs) firing in parallel. Sets of the significant variables are selected using a random sampling technique and the imbalance calculated for a large number of motor pairs using a simplified, but comprehensive, model of the internal ballistics. The treatment of burning surface geometry allows for the variations in the ovality and alignment of the motor case and mandrel as well as those arising from differences in the basic size dimensions and propellant properties. The analysis is used to predict the thrust-time characteristics of 130 randomly selected pairs of Titan IIIC SRMs. A statistical comparison of the results with test data for 20 pairs shows the theory underpredicts the standard deviation in maximum thrust imbalance by 20% with variability in burning times matched within 2%. The range in thrust imbalance of Space Shuttle type SRM pairs is also estimated using applicable tolerances and variabilities and a correction factor based on the Titan IIIC analysis.

Sforzini, R. H.↗

LANDSAT menhaden and thread herring resources investigation

The author has identified the following significant results. The relationship between the distribution of menhaden and selected oceanographic parameters (water color, turbidity, and possibly chlorophyll concentrations) was established. Similar relationships for thread herring were not established nor were relationships relating to the abundance of either species. Use of aircraft and LANDSAT remote sensing instruments to measure or infer a set of basic oceanographic parameters was evaluated. Parameters which could be accurately inferred included surface water temperature, salinity, and color. Water turbidity (Secchi disk) was evaluated as marginally inferrable from the LANDSAT MSS data and chlorophyll-a concentrations as less than marginal. These evaluations considered the parameters only as experienced in the two test areas using available sensors and statistical techniques.

Kemmerer, A. J.↗

Accelerated test program

A brief discussion on the accelerated testing of batteries is given. The statistical analysis and the various aspects of the modeling that was done and the results attained from the model are also briefly discussed.

Ford, F. E.↗

The effect of surface boundary conditions on the climate generated by a coarse-mesh general circulation model

A hierarchy of experiments was run, starting with an all water planet with zonally symmetric sea surface temperatures, then adding, one at a time, flat continents, mountains, surface physics, and realistic sea surface temperatures. The model was run with the sun fixed at a perpetual January. Ensemble means and standard deviations were computed and the t-test was used to determine the statistical significance of the results. The addition of realistic surface physics does not affect the model climatology to as large as extent as does the addition of mountains. Departures from zonal symmetry of the SST field result in a better simulation of the real atmosphere.

Cohen, C.↗

Design allowables for T300/5208 graphite/epoxy composite materials

Material coupon tests were conducted to formulate design allowables for T300/5208 graphite/epoxy unidirectional tape and bidirectional fabric composites. This paper gives a description of the tests conducted, representative ply level and laminate test data, and results of the statistical analysis. The design allowables for tension and compression strength are given and include the effect of notches, impact damage, temperature extremes and moisture absorption.

Ekvall, J. C.↗

Electron acceleration in stochastic double layers

Transversely localized double layers evolve randomly in turbulent regions of strongly magnetized plasma carrying current along the magnetic field. Results from numerical simulations and spacecraft observations in the auroral plasma indicate that the parallel electric field in such regions is microscopically intermittent or stochastic. The implications of stochastic double layer fields on electron acceleration will be discussed in terms of a statistical process involving ensemble averages over test particle motion. A Fokker-Planck equation can be derived for the electron phase space density, which depends on the mean and rms amplitudes of the double layers, the mean double layer density, and the initial electron velocity distribution. It is shown that the resulting electron acceleration is very sensitive to the ratio of the initial electron energy to the rms double layer amplitude. When this ratio is large, the acceleration process differs little from that expected in a dc electric field. When it is small, stochastic heating competes with directed acceleration. Evidence for both cases can be found in the auroral ionosphere in association with so-called inverted-V precipitation and collimated edge precipitation.

Lotko, William↗

Pivotal-Function Assessment Of Reliability Of Software

Approach developed to establish utility of pivotal functions for estimation and prediction of reliability of software. Improved estimates of reliability with statistical confidence obtained when relatively few testing data available. Pivotal functions effective tools for determination of confidence limits for reliability of software and prediction limits for time to next failure. Provides exact confidence and prediction limits regardless of how many bugs found in software.

Hayhurst, Kelly J.↗

Screening for prostate cancer

Despite recent advances in both the survival and cure rates for many forms of cancer, unfortunately the same has not been true for prostate cancer. In fact, the age-adjusted death rate from prostate cancer has not significantly improved since 1949, and prostate cancer remains the most common cancer in American men, causing the second highest cancer mortality rate. Topics discussed include the following: serum testosterone levels; diagnosis; mortality statistics; prostate-sppecific antigen (PSA) tests; and the Occupational Medicine Services policy at LeRC.

Weirich, Stephen A.↗

Canopy reflectance modelling of semiarid vegetation

Three different types of remote sensing algorithms for estimating vegetation amount and other land surface biophysical parameters were tested for semiarid environments. These included statistical linear models, the Li-Strahler geometric-optical canopy model, and linear spectral mixture analysis. The two study areas were the National Science Foundation's Jornada Long Term Ecological Research site near Las Cruces, NM, in the northern Chihuahuan desert, and the HAPEX-Sahel site near Niamey, Niger, in West Africa, comprising semiarid rangeland and subtropical crop land. The statistical approach (simple and multiple regression) resulted in high correlations between SPOT satellite spectral reflectance and shrub and grass cover, although these correlations varied with the spatial scale of aggregation of the measurements. The Li-Strahler model produced estimated of shrub size and density for both study sites with large standard errors. In the Jornada, the estimates were accurate enough to be useful for characterizing structural differences among three shrub strata. In Niger, the range of shrub cover and size in short-fallow shrublands is so low that the necessity of spatially distributed estimation of shrub size and density is questionable. Spectral mixture analysis of multiscale, multitemporal, multispectral radiometer data and imagery for Niger showed a positive relationship between fractions of spectral endmembers and surface parameters of interest including soil cover, vegetation cover, and leaf area index.

Franklin, Janet↗

Satellite Network Performance Measurements Using Simulated Multi-User Internet Traffic

As a number of diverse satellite systems (both Low Earth Orbit and Geostationary systems) are being designed and deployed, it becomes increasingly important to be able to test these systems under realistic traffic loads. While software simulations can provide valuable input into the system design process, it is crucial that the physical system be tested so that actual network devices can be employed and tuned. These tests need to utilize traffic patterns that closely mirror the expected user load, without the need to actually deploy an end-user network for the test. In this paper, we present trafgen. trafgen uses statistical information about the characteristics of sampled network traffic to emulate the same type of traffic over the test network. This paper compares sampled terrestrial network traffic with emulated satellite network traffic over the NASA ACTS satellite.

Kruse, Hans↗

Three Dimensional CFD Analysis of the GTX Combustor

The annular combustor geometry of a combined-cycle engine has been analyzed with three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics. Both subsonic combustion and supersonic combustion flowfields have been simulated. The subsonic combustion analysis was executed in conjunction with a direct-connect test rig. Two cold-flow and one hot-flow results are presented. The simulations compare favorably with the test data for the two cold flow calculations; the hot-flow data was not yet available. The hot-flow simulation indicates that the conventional ejector-ramjet cycle would not provide adequate mixing at the conditions tested. The supersonic combustion ramjet flowfield was simulated with frozen chemistry model. A five-parameter test matrix was specified, according to statistical design-of-experiments theory. Twenty-seven separate simulations were used to assemble surrogate models for combustor mixing efficiency and total pressure recovery. ScramJet injector design parameters (injector angle, location, and fuel split) as well as mission variables (total fuel massflow and freestream Mach number) were included in the analysis. A promising injector design has been identified that provides good mixing characteristics with low total pressure losses. The surrogate models can be used to develop performance maps of different injector designs. Several complex three-way variable interactions appear within the dataset that are not adequately resolved with the current statistical analysis.

Steffen, C. J., Jr.↗

Three Dimensional CFD Analysis of the GTX Combustor

The annular combustor geometry of a combined-cycle engine has been analyzed with three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics. Both subsonic combustion and supersonic combustion flowfields have been simulated. The subsonic combustion analysis was executed in conjunction with a direct-connect test rig. Two cold-flow and one hot-flow results are presented. The simulations compare favorably with the test data for the two cold flow calculations; the hot-flow data was not yet available. The hot-flow simulation Indicates that the conventional ejector-ramjet cycle would not provide adequate mixing at the conditions tested. The supersonic combustion ramjet flowfield was simulated with frozen chemistry model. A five-parameter test matrix was specified, according to statistical design-of-experiments theory. Twenty-seven separate simulations were used to assemble surrogate models for combustor mixing efficiency and total pressure recovery. Scramjet injector design parameters (injector angle, location, and fuel split) as well as mission variables (total fuel mass flow and freestream Mach number) were included in the analysis. A promising injector design has been identified that provides good mixing characteristics with low total pressure losses. The surrogate models can be used to develop performance maps of different injector designs. Several complex three-way variable interactions appear within the dataset that are not adequately resolved with the current statistical analysis.

Steffen, C. J., Jr.↗

Human versus automation in responding to failures: an expected-value analysis

A simple analytical criterion is provided for deciding whether a human or automation is best for a failure detection task. The method is based on expected-value decision theory in much the same way as is signal detection. It requires specification of the probabilities of misses (false negatives) and false alarms (false positives) for both human and automation being considered, as well as factors independent of the choice--namely, costs and benefits of incorrect and correct decisions as well as the prior probability of failure. The method can also serve as a basis for comparing different modes of automation. Some limiting cases of application are discussed, as are some decision criteria other than expected value. Actual or potential applications include the design and evaluation of any system in which either humans or automation are being considered.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

Pyroshock Environments Characterized for Spacecraft Missions

Pyrotechnic shock, or pyroshock, is the transient response of a structure to loading induced by the ignition of pyrotechnic (explosive or propellant activated) devices. These devices are typically used to separate structural systems (e.g., separate a spacecraft from a launch vehicle) and deploy appendages (e.g., solar panels). Pyroshocks are characterized by high peak acceleration, high-frequency content, and short duration. Because of their high acceleration and high-frequency, pyroshocks can cause spaceflight hardware to fail. Verifying by test that spaceflight hardware can withstand the anticipated shock environment is considered essential to mission success. The Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 spacecraft for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth is scheduled to be launched on an Atlas IIAS vehicle in 1999, and the NASA Lewis Research Center is the launch vehicle integrator for this NASA Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft. The EOS spacecraft was subjected to numerous ground shock tests to verify that its scientific instruments and avionics components will withstand the shock-induced vibration produced when the spacecraft separates from the launch vehicle. Shock test data from these tests represent the third largest available pyroshock database in the United States. Future spacecraft missions will directly benefit from the knowledge gained from these tests. The payload separation system used for EOS is a new system that operates by firing six separation nuts. This system was tested to verify its functional operation and to characterize the resulting shock levels. The launch vehicle contractor (Lockheed Martin Astronautics) and spacecraft contractor (Lockheed Martin Missiles & Space) completed 16 separation test firings. This resulted in an unusually large amount of pyroshock data. Typically, only one or two pyroshock test firings are performed for a spacecraft mission. Because of the size of this separation system shock database, engineers were able to perform unique statistical analyses to characterize the distribution of the test data. For example, it was proven that the shock data follow a lognormal distribution, a concept often assumed but rarely proven. The test-to-test repeatability of the shock source level was analyzed, and the effects of various test configurations and separation nut production lots were examined and quantified. Engineers investigated the change in shock level as the shock traveled from the spacecraft separation interface to the avionics components of the upper stage and analyzed the effects of the structural fidelity (simulator versus real) of the components and their weight on vibrational response. In addition, the shock attenuation with distance and across joints was quantified and compared with concepts originally generated in 1970, and the effects of separation nut preload and firing sequences effects were examined. Because of this EOS shock testing and the analyses performed at NASA Lewis, a significant amount of new information on pyroshock and its characteristics is now available to the aerospace industry. We hope that this information will help future spacecraft test planners to perform better and cheaper spacecraft separation shock tests and to better understand their test data.

Hughes, William O.↗

Mach 10 Stage Separation Analysis for the X43-A

This paper describes the pre-flight stage separation analysis that was conducted in support of the final flight of the X-43A. In that flight, which occurred less than eight months after the successful Mach 7 flight, the X-43A Research Vehicle attained a peak speed of Mach 9.6. Details are provided on how the lessons learned from the Mach 7 flight affected separation modeling and how adjustments were made to account for the increased flight Mach number. Also, the procedure for defining the feedback loop closure and feed-forward parameters employed in the separation control logic are described, and their effect on separation performance is explained. In addition, the range and nominal values of these parameters, which were included in the Mission Data Load, are presented. Once updates were made, the nominal pre-flight trajectory and Monte Carlo statistical results were determined and stress tests were performed to ensure system robustness. During flight the vehicle performed within the uncertainty bounds predicted in the pre-flight analysis and ultimately set the world record for airbreathing powered flight.

Tartabini, Paul V.↗