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DOE OSTI2020

Observational Study of the Thermodynamics and Morphological Characteristics of a Midlatitude Continental Cold Pool Event

Abstract Convectively generated cold pools are important to the Earth system as they exert strong controls on deep convective-storm initiation, intensity, and life cycle. Despite their importance, efforts to introduce such cold pool controls into weather and climate models lack guidance and/or physical constraints from cold pool observations. This work presents a detailed, purely observational analysis of a cold pool event that took place on 23–24 May 2011 in north-central Oklahoma. The characteristics of the cold pool, and the spatiotemporal evolution of the hydrometeors and dynamics in the proximity of the cold pool, are studied with high-resolution observations. The unprecedented dataset used in this work to study cold pool characteristics includes an enhanced network of surface weather stations, a high-temporal-frequency sounding array, and the NEXRAD and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains radar networks. The potential use of NEXRAD surveillance scans to estimate height and propagation speed of the leading edge of the cold pool (LECP) is presented in this work. Manual identification and tracking of the LECP from NEXRAD imagery shows a spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the LECP properties. Surprisingly, over its detected life cycle, the LECP speed remains almost constant, even though the strength of the cold pool diminishes in time and its height varies. Radar analysis shows that pulses of graupel and hail within downdrafts in the convective system generating the cold pool appeared to be related to temporary increases in the LECP height.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interseismic Strain Accumulation between the Colorado Plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone: Implications for the Seismic Hazard near Las Vegas, Nevada

ABSTRACT Crustal deformation in the central Basin and Range between the Colorado plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone is active but slow, making it a challenge to assess how strain is distributed and crustal motion transferred. However, knowledge of strain rates is very important, particularly for addressing the seismic hazard for both the Las Vegas urban area and the site of the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, in southern Nevada. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provide important constraints, particularly now that the GPS network in the area has substantially expanded in recent years. However, because deformation is slow, it is important to mitigate any transient tectonic and nontectonic signals to obtain the most accurate long-term interseismic motion and robust estimation of strain rates. We use data from all GPS stations in the region including both long-running continuous and semicontinuous stations. We model and remove postseismic displacements at these stations using source parameters for 41 events, dating back to the 1700 Cascadia megathrust earthquake, which contribute significantly to the deformation field within the central Basin and Range. We also remove correlated noise from the time series with the common-mode component imaging technique. We find that removal of both the postseismic transients and common-mode noise substantially reduces the uncertainties and spatial variation in the velocities. We find east–west extension across the Las Vegas Valley of 0.5–0.6 mm/yr. The interseismic strain rate field, calculated with the final velocities, reveals higher strain rates through southern Nevada than in previous studies, with rates within Las Vegas Valley of 8.5±2.4×10−9 yr−1. Our results also confirm shear along the Pahranagat shear zone, but the estimated amplitude is strongly affected by postseismic relaxation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS2020

Global-scale distribution of ozone in the remote troposphere from ATom and HIPPO airborne field missions

Ozone is a key constituent of the troposphere, where it drives photochemical processes, impacts air quality, and acts as a climate forcer. Large-scale in situ observations of ozone commensurate with the grid resolution of current Earth system models are necessary to validate model outputs and satellite retrievals. In this paper, we examine measurements from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom; four deployments in 2016–2018) and the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO; five deployments in 2009–2011) experiments, two global-scale airborne campaigns covering the Pacific and Atlantic basins. ATom and HIPPO represent the first global-scale, vertically resolved measurements of O3 distributions throughout the troposphere, with HIPPO sampling the atmosphere over the Pacific and ATom sampling both the Pacific and Atlantic. Given the relatively limited temporal resolution of these two campaigns, we first compare ATom and HIPPO ozone data to longer-term observational records to establish the representativeness of our dataset. We show that these two airborne campaigns captured on average 53 %, 54 %, and 38 % of the ozone variability in the marine boundary layer, free troposphere, and upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS), respectively, at nine well-established ozonesonde sites. Additionally, ATom captured the most frequent ozone concentrations measured by regular commercial aircraft flights in the northern Atlantic UTLS. We then use the repeated vertical profiles from these two campaigns to confirm and extend the existing knowledge of tropospheric ozone spatial and vertical distributions throughout the remote troposphere. We highlight a clear hemispheric gradient, with greater ozone in the Northern Hemisphere, consistent with greater precursor emissions and consistent with previous modeling and satellite studies. We also show that the ozone distribution below 8 km was similar in the extra-tropics of the Atlantic and Pacific basins, likely due to zonal circulation patterns. However, twice as much ozone was found in the tropical Atlantic as in the tropical Pacific, due to well-documented dynamical patterns transporting continental air masses over the Atlantic. Finally, we show that the seasonal variability of tropospheric ozone over the Pacific and the Atlantic basins is driven year-round by transported continental plumes and photochemistry, and the vertical distribution is driven by photochemistry and mixing with stratospheric air. This new dataset provides additional constraints for global climate and chemistry models to improve our understanding of both ozone production and loss processes in remote regions, as well as the influence of anthropogenic emissions on baseline ozone.

ATom, aircraft profiles, Atlantic pollution, ozone↗

NASA NTRS2024

Testing of Advanced Capabilities to Enable In-time Safety Management and Assurance for Future Flight Operations

In order to refine an initial Concept of Operations, explore Concepts of Use, and expose/validate requirements for future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS), testing architectures were created, along with a set of capabilities and underlying information exchange protocols. These systems were conceived and developed based on hazards associated with two envisioned urban area flight domains: (1) highly autonomous small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) operating at low altitudes, and (2) highly autonomous air taxis. The initial scope of this development is described in [1]; this report provides an update, focusing on the subsequent developments and test activities. As stated in [1], it is important to note that there are many capabilities already in use by the industry (or soon to be in use) that will play critical roles in future IASMS designs. Those reported here were developed to address a gap in the current state-of-the-art regarding specific hazards/risks, and/or to allow for investigation of the interplay between and across hazard types — particularly regarding how overall safety risk can be reduced or managed effectively. Results of testing and development activities are organized by the operational phase wherein a particular capability would be employed (i.e., preflight, in-flight, and post-flight/off-line). Pre-flight: A set of capabilities were developed to help mitigate safety risk prior to flight (e.g., during flight and mission planning). Results of testing summarize (1) validation activities to raise the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and (2) evaluation activities where the capabilities were applied to flight/mission planning procedures and used by operators/pilots. For the latter, flight plans were automatically assessed, and operators/pilots were notified of hazardous flight segments so as to enable adjustment of the flight plan and re-evaluation, and/or to better inform go/no-go decisions. Capabilities addressed hazards associated with power consumption, third-party risk, wind, navigation system performance, radiofrequency interference, and proximity to geo-spatial threats (e.g., buildings, trees, and no-fly zones). In-flight: Flight experiments tested capabilities that detect and respond to hazards encountered during flight. In the first series, safety hazards were monitored and assessed onboard, and system-generated mitigation maneuvers were recorded (but not acted upon by the vehicle). In the second series, mitigation maneuver commands directed the aircraft in response to safety hazards (i.e., auto-mitigation). The sUAS used for testing is described in full, as is the test architecture, which included commercial avionics, research avionics, and onboard software designed to detect, assess, and respond to hazards. The onboard system was designed as a run-time assurance framework, consistent with [2] and supportive of both supervisory and automated modes. The primary functions included: real-time risk assessment (RTRA), auto-pilot monitoring, constraint monitoring, and contingency select/triggering. RTRA performs integrated risk assessment considering data from several hazard-related monitors (e.g., battery, motors, navigation, communications, population density, and loss-of-control). Post-flight/off-line: Data monitored and recorded during flights can enable IASMS capabilities that execute after flights have completed (or “off-line”). These include: (1) the ability to identify anomalies and trends that may only be observable when comparing data spanning a number of similar flights; (2) the ability to update and validate pre-flight and in-flight capabilities and any underlying models to improve their performance; (3) the ability to report anomalies/off-nominals that may indicate design changes or maintenance actions are needed; and (4) the ability for humans involved in operations to report safety-relevant observations to help in understanding the flight data and/or the operational context of a flight. Progress on three such capabilities is summarized; the first investigates anomaly detection given a limited set of flight logs and applies an approach previously used for space operations. The second explores what could be identified using a larger set of flight logs, including from web-based forums where flight logs are posted by sUAS autopilot users. The third creates a new means of collecting information on UAS incidents and accidents via the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS).

sUAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential while Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential While Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics: Preprint

exclusions↗

DOE OSTI2023

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Geothermal Supply Curves

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. The included paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results provided here should be considered with care due to the high uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for three scenarios: two hydrothermal (3.5km depth, USGS heat flow & SMU temperatures respectively) and one EGS (4.5km depth, SMU temperatures). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Confronting Dark Matter with the Multiwavelength Sky (Final Technical Report)

The existence of dark matter is a key clue to new fundamental physics, yet its nature and non-gravitational interactions remain mysterious. In the course of this five-year project (spanning July 2015 - July 2020), we have developed novel analysis techniques to separate dark matter signals from astrophysical backgrounds in the inner Galaxy, and measured hitherto-unknown properties of the Fermi Bubbles and the Galactic Center excess in gamma-rays from the inner Milky Way. We have improved predictions for the spatial distribution and energy spectra of photon signals from dark matter, and set new limits from astrophysical and cosmological datasets on dark matter inhabiting complex dark sectors, multi-particle dark matter annihilation, and tiny primordial black holes. We have successfully adapted effective field theory techniques from collider physics to make high-precision predictions for signals from heavy weakly-interacting DM, allowing us to essentially exclude the possibility that DM is a thermal wino, and have discovered novel theoretical and observational implications for dark matter bound states and self-interactions. We have developed a comprehensive public code package for modeling the effects of exotic energy injections, such as from dark matter annihilation and decay, on the ionization and temperature history of the early cosmos, and have used these tools to set robust, powerful and broadly-applicable constraints on models of light dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fragmentation analysis of a bar with the Lip-field approach

The Lip-field approach was introduced in Moës and Chevaugeon (2021) as a new way to regularize softening material models. It was tested in 1D quasistatic in Moës and Chevaugeon (2021) and 2D quasistatic in Chevaugeon and Moës (2021): this paper extends it to 1D dynamics, on the challenging problem of dynamic fragmentation. The Lip-field approach formulates the mechanical problem to be solved as an optimization problem, where the incremental potential to be minimized is the non-regularized one. Spurious localization is prevented by imposing a Lipschitz constraint on the damage field. Here, the displacement and damage field at each time step are obtained by a staggered algorithm, that is the displacement field is computed for a fixed damage field, then the damage field is computed for a fixed displacement field. Indeed, these two problems are convex, which is not the case of the global problem where the displacement and damage fields are sought at the same time. The incremental potential is obtained by equivalence with a cohesive zone model, which makes material parameters calibration simple. A non-regularized local damage equivalent to a cohesive zone model is also proposed. It is used as a reference for the Lip-field approach, without the need to implement displacement jumps. These approaches are applied to the brittle fragmentation of a 1D bar with randomly perturbed material properties to accelerate spatial convergence. Both explicit and implicit dynamic implementations are compared. Favorable comparison to several analytical, numerical and experimental references serves to validate the modeling approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

DIF3D-VARIANT 12.0: Updates and New Features

The DIF3D code has been a workhorse of fast reactor analysis work at Argonne National Laboratory for over 40 years. In 1995, a transport option called VARIANT was added to DIF3D to improve the flux solutions for fast reactor problems which we term DIF3D-VARIANT today. DIF3D-VARIANT performs nodal neutron transport calculations using P N or SP N theory in Cartesian and hexagonal two- and three-dimensional geometries. The limited computing capabilities of the time restricted DIF3D-VARIANT to use at most a 6 th order spatial approximation combined with a P3 flux approximation and P1 scattering kernel for a 33 group structure on most studied reactor problems. Computer capabilities have increased steadily since 1995 and today much larger space-angle-energy approximations are possible. This manuscript serves as an update to the theory section of the original DIF3D-VARIANT manual and details more than twenty years of changes made to DIF3D to make version 12 which was released on November 1 st , 2024. The primary focus of the initial work was to extend the space-angle approximations available in DIF3D-VARIANT such that the error due to transport approximations could be better understood. This work was started and completed in 2002 and marked the official version 10. Unfortunately, those higher order approximations could not be used at that time due to the memory constraints of the BPOINTER part of DIF3D (limited to 2 GB). In version 11, completed in 2012, BPOINTER was circumvented in DIF3D-VARIANT for the largest arrays by introducing a Fortran 90 module called LMA (Large Memory Array). This seamlessly replaces all of the functionality of the BPOINTER concept, but it allows 64 bit addressing for every array such that they can be larger than 2 GB. It is now common for DIF3D-VARIANT jobs to consume 50 GB of memory on modern workstations when using high order space-angle approximations and a large number of groups. Many improvements were made to version 11 from 2012 to 2022 when work to create version 12 started. For version 12, several parts of DIF3D were updated to improve performance and thread parallelism was introduced to further reduce the runtime. Numerous minor bugs were discovered in DIF3D-VARIANT as part of the process of creating the perturbation and sensitivity code PERSENT. All of these algorithmic problems were identified in the transition from version 10 to version 11 which prevented DIF3D-VARIANT from running efficiently and reliably. Firstly, the coarse mesh rebalance scheme would routinely diverge and a study detailed in this report demonstrates how it was also typically not effective. This is not a failure of the coarse mesh rebalance methodology, but a failure of its implementation in DIF3D-VARIANT for hexagonal geometries. The fission source extrapolation algorithm was also found to be unreliable on larger group structure problems, leading to divergence in some cases and a negligible improvement in performance overall. Finally, the “Omega” acceleration applied to the partial current solver routine of DIF3D-VARIANT was found to cause DIF3D-VARIANT to converge to the wrong answer. To resolve these issues, both the coarse mesh rebalance and fission source extrapolation were permanently disabled in version 11. The Tchebychev acceleration was put in as a temporary reliable alternative but it is generally inferior to coarse mesh rebalance or coarse mesh finite difference. For the Omega acceleration, the factor was restricted to guarantee that it would not cause follow-on errors in PERSENT. Due to limited funding to support maintenance and development of DIF3D in the last 10 years, no effort was spent since to resolve the outer iteration acceleration. Except for the threading work, all of the changes discussed in this manuscript refer to changes made between version 10 and version 11. Performance comparisons are done to demonstrate the improvements from version 9 to version 12. As will be demonstrated, the updated versi

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Directivity Modes of Earthquake Populations with Unsupervised Learning

We present a novel approach for resolving modes of rupture directivity in large populations of earthquakes. A seismic spectral decomposition technique is used to first produce relative measurements of radiated energy for earthquakes in a spatially compact cluster. The azimuthal distribution of energy for each earthquake is then assumed to result from one of several distinct modes of rupture propagation. Rather than fitting a kinematic rupture model to determine the most likely mode of rupture propagation, we instead treat the modes as latent variables and learn them with a Gaussian mixture model. The mixture model simultaneously determines the number of events that best identify with each mode. The technique is demonstrated on four datasets in California, each with compact clusters of several thousand earthquakes with comparable slip mechanisms. We show that the datasets naturally decompose into distinct rupture propagation modes that correspond to different rupture directions, and the fault plane is unambiguously identified for all cases. We find that these small earthquakes exhibit unilateral ruptures 63–73% of the time on average. Here, the results provide important observational constraints on the physics of earthquakes and faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stable and tunable MeV $$\gamma$$-ray generation via dual-laser inverse Thomson scattering from a laser-plasma accelerator

Abstract Inverse Thomson scattering from laser-plasma accelerators offers a pathway to compact, tunable MeV $$\gamma$$ -ray sources for reduced-dose radiography and enhanced performance in nuclear resonance fluorescence (NRF)-based isotope identification. However, photon yield and spectral quality are often limited by constraints on interaction geometry and scatter-laser tunability. Here we demonstrate a MeV $$\gamma$$ -ray source based on a dual-laser inverse Thomson scattering configuration driven by a 100-TW laser-plasma accelerator. Electron beams tunable from 122 to 204 MeV with $$<5$$ mrad divergence and $$<1$$ mrad pointing stability generate $$\gamma$$ rays with peak energies from 276 keV to 1.2 MeV and yields up to $$2\times 10^{7}$$ photons per shot. By independently controlling the interaction position and the scatter-pulse duration, we experimentally match the scatter pulse to the walk-off-limited interaction length. Extending the scatter pulse to 200 fs increases photon production by approximately $$15\%$$ while maintaining operation in the linear Thomson regime, thereby preserving narrow spectral bandwidth and controlled radiation divergence. Radiographic characterization demonstrates MeV-level penetration and $$\approx 0.1$$ mm spatial resolution, while stable operation is sustained over multi-hour timescales across multiple days. These results show that interaction-length optimization provides a scalable strategy for improving photon yield, spectral control, and operational stability in compact laser-plasma-accelerator-driven $$\gamma$$ -ray sources.

Tsai, Hai-En↗

NASA NTRS1981

The Gemini-Monoceros X-ray enhancement - A giant X-ray ring

A 1.5 deg spatial resolution map of the 1/4 KeV diffuse X-ray background enhancement in the Gemini and Monoceros constellations is found to show a circular ring-shaped emission feature with a diameter of 20 deg. The feature and possible X-ray contributions from the Mon OB1 association and neighboring supernova remnants are discussed. From 300 pc, the region has a radius of 50 pc, with an emitting electron density of 0.01 per cu cm. A shell of expanding neutral hydrogen and nonthermal radio spur is observed outside the ring with the X-ray emitting pulsar PSR 0656 + 14 lying close to the center of the ring. Origins of the ring are discussed, ruling out formation by the association Mon OB1. The ring is considered to be a field supernova remnant formed by the progenitor of the central pulsar, and providing constraints on theories of remnant evolution. This conclusion is found to agree with estimated supernova rates, and the absence of additional examples of this stage of evolution is an observational selection effect.

Nousek, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Non-Intrusive Laser-Induced Imaging for Speciation and Patternation in High Pressure Gas Turbine Combustors

The next generation of was turbine combustors for aerospace applications will be required to meet increasingly stringent constraints on fuel efficiency, noise abatement, and emissions. The power plants being designed to meet these constraints will operate at extreme conditions of temperature and pressure, thereby generating unique challenges to the previously employed diagnostic methodologies. Current efforts at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) utilize optically accessible, high pressure flametubes and sector combustor rigs to probe, via advanced nonintrusive laser techniques, the complex flowfields encountered in advanced combustor designs. The fuel-air mixing process is of particular concern for lowering NO(x) emissions generated in lean, premixed engine concepts. Using planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) we have obtained real-time, detailed imaging of the fuel spray distribution for a number of fuel injector over a wide range of operational conditions that closely match those expected in the proposed propulsion systems. Using a novel combination of planar imaging, of fuel fluorescence and computational analysis that allows an examination of the flowfield from any perspective, we have produced spatially and temporally resolved fuel-air distribution maps. These maps provide detailed insight into the fuel injection at actual conditions never before possible, thereby greatly enhancing the evaluation of fuel injector performance and combustion phenomena.

Locke, Randy J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spectrally Resolving High Redshift Dual AGNs with the Line Emission Mapper

The Line Emission Mapper (LEM) is an X-ray Probe-class Mission concept which combines 1-2 eV spectral resolution in the soft X-ray band (0.2-2 keV) with an effective area of ~2600 cm^2 at 1 keV, and 10’’ HPD over a large 30'x30' field of view. The mission will directly address the Astro2020 Decadal Report’s Priority Area of Unveiling the Drivers of Galaxy Growth through the study of merging galaxies, which offer one of the most dramatic channels for galaxy growth and evolution and can potentially trigger both star formation and supermassive black hole (SMBH) growth. Dual and binary AGNs in late-stage mergers are predicted to be a critical stage of merger-induced SMBH growth and coincide with the most transformative period for the host galaxies. Thus, dual and binary AGNs represent ideal laboratories for studying examples of SMBH-galaxy co-evolution. Recent discoveries of dual AGNs at redshifts of z~>2 have been made via optical observations, but such dual AGNs are inaccessible to current X-ray observatories due to a lack of instrumental capabilities, including sensitivity, spectral and spatial resolution. LEM will be uniquely suited to study AGNs at z > 3, where the intrinsic X-ray power law continuum and Iron K alpha emission line - a nearly ubiquitous signpost for AGN accretion – are redshifted into the LEM bandpass. In this poster, we present a simulation-based study on LEM’s ability to discern dual, binary, and/or clustered AGNs at high redshift. We demonstrate the unique capabilities of LEM to spectrally resolve Iron K-alpha lines emitted by distinct AGNs with sufficient line-of-sight velocity differences, even in cases of convolved point sources. Using a suite of simulations probing a range of velocity differences, line strengths, and column densities, we demonstrate LEM’s ability to constrain the spectral properties of dual AGNs at z>3 for a variety of physically realistic pairings. LEM will uniquely provide crucial constraints on dual AGN environments and activity as a function of redshift and will complement optical and infrared observations from upcoming Extremely Large Telescopes.

Ryan W Pfeifle↗

NASA NTRS2021

Improved Constraints on Global Methane Emissions and Sinks Using δ13C-CH4

We study the drivers behind the global atmospheric methane (CH4) increase observed after 2006. Candidate emission and sink scenarios are constructed based on proposed hypotheses in the literature. These scenarios are simulated in the TM5 tracer transport model for 1984–2016 to produce three-dimensional fields of CH4 and δ13C-CH4, which are compared with observations to test the competing hypotheses in the literature in one common model framework. We find that the fossil fuel (FF) CH4 emission trend from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.3.2 inventory does not agree with observed δ13C-CH4. Increased FF CH4 emissions are unlikely to be the dominant driver for the post-2006 global CH4 increase despite the possibility for a small FF emission increase. We also find that a significant decrease in the abundance of hydroxyl radicals (OH) cannot explain the post-2006 global CH4 increase since it does not track the observed decrease in global mean δ13C-CH4. Different CH4 sinks have different fractionation factors for δ13C-CH4, thus we can investigate the uncertainty introduced by the reaction of CH4 with tropospheric chlorine (Cl), a CH4 sink whose abundance, spatial distribution, and temporal changes remain uncertain. Our results show that including or excluding tropospheric Cl as a 13 Tg/year CH4 sink in our model changes the magnitude of estimated fossil emissions by ∼20%. We also found that by using different wetland emissions based on a static versus a dynamic wetland area map, the partitioning between FF and microbial sources differs by 20 Tg/year, ∼12% of estimated fossil emissions.

X. Lan↗

NASA NTRS2020

An AeroCom–AeroSat study: intercomparison of satellite AOD datasets for aerosol model evaluation

To better understand and characterize current uncertainties in the important observational constraint of climate models of aerosol optical depth (AOD), we evaluate and intercompare 14 satellite products, representing nine different retrieval algorithm families using observations from five different sensors on six different platforms. The satellite products (super-observations consisting of 1°×1° daily aggregated retrievals drawn from the years 2006, 2008 and 2010) are evaluated with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) data. Results show that different products exhibit different regionally varying biases (both under- and overestimates) that may reach ±50 %, although a typical bias would be 15 %–25 % (depending on the product). In addition to these biases, the products exhibit random errors that can be 1.6 to 3 times as large. Most products show similar performance, although there are a few exceptions with either larger biases or larger random errors. The intercomparison of satellite products extends this analysis and provides spatial context to it. In particular, we show that aggregated satellite AOD agrees much better than the spatial coverage (often driven by cloud masks) within the 1°×1° grid cells. Up to ∼50 % of the difference between satellite AOD is attributed to cloud contamination. The diversity in AOD products shows clear spatial patterns and varies from 10 % (parts of the ocean) to 100 % (central Asia and Australia). More importantly, we show that the diversity may be used as an indication of AOD uncertainty, at least for the better performing products. This provides modellers with a global map of expected AOD uncertainty in satellite products, allows assessment of products away from AERONET sites, can provide guidance for future AERONET locations and offers suggestions for product improvements. We account for statistical and sampling noise in our analyses. Sampling noise, variations due to the evaluation of different subsets of the data, causes important changes in error metrics. The consequences of this noise term for product evaluation are discussed.

Aerosol↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed latent neural operator for real-time predictions of time-dependent parametric PDEs

Deep operator network (DeepONet) has shown significant promise as surrogate models for systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), enabling accurate mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. However, when applied to systems with high-dimensional input-output mappings arising from large numbers of spatial and temporal collocation points, these models often require heavily overparameterized networks, leading to long training times. Latent DeepONet addresses some of these challenges by introducing a two-step approach: first learning a reduced latent space using a separate model, followed by operator learning within this latent space. While efficient, this method is inherently data-driven and lacks mechanisms for incorporating physical laws, limiting its robustness and generalizability in data-scarce settings. Here, in this work, we propose PI-Latent-NO, a physics-informed latent neural operator framework that integrates governing physics directly into the learning process. Our architecture features two coupled DeepONets trained end-to-end: a Latent-DeepONet that learns a low-dimensional representation of the solution, and a Reconstruction-DeepONet that maps this latent representation back to the physical space. By embedding PDE constraints into the training via automatic differentiation, our method eliminates the need for labeled training data and ensures physics-consistent predictions. The proposed framework is both memory and compute-efficient, exhibiting near-constant scaling with problem size and demonstrating significant speedups over traditional physics-informed operator models. We validate our approach on a range of parametric PDEs, showcasing its accuracy, scalability, and suitability for real-time prediction in complex physical systems.

Latent representations↗