Results for “replication” — Page 54

DOE OSTI2023

QUOTAS: A New Research Platform for the Data-driven Discovery of Black Holes

We present QUOTAS, a novel research platform for the data-driven investigation of supermassive black hole (SMBH) populations. While SMBH data—observations and simulations—have grown in complexity and abundance, our computational environments and tools have not matured commensurately to exhaust opportunities for discovery. To explore the BH, host galaxy, and parent dark matter halo connection—in this pilot version—we assemble and colocate the high-redshift, z > 3 quasar population alongside simulated data at the same cosmic epochs. As a first demonstration of the utility of QUOTAS, we investigate correlations between observed Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) quasars and their hosts with those derived from simulations. Leveraging machine-learning algorithms (ML), to expand simulation volumes, we show that halo properties extracted from smaller dark-matter-only simulation boxes successfully replicate halo populations in larger boxes. Next, using the Illustris-TNG300 simulation that includes baryonic physics as the training set, we populate the larger LEGACY Expanse dark-matter-only box with quasars, and show that observed SDSS quasar occupation statistics are accurately replicated. First science results from QUOTAS comparing colocated observational and ML-trained simulated data at z3 are presented. QUOTAS demonstrates the power of ML, in analyzing and exploring large data sets, while also offering a unique opportunity to interrogate theoretical assumptions that underpin accretion and feedback models. QUOTAS and all related materials are publicly available at the Google Kaggle platform. (The full data set—observational data and simulation data—are available at: https://www.kaggle.com/ and the codes are available at:https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/quotasplatform/quotas)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Antimicrobial activity of bacteriophage derived triple fusion protein against Staphylococcus aureus

The increasing spread of antibiotic-resistant microorganisms has led to the necessity of developing alternative antimicrobial treatments. The use of peptidoglycan hydrolases is a promising approach to combat bacterial infections. In our study, we constructed a 2 kb-triple-acting fusion gene (TF) encoding the N-terminal amidase-5 domain of streptococcal LambdaSA2 prophage endolysin (Dglutamine-L-lysin endopeptidase), a mid-protein amidase-2 domain derived from the staphylococcal phage 2638A endolysin (N-acetylmuramoyl-L-alanine amidase) and the mature version (246 residues) of the Staphylococcus simulans Lysostaphin bacteriocin (glycyl-glycine endopeptidase) at the C-terminus. The TF gene was expressed in Nicotiana benthamiana plants using the nonreplicating Cowpea mosaic virus (CPMV)-based vector pEAQ-HT and the replicating Alternanthera mosaic virus (AltMV)-based pGD5TGB1L8823-MCS-CP3 vector, and in Escherichia coli using pET expression vectors pET26b+ and pET28a+. The resulting poor expression of this fusion protein in plants prompted the construction of a TF gene codon-optimized for expression in tobacco plants, resulting in an improved codon adaptation index (CAI) from 0.79 (TF gene) to 0.93 (TFnt gene). Incorporation of the TFnt gene into the pEAQ-HT vector, followed by transient expression in N. benthamiana, led to accumulation of TFnt to an approximate level of 0.12 mg/g of fresh leaf weight. Antimicrobial activity of purified plant- and bacterial-produced TFnt proteins was assessed against two strains of Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus 305 and Newman. The results showed that plant-produced TFnt protein was preferentially active against S. aureus 305, showing 14% of growth inhibition, while the bacterial-produced TFnt revealed significant antimicrobial activity against both strains, showing 68 (IC50 25 µg/ml) and 60% (IC50 71 µg/ml) growth inhibition against S. aureus 305 and Newman, respectively. Although the combination of codon optimization and transient expression using the non-replicating pEAQ-HT expression vector facilitated production of the TFnt protein in plants, the most functionally active antimicrobial protein was obtained using the prokaryotic expression system.

codon optimization↗

DOE OSTI2014

Immortalization of normal human mammary epithelial cells in two steps by direct targeting of senescence barriers does not require gross genomic alterations

Telomerase reactivation and immortalization are critical for human carcinoma progression. However, little is known about the mechanisms controlling this crucial step, due in part to the paucity of experimentally tractable model systems that can examine human epithelial cell immortalization as it might occur in vivo. We achieved efficient non-clonal immortalization of normal human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) by directly targeting the 2 main senescence barriers encountered by cultured HMEC. The stress-associated stasis barrier was bypassed using shRNA to p16INK4; replicative senescence due to critically shortened telomeres was bypassed in post-stasis HMEC by c-MYC transduction. Thus, 2 pathologically relevant oncogenic agents are sufficient to immortally transform normal HMEC. The resultant non-clonal immortalized lines exhibited normal karyotypes. Most human carcinomas contain genomically unstable cells, with widespread instability first observed in vivo in pre-malignant stages; in vitro, instability is seen as finite cells with critically shortened telomeres approach replicative senescence. Our results support our hypotheses that: (1) telomere-dysfunction induced genomic instability in pre-malignant finite cells may generate the errors required for telomerase reactivation and immortalization, as well as many additional “passenger” errors carried forward into resulting carcinomas; (2) genomic instability during cancer progression is needed to generate errors that overcome tumor suppressive barriers, but not required per se; bypassing the senescence barriers by direct targeting eliminated a need for genomic errors to generate immortalization. Achieving efficient HMEC immortalization, in the absence of “passenger” genomic errors, should facilitate examination of telomerase regulation during human carcinoma progression, and exploration of agents that could prevent immortalization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Cyclo-Pentane Impurities on the Autoignition Reactivity and Properties of a Gasoline Surrogate Fuel

Surrogate fuels that reproduce the characteristics of full-boiling range fuels are key tools to enable numerical simulations of fuel-related processes and ensure reproducibility of experiments by eliminating batch-to-batch variability. Within the PACE initiative, a surrogate fuel for regular-grade E10 (10%vol ethanol) gasoline representative of a U.S. market gasoline, termed PACE-20, was developed and adopted as baseline fuel for the consortium. Although extensive testing demonstrated that PACE-20 replicates the properties and combustion behavior of the full-boiling range gasoline, several concerns arose regarding the purity level required for the species that compose PACE-20. This is particularly important for cyclo-pentane, since commercial-grade cyclo-pentane typically shows 60%–85% purity. Here, in the present work, the effects of the purity level of cyclo-pentane on the properties and combustion characteristics of PACE-20 were studied. Chemical kinetic simulations were performed to predict the effects of cyclo-pentane impurities on the properties, octane rating, and autoignition reactivity under homogeneous charge compression-ignition conditions of PACE-20. From the numerical results, cyclo-pentane with 85% purity or higher is required to reasonably match both the research octane number and motor octane number of the target gasoline. Finally, homogeneous charge compression-ignition engine simulations show that impurities have only a modest effect on reactivity at naturally aspirated conditions, but cyclo-pentane purity is critical to properly replicate the pressure dependency of the reactivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: Mathematical foundation and its applications

Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over the past decades, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling and experimental and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under global change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production, NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, which is the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Moreover, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3-D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. In addition, the physical emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. Altogether, this new mathematical framework offers new approaches to understanding, evaluating, diagnosing, and improving land C cycle models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

1000 Soils Pilot Dataset, version 8, May 2025

This record hosts data generated by the 1000 Soils Pilot. Data will be updated as more become available. Please see the most recent data upload for current data. A beta visualization tool is available for some data types at https://shinyproxy.emsl.pnnl.gov/app/1000soils. Please submit any suggestions or comments through the 'contact' tab. We are actively working to improve visualizations and value all feedback. Data completed include: Geochemistry, texture, respiration, and enzyme activities FTICR-MS organic matter chemistry Microbial biomass C and N TOC/TDN of water-extractable OM X-ray computed tomography (derived metrics available here, raw data available upon request) Metagenomes; a variety of data formats are available upon request Soil hydraulic properties Data in progress: LC-MS/MS in development, timeline TBD, inquire for status 1000S_processed_BGC_summary.csv contains all available biogeochemical data; microbial biomass C and N; and TOC/TDN of water-extractable OM; and 1000S_Tomography.xslx contains a summary of data generated via X-ray computed tomography. icr_v2_corems2.csv contains FTICR-MS data processed by CoreMS version 2. These data are merged by formula across instrument runs to enable cross-sample comparisons. Technical replicates are merged by retaining peaks present in 2 out of 3 replicates. 1000Soils_Metadata_Site_Mastersheet_v1.csv contains site information. Soil Hydraulics_corrected_02042025.xlsx contains soil hydraulics information. Readme File_v4.xlsx is the readme file. Please contact the MONet project (monet.emsl@pnnl.gov) or Emily Graham (emily.graham@pnnl.gov) with questions. The following file and all raw data are available upon request: icr_by_mass_for_single_sample_analysis_only.csv contains FTICR-MS data processed by CoreMS and is intended for usage in the calculation of biochemical transformations within samples only. These data are not acceptable for cross-sample comparison of masses because they are from multiple instrument runs. For more information, please see: https://www.emsl.pnnl.gov/monet and https://sc-data.emsl.pnnl.gov/monet Acknowledgment: Soil data were provided by the Molecular Observation Network (MONet) at the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (https://ror.org/04rc0xn13), a DOE Office of Science user facility sponsored by the Biological and Environmental Research program under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830. The work (proposal: 10.46936/10.25585/60008970) conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy, Joint Genome Institute (https://ror.org/04xm1d337), a DOE Office of Science user facility, is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy operated under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The Molecular Observation Network (MONet) database is an open, FAIR, and publicly available compilation of the molecular and microstructural properties of soil. Data in the MONet open science database can be found at https://sc-data.emsl.pnnl.gov/.

biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Original images, ground truth annotations, and precited masks from U-NET for a fungal species x nitrogen experiment

This document describes the “MicroVision-MV003” dataset. This folder contains three subfolders: “originals”, “predicted_masks”, and “gt_masks”. The “originals” folder contains 720 original images acquired using two imaging modalities: 360 images from overhead imaging and 360 images from transmission (raw) imaging. Naming scheme:YYYY-MM-dd__plate_strain_nitrogen-level_replication_experiment_imaging-modalityYYYY-MM-dd: 2024-12-20, 2024-12-21, 2024-12-22,2024-12-23,2024-12-24,2024-12-25,2024-12-26,2024-12-27,2024-12-28,2024-12-29,2024-12-30,2024-12-31.plate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30.strain: FG, LE.nitrogen-level: N-1, N-10, N-100.replication: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.experiment: MV.003.imaging-modality: overhead, transmission (raw). For example, the image2024-12-20__1_FG_N-10_3_MV.003_overheadwas taken on 2024-12-20. The plate number is 1, the fungal strain is FG, the nitrogen treatment is N-10, and the replication number is 3 for experiment MV.003, acquired using the overhead imaging modality. The “predicted_masks” folder contains masks generated by a trained U-Net model for the transmission imaging modality.The “gt_masks” folder contains 326 human hand-traced masks that serve as ground truth.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Chronological Switch from Translesion Synthesis to Homology-Dependent Gap Repair In Vivo

Cells are constantly exposed to endogenous and exogenous chemical and physical agents that damage their genome by forming DNA lesions. These lesions interfere with the normal functions of DNA such as transcription and replication, and need to be either repaired or tolerated. DNA lesions are accurately removed via various repair pathways. In contrast, tolerance mechanisms do not remove lesions but only allow replication to proceed despite the presence of unrepaired lesions. Cells possess two major tolerance strategies, namely translesion synthesis (TLS), which is an error-prone strategy and an accurate strategy based on homologous recombination (homology-dependent gap repair [HDGR]). Thus, the mutation frequency reflects the relative extent to which the two tolerance pathways operate in vivo. In the present paper, we review the present understanding of the mechanisms of TLS and HDGR and propose a novel and comprehensive view of the way both strategies interact and are regulated in vivo.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

RNA-guided assembly of Rev-RRE nuclear export complexes

HIV replication requires nuclear export of unspliced and singly spliced viral transcripts. Although a unique RNA structure has been proposed for the Rev-response element (RRE) responsible for viral mRNA export, how it recruits multiple HIV Rev proteins to form an export complex has been unclear. We show here that initial binding of Rev to the RRE triggers RNA tertiary structural changes, enabling further Rev binding and the rapid formation of a viral export complex. Analysis of the Rev-RRE assembly pathway using SHAPE-Seq and small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) reveals two major steps of Rev-RRE complex formation, beginning with rapid Rev binding to a pre-organized region presenting multiple Rev binding sites. This step induces long-range remodeling of the RNA to expose a cryptic Rev binding site, enabling rapid assembly of additional Rev proteins into the RNA export complex. This kinetic pathway may help maintain the balance between viral replication and maturation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Structure of the active form of human origin recognition complex and its ATPase motor module

Binding of the Origin Recognition Complex (ORC) to origins of replication marks the first step in the initiation of replication of the genome in all eukaryotic cells. Here, we report the structure of the active form of human ORC determined by X-ray crystallography and cryo-electron microscopy. The complex is composed of an ORC1/4/5 motor module lobe in an organization reminiscent of the DNA polymerase clamp loader complexes. A second lobe contains the ORC2/3 subunits. The complex is organized as a double-layered shallow corkscrew, with the AAA+ and AAA+-like domains forming one layer, and the winged-helix domains (WHDs) forming a top layer. CDC6 fits easily between ORC1 and ORC2, completing the ring and the DNA-binding channel, forming an additional ATP hydrolysis site. Analysis of the ATPase activity of the complex provides a basis for understanding ORC activity as well as molecular defects observed in Meier-Gorlin Syndrome mutations.

Tocilj, Ante↗

DOE OSTI2020

Universally high transcript error rates in bacteria

Errors can occur at any level during the replication and transcription of genetic information. Genetic mutations derived mainly from replication errors have been extensively studied. However, fundamental details of transcript errors, such as their rate, molecular spectrum, and functional effects, remain largely unknown. To globally identify transcript errors, we applied an adapted rolling-circle sequencing approach to Escherichia coli, Bacillus subtilis, Agrobacterium tumefaciens, and Mesoplasma florum, revealing transcript-error rates 3 to 4 orders of magnitude higher than the corresponding genetic mutation rates. The majority of detected errors would result in amino-acid changes, if translated. With errors identified from 9929 loci, the molecular spectrum and distribution of errors were uncovered in great detail. A G→A substitution bias was observed in M. florum, which apparently has an error-prone RNA polymerase. Surprisingly, an increased frequency of nonsense errors towards the 3' end of mRNAs was observed, suggesting a Nonsense-Mediated Decay-like quality-control mechanism in prokaryotes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Increased signal-to-noise ratios within experimental field trials by regressing spatially distributed soil properties as principal components

Environmental variability poses a major challenge to any field study. Researchers attempt to mitigate this challenge through replication. Thus, the ability to detect experimental signals is determined by the degree of replication and the amount of environmental variation, noise, within the experimental system. A major source of noise in field studies comes from the natural heterogeneity of soil properties which create microtreatments throughout the field. In addition, the variation within different soil properties is often nonrandomly distributed across a field. We explore this challenge through a sorghum field trial dataset with accompanying plant, microbiome, and soil property data. Diverse sorghum genotypes and two watering regimes were applied in a split-plot design. We describe a process of identifying, estimating, and controlling for the effects of spatially distributed soil properties on plant traits and microbial communities using minimal degrees of freedom. Importantly, this process provides a method with which sources of environmental variation in field data can be identified and adjusted, improving our ability to resolve effects of interest and to quantify subtle phenotypes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergence of catalytic function in prebiotic information-coding polymers

Life as we know it relies on the interplay between catalytic activity and information processing carried out by biological polymers. Here we present a plausible pathway by which a pool of prebiotic information-coding oligomers could acquire an early catalytic function, namely sequence-specific cleavage activity. Starting with a system capable of non-enzymatic templated replication, we demonstrate that even non-catalyzed spontaneous cleavage would promote proliferation by generating short fragments that act as primers. Furthermore, we show that catalytic cleavage function can naturally emerge and proliferate in this system. Specifically, a cooperative catalytic network with four subpopulations of oligomers is selected by the evolution in competition with chains lacking catalytic activity. The cooperative system emerges through the functional differentiation of oligomers into catalysts and their substrates. The model is inspired by the structure of the hammerhead RNA enzyme as well as other DNA- and RNA-based enzymes with cleavage activity that readily emerge through natural or artificial selection. We identify the conditions necessary for the emergence of the cooperative catalytic network. In particular, we show that it requires the catalytic rate enhancement over the spontaneous cleavage rate to be at least 10 2 –10 3 , a factor consistent with the existing experiments. The evolutionary pressure leads to a further increase in catalytic efficiency. The presented mechanism provides an escape route from a relatively simple pairwise replication of oligomers toward a more complex behavior involving catalytic function. This provides a bridge between the information-first origin of life scenarios and the paradigm of autocatalytic sets and hypercycles, albeit based on cleavage rather than synthesis of reactants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergence of catalytic function in prebiotic information-coding polymers

Life as we know it relies on the interplay between catalytic activity and information processing carried out by biological polymers. Here we present a plausible pathway by which a pool of prebiotic information-coding oligomers could acquire an early catalytic function, namely sequence-specific cleavage activity. Starting with a system capable of non-enzymatic templated replication, we demonstrate that even non-catalyzed spontaneous cleavage would promote proliferation by generating short fragments that act as primers. Furthermore, we show that catalytic cleavage function can naturally emerge and proliferate in this system. Specifically, a cooperative catalytic network with four subpopulations of oligomers is selected by the evolution in competition with chains lacking catalytic activity. The cooperative system emerges through the functional differentiation of oligomers into catalysts and their substrates. The model is inspired by the structure of the hammerhead RNA enzyme as well as other DNA- and RNA-based enzymes with cleavage activity that readily emerge through natural or artificial selection. We identify the conditions necessary for the emergence of the cooperative catalytic network. In particular, we show that it requires the catalytic rate enhancement over the spontaneous cleavage rate to be at least 10 2 –10 3 , a factor consistent with the existing experiments. The evolutionary pressure leads to a further increase in catalytic efficiency. The presented mechanism provides an escape route from a relatively simple pairwise replication of oligomers toward a more complex behavior involving catalytic function. This provides a bridge between the information-first origin of life scenarios and the paradigm of autocatalytic sets and hypercycles, albeit based on cleavage rather than synthesis of reactants.

Tkachenko, Alexei V. (ORCID:000000031291243X)↗

DOE OSTI2014

Flexible Coal: An Example Evolution from Baseload to Peaking Plant (Presentation)

Twenty-first century power systems, with higher penetration levels of low-carbon energy, smart grids, and other emerging technologies, will favor resources that have low marginal costs and provide system flexibility (e.g., the ability to cycle on and off to follow changes in variable renewable energy plant output). Questions remain about both the fate of coal plants in this scenario and whether they can cost-effectively continue to operate if they cycle routinely. The experience from the CGS plant demonstrates that coal plants can become flexible resources. This flexibility - namely the ability to cycle on and off and run at lower output (below 40% of capacity) - requires limited hardware modifications but extensive modifications to operational practice. Cycling does damage the plant and impact its life expectancy compared to baseload operations. Nevertheless, strategic modifications, proactive inspections and training programs, among other operational changes to accommodate cycling, can minimize the extent of damage and optimize the cost of maintenance. CGS's cycling, but not necessarily the associated price tag, is replicable. Context - namely, power market opportunities and composition of the generation fleet - will help determine for other coal plants the optimal balance between the level of cycling-related forced outages and the level of capital investment required to minimize those outages. Replicating CGS's experience elsewhere will likely require a higher acceptance of forced outages than regulators and plant operators are accustomed to; however, an increase in strategic maintenance can minimize the impact on outage rates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2014

Flexible Coal: An Example Evolution from Baseload to Peaking Plant (Presentation)

Twenty-first century power systems, with higher penetration levels of low-carbon energy, smart grids, and other emerging technologies, will favor resources that have low marginal costs and provide system flexibility (e.g., the ability to cycle on and off to follow changes in variable renewable energy plant output). Questions remain about both the fate of coal plants in this scenario and whether they can cost-effectively continue to operate if they cycle routinely. The experience from the CGS plant demonstrates that coal plants can become flexible resources. This flexibility - namely the ability to cycle on and off and run at lower output (below 40% of capacity) - requires limited hardware modifications but extensive modifications to operational practice. Cycling does damage the plant and impact its life expectancy compared to baseload operations. Nevertheless, strategic modifications, proactive inspections and training programs, among other operational changes to accommodate cycling, can minimize the extent of damage and optimize the cost of maintenance. CGS's cycling, but not necessarily the associated price tag, is replicable. Context - namely, power market opportunities and composition of the generation fleet - will help determine for other coal plants the optimal balance between the level of cycling-related forced outages and the level of capital investment required to minimize those outages. Replicating CGS's experience elsewhere will likely require a higher acceptance of forced outages than regulators and plant operators are accustomed to; however, an increase in strategic maintenance can minimize the impact on outage rates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2014

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results

This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗