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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical analysis and degradation pathway modeling of photovoltaic minimodules with varied packaging strategies

Degradation pathway models constructed using network structural equation modeling (netSEM) are used to study degradation modes and pathways active in photovoltaic (PV) system variants in exposure conditions of high humidity and temperature. This data-driven modeling technique enables the exploration of simultaneous pairwise and multiple regression relationships between variables in which several degradation modes are active in specific variants and exposure conditions. Durable and degrading variants are identified from the netSEM degradation mechanisms and pathways, along with potential ways to mitigate these pathways. A combination of domain knowledge and netSEM modeling shows that corrosion is the primary cause of the power loss in these glass/backsheet PV minimodules. We show successful implementation of netSEM to elucidate the relationships between variables in PV systems and predict a specific service lifetime. The results from pairwise relationships and multiple regression show consistency. This work presents a greater opportunity to be expanded to other materials systems.

electrical measurements↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pollution in the Press: Employing Text Analytics to Understand Regional Water Quality Narratives

Drinking water has and will continue to be at the foundation of our nation’s well-being and there is a growing interest in United States (US) drinking water quality. Nearly 30% of the United States population obtained their water from community water systems that did not meet federal regulations in 2019. Given the heavy interactions between society and drinking water quality, this study integrates social constructionism, environmental injustice, and sociohydrological systems to evaluate local awareness of drinking water quality issues. By employing text analytics, we explore potential drivers of regional water quality narratives within 25 local news sources across the United States. Specifically, we assess the relationship between printed local newspapers and water quality violations in communities as well as the influence of social, political, and economic factors on the coverage of drinking water quality issues. Results suggest that the volume and/or frequency of local drinking water violations is not directly reflected in local news coverage. Additionally, news coverage varied across sociodemographic features, with a negative relationship between Hispanic populations and news coverage of Lead and Copper Rule, and a positive relationship among non-Hispanic white populations. These findings extend current understanding of variations in local narratives to consider nuances of water quality issues and indicate opportunities for increasing equity in environmental risk communication.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Genomic selection in algae with biphasic lifecycles: A Saccharina latissima (sugar kelp) case study

Introduction Sugar kelp ( Saccharina latissima ) has a biphasic life cycle, allowing selection on both thediploid sporophytes (SPs) and haploid gametophytes (GPs). Methods We trained a genomic selection (GS) model from farm-tested SP phenotypic data and used a mixed-ploidy additive relationship matrix to predict GP breeding values. Topranked GPs were used to make crosses for further farm evaluation. The relationship matrix included 866 individuals: a) founder SPs sampled from the wild; b) progeny GPs from founders; c) Farm-tested SPs crossed from b); and d) progeny GPs from farm-tested SPs. The complete pedigree-based relationship matrix was estimated for all individuals. A subset of founder SPs ( n = 58) and GPs ( n = 276) were genotyped with Diversity Array Technology and whole genome sequencing, respectively. We evaluated GS prediction accuracy via cross validation for SPs tested on farm in 2019 and 2020 using a basic GBLUP model. We also estimated the general combining ability (GCA) and specific combining ability (SCA) variances of parental GPs. A total of 11 yield-related and morphology traits were evaluated. Results The cross validation accuracies for dry weight per meter ( r ranged from 0.16 to 0.35) and wet weight per meter ( r ranged 0.19 to 0.35) were comparable to GS accuracy for yield traits in terrestrial crops. For morphology traits, cross validation accuracy exceeded 0.18 in all scenarios except for blade thickness in the second year. Accuracy in a third validation year (2021) was 0.31 for dry weight per meter over a confirmation set of 87 individuals. Discussion Our findings indicate that progress can be made in sugar kelp breeding by using genomic selection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effects of Herbarium Specimen Characteristics on Short-Read NGS Sequencing Success in Nearly 8000 Specimens: Old, Degraded Samples Have Lower DNA Yields but Consistent Sequencing Success

Phylogenetic datasets are now commonly generated using short-read sequencing technologies unhampered by degraded DNA, such as that often extracted from herbarium specimens. The compatibility of these methods with herbarium specimens has precipitated an increase in broad sampling of herbarium specimens for inclusion in phylogenetic studies. Understanding which sample characteristics are predictive of sequencing success can guide researchers in the selection of tissues and specimens most likely to yield good results. Multiple recent studies have considered the relationship between sample characteristics and DNA yield and sequence capture success. Here we report an analysis of the relationship between sample characteristics and sequencing success for nearly 8,000 herbarium specimens. This study, the largest of its kind, is also the first to include a measure of specimen quality (“greenness”) as a predictor of DNA sequencing success. We found that taxonomic group and source herbarium are strong predictors of both DNA yield and sequencing success and that the most important specimen characteristics for predicting success differ for DNA yield and sequencing: greenness was the strongest predictor of DNA yield, and age was the strongest predictor of proportion-on-target reads recovered. Surprisingly, the relationship between age and proportion-on-target reads is the inverse of expectations; older specimens performed slightly better in our capture-based protocols. We also found that DNA yield itself is not a strong predictor of sequencing success. Most literature on DNA sequencing from herbarium specimens considers specimen selection for optimal DNA extraction success, which we find to be an inappropriate metric for predicting success using next-generation sequencing technologies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large Eddy Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle of Shallow Convection in the Central Amazon

Climate models often face challenges in accurately simulating the daily precipitation cycle over tropical land areas, particularly in the Amazon. One contributing factor may be the incomplete representation of the diurnal evolution of shallow cumulus (ShCu) clouds. This study aimed to enhance the understanding of the diurnal cycles of ShCu clouds—from formation to maturation and dissipation—over the Central Amazon (CAMZ). Using observational data from the Green Ocean Amazon 2014 (GoAmazon) campaign and large eddy simulation (LES) modeling, we analyzed the diurnal cycles of six selected pure ShCu cases and their composite behavior. Our results revealed a well-defined cycle, with cloud formation occurring between 10 and 11 local time (LT), maturity from 13 to 15 LT, and dissipation by 17–18 LT. The vertical extent of the liquid water mixing ratio and the intensity of the updraft mass flux were closely associated with increases in turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), enhanced buoyancy flux within the cloud layer, and reduced large-scale subsidence. We further analyzed the diurnal cycles of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the convective inhibition (CIN), the Bowen ratio (BR), and the vertically integrated TKE in the mixed layer (ITKE-ML), exploring their relationships with the cloud base mass flux (Mb) and cloud depth across the six ShCu cases. ITKE-ML and Mb exhibited similar diurnal trends, peaking at approximately 14–15 LT. However, no consistent relationships were found between CAPE (or BR) and Mb. Similarly, comparisons of the cloud depth with CAPE, BR, ITKE-ML, CIN, and Mb revealed no clear relationships. Smaller ShCu clouds were sometimes linked to higher CAPE and lower CIN. It is important to emphasize that these findings are preliminary and based on a limited sample of ShCu cases. Further research involving an expanded dataset and more detailed analyses of the TKE budget and synoptic conditions is necessary. Such efforts would yield a more comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing ShCu clouds’ vertical development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Do Dominant Ants Affect Secondary Productivity, Behavior and Diversity in a Guild of Woodland Ants?

The degree to which competition by dominant species shapes ecological communities remains a largely unresolved debate. In ants, unimodal dominance–richness relationships are common and suggest that dominant species, when very abundant, competitively exclude non-dominant species. However, few studies have investigated the underlying mechanisms by which dominant ants might affect coexistence and the maintenance of species richness. In this study, we first examined the relationship between the richness of non-dominant ant species and the abundance of a dominant ant species, Formica subsericea, among forest ant assemblages in the eastern US. This relationship was hump-shaped or not significant depending on the inclusion or exclusion of an influential observation. Moreover, we found only limited evidence that F. subsericea negatively affects the productivity or behavior of non-dominant ant species. For example, at the colony-level, the size and productivity of colonies of non-dominant ant species were not different when they were in close proximity to dominant ant nests than when they were away and, in fact, was associated with increased productivity in one species. Additionally, the number of foraging workers of only one non-dominant ant species was lower at food sources near than far from dominant F. subsericea nests, while the number of foragers of other species was not negatively affected. However, foraging activity of the non-dominant ant species was greater at night when F. subsericea was inactive, suggesting a potential mechanism by which some non-dominant species avoid interactions with competitively superior species. Gaining a mechanistic understanding of how patterns of community structure arise requires linking processes from colonies to communities. Our study suggests the negative effects of dominant ant species on non-dominant species may be offset by mechanisms promoting coexistence.

Formicidae↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rotationally Driven Ultraviolet Emission of Red Giant Stars

Main-sequence stars exhibit a clear rotation-activity relationship, in which rapidly rotating stars drive strong chromospheric/coronal ultraviolet and X-ray emission. While the vast majority of red giant stars are inactive, a few percent exhibit strong ultraviolet emission. Here we use a sample of 133 red giant stars observed by Sloan Digital Sky Survey APOGEE and Galaxy Evolution Explorer to demonstrate an empirical relationship between near-UV (NUV) excess and rotational velocity (v sin i). Beyond this simple relationship, we find that NUV excess also correlates with rotation period and with Rossby number in a manner that shares broadly similar trends to those found in M dwarfs, including activity saturation among rapid rotators. Our data also suggest that the most extremely rapidly rotating giants may exhibit so-called supersaturation, which could be caused by centrifugal stripping of these stars rotating at a high fraction of breakup speed. As an example application of our empirical rotation-activity relation, we demonstrate that the NUV emission observed from a recently reported system comprising a red giant with a black hole companion is fully consistent with arising from the rapidly rotating red giant in that system. Most fundamentally, our findings suggest a common origin of chromospheric activity in rotation and convection for cool stars from main sequence to red giant stages of evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Cross-matching of High Proper-motion Stars in Gaia DR2 and Photometric Metallicities for ∼1.7 million K and M Dwarfs

We present a Bayesian method to cross-match 5,827,988 high proper-motion Gaia sources (μ > 40 mas yr{sup −1}) to various photometric surveys: Two Micron All Sky Survey, AllWISE data release from the Wide-field Infrared Explorer (WISE) mission, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Radial Velocity Experiment, Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS). To efficiently associate these objects across catalogs, we develop a technique that compares the multidimensional distribution of all sources in the vicinity of each Gaia star to a reference distribution of random field stars obtained by extracting all sources in a region on the sky displaced 2′. This offset preserves the local field stellar density and magnitude distribution, allowing us to characterize the frequency of chance alignments. The resulting catalog with Bayesian probabilities >95% has a marginally higher match rate than current internal Gaia data release 2 (DR2) matches for most catalogs. However, a significant improvement is found with Pan-STARRS, where ∼99.8% of the sample within the Pan-STARRS footprint is recovered, as compared to a low ∼20.8% in Gaia DR2. Using these results, we train a Gaussian process regressor to calibrate two photometric metallicity relationships. For dwarfs of 3500 < T{sub eff} < 5280 K, we use metallicity values of 4378 stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Hejazi et al. to calibrate the relationship, producing results with a 1σ precision of 0.12 dex and few systematic errors. We then indirectly infer the metallicity of 4018 stars with 2850 < T{sub eff} < 3500 K, which are wide companions of primaries whose metallicities are estimated with our first regressor, to produce a relationship with a 1σ precision of 0.21 dex and significant systematic errors. Additional work is needed to better remove unresolved binaries from this second sample to reduce these systematic errors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subgalactic Scaling Relations with T e -based Metallicities of Low-metallicity Regions in Galaxies: Metal-poor Gas Inflow May Have Important Effects?

The scaling relationship is a fundamental probe of the evolution of galaxies. Using the integral field spectroscopic data from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory survey, we select 1698 spaxels with a significant detection of the auroral emission line [O ιιι]λ4363 from 52 galaxies to investigate the scaling relationships at the low-metallicity end. We find that our sample’s star formation rate is higher and its metallicity is lower in the scaling relationship than the star-forming sequence after removing the contribution of the Fundamental Metallicity Relation. We also find that the stellar ages of our sample are younger (<1 Gyr) and the stellar metallicities are also lower. Morphological parameters from the Deep Learning catalog indicate that our galaxies are more likely to be mergers. These results suggest that their low-metallicity regions may be related to interaction; the inflow of metal-poor gas may dilute the interstellar medium and form new metal-poor stars in these galaxies during interactions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Engine Operating Conditions, Fuel Property Effects, and Associated Fuel–Wall Interaction Dependencies of Stochastic Preignition

This work for the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) explores dependencies on the opportunity for fuel to impinge on internal engine surfaces (i.e., fuel–wall impingement) as a function of fuel properties and engine operating conditions and correlates these data with measurements of stochastic preignition (SPI) propensity. SPI rates are directly coupled with laser–induced florescence measurements of dye-doped fuel dilution measurements of the engine lubricant, which provides a surrogate for fuel–wall impingement. Literature suggests that SPI may have several dependencies, one being fuel–wall impingement. However, it remains unknown if fuel-wall impingement is a fundamental predictor and source of SPI or is simply a causational factor of SPI. In this study, these relationships on SPI and fuel-wall impingement are explored using 4 fuels at 8 operating conditions per fuel, for 32 total test points. The fuels were directly injected at two different injection timings: an earlier injection timing that initially targets the piston crown and a later injection timing that targets the cylinder liner. At each injection timing, the engine was operated at both 90°C and 70°C coolant and lubricant temperatures, and 185 and 200 kPa absolute intake manifold pressure. This work serves as an exploratory effort to down select conditions and provide initial fuel properties of interest for a secondary study to explore fuel property specific effects on fuel-wall interaction and SPI propensity. Significant findings from this initial operating condition and fuel property exploratory work are: 1. reduced engine operating coolant and lubricant temperatures, along with 2. retarded injection timings were required to increase SPI propensity. Moreover, at these conditions some fuel specific effects were also observed; specifically, increased ethanol content increased measured dye–wall (i.e., fuel–wall) interaction. However, despite increased dye–wall interaction, the increased volatility of the ethanol containing fuels also reduced the estimated fuel retention in the top-ring zone and associated measured SPI propensity. Thus, the findings of this unique approach to explore relationships between fuel-wall impingement and SPI highlight that SPI propensity is more directly proportional to retained fuel, and not simply fuel–wall impingement. Furthermore, fuel retention was found to be directly influenced by complex fuel property and engine operating condition relationships. Either retarded injection timings and/or increased fuel volatility increased fuel wall-impingement, while less volatile fuels and/or reduced coolant temperatures increased fuel retention. Therefore, for a given operating condition, the data highlights that greater volatile fuels exhibit increased fuel wall impingement without increased fuel retention or SPI propensity, while less volatile fuels could exhibit reduced fuel-wall impingement but increased fuel retention and SPI propensity rates.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Confined and deconfined chaos in classical spin systems

Weakly perturbed integrable many-body systems are typically chaotic, and thermal at late times. However, there are distinct relationships between the timescales for thermalization and chaos. The typical relationship is confined chaos: when trajectories are still confined to regions in phase space with constant conserved quantities (actions), the conjugate angle variables are already unstable. Chaotic instabilities thus far precede thermalization. In a different relationship, which we term deconfined chaos, chaotic instabilities and thermalization occur on the same timescale. We investigate these two qualitatively distinct scenarios through numerical and analytical studies of two perturbed integrable classical spin models: the Ishimori spin chain (confined chaos), and the central spin model with XX interactions (deconfined chaos). We analytically establish (super)-integrability in the latter model in a microcanonical shell. Deconfined chaos emerges through the separation of phase space into large quasi-integrable regions and a thin chaotic manifold. The latter leads to chaos and thermalization on the fastest possible timescale, which is proportional to the inverse perturbation strength. This behavior is reminiscent of the quantum SYK models and strange metals.

Chaotic Dynamics (nlin.CD)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SMv1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERF aer ) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERF aer simulated by the E3SMv1 atmosphere model using both century-long free-running atmosphere-land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERF aer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. Consequently, although the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase from 1870 to 2014, the ERF aer magnitude does not increase after around year 1970. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between preindustrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period from 1870 to 2014. The ERF aer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol-cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features a stronger sensitivity of the cloud droplet effective radius to changes in the cloud droplet number concentration. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. The ERF aer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-atmosphere forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERF aer , it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM using coupled eastern North Atlantic surface and satellite retrievals

The impact of aerosol number concentration on cloud albedo is a persistent source of spread in global climate predictions due to multi-scale, interactive atmospheric processes that remain difficult to quantify. We use 5 years of geostationary satellite and surface retrievals at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site in the Azores to evaluate the representation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility for overcast cloud scenes in the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) and provide possible reasons for model–observation discrepancies. The overall distribution of surface 0.2 % CCN concentration values is reasonably simulated, but simulated liquid water path (LWP) is lower than observed and layer mean droplet concentration (N d ) comparisons are highly variable depending on the N d retrieval technique. E3SMv1's cloud albedo is greater than observed for given LWP and N d values due to a lower cloud effective radius than observed. However, the simulated albedo response to N d is suppressed due to a correlation between the solar zenith angle (SZA) and N d created by the seasonal cycle that is not observed. Controlling for this effect by examining the cloud optical depth (COD) shows that E3SMv1's COD response to CCN concentration is greater than observed. For surface-based retrievals, this is only true after controlling for cloud adiabaticity because E3SMv1's adiabaticities are much lower than observed. Assuming a constant adiabaticity in surface retrievals as done in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) retrievals narrows the retrieved ln N d distribution, which increases the cloud albedo sensitivity to ln N d to match the TOA sensitivity. The greater sensitivity of COD to CCN is caused by a greater Twomey effect in which the sensitivity of N d to CCN is greater than observed for TOA-retrieved N d , and once model–observation cloud adiabaticity differences are removed, this is also true for surface-retrieved N d . The LWP response to N d in E3SMv1 is overall negative as observed. Despite reproducing the observed LWP–N d relationship, observed clouds become much more adiabatic as N d increases, while E3SMv1 clouds do not, associated with more heavily precipitating clouds that are partially but not completely caused by deeper clouds and weaker inversions in E3SMv1. These cloud property differences indicate that the negative LWP–N d relationship is likely not caused by the same mechanisms in E3SMv1 and observations. The negative simulated LWP response also fails to mute the excessively strong Twomey effect, highlighting potentially important confounding factor effects that likely render the LWP–N d relationship non-causal. N d retrieval scales and assumptions, particularly related to cloud adiabaticity, contribute to substantial spreads in the model–observation comparisons, though enough consistency exists to suggest that aerosol activation, drizzle, and entrainment processes are critical areas to focus E3SMv1 development for improving the fidelity of aerosol–cloud interactions in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical dry forest response to nutrient fertilization: a model validation and sensitivity analysis

Abstract. Soil nutrients, especially nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), regulate plant growth and hence influence carbon fluxes between the land surface and atmosphere. However, how forests adjust biomass partitioning to leaves, wood, and fine roots in response to N and/or P fertilization remains puzzling. Recent work in tropical forests suggests that trees increase fine root production under P fertilization, but it is unclear whether mechanistic models can reproduce this dynamic. In order to better understand mechanisms governing nutrient effects on plant allocation and improve models, we used the nutrient-enabled ED2 model to simulate a fertilization experiment being conducted in a secondary tropical dry forest in Costa Rica. We evaluated how different allocation parameterizations affected model performance. These parameterizations prescribed a linear relationship between relative allocation to fine roots and soil P concentrations. The slope of the linear relationship was allowed to be positive, negative, or zero. Some parameterizations realistically simulated leaf, wood, and fine root production, and these parameterizations all assumed a positive relationship between relative allocation to fine roots and soil P concentration. Model simulations of a 30-year timeframe indicated strong sensitivity to parameterization and fertilization treatment. Without P fertilization, the simulated aboveground biomass (AGB) accumulation was insensitive to the parameterization. With P fertilization, the model was highly sensitive to the parameterization and the greatest AGB accumulation occurred when relative allocation to fine roots was independent of soil P. Our study demonstrates the need for simultaneous measurements of leaf, wood, and fine root production in nutrient fertilization experiments and for longer-term experiments. Models that do not accurately represent allocation to fine roots may be highly biased in their simulations of AGB, especially on multi-decadal timescales.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations

Abstract. Idealized experiments with coupled climate-carbon Earth system models (ESMs) provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to external forcing and for quantifying climate-carbon feedbacks. Here, we analyze globally-averaged results from idealized esm-flat10 experiments and show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean during a period of constant fossil fuel emissions of 10 Pg C yr−1. We hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. Further, as a simplification, we quantify the relationship between cumulative ocean carbon uptake and changes in ocean heat content using a linear approximation. In this way, changes in oceanic heat content and atmospheric CO2 concentration become interdependent variables, reducing the coupled temperature-CO2 system to just one differential equation. The equation can be solved analytically or numerically for the atmospheric CO2 concentration as a function of fossil fuel emissions. This approach leads to a simplified description of global carbon and climate dynamics, which could be used for applications beyond existing analytical frameworks.

Brovkin, Victor↗
DOE OSTI2023

A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)

Tropical forest dynamics play a crucial role in the global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, realistically simulating the dynamics of competition and coexistence between different plant functional types (PFTs) in tropical forests remains a significant challenge. This study aims to improve the modeling of PFT coexistence in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a vegetation demography model implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM), ELM-FATES. Specifically, we explore (1) whether plant trait relationships established from field measurements can constrain ELM-FATES simulations and (2) whether machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models can emulate the complex ELM-FATES model and optimize parameter selections to improve PFT coexistence modeling. We conducted three ensembles of ELM-FATES experiments at a tropical forest site near Manaus, Brazil. By comparing the ensemble experiments without (Exp-CTR) and with (Exp-OBS) consideration of observed trait relationships, we found that accounting for these relationships slightly improves the simulations of water, energy, and carbon variables when compared to observations but degrades the simulation of PFT coexistence. Using ML-based surrogate models trained on Exp-CTR, we optimized the trait parameters in ELM-FATES and conducted another ensemble of experiments (Exp-ML) with these optimized parameters. The proportion of PFT coexistence experiments significantly increased from 21 % in Exp-CTR to 73 % in Exp-ML. After filtering the experiments that allow for PFT coexistence to agree with observations (within 15 % tolerance), 33 % of the Exp-ML experiments were retained, which is a significant improvement compared to the 1.4 % in Exp-CTR. Exp-ML also accurately reproduces the annual means and seasonal variations in water, energy, and carbon fluxes and the field inventory of aboveground biomass. This study represents a reproducible method that utilizes machine learning to identify parameter values that improve model fidelity against observations and PFT coexistence in vegetation demography models for diverse ecosystems. Our study also suggests the need for new mechanisms to enhance the robust simulation of coexisting plants in ELM-FATES and has significant implications for modeling the response and feedbacks of ecosystem dynamics to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Properties for a Mechanistic, Predictive Understanding of Aqueous Impact on Aging of Medium and Low Voltage AC and DC Cabling in Nuclear Power Plants

To address the gap in knowledge in understanding degradation in relevant service conditions, this project aimed to develop a mechanistic, predictive model of medium and low voltage cable failure based on the primary environmental degradation parameters of aqueous immersion time, temperature, and the oxidation extent. To do so, we took a two-fold approach toward evaluating degradation as related to the aqueous condition. First, we evaluated the chemical, mechanical, and electrical properties of polymers that comprise the cabling insulation under varied aqueous conditions at different temperatures. Secondly, we evaluated the performance of insulation materials under similar accelerated aging conditions in addition to the dielectric breakdown of the cabling under submersion conditions. Thermal oxidation and immersion of LDPE thin films were done using a Parr vessel and the extent of oxidation was monitored using the carbonyl index from ATR-FTIR spectrum, a ratio quantifying the carbonyl functionality produced on the LDPE film surface. Increasing the temperature, oxidation time, and oxygen pressure increased the water-vapor permeability and the carbonyl content. Thermogravimetric analysis of the films confirmed that there is indeed an initial weight loss of the smaller molecular weight molecules and volatiles. At higher temperatures, there is a secondary mass loss. Up to 70°C, the mass loss curves were similar until 80°C, when the aged films decreased at a much greater rate with respect to increasing temperature. This was seen in the 10, 50, 90% weight loss temperatures. The mechanical properties of sheet PP and HDPE as well as injection molded LDPE, HDPE, HDPP dog bones were plotted with respect to the time spent in the Parr vessel during thermal oxidation. For the sheet PP and HDPE, the UTS and the modulus of elasticity decreased while the elongation increased. The injection-molded LDPE, HDPE, and HDPP dog bones experienced a similar trend where the changes in the properties were within experimental uncertainty. This analysis of LDPE in dry and immersive oxygen-rich environments is an important baseline for future experiments looking at other degradation mechanisms. A predictive aging model for low-density polyethylene insulative cable housings was developed. This model revealed a combination of physical and chemical processes which lead to an increase in permeability and a decrease in strength of the insulator. In creating this predictive model, a gap of knowledge in the literature was revealed in two areas: understanding how the crystallinity of a polymer changes with time and visualizing the predicted pores formed through the insulator which leads to failure. Developing and using an adapted ATR-FTIR method, crystallinity was monitored and compared to bulk crystallinity found via DSC. Inhomogeneity in crystallinity changes were observed but the FTIR method but was found to be less reliable. Pore visualization was found utilizing electrical impedance spectroscopy saturated aged polyethylene films with synthesized citrate-capped gold nanoparticles, and chloroauric acid precursor. results indicate a decreasing impedance of the polyethylene films caused by the transport of ions through the film. SEM imaging was then performed for elemental analysis of the films and counter electrodes for the presence of ions. Chloride and gold ions were detected; however, no nanoparticles were found. This gives an estimated pore size of at least 0.3 nm through the aged film. Cyclic submergence of polyethylene and polypropylene in aqueous solutions of copper sulfate and Harrison’s solution were examined. It was discovered that aging in these mixed conditions and at 90°C did cause a small, yet significant increase to tensile strength for both unaged polyethylene and polypropylene. The PE and PP in cycled and submerged conditions did not have tensile strengths significantly different from dry-aged after 16 weeks. For both solutions, it was determined that capacitance increases with both water tree depth and cable temperature and is relatively independent of changing water tree AR. As for resistance, there is no apparent change between depth percentages of 10 and 80 for both solutions. This is because the water tree has not yet entered the conductor and thus there is no shorting current flowing through the tree yet. Between 80 and 100% water tree depth, it is observed that for both solutions there is a rapid decrease in resistance because the tree is now impacting the conductor shield and allowing shorting current to flow through it. The relationship between resistance and temperature was found to be inversed. As temperature increases, resistance decreases for both water tree solutions with distilled water having the most apparent difference across the range of temperatures simulated. With regards to water tree AR, resistance was found to be relatively independent at depth percentages of 10, 50, and 70, but there was some relationship at 100% depth for both solutions. At this depth, as water tree AR increased, resistance was found to also increase. Through the examination of voltage and electric field distribution plots, it was confirmed for EPR cables that increasing water tree depth leads to increasing distortion. The increase in shorting current at 100% depth for aqueous copper sulfate compared to distilled water was also visualized. Lastly, the relationship between shorting current and temperature for narrow water trees was visualized and validated using the distribution plots. This study has led to a better understanding of the effect of cable temperature, water tree solution, and geometry of the tree region on cable degradation. Furthermore, this study has documented simulation results of water tree degradation in EPR MV cables, which had been previously lacking in information. Future work in this area will add frequency into the mix and examine what effect it has on the rate of cable degradation as a result of water treeing. To compliment the work being carried by UMD on different polymer chemistries, harvested medium voltage (MV) cables were selected for accelerated aging study at ORNL. These medium voltage cables are representative of the vintages and materials that are currently in use at existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). These cables were immersed in water at 90°C and energized for a period of two years at elevated voltage. Partial discharge was measured during this period of time to track potential degradation. Unfortunately, due to the absence of failure, the extent of integration between the UMD techniques and the harvested MV insulation was limited. However, based on the findings and from the UMD research in the previous sections on polyethylene and polypropylene, follow-on characterization for harvested MV cable insulation should focus on sample preparation to take advantage of the UMD techniques to better understand mechanistic degradation in MV cable insulations. This would include: 1.) Utilization of solutions and impedance measurement insulation to track permeability in harvested and accelerated aging insulation samples, 2.) Adaptation of gold nanoparticle synthesis for electrical impedance spectroscopy with supporting SEM characterization to study pore formation in harvested and accelerated aged insulation samples, & 3.) ATR-FTIR crystallinity with multiple temperature dependent harvested MV cable insulation under different air and submerged accelerated aging. In addition, low voltage dielectric spectroscopy and high voltage dissipation factor, tan δ, could be implemented as a condition monitoring tool for harvested MV cable insulation in submerged environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗