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At least 973 records · Page 54

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Learning with Delayed Rewards—A Case Study on Inverse Defect Design in 2D Materials

Defect dynamics in materials are of central importance to a broad range of technologies from catalysis to energy storage systems to microelectronics. Material functionality depends strongly on the nature and organization of defects-their arrangements often involve intermediate or transient states that present a high barrier for transformation. The lack of knowledge of these intermediate states and the presence of this energy barrier presents a serious challenge for inverse defect design, especially for gradient-based approaches. Here, we present a reinforcement learning (RL) [Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)] based on delayed rewards that allow for efficient search of the defect configurational space and allows us to identify optimal defect arrangements in low-dimensional materials. Using a representative case of two-dimensional MoS 2 , we demonstrate that the use of delayed rewards allows us to efficiently sample the defect configurational space and overcome the energy barrier for a wide range of defect concentrations (from 1.5 to 8% S vacancies)-the system evolves from an initial randomly distributed S vacancies to one with extended S line defects consistent with previous experimental studies. Detailed analysis in the feature space allows us to identify the optimal pathways for this defect transformation and arrangement. Comparison with other global optimization schemes like genetic algorithms suggests that the MCTS with delayed rewards takes fewer evaluations and arrives at a better quality of the solution. The implications of the various sampled defect configurations on the 2H to 1T phase transitions in MoS 2 are discussed. In this study, we introduce a RL strategy employing delayed rewards that can accelerate the inverse design of defects in materials for achieving targeted functionality.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Computational discovery of two-dimensional rare-earth iodides: promising ferrovalley materials for valleytronics

Two-dimensional Ferrovalley materials with intrinsic valley polarization are rare but highly promising for valley-based nonvolatile random access memory and valley filter devices. These ferromagnetic materials exhibit valleys at or near the Fermi level with intrinsic magnetism. The strong coupling between magnetism and spin–orbit coupling induces intrinsic valley polarization. Using Kinetically Limited Minimization, an unconstrained crystal structure prediction algorithm, and prototype sampling based on first-principles calculations, we have discovered new Ferrovalley materials, rare-earth iodides RI 2 , where R is a rare-earth element belonging to Sc, Y, or La-Lu, and I is Iodine. The rare-earth iodides are layered and demonstrate either 2H, 1T, or 1T d phase as the ground state in bulk, analogous to transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs). The calculated exfoliation energy of monolayers (MLs) is comparable to that of graphene and TMDCs, suggesting possible experimental synthesis. The MLs in the 2H phase exhibit ferromagnetism due to unpaired electrons in d and f orbitals. Throughout the rare-earth series, d bands have valley polarization at K and $\overline{K}$ points in the Brillouin zone in the vicinity of the Fermi level. Large intrinsic valley polarization in the range of 15–143 meV without external stimuli is observed in these Ferrovalley materials, which can be enhanced further by applying an in-plane bi-axial strain. These valleys can selectively be probed and manipulated for information storage and processing, potentially offering superior performance beyond conventional electronics and spintronics. Here we further show that the 2H ferromagnetic phase of RI 2 MLs possesses non-zero Berry curvature and exhibits anomalous valley Hall effect with considerable anomalous Hall conductivity. Our work will incite exploratory synthesis of the predicted Ferrovalley materials and their application in valleytronics and beyond.

2D materials↗

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

Assessment of computational prediction of tail buffeting

Assessments of the viability of computational methods and the computer resource requirements for the prediction of tail buffeting are made. Issues involved in the use of Euler and Navier-Stokes equations in modeling vortex-dominated and buffet flows are discussed and the requirement for sufficient grid density to allow accurate, converged calculations is stressed. Areas in need of basic fluid dynamics research are highlighted: vorticity convection, vortex breakdown, dynamic turbulence modeling for free shear layers, unsteady flow separation for moderately swept, rounded leading-edge wings, vortex flows about wings at high subsonic speeds. An estimate of the computer run time for a buffeting response calculation for a full span F-15 aircraft indicates that an improvement in computer and/or algorithm efficiency of three orders of magnitude is needed to enable routine use of such methods. Attention is also drawn to significant uncertainties in the estimates, in particular with regard to nonlinearities contained within the modeling and the question of the repeatability or randomness of buffeting response.

Edwards, John W.↗

An Evaluation of the Measurement Requirements for an In-Situ Wake Vortex Detection System

Results of a numerical simulation are presented to determine the feasibility of estimating the location and strength of a wake vortex from imperfect in-situ measurements. These estimates could be used to provide information to a pilot on how to avoid a hazardous wake vortex encounter. An iterative algorithm based on the method of secants was used to solve the four simultaneous equations describing the two-dimensional flow field around a pair of parallel counter-rotating vortices of equal and constant strength. The flow field information used by the algorithm could be derived from measurements from flow angle sensors mounted on the wing-tip of the detecting aircraft and an inertial navigation system. The study determined the propagated errors in the estimated location and strength of the vortex which resulted from random errors added to theoretically perfect measurements. The results are summarized in a series of charts and a table which make it possible to estimate these propagated errors for many practical situations. The situations include several generator-detector airplane combinations, different distances between the vortex and the detector airplane, as well as different levels of total measurement error.

Fuhrmann, Henri D.↗

An Automatic Phase-Change Detection Technique for Colloidal Hard Sphere Suspensions

Colloidal suspensions of monodisperse spheres are used as physical models of thermodynamic phase transitions and as precursors to photonic band gap materials. However, current image analysis techniques are not able to distinguish between densely packed phases within conventional microscope images, which are mainly characterized by degrees of randomness or order with similar grayscale value properties. Current techniques for identifying the phase boundaries involve manually identifying the phase transitions, which is very tedious and time consuming. We have developed an intelligent machine vision technique that automatically identifies colloidal phase boundaries. The algorithm utilizes intelligent image processing techniques that accurately identify and track phase changes vertically or horizontally for a sequence of colloidal hard sphere suspension images. This technique is readily adaptable to any imaging application where regions of interest are distinguished from the background by differing patterns of motion over time.

McDowell, Mark↗

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (<10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Marusiak, Angela G.↗

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (< 10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Angela G Marusiak↗

Leverage Score Sampling for Parametric PDEs (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the accomplishments of work performed under DOE Office of Science Award DE-SC0022266, which is titled “Leverage Score Sampling for Parametric PDEs”. The goal of the project was to extend methods from Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra (RandNLA) to tackle central computational challenges in model order reduction and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). In particular, we sought to use importance sampling methods originally developed for RandNLA to develop sample efficient active learning algorithms for approximating high-dimensional scalar functions, e.g. by polynomials, Gaussian process models, and simple neural networks. Such methods can be immediately applied to developing surrogate models or to approximating quantity of interest (QoI) surfaces. In the context of PDEs, each sample used for learning equates to the solution of the differential equation for a particular set of parameters, so sample efficiency translates to improved computational efficiency for a variety of downstream tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A novel machine learning-based optimization algorithm (ActivO) for accelerating simulation-driven engine design

A novel design optimization approach (ActivO) that employs an ensemble of machine learning algorithms is presented. The proposed approach is a surrogate-based scheme, where the predictions of a weak leaner and a strong learner are utilized within an active learning loop. The weak learner is used to identify promising regions within the design space to explore, while the strong learner is used to determine the exact location of the optimum within promising regions. For each design iteration, exploration is done by randomly selecting evaluation points within regions where the weak learner-predicted fitness is high. The global optimum obtained by using the strong learner as a surrogate is also evaluated to enable rapid convergence once the most promising region has been identified. First, the performance of ActivO was compared against five other optimizers on a cosine mixture function with 25 local optima and one global optimum. In the second problem, the objective was to minimize indicated specific fuel consumption of a compression-ignition internal combustion (IC) engine while adhering to desired constraints associated with in-cylinder pressure and emissions. In this work, the efficacy of the proposed approach is compared to that of a genetic algorithm, which is widely used within the internal combustion engine community for engine optimization, showing that ActivO reduces the number of function evaluations needed to reach the global optimum, and thereby time-to-design by 80%. Furthermore, the optimization of engine design parameters leads to savings of around 1.9% in energy consumption, while maintaining operability and acceptable pollutant emissions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fast Computational Algorithms for Partial Differential Equations and Uncertainty Quantifications

This project concerned the construction, testing and analysis of computational algorithms for solving parameterized and stochastic partial differential equations. The study and understanding of equations of this type is of fundamental importance in numerous engineering and scientific applications. Examples include simulation of plasma dynamics in models of electric propulsion and nuclear fusion, simulation of multiphase flows, such as the flow of water, gas and oil in reservoirs, and structural analysis of the dependence of structures on materials. Parametrization is used in such settings when properties of the models such as viscosity of fluids or electric resistivity of materials are not precisely understood and instead are treated as random variables. The resulting solutions are themselves random, and having such solutions will enable engineers to use probabilistic methods to assess the likelihood of events, for example, whether a pollutant in a liquid will exceed a limit, and to use such analyses to develop ways to ensure positive outcomes. Construction of accurate (high resolution) computational solutions is expensive, requiring significant computer time and computational resources, and there is need to reduce computational cost to make simulation useful and effective. The aim of the project was to construct algorithms to efficiently compute surrogate solutions to parameterized problems to allow for efficient and accurate simulation. The technical approach used focused on two related strategies, based on rank-reduction methods and reduced-order models. These methods construct surrogate solutions of parameter-dependent models by projection or interpolation into low-dimensional approximation spaces. Cost savings are achieved if the low-dimensional spaces can be identified and constructed efficiently and if the resulting low-dimensional algebraic systems can be solved cheaply. Accomplishments include: Theoretical and empirical demonstration of the effectiveness of fast multigrid solution strategies for computing low-rank representations of parameter-dependent solutions to discrete partial differential equations, including the first proof establishing so-called textbook convergence properties for low-rank methods. Development of efficient solution algorithms for solving nonlinear parameter-dependent partial differential equations used in models of fluid dynamics. Developent of efficient algorithms for low-rank representation of solutions of time-dependent simulations of fluid dynamics using multi-dimensional tensor representations of solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multistage mixed precision iterative refinement

Abstract Low precision arithmetic, in particular half precision (16‐bit) floating point arithmetic, is now available in commercial hardware. Using lower precision can offer significant savings in computation and communication costs with proportional savings in energy. Motivated by this, there has been a renewed interest in mixed precision iterative refinement schemes for solving linear systems , and new variants of GMRES‐based iterative refinement have been developed. Each particular variant with a given combination of precisions leads to different condition number‐based constraints for convergence of the backward and forward errors, and each has different performance costs. The constraints for convergence given in the literature are, as an artifact of the analyses, often overly strict in practice, and thus could lead a user to select a more expensive variant when a less expensive one would have sufficed. In this work, we develop a multistage mixed precision iterative refinement solver which aims to combine existing mixed precision approaches to balance performance and accuracy and improve usability. For a user‐specified initial combination of precisions, the algorithm begins with the least expensive approach and convergence is monitored via inexpensive computations with quantities produced during the iteration. If slow convergence or divergence is detected using particular stopping criteria, the algorithm switches to use a more expensive, but more reliable variant. A novel aspect of our approach is that, unlike existing implementations, our algorithm first attempts to use “stronger” GMRES‐based solvers for the solution update before resorting to increasing the precision(s). In some scenarios, this can avoid the need to refactorize the matrix in higher precision. We perform extensive numerical experiments on a variety of random dense problems and problems from real applications which confirm the benefits of the multistage approach.

Oktay, Eda↗

A survey of unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in black-box-type problems

Constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex partial differential equations (PDEs) having inherently high-dimensional O(10 n ), n ≥ 2, stochastic inputs (e.g., forcing terms, boundary conditions, initial conditions) poses tremendous challenges. The “curse of dimensionality” can be addressed with suitable unsupervised learning techniques used as a pre-processing tool to encode inputs onto lower-dimensional subspaces while retaining its structural information and meaningful properties. In this work, we review and investigate thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods and utilize the resulting embeddings to construct a mapping to quantities of interest via polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). Here, we refer to the general proposed approach as manifold PCE (m-PCE), where manifold corresponds to the latent space resulting from any of the studied dimension reduction methods. To investigate the capabilities and limitations of these methods we conduct numerical tests for three physics-based systems (treated as black-boxes) having high-dimensional stochastic inputs of varying complexity modeled as both Gaussian and non-Gaussian random fields to investigate the effect of the intrinsic dimensionality of input data. We demonstrate both the advantages and limitations of the unsupervised learning methods and we conclude that a suitable m-PCE model provides a cost-effective approach compared to alternative algorithms proposed in the literature, including recently proposed expensive deep neural network-based surrogates and can be readily applied for high-dimensional UQ in stochastic PDEs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Randomized probe imaging through deep k-learning

Randomized probe imaging (RPI) is a single-frame diffractive imaging method that uses highly randomized light to reconstruct the spatial features of a scattering object. The reconstruction process, known as phase retrieval, aims to recover a unique solution for the object without measuring the far-field phase information. Typically, reconstruction is done via time-consuming iterative algorithms. In this work, we propose a fast and efficient deep learning based method to reconstruct phase objects from RPI data. The method, which we call deep k-learning, applies the physical propagation operator to generate an approximation of the object as an input to the neural network. This way, the network no longer needs to parametrize the far-field diffraction physics, dramatically improving the results. Deep k-learning is shown to be computationally efficient and robust to Poisson noise. The advantages provided by our method may enable the analysis of far larger datasets in photon starved conditions, with important applications to the study of dynamic phenomena in physical science and biological engineering.

Guo, Zhen (ORCID:0000000213473451)↗

Orbit determination by range-only data.

The determination of satellite orbits for use in geodesy using range-only data has been examined. A recently developed recursive algorithm for rectification of the nominal orbit after processing each observation has been tested. It is shown that when a synchronous satellite is tracked simultaneously with a subsynchronous geodetic target satellite, the orbits of each may be readily determined by processing the range information. Random data errors and satellite perturbations are included in the examples presented.

Duong, N.↗

Flight flutter testing technology at Grumman

Analysis techniques used in the automated telemetry station (ATS) for on line data reduction are encompassed in a broad range of software programs. Concepts that form the basis for the algorithms used are mathematically described. The control the user has in interfacing with various on line programs is discussed. The various programs are applied to an analysis of flight data which includes unimodal and bimodal response signals excited via a swept frequency shaker and/or random aerodynamic forces. A nonlinear response error modeling analysis approach is described. Preliminary results in the analysis of a hard spring nonlinear resonant system are also included.

Perangelo, H. J.↗

An ILLIAC program for the numerical simulation of homogeneous incompressible turbulence

An algorithm and ILLIAC computer program, developed for the simulation of homogeneous incompressible turbulence in the presence of an applied mean strain, are described. The turbulence field is represented spatially by a truncated triple Fourier series (spectral method) and followed in time using a fourth-order Runge-Kutta algorithm. These include: (1) transformation of variables suggested by Taylor's sudden-distortion theory; (2) implicit viscous diffusion by use of an integrating factor; (3) implicit pressure calculation suggested by Taylor's sudden-distortion theory, and (4) inexpensive control of aliasing by random and phased coordinate shifts.

Rogallo, R. S.↗