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At least 973 records · Page 54

Simulation studies of the impact of future observing systems on weather prediction

The features and preliminary results from a simulation system being implemented to develop realistic estimates of the impacts future data acquisition systems will have on large-scale numerical weather simulation are described. The new instruments may include advanced passive IR and microwave satellite sensors, as well as active scatterometer and lidar sounders. A main goal of the impact study is to identify those sensor systems which will provide the most benefit. The realism of the study is being enhanced by assimilating as much real-world data as possible and generating global weather maps for comparison with maps generated on the bases on the projected new, higher resolution data. Early results have indicated a preference for higher resolution wind data than for temperature data for making 1-5 day forecasts. The prime instrument candidate for collecting the data is lidar, provided the sensor resolution design goals are met.

Atlas, R.↗

The utilization of spaceborne microwave radiometers for monitoring snowpack properties

Snow accumulation and depletion at specific locations can be monitored from space by observing related variations in microwave brightness temperatures. Using vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures from the Nimbus 6 electrically scanning microwave radiometer, a discriminant function can be used to separate snow from no snow areas and map snowcovered area on a continental basis. For dry snow conditions on the Canadian high plains, significant relationships between snow depth or water equivalent and microwave brightness temperature were developed which could permit remote determination of these snow properties after acquisition of a wider range of data. The presence of melt water in the snowpack causes a marked increase in brightness temperature which can be used to predict snowpack priming and timing of runoff. As the resolutions of satellite microwave sensors improve the application of these results to snow hydrology problems should increase.

Rango, A.↗

An experimental investigation of the vaporous/gaseous cavity characteristics of an eccentric journal bearing

This paper describes the experimental pressure and temperature results obtained when rotating a shaft in an eccentric lucite casing at velocities ranging from 209 to 628 rad/s (2000 to 6000 rpm). The results are presented in terms of three-dimensional plots and contour maps. Photographic evidence is presented to illustrate how the downstream and upstream regions of the cavity develop and evolve into the well-known finger patterns. A comparison between pressure and temperature profiles in air-saturated oil and carbon dioxide-saturated oil is presented; the origin and nature of the gases contained in the cavity are discussed. Three analytical models (Swift-Stieber, separation, Floberg) predicting the formation of the cavitation zone are presented and evaluated in light of the experimental results. A motion-picture supplement depicting these results is available upon request.

Braun, M. J.↗

Modeling of a series of interplanetary disturbance events in September 1978

A series of three interplanetary disturbance events in September 1978 are modeled. Flares responsible for the three shock waves are tentatively identified. It is shown that the computed interplanetary scintillation (IPS) sky maps for flares on September 21 and 23 clearly show that the September 21 flare was responsible for the IPS event and the geomagnetic storms which were observed on September 24-25, although it has been generally believed that a flare on September 23 was their origin. Thus, this is a good example to show the usefulness of IPS observations to identify the responsible solar event and predict the arrival of the shock wave. It is also shown that the IPS event was not caused by a high speed stream from a coronal hole.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗

The Split Window Microwave Radiometer (SWMR) for hurricane wind speed measurement from space

The monitoring of hurricanes demands considerable resources each year by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Even with the extensive use of satellite and airborne probing of those storms, there is still much uncertainty involved in predicting landfall for timely evacuation of people subject to the threat. The concept of the Split Window Microwave Radiometer (SWMR) is to add an additional capability of remotely measuring surface winds to hopefully improve prediction capabilities or at least define the severity of the storm while it is far from land. Some of the present science and observational needs are addressed in this report as are remote sensing limitations which impact the design of a minimal system which can be launched into low earth orbit by a low cost launch system. This study has concluded that wind speed and rain rate maps of hurricanes can be generated with an X-Band radiometer system with an antenna whose aperture is 2 m on a side.

Swift, Calvin T.↗

Soil moisture verification study of the ESTAR microwave radiometer - Walnut Gulch, AZ 1991

The application of an electronically steered thinned array L-band radiometer (ESTAR) for soil moisture mapping is investigated over the arid rangeland Walnut Gulch Watershed. Antecedent rainfall and evaporation for the flights are very different and result in a wide range of soil moisture conditions. The high spatial variability of rainfall events within this region results in moisture conditions with dramatic spatial patterns. Sensor performance is verified using two approaches. Microwave data are used in conjunction with a microwave emission model to predict soil moisture. These predictions are compared to ground observations of soil moisture. A second verification is possible using an extensive data set. Both tests showed that the ESTAR is capable of providing soil moisture with the same level of accuracy as existing systems.

Jackson, T. J.↗

Applications of Constituent Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond that water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction community. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. This suggests that the product is of sufficient quality to be extended to other applications. This talk will enumerate these other applications and present initial results from exploratory research. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the p development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗

Results from NASA's Near Real Time Ozone Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction applications. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. Aside from providing a global synoptic map, there is verifiable geophysical information at higher vertical resolution than either of the date types input into the system. This talk will establish the validation results and enumerate applications of the ozone data assimilation system. Results from exploratory research will be presented. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗

Quantifying Grassland-to-Woodland Transitions and the Implications for Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in the Southwest United States

Replacement of grasslands and savannas by shrublands and woodlands has been widely reported in tropical, temperate and high-latitude rangelands worldwide (Archer 1994). These changes in vegetation structure may reflect historical shifts in climate and land use; and are likely to influence biodiversity, productivity, above- and below ground carbon and nitrogen sequestration and biophysical aspects of land surface-atmosphere interactions. The goal of our proposed research is to investigate how changes in the relative abundance of herbaceous and woody vegetation affect carbon and nitrogen dynamics across heterogeneous savannas and shrub/woodlands. By linking actual land-cover composition (derived through spectral mixture analysis of AVIRIS, TM, and AVHRR imagery) with a process-based ecosystem model, we will generate explicit predictions of the C and N storage in plants and soils resulting from changes in vegetation structure. Our specific objectives will be to (1) continue development and test applications of spectral mixture analysis across grassland-to-woodland transitions; (2) quantify temporal changes in plant and soil C and N storage and turnover for remote sensing and process model parameterization and verification; and (3) couple landscape fraction maps to an ecosystem simulation model to observe biogeochemical dynamics under changing landscape structure and climatological forcings.

Wessman, Carol A.↗

Basal melt beneath whillans ice stream and ice streams A and C

We have used a recently derived map of the velocity of Whillans Ice Stream and Ice Streams A and C to help estimate basal melt. Temperature was modeled with a simple vertical advection-diffusion equation, 'tuned' to match temperature profiles. We find that most of the melt occurs beneath the tributaries where larger basal shear stresses and thicker ice favors greater melt (e.g., 10-20 mm/yr). The occurrence of basal freezing is predicted beneath much of the ice plains of Ice Stream C and Whillans Ice Stream. Modelled melt rates for when Ice Stream C was active suggest there was just enough melt water generated in its tributaries to balance basal freezing on its ice plain. Net basal melt for Whillans Ice Stream is positive due to smaller basal temperature gradients. Modelled temperatures on Whillans Ice Stream, however, were constrained by a single temperature profile at UpB. Basal temperature gradients for Whillans B1 and Ice Stream A may have conditions more similar to those beneath Ice Streams C and D, in which case, there may not be sufficient melt to sustain motion. This would be consistent with the steady deceleration of Whillans stream over the last few decades.

glaciers ice sheets↗

First Use of Synoptic Vector Magnetograms for Global Nonlinear, Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Models

Context. The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently, there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimensional field lines into the solar atmosphere. Aims. For the first time, synoptic maps of a photospheric-vector magnetic field synthesized from the vector spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. Methods. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using an optimization principle in spherical geometry. The resulting threedimensional magnetic fields are used to estimate the magnetic free energy content E(sub free) = E(sub nlfff) − E(sub pot), which is the difference of the magnetic energies between the nonpotential field and the potential field in the global solar corona. For comparison, we overlay the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Results. For a single Carrington rotation 2121, we find that the global nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) magnetic energy density is 10.3% higher than the potential one. Most of this free energy is located in active regions.

Sun: corona↗

A Synthesis of the Basal Thermal State of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Greenland's thick ice sheet insulates the bedrock below from the cold temperatures at the surface, so the bottom of the ice is often tens of degrees warmer than at the top, because the ice bottom is slowly warmed by heat coming from the Earth's depths. Knowing whether Greenland's ice lies on wet, slippery ground or is anchored to dry, frozen bedrock is essential for predicting how this ice will flow in the future. But scientists have very few direct observations of the thermal conditions beneath the ice sheet, obtained through fewer than two dozen boreholes that have reached the bottom. Our study synthesizes several independent methods to infer the Greenland Ice Sheet's basal thermal state -whether the bottom of the ice is melted or not-leading to the first map that identifies frozen and thawed areas across the whole ice sheet. This map will guide targets for future investigations of the Greenland Ice Sheet toward the most vulnerable and poorly understood regions, ultimately improving our understanding of its dynamics and contribution to future sea-level rise. It is of particular relevance to ongoing Operation IceBridge activities and future large-scale airborne missions over Greenland.

IceBridge↗

Data-driven landslide nowcasting at the global scale

Landslides affect nearly every country in the world each year. To better understand this global hazard, the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed previously. LHASA version 1 combines satellite precipitation estimates with a global landslide susceptibility map to produce a gridded map of potentially hazardous areas from 60° North-South every 3 h. LHASA version 1 categorizes the world’s land surface into three ratings: high, moderate, and low hazard with a single decision tree that first determines if the last seven days of rainfall were intense, then evaluates landslide susceptibility. LHASA version 2 has been developed with a data-driven approach. The global susceptibility map was replaced with a collection of explanatory variables, and two new dynamically varying quantities were added: snow and soil moisture. Along with antecedent rainfall, these variables modulated the response to current daily rainfall. In addition, the Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) was supplemented with several inventories of rainfall-triggered landslide events. These factors were incorporated into the machine-learning framework XGBoost, which was trained to predict the presence or absence of landslides over the period 2015–2018, with the years 2019–2020 reserved for model evaluation. As a result of these improvements, the new global landslide nowcast was twice as likely to predict the occurrence of historical landslides as LHASA version 1, given the same global false positive rate. Furthermore, the shift to probabilistic outputs allows users to directly manage the trade-off between false negatives and false positives, which should make the nowcast useful for a greater variety of geographic settings and applications. In a retrospective analysis, the trained model ran over a global domain for 5 years, and results for LHASA version 1 and version 2 were compared. Due to the importance of rainfall and faults in LHASA version 2, nowcasts would be issued more frequently in some tropical countries, such as Colombia and Papua New Guinea; at the same time, the new version placed less emphasis on arid regions and areas far from the Pacific Rim. LHASA version 2 provides a nearly real-time view of global landslide hazard for a variety of stakeholders.

XGBoos↗

Predict ephemeral and perennial range quantity and quality during normal grazing season

The author has identified the following significant results. Collection and update of resource inventory data has historically been a difficult, time consuming task. Accurate resource data is necessary as a basis for wise management decisions made by a resource management agency such as the Bureau of Land Management. Black and white and color infrared composites of ERTS satellite imagery at 1:1,000,000 and enlarged scales can be used as data gathering tools. No investment in expensive sophisticated equipment is necessary. A photointerpreter can map boundaries of soils, plant communities, levels of forage production, areas revegetated by man, and areas burned by wildlife directly from satellite imagery. The ERTS system of producing and distributing imagery must be improved greatly before satellite imagery can be useful to the resource manager.

Bentley, R. G., Jr.↗

Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 2: Operational applications of satellite snow-cover observations and data-collection systems in the Arizona test site

Ground surveys and aerial observations were used to monitor rapidly changing moisture conditions in the Salt-Verde watershed. Repetitive satellite snow cover observations greatly reduce the necessity for routine aerial snow reconnaissance flights over the mountains. High resolution, multispectral imagery provided by LANDSAT satellite series enabled rapid and accurate mapping of snow-cover distributions for small- to medium-sized subwatersheds; however, the imagery provided only one observation every 9 days of about a third of the watershed. Low resolution imagery acquired by the ITOSa dn SMS/GOES meteorological satellite series provides the daily synoptic observation necessary to monitor the rapid changes in snow-covered area in the entire watershed. Short term runoff volumes can be predicted from daily sequential snow cover observations.

Schumann, H. H.↗

IRAS observations of the globular cluster 47 Tucanae

Integrated and individual-star observations of 47 Tuc obtained at 12, 25, 60, and 100 microns by IRAS are reported. The data are presented in tables and brightness contour maps and analyzed. Features discussed include integrated light dominated by stellar photospheric emission, 12- and 25-micron excesses (associated with red giants in the outer region of the cluster), and a small excess at 100 microns (attributed to integrated-light heating of about 0.0003 solar mass of silicate dust within 6 arcmin of the cluster center). It is pointed out that this is much less dust than predicted by theoretical models of accumulation since the cluster passed through the Galactic plane about 30 Myr ago, and possible dust-removal mechanisms are considered.

Gillett, F. G.↗

Structural-acoustic coupling in aircraft fuselage structures

Results of analytical and experimental investigations of structural-acoustic coupling phenomenon in an aircraft fuselage are described. The structural and acoustic cavity modes of DC-9 fuselage were determined using a finite element approach to vibration analysis. Predicted structural and acoustic dispersion curves were used to determine possible occurrences of structural-acoustic coupling for the fuselage. An aft section of DC-9 aircraft fuselage, housed in an anechoic chamber, was used for experimental investigations. The test fuselage was excited by a shaker and vibration response and interior sound field were measured using accelerometer and microphone arrays. The wavenumber-frequency structural and cavity response maps were generated from the measured data. Analysis and interpretation of the spatial plots and wavenumber maps provided the required information on modal characteristics, fuselage response and structural-acoustic coupling.

Mathur, Gopal P.↗

A structural fabric defined by topographic lineaments: Correlation with Tertiary deformation of Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg Islands, Canadian Arctic

Digital topographic contours from four 1:250000 scale maps have been gridded to produce a digital elevation model for part of Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg islands in the Canadian Arctic Islands. Gradient calculations were used to define both east and west dipping slopes defining a pattern of lineaments that have been compared with mapped geological structures. In ice-covered areas, where geological mapping was not possible, well-defined topographic lineaments have been identified and are correlated to extensions of major structural features. The northeast-southwest patterns of both topographic lineaments and mapped structures are strongly unimodal and support a single compressive event oriented at 67 deg west of north. This orientation is coincidental with the convergence direction calculated from the kinematic poles of rotation for Greenland relative to North America between 56 and 35 Ma. A minor secondary peak at 70 east of north is observed for thrust and normal fault solutions and is not directly related to the predicted convergence direction. Whether this represents a unique phase of deformation or is a subcomponent of a single event is not known. The agreement of structural components, lineament orientations, and convergence direction suggests an overwhelming over print of Eurekan deformation on any preexisting structural fabric. This study confirms, for the first time, an excellent compatibility between geological and geophysical constraints for the timing and geometry of the Eurekan orogeny.

Oakey, Gordon↗