Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “prediction models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 973 records · Page 54

In-phase and out-of-phase axial-torsional fatigue behavior of Haynes 188 at 760 C

Isothermal, in-phase and out-of-phase axial-torsional fatigue experiments have been conducted at 760 C on uniform gage section, thin-walled tubular specimens of a wrought cobalt-base superalloy, Haynes 188. Test-control and data acquisition were accomplished with a minicomputer. Fatigue lives of the in- and out-of-phase axial-torsional fatigue tests have been estimated with four different multiaxial fatigue life prediction models that were developed primarly for predicting axial-torsional fatigue lives at room temperature. The models investigated were: (1) the von Mises equivalent strain range; (2) the Modified Multiaxiality Factor Approach; (3) the Modified Smith-Watson-Topper Parameter; and (4) the critical shear plane method of Fatemi, Socie, and Kurath. In general, life predictions by the von Mises equivalent strain range model were within a factor of 2 for a majority of the tests and the predictions by the Modified Multiaxiality Factor Approach were within a factor of 2, while predictions of the Modified Smith-Watson-Topper Parameter and of the critical shear plane method of Fatemi, Socie, and Kurath were unconservative and conservative, respectively, by up to factors of 4. In some of the specimens tested under combined axial-torsional loading conditions, fatigue cracks initiated near extensometer indentations. Two design modifications have been proposed to the thin-walled tubular specimen to overcome this problem.

Kalluri, Sreeramesh↗

Shuttle payload bay thermal environments: Summary and conclusion report for STS Flights 1-5

The thermal data for the payload bay of the first five shuttle flights is summarized and the engineering evaluation of that data is presented. After a general discussion on mission profiles and vehicle configurations, the thermal design and flight instrumentation systems of the payload bay are described. The thermal flight data sources and a categorization of the data are then presented. A thermal flight data summarization section provides temperature data for the five phases of a typical mission profile. These are: prelaunch, ascent, on-orbit, entry and postlanding. The thermal flight data characterization section encompasses this flight data for flight to flight variations, payload effects, temperature ranges, and other variations. Discussion of the thermal environment prediction models in use by industry and various NASA Centers, and the results predicted by these models, is followed by an evaluation of the correlation between the actual flight data and the results predicted by the models. Finally, the available thermal data are evaluated from the viewpoint of the user concerned with establishing the thermal environment in the payload bay. The data deficiencies are discussed and recommendations for their elimination are presented.

Fu, J. H.↗

Use of the Long Duration Exposure Facility's thermal measurement system for the verification of thermal models

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) postflight thermal model predicted temperatures were matched to flight temperature data recorded by the Thermal Measurement System (THERM), LDEF experiment P0003. Flight temperatures, recorded at intervals of approximately 112 minutes for the first 390 days of LDEF's 2105 day mission were compared with predictions using the thermal mathematical model (TMM). This model was unverified prior to flight. The postflight analysis has reduced the thermal model uncertainty at the temperature sensor locations from +/- 40 F to +/- 18 F. The improved temperature predictions will be used by the LDEF's principal investigators to calculate improved flight temperatures experienced by 57 experiments located on 86 trays of the facility.

Berrios, William M.↗

All Recent Mars Landers Have Landed Downrange - Are Mars Atmosphere Models Mis-Predicting Density?

All recent Mars landers (Mars Pathfinder, the two Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity, and the Mars Phoenix Lander) have landed further downrange than their pre-entry predictions. Mars Pathfinder landed 27 km downrange of its prediction [1], Spirit and Opportunity landed 13.4 km and 14.9 km, respectively, downrange from their predictions [2], and Phoenix landed 21 km downrange from its prediction [3]. Reconstruction of their entries revealed a lower density profile than the best a priori atmospheric model predictions. Do these results suggest that there is a systemic issue in present Mars atmosphere models that predict a higher density than observed on landing day? Spirit Landing: The landing location for Spirit was 13.4 km downrange of the prediction as shown in Fig. 1. The navigation errors upon Mars arrival were very small [2]. As such, the entry interface conditions were not responsible for this downrange landing. Consequently, experiencing a lower density during the entry was the underlying cause. The reconstructed density profile that Spirit experienced is shown in Fig. 2, which is plotted as a fraction of the pre-entry baseline prediction that was used for all the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) design analyses. The reconstructed density is observed to be less dense throughout the descent reaching a maximum reduction of 15% at 21 km. This lower density corresponded to approximately a 1- low profile relative to the dispersions predicted. Nearly all the deceleration during the entry occurs within 10- 50 km. As such, prediction of density within this altitude band is most critical for entry flight dynamics analyses and design (e.g., aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic predictions, landing location, etc.).

Desai, Prasun N.↗

Combined mechanical loading of composite tubes

An analytical/experimental investigation was performed to study the effect of material nonlinearities on the response of composite tubes subjected to combined axial and torsional loading. The effect of residual stresses on subsequent mechanical response was included in the investigation. Experiments were performed on P75/934 graphite-epoxy tubes with a stacking sequence of (15/0/ + or - 10/0/ -15), using pure torsion and combined axial/torsional loading. In the presence of residual stresses, the analytical model predicted a reduction in the initial shear modulus. Experimentally, coupling between axial loading and shear strain was observed in laminated tubes under combined loading. The phenomenon was predicted by the nonlinear analytical model. The experimentally observed linear limit of the global shear response was found to correspond to the analytically predicted first ply failure. Further, the failure of the tubes was found to be path dependent above a critical load level.

Derstine, Mark S.↗

Numerical Investigation of Occupant Injury Risks During A Realistic Transport Aircraft Crash Conditions

Researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) have conducted a full-scale crash test of a Fokker F28 MK1000 aircraft to investigate the performance of transport aircraft under realistic crash conditions. This crash test was computationally recreated using finite element (FE) human body models (HBMs) to further explore potential injury risks to occupants and analyze the utilization of HBMs in the aerospace crash environment. The Global Human Body Model Consortium (GHBMC) male 50th percentile occupant detailed model (v6.0) and the Toyota Human Model for Safety (THUMS) male 50th percentile occupant model (v6.1) were selected to be used in the crash simulations. The HBMs were simulated in conditions matching those of anthropomorphic test device (ATD) experiments included within the aircraft cabin during the crash test. Seven occupant locations within the cabin were simulated utilizing each of the models. The models were positioned in a neutral upright posture with hands resting on the legs and the feet contacting the floor. Head, brain, neck, and lumbar vertebra injury metrics were calculated for all trials. Both HBM models required minor modifications to stabilize these simulations. The GHBMC model required added erosion for six parts while the THUMS model only required one in order to complete the full simulation. The THUMS model, however, required a much smaller timestep for stability and therefore took significantly more computational time. In addition the GHBMC model includes integrated instrumentation while the THUMS model requires development and implementation of instrumentation. Both models predicted 100% injury risk for lumbar vertebra fracture in all test conditions. This prediction was in family with high lumbar load values measured by the ATDs during the crash test. The THUMS model consistently predicted lower injury risks than the GHBMC model in all three other metrics varying depending on the crash pulse. Overall, the THUMS model required less modifications to allow for this study. However, the GHBMC models significantly faster run time and integrated instrumentation make it a more intuitive model for this research.

Crashworthiness↗

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program

The purpose is to develop life prediction models for coated anisotropic materials used in gas temperature airfoils. Two single crystal alloys and two coatings are now being tested. These include PWA 1480; Alloy 185; overlay coating, PWA 286; and aluminide coating, PWA 273. Constitutive models are also being developed for these materials to predict the plastic and creep strain histories of the materials in the lab tests and for actual design conditions. This nonlinear material behavior is particularily important for high temperature gas turbine applications and is basic to any life prediction system.

Swanson, G. A.↗

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section

The purpose of this program is to develop life prediction models for coated anisotropic materials used in gas turbine airfoils. In the program, two single crystal alloys and two coatings are being tested. These include PWA 1480, Alloy 185, overlay coating (PWA 286), and aluminide coating (PWA 273). Constitutive models are also being developed for these materials to predict the time independent (plastic) and time dependent (creep) strain histories of the materials in the lab tests and for actual design conditions. This nonlinear material behavior is particularly important for high temperature gas turbine applications and is basic to any life prediction system. Some of the accomplishments of the program are highlighted.

Swanson, G. A.↗

Predicting Hall Thruster Operational Lifetime

A simple analytic model predicted Hall thruster channel erosion based on thruster geometry, operating conditions, and magnetic field configuration. This model relied on a one-dimensional representation of the plasma with a fixed ionization fraction and variable ion energies based on the magnetic field distribution. Sputtering was modeled as the result of elastic scattering of ions by neutrals within the channel. Not all scattered ions and neutrals were assumed to reach the channel walls as a result of additional subsequent scattering events. Incorporating this phenomenon resulted in a greater predicted decrease in erosion rate with time than predicted based only on geometric effects. Results from this model were compared to SPT 100 experimental erosion data.

Manzella, David↗

Radiation Hardened Electronics for Space Environments (RHESE)

Radiation Environmental Modeling is crucial to proper predictive modeling and electronic response to the radiation environment. When compared to on-orbit data, CREME96 has been shown to be inaccurate in predicting the radiation environment. The NEDD bases much of its radiation environment data on CREME96 output. Close coordination and partnership with DoD radiation-hardened efforts will result in leveraged - not duplicated or independently developed - technology capabilities of: a) Radiation-hardened, reconfigurable FPGA-based electronics; and b) High Performance Processors (NOT duplication or independent development).

Keys, Andrew S.↗

Atmospheric Composition Forecast Model Evaluation Using Ozone Measurements Collected by the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar

The Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL) is a mobile ground based lidar system based at NASA Langley in Hampton, Virginia. Between 2022 and 2024, LMOL collected over 2500 hours of ozone measurements for a range of different atmospheric conditions, including calm days, stratospheric intrusions, surface frontal passages, and long-range transported wildfire smoke plumes. Here, the data is used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of NASA’s Global GEOS Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) model. GEOS-CF makes daily three-dimensional forecasts of trace gases and aerosol species. Overall, for calm periods, the forecast model predicts lower tropospheric ozone at NASA Langley with reasonable accuracy (within 20%). The model best predicts the timing and extent of stratospheric intrusions but often vary in the magnitude of the ozone mixing ratio. Among the other types of atmospheric conditions, there is more variability in the model forecasts. Based on this analysis, model forecasts are utilized to determine future data acquisition opportunities with the goal of providing feedback to the modeling teams, thereby enabling them to better understand the model biases and improve the model forecasts of ozone during these different atmospheric conditions.

Daniel B Phoenix↗

Advanced development of atmospheric models

A set of atmospheric analysis and prediction models was developed in support of the SEASAT Program existing objective analysis models which utilize a 125x125 polar stereographic grid of the Northern Hemisphere, which were modified in order to incorporate and assess the impact of (real or simulated) satellite data in the analysis of a two-day meteorological scenario in January 1979. Program/procedural changes included: (1) a provision to utilize winds in the sea level pressure and multi-level height analyses (1000-100 MBS); (2) The capability to perform a pre-analysis at two control levels (1000 MBS and 250 MBS); (3) a greater degree of wind- and mass-field coupling, especially at these controls levels; (4) an improved facility to bogus the analyses based on results of the preanalysis; and (5) a provision to utilize (SIRS) satellite thickness values and cloud motion vectors in the multi-level height analysis.

Kesel, P. G.↗

Cryogenic Tank Modeling for the Saturn AS-203 Experiment

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed for the Saturn S-IVB liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank to simulate the 1966 AS-203 flight experiment. This significant experiment is the only known, adequately-instrumented, low-gravity, cryogenic self pressurization test that is well suited for CFD model validation. A 4000-cell, axisymmetric model predicts motion of the LH2 surface including boil-off and thermal stratification in the liquid and gas phases. The model is based on a modified version of the commercially available FLOW3D software. During the experiment, heat enters the LH2 tank through the tank forward dome, side wall, aft dome, and common bulkhead. In both model and test the liquid and gases thermally stratify in the low-gravity natural convection environment. LH2 boils at the free surface which in turn increases the pressure within the tank during the 5360 second experiment. The Saturn S-IVB tank model is shown to accurately simulate the self pressurization and thermal stratification in the 1966 AS-203 test. The average predicted pressurization rate is within 4% of the pressure rise rate suggested by test data. Ullage temperature results are also in good agreement with the test where the model predicts an ullage temperature rise rate within 6% of the measured data. The model is based on first principles only and includes no adjustments to bring the predictions closer to the test data. Although quantitative model validation is achieved or one specific case, a significant step is taken towards demonstrating general use of CFD for low-gravity cryogenic fluid modeling.

Grayson, Gary D.↗

Geometry and mass model of ionizing radiation experiments on the LDEF satellite

Extensive measurements related to ionizing radiation environments and effects were made on the LDEF satellite during its mission lifetime of almost 6 years. These data, together with the opportunity they provide for evaluating predictive models and analysis methods, should allow more accurate assessments of the space radiation environment and related effects for future missions in low Earth orbit. The LDEF radiation dosimetry data is influenced to varying degrees by material shielding effects due to the dosimeter itself, nearby components and experiments, and the spacecraft structure. A geometry and mass model is generated of LDEF, incorporating sufficient detail that it can be applied in determining the influence of material shielding on ionizing radiation measurements and predictions. This model can be used as an aid in data interpretation by unfolding shielding effects from the LDEF radiation dosimeter responses. Use of the LDEF geometry/mass model, in conjunction with predictions and comparisons with LDEF dosimetry data currently underway, will also allow more definitive evaluations of current radiation models for future mission applications.

Colborn, B. L.↗

An analysis of return flux from the Space Shuttle Orbiter RCS engines

The return flux from the Space Shuttle Orbiter reaction control system (RCS) engines to sensors in the open payload bay has been analyzed on the basis of Shuttle/Payload Contamination Evaluation (SPACE II) model predictions and orbital flight measurements. Model data are presented showing the variations of molecular return flux values with Orbiter orientation and instrument direction. The effects of multiple molecular collisions within RCS engine plumes and in their vicinity are discussed. These collisions significantly influence the amount of plume molecules returning to payload instruments and, therefore, the amount of contaminants received.

Ehlers, H. K. F.↗

Solar cycle variations of the anomalous cosmic ray component

The intensity of the anomalous cosmic ray component, consisting of He, N, O, and Ne, has long been known to be especially sensitive to the effects of solar modulation. Following its discovery in 1972, this component dominated the quiet-time flux of cosmic ray nuclei below approximately 30 MeV/nucleon during the 1972 to 1978 solar minimum, but then became essentially unobservable at 1 AU with the approach of solar maximum conditions. One recent theoretical model predicts substantial differences in the intensity of the anomalous fluxes from one solar minimum period to the next because of the reversal of the solar magnetic field. Using data from the Caltech experiments on IMP-8 and ICE (ISEE-3), the intensity of anomalous O and He at 1 AU during the years 1972 to 1985 is reported. We hope to determine whether the anomalous fluxes will return to their 1972 to 1978 levels, as predicted by spherically symmetric modulation models, or whether they will fail to return to 1 AU, as suggested by modulation models in which gradient and curvature drifts dominate.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗

Solar cycle variations of the anomalous cosmic ray component

The intensity of the anomalous cosmic ray component, consisting of He, N, O, and Ne, has long been known to be especially sensitive to the effects of solar modulation. Following its discovery in 1972, this component dominated the quiet time flux of cosmic ray nuclei below approx. 30 MeV/nucleon during the 1972 to 1978 solar minimum, but then became essentially unobservable at 1 AU with the approach of solar maximum conditions. One recent theoretical model predicts substantial differences in the intensity of the anomalous fluxes from one solar minimum period to the next because of the reversal of the solar magnetic field. Using data from the Caltech experiments on IMP-8 and ICE (ISEE-3), the intensity of anomalous O and He at 1 AU during the years 1972 to 1985 is reported in particular. Whether the anomalous fluxes will return to their 1972-1978 levels, as predicted by spherically symmetric modulation models, or whether they will fail to return to 1 AU, as suggested by modulation models in which gradient and curvature drifts dominate are to be determined. The preliminary analysis of data from 1984 shows that the intensity of 8 to 27 MeV/nucleon O is still more than an order of magnitude below its 1972 to 1978 levels, while the intensity of 25 to 43 MeV/nucleon He is a factor of Approx. 8 below its maximum level in 1977.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗

Mars atmospheric circulation - Aspects from Viking Landers

Winds measured by the two Viking Landers have been filtered and then compared with predictions from the general circulation model and to Orbiter observations of clouds and surface phenomena that indicate wind direction. This was done to determine the degree to which filtered winds may represent aspects of the general circulation. Excellent agreement was found between wind direction data from Lander 1 and the model predictions and Orbiter observations. For Lander 2, agreement was generally good, but there were periods of disagreement which indicate that the filtering did not remove other extraneous effects. It is concluded that Lander 1 gives a good representation of the general circulation at 22.5 deg N latitude but that Lander 2 is suspect. Most wind data from Lander 1 have yet to be analyzed. It appears that when analyzed these Lander 1 data (covering 3.5 Mars years) can provide information about interannual variations in the general circulation at the Lander latitude.

Ryan, J. A.↗