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At least 973 records · Page 54

Optimal experimental design: Formulations and computations

Questions of ‘how best to acquire data’ are essential to modelling and prediction in the natural and social sciences, engineering applications, and beyond. Optimal experimental design (OED) formalizes these questions and creates computational methods to answer them. This article presents a systematic survey of modern OED, from its foundations in classical design theory to current research involving OED for complex models. We begin by reviewing criteria used to formulate an OED problem and thus to encode the goal of performing an experiment. We emphasize the flexibility of the Bayesian and decision-theoretic approach, which encompasses information-based criteria that are well-suited to nonlinear and non-Gaussian statistical models. We then discuss methods for estimating or bounding the values of these design criteria; this endeavour can be quite challenging due to strong nonlinearities, high parameter dimension, large per-sample costs, or settings where the model is implicit. A complementary set of computational issues involves optimization methods used to find a design; we discuss such methods in the discrete (combinatorial) setting of observation selection and in settings where an exact design can be continuously parametrized. Finally we present emerging methods for sequential OED that build non-myopic design policies, rather than explicit designs; these methods naturally adapt to the outcomes of past experiments in proposing new experiments, while seeking coordination among all experiments to be performed. Throughout, we highlight important open questions and challenges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Solution-Processable High-Modulus Crystalline Artificial Solid Electrolyte Interphase for Practical Lithium Metal Batteries

The solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) has been identified as a key challenge for Li metal anodes. The brittle and inhomogeneous native SEI generated by parasitic reactions between Li and liquid electrolytes can devastate battery performance; therefore, artificial SEIs (ASEIs) have been proposed as an effective strategy to replace native SEIs. Herein, as a collaboration between academia and industrial R&D teams, a multifunctional (crystalline, high modulus, and robust, Li + ion conductive, electrolyte-blocking, and solution processable) ASEI material, LiAl-FBD (where “FBD” refers to 2,2,3,3-tetra-fluoro-1,4-butanediol), for improving Li metal battery performance is designed and synthesized. The LiAl-FBD crystal structure consists of Al 3+ ions bridged by FBD 2– ligands to form anion clusters while Li + ions are loosely bound at the periphery, enabling an Li + ion conductivity of 9.4 × 10 –6 S cm –1 . Further, the fluorinated, short ligands endow LiAl-FBD with electrolyte phobicity and high modulus. The ASEI is found to prevent side reactions and extend the cycle life of Li metal electrodes. Specifically, pairing LiAl-FBD coated 50 μm thick Li with industrial 3.5 mAh cm –2 NMC811 cathode and 2.8 μL mAh –1 lean elec-trolyte, the Li metal full cells show superior cycle life compared to bare ones, achieving 250 cycles at 1 mA cm –2 .

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Origins of electronic bands in the antiferromagnetic topological insulator MnBi 2 Te 4

Despite the rapid progress in understanding the first intrinsic magnetic topological insulator MnBi 2 Te 4 , its electronic structure remains a topic under debates. In this work, we perform a thorough spectroscopic investigation into the electronic structure of MnBi 2 Te 4 via laser-based angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy. Through quantitative analysis, we estimate an upper bound of 3 meV for the gap size of the topological surface state. Furthermore, our circular dichroism measurements reveal band chiralities for both the topological surface state and quasi-2D bands, which can be well reproduced in a band hybridization model. A numerical simulation of energy-momentum dispersions based on a four-band model with an additional step potential near the surface provides a promising explanation for the origin of the quasi-2D bands. Our study represents a solid step forward in reconciling the existing controversies in the electronic structure of MnBi 2 Te 4 , and provides an important framework to understand the electronic structures of other relevant topological materials MnBi 2n Te 3n+1 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Gate-Based Quantum Simulation of Gaussian Bosonic Circuits on Exponentially Many Modes

We introduce a framework for simulating, on an ( n + 1 )-qubit quantum computer, the action of a Gaussian bosonic (GB) circuit on a state over 2 n modes. Specifically, we encode the initial bosonic state’s expectation values over quadrature operators (and their covariance matrix) as an input qubit state. This is then evolved by a quantum circuit that effectively implements the symplectic propagators induced by the GB gates. We find families of GB circuits and initial states leading to efficient quantum simulations. For this purpose, we introduce a dictionary that maps between GB and qubit gates such that particle- (non-particle-) preserving GB gates lead to real- (imaginary-) time evolutions at the qubit level. For the special case of particle-preserving circuits, we present a bounded-error-quantum-polynomial time (BQP)-complete GB decision problem, indicating that GB evolutions of Gaussian states on exponentially many modes are as powerful as universal quantum computers. We also perform numerical simulations of an interferometer on ∼ 8 × 10 9 modes, illustrating the power of our framework. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Hydrodynamic Predictions for the Next Outburst of T Coronae Borealis: It Will Be the Brightest Classical or Recurrent Nova Ever Observed in X-Rays*

T Coronae Borealis (TCrB) is a recurrent nova with recorded outbursts in 1866 and 1946 and possible outbursts in 1217 and 1787. It is predicted to explode again in 2025 or 2026 based on multiple observational studies. The system consists of a massive ( M wd ≳ 1.35 M ⊙ ) white dwarf (WD) and a red giant (M3–M4 III). We have performed 1D hydrodynamic simulations with NOVA to predict the behavior of the next outburst. These simulations consist of a range of mass accretion rates onto ∼1.35 M ⊙ WDs, designed to bound the conditions necessary to achieve ignition of an explosion after an ≈80 yr interoutburst period. We have used both carbon–oxygen and oxygen–neon initial compositions, in order to include the possible ejecta abundances to be measured in the observations of the next outburst. As the WD in the TCrB system is observed to be massive, theoretical predictions reported here imply that the WD is growing in mass as a consequence of the thermonuclear runaway. Therefore, the secular evolution of the WD may allow it to approach the Chandrasekhar limit and either explode as a Type Ia supernova or undergo accretion-induced collapse, depending on its underlying composition. We have followed the evolution of just the WD, after removing the ejected matter from the surface layers. Our intent is to illuminate the mystery of the unique, second maximum in the two well-observed outbursts and we have found conditions that bracket the predictions.

Cataclysmic variable stars↗

Reliable use of determinants to solve nonlinear structural eigenvalue problems efficiently

The analytical derivation, numerical implementation, and performance of a multiple-determinant parabolic interpolation method (MDPIM) for use in solving transcendental eigenvalue (critical buckling or undamped free vibration) problems in structural mechanics are presented. The overall bounding, eigenvalue-separation, qualified parabolic interpolation, accuracy-confirmation, and convergence-recovery stages of the MDPIM are described in detail, and the numbers of iterations required to solve sample plane-frame problems using the MDPIM are compared with those for a conventional bisection method and for the Newtonian method of Simpson (1984) in extensive tables. The MDPIM is shown to use 31 percent less computation time than bisection when accuracy of 0.0001 is required, but 62 percent less when accuracy of 10 to the -8th is required; the time savings over the Newtonian method are about 10 percent.

Williams, F. W.↗

Fast causal multicast

A new protocol is presented that efficiently implements a reliable, causally ordered multicast primitive and is easily extended into a totally ordered one. Intended for use in the ISIS toolkit, it offers a way to bypass the most costly aspects of ISIS while benefiting from virtual synchrony. The facility scales with bounded overhead. Measured speedups of more than an order of magnitude were obtained when the protocol was implemented within ISIS. One conclusion is that systems such as ISIS can achieve performance competitive with the best existing multicast facilities - a finding contradicting the widespread concern that fault-tolerance may be unacceptably costly.

Birman, Kenneth P.↗

Fast casual multicast

A new protocol is presented that efficiently implements a reliable, causally ordered multicast primitive and is easily extended into a totally ordered one. Intended for use in the ISIS toolkit, it offers a way to bypass the most costly aspects of ISIS while benefiting from virtual synchrony. The facility scales with bounded overhead. Measured speedups of more than an order of magnitude were obtained when the protocol was implemented within ISIS. One conclusion is that systems such as ISIS can achieve performance competitive with the best existing multicast facilities--a finding contradicting the widespread concern that fault-tolerance may be unacceptably costly.

Birman, Kenneth↗

Nondimensional impact models for composite laminates

The equations governing the problem of low-velocity impact of a simply supported rectangular laminated plate are nondimensionalized such that the problem is defined in terms of five dimensionless parameters. A parametric study using the Graeco-Latin Factorial Plan is performed. Semi-empirical formulas for maximum impact force, impact duration, and maximum back surface strains are obtained. It is found that some of the simple impact models provide the bounds for the case of impact on a finite extent plate.

Sankar, B. V.↗

Concurrent material-fabrication optimization of metal-matrix laminates under thermo-mechanical loading

A methodology is developed to tailor fabrication and material parameters of metal-matrix laminates for maximum loading capacity under thermomechanical loads. The stresses during the thermomechanical response are minimized subject to failure constrains and bounds on the laminate properties. The thermomechanical response of the laminate is simulated using nonlinear composite mechanics. Evaluations of the method on a graphite/copper symmetric cross-ply laminate were performed. The cross-ply laminate required different optimum fabrication procedures than a unidirectional composite. Also, the consideration of the thermomechanical cycle had a significant effect on the predicted optimal process.

Saravanos, D. A.↗

Scaling of low-velocity impact for symmetric composite laminates

The equations governing the problem of low-velocity impact of a simply supported rectangular midplane-symmetric laminated plate are nondimensionalized such that the problem is defined in terms of five dimensionless parameters. A parametric study using the Graeco-Latin Factorial Plan is performed. Semi-empirical formulas for maximum impact force, impact duration, and maximum back surface strains are obtained. It is found that some of the simple impact models provide the bounds for the case of impact on a finite extent plate. A one parameter model is derived for impacts of short duration.

Sankar, Bhavani V.↗

Calculations of Diffuser Flows with an Anisotropic K-Epsilon Model

A newly developed anisotropic K-epsilon model is applied to calculate three axisymmetric diffuser flows with or without separation. The new model uses a quadratic stress-strain relation and satisfies the realizability conditions, i.e., it ensures both the positivity of the turbulent normal stresses and the Schwarz' inequality between any fluctuating velocities. Calculations are carried out with a finite-element method. A second-order accurate, bounded convection scheme and sufficiently fine grids are used to ensure numerical credibility of the solutions. The standard K-epsilon model is also used in order to highlight the performance of the new model. Comparison with the experimental data shows that the anisotropic K-epsilon model performs consistently better than does the standard K-epsilon model in all of the three test cases.

Zhu, J.↗

Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.

Murphy, Kevin J.↗

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Spacecraft Lithium Ion Battery Micro-Cycling Investigation

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft was jointly developed by NASA and JAXA. It is a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft launched on February 27, 2014. The power system is a Direct Energy Transfer (DET) system designed to support 1950 watts orbit average power. The batteries use SONY 18650HC cells and consist of three 8s by 84p batteries operated in parallel as a single battery. During instrument integration with the spacecraft, large current transients were observed in the battery. Investigation into the matter traced the cause to the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) phased array radar which generates cyclical high rate current transients on the spacecraft power bus. The power system electronics interaction with these transients resulted in the current transients in the battery. An accelerated test program was developed to bound the effect, and to assess the impact to the mission.

Lithium Ion Battery Performance↗

On the Development of Shell Buckling Knockdown Factors for Stiffened Metallic Launch Vehicle Cylinders

From the 1920s to the early 1970s, many shell buckling experiments were conducted in an effort to understand the complex buckling behavior exhibited by thin-walled cylindrical shells, to provide data to correlate with new shell stability theories, and provide design guidelines. Typically, the experiments yielded buckling loads that were substantially lower than the corresponding analytical predictions, which were based on simplified linear bifurcation analyses of geometrically perfect shells with nominal dimensions and idealized boundary conditions. The seminal works by von Kármán and Tsien, by Donnell and Wan, and by Koiter identified small deviations from the idealized geometry of a shell, known as initial geometric imperfections, as a primary source of the discrepancy between corresponding analytical predictions and experimental results. However, the computational tools and capabilities at that time could not perform the nonlinear analyses needed to assess the effects of these imperfections on the buckling behavior of thin-walled shells. Thus, buckling design allowables were determined by establishing lower bounds to test data. Specifically, empirical design factors, that have become known as knockdown factors, were determined and were to be used in conjunction with linear bifurcation analyses for simply supported shells; that is, these empirical factors were used to "knock down" the value of the unconservative simplified analytical prediction. This approach to shell buckling design has proved satisfactory for most design purposes and remains prominent in industry practice, as evidenced by the extensive use of the NASA space vehicle design criteria and recommendations. Unfortunately, the current design guidelines have not been updated since they were first published in the late 1960s and may not be able to take full advantage of modern materials, precision manufacturing processes, and new structural concepts.

Hilburger, Mark W.↗

Isolator Shock Train Response to Dual-Mode Scramjet Throttling-Like Forcing

Typical dual-mode scramjet designs employ an isolator component situated between the inlet and combustor. The isolator fluidically buffers the inlet from the combustor via the formation of a shock train, an interconnected series of shock-boundary layer interactions. The isolator is required during ramjet-engine operation and at the lower edges of the scramjet operational envelope. In an operational engine, transient behavior imposes fluidic dynamics due to attitude adjustments, combustor throttling, aberrant resonances within the combustor, etc. To accommodate these transients, the shock train adjusts on both temporal and spatial scales. Sufficiently large downstream pressure increases in the combustor play a critical role during unstart, whereby strong compression waves propagate upstream in the isolator to ultimately force the shock train out the inlet, if it cannot stabilize to the pressure increase. This critically reduces the engine mass flow rate, potentially causing a catastrophic reduction in thrust and loss of the vehicle. A nearly instantaneous unstart can, in principle, be predicted by a ratio of the normal shock pressure jump in an inviscid isolator. However, lower-magnitude perturbations, below this bound, also induce unstarts. Understanding the transient behavior inherent in unsteady isolator operation is critical to reducing safety margin in isolator length and refining engine control algorithms to improve engine performance. The Isolator Dynamics Research Lab (IDRL) is a cold-flow, direct-connect isolator facility ideal for assessing the fundamental fluid dynamics of shock trains. The internal flow of a scramjet isolator is modeled using a 2D, symmetric Mach 2.5 nozzle followed by a 695 mm long, 25.4x50.8 mm rectangular isolator test section. A blockage cone on a high-speed ball screw actuator downstream of the isolator is pulsed to simulate the throttling behavior in an operational combustor. Wall flush high-speed static pressure transducers detect the streamwise shock train within the isolator. Time delays between the onset of the throttling and the response motion of the shock train are analyzed to assess the controlling scales and parameters. From this analysis, the response time of the isolator shock train system is found to depend primarily on the isolator back pressure time-rate-of-change but quickly saturates to a maximum propagation speed along the isolator. These results inform dual-mode scramjet engine designers of the critical parameters and limits of an unstart resistant engine.

scramjet↗

A Review on the State of the Art of Machine Learning and Satellite Imaging: Detecting Scene Changes in Selected Nuclear Fuel Cycle Datasets

The timely detection of clandestine nuclear facilities is one of the greatest challenges faced by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA). Idaho National Laboratory is currently applying machine learning (ML) to existing satellite imagery (SI) datasets to find facilities within the nuclear fuel life cycle, with primary focus placed on identifying critical predecessor (i.e., fuel fabrication and fuel enrichment) and successor (i.e., nuclear power plants) facilities. This could provide a satellite image methodology that the IAEA could leverage to discover clandestine facilities. The work presented in this paper describes the evolution of a workflow developed by this team for object detection related to critical infrastructure by expanding that workflow for the purpose of identifying nuclear fuel cycle components and automating dependency assessments. This will be done using two methods housed within a single pipeline. The first method involves implementing a DenseNet161 convolutional neural network to classify the images and explain the results using Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME). The second method implements You Only Look Once version 5 (YoloV5), to detect objects within images, provide a probability for the detection, and provide a bounding box that corresponds to the object of interest. The results of this work are anticipated to provide a clear picture of this portion of the nuclear fuel cycle and perform as a stand-alone tool for image assessment that can be expanded to additional fuel cycle components and implemented in international safeguards and national security domains. This capability addresses the IAEA’s need to detect undeclared nuclear materials and activities within a state while encompassing the entire nuclear fuel cycle.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗