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At least 973 records · Page 54

Nuclear physics and cosmology

Nuclear physics has provided one of two critical observational tests of all Big Bang cosmology, namely Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. Furthermore, this same nuclear physics input enables a prediction to be made about one of the most fundamental physics questions of all, the number of elementary particle families. The standard Big Bang Nucleosynthesis arguments are reviewed. The primordial He abundance is inferred from He-C and He-N and He-O correlations. The strengthened Li constraint as well as D-2 plus He-3 are used to limit the baryon density. This limit is the key argument behind the need for non-baryonic dark matter. The allowed number of neutrino families, N(nu), is delineated using the new neutron lifetime value of tau(n) = 890 + or - 4s (tau(1/2) = 10.3 min). The formal statistical result is N(nu) = 2.6 + or - 0.3 (1 sigma), providing a reasonable fit (1.3 sigma) to three families but making a fourth light (m(nu) less than or equal to 10 MeV) neutrino family exceedly unlikely (approx. greater than 4.7 sigma). It is also shown that uncertainties induced by postulating a first-order quark-baryon phase transition do not seriously affect the conclusions.

Schramm, David N.↗

On the Asymptotic Regimes and the Strongly Stratified Limit of Rotating Boussinesq Equations

Asymptotic regimes of geophysical dynamics are described for different Burger number limits. Rotating Boussinesq equations are analyzed in the asymptotic limit, of strong stratification in the Burger number of order one situation as well as in the asymptotic regime of strong stratification and weak rotation. It is shown that in both regimes horizontally averaged buoyancy variable is an adiabatic invariant for the full Boussinesq system. Spectral phase shift corrections to the buoyancy time scale associated with vertical shearing of this invariant are deduced. Statistical dephasing effects induced by turbulent processes on inertial-gravity waves are evidenced. The 'split' of the energy transfer of the vortical and the wave components is established in the Craya-Herring cyclic basis. As the Burger number increases from zero to infinity, we demonstrate gradual unfreezing of energy cascades for ageostrophic dynamics. The energy spectrum and the anisotropic spectral eddy viscosity are deduced with an explicit dependence on the anisotropic rotation/stratification time scale which depends on the vertical aspect ratio parameter. Intermediate asymptotic regime corresponding to strong stratification and weak rotation is analyzed where the effects of weak rotation are accounted for by an asymptotic expansion with full control (saturation) of vertical shearing. The regularizing effect of weak rotation differs from regularizations based on vertical viscosity. Two scalar prognostic equations for ageostrophic components (divergent velocity potential and geostrophic departure ) are obtained.

Babin, A.↗

Seismic Excitation of the Polar Motion

The mass redistribution in the earth as a result of an earthquake faulting changes the earth's inertia tensor, and hence its rotation. Using the complete formulae developed by Chao and Gross (1987) based on the normal mode theory, we calculated the earthquake-induced polar motion excitation for the largest 11,015 earthquakes that occurred during 1977.0-1993.6. The seismic excitations in this period are found to be two orders of magnitude below the detection threshold even with today's high precision earth rotation measurements. However, it was calculated that an earthquake of only one tenth the size of the great 1960 Chile event, if happened today, could be comfortably detected in polar motion observations. Furthermore, collectively these seismic excitations have a strong statistical tendency to nudge the pole towards approx. 140 deg E, away from the actually observed polar drift direction. This non-random behavior, similarly found in other earthquake-induced changes in earth rotation and low-degree gravitational field by Chao and Gross (1987), manifests some geodynamic behavior yet to be explored.

Chao, Benjamin Fong↗

Seismic Excitation of the Polar Motion, 1977-1993

The mass redistribution in the earth as a result of an earthquake faulting changes the earth's inertia tensor, and hence its rotation. Using the complete formulae developed by CHAO and GROSS (1987) based on the normal mode theory, we calculated the earthquake-induced polar motion excitation for the largest 11,015 earthquakes that occurred during 1977.0-1993.6. The seismic excitations in this period are found to be two orders of magnitude below the detection threshold even with today's high precision earth rotation measurements. However, it was calculated that an earthquake of only one tenth the size of the great 1960 Chile event, if happened today, could be comfortably detected in polar motion observations. Furthermore, collectively these seismic excitations have a strong statistical tendency to nudge the pole towards approximately 140deg E, away from the actual observed polar drift direction. This non-random behavior, similarly found in other earthquake-induced changes in earth rotation and low-degree gravitational field by CHAO and GROSS (1987), manifests some geodynamic behavior yet to be explored.

Chao, Benjamin Fong↗

Allowables for Structural Composites

In order to obtain the most benefit from building a structure with composite laminates, the strength of the laminate must be known. Based on the "weakest link" theory, the lower strength numbers obtained from testing are the ones to be used for design and analysis. The strength value to be used is determined by a statistical analysis of the test data, and is known as an allowable. MIL-HDBK- 17 outlines procedures to follow for determining these allowables. There are two types of statistically determined allowables, A- Basis and B-Basis. A-Basis is defined as a strength value at which only 1 in 100 specimens will fail with a 95% confidence level. B-Basis is a strength value at which only 10 in 100 specimens will fail with a 95% confidence level. As more specimens are tested a higher value of strength can be used as a valid allowable. Composites are highly process dependent and show much strength variation with environment, so it is critical to test materials and environments that are representative of hardware. Either using data obtained from a previous test series, or extrapolation to a certain temperature is highly discouraged.

Nettles, Alan T.↗

Safeguarding a Lunar Rover with Wald's Sequential Probability Ratio Test

The virtual bumper is a safeguarding mechanism for autonomous and remotely operated robots. In this paper we take a new approach to the virtual bumper system by using an old statistical test. By using a modified version of Wald's sequential probability ratio test we demonstrate that we can reduce the number of false positive reported by the virtual bumper, thereby saving valuable mission time. We use the concept of sequential probability ratio to control vehicle speed in the presence of possible obstacles in order to increase certainty about whether or not obstacles are present. Our new algorithm reduces the chances of collision by approximately 98 relative to traditional virtual bumper safeguarding without speed control.

safeguarding↗

The Integrated Medical Model: Outcomes from Independent Review

In 2016, the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) v4.0 underwent an extensive external review in preparation for transition to an operational status. In order to insure impartiality of the review process, the Exploration Medical Capabilities Element of NASA's Human Research Program convened the review through the Systems Review Office at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The review board convened by GSFC consisted of persons from both NASA and academia with expertise in the fields of statistics, epidemiology, modeling, software development, aerospace medicine, and project management (see Figure 1). The board reviewed software and code standards, as well as evidence pedigree associated with both the input and outcomes information. The board also assesses the models verification, validation, sensitivity to parameters and ability to answer operational questions. This talk will discuss the processes for designing the review, how the review progressed and the findings from the board, as well as summarize the IMM project responses to those findings. Overall, the board found that the IMM is scientifically sound, represents a necessary, comprehensive approach to identifying medical and environmental risks facing astronauts in long duration missions and is an excellent tool for communication between engineers and physicians. The board also found IMM and its customer(s) should convene an additional review of the IMM data sources and to develop a sustainable approach to augment, peer review, and maintain the information utilized in the IMM. The board found this is critically important because medical knowledge continues to evolve. Delivery of IMM v4.0 to the Crew Health and Safety (CHS) Program will occur in the 2017. Once delivered for operational decision support, IMM v4.0 will provide CHS with additional quantitative capability in to assess astronaut medical risks and required medical capabilities to help drive down overall mission risks.

medical equipment↗

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Launch Vehicle↗

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗

The Orbiting Wide-Angle Light Collectors (OWL) Mission for Charged-Particle Astronomy

The space-based OWL mission is designed to perform high-statistics measurements of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECR) using the Earth's atmosphere as a vast particle calorimeter, furthering the field of charged-particle astronomy. OWL has been developed in formal NASA instrument and mission studies and is comprised of two large telescopes separated by approx.600 km in 1000 km, near-equatorial orbits to stereoscopically image the near-UV air fluorescence emitted by UHECR-induced particle cascades. The High Resolution Fly's Eye (HiRes) Collaboration, and subsequently the Pierre Auger Observatory, recently reported confirmation of the expected Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin (GZK) suppression of the UHECR flux above a few times 10(exp 19) eV. This observation is consistent with the majority of UHECR originating in astrophysical objects and reduces the need to invoke exotic physical processes. Particles observed above the GZK threshold energy must have come from sources within about 100 Mpc from the Earth. The small particle deflection angles expected at UHECR energies, with standard assumptions of extragalactic magnetic fields, are on the order of 1 degree. Thus by observing particles above the GZK threshold with sufficient exposure, there is the potential of identifying and characterizing individual UHECR sources. Auger has reported significant anisotropy in the arrival directions of UHECR at energies above about 6 10(exp 19) eV observed in the South, and a correlation to AGN in the 12th VCV catalog, suggesting that the sources of UHECR are traced by the distribution of luminous matter in the Universe. However, with similar statistics and the same event selection criteria, HiRes observations in the North are consistent with isotropy. Extended observations by Auger-South, by Telescope Array in the North, and possibly by the proposed Auger-North, will further these investigations. However, much greater exposures will be required to fully identify individual sources and measure their cosmic ray spectra. A five-year OWL mission would deliver approximately 10(exp 6)sq km/sr/yr of exposure with full aperture reached at approx. 10(exp 19) eV. The baseline 3 m optical aperture OWL telescopes with 45 degree full field-of-view are easily accomodated on a single conventional launch vehicle. On orbit, the simultaneous viewing of the same volume of atmosphere allows for precise stereo event reconstruction, which is nearly independent of the inclination of the particle track and tolerant of atmospheric conditions. The availability of monocular operation provides increased reliability or can be employed to increase the instantaneous aperture. In stereo mode, OWL is also capable of fully reconstructing horizontal or upward-moving showers and so has unmatched sensitivity to neutrino-induced events. The details of the OWL mission will he presented and its science capabilities will be discussed.

Mitchell, John↗

A stochastic-dynamic model for global atmospheric mass field statistics

A model that yields the spatial correlation structure of atmospheric mass field forecast errors was developed. The model is governed by the potential vorticity equation forced by random noise. Expansion in spherical harmonics and correlation function was computed analytically using the expansion coefficients. The finite difference equivalent was solved using a fast Poisson solver and the correlation function was computed using stratified sampling of the individual realization of F(omega) and hence of phi(omega). A higher order equation for gamma was derived and solved directly in finite differences by two successive applications of the fast Poisson solver. The methods were compared for accuracy and efficiency and the third method was chosen as clearly superior. The results agree well with the latitude dependence of observed atmospheric correlation data. The value of the parameter c sub o which gives the best fit to the data is close to the value expected from dynamical considerations.

Ghil, M.↗

Stochastic modeling of the time-advanced equations for climate dynamics

Long term, climatologically significant statistical properties of the atmospheric component of the climate system are examined in an effort to correctly and efficiently incorporate this component into larger models for climate that include oceanic and cryospheric influences and deal realistically with climate replication. The magnetic of the unpredictable (noise) component of long term atmospheric behavior is also studied in order to develop the potential for viable climatological forecasting.

Laurmann, J. A.↗

Optimized multisectioned acoustic liners

A critical examination is presented of the use of optimized axially segmented acoustic liners to increase the attenuation of a liner. New calculations show that segmenting is most efficient at high frequencies with relatively long duct lengths where the attenuation is low for both uniform and segmented liners. Statistical considerations indicate little advantage in using optimized liners with more than two segments while the bandwidth of an optimized two-segment liner is shown to be nearly equal to that of a uniform liner. Multielement liner calculations show a large degradation in performance due to changes in assumed input modal structure. Finally, in order to substantiate previous and future analytical results, in-house (finite difference) and contractor (mode matching) programs are used to generate theoretical attenuations for a number of liner configurations for liners in a rectangular duct with no mean flow. Overall, the use of optimized multisectioned liners (sometimes called phased liners) fails to offer sufficient advantage over a uniform liner to warrant their use except in low frequency single mode application.

Baumeister, K. J.↗

Node Synchronization for the Viterbi Decoder

At very low signal to noise ratios such as those that Voyager 2 will encounter at Uranus, the performance of the Reed-Solomon/Viterbi concatenated coding system could be seriously degraded by loss of node synchronization by the Viterbi decoder. This problem is described and now it can be almost completely avoided with a simple outboard hardware ""node synchronizer''. This device makes statistical decisions about node sync based on the hard quantized undecoded data stream. In a worst case Voyager-like environment, our method will detect and correct a true loss of node sync (thought to be a very rate event) within several hundred bits; many of these false alarms for our technique is on the order several years.

Lorden, G.↗

Variability in the power spectrum of solar five-minute oscillations

It is noted that two-dimensional power spectra of solar five-minute oscillations exhibit prominent ridge structures in (k, omega) space, k being the horizontal wavenumber and omega the temporal frequency. The positions of these ridges in k and omega can be used in probing temperature and velocity structures in the subphotosphere. The progress made in a program to establish whether power spectra taken on separate days show shifts in ridge locations is surveyed, noting that these may arise from different velocity and temperature patterns having been brought into the sampling region by solar rotation. Power spectra are obtained for six days of observations of Doppler velocities using the Mg I 5173 A and Fe I 5434 A spectral lines. Each data set encompasses 8 to 11 hr in time and samples a region 256 x 1024 arcsec in spatial extent, with a spatial resolution of 2 arcsec and temporal sampling of 65 s. Statistically significant shifts are detected in ridge locations between certain data sets. When analyzed in terms of eastward and westward propagating waves, the character of these displacements is seen as implying that changes have occurred in both temperature and horizontal velocity fields underlying the observing window. The velocity changes are estimated to be of the order of 100 m/s.

Hill, F.↗

Verification of the accuracy of GEM-L2 in response to criticism by Lambeck and Coleman

The objective was to evaluate the accuracy of the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-L2 and its improvement in estimating Lageos orbits in order to provide better baselines for plate tectonics, improved polar motion and Earth rotation. Analyses and comparisons with other models are made to verify accuracy in contrast to the Lambeck and Coleman result which denied the authors' accuracy estimates. The analysis presented completely verifies the accuracy of the GEM-L2 model and disproves the statistical methods of Lambeck and Coleman rejecting the accuracy of GEM-L2 as published in their report. The baselines derived from Lageos with GEM-L2 were estimated to have a 2 cm uncertainty due to the errors in the GEM-L2 gravity model which is supported by the results given. The calibration tests indicate that the errors in GEM-L2 should be reduced by about 30 percent which is in the opposite direction to the result obtained by Lambeck and Coleman.

Lerch, F. J.↗

Node synchronization for the Viterbi decoder

At very low signal to noise ratios such as those that Voyager 2 will encounter at Uranus, the performance of the Reed-Solomon/Viterbi concatenated coding system could be seriously degraded by loss of node synchronization by the Viterbi decoder. This problem is described and now it can be almost completely avoided with a simple outboard hardware 'node synchronizer'. This device makes statistical decisions about node sync based on the hard quantized undecoded data stream. In a worst case Voyager-like environment, our method will detect and correct a true loss of node sync (thought to be a very rare event) within several hundred bits; many of these false alarms for our technique is on the order several years. Previously announced in STAR as N83-28028

Lorden, G.↗

Selection of extended area land target sites for the calibration of spaceborne scatterometers

In order to understand what areas can be used for spaceborne scatterometer calibration and to aid in the design of future land radar systems, the Seasat-1 Scatterometer System (SASS) data on the backscattering coefficient sigma0 have been studied. Global images of land and ice backscatter are presented and compared to the terrain type. The global statistics of sigma0 for incidence angles between 0 and 70 deg are presented and compared with the Skylab and ground spectrometer results. The brightest land regions are the rain forests. For two such regions, the Amazon Basin and the Congo Basin, detailed images and the variation of sigma0 with polarization, angle of incidence, and terrain type are presented. For comparison, a highly nonhomogeneous region, part of the Sahara desert, is studied.

Kennett, R. G.↗