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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2025

Limitations and Feasibility of Mini X-Ray Devices in Space Environments

LIMITATIONS AND FEASIBILITY OF MINI X-RAY DEVICES IN SPACE ENVIRONMENTS As space exploration advances toward long-duration missions, reliable medical diagnostic tools become increasingly critical. The miniature x-ray (XR) technology demonstrations by the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) and the Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) aim to assess the feasibility and utility of miniature XR devices in spaceflight. This abstract explores the limitations of current miniature XR systems, the challenges of training crew members, the potential role of clinical decision support systems (CDSS), and the feasibility of ground-based image interpretation. We also propose the integration of miniature XR into other ExMC efforts aimed at identifying the capabilities and resources needed for future exploration class missions. One of the primary challenges with miniature XR devices is the ability to achieve specific anatomical views, particularly in the confined and weightless conditions of a spacecraft. Operators may struggle to acquire diagnostic-quality images when space is limited for proper patient positioning and the volume of the imaging device. Since space radiation and detector limitations may further impact image quality, the flexibility of the operating procedures of these devices will be critical for their success in space applications. CHALLENGES IN TRAINING CREW TO OPERATE IMAGING DEVICES Training in the skills necessary to acquire diagnostic-quality scans may be a barrier for non-clinician crewmembers. The curriculum developed for crew medical officers (CMOs) will require simplification and adaptation to fit into the highly truncated pre-flight training period. Therefore, hands-on familiarization and simulation, both pre-flight and just-in-time training during missions, will be crucial to ensuring the crew can operate the devices in real-life situations. The ability to adjust acquisition parameters must be simplified or made automatic through exam selections on equipment user interfaces, and subject and operator positioning should be assisted with laser guidance and pictorial guides. POTENTIAL FOR CDSS OR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)-ASSISTED CDSS CDSS and AI-assisted CDSS offer significant promise in assisting crew members with limited medical training. These systems could provide real-time feedback on image quality and interpretation, helping to mitigate the risks of human error during space missions. Integrating procedural guidance tools, such as virtual and augmented reality, will support crewmembers in accurately positioning patients and obtaining high-quality images. However, the success of such systems will depend on the development of robust training datasets, integration with spaceflight-rated hardware, and the medical decision-making capabilities of operators. FEASIBILITY OF GROUND INTERPRETATION AND DATA TRANSMISSION Reliance on ground-based interpretation may prove difficult for acute care during exploration class-missions due to delays in transmission with increasing distance from Earth or complete communication blackout periods. In such instances where immediate interpretation for clinical intervention is required, crew must be able to interpret the images independently or utilize AI-based assistance to do so. File sizes for XR exams can also be large if numerous images are acquired and bandwidth constraints may limit data transmissions for both radiography and ultrasound exams. FUTURE WORK AND INTEGRATION INTO THE EVIDENCE LIBRARY Future work proposes integrating miniature XR devices into NASA’s Evidence Library to address medical conditions identified as significant contributors to crew morbidity and mortality. The possibility of combining miniature XR with other imaging modalities, such as ultrasound devices, is also under investigation. In conclusion, while miniature XR technology holds potential for extraterrestrial medical systems, there are significant challenges to overcome. Training, integration of AI tools, dedicated exam protocols for microgravity, and improved data transmission systems will be key to realizing the full benefits of miniature XR technology in space.

A M Nelson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reliability Growth Modeling and Testing

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Reliability Growth

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling↗
NASA NTRS2024

Combining Large Datasets - Cancer Moonshot Task Group Final Summary

In February 2022, President Biden re-ignited the Cancer Moonshot with bold new goals: to reduce the cancer death rate by half within 25 years and improve the lives of people with cancer and cancer survivors. To achieve these ambitious goals, the White House convened the first-ever Cancer Cabinet, bringing together departments and agencies from across the federal government to end cancer as we know it.The Cancer Cabinet convened three task forces and supporting task groups, including the Data and Innovation Task Force, which supported the Cancer Moonshot priority to “Deliver innovation to patients and communities.” In early 2023, the “Combining Large Datasets” (CoLD) Task Group was created within the Data and Innovation Task Force. The scope of the CoLD Task Group was how federal agencies combine large datasets for broad applications across cancer prevention and control, including nutrition, epidemiology, and military/Veteran health. Within this scope, the group sought to better leverage the immense potential of data and power of data tools to increase our understanding of cancer incidence, causes, mortality, treatments, prevention, outcomes, costs, and all other aspects of the burden of cancer.

data integration↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Long-Term Health Risk Quantification

Astronauts face hazards during spaceflight, including space radiation exposure, isolation and confinement, traveling far distances from Earth, reduced gravity levels, and closed and hostile environments. These hazards drive the definition of human health and performance risks associated with spaceflight. NASA’s Human System Risk Board maintains the human spaceflight risk posture for in-mission risks, as well as post-flight, Long-Term Health (LTH)risks potentially occurring later in the astronaut’s life. LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. Possible LTH risk outcomes include the time and interventions needed for the astronaut to return to preflight physiological states after experiencing spaceflight hazards and recovery from any in-mission medical events that persist into the post-flight timeframe. It includes chronic complications that may arise due to experiencing in-flight medical conditions or injuries and medical conditions that occur later in life with a higher probability of occurrence or with more severity because of their spaceflight exposure. Finally, LTH risk outcomes can also include a reduction in life expectancy due to spaceflight exposures. There have been 144 medical conditions identified by NASA’s Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health team to be associated with LTH risk. Epidemiological studies have been performed for some of these conditions to determine if astronauts suffer from an increased prevalence or severity of the condition due to their spaceflight experience compared to a comparable cohort .Differences in astronaut mortality or morbidity due to spaceflight experience were not detected in several of these studies. There were two cases where a modest increase in the incidence rate of astronaut LTH outcomes was detected. The first suggested an increase in the incidence of melanoma cases in astronauts, where the number of cases in astronauts were similar to the elevated number of cases observed in airplane pilots. The second provided some evidence of elevated numbers of cardiovascular disease events in astronauts compared to an appropriate healthy comparator cohort, which may warrant additional investigation. The lack of detection of LTH risk outcomes should not ease concerns about astronaut LTH. The studies highlighted here constitute only a small portion of the potential LTH conditions that could occur. Once epidemiological studies are performed on all conditions, significant findings may be detected. The analysis of astronaut LTH also suffers from limited numbers of data points because of the limited numbers of astronauts overall and the even fewer who have reached an age where LTH outcomes may begin to manifest. As shuttle and ISS astronauts begin to age and increase the feasibility of analysis, LTH outcomes may be detected. An application of risk quantification is the use of risk metrics within trade studies for resource prioritization and decision making. Trade studies regarding countermeasures to LTH risk outcomes would benefit from a quantification of LTH risk. NASA has ground-based processes in place such as astronaut screening and access to continuous medical monitoring and care during and after their astronaut career which are the main methods for mitigating LTH risk. In-mission countermeasures, such as acceptable levels of medical care and available countermeasures to counter spaceflight related physiological decrements, can mitigate a poor health and performance status immediately post-flight. Identifying appropriate risk metrics, obtaining valid quantities for them, and tying them to LTH countermeasures are necessary steps for realizing their use in trade studies. This presentation will highlight the challenges associated with the identification, quantification, and utilization of LTH risk metrics

Beth Lewandowski↗
NASA NTRS2025

Potential Health Impacts, Treatments, and Countermeasures of Martian Dust on Future Human Space Exploration

The challenges of human space exploration produce some of humanity’s greatest technological and scientific advances, not excluding innovations in medicine. The microgravity environment causes a whole host of physiological changes, and exposure to dust on the Moon caused considerable pulmonary distress to astronauts during the Apollo missions. As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)and other space organizations prepare for long duration exploration missions to Mars, the hazards and consequences of the Martian surface need to be accounted for. This review investigates how substances analogous to the hazardous components of Martian dust have caused disease in people on Earth. Because of the small grain size of Martian dust, dust on Mars is more likely to cause lung irritation, absorb into the bloodstream, and lead to diseases in astronauts. Toxic components of Martian dust to astronaut health include perchlorates, silica, nanophase iron oxides, and gypsum in addition to trace amounts of toxic metals whose abundances are debated: chromium, beryllium, arsenic, and cadmium. Predicted effects of dust exposure ranges from asymptomatic to life threatening, with many substances being carcinogenic and most damage impacting the pulmonary system. The longer transit time for astronauts to return home makes the operations of performing emergency medical treatment more difficult and increases both the likelihood and consequences of developing chronic disease. Exposure mitigation needs to be prioritized; however, supplements may be taken to prevent disease from breakthrough exposures and treatment regimens could lessen morbidity and mortality. Treatments and equipment need to be carefully thought out and transported with the astronauts to be prepared for all possible scenarios.

Justin L Wang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-coding RNAs linked to immortality and associated methods and compositions

Aspects of the present disclosure include RNAs that confer a mortal phenotype and nucleic acids encoding same. Liposomes, recombinant cells, and pharmaceutical compositions that include the RNAs or nucleic acids encoding same are also provided. Further provided are methods involving quantifying MORT RNAs and/or determining the methylation status of the MORT promoter, as well as methods that employ the RNAs or nucleic acids encoding same.

Stampfer, Martha R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian State-Space Modeling Framework for Understanding and Predicting Golden Eagle Movements Using Telemetry Data

Predicting raptor movements through a wind power plant under given atmospheric and topographical conditions is a crucial first step in the overall goal of quantifying the risk of turbine-related collisions and mortalities. Extracting behavioral traits of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from telemetry data requires the fusion of noisy and sparse movement data (location, heading, velocity) with a stochastic mathematical representation of the eagles' decision-making processes. In this study, we framed this problem in a Bayesian state-space framework where both observations and decision-making are assumed to be stochastic processes connected through hidden states (mode of flight, intent), and the unknown model parameters are assumed to be random variables that are calibrated using the available telemetry data. This framework allowed for rigorous consideration of underlying uncertainties while allowing for both data and prior biological knowledge to contribute to a probabilistic and predictive agent-based movement model. We implemented and applied the Bayesian framework to understand movement behavior of 23 GPS-tagged golden eagles travelling in the western US for years 2019 and 2020. Our preliminary findings show that the Bayesian state-space framework provides a robust inverse modeling apparatus to decode eagle behavioral characteristics from telemetry data. This study was primarily aimed at verifying and validating the framework with selected golden eagle tracks (both long- and short-ranged), with future research aimed at extending the framework to include multi-mode flight, consideration of atmospheric data and uplift mechanisms, eagle-to-eagle interaction, and eagle-to-turbine interaction.

Bayesian modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Accelerated Stress Testing Data for Silicon Photovoltaics Using Tensor Decomposition Methods

The photovoltaic (PV) industry is simultaneously targeting long warranties and new materials/designs for high-energy-yield modules, requiring an advanced methodology to forecast long-term durability of products with un-proven materials combinations. Extended, sequential, and combined stress testing methods are gaining popularity for assessing durability of PV modules/materials beyond the early-stage mortalities. Importantly, multiple degradation mechanisms can proceed simultaneously, and their separate contributions to the overall power loss should ideally be quantified. This work examines the use of data-driven tools towards developing a strategy for faster learning cycles in accelerated stress testing.

accelerated stress testing↗
DOE OSTI2024

1. Physical Security Engineering by Design for Nuclear Facilities; 2. Nuclear Power Plant Site Security Management – A Security Strategy; 3. The UAE Women in Nuclear Energy Security

1. Security by design, or SeBD, is a comprehensive approach that integrates the physical protection system of a nuclear plant into every stage of its existence. This includes planning, designing, constructing, commissioning, and operating the facility, using a combination of analytical, physical, technological, and procedural measures. Essentially, SeBD involves intentionally applying and incorporating security into all aspects of design and operation throughout the entire lifecycle of a facility. By implementing this methodology throughout various phases such as program development, process implementation, staff training and procedures management in conjunction with plant equipment, facilities can be optimized to minimize security risks without compromising functional design requirements. This ultimately improves the overall security posture of the site and reduces the need for costly modifications or additional security resources post-design. 2. A site security strategy is a living document that is revised on a periodic or event-driven basis, ensuring that site security operations and corresponding procedures provide long-term, effective protection for the entire nuclear power plant (NPP) site. A site security strategy aims to mitigate threats across the entire NPP site via in-depth defense approaches and mutual support; therefore, if a layer is omitted or altered, then the effect across all layers must be re-evaluated. Therefore, the aim of the site security strategy is to provide an appropriate, scalable security regime that deters, denies, delays, and detects incidents and, equally importantly, reassures legitimate users and the regulator that due diligence and regulatory compliance have been achieved, ensuring that the site is safe and secure. Robust access control for vehicles and pedestrians is at the heart of the strategy. Vehicle and pedestrian searching and screening are seen as the strongest mitigation methods against vehicle- and pedestrian-borne attacks. The security strategy must also be supported through comprehensive staff training and the development of robust processes, procedures, and planning. If all these measures are to be effective, then training must be implemented during each phase of construction, partial operation/commissioning, and full operation. No single element of site security is completely isolated from the influence of other elements. Ideally, consideration of all key elements will result in a security strategy that is integrated and proportional to the threat and that does not over specify individual security solutions through the application of isolated measures but rather applies a holistic, all-encompassing approach. 3. When women enter the labor force, numerous positive outcomes emerge, including increased GDP, educational gains, and decreased maternal mortality. Despite these benefits, women's employment rates and equality vary significantly worldwide as does support for women in the workforce. This paper will explore the multifaceted benefits of women's employment, the factors influencing labor force participation rates, and the urgency to achieve gender equality as outlined in the 2015 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It will then examine the emerging presence of women in the traditionally male-dominated nuclear field, specifically within the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a testament to their resilience and determination to break social norms and advance gender equality.

Zineddin, Dr. Z.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating technology development to monitor and minimize effects from land‐based wind energy on birds and bats

While wind energy is a key sector of domestic energy production for the United States, operation of wind turbines directly and indirectly adversely affects certain species of birds and bats. The cumulative effect of wind turbine strikes can have both biological and regulatory consequences, and, in some cases, delay permitting and construction or affect ongoing operations. Technology can help quantify and minimize these effects, but the pace of development, acceptance, and adoption of technological solutions is slow. Although adopting cost‐effective technologies may reduce negative effects on wildlife and help achieve both energy production and conservation goals, consensus is lacking among developers, regulators, and the conservation community regarding how to define technology effectiveness and acceptance and how to develop a standardized process for doing so. Removing barriers to technology advancement requires deviating from the status quo. Changes include 1) creating incentives to mitigate impacts, 2) establishing options for research as mitigation, 3) rethinking how research is funded, 4) increasing stakeholder coordination, and 5) increasing the efficiency of research and development. We recommend the creation of a national framework to establish clear criteria and protocols for technology evaluation and adoption.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development

The opioid crisis remains one of the greatest public health challenges in the United States. The crisis is complex, with long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects, which creates a risk of unintended consequences and complicates policy decision-making. We present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), an operationally detailed national-level model of the opioid crisis, intended to enhance understanding of the crisis and guide policy decisions. Drawing on multiple data sources, SOURCE replicates how risks of opioid misuse initiation and overdose have evolved over time in response to behavioral and other changes and suggests how those risks may evolve in the future, providing a basis for projecting and analyzing potential policy impacts and solutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Congenital Malformations and Perinatal Deaths Among the Children of Atomic Bomb Survivors: A Reappraisal

From 1948 to 1954, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission conducted a study of pregnancy outcomes among births to atomic bomb survivors (Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan) who had received radiation doses ranging from 0 Gy to near-lethal levels. Past reports (1956, 1981, and 1990) on the cohort did not identify significant associations of radiation exposure with untoward pregnancy outcomes, such as major congenital malformations, stillbirths, or neonatal deaths, individually or in aggregate. We reexamined the risk of major congenital malformations and perinatal deaths in the children of atomic bomb survivors (n = 71,603) using fully reconstructed data to minimize the potential for bias, using refined estimates of the gonadal dose from Dosimetry System 2002 and refined analytical methods for characterizing dose-response relationships. The analyses showed that parental exposure to radiation was associated with increased risk of major congenital malformations and perinatal death, but the estimates were imprecise for direct radiation effects, and most were not statistically significant. Nonetheless, the uniformly positive estimates for untoward pregnancy outcomes among children of both maternal and paternal survivors are useful for risk assessment purposes, although extending them to populations other than the atomic bomb survivors comes with uncertainty as to generalizability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How some tropical trees benefit from being struck by lightning: evidence for Dipteryx oleifera and other large‐statured trees

Lightning strikes kill hundreds of millions of trees annually, but their role in shaping tree life history and diversity is largely unknown. Here, in this study, we use data from a unique lightning location system to show that some individual trees counterintuitively benefit from being struck by lightning. Lightning killed 56% of 93 directly struck trees and caused an average of 41% crown dieback among the survivors. However, among these struck trees, 10 direct strikes caused negligible damage to Dipteryx oleifera trees while killing 78% of their lianas and 2.1 Mg of competitor tree biomass. Nine trees of other long-lived taxa survived lightning with similar benefits. On average, a D. oleifera tree > 60 cm in diameter is struck by lightning at least five times during its lifetime, conferring these benefits repeatedly. We estimate that the ability to survive lightning increases lifetime fecundity 14-fold, largely because of reduced competition from lianas and neighboring trees. Moreover, the unusual heights and wide crowns of D. oleifera increase the probability of a direct strike by 49–68% relative to trees of the same diameter with average allometries. These patterns suggest that lightning plays an underappreciated role in tree competition, life history strategies, and species coexistence.

competition↗
DOE OSTI2021

Foliar respiration is related to photosynthetic, growth and carbohydrate response to experimental drought and elevated temperature

Short-term plant respiration (R) increases exponentially with rising temperature, but drought could reduce respiration by reducing growth and metabolism. Acclimation may alter these responses. We examined if species with different drought responses would differ in foliar R response to +4.8°C temperature and -45% precipitation in a field experiment with mature piñon and juniper trees, and if any differences between species were related to differences in photosynthesis rates, shoot growth and non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs). Short-term foliar R had a Q 10 of 1.6 for piñon and 2.6 for juniper. Piñon foliar R did not respond to the +4.8°C temperatures, but R increased 1.4x for juniper. Across treatments, piñon foliage had higher growth, lower NSC content, 29% lower photosynthesis rates, and 44% lower R than juniper. Removing 45% precipitation had little impact on R for either species. Species differences in the response of R under elevated temperature were related to substrate availability and stomatal response to leaf water potential. Despite not acclimating to the higher temperature and having higher R than piñon, greater substrate availability in juniper suggests it could supply respiratory demand for much longer than piñon. Species responses will be critical in ecosystem response to a warmer climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data from: "Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers"

This archive contains data used to draw conclusions in “Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Cone collection and field experiments were conducted on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, with the latter completed within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE). Laboratory germination experiments were conducted at the University of California Merced. Geospatial files are also provided for additional geographical context.There are four data file formats in this package: comma-separated values (.csv), Microsoft Excel (.xlsx), keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefile (.shp). The latter two are geospatial file formats. .csv files can be opened using any simple text editor program such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows), and .xlsx files can be opened using Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets. The .kml file contains coordinate data, and is compatible with Google Earth and Google Maps. ESRI shapefiles (.shp) are compatible with any geospatial software able to read the file type, such as QGIS and ESRI’s ArcGIS Suite. This data user’s guide is available in as a .pdf, and can be opened using software such as Adobe Acrobat Reader.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. We tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We tracked germination rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Together these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗