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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Open-source microreactor design models for technoeconomic assessments

Technoeconomic analyses for advanced nuclear technologies are essential for identifying cost drivers which allow for optimizing the technology to achieve better economic performance. Microreactors are emerging as a promising and reliable-energy solution, offering inherent safety, low capital investment, and rapid deployment capabilities. Past studies have conducted technoeconomic analyses for microreactors, but there remains a need for open-source technoeconomic models that can enhance collaboration, transparency, and consistency when performing this type of analysis. The present article introduces an open-source technoeconomic model for microreactors based on bottom-up cost estimation. Since no real cost data for microreactors exists, this model leverages cost data and insights gleaned from the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) project. It estimates the first-of-a-kind cost of two microreactor technologies and can also calculate the N th of a kind (NOAK) cost via accounting for learning and mass factory production. The two technologies considered in this paper are the liquid–metal thermal reactor (LTMR) and the gas-cooled microreactor (GCMR). In conclusion, the goal of this study is to demonstrate bottom-up cost estimation of these microreactor technologies and provide the cost estimation models that other users can leverage for various applications such as design optimization and financial planning.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictability and empirical dynamics of fisheries time series in the North Pacific

Previous studies have documented a strong relationship between marine ecosystems and large-scale modes of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. In the central and western North Pacific along the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), the expression of these modes in SSH and SST is linked to the propagation of long oceanic Rossby waves, which extend the predictability of the climate system to ~3 years. Using a multivariate physical-biological linear inverse model (LIM) we explore the extent to which this physical predictability leads to multi-year prediction of dominant fishery indicators inferred from three datasets (i.e., estimated biomasses, landings, and catches). We find that despite the strong autocorrelation in the fish indicators, the LIM adds dynamical forecast skill beyond persistence up to 5-6 years. By performing a sensitivity analysis of the LIM forecast model, we find that two main factors are essential for extending the dynamical predictability of the fishery indicators beyond persistence. The first is the interaction of the fishery indicators with the SST/SSH of the North and tropical Pacific. The second is the empirical relationship among the fisheries time series. This latter component reflects stock-stock interactions as well as common technological and human socioeconomic factors that may influence multiple fisheries and are captured in the training of the LIM. These results suggest that empirical dynamical models and machine learning algorithms, such as the LIM, provide an alternative and promising approach for forecasting key ecological indicators beyond the skill of persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Development and analysis of the learjet 54/55 fuselage NASTRAN model using substructure techniques

Development and analysis of the Learjet 54/55 fuselage NASTRAN model is presented. This structure was broken down into several substructures to make the modeling and analysis effort more manageable. Since the geometry was fairly complex in some areas and in order to provide flexibility for future configuration studies, a series of local coordinate systems were used to describe the model. This work was accomplished using several different computer systems, the more recent of which were connected by a high speed data communications lines to perform the tasks of model generation and NASTRAN analysis.

Boroughs, R. R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nonlinear Ensemble Filtering with Diffusion Models: Application to the Surface Quasigeostrophic Dynamics

The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here, we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to formulate a robust nonlinear ensemble filter for sequential data assimilation. Unlike standard machine learning methods, the proposed ensemble score filter (EnSF) is completely training free and can efficiently generate a set of analysis ensemble members. Here, in this study, we apply the EnSF to a surface quasigeostrophic model and compare its performance against the popular local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which makes Gaussian assumptions in the analysis step. Numerical tests demonstrate that EnSF maintains stable performance in the absence of localization and for a variety of experimental settings. We find that while LETKF maintains optimal performance in the case of linear observations of the entire state and a perfect model, EnSF shows improvements over LETKF when nonlinear observations are assimilated and the system is subject to unexpected model errors. A spectral decomposition of the analysis results in this nonlinear observation regime shows that the largest improvements over LETKF occur at large scales (small wavenumbers), where LETKF lacks sufficient ensemble spread. Overall, this initial application of EnSF to a geophysical model of intermediate complexity motivates further development of the algorithm for more realistic problems.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using a Stochastic Interaction Graph with Eigen-analysis

In studies on complex network systems using graph theory, eigen-analysis is typically performed on an undirected graph model of the network. However, when analyzing cascading failures in a power system, the interactions among failures suggest the need for a directed graph beyond the topology of the power system to model directions of failure propagation. To accurately quantify failure interactions for effective mitigation strategies, this paper proposes a stochastic interaction graph model and associated eigen-analysis. Different types of modes on failure propagations are defined and characterized by the eigenvalues of a stochastic interaction matrix, whose absolute values are unity, zero, or in between. Finding and interpreting these modes helps identify the probable patterns of failure propagation, either local or widespread, and the participating components based on eigenvectors. Then, by lowering the failure probabilities of critical components highly participating in a mode of widespread failures, cascading can be mitigated. Here, the validity of the proposed stochastic interaction graph model, eigen-analysis and the resulting mitigation strategies is demonstrated using simulated cascading failure data on an NPCC 140-bus system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Leaf Chlorophyll Concentration of Sorghum from Hyperspectral Data Using Derivative Calculus and Machine Learning

Leaf chlorophyll concentration (LCC) is an important indicator of plant health, vigor, physiological status, productivity, and nutrient deficiencies. Hyperspectral spectroscopy at leaf level has been widely used to estimate LCC accurately and non-destructively. This study utilized leaf-level hyperspectral data with derivative calculus and machine learning to estimate LCC of sorghum. We calculated fractional derivative (FD) orders starting from 0.2 to 2.0 with 0.2 order increments. Additionally, 43 common vegetation indices (VIs) were calculated from leaf spectral reflectance factor to make comparisons with reflectance-based data. Within the modeling pipeline, three feature selection methods were assessed: Pearson’s correlation coefficient (PCC), partial least squares based variable importance in the projection (VIP), and random forest-based mean decrease impurity (MDI). Finally, we used partial least squares regression (PLSR), random forest regression (RFR), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme learning regression (ELR) to estimate the LCC of sorghum. Results showed that: (1) increasing derivative order can show improved model performance until certain order for reflectance-based analysis; however, it is inconclusive to state that a particular order is optimal for estimating LCC of sorghum; (2) VI-based modeling outperformed derivative augmented reflectance factor-based modeling; (3) mean decrease impurity was found effective in selecting sensitive features from large feature space (reflectance-based analysis), whereas simple Pearson’s correlation coefficient worked better with smaller feature space (VI-based analysis); and (4) SVR outperformed all other models within reflectance-based analysis; alternatively, ELR with VIs from original reflectance yielded slightly better results compared to all other models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1993

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗
NASA NTRS1985

Direct Transient Analysis of a Fuze Assembly by Axisymmetric Solid Elements

A fuze assembly, which consists of three major parts, nose, collar and sleeve, was designed to survive severe transverse impact giving a maximum base acceleration of 20.000 G. It is shown that hoop failure occurred in the collar after the impact. They also showed that by bonding the collar to the nose, the collar was able to survive the same impact. To find out the effectiveness of the bonding quantitatively, axisymmetric solid elements TRAPAX and TRIAAX were used in modelling the fuze and direct transient analysis was performed. The dynamic stresses in selected elements on the bonded and unbonded collars were compared. The peak hoop stresses in the unbonded collar were found to be up to three times higher than those in the bonded collar. The NASTRAN results explained the observed hoop failure in the unbonded collar. In addition, static and eigenvalue runs were performed as checks on the models prior to the transient runs. The use of the MPCAX cards and the existence and contributors of the calculated first several nearly identical natural frequencies are addressed.

Dai, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

International Space Station 2A Array Modal Analysis

On December 9th 2009, the International Space Station (ISS) 2A solar array mast experienced prolonged longeron shadowing during a Soyuz undocking. Analytical reconstruction of induced thermal and dynamic structural loads showed an exceedance of the mast buckling limit. Possible structural damage to the solar array mast could have occurred during this event. A Low fidelity video survey of the 2A mast showed no obvious damage of the mast longerons or battens. The decision was made to conduct an on-orbit dynamic test of the 2A array on December 18th, 2009. The test included thruster pluming on the array while photogrammetry data was recorded. The test was similar to other Dedicated Thruster Firings (DTFs) that were performed to measure structural frequency and damping of a solar array. Results of the DTF indicated lower frequency mast modes than model predictions, thus leading to speculation of mast damage. A detailed nonlinear analysis was performed on the 2A array model to assess possible solutions to modal differences. The setup of the parametric nonlinear trade study included the use of a detailed array model and the reduced mass and stiffness matrices of the entire ISS being applied to the array interface. The study revealed that the array attachment structure is nonlinear and thus was the source of error in the model prediction of mast modes. In addition, a detailed study was performed to determine mast mode sensitivity to mast longeron damage. This sensitivity study was performed to assess if the ISS program has sufficient instrumentation for mast damage detection.

Laible, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1986

COFS 1: Beam dynamics and control technology overview

The Control of Flexible Structures (COFS) 1 Project provides the invaluable opportunity to test, validate, and measure the effectiveness of theories, structural concepts, control systems, and flight certification processes for future missions through a research program focusing on multiple issues in large flexible structures, dynamics, and controls. The COFS 1 Project consists of a series of ground and flight activities building progressively from modeling and dynamic characterization of large space systems to the more complex issues of flexible-body control. The program objectives are to: determine the degree to which theory and ground testing can predict flight performance of next-generation low-frequency structures; evaluate structural fidelity of representative next-generation large deployable precision structure; assess math modeling requirements for large lightweight complex systems on which ground test results are questionable; determine degree to which scale model analysis and tests can be correlated to full-scale performance; evaluate system identification and state estimation algorithms on complex lightweight structures in the space environment; evaluate and verify controls/structures modeling capability; evaluate control laws and control systems; and evaluate damping effects in micro-g environment.

Allen, John L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Operational Experiences in Planning and Reconstructing Aqua Inclination Maneuvers

As the lead satellite in NASA's growing Earth Observing System (EOS) PM constellation, it is increasingly critical that Aqua maintain its various orbit requirements. The two of interest for this paper are maintaining an orbit inclination that provides for a consistent mean local time and a semi-major Axis (SMA) that allows for ground track repeatability. Maneuvers to adjust the orbit inclination involve several flight dynamics constraints and complexities which make planning such maneuvers challenging. In particular, coupling between the orbital and attitude degrees of freedom lead to changes in SMA when changes in inclination are effected. A long term mission mean local time trend analysis was performed in order to determine the size and placement of the required inclination maneuvers. Following this analysis, detailed modeling of each burn and its Various segments was performed to determine its effects on the immediate orbit state. Data gathered from an inclination slew test of the spacecraft and first inclination maneuver uncovered discrepancies in the modeling method that were investigated and resolved. The new modeling techniques were applied and validated during the second spacecraft inclination maneuver. These improvements should position Aqua to successfully complete a series of inclination maneuvers in the fall of 2004. The following paper presents the events and results related

Rand, David↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review: 2.1.0.100 - Biochemical Platform Analysis

The objective of this project is to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) to guide Biochemical Platform efforts, utilizing models for purposes of setting future R&D targets and tracking performance progress against those targets. Outcomes of our work are leveraged by BETO to guide program plans, as well as by other NREL/partner projects to quantify the impact of research on key technology barriers and to prioritize future efforts. This project provides high impact and relevance through establishing “bottom-up” TEA models as a basis for understanding the technical feasibility to meet “top-down” BETO cost targets. By providing a framework to translate technical performance to cost reductions in a biorefinery, our TEA models may be leveraged to maximize the efficiency of research funding towards the most economically impactful priorities, ultimately in support of BETO’s 2030 fuel cost targets below $2.5/GGE. In order to mitigate a key risk/challenge to this project in overly-constraining our analyses to a singular technology focus or TEA metric, our approach continuously re-assesses opportunities for better optimization and alternative technology pathway options, while maintaining close interaction with other BETO analysis partners. We have made numerous recent accomplishments rooted around identifying and working with the researchers to solve key technical and TEA/LCA challenges, reflected through notable improvements in State-of-Technology (SOT) updates over prior benchmarks.

biochemical↗
DOE OSTI2024

GDSA Repository Systems Analysis Investigations in FY 2024

The Disposal Research and Development (R&D) Program of the US Department of Energy (DOE) office of Nuclear Energy (NE-8) Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign is to conduct R&D on disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste (HLW). The goal of the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) within this project is to develop a disposal system modeling and analysis capability that supports the integrated modeling of coupled processes controlling disposal system performance of deep geologic repositories, including uncertainty. This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 associated with the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package. The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and repository system performance models in crystalline, argillite, salt, and unsaturated alluvium potential host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using GDSA Framework toolkit, and other tools as needed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1992

SSME improved characterization using highly instrumented engine test data

This paper discusses the analysis of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) 3001 test data and its applications to steady-state models. Engine 3001 is a highly instrumented Phase II (current configuration) SSME that was tested at the Technology Test Bed facility located at Marshall Space Flight Center. A test series covering a carefully selected range of operating conditions was performed during 1991. An analysis of pressure, temperature and flowrate data was performed to evaluate the ability of steady-state models to accurately characterize the internal system of an SSME. Much of the special instrumentation was used to acquire data never before measured at the engine level prior to Engine 3001 testing. The analysis revealed that modifications are needed to improve model calculations of internal Hydrogen and Oxygen flows. Modifying steady-state models to more accurately simulate the internal flow system of an SSME should improve both engine performance evaluations and prediction capabilities.

Piekarski, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2017

Version 3 of the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture Product

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides 3-hourly, 9-km resolution, global estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture as well as related land surface states and fluxes from 31 March 2015 to present with a latency of 2.5 days. The ensemble-based L4_SM algorithm is a variant of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) land data assimilation system and ingests SMAP L-band (1.4 GHz) Level 1 brightness temperature observations into the Catchment land surface model. The soil moisture analysis is non-local (spatially distributed), performs downscaling from the 36-km resolution of the observations to that of the model, and respects the relative uncertainties of the modeled and observed brightness temperatures. Prior to assimilation, a climatological rescaling is applied to the assimilated brightness temperatures using a 6 year record of SMOS observations. A new feature in Version 3 of the L4_SM data product is the use of 2 years of SMAP observations for rescaling where SMOS observations are not available because of radio frequency interference, which expands the impact of SMAP observations on the L4_SM estimates into large regions of northern Africa and Asia. This presentation investigates the performance and data assimilation diagnostics of the Version 3 L4_SM data product. The L4_SM soil moisture estimates meet the 0.04 m3m3 (unbiased) RMSE requirement. We further demonstrate that there is little bias in the soil moisture analysis. Finally, we illustrate where the assimilation system overestimates or underestimates the actual errors in the system.

GEOS-↗
NASA NTRS1993

CAD-based stand-alone spacecraft radiation exposure analysis system: An application of the early man-tended Space Station

Major improvements have been completed in the approach to analyses and simulation of spacecraft radiation shielding and exposure. A computer-aided design (CAD)-based system has been developed for determining the amount of shielding provided by a spacecraft and simulating transmission of an incident radiation environment to any point within or external to the vehicle. Shielding analysis is performed using a customized ray-tracing subroutine contained within a standard engineering modeling software package. This improved shielding analysis technique has been used in several vehicle design programs such as a Mars transfer habitat, pressurized lunar rover, and the redesigned international Space Station. Results of analysis performed for the Space Station astronaut exposure assessment are provided to demonastrate the applicability and versatility of the system.

Appleby, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Rotor design optimization using a free wake analysis

The aim of this effort was to develop a comprehensive performance optimization capability for tiltrotor and helicopter blades. The analysis incorporates the validated EHPIC (Evaluation of Hover Performance using Influence Coefficients) model of helicopter rotor aerodynamics within a general linear/quadratic programming algorithm that allows optimization using a variety of objective functions involving the performance. The resulting computer code, EHPIC/HERO (HElicopter Rotor Optimization), improves upon several features of the previous EHPIC performance model and allows optimization utilizing a wide spectrum of design variables, including twist, chord, anhedral, and sweep. The new analysis supports optimization of a variety of objective functions, including weighted measures of rotor thrust, power, and propulsive efficiency. The fundamental strength of the approach is that an efficient search for improved versions of the baseline design can be carried out while retaining the demonstrated accuracy inherent in the EHPIC free wake/vortex lattice performance analysis. Sample problems are described that demonstrate the success of this approach for several representative rotor configurations in hover and axial flight. Features that were introduced to convert earlier demonstration versions of this analysis into a generally applicable tool for researchers and designers is also discussed.

Quackenbush, Todd R.↗