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At least 973 records · Page 54
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NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2006

Characterizing diurnal and seasonal cycles in monsoon systems from TRMM and CEOP observations

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2deg x 2.5deg latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Characterizing Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles in Monsoon Systems from TRMM and CEOP Observations

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2 deg x 2.5 deg. latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Climatic consequences of observed ozone loss in the 1980s: Relevance to the greenhouse problem

Recently published findings using satellite and ground-based observations indicate a large winter and summertime decrease in the column abundance of ozone at high and middle latitudes during the last decade. Using a simple ozone depletion profile reflecting the observed decrease in ozone column abundance, Ramaswamy et al. (1992) showed that the negative radiative forcing that results from the ozone decrease between 1979 and 1990 approximately balanced the greenhouse climate forcing due to the chlorofluorocarbons emitted during the same period. Here, we extend the forcing analyses by calculating the equilibrium surface temperature response explicitly, using an updated version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research two-dimensional radiative-dynamical seasonal model. The calculated steady state responses suggest that the surface cooling due to the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere offsets about 30% of the surface warming due to greenhouse gases emitted during the same decade. The temperature offset is roughly a factor of 2 larger than the corresponding offset obtained from forcing intercomparisons. This result appears to be related to the climate feedback mechanisms operating in the model troposphere, most notably that associated with atmospheric meridional heat transport. Thus a comprehensive assessment of ozone change effects on the predicted greenhouse warming cannot be accomplished based on forcing evaluations alone. Our results also show that calculations adopting a seasonally and latitudinally dependent ozone depletion profile produce a negative forcing about 50% smaller than that calculated for the depletion profile used by Ramaswamy et al. (1992).

Molnar, G. I.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Balanced and unbalanced upper-level frontogenesis

The impacts of vertical shear in the cross-front component of the geostrophic wind, and of its implied along-front temperature gradient, on frontogenesis at upper levels were investigated using a hierarchy of three dynamical models based on the Keyser and Pecnick (1985) primitive-equation model. The three models are (in order of decreasing sophistication) the anelastic (AN), the geostrophic momentum (GM), and the quasi-geostsrophic (QG) approximations to the primitive equations. Intercomparison of the broad-scale structure of the upper-level jet-fronts as described by the AN and GM models showed close agreement. In contrast, the QG model exhibited marked differences with its AN counterpart, which became more pronounced with increased geostrophic wind.

Reeder, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Local Measurement of Tropospheric HO(x)

In March of 1992 a workshop sponsored by NASA and NSF was held at SRI International to assess the current ability to measure atmospheric OH and HO2. The measurement techniques reviewed during the workshop for detection of OH included five laser-induced fluorescence schemes, five laser-based adsorption techniques, and four non-laser methods. Six instruments or instrument concepts for HO2 detection, including chemical amplification, conversion to OH with subsequent OH detection, or direct spectroscopic detection of the HO2 were also discussed. The conclusions from the workshop identify several measurement techniques for OH and HO2 that are ready for field tests. These have the ability to measure the radicals with sufficient sensitivity and accuracy to form meaningful comparison with atmospheric model predictions. The workshop conclusions also include recommendations for informal and formal intercomparison protocols.

Crosley, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Likelihood-Based Climate Model Evaluation

Climate models are deterministic, mathematical descriptions of the physics of climate. Confidence in predictions of future climate is increased if the physics are verifiably correct. A necessary, (but not sufficient) condition is that past and present climate be simulated well. Quantify the likelihood that a (summary statistic computed from a) set of observations arises from a physical system with the characteristics captured by a model generated time series. Given a prior on models, we can go further: posterior distribution of model given observations.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2000

SHDOM

SHDOM is a general purpose, publicly available, three-dimensional atmospheric radiative transfer model. SHDOM is an explicit method, which means it solves for the whole radiation field, as distinct from Monte Carlo methods which solve for particular radiative outputs. SHDOM is particularly well suited for remote sensing applications, where it can compute outgoing radiances at many angles from a cloud field at virtually no extra cost. SHDOM is not appropriate for calculating domain average quantities for which Monte Carlo methods excel. The I3RC intercomparison offers an opportunity to explore the pros and cons of SHDOM and Monte Carlo models on some real world inhomogeneous cloud fields. Specifically, we wish to determine the computer resources required to achieve a particular accuracy for a certain number of outputs using SHDOM and Monte Carlo models. This will help guide modelers on the appropriate choice of SHDOM or Monte Carlo for their applications. To emphasize the importance of this accuracy versus CPU time tradeoff, we are submitting two SHDOM entries (low and high resolution) in the I3RC.

Evans, K. Franklin↗
NASA NTRS2004

Offline GCSS Intercomparison of Cloud-Radiation Interaction and Surface Fluxes

Simulations of deep tropical clouds by both cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single-column models (SCMs) in the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Working Group 4 (WG4; Precipitating Convective Cloud Systems), Case 2 (19-27 December 1992, TOGA-COARE IFA) have produced large differences in the mean heating and moistening rates (-1 to -5 K and -2 to 2 grams per kilogram respectively). Since the large-scale advective temperature and moisture "forcing" are prescribed for this case, a closer examination of two of the remaining external types of "forcing", namely radiative heating and air/sea hear and moisture transfer, are warranted. This paper examines the current radiation and surface flux of parameterizations used in the cloud models participating in the GCSS WG4, be executing the models "offline" for one time step (12 s) for a prescribed atmospheric state, then examining the surface and radiation fluxes from each model. The dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical fluids are provided by the GCE-derived model output for Case 2 during a period of very active deep convection (westerly wind burst). The surface and radiation fluxes produced from the models are then divided into prescribed convective, stratiform, and clear regions in order to examine the role that clouds play in the flux parameterizations. The results suggest that the differences between the models are attributed more to the surface flux parameterizations than the radiation schemes.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Report of the 1988 2-D Intercomparison Workshop, chapter 3

Several factors contribute to the errors encountered. With the exception of the line-by-line model, all of the models employ simplifying assumptions that place fundamental limits on their accuracy and range of validity. For example, all 2-D modeling groups use the diffusivity factor approximation. This approximation produces little error in tropospheric H2O and CO2 cooling rates, but can produce significant errors in CO2 and O3 cooling rates at the stratopause. All models suffer from fundamental uncertainties in shapes and strengths of spectral lines. Thermal flux algorithms being used in 2-D tracer tranport models produce cooling rates that differ by as much as 40 percent for the same input model atmosphere. Disagreements of this magnitude are important since the thermal cooling rates must be subtracted from the almost-equal solar heating rates to derive the net radiative heating rates and the 2-D model diabatic circulation. For much of the annual cycle, the net radiative heating rates are comparable in magnitude to the cooling rate differences described. Many of the models underestimate the cooling rates in the middle and lower stratosphere. The consequences of these errors for the net heating rates and the diabatic circulation will depend on their meridional structure, which was not tested here. Other models underestimate the cooling near 1 mbar. Suchs errors pose potential problems for future interactive ozone assessment studies, since they could produce artificially-high temperatures and increased O3 destruction at these levels. These concerns suggest that a great deal of work is needed to improve the performance of thermal cooling rate algorithms used in the 2-D tracer transport models.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A diagnostic stratospheric aerosol size distribution inferred from SAGE II measurements

An aerosol size distribution model for the stratosphere is inferred based on 5 years of Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II measurements of multispectral aerosol and water vapor extinction. The SAGE II aerosol and water vapor extinction data strongly suggest that there is a critical particle radius below which there is a relatively weak dependence of particle number density with size and above which there are few, if any, particles. A segmented power law model, as a simple representation of this dependence, is used in theoretical calculations and intercomparisons with a variety of aerosol measurements including dustsondes, longwave lidar, and wire impactors and shows a consistently good agreement.

Thomason, Larry W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Inter-comparison of automatic rain gauges

The Ocean Acoustics Division (OAD) of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), in cooperation with NOAA/NESDIS and NASA, has deployed six rain gauges for calibration and intercomparison purposes. These instruments include: (1) a weighing rain gauge, (2) a RM Young Model 50202 capacitance rain gauge, (3) a ScTI ORG-705 (long path) optical rain gauge, (4) a ScTI ORG-105 (mini-ORG) optical rain gauge, (5) a Belfort Model 382 tipping bucket rain gauge, and (6) a Distromet RD-69 disdrometer. The system has been running continuously since July 1993. During this time period, roughly 150 events with maximum rainfall rate over 10 mm/hr and 25 events with maximum rainfall rates over 100 mm/hr have been recorded. All rain gauge types have performed well, with intercorrelations 0.9 or higher. However, limitations for each type of rain gauge have been observed.

Nystuen, Jeffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Carbon Cycle Science Data and Services at the Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information and Services Center (GES DISC)

The Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information and Services Center (GES DISC) archives and distributes a number of observational and model carbon cycle science data sets. We also provide services that facilitate data discovery, intercomparison, and visualization of these heterogeneous datasets for both research and applications users, such as subsetting, format conversion, How-To documentation, and the Help Desk.

Hearty, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of 10‐m Wind Speed From ISD Meteorological Stations and the MERRA‐2 Reanalysis: Impacts on Dust Emission in the Arabian Peninsula

Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosols when studying the radiative balance and climate of the planet. There are different dust emission schemes utilized by the atmospheric modeling communities, many of which disagree on basic output quantities such as mass of dust emitted and distribution of mass among size bins. In this work, we examined mineral dust emission from a leading model scheme, the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), as utilized in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) Reanalysis and compared it to dust emissions calculated using wind measurements from ground based weather stations located in the Arabian Peninsula that are included in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) integrated surface database (ISD). An intercomparison of 10-m wind speed is shown for the Arabian Peninsula region, differences of the observed and modeled wind field are quantified, and impacts of differences on dust emissions are calculated. This analysis shows 10-m winds in the ISD were generally lower than MERRA-2 winds, which propagated to dust emissions errors. Our estimate of one of the most significant mass impacts in dust emission is 0.178 Tg/year/grid box with a percent change of over 200% to the recalculated dust emissions from MERRA-2. These differences in wind speed propagated to a difference in dust mass emitted by the use of a static source function which aids in scaling the mass emitted by the availability of dust in each grid. Additionally, the magnitude of these differences varies seasonally.

winds↗
NASA NTRS1997

Ice velocity at the ice front of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, as observed with ERS interferometry

ERS images of the two ends of the ice front of the Filchner-Ronne ice shelf (Antarctica) were utilized interferometrically to study the deformation rate of the ice shelf in response to viscous creep. On the western bank of Berkner Island (BI), near Hemmen Ice Rise (HIR), a time series of ERS data acquired in February 1992, in both ascending and descending mode, and with a three-day time interval, were utilized to map the ice velocity in two dimensions. Finite-element ice-shelf flow simulations are compared with the ERS interferograms to interpret the ice motion in terms of the physical constraints on ice-shelf flow. The efforts to fit artificial interferograms generated with model velocity output suggest that the flow regime is strongly influenced by three processes. First, a void-creation process responsible for rifts at coastal margins tends to uncouple the ice shelf from the ice rise and neighboring coast of BI. Secondly, sea ice within the void space appears to act as a binding agent between discrete ice-shelf fragments, allowing rigid-body rotations of these fragments. Third, strain rates appear to be enhanced in a narrow zone adjacent to HIR, implying significant strain softening along the boundary. It is believed that synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferogram/model intercomparison represents a powerful impetus towards the development of better, more physically realistic ice-shelf flow models.

Rignot, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modelling Tritium Production and Release at High-Energy Proton Accelerators

Tritium is a well-known byproduct of particle accelerator operations. To keep levels of tritium below regulatory limits, tritium production is actively monitored and managed at Fermilab. We plan to study tritium production in the targets, beamline components, and shielding elements of the Fermilab facilities such as NuMI, BNB, and MI-65. To facilitate the analysis, we construct a simple model and use three Monte Carlo radiation codes, FLUKA, MARS, and PHITS, to estimate the amount of tritium produced in these facilities. The analysis could also serve as an intercomparison between these code results related to tritium production. To assess the actual amounts of tritium that would be released from various materials, we employ a semi-empirical diffusion model. The results of this analysis are compared to experimental data whenever possible. This approach also helps to optimize proposed target materials with respect to the tritium production and release.

Georgobiani, Dali [Fermilab]↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Comparison of Aircraft and Ground-Based Measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, During GTE PEM-West and MLOPEX 2

During October 19-20, 1991, one flight of the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM-West A) mission was conducted near Hawaii as an intercomparison with ground-based measurements of the Mauna Loa Observatory Photochemistry Experiment (MLOPEX 2) and the NOAA Climate Modeling and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL). Ozone, reactive nitrogen species, peroxides, hydrocarbons, and halogenated hydrocarbons were measured by investigators aboard the DC-8 aircraft and at the ground site. Lidar cross sections of ozone revealed a complex air mass structure near the island of Hawaii which was evidenced by large variation in some trace gas mixing ratios. This variation limited the time and spatial scales for direct measurement intercomparisons. Where differences occurred between measurements in the same air masses, the intercomparison suggested that biases for some trace gases was due to different calibration scales or, in some cases, instrumental or sampling biases. Relatively large uncertainties were associated with those trace gases present in the low parts per trillion by volume range. Trace gas correlations were used to expand the scope of the intercomparison to identify consistent trends between the different data sets.

Atlas, E.↗