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DOE OSTI2023

Predicting wind farm operations with machine learning and the P2D‐RANS model: A case study for an AWAKEN site

Abstract The power performance and the wind velocity field of an onshore wind farm are predicted with machine learning models and the pseudo‐2D RANS model, then assessed against SCADA data. The wind farm under investigation is one of the sites involved with the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN). The performed simulations enable predictions of the power capture at the farm and turbine levels while providing insights into the effects on power capture associated with wake interactions that operating upstream turbines induce, as well as the variability caused by atmospheric stability. The machine learning models show improved accuracy compared to the pseudo‐2D RANS model in the predictions of turbine power capture and farm power capture with roughly half the normalized error. The machine learning models also entail lower computational costs upon training. Further, the machine learning models provide predictions of the wind turbulence intensity at the turbine level for different wind and atmospheric conditions with very good accuracy, which is difficult to achieve through RANS modeling. Additionally, farm‐to‐farm interactions are noted, with adverse impacts on power predictions from both models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

OCHRE: The Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy Model for Dynamic Integration Studies

Electrification and the growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), including flexible loads, are changing the energy landscape of electric distribution systems and creating new challenges and opportunities for electric utilities. Changes in demand profiles require improvements in distribution system load models, which have not historically accounted for device controllability or impacts on customer comfort. Although building modeling research has focused on these features, there is a need to incorporate them into distribution load models that include DERs and can be used to study grid-interactive buildings. In this paper, we present the Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy (OCHRE) model. OCHRE is a controllable thermal-electric residential energy model that captures building thermal dynamics, integrates grid-dependent electrical behavior, contains models for common DERs and end-use loads, and simulates at a time resolution down to 1 minute. It includes models for space heaters, air conditioners, water heaters, electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and batteries that are externally controllable and integrated in a co-simulation framework. Using a proposed zero energy ready community in Colorado, we co-simulate a distribution grid and 498 all-electric homes with a diverse set of efficiency levels and equipment properties. We show that controllable devices can reduce peak demand within a neighborhood by up to 73% during a critical peak period without sacrificing occupant comfort. We also demonstrate the importance of modeling load diversity at a high time resolution when quantifying power and voltage fluctuations across a distribution system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Examination of stiff ion temperature gradient mode physics in simulations of DIII-D H-mode transport

This paper presents comparisons of predictions from two models of turbulent transport in tokamaks. The focus is on assessing how close a reduced but significantly less computationally demanding model (TGLF) does in matching the more detailed model (CGYRO) in predicting scalings with driving gradient ("stiffness"). The impacts of other physics mechanisms such as flow shear, fast ions, and electromagnetic fluctuations on these predictions is also studied. Overall, while there are clear differences in the scaling, these do not appear to significantly impact the fidelity of the reduced model in prediction the experimental conditions studied relative to the more advanced model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

ν μ and ν τ elastic scattering in Borexino

We perform a detailed study of neutrino-electron elastic scattering using the monoenergetic Be 7 neutrinos in Borexino, with an emphasis on exploring the differences between the contributions of ν e , ν μ , and ν τ . We find that current data are capable of measuring these components such that the contributions from ν μ and ν τ cannot be zero, although distinguishing between them is challenging—the differences stemming from Standard Model radiative corrections are insufficient without significantly more precise measurements. In studying these components, we compare predicted neutrino-electron scattering event rates within the Standard Model (accounting for neutrino oscillations), as well as going beyond the Standard Model in two ways. We allow for nonunitary evolution to modify neutrino oscillations, and find that with a larger exposure ( ∼ 30 x ), Borexino may provide relevant information for constraining nonunitarity, and that JUNO may be able to accomplish this with its data collection of Be 7 neutrinos. We also consider novel ν μ - and ν τ -electron scattering from a gauged U ( 1 ) L μ − L τ model, showing consistency with previous analyses of Borexino and this scenario, but also demonstrating the impact of uncertainties on Standard Model mixing parameters on these results. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Kelly, Kevin J. (ORCID:0000000248922093)↗

DOE OSTI2024

WETO Software Stack Best Practices

Wind energy researchers typically share one key characteristic: a passion for increasing wind energy in the global energy mix. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supports this mission in a number of ways including allocating funding directly to various aspects of wind energy research through the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) via the Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO). While the traditional output of research is academic publication, software development efforts are increasingly a major focus. Software tools in the research environment allow researchers to describe an idea and quickly increase the scope and scale as they study it further. As a product of research, these tools represent a direct pipeline from researcher to industry practitioners since they are the implementation of ideas described in academic publications. Given this vital role in wind energy research and commercial development, the broad research software portfolio supported by WETO must maintain a minimum level of quality to support the wind energy field in the growing transition to renewable energy. This report outlines a series o f best practices to be adopted by all WETO-supported software projects, as well as expectations that the communities interacting with these projects should have of the developers and tools themselves. Wind energy research software has a unique standing in the field of scientific software. The stakeholders are varied with a subset being: (1) DOE EERE leadership, (2) DOE WETO leadership and program managers, (3) National lab leadership, (4) Associated project principle investigators, (5) Research software engineers, (6) Wind energy researchers in academia (including graduate students, post docs, and national lab staff), (7) Industry researchers and practitioners, (8) Commercial software developers, and (9) The general public interested in wind energy. These software are typically the end-user of other generic software libraries, so the funding cycles are often tied to applied research rather than the development of the software itself. Since the developers are also wind energy researchers, these tools are typically designed in a way that closely resembles the application in which they're used. Additionally, the expertise and incentives for the developers have a high variability, and often neither are aligned with software engineering or computer science. Given the unique environment in which wind energy research software is produced and consumed, it is critical for model owners to understand the context of their software. A framework for developing this understanding is to answer the following questions of a given software project: What is it's purpose? What is its role in the field of wind energy? What is the profile of the expected users? For how long will it be relevant? What is the expected impact? These questions allow model owners to identify the appropriate methods for the design, development, and long term maintenance of their software. Additionally, the answer provide context for future planners to understand why particular decisions were made and discern the consequences of changing course. The information is aggregated from experience within WETO-supported software development groups as well as external organizations and efforts to define the craft of research software engineering. These best practices aim to make the collaborative development process efficient and effective while improving the model understanding across stakeholders. Additionally, the general adoption of a common framework for software quality ensures that the end users of WETO software can trust these tools and accurately understand the risks to workflow integration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Fast Charging and Wetting in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Optimal Microstructure Patterns Identified by Genetic Algorithm

To sustain the high-rate current required for fast charging electric vehicle batteries, electrodes must exhibit sufficiently high effective ionic diffusion. Additionally, to reduce battery manufacturing costs, wetting time must decrease. Both of these issues can be addressed by structuring the electrodes with mesoscale pore channels. However, their optimal spatial distribution, or patterns, is unknown. Herein, a genetic algorithm has been developed to identify these optimal patterns using a CPU-cheap proxy distance-based model to evaluate the impact of the added pore networks. Both coin-cell and pouch cell form factors have been considered for the wetting analysis, with their respective electrolyte infiltration mode. Regular hexagonal and mud-crack-like patterns, respectively, for fast charging and fast wetting were found to be optimal and have been compared with pre-determined, easier to manufacture, patterns. The model predicts that using cylindrical channels arranged in a regular hexagonal pattern is ∼6.25 times more efficient for fast charging as compared to grooved lines with both structuring strategies being restricted to a 5% electrode total volume loss. The model also shows that only a very limited electrode volume loss (1%–2%) is required to dramatically improve the wetting (5–20 times) compared to an unstructured electrode.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Framework for the Assessment of a Sustainable Hydrogen Production and Supply Chain Network in California

The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.

Zaki, Mohammed Tamim↗

DOE OSTI2023

Criticality Accident Alarm System Modeling for the Uranium Processing Facility

The Criticality Accident Alarm System (CAAS) for the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) provides coverage for two primary processing facilities. For UPF, detailed documentation and drawings of the design are readily available. While this design information allows for some CAAS modeling features to match the actual design with a high level of accuracy, assumptions and simplifications are necessary as it is unrealistic and unnecessary to replicate many aspects of the design. A set of modeling guidelines and techniques were used to develop consistency between the MCNP6 models. While ensuring conservatism, overly conservative choices must be avoided to demonstrate the minimum accident of concern can be detected. To ensure proper modeling choices were made for the final models, a group of parametric studies were performed to evaluate the impact on the dose rates detected at the individual detectors. Some of these modeling choices and/or associated parametric studies include: - Modeling the grid steel area above the detectors as homogeneous stainless steel and determining the impact on detectability with an increasing density. - Modeling the presence of equipment in close proximity to the CAAS detectors. - Determining an appropriate material density to represent miscellaneous items not specifically modeled. - Evaluating the impact of sprinkler activation. The results of UPF CAAS analyses show that the modeling assumptions made based on the detailed design and parametric studies are appropriate and demonstrate accurate yet conservative models have been developed for detecting minimum accident of concern within the UPF.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of fire on chemical properties and respiration of boreal forest soils

We collected both organic-rich and sandy soil cores from 12 sites (site_location_and_texture.csv) within Wood Buffalo National Park, Alberta, Canada. Laboratory burns were conducted by exposing intact soil cores to 60 kW m^-2 in a mass loss calorimeter to simulate boreal forest crown fires in order to measure the effects of burning (temp_data.csv) on soil properties including pH, total C, and total nitrogen (N) (metadata.csv). We used 70-day soil incubations and two-pool exponential decay models to characterize the impacts of burning and burn-induced changes in soil properties on soil respiration (soil_moisture_at_end_of_incubation.csv; soil_mass_at_end_of_incubation.csv; respiration_data.csv). Laboratory burns successfully captured a range of soil temperatures that were realistic for natural wildfire events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of automated battery sorting for mineral recovery from lithium-ion battery recycling in the United States

The United States has identified several lithium-ion battery materials as critical for reaching the national emission reduction targets that have been set in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, with few natural resources available domestically, there is a rapidly growing focus on the development of a domestic recycling industry to recover these materials from end-of-life batteries. Here, we use the Lithium-Ion Battery Resources Assessment (LIBRA) system dynamics model to evaluate the impact of automated battery sorting technology in terms of the shares of cobalt and nickel that are recovered through recycling. Findings show that automated sorting has clear benefits over manual sorting methods by helping recyclers selectively process high-cobalt batteries. By maximizing cobalt recovery, recycling becomes more profitable and drives greater investment in recycling capacity, resulting in a higher share of nickel and cobalt recovered from EOL batteries over time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Grey-box Fault Models and Applications for Low Carbon Emission CO2 Refrigeration System

CO2 refrigeration systems have attracted more attentions in recent years because of their zero-carbon emission advantages compared with traditional refrigerants. These systems are widely used in certain commercial buildings such as supermarkets. However, very limited energy studies have been done for such refrigeration systems under faults. Furthermore, this study investigated five common faults for supermarket transcritical CO2 refrigeration systems with display cases. The following major tasks were implemented for this study. (1) Five fault models (gray-box format) regarding the power consumption and supply air temperature were proposed for low- and high-temperature display cases, respectively. The models cover: ice accumulation on evaporator coil, evaporator fan partial failure, expansion valve failure, display door open, and condenser blockage. (2) These fault models were calibrated with field tests, and the modeling accuracies were in good agreement with measurement datasets. (3) The proposed fault models demonstrated more than 90% of fault detection for Fault Detection and Diagnostics (FDD) purposes for both field measurement and simulated data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Exploiting small-scale information with lensing shear ratios

Using the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we use ratios of small-scale galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements around the same lens sample to constrain source redshift uncertainties, intrinsic alignments and other systematics or nuisance parameters of our model. Instead of using a simple geometric approach for the ratios as has been done in the past, we use the full modeling of the galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements, including the corresponding integration over the power spectrum and the contributions from intrinsic alignments and lens magnification. We perform extensive testing of the small-scale shear-ratio (SR) modeling by studying the impact of different effects such as the inclusion of baryonic physics, nonlinear biasing, halo occupation distribution descriptions and lens magnification, among others, and using realistic N -body simulations of the DES data. We validate the robustness of our constraints in the data by using two independent lens samples with different galaxy properties, and by deriving constraints using the corresponding large-scale ratios for which the modeling is simpler. The results applied to the DES Y3 data demonstrate how the ratios provide significant improvements in constraining power for several nuisance parameters in our model, especially on source redshift calibration and intrinsic alignments. For source redshifts, SR improves the constraints from the prior by up to 38% in some redshift bins. Such improvements, and especially the constraints it provides on intrinsic alignments, translate to tighter cosmological constraints when shear ratios are combined with cosmic shear and other 2pt functions. In particular, for the DES Y3 data, SR improves S 8 constraints from cosmic shear by up to 31%, and for the full combination of probes ( 3 × 2 pt ) by up to 10%. The shear ratios presented in this work are used as an additional likelihood for cosmic shear, 2 × 2 pt and the full 3 × 2 pt in the fiducial DES Y3 cosmological analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The mechanisms and seasonal differences of the impact of aerosols on daytime surface urban heat island effect

The urban heat island intensity (UHII) is the temperature difference between urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational Modeling of Photovoltaic Mini-Modules Undergoing Accelerated Stress Testing

A finite element model of a four-cell photovoltaic mini-module was developed and compared to experimental results from an accelerated stress test protocol in order to validate that computational models can accurately represent their physical counterparts when subjected to mechanical loading and to assess mini-module representativeness against full scale photovoltaic modules. Deflected shapes across the simulated mini-modules were compared to measured mini-module shapes when subjected to various pressure loads. Displaced mini-module shape results constrained to the experimental protocols of 0.4 mm and 1.1 mm of displacement at the mini-module center were compared to experimental results of full-size modules subjected to module qualification test load levels of 1.0 kPa and 2.4 kPa, to assess if the bending of mini-modules was representative of full-sized modules under the load. Temperature cycling was incorporated into the model to simulate the impacts of stress due to thermal expansion of the backsheet and cells. A preliminary uncertainty analysis was performed to show how variations in material properties and geometric parameters change the simulation results.

computational modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of oxidation and carbonation on the release rates of iodine, selenium, technetium, and nitrogen from a cementitious waste form

Evaluation of the long-term retention mechanisms and potential release rates for the primary constituents of potential concern (COPCs) (i.e., Tc, I, Se, and nitrate) is necessary to determine if Cast Stone, a radioactive waste form, can meet performance objectives under near-surface disposal scenarios. In this work, a mineral and parameter set accounting for the solubility of I and Se in Cast Stone was developed based on pH-dependent and monolithic diffusion leaching test results, to extend a geochemical speciation model previously developed. The impact of oxidation and carbonation as environmental aging processes on the retention properties of Cast Stone for primary COPCs was systematically estimated. Physically, the effective diffusion coefficients of 4 COPCs in Cast Stone were increased after carbonation and/or oxidation, reflecting an increase in permeability to diffusion. Chemically, i) pH & pe conditions in the original Cast Stone were favorable for the stabilization of Tc, but not for I, Se, and N; ii) oxidation (with/without carbonation) of Cast Stone changed the pe & pH conditions to be detrimental for Tc stabilization; and iii) carbonation (with/without oxidation) of Cast Stone modified the pH & pe conditions to be beneficial for the stabilization of I (in system with Ag added) and Se.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE CHOICE MODELS EXAMINING ALTERNATIVE FUEL TECHNOLOGY PREFERENCES AMONG COMMERCIAL FLEET OWNERS

Agent-based transportation models are critical tool for evaluating energy use, emissions and mobility impacts of transportation. In this context, vehicle ownership models are critical for linking agent activities to their impacts on the transportation system. However, no agent-based freight transportation models to date has been developed that predicts the fuel technology that is preferred by establishments when purchasing a Light Duty Vehicle (LDV) for business purposes. This research addresses this gap by using recently collected survey data to estimate a discrete choice model that can be applied in the agent-based context.

commercial↗