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At least 973 records · Page 54

Magnetic effects of large-scale impacts on airless planetary bodies

The analysis of lunar orbital and sample data combined with laboratory measurements of impact-produced plasmas suggest that large-scale impacts on planetary surfaces may have had significant magnetic effects. These effects may potentially explain part of all lunar crustal magnetization and, by extension, may be responsible for producing paleomagnetism on other airless silicate bodies in the solar system. Theoretical studies are presented of the magnetic field and remanent magnetization effects of basin-scale impacts on the Moon. The specific case of a Moon exposed to the solar wind plasma flow and its embedded magnetic field is investigated. It is shown that maximum compressed field amplitudes occur antipodal to the impact point in agreement with the observed tendency for orbital magnetic anomalies to be concentrated antipodal to young large lunar basins. Generalization of these results to include magnetic effects of impacts on other airless or nearly airless bodies in the solar system is presented.

Hood, L. L.↗

Impact Real World System Validation

Introduction NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model. This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. A validation analysis of IMPACT was performed with respect to a set of International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle Transportation System (STS) real world system (RWS) referent data due to the limited referent data available from exploration missions. Methods Observed mission and crew characteristics from STS and ISS missions were used as model inputs within MEDPRAT (Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool). For each mission, two hundred thousand simulations were generated. For each mission, model outputs included occurrence counts for each condition, total medical events (TME), and the probability of loss of crew life (LOCL). These simulated model outputs were compared to the RWS referent data. Results The predicted number of total medical events exceeded the total RWS medical events for ISS missions and combined ISS and STS missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for STS missions. For the 32 ISS missions simulated by IMPACT, the number of total medical events was overpredicted for 19 missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for 13 missions. For the 21 STS missions, the total number of medical events was overpredicted for 3 missions, fell within the 90% confidence interval for 16 missions, and was underpredicted for 2 missions. Combined, 29 missions were in range, 22 were overpredicted, and 2 were underpredicted. The predicted LOCL probability for the 32 ISS missions, the 21 STS missions, and the combined ISS and STS missions was consistent with the zero LOCL events observed in the RWS referent data. The validation analysis included a comparison of the number of medical events predicted by IMPACT and the number of medical events observed in the RWS data on a condition-by-condition basis. For ISS missions, 50 conditions were in range, 52 conditions were statistically underpowered (not enough observed sample to draw any conclusions on precision), 8 conditions were overpredicted, and 9 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 14% (17/119) of conditions were out of range for STS missions, 40 conditions were in range, 59 conditions were statistically underpowered, 10 conditions were overpredicted, and 10 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 17% (20/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 11 conditions were overpredicted, and 11 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 18% (22/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 49 conditions were in range, 46 conditions were statistically underpowered, 18 conditions were overpredicted, and 8 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, 21% (26/121) of conditions were out of range. Conclusion The results of this validation analysis should not be interpreted as a pass/fail test of the validity of IMPACT. Instead, this validation analysis should be used to assess some of the IMPACT outcomes in terms of consistencies and inconsistencies with the ISS and STS RWS referent data.

L. Boley↗

Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

Abstract Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems’ adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact Testing of 410 Stainless Steel for Material Impact Model Development

A project is underway to develop a consistent set of material properties, impact test data, and failure analysis for a variety of metallic aircraft materials that can be used to develop improved impact failure and deformation models. This project is jointly funded by the NASA Glenn Research Center and the Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center. Particular features of this set of data are that all material property and impact test data are obtained using traceable material, the test methods and procedures are extensively documented, and all the raw data are available. Four parallel efforts are currently underway: measurement of material deformation and failure response over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures, failure analysis of material property specimens and impact test articles, development of improved numerical modeling techniques for deformation and failure, and impact testing of flat panels and substructures for model validation. This report describes impact testing performed on 410 stainless steel sheet and plate samples of different thicknesses with two different types of projectiles, one a regular cylinder and one with a more complex geometry incorporating features representative of a jet engine fan blade. Data from this testing will be used in validating material models developed under this program. The material tests and the material models developed in this program will be published in separate reports.

410 Stainless Steel↗

Analysis of simple 2-D and 3-D metal structures subjected to fragment impact

Theoretical methods were developed for predicting the large-deflection elastic-plastic transient structural responses of metal containment or deflector (C/D) structures to cope with rotor burst fragment impact attack. For two-dimensional C/D structures both, finite element and finite difference analysis methods were employed to analyze structural response produced by either prescribed transient loads or fragment impact. For the latter category, two time-wise step-by-step analysis procedures were devised to predict the structural responses resulting from a succession of fragment impacts: the collision force method (CFM) which utilizes an approximate prediction of the force applied to the attacked structure during fragment impact, and the collision imparted velocity method (CIVM) in which the impact-induced velocity increment acquired by a region of the impacted structure near the impact point is computed. The merits and limitations of these approaches are discussed. For the analysis of 3-d responses of C/D structures, only the CIVM approach was investigated.

Witmer, E. A.↗

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rock failure analysis by combined thermal weakening and water jet impact

The influence of preheating on the initiation of fracture in rocks subjected to the impingement of a continuous water jet is studied. Preheating the rock is assumed to degrade its mechanical properties and strength in accordance with existing experimental data. The water jet is assumed to place a quasi-static loading on the surface of the rock. The loading is approximated by elementary functions which permit analytic computation of the induced stresses in a rock half-space. The resulting stresses are subsequently coupled with the Griffith criteria for tensile failure to estimate the change, due to heating, in the critical stagnation pressure and velocity of the water jet required to cause failure in the rock.

Nayfeh, A. H.↗

A study of the feasibility of using sea and wind information from the ERS-1 satellite. Part 1: Wind scatterometer data

The use of scatterometer and altimeter data in wind and wave assimilation, and the benefits this offers for quality assurance and validation of ERS-1 data were examined. Real time use of ERS-1 data was simulated through assimilation of Seasat scatterometer data. The potential for quality assurance and validation is demonstrated by documenting a series of substantial problems with the scatterometer data, which are known but took years to establish, or are new. A data impact study, and an analysis of the performance of ambiguity removal algorithms on real and simulated data were conducted. The impact of the data on analyses and forecasts is large in the Southern Hemisphere, generally small in the Northern Hemisphere, and occasionally large in the Tropics. Tests with simulated data give more optimistic results than tests with real data. Errors in ambiguity removal results occur in clusters. The probabilities which can be calculated for the ambiguous wind directions on ERS-1 contain more information than is given by a simple ranking of the directions.

Anderson, D.↗

Transient dynamic analysis of laminated composite plates subjected to transverse impact

The dynamic response of a composite laminate plate to transverse impact loading is simulated numerically. An FEM scheme based on an eight-point brick element and three-dimensional linear elasticity theory is employed, assuming that the laminate layers are homogeneous and orthotropic. The derivation of the model is given in detail; the numerical implementation is briefly outlined; and results for the impact of 0.5-inch-diameter Al spheres at 500, 1000, and 1500 inch/sec on clamped or simply supported 3 x 3-inch plates made of T300/934 graphite/epoxy prepreg with ply orientation (0/-45/45/90)2S are presented in extensive graphs. The model is shown to provide accurate information on the histories of impactor-plate contact force; impactor displacement and velocity; and displacement, velocity, strain, and stress throughout the plate.

Wu, Hsi-Yung T.↗

An examination of the damage tolerance enhancement of carbon/epoxy using an outer lamina of spectra (R)

Low velocity instrumented impact testing was utilized to examine the effects of an outer lamina of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (Spectra) on the damage tolerance of carbon epoxy composites. Four types of 16-ply quasi-isotropic panels (0, +45, 90, -45) were tested. Some panels contained no Spectra, while others had a lamina of Spectra bonded to the top (impacted side), bottom, or both sides of the composite plates. The specimens were impacted with energies up to 8.5 J. Force time plots and maximum force versus impact energy graphs were generated for comparison purposes. Specimens were also subjected to cross-sectional analysis and compression after impact tests. The results show that while the Spectra improved the maximum load that the panels could withstand before fiber breakage, the Spectra seemingly reduced the residual strength of the composites.

Lance, D. G.↗

Analysis of aircraft engine blade subject to ice impact

The ice impact on the engine blade made of layered composite is simulated. The ice piece is modeled as an equivalent spherical object and has the velocity opposite to that of the aircraft with direction parallel to the engine axis. Near the impact region and along the leading edge, the blade is assumed to be fully stressed and undergoes large deflection. A specified portion of the blade around the impact region is modeled. The effect of ice size and velocity on the average leading edge strain are investigated for a modified SR-2 model unswept composite propfan blade. Parametric studies are performed to study the response due to ice impact at various locations along the span. Also, the effects of engine speed on the strain and impact displacements are discussed. It is found that for a given engine speed, a critical ice speed exists that corresponds to the maximum strain and this critical speed increases with increase in the engine speed.

Reddy, E. S.↗

Root damage analysis of aircraft engine blade subject to ice impact

The blade root response due to ice impact on an engine blade is simulated using the NASA in-house code BLASIM. The ice piece is modeled as an equivalent spherical object impacting on the leading edge of the blade and has the velocity opposite to that of the aircraft with direction parallel to the engine axis. The effect of ice impact is considered to be an impulse load on the blade with its amplitude computed based on the momentum transfer principle. The blade response due to the impact is carried out by modal superposition using the first three modes. The maximum dynamic stresses at the blade root are computed at the quarter cycle of the first natural frequency. A combined stress failure function based on modified distortion energy is used to study the spanwise bending damage response at the blade root. That damage function reaches maximum value for very low ice speeds and increases steeply with increases in engine speed.

Reddy, E. S.↗