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At least 973 records · Page 54

Best Practices for Modeling and Simulation of CO 2 Storage

The purpose of this best practices manual (BPM) is to describe lessons learned and best practices for modeling and simulation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) geologic storage (herein “storage”) projects. Information presented here is derived from laboratory and field storage project activities conducted by the Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership. Modeling and simulation collectively comprise one of four technical elements of the adaptive management approach (AMA) formalized by the PCOR Partnership for storage project development. The other technical elements are site characterization; risk assessment; and monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) of injected CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ON THE NOTION OF WELL-DEFINED TECTONIC REGIMES FOR TERRESTRIAL PLANETS IN THIS SOLAR SYSTEM AND OTHERS

A model of coupled mantle convection and planetary tectonics is used to demonstrate that history dependence can outweigh the effects of a planet's energy content and material parameters in determining its tectonic state. The mantle convection-surface tectonics system allows multiple tectonic modes to exist for equivalent planetary parameter values. The tectonic mode of the system is then determined by its specific geologic and climatic history. This implies that models of tectonics and mantle convection will not be able to uniquely determine the tectonic mode of a terrestrial planet without the addition of historical data. Historical data exists, to variable degrees, for all four terrestrial planets within our solar system. For the Earth, the planet with the largest amount of observational data, debate does still remain regarding the geologic and climatic history of Earth's deep past but constraints are available. For planets in other solar systems, no such constraints exist at present. The existence of multiple tectonic modes, for equivalent parameter values, points to a reason why different groups have reached different conclusions regarding the tectonic state of extrasolar terrestrial planets larger than Earth ({sup s}uper-Earths{sup )}. The region of multiple stable solutions is predicted to widen in parameter space for more energetic mantle convection (as would be expected for larger planets). This means that different groups can find different solutions, all potentially viable and stable, using identical models and identical system parameter values. At a more practical level, the results argue that the question of whether extrasolar terrestrial planets will have plate tectonics is unanswerable and will remain so until the temporal evolution of extrasolar planets can be constrained.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗

A multiscale multi-permeability poroplasticity model linked by recursive homogenizations and deep learning

Many geological materials, such as shale, mudstone, carbonate rock, limestone and rock salt are multi-porosity porous media in which pores of different scales may co-exist in the host matrix. When fractures propagate in these multi-porosity materials, these pores may enlarge and coalesce and therefore change the magnitude and the principal directions of the effective permeability tensors. The pore-fluid inside the cracks and the pores of host matrix may interact and exchange fluid mass, but the difference in hydraulic properties of these pores often means that a single homogenized effective permeability tensor field is insufficient to characterize the evolving hydraulic properties of these materials at smaller time scale. Furthermore, the complexity of the hydro-mechanical coupling process and the induced mechanical and hydraulic anisotropy originated from the micro-fracture and plasticity at grain scale also makes it difficult to propose, implement and validate separated macroscopic constitutive laws for numerical simulations. Here this article presents a hybrid data-driven method designed to capture the multiscale hydro-mechanical coupling effect of porous media with pores of various different sizes. At each scale, data-driven models generated from supervised machine learning are hybridized with classical constitutive laws in a directed graph that represents the numerical models. By using sub-scale simulations to generate database to train material models, an offline homogenization procedure is used to replace the up-scaling procedure to generate cohesive laws for localized physical discontinuities at both grain and specimen scales. Through a proper homogenization procedure that preserves spatial length scales, the proposed method enables field-scale simulations to gather insights from meso-scale and grain-scale micro-structural attributes. This method is proven to be much more computationally efficient than the classical DEM–FEM or FEM2 approach while at the same time more robust and flexible than the classical surrogate modeling approach. Due to the usage of bridging-scale technique, the proposed model may provide multiple opportunities to incorporate different types of simulations and experimental data across different length scales for machine learning. Numerical issues will also be discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The geology of Europa

The map units and lineations of Europa are detailed, and the geologic processes, and history, and thick and thin ice models of the satellite are discussed. It is concluded that Europa lacks evidence of a horizontally stratified crust; the geology appears characterized by disruption of the crust and intrusions into an icy shell. The surface consists of plains and mottled terrain, the former being older. Numerous straight and curved lineations, streaks, stripes, and bands cross EuropA's surface on a global and surface scale. Most lineations appear related to fractures in the crust. Five fresh craters in the 10 to 30 km diameter range are visible. The dark spots, stripes, and bands that appear to have replaced sections of the crust suggest that material was transported to the surface from the subjacent silicate lithosphere. The apparent low density of craters superposed on Europa's surface suggests that the surface is about 100 million years old.

Lucchitta, B. K.↗

Impact of GRM: New evidence from the Soviet Union

Gravity information released by the Soviet Union allows the quantitative assessment of how the geopotential research mission (GRM) mission might effect the ability to use global gravity data for continental tectonic interpretation. The information is of an isostatic response spectra for eight individual tectonic units in the USSR. The regions examined include the Caroathians, Caucasus, Urals, Pamirs, Tien-Shan, Altal, Chersky Ridge, and East Siberian Platform. The 1 deg x 1 deg gravity data are used to calculate the admittances are used in two different sorts of tectonic studies of mountain belts in the USSR: (1) interpretation of isostatic responses in terms of plate models of compensation for mountainous terrain. Using geologic information concerning time of the orogeny, lithospheric plates involved, and polarity of subduction in collision zones, they convert the best-fitting flexural rigidity to an elastic plate thickness for the lithospheric plate inferred to underlie the mountains; the isostatic admittance functions is an attempt to directly model gravity and topography data for a few select regions in the Soviet Union. By knowing the value of the expected correlation between topography and gravity from the admittances, the Artemjev's map in mountainous areas can be calibrated, and the maps are converted back to Bouguer gravity. This procedure is applied to the Caucasus and southern Urals.

Mcnutt, M.↗

Optimal carbon storage reservoir management through deep reinforcement learning

Model-based optimization plays a central role in energy system design and management. The complexity and high-dimensionality of many process-level models, especially those used for geosystem energy exploration and utilization, often lead to formidable computational costs when the dimension of decision space is also large. This work adopts elements of recently advanced deep learning techniques to solve a sequential decision-making problem in applied geosystem management. Specifically, a deep reinforcement learning framework was formed for optimal multiperiod planning, in which a deep Q-learning network (DQN) agent was trained to maximize rewards by learning from high-dimensional inputs and from exploitation of its past experiences. To expedite computation, deep multitask learning was used to approximate high-dimensional, multistate transition functions. Both DQN and deep multitask learning are pattern based. As a demonstration, the framework was applied to optimal carbon sequestration reservoir planning using two different types of management strategies: monitoring only and brine extraction. Both strategies are designed to mitigate potential risks due to pressure buildup. Results show that the DQN agent can identify the optimal policies to maximize the reward for given risk and cost constraints. Finally, experiments also show that knowledge the agent gained from interacting with one environment is largely preserved when deploying the same agent in other similar environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Modeling of Radiolytic Production of Oxidants Relevant to Corrosion of a Used Fuel Container in Deep Geologic Repository Environments - 17641

The Canadian used nuclear fuel disposal concept involves a deep geological repository using a multi-barrier system. A key barrier is the used fuel container (UFC). It consists of an inner vessel of carbon steel, which provides the structural strength to withstand repository loads, and an outer coating of copper acting as an external corrosion barrier. Relative to other design concepts, coated containers have thinner walls that provide less shielding for γ-radiation, raising the possibility of radiolysis-induced corrosion on the exterior of the container. Also, any trapped aerated water inside the container or in the bentonite clay may condense on the container surface, be exposed to γ-radiation and influence the container corrosion. Understanding the effect of radiation on container corrosion is one key factor to consider in the assessment of the integrity and longevity of the UFC. Humid air radiolysis produces HNO{sub 3} as the dominant oxidizing species. A conservative hemispherical water droplet model was developed to predict the accumulation of HNO{sub 3} and its impact on corrosion. Radiolysis of groundwater in the presence of Cl{sup -} mainly produces H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and HOCl. The concentration of these species is <10 mM and their sum remains almost constant. Radiation exposure tests showed radiation-induced corrosion on carbon steel and Cu. A systematic study of the Cu corrosion and the corrosion rate as a function of [H{sub 2}O{sub 2}], [HOCl], pH and γ-radiation is on-going. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Geoanalytical Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) Geodatabase v2.0

The Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) geodatabase was developed to support the United States Department of Energy (DOE) and National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in their geologic carbon storage efforts by characterizing saline geologic formations present in the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM) [1]. Using publicly available literature and data, the GEESS geodatabase characterizes 57 geologic formations across the lower-48 U.S. states in what are called Fully Integrated Geodatabases (FIGs). The FIG is a vector polygon feature containing thousands or tens of thousands of individual polygons, which each contain discrete geologic parameter values. A list of the critical geologic parameters that are characterized in the GEESS geodatabase are described in the “Processing Steps and Workflow” part of the ReadMe file, as well as the Data Catalog accompanying the GEESS geodatabase. The FIG is the basis of the GEESS geodatabase and is the direct representation of the collected geologic data. In addition to the FIG, the GEESS system contains grid files. Due to the complexity of the FIGs, grids are used to sample the geologic data so they can be exercised within CO2_S_COM. The grid files contain the geologic data sampled from the FIG, as well as estimates of “Plume Uncertainty Diameter” and “First-year Break-even Price of CO2” derived from CO2_S_COM based on the GEESS grid data.

carbon↗

Venus climate stability and volcanic resurfacing rates

The climate of Venus is to a large degree controlled by the radiative properties of its massive atmosphere. In addition, outgassing due to volcanic activity, exospheric escape processes, and surface/atmosphere interactions may all be important in moderating the abundances of atmospheric CO2 and other volatiles. We have developed an evolutionary climate model for Venus using a systems approach that emphasizes feedbacks between elements in the climate system. Modules for atmospheric radiative transfer, surface/atmosphere interactions, tropospheric chemistry, and exospheric escape processes have so far been developed. Climate feedback loops result from interconnections between modules, in the form of the environmental parameters pressure, temperature, and atmospheric mixing ratios. The radiative transfer module has been implemented by using Rosseland mean opacities in a one dimensional grey radiative-convective model. The model has been solved for the static (time independent) case to determine climate equilibrium points. The dynamics of the model have also been explored by employing reaction/diffusion kinetics for possible surface atmosphere heterogeneous reactions over geologic timescales. It was found that under current conditions, the model predicts that the climate of Venus is at or near an unstable equilibrium point. The effects of constant rate volcanism and corresponding exsolution of volatiles on the stability of the climate model were also explored.

Bullock, M. A.↗

The Formation of Life-sustaining Planets in Extrasolar Systems

The spatial exploration is providing us a large quantity of information about the composition of the planets and satellites crusts. However, most of the experiences that are proposed in the guides of activities in Planetary Geology are based exclusively on the images utilization: photographs, maps, models or artistic reconstructions [1,2]. That things help us to recognize shapes and to deduce geological processes, but they says us little about the materials that they are implicated. In order to avoid this dicotomy between shapes and materials, we have designed an experience in the one which, employing of rocks and landscapes of our geological environment more next, the pupils be able to do an exercise of compared planetology analyzing shapes, processes and material of several planetary bodies of the Solar System.

Chambers, J. E.↗

Data for The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

Carbon↗

Dislocation model for aseismic fault slip in the transverse ranges of Southern California

Geodetic data at a plate boundary can reveal the pattern of subsurface displacements that accompany plate motion. These displacements are modelled as the sum of rigid block motion and the elastic effects of frictional interaction between blocks. The frictional interactions are represented by uniform dislocation on each of several rectangular fault patches. The block velocities and fault parameters are then estimated from geodetic data. Bayesian inversion procedure employs prior estimates based on geological and seismological data. The method is applied to the Transverse Ranges, using prior geological and seismological data and geodetic data from the USGS trilateration networks. Geodetic data imply a displacement rate of about 20 mm/yr across the San Andreas Fault, while the geologic estimates exceed 30 mm/yr. The prior model and the final estimates both imply about 10 mm/yr crustal shortening normal to the trend of the San Andreas Fault. Aseismic fault motion is a major contributor to plate motion. The geodetic data can help to identify faults that are suffering rapid stress accumulation; in the Transverse Ranges those faults are the San Andreas and the Santa Susana.

Cheng, A.↗

Stochastic Ensemble Generation for Improved Characterization of Representing Geologic Variability in a Reservoir: IBDP Case Study for SMART Initiative

This document is a poster covering the findings from activities on training data generation, specifically geologic ensemble generation. The generated geologic realizations captured the range of possible permeability distributions of the subsurface at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP) site, based on available well log variabilities. The percentages of reservoirs and baffles in the injection zone and a truncation of baffle permeability led to more variance in the simulations. This will be used to build forward modeling, history matching, and optimization workflows. The geologic realizations were also ranked according to dynamic measures of hydraulic diffusivity, and simulations confirm a greater contrast between the reservoir and the baffles during injection.

stochastic ensemble generation↗

Three-Dimensional Finite Difference Simulation of Ground Motions from the August 24, 2014 South Napa Earthquake

We performed three-dimensional (3D) anelastic ground motion simulations of the South Napa earthquake to investigate the performance of different finite rupture models and the effects of 3D structure on the observed wavefield. We considered rupture models reported by Dreger et al. (2015), Ji et al., (2015), Wei et al. (2015) and Melgar et al. (2015). We used the SW4 anelastic finite difference code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Petersson and Sjogreen, 2013) and distributed by the Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics. This code can compute the seismic response for fully 3D sub-surface models, including surface topography and linear anelasticity. We use the 3D geologic/seismic model of the San Francisco Bay Area developed by the United States Geological Survey (Aagaard et al., 2008, 2010). Evaluation of earlier versions of this model indicated that the structure can reproduce main features of observed waveforms from moderate earthquakes (Rodgers et al., 2008; Kim et al., 2010). Simulations were performed for a domain covering local distances (< 25 km) and resolution providing simulated ground motions valid to 1 Hz.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The geophysics, geology and mechanics of slow fault slip

We report that modern geodetic and seismologic observations describe the behavior of fault slip over a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. Slip at sub-seismogenic speeds is evident from top to bottom of lithospheric faults and plays an important role throughout the earthquake cycle. Where earthquakes and tremor accompany slow slip, they help illuminate the spatiotemporal evolution of fault slip. Geophysical subsurface imaging and geologic field studies provide information about suitable environments of slow slip. In particular, exhumed fault and shear zones from various depths reveal the importance of multiple deformation processes and fault-zone structures. Most geologic examples feature frictionally weak and velocity-strengthening materials, well-developed mineral fabrics, and abundant veining indicative of near-lithostatic fluid pressure. To produce transient slow slip events and tremor, in addition to the presence of high-pressure fluids a heterogeneous fault-zone structure, composition, and/or metamorphic assemblage may be needed. Laboratory and computational models suggest that velocity-weakening slip patches smaller than a critical dimension needed for earthquake nucleation will also fail in slow slip events. Changes in fluid pressure or slip rate can cause a fault to transition between stable and unstable fault slip behavior. Lastly, future interdisciplinary investigations of slow fault slip, directly integrating geophysical, geological and modeling investigations, will further improve our understanding of the dynamics of slow slip and aid in providing more accurate earthquake hazard characterizations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗