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At least 973 records · Page 54

Case Studies of the Economic Impacts of Power Interruptions and Damage to Electricity System Infrastructure from Extreme Events

The risks of long-duration, widespread interruptions (LDWIs) in electrical power are a concern of U.S. regulators, the electric power industry, and stakeholders. Those responsible for making decisions about increasingly costly investments to prevent such interruptions and to facilitate rapid recovery when they do occur need relevant information on which to base those decisions. Although a number of studies have examined the physical and engineering impacts of extreme weather and other precipitating events on the bulk power system, decision makers evaluating investments in preventive strategies need information on the costs of past power interruptions and the benefits of preventing them in the future. This paper contributes to addressing this need by offering six case studies that detail the economics, at the level of the utility service territory, of power interruptions caused by extreme weather and lasting from a few days to several weeks. These intermediate-duration interruptions have been, and will continue to be, the most common type of major electric power disruption. They are longer than the short-term disruptions addressed in utility reliability planning, but not as long or widespread geographically as the national-scale interruptions with durations of many weeks, months, or longer that have been examined in some recent studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Midwest EVOLVE (Midwest Electric Vehicle Opportunities: Learning, eVents, Experience)

The Midwest Electric Vehicle Opportunities: Learning, eVents, Experience (Midwest EVOLVE) project was a 45 month, seven-state effort to introduce electric vehicles to the public, workplaces, corporate fleets and auto dealership staff. Midwest EVOLVE projects were planned and completed in the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The project was coordinated by the American Lung Association of the Upper Midwest (ALAUM), dba Twin Cities Clean Cities Coalition (TC4).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Big Data Processing for Power Grid Event Detection

In this paper we present the application of big data processing for the development of machine learning(ML) models to detect relevant events in power gridoperations. This is based on almost 20TB of phasormeasurement unit data corresponding to up to two years of operation of three grid interconnections which provide power to most of the United States. A significant aspect of the work consists in having all data processing performed on a single standard GPU server, from pre-processing to ML model training and testing. We describe the data and computational infrastructure, challenges faced and methods used in dataprocessing, main findings and results. The ML approach employed for best utilization of the big data is also discussed, including sample results.

Paes Leao, Bruno↗

Event-scale predictions of water and nitrogen exports in coastal watersheds

Focal Area(s): The purpose of this white paper is to call for the improvement of the predictability and explainability of the magnitude and timing of water and nutrient exports in coastal watersheds. In this regard, hybrid machine learning approaches and process-based numerical models provide new opportunities to maximize predictability, emulate process-based model components, and explicitly address model uncertainty associated with event-scale predictions in coastal watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Models with Real-time Field Data for Extreme Events: From Field Sensors to Models and Back with AI in the Loop

Focal Area(s): This whitepaper is responsive to focal area (1) Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). We discuss Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) enabled integration of real-time data into the extreme event modeling workflow to improve the predictive capabilities of these models, and deliver real-time feedback to remote sensors, including software and data engineering challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-Informed Learning for Predictive Multi-Scale Modeling of Water Cycle and Extreme Events

Climate and earth system models have limited skill in predicting water cycle and associated extremes such as intense rain- and wind-producing storms and resulting hazards across all timescales. Water cycle predictions are inherently limited by the predictability of the chaotic system, but large potential for improving predictions remains untapped due to limited use of data-model integration to improve predictive modeling. This white paper proposes a hybrid data-physics paradigm based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to improve the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). In particular, we aim to predict and quantify uncertainties of water cycle processes and low probability high impact events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Urban Services: Regional Launch Event, 10-11 and 12-13 August 2021 [Slides]

The Integrated Urban Services (IUS) Program virtual launch event was conducted on August 10th and 12th, 2021 and provided education to the 26 cities in the ASEAN Smart Cities Network focused on integrated urban planning and the energy-food-water nexus. Experts representing academia, government, NGOs, and the private sector were invited to share knowledge and key lessons from their experience working on urban development projects in the ASEAN region and around the world. The IUS program, which is funded by the U.S. State Department and implemented by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, aims to promote systems integration and circular economy principles for resource recovery and reuse at the city scale. This new initiative will help ASEAN cities build resilience in their energy, water, and food provision systems. The objectives of this three-year project are to: Educate stakeholders on the benefits of circular economy approaches such as resource recovery and reuse, and on opportunities to build cost-efficient and resilient models of basic urban service and food provision; Provide technical assistance to two select cities within ASEAN to aid them in implementing regenerative EWF system pilot projects; and Engage the private sector to promote market-based planning and investment to support pilot project implementation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Theoretical tools for neutrino scattering: interplay between lattice QCD, EFTs, nuclear physics, phenomenology, and neutrino event generators

Maximizing the discovery potential of increasingly precise neutrino experiments will require an improved theoretical understanding of neutrino-nucleus cross sections over a wide range of energies. Low-energy interactions are needed to reconstruct the energies of astrophysical neutrinos from supernovae bursts and search for new physics using increasingly precise measurement of coherent elastic neutrino scattering. Higher-energy interactions involve a variety of reaction mechanisms including quasi-elastic scattering, resonance production, and deep inelastic scattering that must all be included to reliably predict cross sections for energies relevant to DUNE and other accelerator neutrino experiments. This white paper discusses the theoretical status, challenges, required resources, and path forward for achieving precise predictions of neutrino-nucleus scattering and emphasizes the need for a coordinated theoretical effort involved lattice QCD, nuclear effective theories, phenomenological models of the transition region, and event generators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Discrete-event Simulation Process Model for the Pyrochemical Processing of Plutonium at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The pyrochemical metal production operations that occur in the Plutonium Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory perform plutonium purification with the aim to provide plutonium metal for a variety of defense- and non-defense missions within the National Nuclear Security Administration. The demands and constraints associated with the pyrochemical processing of plutonium are complex, making decision analyses challenging for program managers who require plutonium production for their mission applications. The construction of a discrete-event simulation process model is proposed to measure and report the process capacity, material throughput, equipment requirements, and dose accumulation for operators of the pyrochemical metal production operations. The process model, constructed in the ExtendSim™ software, will represent the cause-and-effect relationships between the pyrochemical processing environment and the process constraints, including criticality limitations, material control and accountability measures, chemical analysis requirements, and equipment availability. An accurate representation of the pyrochemical metal production process capacity through simulation modeling will be helpful to program managers in their efforts to forecast plutonium availability for mission applications. Furthermore, the proposed process model will be vital for future analyses that will measure the interactions between the pyrochemical metal production operations and the aqueous reprocessing operations and their ability to minimize transuranic waste disposal.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Harmonized Automatic Relay Mitigation of Nefarious Intentional Events (HARMONIE) - Special Protection Scheme (SPS)

The harmonized automatic relay mitigation of nefarious intentional events (HARMONIE) special protection scheme (SPS) was developed to provide adaptive, cyber-physical response to unpredictable disturbances in the electric grid. The HARMONIE-SPS methodology includes a machine learning classification framework that analyzes real time cyber-physical data and determines if the system is in normal conditions, cyber disturbance, physical disturbance, or cyber-physical disturbance. This classification then informs response, if needed and/or suitable, and included cyber-physical corrective actions. Beyond standard power system mitigations, a few novel approaches were developed that included a consensus algorithm-based relay voting scheme, an automated power system triggering condition and corrective action pairing algorithm, and a cyber traffic routing optimization algorithm. Both the classification and response techniques were tested within a newly integrated emulation environment composed of a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) and SCEPTRE™. This report details the HARMONIE-SPS methodology, highlighting both the classification and response techniques, and the subsequent testing results from the emulation environment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Outdoor Test Bed Performance of a Power Line Sensor Using a Real-Time Event Simulator

This report summarizes the design and application of an outdoor power line sensor testbed (OPLST) with a real-time simulator and power meter to compare a potential transformer (PT) and current transformer (CT) versus an advanced line-post sensor. The OPLST was created to validate advanced medium-voltage (20/34.5 kV) outdoor power line sensors used in electrical distribution systems. Electrical utilities have installed metering and relay-protection transformers like PTs and CTs for several decades. The PTs/CTs are iron core measurement transformers based on the electromagnetic induction principle and provide reliable data in normal grid operation. However, new outdoor power line sensors (OPLS) using other technologies like voltage divider, Rogowski coil and optical principles have become available and may have favorable performance and costs compared to PTs/CTs. Therefore, the importance of testing these technologies with the PT/CT, to compare the measured phase voltage/current at different power grid scenarios is crucial to understand the performance of these new OPLS. For this study a G&W Electric Model CVS-36-O power line sensor was chosen as the OPLS to test with voltage/current signals. An OPAL-RT Technologies Model OP4510 real-time simulator and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories Model SEL-735 power meter were installed with the 20/34.5 kV OPLST to compare the measured transient events collected from an advanced OPLS and the PT/CT. This system is installed at the Distributed Energy Communications and Control (DECC) lab, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The simulator generated different power grid scenarios (electrical faults, capacitor bank operation, service restoration, etc.), and its analog-output signals were connected to the voltage/current amplifiers that feed the 20/34.5 kV aerial cable loop through the PT/CT devices. Additional PT/CT devices were also wired with the medium voltage aerial cable loop to measure the phase current/voltage signals and server as references. After each test, common format for transient data exchange (COMTRADE) files were collected from the SEL-735 power meter and used to compare the performance of the OPLS with the PT/CT. The behavior of analog signals, harmonic components, total harmonic distortion and crest factors were assessed and found favorable for the G&W sensor as compared to the reference PT/CT.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Theoretical tools for neutrino scattering: interplay between lattice QCD, EFTs, nuclear physics, phenomenology, and neutrino event generators

Neutrino physics is entering a precision era in which measurements of neutrino oscillations, astrophysical neutrinos from supernovae and other sources, and coherent neutrino scattering will provide insight on the nature of neutrino masses, the presence of CP violation, and perhaps more exotic new physics in the neutrino sector. Maximizing the discovery potential of increasingly precise neutrino experiments will require an improved theoretical understanding of neutrino-nucleus cross sections over a wide range of energies that uses a combination of lattice QCD, nuclear effective theories, phenomenological models, and neutrino event generators to make reliable theory predictions for experimentally relevant nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Analysis of Respirator Cartridge Performance Testing on the 702-AZ Primary Exhauster for the Hanford AY/AZ Tank Farms during a Waste-Disturbing Event

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) conducted tests using two types of chemical cartridges for use in air-purifying respirators (APR) to determine the period of time that the cartridges would provide adequate performance1 for APRs used to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of Chemicals of Potential Concern (COPC) from vapors exiting the 702-AZ Primary Exhauster for the Hanford AY-AZ tank farms. Unlike prior cartridge testing on the 702-AZ Primary Exhauster, the recent tests were performed during a waste-disturbing event. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identifies cartridge testing as a valid approach for establishing a cartridge change schedules. Testing is commonly applied in situations where mixtures of COPCs exist, and where other approaches, such as manufacturer recommendations and modeling, are less reliable. The tests were designed and conducted to assure measurement and/or control of the key variables OSHA identified as important to estimate the cartridge service life, including temperature, humidity, COPC concentration, breathing rate, and cartridge adsorption capacity. Testing was conducted from February 10–11, 2017, on a slipstream from the 702-AZ exhauster fed to a respirator cartridge test stand developed by WRPS in collaboration with HiLine Engineering (Richland, Washington). Multipurpose respirator cartridges, SCOTT 7422-SD1 and SCOTT 7422-SC1 (SCOTT Safety, Monroe, North Carolina), were assessed on separate days. Sample media (sorbent tubes) and canisters (e.g., Summa) sampling were used to collect samples of the vapor stream entering and exiting the respirator cartridge and were subsequently analyzed for COPC concentrations. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was tasked with conducting an independent analysis of the analytical results and making recommendations based on the results for respiratory cartridge performance and service life.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Hidden Flexibility of the Natural Gas Network for Electric Power Operations: A Case Study of a Near-Miss Winter Event

The U.S. power sector has become increasingly reliant on gas pipeline networks to deliver fuel to natural gas power plants. In addition to supplying relatively low-cost fuel, gas networks offer generators flexibility in their operations through the ability to deliver fuel when needed by using gas storage facilities or linepack if the gas network is at an operating point below its design capacity. However, disruptions or stress events on the gas network - like those occurring in the Northeast and Texas in recent years - can result in limitations on gas availability to generators at times when generation is in short supply. Here we examine a period of stress that occurred in the winter of 2022 in the Western United States. Using data on the region's natural gas pipeline network and electric generators, we build an integrated gas and electric model that closely replicates the actual dispatch of the period. We then evaluate the implications of removing flexibility employed by the gas network operator, which during that period curtailed scheduled gas deliveries to other parties to increase deliveries to natural gas power plants, which requested more gas than initially forecasted. We find that without the flexibility supplied by the gas network operator, there would have been curtailment of gas generation due to gas offtake constraints, requiring the power system operator to redispatch relying on more expensive generation or to potentially shed load. A sensitivity exploring a wind drought further exacerbates the strain, illustrating the potential challenge of managing gas and grid interactions as systems move to higher shares of variable renewable electricity. Based on this example, we discuss potential coordination strategies between the two system operators to ensure that the power system can successfully utilize and rely on the flexibility offered by natural gas networks.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Summary of Forensic Examinations in Support of Breach Sealed Source Event at Harborview Medical Facility on 2 May 2019

On May 2, 2019, International Isotopes, Inc. (INIS), a subcontractor to Triad National Security, LLC (contractor for Los Alamos National Laboratory) breached a sealed radioactive source containing ~2800 Ci of the radioactive isotope cesium-137 ( 137 Cs) at the University of Washington Harborview Research and Training (HRT) Building in downtown Seattle while attempting to recover the source for the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) Off-site Source Recovery Program (OSRP). The breach of the source resulted in the contamination of 13 personnel, all 7 floors of the building, and a release of material to the environment. A summary of root and contributing causes of the event was investigated and published by a joint investigation team (JIT) co-led by NNSA and Triad National Security, LLC. That investigation was supported by forensics examinations provided by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. This report summarizes the results of those forensic examinations.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Measurement of the top quark-antiquark pair charge asymmetry in events with highly boosted top quarks in proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV with the CMS detector

The top quark is the heaviest elementary particle, making it a unique tool to search for new physics. In this talk, I will present a new measurement of the top quark pair charge asymmetry for highly boosted top quarks decaying to a single lepton, missing transverse momentum and jets. The analysis is performed on 13TeV proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment during Run 2. We have defined a dedicated phase space that selects top quark-antiquark pairs with invariant mass greater than 750GeV in a semileptonic final state where the lepton is not necessarily isolated. This highly boosted sample is enhanced in valence quark production and thus expected to be more sensitive to deviations in the charge asymmetry caused by BSM processes. Dedicated tagging techniques are used to identify the decay products of hadronic top quarks and W bosons. An unfolding procedure is used to correct for detector resolution and acceptance, and inefficiencies in the event reconstruction. The result is presented in the full phase space at parton level and can be used as input to global EFT interpretations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Higgs event classification using Machine Learning

The Higgs boson is a fundamental particle in the Standard Model of particle physics, theorized in the 1960s and later discovered in 2012 at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). It plays a pivotal role in the mechanism of mass generation for other particles. This poster focuses on the application of Machine Learning algorithms to efficiently classify Higgs boson events.

Khan, Mysha Jahin↗

Understanding the Vertical Transport and Removal of Aerosols during Deep Convective Events

Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Globally, the free troposphere is a major source of nucleation- and Aitken-mode aerosols due to the enhanced new particle formation rates at high altitudes. Recent studies have shown deep convective systems are capable of transporting these small aerosols from the free troposphere to the boundary layer by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the stratiform regions. These vertically transported aerosols can grow into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and play a significant role in the global climate. During the deep convective processes, existing accumulation-mode aerosols that act as coagulation sinks of smaller particles are also removed by wet scavenging. Compared to the vertical transport of these particles by entrainment mixing, which is slower but more prevalent, the deep convective downdraft processes may be more rapid and efficient in the vertical transport of aerosols. However, most of the current climate models do not include this mechanism as a source of CCN, mainly because the frequency of deep convective events varies significantly with geographic location and thus their contributions to CCN are unpredictable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗