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At least 973 records · Page 54

Modeling Gravitational Radiation Waveforms from Black Hole Mergers

Gravitational radiation from merging binary black hole systems is anticipated as a key source for gravitational wave observations. Ground-based instruments, such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) may observe mergers of stellar-scale black holes, while the space-based Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) observatory will be sensitive to mergers of massive galactic-center black holes over a broad range of mass scales. These cataclysmic events may emit an enormous amount of energy in a brief time. Gravitational waves from comparable mass mergers carry away a few percent of the system's mass-energy in just a few wave cycles, with peak gravitational wave luminosities on the order of 10^23 L_Sun. Optimal analysis and interpretation of merger observation data will depend on developing a detailed understanding, based on general relativistic modeling, of the radiation waveforms. We discuss recent progress in modeling radiation from equal mass mergers using numerical simulations of Einstein's gravitational field equations, known as numerical relativity. Our simulations utilize Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) to allow high-resolution near the black holes while simultaneously keeping the outer boundary of the computational domain far from the black holes, and making it possible to read out gravitational radiation waveforms in the weak-field wave zone. We discuss the results from simulations beginning with the black holes orbiting near the system's innermost stable orbit, comparing the recent simulations with earlier "Lazarus" waveform estimates based on an approximate hybrid numerical/perturbative technique.

Baker, J. G.↗

Evaluating Summer-Time Ozone Enhancement Events in the Southeast United States

This study evaluates source attribution of ozone (O3) in the southeast US within O3 lamina observed by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) system during June 2013. This research applies surface-level and airborne in situ data and chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, simulations in order to quantify the impact of North American anthropogenic emissions, wildfires, lightning NOx, and background stratospheric transport on the observed O3 lamina. During the summer of 2013, two anomalous O3 layers were observed and evaluated: 1) a nocturnal near-surface enhancement and 2) a late evening elevated (3-6 km above ground level) O3 plume. A "brute force" zeroing method was applied in GEOS-Chem to quantify the impact of individual emission sources and transport pathways on the vertical distribution of O3 during the two observed lamina. These model simulations suggest that the nocturnal O3 enhancement on June 12, 2013 below 3 km was primarily due to wildfire emissions and the fact that daily maximum anthropogenic emission contributions occurred during these night-time hours. During the second case study it was predicted that above average contributions from background stratospheric transport was largely contributing to the O3 lamina observed on June 29, 2013 between 3-6 km. Further evaluation suggested that a stratospheric intrusion was likely the main source contributing to this O3 enhancement between 3-6 km. Supporting information from other models, remote-sensing observations, and ground-based airborne in situ data agree with the source attribution predicted by GEOS-Chem simulations for both case studies. Overall, this study demonstrates the dynamic atmospheric chemistry occurring in the southeast US and displays the various emission sources and transport processes impacting O3 enhancements at different vertical levels of the troposphere.

Laminates↗

A Systems Modeling Approach for Risk Management of Command File Errors

The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate risk management. Formal models can be used for risk based design and risk management. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.

probabilistic risk↗

Application of the Global Precipitation Forecast dataset for Global Landslide Forecasting System

Landslides are extremely damaging, pervasive and cause fatalities and economic impacts. Extreme rainfall events, coupled with inopportune surface conditions, are the primary triggers of landslides around the world. Forecasting landslide events represent an area of open research. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model has been created that provides near real-time dynamic landslide characterization using Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on prediction of landslides into future. This study considers how global precipitation forecast data compares to satellite rainfall at different spatiotemporal scales and outlines the potential for its use in landslide hazard prediction/forecasting system. NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Forecast model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The GEOS-Forecast model is initialized at 00 UTC and is evaluated with IMERG Early, using Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) precipitation product as a reference over contiguous United States (CONUS). Categorical and continuous statistics along with probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions are considered to assess the performance of the precipitation products, with a focus on landslide hotspots. Seasonality appears to influence the performance of both the GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early product. Moreover, the global comparison between the GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early is carried out in terms of percentile difference, correlation, and bias maps. For extreme rainfall events in regions such as Mekong, Colombia, and Tajikistan, GEOS-Forecast appears to resolve high rainfall relative to IMERG Early more frequently. Validation over landslide points reveal that for 24hr rainfall accumulations > 100mm, GEOS-Forecast and IMERG coincide. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early precipitation matches more closely for tropical cyclones than other types of storms. Overall, the performance varies with respect to location, rainfall intensities, and type of precipitation events.

Sana Khan↗

Coronae on Venus observations and models of origin

The Venera 15/16 spacecraft revealed a number of features of unknown origin including coronae, elongate to circular structures with a complex interior surrounded by an annulus of concentric ridges. Eighteen coronae were identified in Venera 15/16 data of Venus; an additional thirteen possible coronae are found in Pioneer Venus and Arecibo data. Coronae, with maximum widths of 160 to over 650 km, are found primarily in two clusters in the Northern Hemisphere located to the east and west of Ishtar Terra. Another possible cluster is located in Themis Regio in the Southern Hemisphere. The majority of coronae are at least partially raised less than 1.5 km above the surrounding region, and over half are partially surrounded by a peripheral trough. A sequence of events for coronae has been determined through mapping. Prior to corona formation, regional compression or extension creates bands of lineaments along which coronae tend to later form. During the early stages of corona formation, relatively raised topography is produced by uplift and volcanic construction. The evolution of coronae and their general characteristics have been compared to two models of corona origin: hotspots and sinking mantle diapirs. In the hotspot or rising mantle diapir model, heating and melting at depth create uplift at the surface. Uplift is accompanied by central extension, facilitating volcanism. Gravitational relaxation of the uplifted region follows producing the compressional features within the annulus and the peripheral trough. Both models can predict the major characteristics and evolutionary sequence of coronae. The sinking diapir model does predict an early-time low and central compression as well as broadening and shallowing of the peripheral trough with time, all of which are not observed at current data resolution. In addition, the sinking mantle diapir mode predicts more simultaneous formation of the high topography, annulus and trough unlike the hotspot or rising mantle diapir mode. High resolution Magellan data will be used to distinguish between the two models of corona origin.

Stofan, E. R.↗

Auroral energy deposition and neutral composition changes observed simultaneously by ESRO 4 and AE-C at different altitudes

Neutral composition data obtained simultaneously from ESRO 4 and AE-C during geomagnetically disturbed conditions at different altitudes (160 and 230 km) are used to investigate the atmospheric response to geomagnetic storms and to infer information regarding the excitation mechanism. The data are compared with a theoretical model that estimates the composition effects in terms of wind induced diffusion. A parametric study was conducted bearing on the influence of energy deposition at different altitudes and with varying latitudinal extent. In one of the observed events the composition effects at 160 km are substantially smaller than at 230 km for which we inferred by comparison with the theory that the energy mainly was deposited at 150 km altitude over a wide latitude range. Another event required energy deposition at somewhat lower altitudes near 120 km with a more localized energy source. Significant variations of the turbopause level were not necessary to explain the observed variations.

Trinks, H.↗

Modeling the Earth's radiation belts. A review of quantitative data based electron and proton models

The evolution of quantitative models of the trapped radiation belts is traced to show how the knowledge of the various features has developed, or been clarified, by performing the required analysis and synthesis. The Starfish electron injection introduced problems in the time behavior of the inner zone, but this residue decayed away, and a good model of this depletion now exists. The outer zone electrons were handled statistically by a log normal distribution such that above 5 Earth radii there are no long term changes over the solar cycle. The transition region between the two zones presents the most difficulty, therefore the behavior of individual substorms as well as long term changes must be studied. The latest corrections to the electron environment based on new data are outlined. The proton models have evolved to the point where the solar cycle effect at low altitudes is included. Trends for new models are discussed; the feasibility of predicting substorm injections and solar wind high-speed streams make the modeling of individual events a topical activity.

Vette, J. I.↗

Application of triggered lightning numerical models to the F106B and extension to other aircraft

The goal of the F106B Thunderstorm Research Program is to characterize the lightning environment for aircraft in flight. This report describes the application of numerical electromagnetic models to this problem. Topics include: (1) Extensive application of linear triggered lightning to F106B data; (2) Electrostatic analysis of F106B field mill data; (3) Application of subgrid modeling to F106B nose region, including both static and nonlinear models; (4) Extension of F106B results to other aircraft of varying sizes and shapes; and (5) Application of nonlinear model to interaction of F106B with lightning leader-return stroke event.

Ng, Poh H.↗

The human role in space (THURIS) applications study. Final briefing

The THURIS (The Human Role in Space) application is an iterative process involving successive assessments of man/machine mixes in terms of performance, cost and technology to arrive at an optimum man/machine mode for the mission application. The process begins with user inputs which define the mission in terms of an event sequence and performance time requirements. The desired initial operational capability date is also an input requirement. THURIS terms and definitions (e.g., generic activities) are applied to the input data converting it into a form which can be analyzed using the THURIS cost model outputs. The cost model produces tabular and graphical outputs for determining the relative cost-effectiveness of a given man/machine mode and generic activity. A technology database is provided to enable assessment of support equipment availability for selected man/machine modes. If technology gaps exist for an application, the database contains information supportive of further investigation into the relevant technologies. The present study concentrated on testing and enhancing the THURIS cost model and subordinate data files and developing a technology database which interfaces directly with the user via technology readiness displays. This effort has resulted in a more powerful, easy-to-use applications system for optimization of man/machine roles. Volume 1 is an executive summary.

Maybee, George W.↗

Spectral emissivity of cirrus clouds

The inference of cirrus cloud properties has many important applications including global climate studies, radiation budget determination, remote sensing techniques and oceanic studies from satellites. Data taken at the Parsons Kansas site during the FIRE II project are used for this study. On November 26 there were initially clear sky conditions gradually giving way to a progressively thickening cirrus shield over a period of a few hours. Interferometer radiosonde and lidar data were taken throughout this event. Two techniques are used to infer the downward spectral emittance of the observed cirrus layer. One uses only measurements and the other involves measurements and FASCODE III calculations. FASCODE III is a line-by line radiance/transmittance model developed at the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory.

Beck, Gordon H.↗

Proceedings of the Second NASA Formal Methods Symposium

This publication contains the proceedings of the Second NASA Formal Methods Symposium sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and held in Washington D.C. April 13-15, 2010. Topics covered include: Decision Engines for Software Analysis using Satisfiability Modulo Theories Solvers; Verification and Validation of Flight-Critical Systems; Formal Methods at Intel -- An Overview; Automatic Review of Abstract State Machines by Meta Property Verification; Hardware-independent Proofs of Numerical Programs; Slice-based Formal Specification Measures -- Mapping Coupling and Cohesion Measures to Formal Z; How Formal Methods Impels Discovery: A Short History of an Air Traffic Management Project; A Machine-Checked Proof of A State-Space Construction Algorithm; Automated Assume-Guarantee Reasoning for Omega-Regular Systems and Specifications; Modeling Regular Replacement for String Constraint Solving; Using Integer Clocks to Verify the Timing-Sync Sensor Network Protocol; Can Regulatory Bodies Expect Efficient Help from Formal Methods?; Synthesis of Greedy Algorithms Using Dominance Relations; A New Method for Incremental Testing of Finite State Machines; Verification of Faulty Message Passing Systems with Continuous State Space in PVS; Phase Two Feasibility Study for Software Safety Requirements Analysis Using Model Checking; A Prototype Embedding of Bluespec System Verilog in the PVS Theorem Prover; SimCheck: An Expressive Type System for Simulink; Coverage Metrics for Requirements-Based Testing: Evaluation of Effectiveness; Software Model Checking of ARINC-653 Flight Code with MCP; Evaluation of a Guideline by Formal Modelling of Cruise Control System in Event-B; Formal Verification of Large Software Systems; Symbolic Computation of Strongly Connected Components Using Saturation; Towards the Formal Verification of a Distributed Real-Time Automotive System; Slicing AADL Specifications for Model Checking; Model Checking with Edge-valued Decision Diagrams; and Data-flow based Model Analysis.

Munoz, Cesar↗

Numerical Validation of Composite Panel Impact Tests

Researchers have met the challenge of modeling impact events involving composite targets for a variety of applications in a variety of ways. In this paper, the theory and implementation details of an orthotropic visco-elastic-visco-plastic material model with strain rate dependence are discussed. The model is driven by experimental data from quasi-static as well as high strain rate tests, and the data is used in defining the deformation, damage and failure sub-models. Validation data is generated by shooting a hollow 50 g Al-2024 projectile at different velocities against a flat panel target made of unidirectional composite material in a 16-ply [(0/90/45/-45)_(2)]_(S) layup. Explicit dynamic finite element analyses of four high speed tests involving one contained (projectile rebounded) and three uncontained (projectile penetrated) impact tests show that the developed material model and modeling techniques yield reasonable and acceptable predictions.

Orthotropic Composite↗

Searching for Quasi-periodic Oscillations in Astrophysical Transients Using Gaussian Processes

Analyses of quasi-periodic oscillations(QPOs)are important to understanding the dynamic behavior in manyastrophysical objects during transient events like gamma-ray bursts, solarflares, magnetarflares, and fast radiobursts. Astrophysicists often search for QPOs with frequency-domain methods such as(Lomb–Scargle)periodograms, which generally assume power-law models plus some excess around the QPO frequency. Time-series data can alternatively be investigated directly in the time domain using Gaussian process(GP)regression.While GP regression is computationally expensive in the general case, the properties of astrophysical data andmodels allow fast likelihood strategies. Heteroscedasticity and nonstationarity in data have been shown to causebias in periodogram-based analyses. GPs can take account of these properties. Using GPs, we model QPOs as astochastic process on top of a deterministicflare shape. Using Bayesian inference, we demonstrate how to infer GPhyperparameters and assign them physical meaning, such as the QPO frequency. We also perform model selectionbetween QPOs and alternative models such as red noise and show that this can be used to reliablyfind QPOs. Thismethod is easily applicable to a variety of different astrophysical data sets. We demonstrate the use of this methodon a range of short transients: a gamma-ray burst, a magnetarflare, a magnetar giantflare, and simulated solarflare data.

Moritz Hubner↗

Leveraging Large Eddy Simulations to Characterize Aeroacoustic Environments on Launch Vehicles

NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) program has relied on multiple wind tunnel campaigns to predict expected aeroacoustic environments. Time, cost, Reynolds number matching, contamination from test section acoustics, and limitations in spatial resolution are all factors that impact the use experimental data for development of launch vehicle environments. Methodological and computational advances over the last decade are enabling scale resolving computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to be completed that can address some the challenges with conventional datasets, enabling more complete/accurate modeling of dynamic loading events on ascent. These simulations are classified as so-called "Large-Eddy Simulations" (LES). As the name implies, these simulations seek to directly resolve the turbulence in the largest, most-energetic turbulent structures, or eddies, and the dissipation of the smallest eddies in the flow field, is modeled. Like anything else, these simulations still must undergo rigorous testing and validation for the results to ultimately be trusted in the analysis of a launch vehicle. EV33 has begun to conduct some of this early-stage testing and validation to better support NASA missions in the future.

Jonathan Boustani↗

Black Hole Mergers as Probes of Structure Formation

Intense structure formation and reionization occur at high redshift, yet there is currently little observational information about this very important epoch. Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole (MBH) mergers can provide us with important clues about the formation of structures in the early universe. Past efforts have been limited to calculating merger rates using different models in which many assumptions are made about the specific values of physical parameters of the mergers, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a very wide range (0.1 - 104 mergers/year). Here we develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of MBH mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z 5 - 30 structure formation era. We do this by generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH mass, BH mass ratio, redshift, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This allows us to constrain the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our methodology works well at estimating merger parameters, consistently giving results within 1- of the input parameter values. We also discover that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models. This helps our method be robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach, which at this stage constitutes a proof of principle, can be readily extended to physical models and to more general problems in cosmology and gravitational wave astrophysics.

Alicea-Munoz, E.↗

Investigation of single-event upset (SEU) in an advanced bipolar process

An extensive analytical and experimental study SEU in an advanced silicon bipolar process was made. The modeling used process and device parameters to model the SEU charge, collection, and circuit response derived from a special version of PISCES in cylindrical coordinates and SPICE, respectively. Data are reported for test cells of various sizes.

Zoutendyk, John A.↗

Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Initial Evaluations of LoC Prediction Algorithms Using the NASA Vertical Motion Simulator

Flying near the edge of the safe operating envelope is an inherently unsafe proposition. Edge of the envelope here implies that small changes or disturbances in system state or system dynamics can take the system out of the safe envelope in a short time and could result in loss-of-control events. This study evaluated approaches to predicting loss-of-control safety margins as the aircraft gets closer to the edge of the safe operating envelope. The goal of the approach is to provide the pilot aural, visual, and tactile cues focused on maintaining the pilot's control action within predicted loss-of-control boundaries. Our predictive architecture combines quantitative loss-of-control boundaries, an adaptive prediction method to estimate in real-time Markov model parameters and associated stability margins, and a real-time data-based predictive control margins estimation algorithm. The combined architecture is applied to a nonlinear transport class aircraft. Evaluations of various feedback cues using both test and commercial pilots in the NASA Ames Vertical Motion-base Simulator (VMS) were conducted in the summer of 2013. The paper presents results of this evaluation focused on effectiveness of these approaches and the cues in preventing the pilots from entering a loss-of-control event.

Pilot Cue↗