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At least 973 records · Page 54

On the Viability of Video Imaging in Leak Rate Quantification: A Theoretical Error Analysis

Optical gas imaging through multispectral cameras is a promising technique for mitigation of methane emissions through localization and quantification of emissions sources. While more advanced cameras developed in recent years have led to lower uncertainties in measuring gas concentrations, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties associated with leak rate estimation have been overlooked. We present a systematic categorization of the involved uncertainties with a focus on a theoretical analysis of projection uncertainties that are inherent to this technique. The projection uncertainties are then quantified using Large Eddy Simulation experiments of a point source release into the atmosphere. Our results show that while projection uncertainties are typically about 5% of the emission rate, low acquisition times and observation of the gas plume at small distances from the emission source (<10 m) can amount to errors of about 20%. Further, we found that acquisition times on the order of tens of seconds are sufficient to significantly reduce (>50%) the projection uncertainties. These findings suggest robust procedures on how to reduce projection uncertainties, however, a balance between other sources of uncertainty due to operational conditions and the employed instrumentation are required to outline more practical guidelines.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Synthesis and analysis of precise spaceborne laser ranging systems, volume 1

Measurement accuracy goals of 2 cm rms range estimation error and 0.003 cm/sec rms range rate estimation error, with no more than 1 cm (range) static bias error are requirements for laser measurement systems to be used in planned space-based earth physics investigations. Constraints and parameters were defined for links between a high altitude, transmit/receive satellite (HATRS), and one of three targets: a low altitude target satellite, passive (LATS), and active low altitude target, and a ground-based target, as well as with operations with a primary transmit/receive terminal intended to be carried as a shuttle payload, in conjunction with the Spacelab program.

Paddon, E. A.↗

Analysis and forecast intercomparisons using the FGGE SOP-1 data base

The First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) data base has provided the research community with the most complete global coverage of meteorological informaiton since measurements were first taken. It is important to understand the characteristics of the FGGE data base in terms of its accuracy and representativeness compared to the true state of the atmosphere. The uncertainty associated with the initial conditions used in a numerical model plays a significant role in subsequent error growth as shown by predictability theory. The ultimate limit of forecast skill is directly related to the initial uncertainty. The accuracy of analyses using FGGE data base coupled with the errors due to modeling imperfections determines the present skill of numerical models. An estimte of initial uncertainty is determined by examining differences in several FGGE analyses. The estimate is then used to determine an ultimate limit of forecast skill from derived predictability error growth rates. Several different calculations of predictability error growth are also compared. Finally, present-day forecast skill using FGGE analyses is contrasted to the estimates of ultimate skill, and the partition of model error versus initial uncertainty is discussed.

Baumhefner, D. P.↗

Error growth in operational ECMWF forecasts

A parameterization scheme used at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting to model the average growth of the difference between forecasts on consecutive days was extended by including the effect of error growth on forecast model deficiencies. Error was defined as the difference between the forecast and analysis fields during the verification time. Systematic and random errors were considered separately in calculating the error variance for a 10 day operational forecast. A good fit was obtained with measured forecast errors and a satisfactory trend was achieved in the difference between forecasts. Fitting six parameters to forecast errors and differences that were performed separately for each wavenumber revealed that the error growth rate grew with wavenumber. The saturation error decreased with the total wavenumber and the limit of predictability, i.e., when error variance reaches 95 percent of saturation, decreased monotonically with the total wavenumber.

Kalnay, E.↗

Scaled CMOS Technology Reliability Users Guide

The desire to assess the reliability of emerging scaled microelectronics technologies through faster reliability trials and more accurate acceleration models is the precursor for further research and experimentation in this relevant field. The effect of semiconductor scaling on microelectronics product reliability is an important aspect to the high reliability application user. From the perspective of a customer or user, who in many cases must deal with very limited, if any, manufacturer's reliability data to assess the product for a highly-reliable application, product-level testing is critical in the characterization and reliability assessment of advanced nanometer semiconductor scaling effects on microelectronics reliability. A methodology on how to accomplish this and techniques for deriving the expected product-level reliability on commercial memory products are provided.Competing mechanism theory and the multiple failure mechanism model are applied to the experimental results of scaled SDRAM products. Accelerated stress testing at multiple conditions is applied at the product level of several scaled memory products to assess the performance degradation and product reliability. Acceleration models are derived for each case. For several scaled SDRAM products, retention time degradation is studied and two distinct soft error populations are observed with each technology generation: early breakdown, characterized by randomly distributed weak bits with Weibull slope (beta)=1, and a main population breakdown with an increasing failure rate. Retention time soft error rates are calculated and a multiple failure mechanism acceleration model with parameters is derived for each technology. Defect densities are calculated and reflect a decreasing trend in the percentage of random defective bits for each successive product generation. A normalized soft error failure rate of the memory data retention time in FIT/Gb and FIT/cm2 for several scaled SDRAM generations is presented revealing a power relationship. General models describing the soft error rates across scaled product generations are presented. The analysis methodology may be applied to other scaled microelectronic products and their key parameters.

Microelectronics Reliability↗

Adaptive data rate control TDMA systems as a rain attenuation compensation technique

Rainfall attenuation has a severe effect on signal strength and impairs communication links for future mobile and personal satellite communications using Ka-band and millimeter wave frequencies. As rain attenuation compensation techniques, several methods such as uplink power control, site diversity, and adaptive control of data rate or forward error correction have been proposed. In this paper, we propose a TDMA system that can compensate rain attenuation by adaptive control of transmission rates. To evaluate the performance of this TDMA terminal, we carried out three types of experiments: experiments using a Japanese CS-3 satellite with Ka-band transponders, in house IF loop-back experiments, and computer simulations. Experimental results show that this TDMA system has advantages over the conventional constant-rate TDMA systems, as resource sharing technique, in both bit error rate and total TDMA burst lengths required for transmitting given information.

Sato, Masaki↗

SU-D-207-05: Real-Time Intrafractional Motion Tracking During VMAT Delivery Using a Conventional Elekta CBCT System

Purpose: Real-time kV projection streaming capability has become recently available for Elekta XVI version 5.0. This study aims to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of real-time fiducial marker tracking during CBCT acquisition with or without simultaneous VMAT delivery using a conventional Elekta linear accelerator. Methods: A client computer was connected to an on-board kV imaging system computer, and receives and processes projection images immediately after image acquisition. In-house marker tracking software based on FFT normalized cross-correlation was developed and installed in the client computer. Three gold fiducial markers with 3 mm length were implanted in a pelvis-shaped phantom with 36 cm width. The phantom was placed on a programmable motion platform oscillating in anterior-posterior and superior-inferior directions simultaneously. The marker motion was tracked in real-time for (1) a kV-only CBCT scan with treatment beam off and (2) a kV CBCT scan during a 6-MV VMAT delivery. The exposure parameters per projection were 120 kVp and 1.6 mAs. Tracking accuracy was assessed by comparing superior-inferior positions between the programmed and tracked trajectories. Results: The projection images were successfully transferred to the client computer at a frequency of about 5 Hz. In the kV-only scan, highly accurate marker tracking was achieved over the entire range of cone-beam projection angles (detection rate / tracking error were 100.0% / 0.6±0.5 mm). In the kV-VMAT scan, MV-scatter degraded image quality, particularly for lateral projections passing through the thickest part of the phantom (kV source angle ranging 70°-110° and 250°-290°), resulting in a reduced detection rate (90.5%). If the lateral projections are excluded, tracking performance was comparable to the kV-only case (detection rate / tracking error were 100.0% / 0.8±0.5 mm). Conclusion: Our phantom study demonstrated a promising Result for real-time motion tracking using a conventional Elekta linear accelerator. MV-scatter suppression is needed to improve tracking accuracy during MV delivery. This research is funded by Motion Management Research Grant from Elekta.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Lagged average predictions in a predictability experiment

Lagged average predictions are examined here within the context of an idealized predictability experiment. Lagged predictions contribute to making better forecasts than the forecasts obtained from using only the latest initial state. Analytic models suggest that lagged predictions contribute the greatest amount when the error growth rates are small. Little dependence upon the magnitude of the intial error is found if the growth rates remain constant. It is also shown how lagged average forecasts can be used to predict the error. Discriminating forecasts made only when the error is predicted to be small are shown to have much better than average skill.

Roads, John O.↗

Performability modeling based on real data: A case study

Described is a measurement-based performability model based on error and resource usage data collected on a multiprocessor system. A method for identifying the model structure is introduced and the resulting model is validated against real data. Model development from the collection of raw data to the estimation of the expected reward is described. Both normal and error behavior of the system are characterized. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model system behavior. A reward function, based on the service rate and the error rate in each state, is then defined in order to estimate the performability of the system and to depict the cost of apparent types of errors.

Hsueh, M. C.↗

Performability modeling based on real data: A casestudy

Described is a measurement-based performability model based on error and resource usage data collected on a multiprocessor system. A method for identifying the model structure is introduced and the resulting model is validated against real data. Model development from the collection of raw data to the estimation of the expected reward is described. Both normal and error behavior of the system are characterized. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A reward function, based on the service rate and the error rate in each state, is then defined in order to estimate the performability of the system and to depict the cost of different types of errors.

Hsueh, M. C.↗

Clustering of tethered satellite system simulation data by an adaptive neuro-fuzzy algorithm

Recent developments in neuro-fuzzy systems indicate that the concepts of adaptive pattern recognition, when used to identify appropriate control actions corresponding to clusters of patterns representing system states in dynamic nonlinear control systems, may result in innovative designs. A modular, unsupervised neural network architecture, in which fuzzy learning rules have been embedded is used for on-line identification of similar states. The architecture and control rules involved in Adaptive Fuzzy Leader Clustering (AFLC) allow this system to be incorporated in control systems for identification of system states corresponding to specific control actions. We have used this algorithm to cluster the simulation data of Tethered Satellite System (TSS) to estimate the range of delta voltages necessary to maintain the desired length rate of the tether. The AFLC algorithm is capable of on-line estimation of the appropriate control voltages from the corresponding length error and length rate error without a priori knowledge of their membership functions and familarity with the behavior of the Tethered Satellite System.

Mitra, Sunanda↗

Flight research program. VI.

Correlation between heart rate, landing error and field of view for binocular and monocular sphere of vision of jet pilots

VISUAL FIELD↗

Analysis of the Continuous Stellar Tracking Attitude Reference (CSTAR) attitude rate processor

The Continuous Stellar Tracking Attitude Reference (CSTAR) system is an in-house project for Space Station to provide high accuracy, drift free attitude and angular rate information for the GN&C system. The outputs of the solid state star trackers are processed to provide attitude information; rate data is then derived from the attitude. Rate derivation is based on discrete time polynomial approximation techniques. This gives simple algorithms which allow for interpolation by other users. Attitude rate is modeled as a constant with low amplitude, low frequency sinusoids superimposed. The rate processor is parameterized to account for the effects of random errors, sample rate, data processing rate and perturbation frequency. The baseline system may be characterized as follows: the three sigma attitude accuracy is 0.01 degrees, the three sigma rate accuracy is 0.0001 degrees per second, the sample rate is 100 Hertz, the sampled signal is bandlimited to 0.5 Hertz, and the data processing rate is 10 Hertz. The above system requires a differentiator of length 127. This will track rate perturbations of frequencies less than 0.01 Hertz with low systematic errors.

Uhde-Lacovara, J.↗

Chip Advancer For GPS Receiver

Instrument errors made negligible. For each integration interval, both delay and rate of change of delay initialized to small fraction of chip - for example, to order of 10 to the negative 7th power - thereby making feedback control and extraction of delay highly accurate and flexible. With appropriate selection of sampling rate relative to chip rate, commensurability errors reduced to extremely small levels. In Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, pseudorandom code sequence generated by simple digital logic incorporating effects of time, delay, and rate of change of delay. Flexibility in starting time and sum interval very useful in aligning correlation interval with beginnings and endings of data bits.

Meehan, Thomas K.↗

Highly Reliable, High-Speed, Unidirectional Serial Data Links

Highly reliable, high-speed, unidirectional serial data-communication subsystems have been proposed to be installed in an upgrade of the computing systems aboard the space shuttles. The basic design concept of these serial data links is also adaptable to terrestrial use in applications in which there are requirements for highly reliable serial data communications. The hardware and software aspects of the architecture of the data links are dictated largely by a requirement, in the original space-shuttle application, for one computer to monitor the memory transactions and memory contents of other computers in real time with high reliability and without reliance on requests for retransmission. To minimize weight while affording a capability to transfer data at a required rate of 2.56 x 10(exp 8) bits per second, it was decided that the links would be serial ones of the fiber-channel type. [Fiber channel denotes a type of serial computer bus that is used to connect a computer (usually a supercomputer) with a high-speed data storage device. Depending on the specific application, the physical connection between the transmitter and receiver could be made via an optical fiber or a twisted pair of wires.] Heretofore, fiber-channel links have ordinarily been bidirectional and have operated under protocols that provide for receiving stations to detect errors and request retransmission when necessary. In the present case, the time taken by processing to request retransmission would conflict with the requirement for real-time transfer of data. To ensure reliability without retransmission, a link according to the proposal would utilize a modified version of the normal fiberchannel character set in conjunction with forward error correction by means of a Reed-Solomon code (see figure). The Reed-Solomon encoding and decoding and the translations between the normal and modified character sets would be effected by logic circuitry external to the fiber-channel transmitter and receiver, which would be commercial off-the-shelf units. The receiving end of the link could detect and correct errors at a rate as high as 4 million times per second, if necessary. The receiver detects uncorrectable double-byte errors. It has been estimated that uncorrectable-error rate would amount to one failure in about 10(exp 19) characters.

Cole, Robert M.↗

Optimizing Parameters for Deep-Space Optical Communication

A paper discusses the optimization of the parameters of a high-rate, deep-space optical communication link that utilizes pulse-position modulation (PPM) and an error-correcting code (ECC). The parameters in question include the PPM order (number of pulse time slots in one symbol period), the ECC rate, and the uncoded symbol error rate. In simple terms, the optimization problem is to choose the combination of these parameters that maximizes the throughput data rate at a given bit-error-rate (BER), subject to several constraints, including limits on the average and peak power and possibly a limit on the uncoded symbol error rate. This is a complex, multidimensional optimization problem, the solution of which involves computation of channel capacities for various combinations of the parameters. The paper presents extensive theoretical analyses and numerical predictions that elucidate the many facets of the optimization problem. It shows how a nearly optimum solution can be obtained by choosing the optimum PPM order for the desired number of bits per slot and concatenating the PPM mapping with an error-correction code so that the decoded bits satisfy some BER threshold.

Moison, Bruce↗

Human Error Analysis for Human-Rated Space Systems

Humans bring unique capabilities to space systems and contribute to mission success in a manner that cannot be matched by machines. Nevertheless, from time to time, human error can present a threat to system performance, and system designers must anticipate and manage this risk. NASA’s Human-Rating Requirements for Space Systems call for program managers to conduct a human error analysis (HEA) during system development but does not specify how to do this. In 2018, NASA’s Engineering and Safety Center asked the authors to develop a guidance document on HEA. The resulting position paper outlines a suggested method for HEA and makes it clear that error analysis is about identifying and mitigating problems at a system level, and not about finding fault with individuals. Error management strategies must be directed at error-producing conditions, thereby reducing the likelihood of human error, while retaining the positive contribution that humans make to system operations.

human error human-rated space↗