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At least 973 records · Page 54

Patterning the dorsal longitudinal flight muscles (DLM) of Drosophila: insights from the ablation of larval scaffolds

The six Dorsal Longitudinal flight Muscles (DLMs) of Drosophila develop from three larval muscles that persist into metamorphosis and serve as scaffolds for the formation of the adult fibers. We have examined the effect of muscle scaffold ablation on the development of DLMs during metamorphosis. Using markers that are specific to muscle and myoblasts we show that in response to the ablation, myoblasts which would normally fuse with the larval muscle, fuse with each other instead, to generate the adult fibers in the appropriate regions of the thorax. The development of these de novo DLMs is delayed and is reflected in the delayed expression of erect wing, a transcription factor thought to control differentiation events associated with myoblast fusion. The newly arising muscles express the appropriate adult-specific Actin isoform (88F), indicating that they have the correct muscle identity. However, there are frequent errors in the number of muscle fibers generated. Ablation of the larval scaffolds for the DLMs has revealed an underlying potential of the DLM myoblasts to initiate de novo myogenesis in a manner that resembles the mode of formation of the Dorso-Ventral Muscles, DVMs, which are the other group of indirect flight muscles. Therefore, it appears that the use of larval scaffolds is a superimposition on a commonly used mechanism of myogenesis in Drosophila. Our results show that the role of the persistent larval muscles in muscle patterning involves the partitioning of DLM myoblasts, and in doing so, they regulate formation of the correct number of DLM fibers.

Non-NASA Center↗

MSLICE Sequencing

MSLICE Sequencing is a graphical tool for writing sequences and integrating them into RML files, as well as for producing SCMF files for uplink. When operated in a testbed environment, it also supports uplinking these SCMF files to the testbed via Chill. This software features a free-form textural sequence editor featuring syntax coloring, automatic content assistance (including command and argument completion proposals), complete with types, value ranges, unites, and descriptions from the command dictionary that appear as they are typed. The sequence editor also has a "field mode" that allows tabbing between arguments and displays type/range/units/description for each argument as it is edited. Color-coded error and warning annotations on problematic tokens are included, as well as indications of problems that are not visible in the current scroll range. "Quick Fix" suggestions are made for resolving problems, and all the features afforded by modern source editors are also included such as copy/cut/paste, undo/redo, and a sophisticated find-and-replace system optionally using regular expressions. The software offers a full XML editor for RML files, which features syntax coloring, content assistance and problem annotations as above. There is a form-based, "detail view" that allows structured editing of command arguments and sequence parameters when preferred. The "project view" shows the user s "workspace" as a tree of "resources" (projects, folders, and files) that can subsequently be opened in editors by double-clicking. Files can be added, deleted, dragged-dropped/copied-pasted between folders or projects, and these operations are undoable and redoable. A "problems view" contains a tabular list of all problems in the current workspace. Double-clicking on any row in the table opens an editor for the appropriate sequence, scrolling to the specific line with the problem, and highlighting the problematic characters. From there, one can invoke "quick fix" as described above to resolve the issue. Once resolved, saving the file causes the problem to be removed from the problem view.

Crockett, Thomas M.↗

Satellite-Based Spatiotemporal Trends in PM2.5 Concentrations: China 2004-2013

Three decades of rapid economic development is causing severe and widespread PM2.5(particulate matter (is) less than 2.5 ) pollution in China. However, research on the health impacts of PM2.5 exposure has been hindered by limited historical PM2.5 concentration data. We estimated ambient PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to 2013 in China at 0.1 deg resolution using the most recent satellite data and evaluated model performance with available ground observations. We developed a two-stage spatial statistical model using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD) and assimilated meteorology, land use data, and PM2.5 concentrations from China's recently established ground monitoring network. An inverse variance weighting (IVW) approach was developed to combine MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue AOD to optimize data coverage. We evaluated model predicted PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to early 2014 using ground observations. The overall model cross-validation R(sup 2) and relative prediction error were 0.79 and 35.6%, respectively. Validation beyond the model year (2013) indicated that it accurately predicted PM(sub 2.5) concentrations with little bias at the monthly (R(sup 2) = 0.73), regression slope = 0.91) and seasonal (R(sup 2) = 0.79), regression slope = 0.92) levels. Seasonal variations revealed that winter was the most polluted season and that summer was the cleanest season. Analysis of predicted PM2.5 levels showed a mean annual increase of 1.97 micro-g/cu cm between 2004 and 2007 and a decrease of 0.46 micro-g/cu cm between 2008 and 2013. Our satellite-driven model can provide reliable historical PM2.5 estimates in China at a resolution comparable to those used in epidemiologic studies on the health effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure in North America. This data source can potentially advance research on PM2.5 health effects in China.

satellite remote sensing↗

Updated MISR Dark Water Research Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm - Part 1: Coupled 1.1 km Ocean Surface Chlorophyll a Retrievals with Empirical Calibration Corrections

As aerosol amount and type are key factors in the 'atmospheric correction' required for remote-sensing chlorophyll alpha concentration (Chl) retrievals, the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) can contribute to ocean color analysis despite a lack of spectral channels optimized for this application. Conversely, an improved ocean surface constraint should also improve MISR aerosol-type products, especially spectral single-scattering albedo (SSA) retrievals. We introduce a coupled, self-consistent retrieval of Chl together with aerosol over dark water. There are time-varying MISR radiometric calibration errors that significantly affect key spectral reflectance ratios used in the retrievals. Therefore, we also develop and apply new calibration corrections to the MISR top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance data, based on comparisons with coincident MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) observations and trend analysis of the MISR TOA bidirectional reflectance factors (BRFs) over three pseudo-invariant desert sites. We run the MISR research retrieval algorithm (RA) with the corrected MISR reflectances to generate MISR-retrieved Chl and compare the MISR Chl values to a set of 49 coincident SeaBASS (SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System) in situ observations. Where Chl(sub in situ) less than 1.5 mg m(exp -3), the results from our Chl model are expected to be of highest quality, due to algorithmic assumption validity. Comparing MISR RA Chl to the 49 coincident SeaBASS observations, we report a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.86, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.25, and a median absolute error (MAE) of 0.10. Statistically, a two-sample Kolmogorov- Smirnov test indicates that it is not possible to distinguish between MISR Chl and available SeaBASS in situ Chl values (p greater than 0.1). We also compare MODIS-Terra and MISR RA Chl statistically, over much broader regions. With about 1.5 million MISR-MODIS collocations having MODIS Chl less than 1.5 mg m(exp -3), MISR and MODIS show very good agreement: r = 0.96, MAE = 0.09, and RMSE = 0.15. The new dark water aerosol/Chl RA can retrieve Chl in low-Chl, case I waters, independent of other imagers such as MODIS, via a largely physical algorithm, compared to the commonly applied statistical ones. At a minimum, MISR's multi-angle data should help reduce uncertainties in the MODIS-Terra ocean color retrieval where coincident measurements are made, while also allowing for a more robust retrieval of particle properties such as spectral single-scattering albedo.

Limbacher, James A.↗

Fisher's Peak Ecological Forecasting - Mapping Biomass to Inform Conservation Planning of a Future State Park in Southern Colorado

Fisher’s Peak is a 77.5 km2 property southeast of Trinidad, Colorado that is planned to become Colorado’s newest state park. The area has experienced limited anthropogenic disturbance and is home to an abundance of unique habitats and species. A rapid, approximately 900 m change in elevation over the extent of the area nurtures a variety of plants and animals, including the endangered New Mexico meadow jumping mouse. In 2019, the State of Colorado obtained Fisher’s Peak with plans to make it Colorado’s second largest state park. A diverse group of collaborators, including the Colorado State Forest Service and The Nature Conservancy, worked closely to design the state park to maximize recreation opportunity while conserving the property’s rich habitats and biodiversity. The Fisher’s Peak Ecological Forecasting Team utilized Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys, in situ forest inventory data, and Earth observations from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR-2) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to quantify and map biomass over the extent of the study area. The results from modeling biomass had an out-of-bag root mean square error of 55 Mg/ha and an R2 of 12. The resulting map indicates areas where carbon storage on the property is high, informing decision-making processes for future park development. While more in situ training data may improve modeling capacity for biomass in the Fisher’s Peak area, this work represents a feasible attempt to better understand biomass distribution using earth observation

Lauren Lad↗

Fisher's Peak Ecological Forecasting: Mapping Biomass to Inform Conservation Planning of a Future State Park in Southern Colorado

Fisher’s Peak is a 77.5 km2 property southeast of Trinidad, Colorado that is planned to become Colorado’s newest state park. The area has experienced limited anthropogenic disturbance and is home to an abundance of unique habitats and species. A rapid, approximately 900 m change in elevation over the extent of the area nurtures a variety of plants and animals, including the endangered New Mexico meadow jumping mouse. In 2019, the State of Colorado obtained Fisher’s Peak with plans to make it Colorado’s second largest state park. A diverse group of collaborators, including the Colorado State Forest Service and The Nature Conservancy, worked closely to design the state park to maximize recreation opportunity while conserving the property’s rich habitats and biodiversity. The Fisher’s Peak Ecological Forecasting Team utilized Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys, in situ forest inventory data, and Earth observations from Landsat8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR-2) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to quantify and map biomass over the extent of the study area. The results from modeling biomass had an out-of-bag root mean square error of 55 Mg/ha and an R2 of 12. The resulting map indicates areas where carbon storage on the property is high, informing decision-making processes for future park development. While more in situ training data may improve modeling capacity for biomass in the Fisher’s Peak area, this work represents a feasible attempt to better understand biomass distribution using earth observation.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

Is the Adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Solar Photovoltaics (PVs) Interdependent or Independent? An Integrated EVs-PVs Modeling Framework

Transportation and residential energy consumption account for more than one-half of the overall energy consumption in the United States. Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) can play a key role in decarbonizing the transportation sector, while the adoption of renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaics or PVs) could bring similar benefits to the residential energy sector and in turn support transport electrification. Although the market share for both EVs and PVs continue to grow, both these emerging technologies are deployed rather disjoint without considering the existence of potential similarities among users who own (or aspire to own) EVs and PVs. This might be due to lack of understanding of the behavioral interdependence in consumer preferences towards these technologies. To fill this gap in knowledge, this study utilizes data from the 2018 WholeTraveler Transportation Behavior Study to develop an integrated model system that explores EV and PV adoption behaviors. A structural equations model (SEM) is employed that incorporates direct effects as well as error correlations among the adoption behaviors for EVs and PVs. Model results indicate that the adoption behavior for both these technologies is indeed interconnected and significantly influenced by attitudes, values and personality traits. Findings from this research suggest that incentives (e.g., subsidies) that drive 'bundled' adoption of EVs and PVs could accelerate the adoption of both these sustainable technologies. The results highlights the need to consider transport and building energy efficient technology adoption behavior in a single integrated structure.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Assessment of the Impact of Spatial Heterogeneity on Microwave Satellite Soil Moisture Periodic Error

An accurate temporal and spatial characterization of errors is required for the efficient processing, evaluation, and assimilation of remotely-sensed surface soil moisture retrievals. However, empirical evidence exists that passive microwave soil moisture retrievals are prone to periodic artifacts which may complicate their application in data assimilation systems (which commonly treat observational errors as being temporally white). In this paper, the link between such temporally-periodic errors and spatial land surface heterogeneity is examined. Both the synthetic experiment and site-specified cases reveal that, when combined with strong spatial heterogeneity, temporal periodicity in satellite sampling patterns (associated with exact repeat intervals of the polar-orbiting satellites) can lead to spurious high frequency spectral peaks in soil moisture retrievals. In addition, the global distribution of the most prominent and consistent 8-day spectral peak in the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System soil moisture retrievals is revealed via a peak detection method. Three spatial heterogeneity indicators - based on microwave brightness temperature, land cover types, and long-term averaged vegetation index - are proposed to characterize the degree to which the variability of land surface is capable of inducing periodic error into satellite-based soil moisture retrievals. Regions demonstrating 8-day periodic errors are generally consistent with those exhibiting relatively higher heterogeneity indicators. This implies a causal relationship between spatial land surface heterogeneity and temporal periodic error in remotely-sensed surface soil moisture retrievals.

Fangni Lei↗

Historical Aerospace Software Errors Categorized to Influence Fault Tolerance

Since the first use of computers in space and aircraft, software errors have occurred. These errors can manifest as loss-of-life or less catastrophically. As the demand for automation increases, software in mission or safety-critical systems should be designed to be tolerant to the most likely software faults. This paper categorizes a set of 55 historic aerospace software error incidents from 1962 to 2023 to determine trends of how and where automation is most likely to fail, behaving unexpectedly. A distinction between software producing unexpected (erroneous) output versus no output (failsilent) is introduced. Of the historical incidents analyzed, 85% were from software producing wrong output rather than simply stopping. Rebooting was found to be ineffective to clear erroneous behavior, and not reliable to recover from silent failures. Error origin was within the code/logic itself in 58% of cases, 16% from configurable data, 15% from unexpected sensor input, and 11% from command/operator input. A substantial forty percent (40%) of unexpected software behavior was indicated by the absence of code, arising from unanticipated situations and missing requirements, and 16% of incidents were subjectively deemed “unknown-unknowns”. No incidents were found to be the result of programming language, compiler, tool, or operating system; and only sixteen percent (16%) of all incidents were considered errors traditional computer science/programming in nature. These findings indicate that for fault tolerance, erroneous automation behavior must be a primary consideration especially at critical moments, and reboot recoverability may not be viable. Special care should be taken to validate configurable data and commands prior to use. “Test-like-you-fly”, including hardware-in-the-loop combined with robust off-nominal testing should be used to uncover missing logic arising from unanticipated situations not covered by requirements alone. This study uniquely focuses on manifestations of unexpected flight software behavior, independent of ultimate root cause. We characterize software error behavior and origin to improve software design, test, and operations for resilience to the most common manifestations, and provide a rich dataset for further study.

Aerospace↗

Exocentric judgements in real environments and stereoscopic displays

Spatial direction errors during interpretation of perspective images, such as 3D map displays, may originate from misjudgment of the orientation of the viewing direction used to make the display. One source of these errors could be perceptual evidence of the display surface. Two experiments are reported in which the same judgment exocentric task was presented, but the cues to the picture surface were reduced or eliminated by presenting the task as a stereoscopic, virtual image or by a geometrically matched physical model. A theory developed to model exocentric direction errors on perspective displays has been fitted to the data from these two experiments. The parameters estimated from the fit in both experiments indicate that the subjects may be more correctly estimating the viewing direction than in ordinary perspective displays. Consequently, in some real world or stereo viewing conditions, errors in estimating the viewing direction are not likely to dominate exocentric direction errors.

Ellis, Stephen R.↗

Evaluation of tactual displays for flight control

Manual tracking experiments were conducted to determine the suitability of tactual displays for presenting flight-control information in multitask situations. Although tracking error scores are considerably greater than scores obtained with a continuous visual display, preliminary results indicate that inter-task interference effects are substantially less with the tactual display in situations that impose high visual scanning workloads. The single-task performance degradation found with the tactual display appears to be a result of the coding scheme rather than the use of the tactual sensory mode per se. Analysis with the state-variable pilot/vehicle model shows that reliable predictions of tracking errors can be obtained for wide-band tracking systems once the pilot-related model parameters have been adjusted to reflect the pilot-display interaction.

Levison, W. H.↗

Estimating the Migrating Diurnal Tide Component of Mesospheric Water Vapor

This work presents a method for estimating the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) component of mesospheric H2O from observations of the temperature tide and zonal-mean H2O made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument. This work first shows that a 2D least-squares fit on SABER H2O yields an erroneous DW1 due to retrieval algorithm problems. Consequently, the adiabatic displacement method is used. Applying the method to SABER observations and comparing it with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) H2O observations reveals that the method reproduces the MLS-observed H2O DW1 component best in March and June over low-latitudes in the altitude range between 65 and 75 km where errors range between +5% and +20%. Applying the method for simulations using the Specified Dynamics—Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X) indicates that in the model, it is best only in March and not in June. Model simulations further showed that in March, theoretical errors due to the vertical advection assumption and aliasing are best at less than +13% for the low-latitudes and altitudes between 65 and 75 km. These results, therefore, lead to the conclusion that despite the errors in the vertical advection assumption and aliasing, the adiabatic displacement method performs best in estimating mesospheric H2O DW1 with SABER observations during both March equinox and June solstice over the low latitudes between 65 and 75 km. Results also show that SD-WACCM-X satisfactorily simulates the H2O DW1 magnitude and mechanisms only in the March equinox period.

h20↗

Study of self-interaction errors in density functional predictions of dipole polarizabilities and ionization energies of water clusters using Perdew-Zunger and locally scaled self-interaction corrected methods

Here, we studied the effects of self-interaction error (SIE) on the static dipole polarizabilities of water clusters modelled with three increasingly sophisticated, non-empirical density functional approximations (DFAs), viz. the local spin density approximation (LDA), the Perdew-Burke-Ernzherof (PBE) generalized-gradient approximation (GGA), and the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) meta-GGA, using the Perdew-Zunger self-interaction-correction (PZ-SIC) energy functional in the Fermi-Lowdin orbital SIC (FLO-SIC) framework. Our results show that while all three DFAs overestimate the cluster polarizabilities, the description systematically improves from LDA to PBE to SCAN. The self-correlation free SCAN predicts polarizabilities quite accurately with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.58 Bohr 3 with respect to coupled cluster singles and doubles (CCSD) values. Removing SIE using PZ-SIC correctly reduces the DFA polarizabilities, but over-corrects, resulting in underestimated polarizabilities in SIC-LDA, -PBE, and -SCAN. Finally, we applied a recently proposed local-scaling SIC (LSIC) method using a quasi self-consistent scheme and using the kinetic energy density ratio as an iso-orbital indicator. The results show that the LSIC polarizabilities are in excellent agreement with mean absolute error of 0.08 Bohr 3 for LSIC-LDA and 0.06 Bohr 3 for LSIC-PBE with most recent CCSD polarizabilities. Likewise, the ionization energy estimates as an absolute of highest occupied energy eigenvalue predicted by LSIC are also in excellent agreement with CCSD(T) ionization energies with MAE of 0.4 eV for LSIC-LDA and 0.04 eV for LSIC-PBE. The LSIC-LDA predictions of ionization energies are comparable to the reported GW ionization energies while the LSIC-PBE ionization energies are more accurate than reported GW results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tracking Smoke from a Prescribed Fire and its Impacts on Local Air Quality using Temporally Resolved GOES-16 ABI Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) was used to track a smoke plume from a prescribed fire in northeastern Virginia on 8 March 2020. Weather and atmospheric conditions created a favorable environment to transport the plume through the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland, metro areas in the afternoon and concentrate smoke near the surface, degrading air quality for several hours. ABI AOD with 5-min temporal resolution and 2-km spatial resolution definitively identified the timing and geographic extent of the plume during daylight hours. Comparison to AERONET AOD indicates that ABI AOD captured the relative change in AOD due to passage of the smoke, with a mean absolute error of 0.047. Ground-based measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) confirm deteriorations in air quality coincident with the progression of the smoke. Ceilometer aerosol backscatter profiles verify plume transport timing and indicate that smoke aerosols were well mixed in a shallow boundary layer. This event illustrates the advantages of using multiple datasets to analyze the impacts of aerosols on ambient air quality. Given the quickly evolving nature of the event over several hours, ABI AOD provided information for the public and decision-makers that was not available from any other source, including polar-orbiting satellite sensors. This study suggests that PM2.5 concentrations estimated from ABI AOD can be used to fill in the gaps in nationwide regulatory PM2.5 monitor networks and may be a valuable addition to EPA’s PM2.5 NowCast of current air quality conditions.

satellite observations↗

Investigating YAP’s role in Human Mammary Epithelial Cell (HMEC) Immortalization and Cancer Stem Cell (CSC) Phenotype Acquisition during Early Breast Cancer Progression

The malignant aspect of tumorigenesis in breast cancer is initiated when human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) first immortalize (gain the ability to proliferate indefinitely) and subsequently undergo oncogenic activation. Our laboratory has developed a two-step HMEC immortalization process that we believe accurately models early breast cancer progression. Normal finite pre-stasis HMEC must overcome two distinct senescence barriers to achieve full immortality: stasis (stress-associated senescence) and replicative senescence, respectively. HMEC bypass stasis, and become post-stasis, when errors in the retinoblastoma pathway are present. Replicative senescence, a product of continuously shortening telomeres producing telomere dysfunction, is overcome by the reactivation of telomerase. Our lab has called HMEC that acquire the error allowing telomerase expression conditionally immortal (CI); CI cells may still have low telomerase expression. Full immortality is achieved when sufficient telomerase expression exists to maintain short stable telomeres following a process we have called conversion. The transcriptional coactivator YAP, upregulated in several human cancers, is closely correlated with a variety of oncogenic effects including proliferation and induction of cancer stem cell (CSC) properties. Our preliminary data have shown that YAP-transduced post-stasis HMEC expressed properties of CI cells. Growth curves indicated that some cell lines achieved full immortality; however, these cells had acquired an additional error – amplified expression of c-Myc, an oncogene known to induce telomerase in post-stasis or CI cells. The absence of uniform immortalization in the YAP-transduced cells suggests that YAP causes post-stasis HMEC to become conditionally immortal. This is further supported given that YAP-transduced post-stasis HMEC have decreased levels of the lncRNA MORT and rapidly go through conversion when p53 function is abrogated, well-documented attributes of CI HMEC. Previous studies have also reported that YAP controls the differentiation of breast progenitor cells; as a result, it is likely that YAP plays a role in inducing CSC phenotypes. In this study, we attempt to gain a greater understanding of YAP’s role in HMEC immortalization and induction of CSC properties in early breast cancer progression. We measured gene expression levels and attempted to identify proteins indicative of a CSC phenotype in YAP-transduced post-stasis HMEC. Our initial results did not reveal an association between YAP and HMEC conditional immortality or induction of CSC attributes in the cultures examined. However, using a YAP construct that promotes nuclear localization (where YAP is most active) has led to a potentially promising YAP-derived cell line that we presume to be immortal. We go on to demonstrate that YAP may be acting via non-transcriptional oncogenic roles in our HMEC specimens. Thus, we recommend future studies into YAP and the HMEC immortalization process given that they are promising targets for breast cancer prevention therapies.

Shah, Manav↗

Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using a Global 5000 Test Aircraft - Part I

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory-prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. A small-jet field trial was conducted at Denver in the fall of 2010 with the objective of measuring trajectory prediction accuracy and quantifying the primary sources of error. This paper uses data collected onboard a Bombardier Global 5000 test aircraft to quantify the size and sources of trajectory prediction error. Error sources were quantified for the 44 runs by incrementally replacing predicted data with data collected onboard the aircraft and measuring the effect on time error. Results for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 60-120 nmi downstream, indicate that the aircraft arrived an average 15 seconds earlier than predicted, with a standard deviation of 10 seconds. Target Mach and CAS deceleration were found to be the two largest error sources. If CAS deceleration error was reduced using a typical, more predictable level flight deceleration then the arrival time prediction error in 2010 would be on par with a 2009 flight trial of Airbus and Boeing revenue flights. Four of the error sources, tracker jumps, CAS deceleration, target Mach, and path distance, lend themselves to significant reductions with modest to no changes to ATC automation andor procedures. Wind error and its impact on arrival time error was significantly reduced in 2010 compared to a 1994 flight test using NASAs Boeing 737 test aircraft.

Trajectory Prediction Error↗

Natural abundance deuterium and 18-oxygen effects on the precision of the doubly labeled water method

The doubly labeled water method for measuring total energy expenditure is subject to error from natural variations in the background 2H and 18O in body water. There is disagreement as to whether the variations in background abundances of the two stable isotopes covary and what relative doses of 2H and 18O minimize the impact of variation on the precision of the method. We have performed two studies to investigate the amount and covariance of the background variations. These were a study of urine collected weekly from eight subjects who remained in the Madison, WI locale for 6 wk and frequent urine samples from 14 subjects during round-trip travel to a locale > or = 500 miles from Madison, WI. Background variation in excess of analytical error was detected in six of the eight nontravelers, and covariance was demonstrated in four subjects. Background variation was detected in all 14 travelers, and covariance was demonstrated in 11 subjects. The median slopes of the regression lines of delta2H vs. delta18O were 6 and 7, respectively. Modeling indicated that 2H and 18O doses yielding a 6:1 ratio of final enrichments should minimize this error introduced to the doubly labeled water method.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Evaluation of a quasi-steady-state approximation of the cloud droplet growth equation (QDGE) scheme for aerosol activation in global models using multiple aircraft data over both continental and marine environments

This research introduces a numerically efficient aerosol activation scheme and evaluates it by using stratus and stratocumulus cloud data sampled during multiple aircraft campaigns in Canada, Chile, Brazil, and China. The scheme employs a quasi-steady-state approximation of the cloud droplet growth equation (QDGE) to efficiently simulate aerosol activation, the vertical profile of supersaturation, and the activated cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) near the cloud base. The calculated maximum supersaturation values using the QDGE scheme were compared with multiple parcel model simulations under various aerosol and environmental conditions. The differences are all below 0.18 %, indicating good performance and accuracy of the QDGE scheme. We evaluated the QDGE scheme by specifying observed environmental thermodynamic variables and aerosol information from 31 cloud cases as input and comparing the simulated CDNC with cloud observations. The average of mean relative error ($\overline{MRE}$) of the simulated CDNC for cloud cases in each campaign ranges from 17.30 % in Brazil to 25.90 % in China, indicating that the QDGE scheme successfully reproduces observed variations in CDNC over a wide range of different meteorological conditions and aerosol regimes. Additionally, we carried out an error analysis by calculating the maximum information coefficient (MIC) between the MRE and input variables for the individual campaigns and all cloud cases. MIC values were then sorted by aerosol properties, pollution level, environmental humidity, and dynamic condition according to their relative importance to MRE. Based on the error analysis, we found that the magnitude of MRE is more relevant to the specification of input aerosol pollution level in marine regions and aerosol hygroscopicity in continental regions than to other variables in the simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗