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Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Worst error analysis of batch filter and sequential filter in the approach phase of spacecraft navigation problems

The worst error performance of the sequential filter is compared with the performance of the batch filter which is still in general use in the deep space tracking. An approach phase of a spacecraft on a typical mission to the planet Mars is considered. The estimated parameters include the position and the speed of the spacecraft, nongravitational acceleration acting on the spacecraft, and the locations of the tracking stations.

Nishimura, T.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Statistics Analysis of the Uncertainties in Cloud Optical Depth Retrievals Caused by Three-Dimensional Radiative Effects

This paper presents a simple approach to estimate the uncertainties that arise in satellite retrievals of cloud optical depth when the retrievals use one-dimensional radiative transfer theory for heterogeneous clouds that have variations in all three dimensions. For the first time, preliminary error bounds are set to estimate the uncertainty of cloud optical depth retrievals. These estimates can help us better understand the nature of uncertainties that three-dimensional effects can introduce into retrievals of this important product of the MODIS instrument. The probability distribution of resulting retrieval errors is examined through theoretical simulations of shortwave cloud reflection for a wide variety of cloud fields. The results are used to illustrate how retrieval uncertainties change with observable and known parameters, such as solar elevation or cloud brightness. Furthermore, the results indicate that a tendency observed in an earlier study, clouds appearing thicker for oblique sun, is indeed caused by three-dimensional radiative effects.

Varnai, Tamas↗

DOE OSTI2023

BCS (CSP Beam Characterization System) [SWR-23-13]

The Beam Characterization System (BCS) is an image-processing tool for estimating heliostat tracking errors. A large mirror, or heliostat, reflects the sun onto a distant target. A carefully calibrated camera then takes an image of this target to capture the shape of the reflected beam. The software kit hosts a series of scripts to identify key features and run analysis on the captured images.

Kesseli, Devon↗

NASA NTRS1976

Surface chemistry of selected lunar regions

A completely new analysis has been carried out on the data from the Apollo 15 and 16 gamma ray spectrometer experiments. The components of the continuum background have been estimated. The elements Th, K, Fe and Mg give useful results; results for Ti are significant only for a few high Ti regions. Errors are given, and the results are checked by other methods. Concentrations are reported for about sixty lunar regions; the ground track has been subdivided in various ways. The borders of the maria seem well-defined chemically, while the distribution of KREEP is broad. This wide distribution requires emplacement of KREEP before the era of mare formation. Its high concentration in western mare soils seems to require major vertical mixing.

Bielefeld, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Surface chemistry of selected lunar regions

Bielefeld, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Simulation studies of wide and medium field of view earth radiation data analysis

A parameter estimation technique is presented to estimate the radiative flux distribution over the earth from radiometer measurements at satellite altitude. The technique analyzes measurements from a wide field of view (WFOV), horizon to horizon, nadir pointing sensor with a mathematical technique to derive the radiative flux estimates at the top of the atmosphere for resolution elements smaller than the sensor field of view. A computer simulation of the data analysis technique is presented for both earth-emitted and reflected radiation. Zonal resolutions are considered as well as the global integration of plane flux. An estimate of the equator-to-pole gradient is obtained from the zonal estimates. Sensitivity studies of the derived flux distribution to directional model errors are also presented. In addition to the WFOV results, medium field of view results are presented.

Green, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Analysis and application of minimum variance discrete linear system identification

An on-line minimum variance (MV) parameter identifier is developed which embodies both accuracy and computational efficiency. The formulation results in a linear estimation problem with both additive and multiplicative noise (AMN). The resulting filter which utilizes both the covariance of the parameter vector itself and the covariance of the error in identification is proven to be mean-square convergent and mean-square consistent. The MV parameter identification scheme is then used to construct a stable state and parameter estimation algorithm.

Kotob, S.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Cloud retrieval using infrared sounder data - Error analysis

An error analysis is presented for cloud-top pressure and cloud-amount retrieval using infrared sounder data. Rms and bias errors are determined for instrument noise (typical of the HIRS-2 instrument on Tiros-N) and for uncertainties in the temperature profiles and water vapor profiles used to estimate clear-sky radiances. Errors are determined for a range of test cloud amounts (0.1-1.0) and cloud-top pressures (920-100 mb). Rms errors vary by an order of magnitude depending on the cloud height and cloud amount within the satellite's field of view. Large bias errors are found for low-altitude clouds. These bias errors are shown to result from physical constraints placed on retrieved cloud properties, i.e., cloud amounts between 0.0 and 1.0 and cloud-top pressures between the ground and tropopause levels. Middle-level and high-level clouds (above 3-4 km) are retrieved with low bias and rms errors.

Wielicki, B. A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Figure control concepts for segmented reflector telescopes

Control analysis activities related to the development of figure control technologies for large space telescopes with precision segmented actively controlled primary reflectors are reviewed. The Precision Segmented Reflector (PSR) configuration is described along with the development and use of the PSR models. Geometric and dynamic models, characterization of figure estimation errors and optimal sensor placement, and the development of quasi-static and dynamic control concepts are outlined. The structure of a quasi-static controller is presented, that utilizes edge sensor measurements to estimate displacement errors at the actuator level and generates figure correction commands. The second approach considers decentralization of the reflector system at the panel level, while the third considers decentralization at the actuator level.

Boussalis, D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Parameter identification for nonlinear aerodynamic systems

Parameter identification for nonlinear aerodynamic systems is examined. It is presumed that the underlying model can be arranged into an input/output (I/O) differential operator equation of a generic form. The algorithm estimation is especially efficient since the equation error can be integrated exactly given any I/O pair to obtain an algebraic function of the parameters. The algorithm for parameter identification was extended to the order determination problem for linear differential system. The degeneracy in a least squares estimate caused by feedback was addressed. A method of frequency analysis for determining the transfer function G(j omega) from transient I/O data was formulated using complex valued Fourier based modulating functions in contrast with the trigonometric modulating functions for the parameter estimation problem. A simulation result of applying the algorithm is given under noise-free conditions for a system with a low pass transfer function.

Pearson, Allan E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The objectives are to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; implement satellite analysis procedures in support of this effort, and to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Composite satellite radiance patterns describe features detectable well before the development of synoptic scale tropical plumes. These typical features were extracted from historical files of Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations for a pair of tropical plumes which developed during January 1989. Signals were inserted into the NMC operational medium range forecast model and a suite of model integrations were conducted. Many of the 48 h model errors of the historical forecasts were eliminated by the inclusion of more complete satellite observations. Three studies in satellite radiance analysis progressed. An analysis which blended TOVS moisture channels, OLR observations and European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis to generate fields of total precipitable water comparable to those estimated from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) mu-wave observations. This study demonstrated that a 10 y climatology of precipitable water over the oceans is feasible, using available infrared observations (OLR and TOVS) and model analysis (ECMWF, NMC or similar quality). The estimates are sensitive to model quality and the estimating model must be updated with operational model changes. Coe developed a set of tropical plume and ITCZ composites from TOVS observations, and from NMC and ECMWF analyses which had been passed through a radiative transfer model to simulate TOVS radiances. The composites have been completed as well as many statistical diagnostics of individual TOVS channels. Analysis of the computations is commencing. Chung has initiated a study of the differences between TOVS observed vapor structure during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1983) and non-ENSO (1984) years. Preliminary diagnosis demonstrates gross moisture changes between warm and cold sea surface temperature episodes.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Deep-space navigation with differenced data types. Part 3: An expanded information content and sensitivity analysis

An approximate six-parameter analytic model for Earth-based differential range measurements is presented and is used to derive a representative analytic approximation for differenced Doppler measurements. The analytical models are tasked to investigate the ability of these data types to estimate spacecraft geocentric angular motion, Deep Space Network station oscillator (clock/frequency) offsets, and signal-path calibration errors over a period of a few days, in the presence of systematic station location and transmission media calibration errors. Quantitative results indicate that a few differenced Doppler plus ranging passes yield angular position estimates with a precision on the order of 0.1 to 0.4 micro-rad, and angular rate precision on the order of 10 to 25 x 10(exp -12) rad/sec, assuming no a priori information on the coordinate parameters. Sensitivity analyses suggest that troposphere zenith delay calibration error is the dominant systematic error source in most of the tracking scenarios investigated; as expected, the differenced Doppler data were found to be much more sensitive to troposphere calibration errors than differenced range. By comparison, results computed using wideband and narrowband (delta) VLBI under similar circumstances yielded angular precisions of 0.07 to 0.4 micro-rad, and angular rate precisions of 0.5 to 1.0 x 10(exp -12) rad/sec.

Estefan, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The short-term prediction of universal time and length of day using atmospheric angular momentum

The ability to predict short-term variations in the Earth's rotation has gained importance in recent years owing to more precise spacecraft tracking requirements. Universal time (UT1), that component of the Earth's orientation corresponding to the rotation angle, can be measured by number of high-precision space geodetic techniques. A Kalman filter developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) optimally combines these different data sets and generates a smoothed times series and a set of predictions for UT1, as well as for additional Earth orientation components. These UT1 predictions utilize an empirically derived random walk stochastic model for the length of the day (LOD) and require frequent and up-to-date measurements of either UT1 or LOD to keep errors from quickly accumulating. Recent studies have shown that LOD variations are correlated with changes in the Earth's axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) over timescales of several years down to as little as 8 days. AAM estimates and forecasts out to 10 days are routinely available from meteorological analysis centers; these data can supplement geodetic measurements to improve the short-term prediction of LOD and have therefore been incorporated as independent data types in the JPL Kalman filter. We find that AAM and, to a lesser extent, AAM forecast data are extremely helpful in generating accurate near-real-time estimates of UT1 and LOD and in improving short-term predictions of these quantities out to about 10 days.

Freedman, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Estimation of Soil Moisture Profile using a Simple Hydrology Model and Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

Soil moisture is an important component of analysis in many Earth science disciplines. Soil moisture information can be obtained either by using microwave remote sensing or by using a hydrologic model. In this study, we combined these two approaches to increase the accuracy of profile soil moisture estimation. A hydrologic model was used to analyze the errors in the estimation of soil moisture using the data collected during Huntsville '96 microwave remote sensing experiment in Huntsville, Alabama. Root mean square errors (RMSE) in soil moisture estimation increase by 22% with increase in the model input interval from 6 hr to 12 hr for the grass-covered plot. RMSEs were reduced for given model time step by 20-50% when model soil moisture estimates were updated using remotely-sensed data. This methodology has a potential to be employed in soil moisture estimation using rainfall data collected by a space-borne sensor, such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, if remotely-sensed data are available to update the model estimates.

Soman, Vishwas V.↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Critical Look at Coulomb Counting Approach for State of Charge Estimation in Batteries

In this paper, we consider the problem of state-of-charge estimation for rechargeable batteries. Coulomb counting is a well-known method for estimating the state of charge, and it is regarded as accurate as long as the battery capacity and the beginning state of charge are known. The Coulomb counting approach, on the other hand, is prone to inaccuracies from a variety of sources, and the magnitude of these errors has not been explored in the literature. We formally construct and quantify the state-of-charge estimate error during Coulomb counting due to four types of error sources: (1) current measurement error; (2) current integration approximation error; (3) battery capacity uncertainty; and (4) timing oscillator error/drift. It is demonstrated that the state-of-charge error produced can be either time-cumulative or state-of-charge-proportional. Time-cumulative errors accumulate over time and have the potential to render the state-of-charge estimation utterly invalid in the long term. The proportional errors of the state of charge rise with the accumulated state of charge and reach their worst value within one charge/discharge cycle. The study presents methods for reducing time-cumulative and state-of-charge-proportional mistakes through simulation analysis.

Battery management system↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Envisioning the Future of International Earth Observations Collaboration: Area and Map Accuracy Estimation by Sampling

- Maps have errors, sometimes a lot of errors ⇒ obtaining information directly from map problematic; any use of the map will benefit from information about errors/uncertainty - IPCC: unbiasedness and uncertainty - By randomly drawing a sample from the study area, observing reference conditions at drawn locations, and constructing estimators – easily estimate areas and map accuracy ± uncertainty - Sampling design and analysis, relatively easy – collecting reference observations is not. Cloud-based solutions, e.g. AREA2, Collect Earth Online, facilitate the collection of reference observations - More research and guidance needed!

Pontus Olofsson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Performance Maneuver Planning for NASA’s X-57 “Maxwell” Flight Demonstrator – Part 2: Power-On Effects

Distributed Electric Propulsion technology as envisioned for NASA’s X-57 “Maxwell” flight demonstrator concept was designed to increase high-speed cruise efficiency compared to a combustion-powered general aviation baseline. A portion of this increased efficiency was due to beneficial aero-propulsive interaction inherent to the distributed propulsion architecture. The measure of the increase in efficiency between a conventional and distributed propulsion wing was to be determined by comparing flight test data from the electrically powered, conventional wing X-57 Mod II configuration to data obtained from the electrically powered, distributed propulsion wing X-57 Mod III/IV configuration. Flight test maneuvers that accommodate errors in instrumentation and the flight test environment were previously developed to establish the power-off drag characteristics for all X-57 configurations. In this paper, test points and maneuvers are evaluated to establish the installed and gross thrust that build upon the power-off drag estimates. Analysis of the proposed power-on maneuvers shows that the selected test points and measurement techniques could generate installed thrust estimates within 3-7% (at the 50% confidence level) of the actual values if each maneuver is conducted over a time period of 40 seconds.

Nicholas K Borer↗