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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tropospheric aerosols over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the winter and summer deployments of ACTIVATE 2020: life cycle, transport, and distribution

The Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) is a NASA mission to characterize aerosol–cloud interactions over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO). Such characterization requires understanding of life cycle, composition, transport pathways, and distribution of aerosols over the WNAO. This study uses the GEOS-Chem model to simulate aerosol distributions and properties that are evaluated against aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations during the winter and summer field deployments in 2020 of ACTIVATE. Transport in the boundary layer (BL) behind cold fronts was a major mechanism for the North American continental outflow of pollution to the WNAO in winter. Turbulent mixing was the main driver for the upward transport of sea salt within and ventilation out of BL in winter. The BL aerosol composition was dominated by sea salt, which increased in the summer, followed by organics and sulfate. Aircraft in situ aerosol measurements provided useful constraints on wet scavenging in GEOS-Chem. The model generally captured observed features such as continental outflow, land–ocean gradient, and mixing of anthropogenic aerosols with sea salt. Model sensitivity experiments with elevated smoke injection heights to the mid-troposphere (versus within BL) better reproduced observations of smoke aerosols from the western US wildfires over the WNAO in the summer. Model analysis suggests strong hygroscopic growth of sea salt particles and their seeding of marine BL clouds over the WNAO (< 35° N). Future modeling efforts should focus on improving parameterizations for aerosol wet scavenging, implementing realistic smoke injection heights, and applying high-resolution models that better resolve vertical transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multilayered Network Models for Security: Enhancing System Security Engineering with Orchestration

Security engineering approaches can often focus on a particular domain—physical security, cyber security, or personnel security, for example. Yet, security systems engineering consistently faces challenges requiring socio-technical solutions to address evolving and dynamic complexity. While some drivers of this complexity stem from complex risk environments, innovative adversaries, and disruptive technologies, other drivers are endogenous and emerge from the interactions across security engineering approaches. In response, INCOSE's Systems Security Working Group identified the need to better coordinate “disparate security solutions [that] operate independently” as one of eleven key concepts in their IS21 FuSE Security Roadmap. From this perspective, this need for “security orchestration” aligns with the perspective that security is a property that emerges from interactions within complex systems. Current efforts at Sandia National Laboratories are developing a systems security engineering approach that describes high consequence facility (HCF) security as a multidomain set of interacting layers. The result is a multilayered network (MLN)-based approach that captures the interactions between infrastructure, physical components, digital components, and humans in nuclear security systems. This article will summarize the MLN-based approach to HCF security and describe two preliminary results demonstrating potential benefits from incorporating interactions across disparate security solutions. Here, leveraging the logical structure of networks, this MLN model-based approach provides an example of how security orchestration provides enhanced systems security engineering solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) Campaign

The science of mountainous hydrology spans the atmosphere through the bedrock and inherently crosses physical and disciplinary boundaries: land-atmosphere interactions in complex terrain enhance clouds and precipitation, while watersheds retain and release water over a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Limited observations in complex terrain challenge efforts to improve predictive models of the hydrology in the face of rapid changes. The Upper Colorado River exemplifies these challenges, especially with ongoing mismatches between precipitation, snowpack, and discharge. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has deployed an observatory to the East River Watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado between September 2021 and June 2023 to measure the main atmospheric drivers of water resources, including precipitation, clouds, winds, aerosols, radiation, temperature and humidity. This effort, called the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL), is also working in tandem with DOE-sponsored surface and subsurface hydrologists and other federal, state, and local partners. SAIL data can be benchmarks for model development by producing a wide range of observational information on precipitation and its associated processes, including those processes that impact snowpack sublimation and redistribution, aerosol direct radiative effects in the atmosphere and in the snowpack, aerosol impacts on clouds and precipitation, and processes controlling surface fluxes of energy and mass. Preliminary data from SAIL’s first year showcase the rich information content in SAIL’s many data-streams and support testing hypotheses that will ultimately improve scientific understanding and predictability of Upper Colorado River hydrology in 2023 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Phylogenetic Conservatism in Plant Phenology

Phenological events defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing 4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the set of included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrasting mean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of year that is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses.Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conserved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species' shared evolutionary histories.

phylogenetic conservatism↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermally driven surface phase separation in intermetallic alloys

Intermetallic compounds are widely recognized for their high-temperature phase stability and resistance to composition and structural changes. However, we reveal athermally activated bulk-to-surface mass exchange mechanism that drives surface phase separation, resulting in the formation of surface precipitates with distinct composition andstructure from the bulk matrix. Using the archetypal β-NiAl system, we show that asymmetries in vacancy formation energies between Ni and Al atoms induce preferential Ni segregation to the surface, forming Ni-rich γ'-Ni 3 Al precipitates. By integrating in-situ electron microscopy, synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy and first-principles computational modeling, we establish a direct mechanistic connection between bulk thermal defect dynamics, surface compositional evolution, and phase segregation behavior. This bulk-surface coupling mechanism can be a driver of surface phase separation in multicomponent alloys under thermal stress. In conclusion, these results refine the thermodynamic boundaries of intermetallic stability and provide insights into managingthe performance and durability of intermetallic alloys for demanding high-temperature applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1990

Two-component model of strong Langmuir turbulence - Scalings, spectra, and statistics of Langmuir waves

A simple two-component model of strong turbulence that makes clear predictions for the scalings, spectra, and statistics of Langmuir waves is developed. Scalings of quantities such as energy density, power input, dissipation power wave collapse, and number density of collapsing objects are investigated in detail and found to agree well with model predictions. The nucleation model of wave-packet formation is strongly supported by the results. Nucleation proceeds with energy flowing from background to localized states even in the absence of a driver. Modulational instabilities play little or no role in maintaining the turbulent state when significant density nonuniformities are present.

Robinson, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Inner Magnetospheric Electric Fields Derived from IMAGE EUV

The local and global patterns of plasmaspheric plasma transport reflect the influence of electric fields imposed by all sources in the inner magnetosphere. Image sequences of thermal plasma G:istribution obtained from the IMAGE Mission Extreme Ultraviolet Imager can be used to derive plasma motions and, using a magnetic field model, the corresponding electric fields. These motions and fields directly reflect the dynamic coupling of injected plasmasheet plasma and the ionosphere, in addition to solar wind and atmospheric drivers. What is being learned about the morphology of inner magnetospheric electric fields during storm and quite conditions from this new empirical tool will be presented and discussed.

Gallagher, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Interannual Variability of Tropospheric Trace Gases and Aerosols: The Role of Biomass Burning Emissions

Fires are responsible for a range of gaseous and aerosol emissions. However, their influence on the interannual variability of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols has not been systematically investigated from a global perspective. We examine biomass burning emissions as a driver of interannual variability of large-scale abundances of short-lived constituents such as carbon monoxide (CO), hydroxyl radicals (OH), ozone and aerosols using the GISS ModelE composition-climate model and a range of observations, with an emphasis on satellite information. Our model captures the observed variability of the constituents examined in most cases, but with substantial underestimates in boreal regions. The strongest interannual variability on a global scale is found for carbon monoxide (10 for its global annual burden), while the lowest is found for tropospheric ozone (10 for its global annual burden). Regionally, aerosol optical depth shows variability that exceeds 50. Areas of strong variability include the tropical land regions and northern high latitudes, while even regions in the northern midlatitudes experience substantial inteannual variability of aerosols. Ozone variability peaks over Equatorial Asia in boreal autumn, partly due to varying biomass burning emissions, and over the western and central Pacific in the rest of the year, mainly due to meteorological fluctuations. We find that biomass burning emissions are almost entirely responsible for global CO interannual variability, and similarly important for OH variability. The same is true for global and regional aerosol variability, especially when not taking into account dust and sea-salt particles. We show that important implications48 can arise from such interannual influences for regional climate and air quality.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2020

Historical Total Ozone Radiative Forcing Derived from CMIP6 Simulations

Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to present-day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (200530 -2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m-2 [0.08 to 0.61] (5-95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m-2 [0.27 to 0.51] (533 - 95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.

ozone↗
DOE OSTI2021

USAMP Low-Cost Mg Sheet Component Development and Demonstration Project

The overarching objective of this USAMP project was to develop and demonstrate door panels made from magnesium (Mg) sheet with a cost penalty over conventional steel stampings of no more than $\$5.50$/kg saved. The technical approach integrated experiments with advanced computational tools based on Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) methods to develop new alloy chemistries and their thermomechanical processing that promise improved formability and lower forming temperatures. A penultimate task before finally forming the stampings was to incorporate actual microstructure into models that would enable formability simulations. This approach would, for the first time, account for individual magnesium grains moving in an anisotropic fashion unlike that for aluminum or steel that have isotropic properties upon which the current simulation tools are based. In separate activities, new coatings and lubricants to facilitate forming and improved corrosion protection and joining strategies, were developed to ensure that the door could be produced with stated product requirements. A technical cost model, which included parts production, assembly, and paint for a door specifically designed for Mg sheet, showed the cost penalty to be between $\$4.26$ to $\$6.60$/kg saved, which enveloped the project’s cost targets. The cost of the coated Mg sheet was identified as the key driver for the cost penalty. The mass of the Mg-intensive door was 7.9 kg, which was 54% less than the baseline steel door.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemical templates of the Central Molecular Zone

Context . The Central Molecular Zone (CMZ) of the Milky Way exhibits extreme conditions, including high gas densities, elevated temperatures, enhanced cosmic-ray ionization rates, and large-scale dynamics. This makes it a perfect laboratory for astrochemical studies. With large-scale molecular surveys revealing increasing chemical and physical complexity in the CMZ, it is essential to develop robust methods to decode the chemical information embedded in this extreme region. Aims . A key step to interpreting the molecular richness found in the CMZ is building chemical templates tailored to its diverse conditions. In particular, understanding how CMZ environments affect shock and protostellar chemistry is crucial. The combined impact of high ionization, elevated temperatures, and dense gas remains insufficiently explored for observable tracers. Methods . For this study, we utilized UCLCHEM , a gas-grain time-dependent chemical model, to link physical conditions with their corresponding molecular signatures and identify key tracers of temperature, density, ionization, and shock activity. To achieve this, we ran a grid of models of shocks and protostellar objects representative of typical CMZ conditions, focusing on 24 species, including complex organic molecules. Results . Shocked and protostellar environments show distinct evolutionary timescales (≲10 4 vs. ≳10 4 years); 300 K emerges as a key temperature threshold for chemical differentiation. We find that cosmic-ray ionization and temperature are the main drivers of chemical trends. HCO + , H 2 CO, and CH 3 SH trace ionization, while HCO, HCO + , CH 3 SH, CH 3 NCO, and HCOOCH 3 show consistent abundance contrasts between shocks and protostellar regions over similar temperature ranges. Conclusions . We characterized the behavior of 24 species in protostellar and shock-related environments. While our models underpredict some complex organics in shocks, they reproduce observed trends for most species, supporting scenarios involving a need for recurring shocks in Galactic Center clouds and enhanced ionization toward Sgr B2(N2). Future work should assess the role of shock recurrence and metallicity in shaping chemistry.

Galaxy: center↗
NASA NTRS2019

Disentangling the Drivers of the Summertime Ozone‐Temperature Relationship Over the United States

Summertime surface-level ozone (O3 ) is known to vary with temperature, but the relative roles of different processes responsible for causing the O3 -temperature relationship are not well quantified. In this study we use simulations of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM) to isolate and assess the relative impact of atmospheric transport, chemistry, and emissions on O3 variability, events, and its correlation with temperature. Using observations from CASTNet in the contiguous United States, we show that the GMI CTM reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of O3 and the O3 -temperature relationship during the summer. We primarily focus on the total change in O3 due to a change in temperature (d O3 /d T). In regions with strong positive correlations between temperature and O3 such as the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Great Plains, temperature's association with transport primarily drives d O3 /d T with smaller contributions from temperature-dependent chemistry and anthropogenic emissions. There are regions, however, with near-zero correlation between temperature and O3 , and our findings suggest that transport is still an important driver of O3 variability in these regions, albeit not correlated with temperature. Transport is not directly dependent on temperature but rather is linked through an indirect association, and it is therefore important to understand the exact mechanisms that link transport to O3 and how these mechanisms will change in a warming world.

ozone, temperature, CTM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Saccharomycotina yeasts defy long-standing macroecological patterns

The Saccharomycotina yeasts (“yeasts” hereafter) are a fungal clade of scientific, economic, and medical significance. Yeasts are highly ecologically diverse, found across a broad range of environments in every biome and continent on earth; however, little is known about what rules govern the macroecology of yeast species and their range limits in the wild. Here, we trained machine learning models on 12,816 terrestrial occurrence records and 96 environmental variables to infer global distribution maps at ~1 km2 resolution for 186 yeast species (~15% of described species from 75% of orders) and to test environmental drivers of yeast biogeography and macroecology. We found that predicted yeast diversity hotspots occur in mixed montane forests in temperate climates. Diversity in vegetation type and topography were some of the greatest predictors of yeast species richness, suggesting that microhabitats and environmental clines are key to yeast diversity. We further found that range limits in yeasts are significantly influenced by carbon niche breadth and range overlap with other yeast species, with carbon specialists and species in high-diversity environments exhibiting reduced geographic ranges. Finally, yeasts contravene many long-standing macroecological principles, including the latitudinal diversity gradient, temperature-dependent species richness, and a positive relationship between latitude and range size (Rapoport’s rule). These results unveil how the environment governs the global diversity and distribution of species in the yeast subphylum. These high-resolution models of yeast species distributions will facilitate the prediction of economically relevant and emerging pathogenic species under current and future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2020

An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty

As two of the highest trending green technologies, photovoltaic panels and green roofs are proven to be effective practices for energy generation and energy saving. The achievable impact from the widespread installation of such technologies is, however, not clearly established. This is mainly because the degree of this impact highly depends on the inherently uncertain environmental and climate factors, as well as the unknown adoption rates of these technologies, which in turn depend on different characteristics of decision makers and interactions among them. To that end, this study aims to investigate the diffusion rate of these green technologies under uncertainties caused by climate change, characteristics of adopters, and their interactions. An integrated framework is developed to capture the interplay between financial and attitudinal aspects, as well as the uncertainties due to both the stochastic nature of system parameters and the interactions among agents involving human beings. Specifically, this framework consists of a integer programming model to optimize the green roof and/or photovoltaic panel installation settings for a given building under climate change uncertainty, and an agent-based model to factor in the role of human behavior and interactions. A case study for the city of Knoxville, TN, is presented to evaluate the effects of different policies on the diffusion rate of the green technologies of interest. The results show that the affordability of green technologies and public awareness are the key drivers of the adoption of these technologies, which highlight the important role of the decision makers in impacting the diffusion rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗