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At least 973 records · Page 54

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. Furthermore, the combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phylogenetic diversity, trichothecene potential, and pathogenicity within Fusarium sambucinum species complex

The Fusarium sambucinum species complex (FSAMSC) is one of the most taxonomically challenging groups of fusaria, comprising prominent mycotoxigenic plant pathogens and other species with various lifestyles. Among toxins produced by members of the FSAMSC, trichothecenes pose the most significant threat to public health. Herein a global collection of 171 strains, originating from diverse hosts or substrates, were selected to represent FSAMSC diversity. This strain collection was used to assess their species diversity, evaluate their potential to produce trichothecenes, and cause disease on wheat. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses of a combined 3-gene dataset used to infer evolutionary relationships revealed that the 171 strains originally received as 48 species represent 74 genealogically exclusive phylogenetically distinct species distributed among six strongly supported clades: Brachygibbosum, Graminearum, Longipes, Novel, Sambucinum, and Sporotrichioides. Most of the strains produced trichothecenes in vitro but varied in type, indicating that the six clades correspond to type A, type B, or both types of trichothecene-producing lineages. Furthermore, five strains representing two putative novel species within the Sambucinum Clade produced two newly discovered type A trichothecenes, 15-keto NX-2 and 15-keto NX-3. Strains of the two putatively novel species together with members of the Graminearum Clade were aggressive toward wheat when tested for pathogenicity on heads of the susceptible cultivar Apogee. In planta, the Graminearum Clade strains produced nivalenol or deoxynivalenol and the aggressive Sambucinum Clade strains synthesized NX-3 and 15-keto NX-3. Other strains within the Brachygibbosum, Longipes, Novel, Sambucinum, and Sporotrichioides Clades were nonpathogenic or could infect the inoculated floret without spreading within the head. Moreover, most of these strains did not produce any toxin in the inoculated spikelets. These data highlight aggressiveness toward wheat appears to be influenced by the type of toxin produced and that it is not limited to members of the Graminearum Clade.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Real-Time Edge AI for Distributed Systems (READS): Progress on Beam Loss De-Blending for the Fermilab Main Injector and Recycler

The Fermilab Main Injector enclosure houses two accelerators, the Main Injector and Recycler. During normal operation, high intensity proton beams exist simultaneously in both. The two accelerators share the same beam loss monitors (BLM) and monitoring system. Beam losses in the Main Injector enclosure are monitored for tuning the accelerators and machine protection. Losses are currently attributed to a specific machine based on timing. However, this method alone is insufficient and often inaccurate, resulting in more difficult machine tuning and unnecessary machine downtime. Machine experts can often distinguish the correct source of beam loss. This suggests a machine learning (ML) model may be producible to help de-blend losses between machines. Work is underway as part of the Fermilab Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems Project (READS) to develop a ML empowered system that collects streamed BLM data and additional machine readings to infer in real-time, which machine generated beam loss.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Insight into Strong QCD and the Emergence of Mass from N* Experiments

Studies of nucleon resonance (N*) electroexcitation amplitudes (?vpN* electrocouplings) within a broad range of virtual photon four-momentum squared Q2 offer unique information on many facets of the strong interaction in the regime of large QCD running coupling (sQCD regime) seen in the generation of different resonances. The results on the ?vpN* electrocouplings from exclusive meson electroproduction data measured with the CLAS detector at JLab and their impact on understanding of sQCD dynamics will be presented in this talk. These CLAS data have provided the first and only available results on the evolution of the ?vpN* electrocouplings with Q2 to 5 GeV2 for most N* states in the mass range up to 1.8 GeV. A successful description of the CLAS results on the Q2-evolution of the ?(1232)3/2+, N(1440)1/2+, and ?(1600)3/2+ electrocouplings has been achieved within the continuum Schwinger method (CSM) by employing the same momentum dependence of the dressed quark mass inferred from the QCD Lagrangian, which also reproduces the experimental results on the pion elastic electromagnetic form factor and parton distribution function, and the nucleon elastic form factor. This success has demonstrated the capability for gaining insight into the emergence of hadron mass (EHM) from the exploration of the Q2-evolution of the ?vpN* electrocouplings. These studies also allow us to establish either universality or environmental sensitivity of the dressed quark mass function and to explore qq-correlation amplitudes of different spin-parities and the mixing between configurations of different orbital angular momentum. Exploration of the resonance electroexcitation with the CLAS12 detector and in the future with a possible 22 GeV machine at JLab offer the only foreseen opportunity to extend information on the ?vpN* electrocouplings for Q2 from 5-30 GeV2. Analyses of these results will cover the full range of distances where the dominant part of hadron mass and N* structure emerge from QCD.

Mokeev, Victor↗

Radioactive heat sources in the lunar interior.

Published models for the moon's thermal history typically imply present day central temperatures far too high to be consistent with the recently proposed lunar temperature profile of Sonett et al. (1971). Furthermore, chemical data on Apollo samples show that the moon is depleted relative to chondrites in volatile elements, and possibly enriched relative to chondrites in refractory elements. Additional thermal models have therefore been investigated in order to set upper limits on lunar radioactivity consistent with the proposed temperature distribution. For an initially cold, uniform moon, devoid of potassium, a maximum uranium content of 23 parts per billion is inferred.

Hays, J. F.↗

Stratospheric aerosol properties and their effects on infrared radiation.

This paper presents a stratospheric aerosol model and infers its effects on terrestrial radiation. Composition of the aerosol is assumed to be concentrated sulfuric acid. An appropriate size distribution has been determined from available size distribution measurements of other investigators. Aerosols composed of concentrated sulfuric acid emit energy in the atmospheric window region of the infrared spectrum, 8-13 microns. Laboratory measurements of optical constant data obtained at room temperature are presented for 75 and 90% aqueous sulfuric acid. Calculations of an aerosol extinction coefficient are then performed by using the above data. Effects of changes in aerosol phase and temperature are discussed but not resolved.

Remsberg, E. E.↗

Latitudinal beaming of Jupiter's low frequency radio emissions

By comparing RAE-1 and IMP-6 satellite measurements of Jupiter's radio emission near 1MHz with recent Voyager-1 and 2 observations in the same frequency range, the properties of the low frequency radiation pattern over a 10 deg range of latitudes with respect to the Jovian rotation equator can be studied. These observations, which cover a wider latitudinal range than is possible from the earth, are consistent with many aspects of earlier ground-based measurements used to infer a sharp beaming pattern for the decameter wavelength emissions. Marked, systematic changes are found in the statistical occurrence probability distributions with system 3 central meridian longitude as the jovigraphic latitude of the observer changes over this range. Simultaneous observations by the two Voyager spacecraft suggest that the instantaneous beam width may be no more than a few degrees at times. The new hectometer-wave results can be interpreted in terms of a narrow, curved sheet at a fixed magnetic latitude into which the emission is beamed to escape the planet.

Alexander, J. K.↗

Stress rate and proof-testing of silicon wafers

Fracture mechanics test methods were applied to evaluate the proof-test characteristics of single-crystal silicon wafers. The results indicate that the strength distribution of silicon wafers is truncated by proof-testing. No subcritical crack growth occurred during proof-loading, as inferred from the lack of a stress-rate effect on strength. Mechanical proof-testing appears to be an effective method for eliminating weak samples before cell processing.

Chen, C. P.↗

Rain-Mapping Radar

Orbiting radar system measures rates of rainfall from 0.5 to 60 mm/h. Radar waves scattered and absorbed by rainfall to extents depending on wavelength, polarization, rate of rainfall, and distribution of sizes and shapes of raindrops. Backscattered radar signal as function of length of path through rain used to infer detailed information about rain. Accumulated radar return signals processed into global maps of monthly average rainfall for use in climatological studies.

Im, K. E.↗

Radiative magnetized thermal conduction fronts

The evolution of plane-parallel magnetized thermal conduction fronts in the interstellar medium (ISM) was studied. Separating the coronal ISM phase and interstellar clouds, these fronts have been thought to be the site of the intermediate-temperature regions whose presence was inferred from O VI absorption-line studies. The front evolution was followed numerically, starting from the initial discontinuous temperature distribution between the hot and cold medium, and ending in the final cooling stage of the hot medium. It was found that, for the typical ISM pressure of 4000 K/cu cm and the hot medium temperature of 10 to the 6th K, the transition from evaporation to condensation in a nonmagnetized front occurs when the front thickness is 15 pc. This thickness is a factor of 5 smaller than previously estimated. The O VI column densities in both evaporative and condensation stages agree with observations if the initial hot medium temperature Th exceeds 750,000 K. Condensing conduction fronts give better agreement with observed O VI line profiles because of lower gas temperatures.

Borkowski, Kazimierz J.↗

Effect of DCB extraction on Mossbauer and spectral data for a Hawaiian palagonitic soil (PN-9): Iden tification of pigmentary phases

The study of palagonitic soils is an active area of research in martian geoscience because the spectral and magnetic properties of a subset are spectral and/or magnetic analogues of martian bright regions. An understanding of the composition, distribution, and mineralogy of ferric-bearing phases for palagonitic soils forms, through spectral and magnetic data, a basis for inferring the nature of ferric-bearing phases on Mars. Progress has been made in this area, but the data set is incomplete, especially with respect to the nature of pigmenting phases. The purpose of this study is to identify the nature of the pigment for Hawaiian palagonitic soil PN-9 by using extraction procedures to selectively remove iron oxide phases. This soil was collected at the same locale as samples Hawaii 34 and VOL02. All three soils are good spectral analogues for martian bright regions.

Morris, Richard V.↗

Analysis of Antarctic stratospheric aerosol properties using SAGE II extinction measurements

Multispectra aerosol extinction data for the fall and spring of 1987 measured by the SAGE II sensor are employed to determine the physical characteristics of aerosols within the springtime Antarctic polar vortex. Attention is given to the physical processes that give rise to the apparent springtime 'cleansing' of the Antarctic stratosphere. The inferred vertical and radial structure compare favorably with in situ measurements but yield a previously unavailable 2D structure to the distribution of aerosols within the polar vortex. The springtime 'cleansing' of the Antarctic stratosphere is found to be a result of both large-scale subsidence and the preferential removal of large particles by the nucleation and subsequent sedimentation of polar stratospheric clouds.

Thomason, Larry W.↗

Gaseous abundances and methane supersaturation in Titan's troposphere

Various properties of Titan's troposphere are inferred from an analysis of Voyager I infrared spectrometer (IRIS) data between 200 and 600/ cm. Two homogeneous spectral averages acquired at widely separated emission angles are chosen for the analysis. Both data sets are associated with northern low latitudes very close to that of the radio science ingress occultation point. Solutions require simultaneous nonlinear least-squares fits to the two IRIS data sets, coupled with iteration of the radio occultation refractivity data. Values and associated 1-sigma uncertainties of several parameters are inferred from our analysis. These include mole fractions for molecular hydrogen (approx. 0.0011), argon (small), and methane near the surface ( approx. 0.057). Solutions are also obtained for the hydrogen parafraction (close to equilibrium, with considerable uncertainty), air temperature near the surface ( approx. 93 K), surface surface temperature discontinuity (approx. 1 K), and maximum degree of methane supersaturation in the upper troposphere (approx. 1.5). Actual values for the above-mentioned parameters depend on the amount of ethane cloud near the tropopause. There is no evidence for methane clouds in the upper troposphere, nor is their presence compatible with large degrees of supersaturation. A wave number dependence for the stratospheric haze opacity is inferred similar to that found for a polymeric residue created in laboratory discharge experiments. This haze appears to be uniformly distributed with latitude between altitudes of 40 and 160 km, provided those nighttime data at southern high latitudes that are discounted.

Samuelson, Robert E.↗

CALIPSO Detection of an Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer

The first four years of the CALIPSO lidar measurements have revealed the existence of an aerosol layer at the tropopause level associated with the Asian monsoon season in June, July and August. This Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) extends geographically from Eastern Mediterranean (down to North Africa) to Western China (down to Thailand), and vertically from 13 to 18 km. The Scattering Ratio inferred from CALIPSO shows values between 1.10. 1.15 on average with associated depolarization ratio of less than 5%. The Gaussian distribution of the points indicates that the mean value is statistically driven by an enhancement of the background aerosol level and not by episodic events such as a volcanic eruption or cloud contamination. Further satellite observations of aerosols and gases as well as field campaigns are urgently needed to characterize this layer, which is likely to be a significant source of non-volcanic aerosols for the global upper troposphere with a potential impact on its radiative and chemical balance

Vemier, J.-P.↗

Loss of Control Detection for Commercial Transports Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders

This work describes a detector for the loss of control of a commercial transport in flight. The detector has a belief state defined by the latent variable stochastic modeling of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) constructed with bidirectional recurrent layers. In 2000, the Boeing Company and the NASA Langley Research Center jointly developed a quantitative set of metrics for defining loss-of-control (LOC) for a commercial transport. We use the thresholds for these quantitative metrics to define a condition vector for training the CVAE. We demonstrate through experimentation that reconstruction probability is an accurate indicator that the vehicle has shifted to an LOC state. Second, we introduce a technique for inferring that the vehicle is experiencing a flight state change is approaching by measuring a shift in the sampling Gaussian distributions of the latent space. We provide an analysis of its applicability to flight data from a NASA generic commercial transport-type aircraft.

Newton H Campbell↗

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

Robert S. Schrom↗

Progress on the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB): A new DNI computation

This study introduces a new technique to compute direct normal irradiance (DNI) for improving the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). A finite-surface integration algorithm is developed to compute solar radiation in differential solid angles and efficiently infer its contribution to a surface perpendicular to the solar direction. A lookup table of cloud bi-directional transmittance distribution function (BTDF) is developed by use of the discrete ordinates radiative transfer (DISORT) model for possible solar and observing directions and various cloud optical and microphysical properties. In each solar incident direction, DNI is given by the cloud BTDFs from approximately 200 differential solid angles. The simulated DNI is calibrated and evaluated using surface observations at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Energy Research Laboratory (SRRL) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Particle Size Distribution Parameters from SAGE III/ISS Extinction Spectra

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on the relative abundance of different sized particles within the sample volume, often referred to as the particle size distribution (PSD). If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density and effective radius) can be derived. Historically, occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts routinely failed to account for measurement uncertainty and lacked a rigorous estimate of the inferred PSD uncertainty. We carried out a series of simulations to evaluate the accuracy of these inferences and, for every valid SAGE III/ISS extinction spectrum, determined the range of PSD parameters that fell withing the bounds of the extinction error bars. Special application of this method was applied to estimate the impact of the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption had on particle size distributions.

Travis N Knepp↗