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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photoinduced Electron and Energy Transfer Pathways and Photocatalytic Mechanisms in Hybrid Plasmonic Photocatalysis

Hybrid plasmonic nanostructures are built on plasmonic metalnanostructures surrounded by catalytic metals or metal oxides. We report that recent studies have shown that hybrid plasmonic nanocatalysts can concurrently utilize thermal energy and photon stimuli and exhibit high catalytic activity, selectivity, and stability that are not attainable in conventional purely thermally activated catalytic processes. The hybrid plasmonic photocatalytic approach has recently emerged as an attractive concept for the conversion of solar energy into chemical energy, the distributed synthesis of valuable chemicals such as ammonia with little to no requirement of external heating, and the development of coke-resistant and selective catalytic processes. The field of hybrid plasmonic photocatalysis has grown tremendously in the last decade. In this review article, the advantages of visible-light-augmented hybrid plasmonic photocatalysis over conventional pure thermally activated heterogeneous catalysis are discussed. Fundamental insights are provided into photocatalytic mechanisms by which the photoexcited charge carriers (electrons and holes) are formed and transferred to adsorbates triggering chemical transformations on the surface of hybrid plasmonic nanocatalysts. Computational modeling used for predicting and understanding the photocatalytic activity and selectivity on hybrid plasmonic nanostructures is also reviewed. The review closes with a discussion of the current challenges, new opportunities, and future outlook for hybrid plasmonic photocatalysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A physically based mechanical model for Mullins effect in thermoplastic polyurethanes

Despite decades of research, connecting the chemical and physical structure of thermoplastic polyurethanes to their mechanical properties remains highly challenging. Of particular note are their large-deformation and rate-dependent behaviors, which vary greatly with molecular chemistry, including the type and relative content of soft and hard segments. In this work, we develop a physically motivated mechanical theory for predicting the behavior of thermoplastic polyurethanes. The theory incorporates a representation of microstructural evolution during mechanical deformation, which captures the signatures of stress softening over cyclic loading (commonly referred to as the Mullins effect). There are only eight physically motivated fitting parameters, including a direct dependence on the hard segment fraction. The model predicts that increasing the hard segment fraction leads to higher stiffness and greater energy dissipation, in quantitative agreement with published experimental data. Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the model and validate its predictions across several independent datasets focused on mechanical characterization. Direct comparisons to experimental data demonstrate its predictive capability on the effect of loading rate, cyclic deformations, and applied tension or compression. Altogether, this work establishes a predictive framework that connects polymer chemistry and microstructure to emergent mechanical behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino and Electromagnetic Signatures from Superluminous Supernovae: A Case Study for SN 2017egm

Superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) are rare transients that are ∼10–100 times more luminous than ordinary stellar explosions, reaching peak optical luminosities ∼10 44 –10 45 erg s −1 . The energy source powering SLSNe remains uncertain. In this work, we explore the multiwavelength and multimessenger signatures of the scenario in which SLSNe are powered by a newly born millisecond magnetar. We model the dynamical evolution and emission from the coupled system comprised of the magnetar, wind, nebula, and supernova ejecta, consistently evaluating the pair multiplicity of the wind and nebula regions, and the bulk wind Lorentz factor governing the e + − e − injection spectra in the nebula. We compute the thermal and nonthermal electromagnetic signatures, neutrino signatures, and investigate their detection prospects. For SN 2017egm, the nearest observed SLSNe, our prediction for high-energy gamma rays matches the recent detection by the Fermi Large Area Telescope. For neutrinos, using SN 2017egm a canonical SLSNe, we find that in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, a stacking analysis with upcoming neutrino observatories can lead to 3σ detection significance of neutrino events from a population of SLSNe within a decade of operation.

Mukhopadhyay, Mainak [Fermi National Accelerator L↗
NASA NTRS1994

Farby-Perot observations and new models of the HH 47A and HH 47D bow shocks

We present new models for the HH 47A and HH 47D bow shocks based on line flux and velocity maps obtained with an imaging Fabry-Perot spectrometer. We confirm that HH 47A and HH 47D each show a bow shock/Mach disk morphology, and that velocity variability in the outflow can account for the observed structures. While it was suggested a decade ago that the inner working surface HH 47A appears to be traveling into the wake of HH 47D, we find kinematic evidence that the outer bow shock HH 47D is also not the primary ejection event in the outflow but follows in the wake of previously ejected material. By comparing the observed line ratios and line profiles to those predicted by our bow shock models, we find that both bow shocks have substantially lower shock velocities than their space motions would imply, and that the emission from each bow shock is systematically blueshifted from the rest-frame velocity of the ambient emission, indicating a comoving preshock medium. We derive kinematic ages of approximately 1150 yr for HH 47D and approximately 550 yr for HH 47A, which implies that the stellar driving source may undergo repetitive eruptions similar to FU Orionis-type outbursts every several hundred years. This timescale is similar to estimates made by Reipurth and collaborators for the separation between major outbursts in the HH 34 and HH 111 stellar jets.

Morse, Jon A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Positioning System Navigation Above 76,000 km for NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, launched in March of 2015, consists of a controlled formation of four spin-stabilized spacecraft in similar highly elliptic orbits reaching apogee at radial distances of 12 and 25 Earth radii (RE) in the first and second phases of the mission. Navigation for MMS is achieved independently on-board each spacecraft by processing Global Positioning System (GPS) observables using NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)'s Navigator GPS receiver and the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS) extended Kalman filter software. To our knowledge, MMS constitutes, by far, the highest-altitude operational use of GPS to date and represents a high point of over a decade of high-altitude GPS navigation research and development at GSFC. In this paper we will briefly describe past and ongoing high-altitude GPS research efforts at NASA GSFC and elsewhere, provide details on the design of the MMS GPS navigation system, and present on-orbit performance data from the first phase. We extrapolate these results to predict performance in the second phase orbit, and conclude with a discussion of the implications of the MMS results for future high-altitude GPS navigation, which we believe to be broad and far-reaching.

GPS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Investigating Space Weather Events Impacting the Spitzer Space Telescope

Our understanding of the dynamical process in the space environment has increased dramatically. A relatively new field of study called "Space Weather" has emerged in the last few decades. Fundamental to the study of space weather is an understanding of how space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections impact spacecraft in varying orbits and distances around the Sun. Specialized space weather satellite monitoring systems operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allow scientists to predict space weather events affecting critical systems on and orbiting the Earth. However, the Spitzer Space Telescope is in an orbit far outside the areas covered by those space weather monitoring systems. This poses a challenge for the Spitzer's Mission Operations Team in determining whether space weather events affect Spitzer.

solar flare↗
NASA NTRS2017

Global Positioning System Navigation Above 76,000 km for NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, launched in March of 2015, consists of a controlled formation of four spin-stabilized spacecraft in similar highly elliptic orbits reaching apogee at radial distances of 12 and 25 Earth radii (RE) in the first and second phases of the mission. Navigation for MMSis achieved independently on-board each spacecraft by processing Global Positioning System (GPS) observables using NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)'s Navigator GPS receiver and the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS) extended Kalman filter software. To our knowledge, MMS constitutes, by far, the highest-altitude operational use of GPS to date and represents a high point of over a decade of high-altitude GPS navigation research and development at GSFC. In this paper we will briefly describe past and ongoing high-altitude GPS research efforts at NASA GSFC and elsewhere, provide details on the design of the MMS GPS navigation system, and present on-orbit performance data from the first phase. We extrapolate these results to predict performance in the second phase orbit, and conclude with a discussion of the implications of the MMS results for future high-altitude GPS navigation, which we believe to be broad and far-reaching.

navigation↗
NASA NTRS2017

Synopsis of Precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance (PL&HA) Capabilities for Space Exploration

Until recently, robotic exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and other solar system bodies relied upon controlled blind landings. Because terrestrial techniques for terrain relative navigation (TRN) had not yet been evolved to support space exploration, landing dispersions were driven by the capabilities of inertial navigation systems combined with surface relative altimetry and velocimetry. Lacking tight control over the actual landing location, mission success depended on the statistical vetting of candidate landing areas within the predicted landing dispersion ellipse based on orbital reconnaissance data, combined with the ability of the spacecraft to execute a controlled landing in terms of touchdown attitude, attitude rates, and velocity. In addition, the sensors, algorithms, and processing technologies required to perform autonomous hazard detection and avoidance in real time during the landing sequence were not yet available. Over the past decade, NASA has invested substantial resources on the development, integration, and testing of autonomous precision landing and hazard avoidance (PL&HA) capabilities. In addition to substantially improving landing accuracy and safety, these autonomous PL&HA functions also offer access to targets of interest located within more rugged and hazardous terrain. Optical TRN systems are baselined on upcoming robotic landing missions to the Moon and Mars, and NASA JPL is investigating the development of a comprehensive PL&HA system for a Europa lander. These robotic missions will demonstrate and mature PL&HA technologies that are considered essential for future human exploration missions. PL&HA technologies also have applications to rendezvous and docking/berthing with other spacecraft, as well as proximity navigation, contact, and retrieval missions to smaller bodies with microgravity environments, such as asteroids.

Robertson, Edward A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Stellar Occultation Observations to Constrain the Stratosphere of Uranus for Aerocapture

Background on Uranus: Voyager 2 (V2) UV stellar and solar occultations at Uranus detected a warm stratosphere and extremely hot thermosphere [1, 2], far in excess of solar irradiance [3, 4] and internal heating [5, 6]. New theories to explain similar heating at Jupiter [7] and Saturn [8] cannot be tested at Uranus due to a dearth of reliable measurements. In [9, 10], we reprocessed 26 archival Earth-based stellar occultations by Uranus (1977-1996), finding stratospheric temperatures (~200 K) warmer than the original (~100 K), but in stark tension with V2 (~300-500 K). In [10], we built a physics-based, 1-D atmospheric model (see Fig 1) that finds a nearly isothermal stratosphere and a dynamic heat sink in the lower thermosphere. Aerocapture: Aerocapture is spacecraft maneuver that uses a single deep dip to enter orbit. It could decrease cruise time and launch mass for a Uranus mission, but the greatest impediment is uncertain stratospheric densities of Uranus [11]. Aims: 1) Observe and process many high S/N Uranus stellar occultations in the next decade; 2) constrain stratospheric densities for aerocapture; 3) better understand the energy balance; 4) determine stratospheric changes since 1996. Upcoming Occultations: We will present our observing plan for the 2025 April Uranus occultation (K mag 8) and discuss the best-in-a-century 2031 event (K mag 4). We will discuss other events in the early 2030s [12] [13], predicted constraints on density, and simulations of aerocapture for UOP. We will discuss the Shadow Chaser, a small satellite concept for observing occultations from Earth orbit [12]. Conclusions: New stellar occultations can vastly improve profiles of the stratosphere of Uranus; this is critical for understanding energy circulation and constraining densities for using aerocapture on UOP. References: [1] Herbert, F. et al. (1987). JGR. [2] Stevens, M. et al. (1993). Icarus. [3] Marley, M. & McKay, C. (1999). Icarus, [4] Li, C. et al. (2018). JQRST. [5] Pearl, J. et al. (1990). Icarus. [6] Melin, H (2020). Nat Astron. [7] O’Donoghue, J. et al. (2021) Nature. [8] Mueller-Wodarg, I. et al. (2019) GRL. [9] Saunders, W. et al. (2023). PSJ. [10] Saunders, W. et al. (2024). PSJ. [11] Report of the Aerocapture Demonstration Relevance Assessment Team (2023). [12] Saunders, W. et al. (2022). P&SS. [13] French, R. & Souami, D. (2023) PSJ.

William Saunders↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Future of Planetary Climate Modeling and Weather Prediction

Modeling of planetary climate and weather has followed the development of tools for studying Earth, with lags of a few years. Early Earth climate studies were performed with 1-dimensionalradiative-convective models, which were soon fol-lowed by similar models for the climates of Mars and Venus and eventually by similar models for exoplan-ets. 3-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) became common in Earth science soon after and within several years were applied to the meteorology of Mars, but it was several decades before a GCM was used to simulate extrasolar planets. Recent trends in Earth weather and and climate modeling serve as a useful guide to how modeling of Solar System and exoplanet weather and climate will evolve in the coming decade.

Del Genio, A. D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relationship Between Hydrogen-Bonding Motifs and the 1b1 Splitting in the X-ray Emission Spectrum of Liquid Water

The split of the 1??! peak observed in the X-ray emission (XE) spectrum of liquid water has been the focus of intense research over the last two decades. Although several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the origin of the 1??! splitting, a general consensus has not yet been reached. In this study, we introduce a novel theoretical/computational approach which, combining pathintegral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations carried out with the MB-pol potential energy function and time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) calculations, correctly predicts the split of the 1??! peak in liquid water and not in crystalline ice. A systematic analysis in terms of the underlying local structure of liquid water at ambient conditions indicates that several different hydrogen-bonding motifs contribute to the overall XE lineshape in the energy range corresponding to emissions from the 1??! orbitals, which suggests that it is not possible to unambiguously attribute the split of the 1??! peak to only two specific structural arrangements of the underlying hydrogen-bonding network.

Cruzeiro, Vinicius↗
NASA NTRS1993

Hydrodynamic models of the Cartwheel ring galaxy

A series of increasingly sophisticated models of the Cartwheel ring galaxy is studied in order to test the collisional model for the galaxy formation and examine the star formation processes in this unique environment, using new data acquired in the last decade. The simulations provided some possible answers to a number of questions about the Cartwheel. First, an explanation for the wide spacing between inner and outer rings is suggested by the simple epicyclic kinematics within the dark matter-dominated potential implied by H I rotation curve. These models and the kinematic model of Struck-Marcell and Lotan (1990) also predict that the outer ring should be relatively weak, while the second inner ring should be stronger, with a dense orbit-crossing region of significant width bounded by sharp, caustic edges. The collisional model is given support by the agreement between the observations and the morphological and kinematic properties of the numerical simulations presented.

Struck-Marcell, Curtis↗
NASA NTRS2000

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

Hansen, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Calibration and Characterization of Earth Remote Sensing and Environmental Monitoring Instruments

The use of remote sensing instruments on orbiting satellite platforms in the study of Earth Science and environmental monitoring was officially inaugurated with the April 1, 1960 launch of the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) [1]. The first TIROS accommodated two television cameras and operated for only 78 days. However, the TIROS program, in providing in excess of 22,000 pictures of the Earth, achieved its primary goal of providing Earth images from a satellite platform to aid in identifying and monitoring meteorological processes. This marked the beginning of what is now over four decades of Earth observations from satellite platforms. reflected and emitted radiation from the Earth using instruments on satellite platforms. These measurements are input to climate models, and the model results are analyzed in an effort to detect short and long-term changes and trends in the Earth's climate and environment, to identify the cause of those changes, and to predict or influence future changes. Examples of short-term climate change events include the periodic appearance of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean [2] and the spectacular eruption of Mount Pinatubo on the Philippine island of Luzon in 1991. Examples of long term climate change events, which are more subtle to detect, include the destruction of coral reefs, the disappearance of glaciers, and global warming. Climatic variability can be both large and small scale and can be caused by natural or anthropogenic processes. The periodic El Nino event is an example of a natural process which induces significant climatic variability over a wide range of the Earth. A classic example of a large scale anthropogenic influence on climate is the well-documented rapid increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide occurring since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [3]. An example of the study of a small-scale anthropogenic influence in climate variability is the Atlanta Land-use Analysis Temperature and Air-quality (ATLANTA) project [4]. This project has found that the replacement of trees and vegetation with concrete and asphalt in Atlanta, Georgia, and its environs has created a microclimate capable of producing wind and thunderstorms. A key objective of climate research is to be able to distinguish the natural versus human roles in climate change and to clearly communicate those findings to those who shape and direct environmental policy.

Butler, James J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Impact of QuikScat on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Scatterometer observations of the ocean surface wind speed and direction improve the depiction and prediction of storms at sea. These data are especially valuable where observations are otherwise sparse, mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics, but also on occasion in the North Atlantic and North Pacific The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite was launched in June 1999 and it represents a dramatic departure in design from the other scatterometer instruments launched during the past decade (ERS-1,2 and NSCAT). More details on the SeaWinds instrument can be found in Atlas et al. (2001) and Bloom et al. (1999). This presentation shows the influence of QuikScat data in data assimilation systems both from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (GEOS-3) and from NCEP (GDAS).

Atlas, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2002

Multi-Zone Liquid Thrust Chamber Performance Code with Domain Decomposition for Parallel Processing

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has considerably evolved in the last decade. There are many computer programs that can perform computations on viscous internal or external flows with chemical reactions. CFD has become a commonly used tool in the design and analysis of gas turbines, ramjet combustors, turbo-machinery, inlet ducts, rocket engines, jet interaction, missile, and ramjet nozzles. One of the problems of interest to NASA has always been the performance prediction for rocket and air-breathing engines. Due to the complexity of flow in these engines it is necessary to resolve the flowfield into a fine mesh to capture quantities like turbulence and heat transfer. However, calculation on a high-resolution grid is associated with a prohibitively increasing computational time that can downgrade the value of the CFD for practical engineering calculations. The Liquid Thrust Chamber Performance (LTCP) code was developed for NASA/MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) to perform liquid rocket engine performance calculations. This code is a 2D/axisymmetric full Navier-Stokes (NS) solver with fully coupled finite rate chemistry and Eulerian treatment of liquid fuel and/or oxidizer droplets. One of the advantages of this code has been the resemblance of its input file to the JANNAF (Joint Army Navy NASA Air Force Interagency Propulsion Committee) standard TDK code, and its automatic grid generation for JANNAF defined combustion chamber wall geometry. These options minimize the learning effort for TDK users, and make the code a good candidate for performing engineering calculations. Although the LTCP code was developed for liquid rocket engines, it is a general-purpose code and has been used for solving many engineering problems. However, the single zone formulation of the LTCP has limited the code to be applicable to problems with complex geometry. Furthermore, the computational time becomes prohibitively large for high-resolution problems with chemistry, two-equation turbulence model, and two-phase flow. To overcome these limitations, the LTCP code is rewritten to include the multi-zone capability with domain decomposition that makes it suitable for parallel processing, i.e., enabling the code to run every zone or sub-domain on a separate processor. This can reduce the run time by a factor of 6 to 8, depending on the problem.

Homayun K. Navaz↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impact of SeaWinds Scatterometer Data on Numerical Weather Prediction

Scatterometer observations of the ocean surface wind speed and direction improve the depiction and prediction of storms at sea. These data are especially valuable where observations are otherwise sparse - mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics, but also on occasion in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite was launched in June 1999 and it represents a dramatic departure in design from the other scatterometer instruments launched during the past decade (ERS-1,2 and NSCAT). More details on the SeaWinds instrument can be found in Atlas et a1 (2001) and Bloom et al. (1999). At the time of this writing, SeaWinds scatterometer data from the ADEOS 2 satellite are not yet available . Therefore this paper will be limited to results from the SeaWinds scatterometer on Quikscat. This presentation shows the influence of QuikScat data in data assimilation systems both from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (GEOS-3) and from NCEP (GDAS).

Atlas, Robert↗