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Informal Statistics Help Desk

Back by popular demand, the JSC Biostatistics Laboratory and LSAH statisticians are offering an opportunity to discuss your statistical challenges and needs. Take the opportunity to meet the individuals offering expert statistical support to the JSC community. Join us for an informal conversation about any questions you may have encountered with issues of experimental design, analysis, or data visualization. Get answers to common questions about sample size, repeated measures, statistical assumptions, missing data, multiple testing, time-to-event data, and when to trust the results of your analyses.

Young, M.↗

Oilwell Conversion (Well API 121913310501) to Geothermal Heat Storage Well for Flexible Electricity Storage

Geothermal growth is limited by a lack of geographically dispersed high-temperature thermal resources and high initial upfront investment in characterization and well construction. This project intended to address the challenges of energy supply intermittency and enhance grid resilience, reliability, and energy security by storing energy provided from currently available renewable resources in the subsurface to harvest it a later time during at-peak energy demand. This project intended to improve geothermal adoption, reduce initial project risk, and improve price competitiveness through utilizing existing oil and gas infrastructure such as non-productive wells, non-economic fields, dry holes, and orphaned wells. The project also intended to address the lack of geographically dispersed thermal resources and enhance grid resilience, reliability, and energy security by introducing an economical method for storing energy from currently available renewable resources in the subsurface for usage during at-peak energy demand. During this research, the project furthered the understanding of the feasibility of utilizing abandoned oil and gas wells as geothermal heat storage wells. The project team investigated the heat storage and hydrogeological characteristics of subsurface reservoirs in the Illinois Basin to evaluate their response to heat injection for determining the evolution of temperature profiles and heat losses over time using existing and available data sets. The project team then performed modeling and simulation to evaluate the heat losses of returning fluids during heat extraction. The outputs were used to select an optimal candidate reservoir and location in Southern Illinois. The team designed and performed a small-scale field test in an existing oil well to refine the model and to demonstrate the permitting and regulatory pathways necessary for the conversion of oil and gas assets to geothermal use. The field test also serves as a proof of concept and can guide the procedures for future research and implementation. Additionally, the project team, conducted initial market research and customer discovery to develop a go to market strategy for an Advanced Geothermal Energy Storage (AGES) system. The project team in this research also identified the parameters to be refined in future research, to improve the current go to market strategy economic model. To this end several subject matter experts were also identified to assist in future research with geothermal infrastructure setup, energy storage policy and law, energy storage market demand, potential siting based on demand etc. Future research will involve further sophistication of the site commercial modeling, implementing a larger-scale test, and further refinement of the thermodynamic modeling/simulation process. The output will be lifecycle costs and economics suitable for comparison to alternative approaches from a validated full-scale demonstration for venture capital investment into this technology. The project successfully demonstrated the ability to leverage existing oilfield infrastructure, permits, and land access and leasing agreements, to enable geothermal storage projects to come online faster and cheaper than a greenfield development could. This technology could allow for greater energy independence and security through long-term energy storage solutions. The longer duration allows for greater storage for renewables currently limited by hours-long storage durations of lithium-ion. The AGES system would support the growth of renewable energy farms, and provide greater opportunities for a cleaner energy infrastructure.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Pypromice: A Python Package for Processing Automated Weather Station Data

The pypromice Python package is for processing and handling observation datasets from automated weather stations (AWS). It is primarily aimed at users of AWS data from the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), which collects and distributes in situ weather station observations to the cryospheric science research community. Functionality in pypromice is primarily handled using two key open-source Python packages, xarray (Hoyer & Hamman, 2017) and pandas (The pandas development team, 2020). A defined processing workflow is included in pypromice for transforming original AWS observations (Level 0, L0) to a usable, CF-convention-compliant dataset (Level 3, L3) (Figure 1). Intermediary processing levels (L1,L2) refer to key stages in the workflow, namely the conversion of variables to physical measurements and variable filtering (L1), cross-variable corrections and user-defined data flagging and fixing (L2), and derived variables (L3). Information regarding the station configuration is needed to perform the processing, such as instrument calibration coefficients and station type (one-boom tripod or two-boom mast station design, for example), which are held in a toml configuration file. Two example configuration files are provided with pypromice , which are also used in the package’s unit tests. More detailed documentation of the AWS design, instrumentation, and processing steps are described in Fausto et al. (2021).

pypromice↗

Using NASA Techniques to Atmospherically Correct AWiFS Data for Carbon Sequestration Studies

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas emitted in a number of ways, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of forest to agriculture. Research has begun to quantify the ability of vegetative land cover and oceans to absorb and store carbon dioxide. The USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) Forest Service is currently evaluating a DSS (decision support system) developed by researchers at the NASA Ames Research Center called CASA-CQUEST (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach-Carbon Query and Evaluation Support Tools). CASA-CQUEST is capable of estimating levels of carbon sequestration based on different land cover types and of predicting the effects of land use change on atmospheric carbon amounts to assist land use management decisions. The CASA-CQUEST DSS currently uses land cover data acquired from MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), and the CASA-CQUEST project team is involved in several projects that use moderate-resolution land cover data derived from Landsat surface reflectance. Landsat offers higher spatial resolution than MODIS, allowing for increased ability to detect land use changes and forest disturbance. However, because of the rate at which changes occur and the fact that disturbances can be hidden by regrowth, updated land cover classifications may be required before the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission, and consistent classifications will be needed after that time. This candidate solution investigates the potential of using NASA atmospheric correction techniques to produce science-quality surface reflectance data from the Indian Remote Sensing Advanced Wide-Field Sensor on the RESOURCESAT-1 mission to produce land cover classification maps for the CASA-CQUEST DSS.

Holekamp, Kara L.↗

NASA Low Power Stirling Convertor for Small Landers, Probes, and Rovers Operating in Darkness

A variety of mission concepts have been studied by NASA and the U. S. Department of Energy that would utilize low power Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) for probes, landers rovers, and repeaters. These missions would contain science instruments distributed across planetary surfaces or near objects of interest where solar flux is insufficient for using solar cells. Landers could be used to provide data like radiation, temperature, pressure, seismic activity, and other surface measurements for planetary science and to inform future mission planners. The studies proposed using fractional versions of the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) or multiple Light Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHU) to heat power conversion technologies for science instruments and communication. Dynamic power systems are capable of higher conversion efficiencies, which could enable equal power using less fuel or more power using equal fuel, when compared to less efficient static power conversion technologies. Providing spacecraft with more power would decrease duty cycling of basic functions and, therefore, increase the quality and abundance of science data. Low power Stirling convertors are being developed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) to provide future micro spacecraft with electrical power by converting heat from one or more LWRHUs. An initial design converts multiple watts of heat to one watt of electrical power output using a Stirling convertor. Development of the concept includes maturation of convertor and controller designs, performance evaluation of an evacuated metal foil insulation, and development of system interfaces. Demonstration of the convertor is planned and represents a new class of RPS with power levels an order of magnitude lower than previous practical designs.

Wilson, Scott D.↗

A Compilation of Global Bio-Optical in Situ Data for Ocean-Colour Satellite Applications

A compiled set of in situ data is important to evaluate the quality of ocean-colour satellite-data records. Here we describe the data compiled for the validation of the ocean-colour products from the ESA Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI). The data were acquired from several sources (MOBY, BOUSSOLE, AERONET-OC, SeaBASS, NOMAD, MERMAID, AMT, ICES, HOT, GePCO), span between 1997 and 2012, and have a global distribution. Observations of the following variables were compiled: spectral remote-sensing reflectances, concentrations of chlorophyll a, spectral inherent optical properties and spectral diffuse attenuation coefficients. The data were from multi-project archives acquired via the open internet services or from individual projects, acquired directly from data providers. Methodologies were implemented for homogenisation, quality control and merging of all data. No changes were made to the original data, other than averaging of observations that were close in time and space, elimination of some points after quality control and conversion to a standard format. The final result is a merged table designed for validation of satellite-derived ocean-colour products and available in text format. Metadata of each in situ measurement (original source, cruise or experiment, principal investigator) were preserved throughout the work and made available in the final table. Using all the data in a validation exercise increases the number of matchups and enhances the representativeness of different marine regimes. By making available the metadata, it is also possible to analyse each set of data separately. The compiled data are available at doi:10.1594PANGAEA.854832 (Valente et al., 2015).

Valente, Andre↗

2020 Medical Device Sterilization Workshop: Continuing the Conversation, Summary Report

Technical advancements are making accelerator-based sources of radiation viable candidates for sterilization of medical devices. Electron beams and x-rays are becoming more cost-competitive and new facilities are being built to provide needed capacity and redundancy. As the industry becomes more receptive to these modalities, there is a need for information and data to enable prospective users to evaluate these options for their products. The workshops offered in 20191 and now in 2020 strive to foster conversation between device manufacturers, equipment and service providers on needs, capabilities, and knowledge.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Growing Canola for Biofuel Production in the United States

This study quantifies and compares the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable diesel (RD), sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and biodiesel (BD) produced from two U.S. canola production systems: 1) emerging intermediate winter canola, typically grown in double- or relay-cropping systems between the growing seasons of main crops, and 2) main canola, mostly spring canola but also including winter canola, which are grown as primary crops occupying the field for a full growing season. Using the Research and Development version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model and the most up-to-date life cycle inventory data─field trial data for intermediate winter canola (>37,000 acres) and recent national survey data for spring canola─this life cycle analysis (LCA) estimates the direct emissions from canola cultivation and harvest, the conversion of canola into fuels, fuel transportation, and combustion. In addition, we account for market-mediated emissions associated with a scenario of 0.5 billion gallons per year of spring canola-based biofuels, including induced land use change (ILUC), induced other crop (nonfeedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes. For intermediate winter canola, these market-mediated effects were not modeled, as ILUC is expected to be negligible due to its integration into existing rotations, and data are currently insufficient to reliably quantify other market-mediated changes. The estimated life cycle direct emissions of RD/SAF derived from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 32 and 33 g of CO2-equivalent per megajoule of fuel (g CO 2 e/MJ), respectively. Corresponding emissions for BD from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 30 and 31 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. Farming is the dominant emissions source for both canola systems, with intermediate winter canola and main spring canola emitting about 19 and 20 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. ILUC and other induced changes increase emissions of main spring canola-derived RD/SAF and BD by about 18 and 17 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. These results indicate that the GHG emissions of biofuels produced from the two canola systems may differ substantially due to the different land use dynamics of the systems.

biodiesel↗

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - Simulated Wave

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production using a single, simulated wave energy conversion device. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen. While the unit supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. For the wave energy, NLR used a wave energy converter model from PacWave. These devices can be equipped with accumulators and pressure relief values to smooth the power output by storing and releasing hydraulic energy. Using a peak power output of 10 MW, the model created two 25-minute profiles: one with and one without the accumulators and pressure relief valves. To down select the profile data from the native resolution of 20 Hz to 1 Hz, NLR took the mean of every 20 data points. NLR experimented with two simulated wave energy power plants: one that peaks at 10 MW, and one that peaks at 5 MW. These profiles were scaled for the physical 1.25 MW electrolyzer by multiplying the original profiles by one eighth and one quarter, respectively. The first profile matches the capacity rating of eight of the 1.25 MW electrolyzers, while the second matches four electrolyzers. Finally, NLR experimented with two settings for the electrolyzer power supply minimum and maximum current ramp rates (gain and slew): 200 and 400 amperes per second. The simulated profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wave electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}-{accumulator?}_{number of 1.25 MW electrolyzers connected}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wavePacWave-Noacc_4-400.zip” represents the 25 minute-long experiment using the PacWave’s wave energy converter model, equipped with no accumulator, connected to four 1.25-MW electrolyzers with their power supplies set to a maximum current ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wave power. An experiment, labeled “characterization_200.zip”, demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30 minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all wave profiles combined into one dataset labeled "combined_wave_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A data-driven method to estimate the antiproton background in Mu2e

The Mu2e experiment will search for the CLFV process of neutrinoless, coherent conversion of muon to electron in the field of an Al nucleus. One of the expected backgrounds is antiprotons produced by the proton beam at the Production Target and annihilating in the Stopping Target to produce signal-like electrons. Although not a dominant background, it has a large uncertainty and cannot be suppressed by the timing cuts used to reduce the prompt background. However, at Mu2e energies, $p\bar{p}$ annihilation is the only source of events with multiple, simultaneous particles coming from the Stopping Target. We utilized this unique feature and developed a novel approach to reconstruct multi-track events and estimate the antiproton background.

Chithirasreemadam, Namitha [Pisa U.; INFN, Pisa]↗

Verification of performance of the Mariner 9 television cameras

Based on limited data, the Mariner 9 performance appears consistent throughout its mission. Several corrections have been provided by inflight verification sequences. A change in photometric response, which will impair precise photometric analysis, has been observed. Hence, only qualified photometric measurement appears feasible under limited conditions. Conversely, certain geometric and electronic parameters appear both measurable and congruent with preflight prediction. The role of inflight verification has been emphasized by these data to assess the in situ camera health and to promote efficient data analysis and interpretation.

Thorpe, T. E.↗

Managing an archive of weather satellite images

The author's experiences of building and maintaining an archive of hourly weather satellite pictures at NOAO are described. This archive has proven very popular with visiting and staff astronomers - especially on windy days and cloudy nights. Given access to a source of such pictures, a suite of simple shell and IRAF CL scripts can provide a great deal of robust functionality with little effort. These pictures and associated data products such as surface analysis (radar) maps and National Weather Service forecasts are updated hourly at anonymous ftp sites on the Internet, although your local Atsmospheric Sciences Department may prove to be a more reliable source. The raw image formats are unfamiliar to most astronomers, but reading them into IRAF is straightforward. Techniques for performing this format conversion at the host computer level are described which may prove useful for other chores. Pointers are given to sources of data and of software, including a package of example tools. These tools include shell and Perl scripts for downloading pictures, maps, and forecasts, as well as IRAF scripts and host level programs for translating the images into IRAF and GIF formats and for slicing & dicing the resulting images. Hints for displaying the images and for making hardcopies are given.

Seaman, R. L.↗

Particle size influences decay rates of environmental DNA in aquatic systems

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis is a powerful tool for remote detection of target organisms. However, obtaining quantitative and longitudinal information from eDNA data is challenging, requiring a deep understanding of eDNA ecology. Notably, if the various size components of eDNA decay at different rates, and we can separate them within a sample, their changing proportions could be used to obtain longitudinal dynamics information on targets. To test this possibility, we conducted an aquatic mesocosm experiment in which we separated fish‐derived eDNA components using sequential filtration to evaluate the decay rate and changing proportion of various eDNA particle sizes over time. We then fit four alternative mathematical decay models to the data, building towards a predictive framework to interpret eDNA data from various particle sizes. We found that medium‐sized particles (1–10 μm) decayed more slowly than other size classes (i.e., <1 and > 10 μm), and thus made up an increasing proportion of eDNA particles over time. We also observed distinct eDNA particle size distribution (PSD) between our Common carp and Rainbow trout samples, suggesting that target‐specific assays are required to determine starting eDNA PSDs. Additionally, we found evidence that different sizes of eDNA particles do not decay independently, with particle size conversion replenishing smaller particles over time. Nonetheless, a parsimonious mathematical model where particle sizes decay independently best explained the data. Given these results, we suggest a framework to discern target distance and abundance with eDNA data by applying sequential filtration, which theoretically has both metabarcoding and single‐target applications.

Brandão‐Dias, Pedro F. P.↗

Ocean-Science Mission Needs: Real-Time AUV Data for Command, Control, and Model Inputs

Predictive models for tides, hydrodynamics, and bio-optical properties affecting the visibility and buoyancy of coastal waters are needed to evaluate the safety of personnel and equipment engaged in maritime operations under potentially hazardous conditions. Predicted currents can be markedly different for two-layer systems affected by terrestrial runoff than for well-mixed conditions because the layering decouples the surface and bottom Ekman layers and rectifies the current response to oscillatory upwelling-and downwelling-favorable winds. Standard ocean models (e.g. Princeton Ocean Model) require initial-and boundary data on the physical and optical properties of the multilayered water column to provide accurate simulations of heat budgets and circulation. Two observational systems are designed to measure vertically structured conditions on the West Florida Shelf (WFS): a tethered buoy network and an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) observational system. The AUV system is described with a focus on the observational systems that challenge or limit the communications command and control network for various types of measurement programs. These include vertical oscillatory missions on shelf transects to observe the optical and hydrographic properties of the water column, and bottom-following missions for measuring the bottom albedo. Models of light propagation, absorption, and conversion to heat as well as determination of the buoyancy terms for physical models require these measurements. High data rates associated with video bottom imagery are the most challenging for the real-time, command and control communications system, but they are met through a combination of loss-less and lossy data-compression methods, depending upon the data-rate of the radio links.

Carder, Kendall L.↗

Ion-Molecule Reactions and Ion Kinetics in DC Townsend Discharges in Dielectric Gases

In gas discharges the identify, transport, relative intensities, and kinetic energy distributions (KEDs) of ions may be dominated by ion-molecule reactions. In order to understand these discharges, there is a need for cross section data for various ion-molecule reactions, including symmetric and asymmetric charge-transfer, collisional detachment, and ion conversion reactions, especially for low to intermediate ion-impact energies. In view of the importance of dielectric gases, we have recently measured the KEDs of various positive and negative ions produced in DC Townsend discharges in SF6, CF4, CHF3, O2, and CO2. The relative abundance and mean energies of ions are obtained from the measured KEDs. The effective cross sections (Qeff) describing the KEDs of various ions can be derived by using the mean ion energies and the electric field-to-gas density ratios (E/N). In the case of SF6 and O2 discharges, the determined cross sections (Qeff) for the negative-ion molecule reactions are consistent with previously measured cross section data obtained by crossed-beam experiment. The availability of these cross section values enabled us to understand the ion data reasonably well. However, the lack of adequate cross section data for positive ions in all of the above gases is a major obstacle in understanding ion transport in these gas discharges.

Rao, M. V. V. S.↗

Probing the axion-electron coupling with NuSTAR observations of galaxies

We search for the existence of ultralight axions coupling to electrons and photons using data from the NuSTAR telescope directed toward the galaxies M82, M87, and M31. We focus on electron bremsstrahlung and Compton scattering for axion production in stars, summing over the stellar populations found in the target galaxies when computing the axion luminosity. We then compute the hard x-ray signal that arises from the conversion of these axions to photons in each galaxy’s magnetic fields, inferred from analog galaxies in cosmological magnetohydrodynamic simulations. Analyzing NuSTAR data toward these galaxies between roughly 20 to 70 keV, we find no evidence for axions and set leading constraints on the combined axion-electron and axion-photon coupling at the level of |𝑔 𝑎⁢𝑒⁢𝑒 ×𝑔 𝑎⁢𝛾⁢𝛾 | ≲ 8.3 ×10 −27 GeV −1 for 𝑚 𝑎 ≲ 10 −10 eV at 95% confidence, with M82 providing the most stringent constraints.

Axion-like particles↗

Atlas of electron content values observed at Urbana, Illinois, 1 December 1967 - 30 December 1970

Ionospheric electron content versus local time data deduced from Faraday rotation observations of ATS-III geostationary satellite signals at Urbana, Illinois are reported. The data are presented in two forms. Values of subionospheric latitude (SILAT) and subionospheric longitude (SILON) are in degrees north and degrees west, respectively. These are computed on the basis of 350 km for the mean ionospheric height, which value is also used for the calculation of the geometric-magnetic factor, required for the conversion of the measured Faraday rotation angle to electron content. Entries of zero for the electron content in the tables represent no data for those times.

Flaherty, B. J.↗

Californium-252 production at the High Flux Isotope Reactor - II: Comparison between the highly enriched uranium and a proposed low-enriched uranium core

This is the second paper on a 252 Cf production study performed in support of efforts to convert the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. The first paper primarily focuses on validating computational tools and nuclear data. This companion paper evaluates another critical aspect: the 252 Cf production capability with a proposed LEU core. HFIR must maintain its world-class performance and missions following conversion and because 252 Cf is a vital, multipurpose neutron-emitting radioisotope, the ability to efficiently produce 252 Cf must be preserved. In this study, the HFIRCON transport and depletion tool, several nuclear data libraries, and Campaign 78 data were used to compute 252 Cf production, sensitivity, and safety metrics. Further, results indicate the 252 Cf production and production rates are slightly higher with a 95MW th LEU core compared with those obtained with the 85MW th HEU core. Additionally, the target peak fission rate densities, discharge cumulative fission densities, and heat deposition rates with the LEU core are within a few percent of those calculated with the HEU core. The findings suggest HFIR’s 252 Cf production capability can be effectively maintained with an LEU core without adversely affecting the safety metrics.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗