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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Safe Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active Distribution System Model Predictive Control with EVs and DERs

The temporal and spatial mismatch between PV generation and electric vehicle (EV) charging and discharging may cause voltage violations in active distribution networks. Despite the widespread use of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in power system optimization and control, it lacks guarantees on constraint satisfaction during both training and deployment. This paper proposes a Lagrangian-based safe DRL approach for model predictive control (MPC) of active distribution systems with large-scale integration of PVs, EVs, and energy storage systems (ESSs). A Transformer-LSTM time-series model is proposed to forecast EV charging demand, which is then formulated as a constraint to ensure charging requirements are met. Using this prediction, a Lagrangian-based safe soft actor-critic (SAC) framework is developed for real-time control in a three-phase unbalanced distribution system, enforcing voltage safety constraints while optimizing the cumulative net reward. By integrating the forecasting model with multi-period constraints, the proposed framework jointly coordinates PV systems, EV charging and discharging, and ESS scheduling within the MPC horizon. Numerical experiments on a modified IEEE 123-bus system with real-world data show that, under a high PV penetration scenario, the proposed method increases the net reward by 30.74% and reduces average voltage violations from 0.0011 p.u. to 0.0002 p.u. compared with standard SAC. Compared with the optimal power flow (OPF) approach, it achieves similar voltage security while yielding lower line losses. It also maintains real-time control capability, reducing operation latency to 53.21 ms per 15-minute control interval. The proposed method remains effective under varying PV/EV penetrations and load conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Validation with EBR-II Tests Performed During the SHRT Testing Program (Rev. 2)

The EBR-II sodium-cooled fast reactor supported a wide range of fast reactor research activities. The final fifteen years of operations at EBR-II were used for experiments and tests to demonstrate the importance of passive safety in liquid metal reactors and the capability of such systems to provide strong passive responses during off-normal conditions. The Shutdown Heat Removal Test program at EBR-II provided test data supporting the validation of computer codes for design, licensing, and operation of LMRs, among other objectives. The program included nearly sixty tests, most of which were protected and unprotected loss of flow and loss of heat sink tests run at various initial powers and flow rates. This report documents the results of modeling and simulation of tests from the Shutdown Heat Removal Test program to support validation of Argonne’s SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. SHRT-17 and SHRT-6 were protected loss of flow tests where a loss of electrical power to all sodium coolant pumps was simulated to demonstrate the effectiveness of natural circulation cooling characteristics. SHRT-45R, SHRT-39, and SHRT-43R were unprotected loss of flow tests where the control rod scram function of the plant protection system was disabled to demonstrate the effectiveness of EBR-II’s passive reactivity feedbacks. BOP-301 and BOP-302R were unprotected loss of heat sink tests that demonstrated how reactivity feedback effects driven by changes to the core inlet temperature can shut down the fission process. PICT-5/6 demonstrated how core power could be increased and decreased via changes in the intermediate sodium and feedwater flow rates. This validation activity leverages modeling and simulation efforts that originated under an International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project for benchmark analysis of the EBR-II Shutdown Heat Removal Tests. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 models originally developed for the CRP have been modernized to utilize new code features and modeling practices. Differences between the predicted and measured test data were explored and the causes of these differences were identified as being due to modeling approximations, uncertainty in transient component behavior, and instrumentation uncertainties. Overall, it was concluded that for all tests simulated there was good agreement between the flow, power, and temperature predictions and the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unsupervised Azimuth Estimation of Solar Arrays in Low-Resolution Satellite Imagery through Semantic Segmentation and Hough Transform

This paper explains the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) to segment solar panels in a satellite image containing solar arrays, and extract associated metadata from the arrays. A novel unsupervised technique is introduced to estimate the azimuth of each individual solar panel from the predicted mask of the convolutional neural network. This pipeline was developed with the aim of extracting necessary metadata for a solar installation, using only a set of latitude–longitude coordinates. Azimuth prediction results for 669 individual solar installations associated with 387 sites located across the United States are provided. A mean average error and median average error of 21.65 degrees and 1.0 degrees were obtained, respectively, when predicting the azimuth of the solar fleet data set, with about 80% of the results within an error of zero degrees of the ground truth azimuth value and about 85% within an error of 25 degrees. The predicted azimuth was then used to estimate the energy conversion of the solar arrays. Results show a 90.9 and 90.6 R-squared value for estimating alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) energy, respectively, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.70% in estimating the alternating current (AC) energy using the fully automated algorithm.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy [Slides]

In this study, we evaluate how an iterative portfolio approach compares to a more traditional capacity credit method, using the U.S. Southeast as a case study region. Using open-source planning and resource adequacy tools, we compare results using a capacity credit approximation method with those from iterating behind the two. We also explore how the iterative approach performs under a range of sensitivities, including higher load growth, regional coordination, and alternative weather years. We find that traditional capacity credit approximation methods can function well in today's system, but may face challenges for systems with higher levels of solar and storage. As such, integrating planning and resource adequacy models can address some of these gaps, helping planners deliver more reliable systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control system for multi-system coordination via a single reference governor

This report describes the improvements to the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM) component of the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework for analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM supports the HERON plug-in that solves the power dispatch problem. The solution involves economically optimal dispatches that satisfy the limits on production variables and corresponding rates of variation (explicit constraints) as well as the limits on the process variables tied to the service life of equipment (implicit constraints). The problem can be addressed as a two-stage process, i.e., HERON power dispatcher estimates a solution that meets explicit constraints (low-resolution physics), whereas FARM uses the simulation outcomes of HYBRID high-fidelity model to capture the system dynamic response and enforce implicit constraints (high-resolution physics). The initial version of the code (FARM-Alpha) was released by Argonne National Laboratory in January 2021 followed by FARM-Beta (January 2022) and FARM-Gamma (April 2022).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Defying Thermodynamics: Stabilization of Alane Within Covalent Triazine Frameworks for Reversible Hydrogen Storage

The highly unfavorable thermodynamics of direct aluminum hydrogenation can be overcome by stabilizing alane within a nanoporous bipyridine-functionalized covalent triazine framework (AlH 3 @CTF-bipyridine). This material and the counterpart AlH 3 @CTF-biphenyl rapidly desorb H 2 between 95 and 154°C, with desorption complete at 250°C. Sieverts measurements, 27 Al MAS NMR and 27 Al{ 1 H} REDOR experiments, and computational spectroscopy reveal that AlH 3 @CTF-bipyridine dehydrogenation is reversible at 60°C under 700 bar hydrogen, >10 times lower pressure than that required to hydrogenate bulk aluminum. DFT calculations and EPR measurements support an unconventional mechanism whereby strong AlH 3 binding to bipyridine results in single-electron transfer to form AlH 2 (AlH 3 ) n clusters. Here the resulting size-dependent charge redistribution alters the dehydrogenation/rehydrogenation thermochemistry, suggesting a novel strategy to enable reversibility in high-capacity metal hydrides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and optimal prediction of partially-observed complex systems

Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Protecting and Defending against Autonomous Control Systems and Digital Twin Cyber Attacks: Response Strategy for Hyperparameter attacks of Digital Twin Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Power Plants (Final)

Navigating through the complex tapestry of technological advancements, "Response Strategy for Hyperparameter attacks of Digital Twin Machine Learning Model in Nuclear Power Plants" stands at the intersection of cybersecurity and nuclear power plant operations, embarking on a journey through the intricacies of securing digital twins against malicious cyber activities. As nuclear power plants progressively integrate digital twin technology and machine learning models to optimize operations and ensure system reliability, they inadvertently expose themselves to a new spectrum of vulnerabilities, notably in the realm of hyperparameter attacks. Hyperparameters, integral in machine learning model tuning and optimal performance of digital twins, have emerged as a target for adversaries aiming to destabilize the predictive capabilities and therefore, the operational accuracy of these digital entities within critical infrastructures like nuclear plants. This paper, therefore, meticulously threads the needle through the development of a robust response strategy, poised to shield these digital reflections against calculated hyperparameter manipulations, ensuring that the digital twin can effectively and securely function as a reliable proxy for its physical counterpart. The ensuing sections delve into the orchestrated maelstrom of multi-rate time-changing intelligent coordinated hyperparameter attacks and the implementation of event-triggered predictive control, laying down a structured, predictive, and responsive framework that safeguards the nexus where the digital and physical realms of nuclear power plants coalesce. The operational integrity of digital twins in nuclear power plants depends critically on the security of machine learning hyperparameters. This study makes two different contributions. First, a decision-based idea known as a multi-rate time changing intelligent coordinated hyperparameter attack is put forth. In this attack, many hyperparameters are repeatedly changed using both random and intelligent optimal techniques by the attacker. These assaults introduce varied rates at different attack steps, compromise various amounts of hyperparameters, and improve stealth and flexibility. Second, a technique is developed for event triggered predictive control to rapidly respond to potential hyperparameter attacks. This control integrates a sliding window framework, retaining a history of previous data points and employing linear regression to predict the next data point from the current dataset. The control gain K is determined using the Lyapunov-Krasovskii method, and subsequently, an action is developed. Finally, the outcome of the simulation demonstrates the viability of the proposed method for defending nuclear power plant digital twins from hyperparameter attacks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating Data Center Impact on Grid Stability: A Coordinated Control Strategy Using Verrus StabiliGrid Architecture

Large data centers, which now represent a significant and growing share of the total U.S. grid load, can inadvertently destabilize the electrical grid when they disconnect simultaneously during brief voltage disturbances. The July 10, 2024, Eastern Interconnection incident, in which a sub-100-millisecond transmission fault triggered the cascading loss of approximately 1,500 MW of data center load, illustrates this vulnerability. While commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) deployed in data centers provide device-level fault ride-through per IEEE 1547, they lack coordination with facility protection logic and uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), limiting their effectiveness as grid-stabilizing assets. This report presents the Verrus StabiliGrid architecture, a coordinated control framework that integrates BESS, UPS, and point-of-interconnection (POI) protection settings to enable data centers to ride through both undervoltage and overvoltage grid contingencies without disconnecting. The four-step strategy encompasses: (1) high-resolution power quality monitoring to detect the grid state during events such as undervoltage, overvoltage, underfrequency, and overfrequency; (2) POI protection settings that allow for extended ride-through and grid-connected operation during grid contingencies; (3) grid state-driven autonomous dispatch of assets to improve grid resilience by reducing power draw during undervoltage or absorbing more power during overvoltage events; and (4) coordinated post-recovery dispatch of data center assets to restore firm load to pre-contingency levels. Validated through controller-hardware-in-the-loop (C-HIL) simulations at the National Laboratory of the Rockies, results show grid import restoration to pre-fault levels within 100 milliseconds of voltage recovery. This work advances the ability of data centers to transition from passive, disturbance-sensitive loads to active participants in grid stability, a capability increasingly required by emerging NERC and ERCOT regulatory frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Determining the Adsorption Energetics of 2,3-Butanediol on RuO 2 (110): Coupling First-Principles Calculations With Global Optimizers

As climate change continues to pose a threat to the Earth due to the disrupted carbon cycles and fossil fuel resources remain finite, new sources of sustainable hydrocarbons must be explored. 2,3-butanediol is a potential source to produce butene because of its sustainability as a biomass-derived sugar. Butene is an attractive product because it can be used as a precursor to jet fuel, categorizing this work in the alcohol-to-jet pathway. While studies have explored the conversion of 2,3-butanediol to butene, little is understood about the fundamental reaction itself. We quantify the energetics for three pathways that were reported in the literature in the absence of a catalyst. One of these pathways forms a 1,3-butadiene intermediate, which is a highly exothermic process and thus is unlikely to occur since 2,3-butanediol likely gets thermodynamically trapped at this intermediate. We further determined the corresponding energetics of 2,3-butanediol adsorption on an ensemble of predetermined binding sites when it interacts with a defect-free stoichiometric RuO 2 (110) surface. Within this ensemble of adsorption sites, the most favorable site has 2,3-butanediol covering a Ru 5–coordinated cation. This approach is compared to that obtained using the global optimization algorithm as implemented in the Northwest Potential Energy Surface Search Engine. When using such a global optimization algorithm, we determined a more favorable ground-state structure that was missed during the manual adsorption site testing, with an adsorption energy of -2.61 eV as compared to -2.34 eV when using the ensemble-based approach. We hypothesize that the dehydration reaction requires a stronger chemical bond, which could necessitate the formation of oxygen vacancies. As such, this study has taken the first step toward the utilization of a global optimization algorithm for the rational design of Ru-based catalysts toward the formation of butene from sustainable resources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ice rule breakdown and frustrated antiferrotoroidicity in an artificial colloidal Cairo ice

Abstract We combine experiments and numerical simulations to investigate the low energy states and the emergence of topological defects in an artificial colloidal ice in the Cairo geometry. This type of geometry is characterized by a mixed coordination ( z ), with coexistence of both z = 3 and z = 4 vertices. We realize this particle ice by confining field tunable paramagnetic colloidal particles within a lattice of topographic double wells at a one to one filling using optical tweezers. By raising the interaction strength via an applied magnetic field, we find that the ice rule breaks down, and positive monopoles with charge q = + 2 accumulate in the z = 4 vertices and are screened by negative ones ( q = − 1 ) in the z = 3. The resulting, strongly coupled state remains disordered. Further, via analysis of the mean chirality associated to each pentagonal plaquette, we find that the disordered ensemble for this geometry is massively degenerate and it corresponds to a frustrated antiferrotoroid.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

The LISE package: solvers for static and time-dependent superfluid local density approximation equations in three dimensions

Nuclear implementation of the density functional theory (DFT) is at present the only microscopic framework applicable to the whole nuclear landscape. The extension of DFT to superfluid systems in the spirit of the Kohn-Sham approach, the superfluid local density approximation (SLDA) and its extension to time-dependent situations, time-dependent superfluid local density ap- proximation (TDSLDA), have been extensively used to describe various static and dynamical problems in nuclear physics, neutron star crust, and cold atom systems. In this paper, we present the codes that solve the static and time-dependent SLDA equations in three-dimensional coordinate space without any symmetry restriction. These codes are fully parallelized with the message passing interface (MPI) library and take advantage of graphic processing units (GPU) for accelerating execution. The dynamic codes have checkpoint/restart capabilities and for initial conditions one can use any generalized Slater determinant type of wave function. The code can describe a large number of physical problems: nuclear fission, collisions of heavy ions, the interaction of quantized vor- tices with nuclei in the nuclear star crust, excitation of superfluid fermion systems by time dependent external fields, quantum shock waves, domain wall generation and propagation, the dynamics of the Anderson-Bogoliubov-Higgs mode, dynamics of fragmented condensates, vortex rings dynamics, generation and dynamics of quantized vortices, their crossing and recombinations and the incipient phases of quantum turbulence.

Jin, Shi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and application of hybrid AIMD/cDFT simulations for atomic-to-mesoscale chemistry

Many important chemical processes involve reactivity and dynamics in complex solutions. Gaining a fundamental understanding of these reaction mechanisms is a challenging goal that requires advanced computational and experimental approaches. However, important techniques such as molecular simulation have limitations in terms of scales of time, length, and system complexity. Furthermore, among the currently available solvation models, there are very few designed to describe the interaction between the molecular scale and the mesoscale. To help address this challenge, here, we establish a novel hybrid approach that couples first-principles plane-wave density functional theory with classical density functional theory (cDFT). In this approach, a region of interest described by ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) interacts with the surrounding medium described using cDFT to arrive at a self-consistent ground state. cDFT is a robust but efficient mesoscopic approach to accurate thermodynamics of bulk electrolyte solutions over a wide concentration range (up to 2M concentrations). Benchmarking against commonly used continuum models of solvation, such as SMD, as well as experiments, demonstrates that our hybrid AIMD–cDFT method is able to produce reasonable solvation energies for a variety of molecules and ions. With this model, we also examined the solvent effects on a prototype S N 2 reaction of the nucleophilic attack of a chloride ion on methyl chloride in the solution. The resulting reaction pathway profile and the solution phase barrier agree well with experiment, showing that our AIMD/cDFT hybrid approach can provide insight into the specific role of the solvent on the reaction coordinate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

E(n)-Equivariant cartesian tensor message passing interatomic potential

Machine learning potential (MLP) has been a popular topic in recent years for its capability to replace expensive first-principles calculations in some large systems. Meanwhile, message passing networks have gained significant attention due to their remarkable accuracy, and a wave of message passing networks based on Cartesian coordinates has emerged. However, the information of the node in these models is usually limited to scalars, and vectors. In this work, we propose High-order Tensor message Passing interatomic Potential (HotPP), an E(n) equivariant message passing neural network that extends the node embedding and message to an arbitrary order tensor. By performing some basic equivariant operations, high order tensors can be coupled very simply and thus the model can make direct predictions of high-order tensors such as dipole moments and polarizabilities without any modifications. The tests in several datasets show that HotPP not only achieves high accuracy in predicting target properties, but also successfully performs tasks such as calculating phonon spectra, infrared spectra, and Raman spectra, demonstrating its potential as a tool for future research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of outer-cylinder rotation on the radially heated Taylor–Couette flow

A Taylor–Couette setup with radial heating is considered where a Boussinesq fluid is sheared in the annular region between two concentric, independently rotating cylinders maintained at different temperatures. Linear stability analysis is performed to determine the Taylor number for the onset of instability. Two radius ratios corresponding to wide and thin gaps with several rotation rate ratios are considered. The rotation of the outer cylinder is found to have a general stabilizing effect on the stability threshold as compared to pure inner-cylinder rotation, with a few exceptions. The radial heating sets up an axial flow which breaks the reflection symmetry of isothermal Taylor–Couette flow in the axial coordinate. This symmetry breaking separates linear stability thresholds, and we find the fastest growing modes with both positive and negative azimuthal numbers for different parameters. Another important finding of the current study is the discovery of unstable modes in the Rayleigh-stable regime. Furthermore, closed disconnected neutral curves (CDNCs) are observed for both wide and thin gaps which can separate from or merge into open neutral–stability curves. Alternatively, CDNCs can also morph into open neutral stability curves as the rotation rate ratio is changed. CDNCs are observed to be sensitive to changes in control parameters, and their appearance/disappearance is shown to induce discontinuous jumps in the critical Taylor number. Finally, for both wide and thin gaps, the fastest-growing modes found in the pure corotation case are shown to have their origins in the instability islands at smaller values of rotation rate ratios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Moving-Wave Implementation in WRF to Study the Impact of Surface Water Waves on the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Abstract While numerous modeling studies have focused on the interaction of ocean surface waves with the atmospheric boundary layer, most employ idealized waves that are either monochromatic or synthetically generated from a theoretical wave spectrum, and the atmospheric solvers are typically incompressible. To study wind–wave coupling in real-world scenarios, a model that can simulate both realistic meteorological and wave conditions is necessary. In this paper we describe the implementation of a moving bottom boundary condition into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for large-eddy simulation applications. We first describe the moving bottom boundary conditions within WRF’s pressure-based vertical coordinate system. We then validate our code with idealized test cases that have analytical solutions, including flow over a monochromatic wave with and without viscosity. Finally, we present results from turbulent flows over a moving monochromatic wave with different wave ages, and demonstrate satisfactory agreement of the wave growth rate with results from the literature. We also compare atmospheric stress and wind parameters from two physically equivalent cases. The first specifies a wind moving in the same direction as a propagating wave, while the second involves a stationary wave with the wind adjusted such that the wind relative to the wave is the same as in the first case. Results indicate that the velocity and Reynolds stress profiles for the two cases match, further validating the moving bottom implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Iron( IV ) alkyl complexes: electronic structure contributions to Fe–C bond homolysis and migration reactions that form N–C bonds from N 2

High-valent iron alkyl complexes are rare, as they are prone to Fe–C bond homolysis. Here, we describe an unusual way to access formally iron(IV) alkyl complexes through double silylation of iron(I) alkyl dinitrogen complexes to form an NNSi 2 group. Spectroscopically validated computations show that the disilylehydrazido(2−) ligand stabilizes the formal iron(IV) oxidation state through a strongly covalent Fe–N π-interaction, in which one π-bond fits an “inverted field” description. This means that the two bonding electrons are localized more on the metal than the ligand, and thus an iron(II) resonance structure is a significant contributor, similar to the previously-reported phenyl analogue. However, in contrast to the phenyl complex which has an S = 1 ground state, the ground state of the alkyl complex is S = 2, which places one electron in the π* orbital, leading to longer and weaker Fe–N bonds. The reactivity of these hydrazido(2−) complexes is dependent on the steric and electronic properties of the specific alkyl group. When the alkyl group is the bulky trimethylsilylmethyl, the formally iron(IV) species is stable at room temperature and no migration of the alkyl ligand is observed. However, the analogous complex with the smaller methyl ligand does indeed undergo migration of the carbon-based ligand to the NNSi 2 group to form a new N–C bond. This migration is followed by isomerization of the hydrazido ligand, and the product exists as two isomers that have distinct η 1 and η 2 binding of the hydrazido group. Lastly, when the alkyl group is benzyl, the Fe–C bond homolyzes to give a three-coordinate hydrazido(2−) complex which is likely due to the greater stability of a benzyl radical compared to that for methyl or trimethylsilylmethyl. These studies demonstrate the availability of a hydrocarbyl migration pathway at formally iron(IV) centers to form new N–C bonds directly to N 2 , though product selectivity is highly dependent on the identity of the migrating group.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hawai‘i Play Fairway (Final Report)

Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗