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DOE OSTI2023

Elephants Sharing the Highway: Studying TCP Fairness in Large Transfers over High Throughput Links

Escalating bandwidth demand strains high-performance data networks, posing potential performance risks. TCP congestion control algorithms enhance reliability and optimize bandwidth usage. Network performance is influenced by factors such as AQM algorithms and router buffer size. In the context of constrained network resources, understanding how TCP flows share networks and the resulting performance impact is essential. This paper introduces insights into TCP fairness and performance involving a comparison of TCP CUBIC, Reno, Hamilton, and BBR versions 1 and 2 across real-world networks supporting high bandwidths of up to 25 Gbps. The research explores TCP behaviors with AQM algorithms like FIFO, FQ_CODEL, and RED, alongside diverse buffer sizes. Notably, findings reveal that manipulating buffers and queuing methods yields contrasting outcomes based on bandwidth. BBRv2 emerges as a superior fair algorithm, pivotal for swift transfers, particularly in scientific data scenarios. These results provide crucial guidance for future network design, ensuring equitable performance optimization.

Kiran, Mariam↗

DOE OSTI2020

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of four learning-based methods for predicting groundwater redox status

Knowing the location where groundwater denitrification occurs, or by proxy the groundwater redox status (oxic, mixed, and anoxic), is valuable information for assessing and managing potential agricultural land-use impacts on freshwater quality. We compare the efficacy of supervised (Linear Discriminant Analysis LDA; Boosted Regression Trees, BRT; and Random Forest, RF) and unsupervised (Modified Self-Organizing Map, MSOM) learning-based methods to predict groundwater redox status in the agriculturally dominated Tasman, Waikato, and Wellington regions of New Zealand. Thresholds applied to regional groundwater-quality samples provide redox status variables and learn heuristics constrained by these variables and applied to spatial factors (climate, elevation, geologic, hydrology soils, and well depth) identify optimal sets of regional predictor variables. A split-sample approach is used to train and test the learning methods ability to predict redox status using the optimal predictor variables. Overall, the supervised methods demonstrate a prediction bias toward oxic conditions and inability to perform statistically well when using independent regional data; for example, consider kappa statistics for BRT (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.38, Wellington: 0.17), RF (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.47, Wellington: 0.17 and LDA (Tasman: 0.46, Waikato: 0.32, Wellington: 0.17). By contrast, the unsupervised method performs statistically well when predicting oxic, mixed, and anoxic conditions and corresponding depths when using independent regional data; for example, consider MSOM kappa statistics for Tasman: 0.78, Waikato: 0.80, Wellington: 0.76. The unsupervised learning method provides the added benefits of being (1) able to combine predictions into 3D regional anoxic probability plots for interpreting the spatial influence of paleosols and groundwater flowpaths on redox status, and (2) readily extended to map 3D redox status across New Zealand and other countries despite data bias and sparsity.

machine learning algorithms, Random Forest, booste↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Graph Neural Networks for Collaborative Dynamic Reconfiguration and Voltage Regulation in Unbalanced Distribution Systems

Network reconfiguration has long been employed as a strategic approach to minimize power distribution system losses and effectively regulate voltage levels. Tap-changing voltage regulators are also critical for controlling bus voltages, especially in accommodating the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) with intermittent outputs. This paper introduces novel methodologies to address the challenges of dynamic reconfiguration and optimal tap setting in unbalanced three-phase distribution systems. We propose an approximated mixed-integer quadratically constrained program (MIQCP) to model dynamic reconfiguration, along with a pioneering formulation for voltage regulator (VR) tap-setting based on Special Ordered Set type 1 (SOS1). To mitigate computational complexity, we propose a physics-informed spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) with an integrated link classifier. The proposed approach enables efficient solution generation by fixing specific variables in the MIQCP instance and solving the simplified sub-MIP using an MIP solver. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior prediction accuracy of our STGCN model compared to baseline neural network models, resulting in reduced DER curtailment and voltage deviation with shorter computation time.

dynamic reconfiguration↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generating Euler Diagrams Through Combinatorial Optimization

Abstract Can a given set system be drawn as an Euler diagram? We present the first method that correctly decides this question for arbitrary set systems if the Euler diagram is required to represent each set with a single connected region. If the answer is yes, our method constructs an Euler diagram. If the answer is no, our method yields an Euler diagram for a simplified version of the set system, where a minimum number of set elements have been removed. Further, we integrate known wellformedness criteria for Euler diagrams as additional optimization objectives into our method. Our focus lies on the computation of a planar graph that is embedded in the plane to serve as the dual graph of the Euler diagram. Since even a basic version of this problem is known to be NP‐hard, we choose an approach based on integer linear programming (ILP), which allows us to compute optimal solutions with existing mathematical solvers. For this, we draw upon previous research on computing planar supports of hypergraphs and adapt existing ILP building blocks for contiguity‐constrained spatial unit allocation and the maximum planar subgraph problem. To generate Euler diagrams for large set systems, for which the proposed simplification through element removal becomes indispensable, we also present an efficient heuristic. We report on experiments with data from MovieDB and Twitter. Over all examples, including 850 non‐trivial instances, our exact optimization method failed only for one set system to find a solution without removing a set element. However, with the removal of only a few set elements, the Euler diagrams can be substantially improved with respect to our wellformedness criteria.

Computer Science↗

NASA NTRS1974

Program manual for HILTOP, a heliocentric interplanetary low thrust trajectory optimization program. Part 1: User's guide

A performance-analysis computer program, that was developed explicitly to generate optimum electric propulsion trajectory data for missions of interest in the exploration of the solar system is presented. The program was primarily designed to evaluate the performance capabilities of electric propulsion systems, and in the simulation of a wide variety of interplanetary missions. A numerical integration of the two-body, three-dimensional equations of motion and the Euler-Lagrange equations was used in the program. Transversality conditions which permit the rapid generation of converged maximum-payload trajectory data, and the optimization of numerous other performance indices for which no transversality conditions exist are included. The ability to simulate constrained optimum solutions, including trajectories having specified propulsion time and constant thrust cone angle, is also in the program. The program was designed to handle multiple-target missions with various types of encounters, such as rendezvous, stopover, orbital capture, and flyby. Performance requirements for a variety of launch vehicles can be determined.

Mann, F. I.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Various Analyses of Structures and Systems Pertaining to Optical Communications

The Optical Communications Group intends to experiment with a 2 by 2 meter Fresnel lens to determine its likelihood as an alternative to focusing mirrors for optical communications. The lens was delivered in four sections. A support structure was required for the lens in order to hold the four sections in a single flat plane with an adjustable degree angle. In order to use the 200-in. Hale telescope for optical communications purposes, an optical filter membrane must used to pass the communications wavelength while blocking sunlight wavelengths. This filter must withstand wind gusts of up to 50 miles per hour. Stress analysis predicts that the membrane will survive with a safety factor greater than two. The methods used were verified by pressure testing the material. Mechanical and thermodynamic analyses were performed on a simple Golay cell in order to optimize its dimensions for best performance. Flexures are examined as an inexpensive alternative to traditional methods for kinematically constraining a 1.5-meter spherical mirror.

Petersen, Collin W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cislunar Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit for Human Space Exploration

In order to conduct sustained human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), spacecraft systems are designed to operate in a series of missions of increasing complexity. Regardless of the destination, Moon, Mars, asteroids or beyond, there is a substantial set of common objectives that must be met. Many orbit characterization studies have endeavored to evaluate the potential locations in cislunar space that are favorable for meeting common human exploration objectives in a stepwise approach. Multiple studies, by both NASA and other international space agencies, have indicated that Earth-‐moon libration point orbits are attractive candidates for staging operations in the proving ground and beyond. In particular, the Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) has been demonstrated to meet multi-‐mission and multi-‐destination architectural constraints. However, a human mission to a selected NRO presents a variety of new challenges for mission planning. While a growing number of robotic missions have completed successful operations to various specific libration point orbits, human missions have never been conducted to orbits of this class. Human missions have unique challenges that differ significantly from robotic missions, including a lower tolerance for mission risk and additional operational constraints that are associated only with human spacecraft. In addition, neither robotic nor human missions have been operated in the NRO regime specifically, and NROs exhibit dynamical characteristics that can differ significantly as compared to other halo orbits. Finally, multi-‐body orbits, such as libration point orbits, are identified to exist in a simplified orbit model known as the Circular Restricted Three Body Problem (CRTBP) and must then be re-‐solved in the full ephemeris model. As a result, the behavior of multi-‐body orbits cannot be effectively characterized within the classical two-‐body orbit dynamics framework more familiar to the human spaceflight community. In fact, a given NRO is not identified by a set of Keplerian orbit parameters, and a valid epoch specific state vector must be first obtained from a multi-body dynamical model. In this paper, the significant performance and operational challenges of conducting human missions to the NRO are evaluated. First, a systematic process for generating full ephemeris based ballistic NROs of various families is outlined to demonstrate the relative ease in which a multi-‐revolution orbit can be found for any epoch and for various orbit geometries. In the Earth-‐Moon system, NROs, which are halo orbits with close passage over a lunar pole, can exist with respect to libration point 1 (L1) or libration point 2 (L2) and are either from a North or South family orbit class with respect to the ecliptic. Second, the ability to maintain the orbit over the lifetime of a habitat mission by applying a reliable station-keeping strategy is investigated. The NRO, while similar to the quasi-‐halo orbits that the Artemis mission flew, requires an updated station keeping strategy. This is due to several dynamical differences such as the increased relative stability of the NRO compared to other halo orbits and the close passage over the lunar surface as shown in Figure 1. Multiple station-keeping strategies are being investigated to ensure a human spacecraft remains on a predictable path. As the NRO is not described in simple two-‐body parameters, analysis must determine the best strategy for targeting a reference NRO as well as how closely a future state should be constrained. In addition, costs will be minimized by determining maneuver directionality based on an identified pattern in the optimal station-keeping solutions or an analytically derived relationship. The candidate station-keeping algorithm must be stable and robust to environmental and vehicle uncertainties as well to navigation estimation and flight control execution errors. To that end, navigation accuracies, the impact on the station-keeping execution errors as well as other vehicle uncertainties need to be assessed. Starting with Orion, current navigation accuracies are evaluated and then navigation requirements are derived assuming a desired station-keeping propellant budget. Third, the performance requirements to and from the NRO are evaluated. Important parameters for developing expected propellant costs include epoch of operation, size and type of NRO, Earth departure and return constraints, as well as abort or early-‐return capability. Finally, rendezvous and proximity operations are vital aspects of multi-‐mission human exploration endeavors. The ability to conduct rendezvous and the associated propellant costs are assessed as well as the impacts of various profile assumptions including the location within the NRO the rendezvous is performed. The results of these studies will influence plans for international cooperation on both nearer term proving ground missions and beyond.

Whitley, Ryan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Airspace Characteristics on Urban Air Mobility Airspace Capacity

As interest in urban air mobility grows, increasingly high density traffic poses a challenge for the transition to safe, efficient, and timely operations. Hundreds of simultaneously demanded flights will need to share the same fleet, infrastructure, and constrained airspace. This paper investigates the feasibility of effectively managing high density traffic in congested urban environments by optimizing the design of airspace route structures. Demand estimations for the Dallas-Fort Worth and Los Angeles areas are used to evaluate potential improvements to airspace route design with the goal to accommodate the projected level of demand.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Airspace Characteristics on Urban Air Mobility Airspace Capacity

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Faster Triphosphorylation Ribozyme

In support of the RNA world hypothesis, previous studies identified trimetaphosphate (Tmp) as a plausible energy source for RNA world organisms. In one of these studies, catalytic RNAs (ribozymes) that catalyze the triphosphorylation of RNA 5'-hydroxyl groups using Tmp were obtained by in vitro selection. One ribozyme (TPR1) was analyzed in more detail. TPR1 catalyzes the triphosphorylation reaction to a rate of 0.013 min -1 under selection conditions (50 mM Tmp, 100 mM MgCl 2 , 22°C). To identify a triphosphorylation ribozyme that catalyzes faster triphosphorylation, and possibly learn about its secondary structure TPR1 was subjected to a doped selection. The resulting ribozyme, TPR1e, contains seven mutations relative to TPR1, displays a previously unidentified duplex that constrains the ribozyme's structure, and reacts at a 24-fold faster rate than the parent ribozyme. Under optimal conditions (150 mM Tmp, 650 mM MgCl 2 , 40°C), the triphosphorylation rate of TRP1e reaches 6.8 min -1 .

Gregory F. Dolan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPIKE-Dx : A Low-Power High-Throughput Fault Diagnostics Tool using Spiking Neural Networks for Constrained Systems

Diagnostic systems are important for many aerospace systems, which are severely limited in available power, like cubesats or UAVs. Therefore, traditional diagnostics systems cannot be used due to their substantial footprint and constraints. In this paper, we present our very low power diagnostic tool SPIKE-DX to monitor critical systems with constrained computational and energy resources. This is made possible through spiking neural networks (SNNs), which are executable within optimized simulation environments and further implemented on on cutting-edge neuromorphic hardware. Based upon FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) framework, Diagnostic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) can be constructed that provide powerful means for diagnostic reasoning. In this paper, we describe such DBNs and a method to automatically translate the DBN into highly structured networks of spiking neurons for execution in SPIKE-DX.

Spiking Neural Networks↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiobjective Constrained Symbolic Regression for Predictive Modeling of Material Creep Behavior

When creep testing is repeated on samples of the same alloy under the same parametric conditions (i.e., stress and temperature), the resulting strain/time curves can vary from each other considerably as shown in Figure 1 [1]. The time required to creep test a material to rupture can extend to the order of years. Because of this, a numerical model that can quickly analyze the incomplete results of an ongoing experiment to predict 1) the incomplete portion of the strain/time curve leading up to the rupture point and 2) the rupture point itself would be of great utility to the materials community. Such a model has the potential to save 1) the time required to finish running the experiment to rupture 2) the associated monetary cost of finishing said experiment. Furthermore, it would be advantageous if the predictive model could give a parametric function modeling strain/time curves for material scientists to investigate the impact of the temperature and stress parameters on the resulting creep behavior. This work introduces a piecewise symbolic regression algorithm to predict the remainder of the strain/time curve. Preliminary results show good model performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neutrinos from the Galactic Center Hosting a Hypernova Remnant

Similar to star-forming galaxies or starburst galaxies, star-forming regions in our Galaxy can host cosmic-ray (CR) accelerators and rich gas as targets of hadronuclear interaction. By our estimations, the IceCube neutrino observatory might detect muon neutrinos from a CR accelerator associated with a molecular cloud complex in our Galaxy. The associated high-energy gamma-ray emission might be observed by the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma-Ray Observatory (HAWC), and Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory (LHAASO). Furthermore, taking the Galactic Center (GC) region as an example, we assume that a hypernova exploded in the past in the GC. We simulate the acceleration of CRs in the hypernova remnant (HNR) as well as their confinement and escape. The high-energy protons escape from the HNR, diffuse around the GC, interact with molecular clouds, and then produce gamma-rays and neutrinos. In the optimal cases, the GC would be a promising 100 TeV gamma-ray source for LHAASO’s one-month observation. We propose that neutrino-induced searching for starting track-like and high-energy starting events (HESEs) observed by IceCube, from the GC region with a radius of 1°.8, would help us discover the particle accelerator in the GC or constrain our models. Under the constraint from high-energy gamma-ray observations by the H.E.S.S. telescope, we estimate the exposure time needed to make a significant discovery for the optimal cases. The analysis combining observations of IceCube and ANTARES, starting track-like events and HESEs, future observations by neutrino detectors IceCube-Gen2 and KM3net, and gamma-ray telescopes CTA, HAWC, and LHAASO would help to constrain our models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Assessment of Recent Trends in NOx and VOC Emissions and Ozone Production Sensitivity Regimes Using Satellite Data

This presentation highlights results from a NASA Aura Science Team and Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP) project which study the capability to observe and model trends in ozone (O3) production regimes using spaceborne sensors. Ultraviolet– visible (UV–Vis) tropospheric column satellite retrievals of formaldehyde (HCHO) (a proxy for volatile organic compound [VOC] reactivity) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (a proxy for nitrogen oxides [NOx]) are frequently used to investigate the sensitivity of O3 production to emissions of NOx and VOCs. There are challenges that come from using satellite-derived ratios of HCHO and NO2 (FNR) to study O3 production sensitivity with the largest uncertainties associated with specific spaceborne sensor’s retrieval biases and errors. This study quantifies the differences and improvements in satellite retrievals of O3 production sensitivity regimes using FNRs when moving from legacy polar orbiting satellites such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA’s Aura satellite and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) onboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP platform to newer, higher spatiotemporal resolution satellite sensors TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and eventually the recently launched NASA geostationary sensor Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO). Furthermore, we investigate how using retrievals of NO2 and HCHO from these different satellites to constrain model predictions impacts the ability to accurately simulate O3 chemistry including chemical production regimes. To this end, we have conducted inverse model simulations, using the WRF-CMAQ-DDM data assimilation system at 12 km × 12 km, to constrain emissions of NOx and VOCs over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when assimilating OMI and TROPOMI retrievals of NO2 and HCHO. Two advantages of this are that we a) account for each satellite’s errors/biases in the emission estimation and b) update the prior profile to ensure that only radiance information is used for optimizing the emissions. This presentation will demonstrate: a) the varying accuracy of different satellite retrieved FNRs and ability to capture known sub-annual emission trends (e.g., seasonal, weekend/weekday) and emission anomalies during the COVID-19 lockdown of 2020, b) the differences and improvements in top-down emission estimates of NOx and VOCs when constrained by newer satellite sensors compared to legacy systems, and c) multi-sensor optimized emission estimates of summer-time NOx and VOCs between 2019-2021.

Data↗

NASA NTRS2019

Machine Learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and Optimal Algorithms to Characterize the AdvACT Kilopixel Transition-Edge Sensor Arrays

Next-generation focal planes comprising dozens of kilopixel transition-edge sensor (TES) arrays require new methods to rapidly screen candidate arrays, evaluate array non-idealities in the field, identify outlier devices for removal, and optimize the array performance in the field. We demonstrate robust methods to estimate TES parameters (critical temperatures and thermal conductivity parameters) and their uncertainties using a custom Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We also constrain systematic effects in estimating the TES parameters from non-isothermal current-voltage curves (IVs) at approximately a ~3% level. Additionally, for the first time, we have applied Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to tune detector arrays and optimize their performance.

Maria Salatino↗

NASA NTRS2023

Transient Optimization for the Betterment of Turbine Electrified Energy Management

Gas turbine engine transients are associated with degraded compressor operability, which must be addressed by the engine control system and accounted for in the engine design. Failure to do so may result in events such as compressor stall/surge and combustor blow out. Transient operability concerns constrain the engine design and can result in sacrifices of efficiency and/or thrust responsiveness. The traditional approach to transient operability management is control logic that limits the fuel flow command. A companion paper presents a strategy for optimizing the transient fuel flow control logic taking into consideration transient operability and thrust responsiveness. The study covered here extends this idea to an electrified gas turbine engine that employs a power/energy management concept known as Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM). TEEM uses an electric power system interfaced with the engine (hence the term ‘electrified gas turbine engine’) to further improve transient operability and alleviate associated design constraints. There can be costs associated with implementing TEEM in terms of power and energy requirements that impact the size of the electrical power system. However, the results of this study show that through optimization of the transient limit logic, power and energy requirements needed to implement TEEM can be significantly reduced. Among the conclusions that can be drawn from the results of the illustrative application covered herein are: (1) there is a reduction in the electric machine power requirement to manage operability during accelerations by 200 to 400 hp, and (2) power transfer from the low pressure spool (LPS) to the high pressure spool (HPS) is the most effective option for improving operability during decelerations, followed by the options of only injecting power on the HPS or only extracting power from the LPS.

Turbine Electrified Energy Management↗