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At least 973 records · Page 54
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DOE OSTI2020

Fifty Years of Research on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), first discovered by Madden and Julian in 1971, is a prominent tropical phenomenon with a typical period of 30–60 days and featured by a large-scale envelope of cloud clusters and rain systems moving eastward along the equator. The MJO significantly influences not only intense tropical rainstorms, such as hurricanes, but also extreme weather over the middle to high latitudes. Skillful prediction of the MJO several weeks ahead, therefore, will be greatly valuable for disaster mitigation purposes. However, many present-day climate models have great difficulty in realistically simulating the MJO for reasons that are not well understood. This article provides a comprehensive review of the recent progress in the observational, modeling, and theoretical study of the MJO, with a particular focus on the most recent decade. Several future research directions are also suggested to further advance our understanding and prediction capability of the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aquaplanets as a Framework for Examination of Aerosol Effects

Although fundamental to the planetary radiative balance, aerosol impacts are highly uncertain in climate simulations because of the uneven distribution of aerosol sources and the complex interactions with radiation and clouds that are difficult to represent in climate models. This study proposes that aquaplanet configurations represent an idealized framework to investigate aerosol effects. As a simple demonstration, a series of aquaplanet simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 shows that the spatial distribution of aerosol emissions changes the aerosol effective radiative forcing even with unchanged total emissions. Some statistical properties of the simulations are presented to show that relatively short model integrations yield robust results. Much of the aerosol effect is shown to arise from aerosol–cloud interactions, especially through rapid adjustments associated with the aerosol lifetime effect that alter the cloud optical thickness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding cloud droplet spectral dispersion effect using empirical and semi-analytical parameterizations in NCAR CAM5.3

Five parameterizations of cloud droplet spectral shape are implemented in a global climate model to investigate the dispersion effect and aerosol indirect effect (AIE). We design a series of experiments by modifying the microphysical cloud scheme of NCAR CAM5.3 (Community Atmospheric Model Version 5.3). We employ four empirical (Martin94, RLiu03, PengL03, Liu08) and one semi-analytical (LiuLi15) expressions for cloud droplet spectral shape parameters. Analysis focuses on the instantaneous differences in the simulated cloud microphysical properties and the comparison between model output and satellite data. The results show that RLiu03, PengL03 and LiuLi15 produce wider droplet spectrum and faster autoconversion rate, but Liu08 has a narrower droplet spectrum and slower autoconversion rate than the default parameterization (Martin94) in CAM5.3. Global dispersion effects caused by the five parameterizations modify the aerosol indirect effect by -10% (counteract) to 13% (strengthen). The simulated AIEs and dispersion effects exhibit noticeably spatial inhomogeneity. In the sensitive regions of AIE (Southeast Asia, North Pacific and west coast of South America), we decompose the response of shortwave cloud forcing to the change in droplet number for analysis. The varying dispersion effects can be explained by different responses of cloud properties in different spectral parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes

Abstract A recent study found statistically significant differences in extreme precipitation distributions over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when changing the microphysics scheme in a superparameterized global climate model. Here, we repeat the analysis globally and similarly find that differences are widespread when varying the number of predicted moments in the microphysics parameterization, but not when comparing variants of the double‐moment scheme. However, contrary to the previous study in which differences largely disappeared over CONUS when 5‐day simulations were conducted, we found that the signal in these shorter integrations remains within the tropics, implying a direct local effect of microphysics on precipitation extremes in these regions. The effect on precipitation is traced back to changes in vertical velocity profiles changes that are then amplified in the climatological simulations compared to the 5‐day ones. Finally, the superparameterized extremes, regardless of the microphysics scheme, are shown to be larger than those from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project One‐Degree Daily data set and generally smaller than those from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Parameterizing Subgrid Variations of Land Surface Heat Fluxes to the Atmosphere Improves Boreal Summer Land Precipitation Simulation With the NCAR CESM1.2

Subgrid horizontal variations of land surface heat fluxes to the atmosphere resulting from subgrid land cover heterogeneity are important in land-atmosphere interaction in global climate models (GCMs). To incorporate it, a parameterization using stochastic sampling based on truncated normal distributions diagnosed from the land model and internal ensemble mean of multiple calls to the planetary boundary layer and deep convection schemes is developed. After its implementation in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2), large changes of simulated land precipitation are found to occur in regions where large subgrid variations of surface heat fluxes exist. The simulated precipitation is improved in boreal summer, especially over eastern China and the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal. The improved precipitation is mainly a result of improved large-scale moisture convergence and advection by altered vertical diffusion and convection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Double-ITCZ as an Emergent Constraint for Future Precipitation Over Mediterranean Climate Regions in the North Hemisphere

The semi-arid Mediterranean climate regions feature wet winter and dry summer, distinct from most other regions on Earth. In response to warming, climate models project increased precipitation in US Southwest (USSW) and decreased in Mediterranean basin (MED) during winter, but with marked uncertainty. Using a multi-model ensemble, we found that models with excessive double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) biases tend to exaggerate the precipitation increase over USSW and understate the precipitation decrease over MED in the future. In this work, these relationships are attributed to the atmospheric circulation changes driven by the increased tropical rainfall and the weaker slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under warming, respectively. Constraining the present-day double-ITCZ with observations, the projected wetting over USSW is reduced to no change and the drying over MED is intensified by 32%. A relative reduction in future precipitation has profound societal and economic implications for these regions already under severe water stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Breakdown of ENSO's Relationship With Thermocline Depth in the Central-Equatorial Pacific

Recent classification of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) into two types, Eastern (EP) and Central (CP) events, has highlighted the importance of the central Pacific. We show here that the local correlation between ENSO subsurface temperatures (T sub ) in the upper 100-m and thermocline depth anomalies breaks down in the central equatorial Pacific, whereas T sub remains well correlated with sea surface height anomalies. This observed difference in the central equatorial Pacific is simulated by almost all climate models. It arises from a vertically slanted Tsub anomaly structure that is unique to the central equatorial Pacific. We show that this feature is an adiabatic response to wind-driving that is even present in a linear dynamic model, as long as the model has enough baroclinic modes to adequately represent the observed vertical complexity. Our findings have implications for better understanding the different importance of thermocline feedback in CP and EP events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Global Teleconnection Signature of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Its Modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Recent research has suggested that the tropical and extratropical character of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) depends on the state of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). With this in mind, we use both reanalysis and a global climate model (CESM2-WACCM) to analyze the global character of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric geopotential height anomalies connected with the MJO and quantify dependencies of these teleconnections on the state of the QBO. We find that the global teleconnection signature of the MJO depends upon the state of the QBO. Globally, within reanalysis the fraction of 20- to 90-day 250-hPa geopotential height variance linked to the MJO is largest during boreal winter and summer for easterly QBO phases and smallest during westerly QBO phases of boreal winter. The difference between QBO phases is mostly driven by changes in the tropical signature of the MJO, although during boreal winter the Northern Hemispheric teleconnections are particularly more prominent during easterly QBO phases. Otherwise, the QBO modulation of extratropical MJO teleconnections is mainly realized through changes in the locations of the teleconnections. A QBO-MJO relationship is also apparent within CESM2-WACCM but is weaker than that observed. This extratropical modulation implies that the regions that benefit from increased subseasonal predictability due to the MJO may also change as a function of the QBO. In a broader sense, these findings emphasize that knowledge of the tropical stratospheric state, particularly as it relates to the QBO, is important for understanding the connections between the MJO and the extratropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Atlantic Jet Response to Stratospheric Events: A Regime Perspective

The tropospheric response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) is associated with an equatorward shift in the midlatitude jet and associated storm tracks, while Strong Polar Vortex (SPV) events elicit a contrasting response. Recent analyses of the North Atlantic jet using probability density functions of a jet latitude index have identified three preferred jet latitudes, raising the question of whether the tropospheric response to SSWs and SPVs results from a change in relative frequencies of these preferred jet regimes rather than a systematic jet shift. We explore this question using atmospheric reanalysis data from 1979 to 2018 (26 SSWs and 33 SPVs), and a 202-years integration of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (92 SSWs and 68 SPVs). Following SSWs, the northern jet regime becomes less common and the central and southern regimes become more common. These changes occur almost immediately following “split” vortex events, but are more delayed following “displacement” events. In contrast, the northern regime becomes more frequent and the southern regime less frequent following SPV events. Following SSWs, composites of 500-hPa geopotential heights, surface air temperatures, and precipitation most closely resemble composites of the southern jet regime, and are generally opposite in sign to the composites of the northern jet regime. These comparisons are reversed following SPVs. Thus, one possible interpretation is that the two southernmost regimes appear to be favored following SSWs, while the southernmost regime becomes less common following SPVs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenging and Improving the Simulation of Mid-Level Mixed-Phase Clouds Over the High-Latitude Southern Ocean

Climate models exhibit major radiative biases over the Southern Ocean owing to a poor representation of mixed-phase clouds. In this study, we used the remote-sensing dataset from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) campaign to assess the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce frontal clouds off Antarctica. It focuses on the modeling of thin mid-level supercooled liquid water layers which precipitate ice. The standard version of WRF produces almost fully glaciated clouds and cannot reproduce cloud top turbulence. Our work demonstrates the importance of adapting the ice nucleation parameterization to the pristine austral atmosphere to reproduce the supercooled liquid layers. Once simulated, droplets significantly impact the cloud radiative effect by increasing downwelling longwave fluxes and decreasing downwelling shortwave fluxes at the surface. The net radiative effect is a warming of snow and ice covered surfaces and a cooling of the ocean. Despite improvements in our simulations, the local turbulent circulation related to cloud-top radiative cooling is not properly reproduced, advocating for the need to develop a parameterization for top-down convection to capture the turbulence-microphysics interplay at cloud top.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Suppressed Daytime Convection Over the Amazon River

We investigated the interaction between surface conditions and precipitating convection by comparing the Amazon River against the surrounding forest. Despite similar synoptic conditions within a few tens of kilometers, the river surface is substantially cooler than the surrounding forest during the day and warmer at night. We analyzed 20 years of high-resolution satellite precipitation data and confirmed previous findings of daytime rainfall reduction over the river for the whole Amazon Basin. The percentage reduction is strongest during the dry-to-wet transition season. In addition, the percentage reduction of individual tributary is significantly correlated with the Laplacian of surface temperature, which causes thermally driven surface divergence and suppresses local convection. Additionally, nighttime rainfall is enhanced over tributaries near the Atlantic coast during the wet season. A regional climate model then simulates the local rainfall anomalies associated with the river. Above the river, moisture diverges near the surface and converges above the surface before the daytime rainfall, partially driven by the horizontal gradient of humidity. Unlike the river, moisture convergence within the boundary layer is more critical for the rainfall above the forest region. Our studies suggest that strong thermal contrast can be important in deriving heterogeneous convection in moist tropical regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Blowing Snow at McMurdo Station, Antarctica During the AWARE Field Campaign: Surface and Ceilometer Observations

Blowing snow (BLSN) is an impactful process in cold climates, affecting regional thermodynamics, radiation properties, and the surface mass balance of snow. Though it has significant climatic impacts, the process is still poorly understood and not widely included in weather and climate models. In 2016, the AWARE Field Campaign saw the deployment of a large suite of in situ and remote sensing instruments to McMurdo Station, Antarctica allowing for investigation of BLSN. A ceilometer–based BLSN detection algorithm used elsewhere in Antarctica is applied to data from AWARE, yielding a BLSN frequency of 14.1% compared to 8.2% as detected by human observers. To increase confidence in detections, the algorithm is updated to have shorter temporal averaging and to include a variety of meteorological thresholds to limit false detections due to fog. Efforts to incorporate a laser disdrometer into the algorithm were unsuccessful. An unphysical dependence of particle size distributions on wind speed is found suggesting observations are problematic at wind speeds greater than 10 m s –1 . The revised algorithm detected a BLSN frequency of 7.4%, increasing agreement with human observations and confidence that the process is actively occurring at the observation site. Furthermore, these observations are put into context of a climatology of human observations of BLSN at McMurdo station from 2002–2018. An annual average of 8.0%–14.0% is estimated, with a total annual range of 3.4%–21.3%. Regardless of whether BLSN is observed by humans or instrument, the majority of cases at this location are associated with ongoing precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance and Accuracy Implications of Parallel Split Physics-Dynamics Coupling in the Energy Exascale Earth System Atmosphere Model

Simultaneous calculation of atmospheric processes is faster than calculating processes one at a time. This type of parallelism is beneficial or perhaps even necessary to provide good performance on modern supercomputers, which achieve faster performance through increased processor count rather than improved clock speed. The scalability of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (EAM) is limited by the fluid dynamics which scales up to the number of mesh cells in the global mesh. In contrast, the suite of physics parameterizations in EAM is scalable up to the total number of physics columns, which is an order of magnitude greater than the number of mesh cells. A proposed solution to unlocking the greater potential performance from the physics suite is to solve the physics and dynamics in parallel. This work represents a first attempt at parallel splitting of the grid-scale fluid dynamics model and the subgrid-scale physics parameterizations in a global atmosphere model. We will demonstrate that switching to parallel physics-dynamics coupling extends the scalability of the EAM to up to 3 times the previous peak scalability limit and is up to 20% faster than the sequentially split coupling at the highest core counts and the same time step. Decadal simulations of both coupling approaches show very little impact to the model climate. This improved performance does not come without drawbacks, however. Parallel splitting requires a shorter time step and other modifications which largely offset performance gains. A mass fixer is required for conservation. Techniques for mitigating these issues are also discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Importance of Secondary Ice Production

Measured ice crystal number concentrations are often orders of magnitude higher than the number concentrations of ice nucleating particles, indicating the existence of secondary ice production (SIP) in clouds. Here, we present the first study to examine the global importance of SIP through the droplet shattering during freezing of rain, ice-ice collision fragmentation, and rime splintering, using a global climate model. Our results show that SIP happens quite uniformly in the two hemispheres and dominates the ice formation in the moderately cold clouds with temperatures warmer than –15°C. SIP decreases the global annual average liquid water path by –14.6 g m –2 (–22%), increases the ice water path by 8.7 g m –2 (23%), improving the model agreement with observations. SIP changes the global annual average shortwave, longwave, and net cloud forcing by 2.1, –1.0, and 1.1 W m –2 , respectively, highlighting the importance of SIP on cloud properties on the global scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Influence of Ocean Coupling on Simulated and Projected Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA Simulations

This study aims to quantify the impacts of atmosphere–ocean coupling on simulated and projected tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation globally. We used global climate model (GCM) simulations over 1950–2050 from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) and compared its fully coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs (AOGCMs) with atmosphere-only GCMs (AGCMs). We find that ocean coupling generally leads to decreased TC precipitation over ocean and land. Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) biases are critical drivers of the precipitation difference, with secondary contributions from local TC–ocean feedbacks via SST cold wakes. The two driving factors, attributed to ocean coupling in the AOGCMs, influence TC precipitation in association with decreased TC intensity and specific humidity. The AOGCMs and AGCMs consistently project TC precipitation increases in 2015–2050 relative to 1950–2014 over ocean for all basins, and for landfalling TCs in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections

During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10-day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. Here, in this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗