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At least 973 records · Page 54

Adaptive Protection of Scientific Backbone Networks Using Machine Learning

In this article, we propose a new protection scheme for backbone networks to guarantee high service availability. The presented scheme does not require any reconfiguration immediately after the failure (i.e., it is proactive). At the same time, it does not require any reserved backup network resources either. To achieve these seemingly contradictory goals, we utilize the recent advancements in Machine Learning (ML) to implement a network intelligence that periodically re-allocates the unused capacity as protection bandwidth to meet the service availability requirements of each connection. Our goal is achieved by two components (1) predicting the traffic for the next period on each link, and (2) intelligently selecting the best fit dedicated protection scheme for the next period depending on the estimated unused (spare) bandwidth and the previous service availability violations. Note that re-allocating protection bandwidth affects neither the operational connections nor the current best practice of operators to over-provision network bandwidth to support elephant flows. Finally, we provide a case study on the real traffic from Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), a high-speed, international scientific backbone network. The key benefit of our framework is that adaptively utilizing the over-provisioned bandwidth for spare capacity is sufficient to improve the availability from three-nines to five-nines (in ESnet for the 30 examined connections). The drawback is negligible bandwidth limitations; the user perceives a minor and very temporal bandwidth limitation in less than 0.1% of the time.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Net mineralization of N at deeper soil depths as a potential mechanism for sustained forest production under elevated [CO2]

Elevated atmospheric [CO2] is projected to increase forest production, which could increase ecosystem carbon (C) storage. However, sustained forest production will depend on the nutrient balance of the forested ecosystem. Our aim was to examine the causes and consequences of increased fine-root production and mortality throughout the soil profile under elevated CO2 with respect to potential gross nitrogen (N) cycling rates. Our study was conducted in a CO2-enriched sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.) plantation in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. We used isotope pool dilution methodology to measure potential gross N cycling rates in laboratory incubations of soil from four depth increments to 60 cm. Our objectives were two-fold: (1) determine whether N is available for root acquisition in deeper soil, and (2) determine whether increased inputs of labile C from greater fine-root mortality at depth under elevated [CO2] had altered N cycling rates. While gross N fluxes declined with soil depth, we found that N is potentially available for roots to access, especially below 15 cm depth where microbial consumption of mineral N was reduced. Overall, up to 60% of potential gross N mineralization, and 100% of potential net N mineralization, occurred below 15-cm depth at this site. This finding was supported by in situ measurements from ion-exchange resins, where total inorganic N availability at 55 cm depth was equal to or greater than N availability at 15 cm depth. While it is likely that trees grown under elevated [CO2] are accessing a larger pool of inorganic N by mining deeper soil, we found no effect of elevated [CO2] on potential gross or net N cycling rates. Thus, increased root exploration of the soil volume under elevated [CO2] may be more important than changes in potential gross N cycling rates in sustaining forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Update of distillers grains displacement ratios for corn ethanol life-cycle analysis.

Production of corn-based ethanol (either by wet milling or by dry milling) yields the following coproducts: distillers grains with solubles (DGS), corn gluten meal (CGM), corn gluten feed (CGF), and corn oil. Of these coproducts, all except corn oil can replace conventional animal feeds, such as corn, soybean meal, and urea. Displacement ratios of corn-ethanol coproducts including DGS, CGM, and CGF were last updated in 1998 at a workshop at Argonne National Laboratory on the basis of input from a group of experts on animal feeds, including Prof. Klopfenstein (University of Nebraska, Lincoln), Prof. Berger (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign), Mr. Madson (Rapheal Katzen International Associates, Inc.), and Prof. Trenkle (Iowa State University) (Wang 1999). Table 1 presents current dry milling coproduct displacement ratios being used in the GREET model. The current effort focuses on updating displacement ratios of dry milling corn-ethanol coproducts used in the animal feed industry. Because of the increased availability and use of these coproducts as animal feeds, more information is available on how these coproducts replace conventional animal feeds. To glean this information, it is also important to understand how industry selects feed. Because of the wide variety of available feeds, animal nutritionists use commercial software (such as Brill Formulation{trademark}) for feed formulation. The software recommends feed for the animal on the basis of the nutritional characteristics, availability, and price of various animal feeds, as well as on the nutritional requirements of the animal (Corn Refiners Association 2006). Therefore, feed formulation considers both the economic and the nutritional characteristics of feed products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Assessing the Predictive Capability of the LIFEIV Nuclear Fuel Performance Code Using Sequential Calibration

This report considers the problem of calibrating a numerical model to data from an experimental campaign (or series of experimental tests). The issue is that when an experimental campaign is proposed, only the input parameters associated with each experiment are known (i.e. outputs are not known because the experiments have yet to be conducted). Faced with such a situation, it would be beneficial from the standpoint of resource management to carefully consider the sequence in which the experiments are conducted. In this way, the resources available for experimental tests may be allocated in a way that best 'informs' the calibration of the numerical model. To address this concern, the authors propose decomposing the input design space of the experimental campaign into its principal components. Subsequently, the utility (to be explained) of each experimental test to the principal components of the input design space is used to formulate the sequence in which the experimental tests will be used for model calibration purposes. The results reported herein build on those presented and discussed in [1,2] wherein Verification & Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VU) capabilities were applied to the nuclear fuel performance code LIFEIV. In addition to the raw results from the sequential calibration studies derived from the above, a description of the data within the context of the Predictive Maturity Index (PMI) will also be provided. The PMI [3,4] is a metric initiated and developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to quantitatively describe the ability of a numerical model to make predictions in the absence of experimental data, where it is noted that 'predictions in the absence of experimental data' is not synonymous with extrapolation. This simply reflects the fact that resources do not exist such that each and every execution of the numerical model can be compared against experimental data. If such resources existed, the justification for numerical models would be reduced considerably. The authors note that the PMI is primarily intended to provide a high-level, quantitative description of year-to-year (or version-to-version) improvements in numerical models, where these descriptions can be used as a means of justifying funding requests to support further model development research. It is in this context that the present report should be considered: the availability of data from experimental tests should be viewed as a time-dependent variable, where experiments are added to the calibration suite as resources become available. For the present report, the experimental data is of course already available (permitting demonstration of the proposed methodology). Furthermore, the authors are not proposing this methodology as the answer to the question of how to allocate resources for experimental tests, and readers are directed to [5] and the references contained in Section 1 of [5] for additional information on the subject. However, the strength of this methodology is that it offers a means by which to select the sequence of experiments in a pre-arranged experimental campaign (a situation for which the methods discussed in [5] are less appropriate). The report is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the methodology employed to formulate the sequences of experiments for the calibrations performed for this study. Section 3 then presents the results associated with two sequences; supplementary results are provided in the Appendix. The report then concludes in Section 4 with a brief summary.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Mapping and Assessment of the United States Ocean Wave Energy Resource

This project estimates the naturally available and technically recoverable U.S. wave energy resources, using a 51-month Wavewatch III hindcast database developed especially for this study by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Centers for Environmental Prediction. For total resource estimation, wave power density in terms of kilowatts per meter is aggregated across a unit diameter circle. This approach is fully consistent with accepted global practice and includes the resource made available by the lateral transfer of wave energy along wave crests, which enables wave diffraction to substantially reestablish wave power densities within a few kilometers of a linear array, even for fixed terminator devices. The total available wave energy resource along the U.S. continental shelf edge, based on accumulating unit circle wave power densities, is estimated to be 2,640 TWh/yr, broken down as follows: 590 TWh/yr for the West Coast, 240 TWh/yr for the East Coast, 80 TWh/yr for the Gulf of Mexico, 1570 TWh/yr for Alaska, 130 TWh/yr for Hawaii, and 30 TWh/yr for Puerto Rico. The total recoverable wave energy resource, as constrained by an array capacity packing density of 15 megawatts per kilometer of coastline, with a 100-fold operating range between threshold and maximum operating conditions in terms of input wave power density available to such arrays, yields a total recoverable resource along the U.S. continental shelf edge of 1,170 TWh/yr, broken down as follows: 250 TWh/yr for the West Coast, 160 TWh/yr for the East Coast, 60 TWh/yr for the Gulf of Mexico, 620 TWh/yr for Alaska, 80 TWh/yr for Hawaii, and 20 TWh/yr for Puerto Rico.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Mapping and Assessment of the United States Ocean Wave Energy Resource

This project estimates the naturally available and technically recoverable U.S. wave energy resources, using a 51-month Wavewatch III hindcast database developed especially for this study by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Centers for Environmental Prediction. For total resource estimation, wave power density in terms of kilowatts per meter is aggregated across a unit diameter circle. This approach is fully consistent with accepted global practice and includes the resource made available by the lateral transfer of wave energy along wave crests, which enables wave diffraction to substantially reestablish wave power densities within a few kilometers of a linear array, even for fixed terminator devices. The total available wave energy resource along the U.S. continental shelf edge, based on accumulating unit circle wave power densities, is estimated to be 2,640 TWh/yr, broken down as follows: 590 TWh/yr for the West Coast, 240 TWh/yr for the East Coast, 80 TWh/yr for the Gulf of Mexico, 1570 TWh/yr for Alaska, 130 TWh/yr for Hawaii, and 30 TWh/yr for Puerto Rico. The total recoverable wave energy resource, as constrained by an array capacity packing density of 15 megawatts per kilometer of coastline, with a 100-fold operating range between threshold and maximum operating conditions in terms of input wave power density available to such arrays, yields a total recoverable resource along the U.S. continental shelf edge of 1,170 TWh/yr, broken down as follows: 250 TWh/yr for the West Coast, 160 TWh/yr for the East Coast, 60 TWh/yr for the Gulf of Mexico, 620 TWh/yr for Alaska, 80 TWh/yr for Hawaii, and 20 TWh/yr for Puerto Rico.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Highly Accurate Method for Real-Time Active Power Reserve Estimation for Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plants

This paper applies a robust technique for determining the available power from a curtailed utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plant. The proposed technique does not require deploying any additional equipment or sensors and is based only on the addition of new control logic to the existing power plant controller. Also, the proposed method is universally applicable to PV plants with any type of smart inverters and PV modules. Accurate determination of available power is important for using curtailed PV generation as a resource for various types of active power controls, such as spinning reserves and primary and secondary frequency control. For PV plants to be able to maintain the desired regulation range, the plant controller must be able to estimate the available aggregate peak power that all the plant's inverters can produce at any point in time and ensure that the control error stays within the tolerance band at all times. In this paper, we explore a highly accurate control method that uses dedicated inverters within the plant as reference units and evaluates the available aggregate peak power for the whole plant under different cloud variability conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Soil Oxygen Limits Microbial Phosphorus Utilization in Humid Tropical Forest Soils

Soil phosphorus (P) availability is of special interest in many humid tropical forests, especially those on highly weathered, iron (Fe)- and aluminum (Al)-rich soils where P often limits net primary productivity. Phosphorus cycling is partly dependent on the ability of microbes to compete for P with Fe and Al minerals, which strongly bind P. Soil P availability is also indirectly affected by soil redox conditions due to its effects on microbial activity and reductive dissolution of Fe oxides that may weaken Fe-O-P sorption strength. Here, we explored P sorption, soil Fe (II) concentrations, soil CO2 production, organic and inorganic P pools, and microbial biomass P in tropical soils that typically experience frequent low redox (valley soils), or fluctuating redox conditions (slope soils). Soils from both topographic positions were pre-incubated under oxic or anoxic headspaces and then amended with a mixture of P (as orthophosphate) and carbon (C, as acetate, to maintain microbial activity) and incubated in the dark for 24 h. Phosphorus sorption to the mineral phase occurred on a time scale of seconds to minutes in valley and slope soils, reflecting strong abiotic P sorption capacity. Valley soils were characterized by inherently higher Fe(II) concentrations and lower respiration rates. Under anoxic headspaces, Fe(II) concentrations increased 3-to 5-fold in the both soils. Soil respiration and microbial P utilization declined significantly in both soils under anoxic conditions, regardless of Fe(II) concentrations. Microbial P concentrations were highest when slope soils were incubated under an oxic headspace, despite the high P sorption under these conditions. Our results suggest that microbial P utilization is indirectly limited by low O2 availability and that microbes are able to effectively compete with minerals for P under Fe-oxidizing conditions. These results emphasize the central role of soil microorganisms in regulating P availability, even in the presence of strong abiotic sorption capacity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental warming decreases arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization in prairie plants along a Mediterranean climate gradient

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) provide numerous services to their plant symbionts. Understanding climate change effects on AMF, and the resulting plant responses, is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses at regional and global scales. We investigated how the effects of climate change on AMF-plant symbioses are mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics. We used a combination of a greenhouse experiment and a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA to examine this question. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on AMF colonization. Warming directly decreased AMF colonization across plant species and across the climate gradient of the study region. Other positive and negative indirect effects of warming, mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics, canceled each other out. A warming-induced decrease in AMF colonization would likely have substantial consequences for plant communities and ecosystem function. Moreover, predicted increases in more intense droughts and heavier rains for this region could shift the balance among indirect causal pathways, and either exacerbate or mitigate the negative, direct effect of increased temperature on AMF colonization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ion Source Development at the SNS

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) now routinely operates near 1 MW of beam power on target with a highly-persistent ~38 mA peak current in the linac and an availability of ~90%. The ~1 ms-long, 60 Hz, ~50 mA H- beam pulses are extracted from a Cs-enhanced, multi-cusp, RF-driven, internal-antenna ion source. An electrostatic LEBT (Low Energy Beam Transport) focuses the 65 kV beam into the RFQ accelerator. The ion source and LEBT have normally a combined availability of ~99%. Although much progress has been made over the last years to achieve this level of availability further improvements are desirable. Failures of the internal antenna and occasionally impaired electron dump insulators require several source replacements per year. An attempt to overcome the antenna issues with an AlN external antenna source early in 2009 had to be terminated due to availability issues. This report provides a comprehensive review of the design, experimental history, status, and description of recently updated components and future plans for this ion source. The mechanical design for improved electron dump vacuum feedthroughs is also presented, which is compatible with the baseline and both external antenna ion sources.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Systems Engineering Provides Successful High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Project

This paper describes two Systems Engineering Studies completed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to support development of the High Temperature Stream Electrolysis (HTSE) process. HTSE produces hydrogen from water using nuclear power and was selected by the Department of Energy (DOE) for integration with the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). The first study was a reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) analysis to identify critical areas for technology development based on available information regarding expected component performance. An HTSE process baseline flowsheet at commercial scale was used as a basis. The NGNP project also established a process and capability to perform future RAM analyses. The analysis identified which components had the greatest impact on HTSE process availability and indicated that the HTSE process could achieve over 90% availability. The second study developed a series of life-cycle cost estimates for the various scale-ups required to demonstrate the HTSE process. Both studies were useful in identifying near- and long-term efforts necessary for successful HTSE process deployment. The size of demonstrations to support scale-up was refined, which is essential to estimate near- and long-term cost and schedule. The life-cycle funding profile, with high-level allocations, was identified as the program transitions from experiment scale R&D to engineering scale demonstration.

08 HYDROGEN↗

PET imaging predicts future body weight and cocaine preference

Deficits in dopamine D2/D3 receptor (D2R/D3R) binding availability using PET imaging have been reported in obese humans and rodents. Similar deficits have been reported in cocaine-addicts and cocaine-exposed primates. We found that D2R/D3R binding availability negatively correlated with measures of body weight at the time of scan (ventral striatum), at 1 (ventral striatum) and 2 months (dorsal and ventral striatum) post scan in rats. Cocaine preference was negatively correlated with D2R/D3R binding availability 2 months (ventral striatum) post scan. Our findings suggest that inherent deficits in striatal D2R/D3R signaling are related to obesity and drug addiction susceptibility and that ventral and dorsal striatum serve dissociable roles in maintaining weight gain and cocaine preference. Measuring D2R/D3R binding availability provides a way for assessing susceptibility to weight gain and cocaine abuse in rodents and given the translational nature of PET imaging, potentially primates and humans.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A First Look at the Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging on the Electric Grid in the EV Project

ECOtality was awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to lead a large-scale electric vehicle charging infrastructure demonstration, called The EV Project. ECOtality has partnered with Nissan North America, General Motors, the Idaho National Laboratory, and others to deploy and collect data from over 5,000 Nissan LEAFsTM and Chevrolet Volts and over 10,000 charging systems in 18 regions across the United States. This paper summarizes usage of residential charging units in The EV Project, based on data collected through the end of 2011. This information is provided to help analysts assess the impact on the electric grid of early adopter charging of grid-connected electric drive vehicles. A method of data aggregation was developed to summarize charging unit usage by the means of two metrics: charging availability and charging demand. Charging availability is plotted to show the percentage of charging units connected to a vehicle over time. Charging demand is plotted to show charging demand on the electric gird over time. Charging availability for residential charging units is similar in each EV Project region. It is low during the day, steadily increases in evening, and remains high at night. Charging demand, however, varies by region. Two EV Project regions were examined to identify regional differences. In Nashville, where EV Project participants do not have time-of-use electricity rates, demand increases each evening as charging availability increases, starting at about 16:00. Demand peaks in the 20:00 hour on weekdays. In San Francisco, where the majority of EV Project participants have the option of choosing a time-of-use rate plan from their electric utility, demand spikes at 00:00. This coincides with the beginning of the off-peak electricity rate period. Demand peaks at 01:00.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Measurement Quality Objective Considerations for Residual Alpha Surface Radioactivity Measurements at Remediation Sites - 16522

Surveys for residual alpha surface radioactivity on materials, equipment, and other non-porous surfaces are most-commonly performed using the traditional 'best available' equipment. The best available equipment for measuring alpha surface radioactivity includes portable gas-flow proportional or scintillation detectors with active surface areas typically ranging from 50 to 800 square centimeters (cm{sup 2}). The measurement equipment is offered by numerous service providers and instrument vendors applying basic detection principles that date back to the early-Atomic Age. The detector face is held as close to the surface as possible and scanned at a typical rate of 2 to 5 centimeters per second (cm/s). Any audible or visual indication of elevated alpha activity would result in a more careful assessment of the possible 'hot spot'. Modern surface contamination surveys continue to employ these best available technologies while endeavoring to achieve ever more restrictive measurement quality objectives and screening or release criteria. This paper considers the possibly unforeseen consequences to sensitivity and precision as scanning speeds are reduced to meet constraining measurement quality objectives. Sensitivity calculations are conducted to demonstrate how application of real-world efficiencies and the most common survey approaches are inadequate to meet sensitivity objectives based on American National Standard N13.12-2013, Surface and Volume Radioactivity Standards for Clearance screening criteria. Alternate data collection and assessment methodologies are offered to enhance the defensibility of collected data with stakeholders. Limitations of available or applied alpha survey technologies should be considered when establishing survey programs at project sites where alpha-emitting radionuclides are expected to contribute to residual surface radioactivity. These include but are not limited to nuclear fuel-cycle sites, military/weapons/energy research and production facilities, and 19.-20. Century-era commercial/ industrial/research/medical facilities where radioactive materials were handled. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Software Dependability

The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief introduction of Software Dependability and a summary of lessons learned. The components of Software Dependability vary among standards, however there is agreement among the standards that reliability, availability and maintainability are some the main components of dependability. Safety is also a main component is safety systems. Although reliability and safety are similar there is an additional difference, safety can withstand some level of fault tolerance. For the purposes of this discussion Software Dependability includes reliability, availability, maintainability and safety. Software Dependability: Trustworthiness of a computer system such that reliance can be justifiably placed on the service it delivers. Reliability, availability, and maintainability are aspects of dependability. Reliability: The ability of a system or component to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time. Availability: The degree to which a system or component is operational and accessible when required for use. Often expressed as a probability. Maintainability: Speed and ease with which a program can be corrected or changed. Safety: a measure of the length of time the software system can be expected to run before failing in such a way as to cause a system hazard. (author)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Corrective Maintenance Paradigm Shift at Hanford's Tank Farms - 20077

Hanford's Tank Farms facilities have been used to safely store waste for over 70 years, with the first single-shell tanks being constructed in 1943. Tank Farm facilities consist of 149 single-shell tanks, 28 double-shell tanks, an evaporator facility, and wastewater treatment facilities. Tank Farm facilities are aging, with a tremendous corrective maintenance burden on the Tank Farm contractor. The mission of Tank Farm facilities is soon changing from waste storage to waste staging for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). WTP operations will demand a significant increase in Tank Farm facility operations, in which corrective maintenance outage windows will shrink drastically. This realization has forced the Tank Farm contractor to consider a paradigm shift in Tank Farm facilities Maintenance planning, and the use of reliability Engineering tools. The Tank Farm Production Operations Engineering Cognizant System Engineering (CSE) organization has led the way in motivating this paradigm shift. This shift has been realized through the use of: 1) technical exchange with other Department of Energy (DOE) contractors to develop improvements in the CSE program, 2) a shift from the use of lagging to leading system health indicators, and 3) a Plant Health Committee to unite Engineering, Operations, and Maintenance personnel toward a productive maintenance strategy. The CSE organization has held several technical exchanges with other DOE contractors to discuss CSE concepts, and how to better maintain aging infrastructure. The technical exchange with other contractors has greatly reduced the time required to make improvements in the Tank Farm CSE program. Other DOE contractors have already faced issues surrounding aging infrastructure, and have vast experience in improving the reliability and usable life of structures and components in nuclear facilities. The past CSE program used lagging health indicators to determine the health of systems. The key lagging indicator used to determine system health was availability, which is the percentage of time that a facility was ready for operation compared to the time the facility was demanded for operation. Availability was a good indicator of health in the waste storage mission of Tank Farms, where safe storage was the most important function of the facility, and where maintenance outage windows were typically long-duration. In current and future operations, outage windows are reducing, resulting in the need for much more reliable systems. Systems that have had high availability may suddenly become inoperable due to a failed component or sub-system. In several instances, the use of availability as an indicator of system health failed to predict system/equipment failure before its occurrence. In discussions with other DOE contractors, a set of reliability tools, including leading indicators of health, has been implemented in the CSE program. This primarily involves the use of failure modes and effects analysis and the study of equipment failure to develop system monitoring plans that focus on trending data to detect oncoming equipment failure ahead of time. In addition, the use of a Plant Health Committee has added significantly to the paradigm shift from a corrective maintenance philosophy to the use of predictive and preventive maintenance. The Plant Health Committee is a chartered team consisting of Engineering, Operations, and Maintenance personnel. CSEs use this forum to present the results of their performance monitoring, including the presentation of health via leading health indicators. The most positive aspect of this committee is the communication that it creates within these critical organizations. The Operations and Maintenance organization benefit from focusing maintenance on the reliability-centered focus provided by Engineering. Engineering benefits from the operational experience of the Operations organization and from the failure data that can be provided by Maintenance personnel. The continued use of the Plant Health Committee is expected to further decrease maintenance outage times, in better support of oncoming 24/7 operations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Matching ecohydrological processes and scales of banded vegetation patterns in semiarid catchments

While the claim that water-carbon interactions result in spatially coherent vegetation patterning is rarely disputed in many arid and semiarid regions, the significance of the detailed water pathways and other high frequency variability remain an open question. How the short temporal scale meteorological fluctuations form the long-term spatial variability of available soil water in complex terrains due to the various hydrological, land surface, and vegetation dynamic feedbacks frames the scope of the work here. Knowledge of the detailed mechanistic feedbacks among soil, plants, and the atmosphere will lead to advances in our understanding of plant water availability in arid and semiarid ecosystems and will provide insights for future model development concerning vegetation pattern formation. In this paper, quantitative estimates of water fluxes and vegetation productivity are provided for a semiarid ecosystem with established vegetation bands on hillslopes using numerical simulations. A state-of-the-science process based ecohydrological model is used, which resolves hydrological and plant physiological processes at the relevant space and time scales, for relatively small periods (e.g., decades) of mature ecosystems (i.e., spatially static vegetation distribution). To unfold the mechanisms that shape the spatial distribution of soil moisture, plant productivity and the relevant surface/subsurface and atmospheric water fluxes, idealized hillslope numerical experiments are constructed, where the effects of soil type, slope steepness, and overland flow accumulation area are quantified. Those mechanisms are also simulated in the presence of complex topography features on landscapes. Finally, the main results are (a) short temporal scale meteorological variability and accurate representation of the scales at which each ecohydrological process operates are crucial for the estimation of the spatial variability of soil water availability to the plant root zone; (b) water fluxes such as evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff-run-on, and subsurface soil water movement have a dynamic short temporal scale behavior that determines the long-term spatial organization of plant soil water availability in ecosystems with established vegetation patterns; and (c) hypotheses concerning the hydrological responses that can lead to vegetation pattern formation have to accommodate realistic and physically based representations of the fast dynamics of key ecohydrological fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

Abstract Most of the Earth System Models ( ESMs ) project increases in net primary productivity ( NPP ) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO 2 , none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP . The C stock‐based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP ) 2.6 and RCP8.5 , respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP ‐based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648–1606 Tg P for RCP2 .6 and 924–2110 Tg P for RCP8 .5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP ‐based demand and C stock‐based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗