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At least 973 records · Page 54

Enabling DER Participation in Frequency Regulation Markets

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are playing an increasing role in ancillary services for the bulk grid, particularly in frequency regulation. In this article, we propose a framework for collections of DERs, combined to form microgrids and controlled by aggregators, to participate in frequency regulation markets. Our approach covers both the identification of bids for the market clearing stage and the mechanisms for the real-time allocation of the regulation signal. The proposed framework is hierarchical, consisting of a top layer and a bottom layer. The top layer consists of the aggregators communicating in a distributed fashion to optimally disaggregate the regulation signal requested by the system operator. The bottom layer consists of the DERs inside each microgrid whose power levels are adjusted so that the tie line power matches the output of the corresponding aggregator in the top layer. The coordination at the top layer requires the knowledge of cost functions, ramp rates, and capacity bounds of the aggregators. We develop meaningful abstractions for these quantities respecting the power flow constraints and taking into account the load uncertainties and propose a provably correct distributed algorithm for optimal disaggregation of regulation signals among the microgrids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mechanism Analysis of Wind Turbine Var Oscillations

Electromagnetic transient simulation of parallel connected 4-MW type-3 wind turbines based on original equipment manufacturer's real-code turbine model shows 1.2-Hz turbine-turbine oscillations in reactive power. This letter reveals why such oscillations occur in the individual var measurement, while being insignificant in the total var measurement, regardless of the varying grid impedance. We adopt two analysis approaches: open-loop single-input single-output analysis and network decomposition. The two approaches differ in their treatment of turbine-network interaction. The open-loop analysis shows that the turbine-turbine oscillation mode is due to an open-loop system pole being attracted to an open-loop system zero. Furthermore, we use network decomposition method to explain why this mode is observable in individual vars while not observable in the total var. The entire system of n -turbines can be viewed as n decoupled circuits. For the two-turbine case, the system has an aggregated mode and a turbine-turbine oscillation mode. Here, the aggregated mode is associated with a circuit associated with the total var, while the turbine-turbine oscillation mode is associated with the var difference and is insensitive to the grid parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mechanism Design for Demand Response Programs

Demand response (DR) programs serve to reduce the consumption of electricity at times when the supply is scarce and expensive. Consumers or agents with flexible consumption profiles are recruited by an aggregator who manages the DR program. The aggregator calls on a subset of its pool of recruited agents to reduce their electricity use during DR events. Agents are paid for reducing their energy consumption from contractually established baselines. Baselines are counter-factual consumption estimates of the energy an agent would have consumed if they were not participating in the DR program. Baselines are used to determine payments to agents. This creates an incentive for agents to inflate their baselines in order to increase the payments they receive. There are several newsworthy cases of agents gaming their baseline for economic benefit. We propose a novel self-reported baseline mechanism (SRBM) where each agent reports its baseline and marginal utility. These reports are strategic and need not be truthful. Based on the reported information, the aggregator selects or calls on agents with a certain probability to meet the load reduction target. Called agents are paid for observed reductions from their self-reported baselines. Agents who are not called face penalties for consumption shortfalls below their baselines. Under SRBM, we show that truthful reporting of baseline consumption and marginal utility is a dominant strategy. Thus, SRBM eliminates the incentive for agents to inflate baselines. SRBM is assured to meet the load reduction target. To conclude, we show that SRBM is almost optimal in the metric of average cost of DR provision faced by the aggregator.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Flexibility Estimation and Control of Thermostatically Controlled Loads with Lock Time for Regulation Service

A virtual battery model is a simple and general method to quantify aggregate flexibility from thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), enabling grid operators to effectively coordinate a large number of flexible building loads with supplyside resources in power systems. Lockout controls are designed to avoid wear and tear resulting from short-cycling of hardware. The lock on/off time could significantly affect aggregate flexibility from TCLs to provide ancillary services and may even fail control algorithms designed without considering the lock time constraints. This paper focuses on flexibility estimation and control design for TCLs with lock time constraints to provide frequency regulation service. We first investigate the potential impacts of lock time on TCLs’ aggregate flexibility and control performance. Both control-dependent and control-independent power bounds are derived, based on either previous TCL switching operations or regulation signals. While the control-dependent method provides aggregate flexibility for a given control method, the control-independent method calculates the theoretical maximum of power bounds. Two control algorithms are proposed to better distribute flexibility over time and thereby improve signal tracking performance. The proposed methods are illustrated and validated through simulations.

Wang, Peng↗

A Novel Framework for Optimizing Ramping Capability of Hybrid Energy Storage Systems

Hybrid Energy Storage System has been widely applied in aerospace, electric vehicle, and microgrid applications. The advantages are that they include complimentary technologies with both high power and energy capabilities. HESS have the potential to be useful to the bulk power systems, for example to increase the value of energy produced by variable generation resource through enabling participation in ancillary service markets. Actualizing the benefits of HESSs requires optimizing the combined ramping capability of aggregated HESS resources. To provide quality ancillary service, source of HESSs locating at multiple sites of variable generation resource must be optimally sized and cohesively controlled. Optimizing aggregated resources can be formulated as an optimization problem. Successfully solving this problem not only requires using effective solution methods but also depends on accurately and rapidly setting the necessary parameters in the problem formula. This article proposes a novel framework with double-layer structure to solve the optimization problem of aggregating ramping capability. Program developed on the upper layer focuses on solving the optimization of aggregating ramping capability among multiple HESSs and is compatible with most existing optimization algorithms. Program on lower layer of the framework targets at optimizing the local control of a single HESS based on a thorough analytics of HESS operation strategy presented in this article. Result of local optimization is also provided to upper layer program for updating the parameters in formula of optimization problem. Real time hardware-in-the-loop test is conducted to verify the performance of the optimization framework developed. The work presented is expected to provide guidance for implementing this framework in practical operation.

Luo, Yushen↗

A Study of Cost-Saving Potential of Load Flexibility Measures in Grid-Interactive Multifamily Buildings

With recent advances in smart technologies, more and more smart devices are penetrating the residential and commercial buildings market. The introduction of these smart devices is also helping IoT companies emerge with load aggregator roles in the sector. With more utility companies on the track of supporting OpenADR protocols, the aggregators could play a significant role in providing load flexibilities by automatically responding to demand response (DR) events and coordinating load flexibility measures between customers. This would benefit utility companies by reducing stress on the grid during critical peak demand hours as well as customers by allowing them to utilize utility rate structures advantageous to those able to reduce electric usage during high-demand hours. This study evaluates cost and energy savings from adopting multiple load flexibility measures in multifamily buildings. Combinations of different load flexibility measures, including space temperature floating, light dimming, automatic window shading, and water heater temperature floating, are considered. The simulations are performed using OpenStudio®, an open-source U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) simulation platform. For the case study, we used a midrise apartment building with weather conditions from Denver, Colorado. To compare climate zone differences, simulations were also performed for Los Angeles, California, and Chicago, Illinois. Initial results indicate that the application of automated load flexibility measures without careful consideration of dispatching strategies and DR program enrollments could significantly affect the savings. To get meaningful cost savings, aggregators need to encourage tenant awareness to curtail energy usage through occupant behavior in addition to dispatching automatic load flexibility measures. The outcomes from this study are believed to help load aggregators understand the risks and benefits of load flexibility opportunities.

building energy modeling↗

Enabling full-scale grain boundary mitigation in polycrystalline perovskite solids

There exists a considerable density of interaggregate grain boundaries (GBs) and intra-aggregate GBs in polycrystalline perovskites. Mitigation of intra-aggregate GBs is equally notable to that of interaggregate GBs as intra-aggregate GBs can also cause detrimental effects on the photovoltaic performances of perovskite solar cells (PSCs). Here, we demonstrate full-scale GB mitigation ranging from nanoscale intra-aggregate to submicron-scale interaggregate GBs, by modulating the crystallization kinetics using a judiciously designed brominated arylamine trimer. The optimized GB-mitigated perovskite films exhibit reduced nonradiative recombination, and their corresponding mesostructured PSCs show substantially enhanced device efficiency and long-term stability under illumination, humidity, or heat stress. The versatility of our strategy is also verified upon applying it to different categories of PSCs. Our discovery not only specifies a rarely addressed perspective concerning fundamental studies of perovskites at nanoscale but also opens a route to obtain high-quality solution-processed polycrystalline perovskites for high-performance optoelectronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluating the Influence of Hemorheological Parameters on Circulating Tumor Cell Trajectory and Simulation Time

Extravasation of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) occurs primarily in the microvasculature, where flow and cell interactions significantly affect the blood rheology. Capturing cell trajectory at this scale requires the coupling of several interaction models, leading to increased computational cost that scales as more cells are added or the domain size is increased. In this work, we focus on micro-scale vessels and study the influence of certain hemorheological factors, including the presence of red blood cell aggregation, hematocrit level, microvessel size, and shear rate, on the trajectory of a circulating tumor cell. We determine which of the aforementioned factors significantly affect CTC motion and identify those which can potentially be disregarded, thus reducing simulation time. We measure the effect of these elements by studying the radial CTC movement and runtime at various combinations of these hemorheological parameters. To accurately capture blood flow dynamics and single cell movement, we perform high-fidelity hemodynamic simulations at a sub-micron resolution using our in-house fluid dynamics solver, HARVEY. We find that increasing hematocrit increases the likelihood of tumor cell margination, which is exacerbated by the presence of red blood cell aggregation. As microvessel diameter increases, there is no major CTC movement towards the wall; however, including aggregation causes the CTC to marginate quicker as the vessel size increases. Finally, as the shear rate is increased, the presence of aggregation has a diminished effect on tumor cell margination.

Roychowdhury, Sayan↗

Software defined grid energy storage

Today, consumer battery installations are isolated, physical devices. Virtual power plants (VPPs) allow consumer devices to aggregate for grid services, but they are are vertically integrated, vendor controlled systems (e.g., Tesla’s VPP). Consumer batteries are therefore unable to participate in energy markets or other grid services outside what their vendor provides. We describe a software system that provides software control of multiple, networked battery energy storage systems in the electric grid. The system introduces two new ideas that enable flexible and dependable management of energy storage. The first is a virtual battery, which can either partition a battery or aggregate multiple batteries. The second is a reservation-based API which allows asynchronous control of batteries to meet contractual guarantees in a safe and dependable manner. Virtual batteries and a reservation-based API address the unique challenges of achieving high and efficient utilization of energy storage systems, including heterogeneity of battery systems such as varying C-rates, participation in energy markets, utility bill management systems, community resource sharing, and reliability. Using a testbed comprised of sonnen Inc. storage units installed in several homes and a lab, we demonstrate that virtualized batteries can seamlessly replace physical batteries, flexibly manage energy storage resources, isolate multiple clients using a shared battery, and create new energy storage applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Co-simulation Framework for Community-scale Building-grid Integration [SWR-21-75]

Distributed energy resources (DERs), including rooftop solar, energy storage, and flexible loads, are gaining popularity as costs decline and as building owners and utilities realize their benefits. DERs can improve distribution system efficiency, help prevent the need for expensive grid upgrades, and increase the resilience of local communities. However, they can also cause difficulties in grid operations and can require controls to achieve their benefits. To address this challenge, NREL researchers have developed a community-scale solution that assesses the impacts of DERs and their control strategies on a distribution system. The framework has been shown to reduce solar photovoltaic (PV) curtailment to 0%, mitigate the adverse impact of solar variability on the distribution voltage, and provide up to 5-day critical load support during emergency events. Utilizing 5 different modules representing the feeder, buildings, home energy management systems, an aggregator, and a utility controller, NREL expects this simulation technology to play a critical role in the continued integration of DERs. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), solar curtailments accounted for 94% of the total energy curtailed in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) in 2020. By enabling Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utility operators to bring solar curtailments to 0%, the electrical grid can become less dependent on fossil-fueled power generation sources. NREL's co-simulation framework contains five major components: Distribution Feeder Model: describes the distribution feeder topology using OpenDSS, including the locations of all DERs. Residential Building Model: simulates a large number of buildings at a high resolution using OCHRETM. The model is equipped to control equipment based on signals from an external module. The model includes major household appliances such as HVAC and a water heater, non-dispatchable load models, a distributed PV system, and a home battery system. Home Energy Management System: optimizes the controls for the devices in a home using foreseeTM. The control can adjust based on the user preferences including cost, comfort, and convenience. In hierarchical control scenarios, where the houses follow signals from an aggregator, the home energy management system provides a flexibility band with a range of power and follows the dispatch signals received from aggregator. Community-Level Aggregator: solves for optimal energy dispatch based on the flexibility bands received from each home and the grid service signal received from the utility controller. Utility-Level Controller: provides grid signals for voltage control using Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), such as solar systems, in the community.

Balamurugan, Sivasathya Pradha↗

Uncertainty Quantification in Vibro-Acoustics Diagnosis of Alkali-Silica Reaction Degradation in Medium-Sized Concrete Samples

The objectives of this ongoing research project focus on health monitoring and data analytics of concrete slabs containing reactive aggregates and thus subjected to degradation due to alkali-silica reaction (ASR). A controlled concrete slab with four pockets of reactive aggregates (pure silica, wells, placitas, and spratt) was cast at Vanderbilt University and cured in representative conditions to accelerate degradation due to ASR. A set of four concrete samples were also cast and cured at the University of Alabama for ASR testing. Of these four samples, two slabs contained reactive aggregates while the other two had the non-reactive aggregate counterparts mixed throughout the samples. Vibro-acoustic testing was used on these slabs to locate ASR damage within the reactive samples. Vibro-acoustic modulation (VAM) is a vibration-based NDE method that utilizes signatures of nonlinear dynamic interactions on contact surfaces of crack or delamination damage to detect and localize the damage. VAM analysis was conducted on both the Vanderbilt and Alabama samples using multiple variables for damage detection and localization. The results from the data analysis of the vibro-acoustic testing on concrete slabs cured at Vanderbilt University and the University of Alabama are discussed in detail in this report. Results for damage localization are dependent on multiple variables used in the vibro-acoustic modulation experiments. A major focus of this report is to quantify the uncertainty in the diagnosis due to multiple factors and uncertainty sources. The uncertainty quantification methodology presented in this report was applied to VAM-based diagnosis and prognosis. However, the methodology is general, and is capable of being applied to multiple technique that collect spatially distributed data. Future work needs to investigate the incorporation of uncertainty quantification in developing a robust Prognostics and Health Management framework. Digital image correlation is a three-dimensional, full-field, optical NDE technique to measure contour, deformation, vibration, and strain. The application of the digital image correlation technique to study ASR-related degradation on a large concrete specimen at the University of Tennessee is discussed and observations are presented in this report.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Environmental Effects Assessment for Proposed Offshore Wind Farm off the Coast of Grays Harbor, Washington

Grays Harbor Wind LLC (GHW) is proposing to develop a floating offshore wind farm offshore of west Grays Harbor County, Washington (Grays Harbor). The proposed GHW Offshore Wind Project (Project) would entail construction, installation and operation of a 1,000-megawatt (MW) offshore wind farm consisting of approximately 75 floating units, each containing a floating foundation and wind turbine generator (WTG). The Project location is approximately 25 miles (21.7 nautical miles [nmi]) offshore west of Grays Harbor, at waters depths of 360 to 700 feet. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was contracted by Herrera Environmental Consultants, Inc. on behalf of GHW to carry out this preliminary scoping study to evaluate baseline conditions and potential effects on fish and marine mammals from development and operation of a floating offshore wind farm installed within a designated area off the coast of Washington1. Floating offshore wind units installed in an ocean environment as part of the Project would interact with marine wildlife. This Study report provides an initial data aggregation and analysis, using publicly available data, of the Project effects, both negative and positive, on the marine environment. The scope of this assessment is limited by the fact that the Project development is presently at the conceptual level. Data on marine organisms were aggregated and evaluated; however seabirds were evaluated by Herrera Environmental Consulting and, along with bats, were not included in the scope of this study. Significant additional work is necessary to characterize ocean, seafloor, and environmental conditions; select appropriate floating offshore wind technologies; identify construction methods and locations; and assess facility locations, including electrical interconnection. Data aggregation and analysis of seabirds and bats is also needed. Evaluation of the full range of potential environmental effects would be conducted following an award of a lease from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) as part of the leasing, National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)/State Environmental Policy Act (SEPA) environmental review and permitting processes. While this initial data aggregation and analysis uses best available public scientific information and current assumptions about the Project configuration, the effects discussed herein are based on the status of review to-date and may change as Project-specific details are developed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Building ENergy Demand (BEND) Model: A Comprehensive Composite Building Energy Modeling Framework

The Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model was developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate climate-dependent hourly building energy demand with the ability to disaggregate down to or aggregate up to any geographic area of interest, including counties, states, electric utility service territories, and census regions. The BEND modeling framework is designed to study the effects of climate change, economics, technology advancement, and various mitigation policies on aggregate building energy demand. To make the process computationally feasible, BEND reduces granularity in building characteristics and weather forcing while maintaining enough detail to minimize systematic differences (biases) between BEND results and data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Based on the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) and Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) databases, BEND establishes a set of representative buildings with predefined sets of building types, sizes, and vintages. These representative buildings are defined for each of the four U.S. census regions and the five climate zones used by the EIA for building surveys (hereafter “EIA climate zones”). BEND’s representative buildings are based on a statistical analysis of the CBECS and RECS databases that infers detailed parameters such as construction type, thermal properties, internal loads, equipment and mechanical systems, and operation schedules from the high-level descriptors in those databases (building type, vintage, size, and location). The representative buildings are simplified and consolidated into a set of prototype buildings for the purpose of simulating building energy demand. Combining the prototype buildings with weather files from selected locations and years, BEND creates a set of simulation-ready building models to be run using the EnergyPlus simulation engine (EnergyPlus). The base spatial unit of each BEND simulation is a subregion that is the intersection of an International Energy Conservation Code climate zone, a census region, and an EIA climate zone; analysis for each spatial unit is influenced by the weather file BEND selects to represent the climate-similar area. The major simulation outputs of interest to BEND are hourly energy consumption values for each simulated year, possibly for multiple fuel types. Based on building-stock weights derived from the CBECS/RECS data, the hourly output streams are aggregated to a single, 8760-hour load profile for each of the major building categories—residential and commercial—with the possibility of segregating by fuel types. To correct for biases inherent in the use of a limited suite of representative buildings, BEND is calibrated against observational targets of total annual building energy consumption and hourly load profiles (including peak demand) obtained for the decision-relevant geographic scales of interest (e.g., total electric load data for individual balancing authorities available from EIA). Based on available data such as population distribution, BEND is able to aggregate both up and down scales, allowing the study of building energy demand over a range of spatial scales (e.g., states or counties within the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Eastern Interconnection, or the entire U.S.) and/or subsets of building types (e.g., office buildings with particular size ranges).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Overcoming the Technical Challenges of Coordinating Distributed Load Resources at Scale (Final Report)

Significant recent research has investigated the potential for loads to provide balancing services to the grid. However, this research has not addressed key issues that may arise when such schemes are applied at scale including: 1. Distribution Network Issues. Coordination of large numbers of loads could result in power flows that violate distribution network constraints; 2. Stability Issues. Certain strategies to control loads can exhibit nonlinearity in the form of period-adding bifurcations and chaos. Other control strategies can potentially synchronize the behavior of large numbers of loads. In both cases, the outcome can be power oscillations and instability; 3. Communication Network Issues. Bidirectional low-latency communication channels between a central controller (or several distributed controllers) and each resource are expensive and likely not necessary for effective coordination. Our research questions were: What network, stability, and communication issues might arise in practice when we coordinate large aggregations of loads? How can we coordinate loads to achieve performance objectives in a cost effective manner while avoiding these issues? The ultimate technical goal of the project was the development of network-aware, communication-constrained, non-disruptive load control strategies with stability guarantees that achieve the performance requirements of typical balancing services at a sufficiently low cost to enable the load aggregator and customer to profit. The overall goal was to establish credibility for load control at scale and contribute to U.S. energy security and environmental goals. The team succeeded in answering these research questions and developing these control strategies. The overall approach was based on the development of three testing environments: a simulation testbed, an experimental testbed (20 physical model houses with window-box air conditioners) coupled with the simulation testbed, and a field testbed (100 actual homes in Austin, TX) coupled with the simulation testbed, which enabled controller testing, identification of issues, controller development, and controller validation. The resulting controller was used to demonstrate fast timescale grid balancing (frequency regulation) by aggregations of physical and virtual air conditioners, with sufficient quality to participate in the electricity market. Cost benefit analysis showed overall benefits to the participating households, load aggregators, and the grid, especially if the control technology was integrated directly into existing programmable communicating thermostats. The project provides a variety of wider benefits. Our technology transfer and outreach activities lead us to choose an open-source licensing commercialization pathway, enabling the project results to be available to researchers, industry, and the public. Furthermore, new grid balancing technologies will increase grid flexibility and will enable higher penetrations of intermittent renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to be connected to the grid, reducing its environmental impact, and mitigating climate change to the benefit of society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

FERC Order No. 2222 and Considerations for Distributed Wind

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued Order No. 2222 in October 2020. The rule directs Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators (ISOs) to amend their tariffs and participation models to accommodate heterogeneous distributed energy resource (DER) aggregations in the wholesale energy markets that they operate, including capacity, energy, and ancillary service markets. The Commission issued the rule to better capture the benefits provided by DERs deployed in the United States, whose use has been expanding rapidly. The Commission defines DERs as “any resource located on the distribution system, any subsystem thereof or behind a customer meter,” including but not limited to “electric storage resources, distributed generation, demand response, energy efficiency, thermal storage, and electric vehicles and their supply equipment.” The rule aims to increase DER participation in wholesale markets by allowing the creation of DER aggregations, in which multiple DERs that are too small to meet minimum capacity requirements for wholesale markets individually would be able to participate in markets as a single unit. As of June 20, 2023, all ISOs have filed initial compliance plans and a number have begun implementation. Compliance dates range from 2024 to 2029, with Midcontinent ISO having the latest date of compliance proposed for 2029. Southwest Power Pool still has an outstanding date, having no final order yet from FERC, but a target date of the third quarter of calendar year 2025. The rule, which is technology agnostic and requires ISOs to create participation plans that accommodate different DERs, provides an opportunity for distributed wind market expansion. In addition, distributed wind can bring benefits to heterogenous DER aggregations. These benefits include resource diversity (i.e., a complementary generation profile to other types of distributed generation), its small footprint and ability to be co-located with load, and its potential to provide frequency response, voltage support, and black start services, among other ancillary services. This report provides a status update on FERC Order No. 2222, the current state of ISO compliance, and information relevant to the distributed wind industry as DER aggregators and other stakeholders expand their participation to wholesale energy markets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Distributed Wind and Impacts of FERC Order No. 2222 Implementation

In September of 2020, FERC issued Order No. 2222, directing ISOs to adjust their long-standing tariffs and participation models to enable the operation of distributed energy resource (DER) aggregators in wholesale energy markets. The rule sought to bring wholesale markets under its jurisdiction up to speed with existing expansion of DERs across the United States and to capture the potential benefits that these technologies can provide. This report describes the implementation of FERC Order No. 2222 and the compliance plans that have been submitted so far, attempt to understand the potential impact the rule may have on distributed wind, and provide opportunities for future work to analyze and encourage deployment under these policy conditions. There is an information gap for the type of market interactions distributed wind may have or how it could be best deployed in DER aggregations under future market conditions. There is significant potential for profitable deployment of distributed wind in states that are served by ISOs and covered under Order No. 2222. Distributed wind and other DERs provide local energy that does not need to travel those distances and avoids the losses typically associated with long-distance energy transmission. Deployment of distributed wind can benefit communities that exist away from large load centers by providing local, clean, and affordable energy. Aggregating DERs that include distributed wind could provide these benefits across multiple far-ranging communities if they have access to participate in wholesale markets. A new baseline valuation of distributed wind in areas covered by Order No. 2222 is required to accurately gauge where it is profitable and how it can compete or complement existing or future DER deployment, including as part of an aggregate.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Radiation-induced Alteration of Meta-chert

Concrete aggregate identified as “meta-chert” was irradiated with gamma-rays and neutrons. To identify the volume expansion of the aggregate under neutron irradiation, herein the following analyses were performed for pristine and irradiated α-quartz and meta-chert: X-ray diffraction (XRD)/Rietveld analysis, dimension change, water pycnometry, He-pycnometry, light optical microscopy (LOM), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). From the difference of volume expansion observed from dimension change and water / helium pycnometry, the crack opening inside the aggregate subjected to irradiation was elucidated, and this was confirmed by LOM and SEM analysis. The crack contribution to the expansion of the aggregate was significant for neutron fluence > 6.99 × 1019 n/cm 2 , for E ≥ 0.01 MeV. Based on the XRD analysis, changes in lattice parameters were identified and the cell volume expansion was compared with the data by helium pycnometry. Based on the density change calculation and phase calculation data, the density of X-ray amorphous phase was consistent with that of expanded crystal α-quartz.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗