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At least 973 records · Page 54

High-Resolution Fire Weather Index Data for the Conterminous US (1980–2099), Version 1

This dataset presents a suite of high-resolution fire weather index datasets calculated from observation (gridMet, Livneh, Daymet V4), reanalysis (AgERA5), downscaled hydro-climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on multiple selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Aside from the daily FWI datasets, we also include a set of FWI extreme indicators at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, including 1) fwixx: maximum FWI; 2) fwisa: mean FWI. For annual fwisa, it refers to the season with the maximum seasonal average; 3) fwils: Length of fire season over a specified period, where fire season is defined as the days exceeding the median value of the normalized FWI during the reference period (1980-1984); 4) fwixd: Number of extreme fire weather days over a specified period, where extreme day is defined as the day with FWI > the 95th percentile of the FWI during the reference period (1980-1984). All FWI datasets cover 1980-2020 baseline and the model simulated products including the downscaled products additionally include 2021-2099 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century

Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21 st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21 st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Paleotopography controls weathering of Cambrian-age profiles beneath the Great Unconformity, St. Francois Mountains, SE Missouri, U.S.A.

ABSTRACT Precambrian (1.4 to 1.5 Ga) granite and rhyolite in the St. Francois Mountains at the northeast corner of the Ozark Plateau in Missouri has been altered down to a depth up to 8 meters below the Great Unconformity (the contact between Paleozoic sedimentary rock and underlying Precambrian). Petrographic, geochemical, and mineralogic data indicate that at least two events generated this alteration: 1) surficial weathering due to subaerial exposure of the granite before Cambrian burial—this material is preserved as a paleosol; and 2) alteration due to reaction with basinal fluids channeled along the unconformity from nearby sedimentary basins long after burial by Paleozoic strata. To assess the variation between surficial weathering and basinal fluid alteration, we measured and sampled for petrologic, geochemical, and mineralogic data in the rock at and just below the Great Unconformity at three paleoelevations. Whole-rock geochemical oxide and X-ray diffraction data indicate that K-metasomatism and highly crystalline illite occurred in each profile. The K increase reflects crystallization of authigenic feldspar and illite from basinal fluids that were channeled along the Great Unconformity during younger Paleozoic fluid-flow events. Each profile also exhibits an upward increase in altered feldspar crystals and highly crystalline kaolinite, and an upward decrease in Ca and Na. Such changes reflect soil formation due to reaction with meteoric water before Cambrian burial, indicating that the altered granite was a paleosol before Paleozoic basinal fluid-flow events. Notably, the paleosol at the highest paleoelevation displays the least amount of paleoweathering and the paleosol at the lowest displays the greatest amount of paleoweathering. These results demonstrate that not only can characteristics of the paleosol just below the Great Unconformity be recognized in the St. Francois Mountains, despite subsequent alteration, but also it is possible to detect variations in soil thickness that were controlled by slope steepness and, therefore, water availability and/or soil creep or failure. This spatial relationship is compatible with studies of modern soils which indicate that soil character varies with position on a slope.

Geology↗

Evaluation of the US Department of Energy Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (2010-2014)

This report contains results from analysis conducted on each of the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) grants awarded to 16 organizations by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in 2010. The purpose of WIPP was to explore the potential adoptability or replicability of innovative processes or technologies for the enhancement of DOE’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). DOE initiated the WIPP grant to accelerate effective innovations in home energy efficiency and other WAP mission-related goals for income-qualifying households of low socioeconomic status. This study was performed alongside a broader, national evaluation of WAP conducted by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for DOE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coding a Weather Model: DOE-FIU Science & Technology Workforce Development Program.

DOE Fellow, Andres Cremisini, completed a 10-week internship with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Under the management of Kristopher Klingler and the mentorship of Jon Bradley, he was tasked with conceiving and coding a realistic weather model for use in physical security applications. The objective was to make a weather model that could use real data to accurately predict wind and precipitation conditions at any location of interest on the globe at any user-determined time. The intern received guidance on software design, the C++ programming language and clear communication of project goals and ongoing progress. In addition, Mr. Cremisini was given license to structure the program however he best saw fit, an experience that will benefit ongoing research endeavors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the performance of the immersed boundary method within the grey zone for improved weather forecasts in the HRRR model

Improved performance of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather forecast in regions of complex terrain is a primary goal of the second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2). The HRRR forecast uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a horizontal resolution of 3 km and includes an experimental nest over the WFIP2 study area with 750 m horizontal resolution. At these resolutions the complex terrain of the WFIP2 study area, the Columbia River Gorge, is well resolved and can include steep terrain slopes. The terrain-following coordinate system used by the WRF model is susceptible to numerical instabilities as model resolution and resolved terrain slopes increase. The immersed boundary method (IBM) has been shown to reduce these instabilities at very high resolutions (roughly 10 m or less), and thus use of IBM is desirable for high resolution simulations over the WFIP2 study area. However, accuracy of the IBM appears to degrade with coarser grid resolution and the sensitivities of IBMs to grid resolution are not well understood. In this report, we work to understand the accuracy and performance of the IBM at coarser resolutions with the goal of developing an IBM for use in the grey zone, or the intermediate scales between mesoscale and large-eddy simulation. Here, several existing immersed boundary algorithms from the literature are implemented into WRF, along with a new implementation developed during this project. The IBM algorithms for the atmospheric boundary layer are evaluated within the WRF model for a range of grid resolutions. While the strong performance of IBMs at high-resolution is confirmed, important model sensitivities are also revealed. Particular focus is placed on IBM performance at intermediate grid resolutions, which to this point has not been studied in the atmospheric modeling literature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extreme Weather and Climate Vulnerabilities of the Electric Grid: A Summary of Environmental Sensitivity Quantification Methods

Climate hazards and extreme weather affect all components of the electric grid system, from generation to end use. Increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability, more intense storm events, and sea level rise affect the ability of the electric grid to produce and transmit electricity from fossil, nuclear, and existing and emerging renewable energy sources. Most electricity infrastructure is built for past or current climate conditions. Due to long lifetimes, electricity systems are likely to be exposed more frequently to more extreme climate conditions than those for which they were designed, and may not operate as intended under changing climate conditions. Utilities, regulators, state energy offices, and other electricity system planners are beginning to conduct environmental risk assessments, develop climate resilience plans, and incorporate changing climate conditions into long-term planning processes. Here, we highlight the analytical resources available for sensitivity assessment of electrical grid components under extreme weather and climate, and identify gaps in the literature on quantitative methods available for assessment of component vulnerability.

Dumas, Melissa↗

A Quantum-AI Framework for Extreme Weather Prediction

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in North America will likely increase with a changing climate. High resolution simulations are necessary to advance process-based understanding of weather events at local scales accompanying future changes in global atmospheric circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Weather impacts on solar PV operations summary of the current body of knowledge and implications for further investigation

There is growing concern that severe weather events are negatively affecting solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and pose ongoing and unrecognized risks. Clearly research is needed to quantify and characterize the risks so that properly calibrated improvements can be implemented. To begin this process, this report is a collection of information of severe weather impacts on solar PV available today taken from research, insurance data, and field inspections. While it is not comprehensive enough to draw conclusions, this information provides a baseline for action and indicates an urgent need to investigate further.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-Variable Parametric Analysis of Prototype Building Energy Performance Using Current and Future Weather Scenarios For Data-Driven Market Transformation Support

This project aimed to develop a public building simulation data set that may be used to inform building code development and guidelines for building innovation. The data set consists of several common building types and many representative locations across the United States. A parametric design of building properties was developed to create a range of building energy models that represent common building design decisions with a particular focus on fenestration options. The US Department of Energy prototype building energy models were altered according to a parametric building design and simulated using both current weather data and future weather estimates derived from global climate models. The resulting data set allows for pertinent exploration of building design parameters, including fenestration, within different environments across the United States in the broader context of climate change.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator: Energy Resilience for Mission Assurance

The Multi-scenario extreme weather simulator (MEWS) is a stochastic weather generation tool. The MEWS algorithm uses 50 or more years of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) daily summaries [1] for maximum and minimum temperature and NOAA climate norms [2] to calculate historical heat wave and cold snap statistics. The algorithm takes these statistics and shifts them according to multiplication factors provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical basis technical summary [3] for heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

RePOWERD: Restoration of Power Outage from Wide-area Severe Weather Disruptions

The purpose of the RePOWERD project is to develop a probabilistic and a simulation based power restoration forecasting model for tropical storms based on geographic utility service areas, impacts to energy infrastructures and transportation networks, time-varying customer outage number, crew information (i.e., crew size, crew staging requirements), and utility restoration plans. Energy infrastructure is a critical lifeline essential for the United States’ national and economic security. Like other critical infrastructures, this infrastructure is aging and is at a high risk of damages from extreme weather events. Based on the number of reported outages in EAGLE-I during 2020 and 2021, it is evident that the current energy infrastructure is not equipped to handle extreme event impacts and will contribute to significant outages. From a resilience perspective, it is essential to forecast restoration time in the event of a severe weather induced power outage to assist the US Department of Energy, emergency managers, and first responders with resource planning. This project contributes to this crucial need. This report details the models, that were developed in this pilot study, to determine the rate of restoration and estimated time of restoration (ETR) during tropical storm events within counties and utility service areas based on damage to energy infrastructures and total number of customers experiencing outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Solar Pathways in Federal Energy Assistance Programs: Expanding the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) and the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP)

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) and U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) are federal programs to help low-income households reduce their energy costs. LIHEAP provides direct assistance to help households cover energy costs and stay connected to utility services, as well as weatherization and minor energy-related repairs, and WAP provides no-cost energy efficiency measures to reduce energy use and energy bills while also improving home comfort for income-qualified households. Across the U.S., states are implementing or considering solar energy as an eligible measure for LIHEAP and/or WAP funding, but the successful implementation pathways remain largely undocumented. This report fills that gap by analyzing states' LIHEAP and WAP annual plans, surveying administrators from LIHEAP grant recipients and WAP grantees about their challenges implementing solar or barriers to doing so, and conducting interviews and workshops with program administrators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SWIFT: Single-pass, Weather Independent Fractionation Technology for Improved Property Control of Corn Stover Feedstock

Corn stover is an abundant source of biomass that can be utilized for bioenergy production, representing 70% of the available crop residues in the U.S. However, recent projections estimate that over 60% of corn stover will be collected at moisture levels that exceed 20% moisture (wet basis), resulting in instability in conventional baled logistics systems due to unwanted microbial degradation. This biomass challenge can be solved with a paradigm-shifting technology or SWIFT: Single-pass, Weather Independent Fractionation Technology. SWIFT streamlines collection by eliminating multiple time-consuming, costly, non-value-added, field and weather-dependent steps that comprise the current state of the art in corn stover harvest. The unique approach envisions simultaneous harvest and collection of high, dry matter, whole-plant corn (i.e., stover plus grain) combined with anaerobic storage and fractionation as a means to positively influence the physical and chemical characteristics of corn stover biomass and the resulting feedstock.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Assessing Historical Extreme Weather Event Impacts

Understanding how past extreme weather events have affected a site is an integral part of site-level resilience planning. Energy and water resilience planning has been a key priority for the federal government for many years and agencies look to develop processes for identifying and addressing critical resilience gaps at their facilities and across their sites. The purpose of this information paper is to help inform how organizations could begin structuring a comprehensive process for recording the impacts of extreme weather events in order to facilitate climate vulnerability assessments, and thus, resilience planning. The paper highlights current limitations for developing event history assessments and suggests a framework for more consistently capturing key data points.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emerald Connections Weatherization Plus Health Pilot Program

The Emerald Connections Weatherization Plus Health Pilot Program (Healthy Homes Pilot or the pilot), delivered 97 comprehensive energy retrofits to low-income households in two underserved communities: Lynn, Massachusetts (57) and the Beacon Hill neighborhood in Seattle, Washington (40). Designed by Emerald Cities Collaborative (ECC) and funded via a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Enhancement and Innovation (E&I) grant, ECC created the pilot to expand the reach and range of services typically available to participating WAP households.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Present Weather Detector / Raw Data

The present weather detector data provide NWS weather type and codes and visibility metrics. These data would be helpful to easily detect fog over the barge.

17 WIND ENERGY↗