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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Interactive effects of elevated CO 2 , warming, reduced rainfall, and nitrogen on leaf gas exchange in five perennial grassland species

Abstract Global changes can interact to affect photosynthesis and thus ecosystem carbon capture, yet few multi‐factor field studies exist to examine such interactions. Here, we evaluate leaf gas exchange responses of five perennial grassland species from four functional groups to individual and interactive global changes in an open‐air experiment in Minnesota, USA, including elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ), warming, reduced rainfall and increased soil nitrogen supply. All four factors influenced leaf net photosynthesis and/or stomatal conductance, but almost all effects were context‐dependent, i.e. they differed among species, varied with levels of other treatments and/or depended on environmental conditions. Firstly, the response of photosynthesis to eCO 2 depended on species and nitrogen, became more positive as vapour pressure deficit increased and, for a C 4 grass and a legume, was more positive under reduced rainfall. Secondly, reduced rainfall increased photosynthesis in three functionally distinct species, potentially via acclimation to low soil moisture. Thirdly, warming had positive, neutral or negative effects on photosynthesis depending on species and rainfall. Overall, our results show that interactions among global changes and environmental conditions may complicate predictions based on simple theoretical expectations of main effects, and that the factors and interactions influencing photosynthesis vary among herbaceous species.

Pastore, Melissa A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

An online replanning method using warm start optimization and aperture morphing for flattening-filter-free beams

Purpose: In a situation where a couch shift for patient positioning is not preferred or prohibited (e.g., MR-linac), segment aperture morphing (SAM) can address target dislocation and deformation. For IMRT/VMAT with flattening-filter-free (FFF) beams, however, SAM method would lead to an adverse translational dose effect due to the beam unflattening. Here the authors propose a new two-step process to address both the translational effect of FFF beams and the target deformation. Methods: The replanning method consists of an offline and an online step. The offline step is to create a series of preshifted-plans (PSPs) obtained by a so-called “warm start” optimization (starting optimization from the original plan, rather than from scratch) at a series of isocenter shifts. The PSPs all have the same number of segments with very similar shapes, since the warm start optimization only adjusts the MLC positions instead of regenerating them. In the online step, a new plan is obtained by picking the closest PSP or linearly interpolating the MLC positions and the monitor units of the closest PSPs for the shift determined from the image of the day. This two-step process is completely automated and almost instantaneous (no optimization or dose calculation needed). The previously developed SAM algorithm is then applied for daily deformation. The authors tested the method on sample prostate and pancreas cases. Results: The two-step interpolation method can account for the adverse dose effects from FFF beams, while SAM corrects for the target deformation. Plan interpolation method is effective in diminishing the unflat beam effect and may allow reducing the required number of PSPs. The whole process takes the same time as the previously reported SAM process (5–10 min). Conclusions: The new two-step method plus SAM can address both the translation effects of FFF beams and target deformation, and can be executed in full automation except the delineation of target contour required by the SAM process.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, theworld’s largest ocean,where relatively fresh surface waters inhibitNorth Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redoxsensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: Joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions

We present a framework for quantifying the spatial and temporal co-occurrence of climate stresses in a nonstationary climate. We find that, globally, anthropogenic climate forcing has doubled the joint probability of years that are both warm and dry in the same location (relative to the 1961–1990 baseline). In addition, the joint probability that key crop and pasture regions simultaneously experience severely warm conditions in conjunction with dry years has also increased, including high statistical confidence that human influence has increased the probability of previously unprecedented co-occurring combinations. Further, we find that ambitious emissions mitigation, such as that in the United Nations Paris Agreement, substantially curbs increases in the probability that extremely hot years co-occur with low precipitation simultaneously in multiple regions. Our methodology can be applied to other climate variables, providing critical insight for a number of sectors that are accustomed to deploying resources based on historical probabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. In conclusion, when this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The global warming hiatus's irrelevance

In 2009, we argued that short periods of warming or cooling in the observed global average temperature were inconsequential to conclusions about either the existence or magnitude of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, natural variations on interannual and interdecadal time scales are combined with the effect of human-forcing factors in the observational record, and it came as no surprise that warming of the climate system is episodic and interspersed with stagnant and even cooling periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Response to Comment on “The whole-soil carbon flux in response to warming”

Temperature records and model predictions demonstrate that deep soils warm at the same rate as surface soils, contrary to Xiao et al. 's assertions. In response to Xiao et al. 's critique of our Q 10 analysis, we present the results with all data points included, which show Q 10 values of > 2 throughout the soil profile, indicating that all soil depths responded to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit

Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5 ?, a key question is what this would mean for China’s emission pathway, energy restructuring and decarbonization. By conducting a multi-model study, we find that the 1.5 ?-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by over 90% and 39%, respectively, compared to the No Policy case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon averagely accounting for 23% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multi-model comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, while what’s consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China’s accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.75-5.73% of its GDP by 2050, given the 1.5 ? warming limit.

1.5 degrees, China, Paris agreement, ENGAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Draft Metagenome Sequences of the Sphagnum (Peat Moss) Microbiome from Ambient and Warmed Environments across Europe

We present 49 metagenome assemblies of the microbiome associated with Sphagnum (peat moss) collected from ambient, artificially warmed, and geothermally warmed conditions across Europe. These data will enable further research regarding the impact of climate change on plant-microbe symbiosis, ecology, and ecosystem functioning of northern peatland ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dominant nitrogen metabolisms of a warm, seasonally anoxic freshwater ecosystem revealed using genome resolved metatranscriptomics

In aquatic ecosystems where primary productivity is limited by nitrogen (N), whether continuously, seasonally, or in concert with additional nutrient limitations, increased inorganic N availability can reshape ecosystem structure and function, potentially resulting in eutrophication and even harmful algal blooms. Whereas microbial metabolic processes such as mineralization and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium increase inorganic N availability, denitrification removes bioavailable N from the ecosystem. Therefore, understanding these key microbial mechanisms is critical to the sustainable management and environmental stewardship of inland freshwater resources. This study identifies and characterizes these crucial metabolisms in a warm, seasonally anoxic ecosystem. Results are contextualized by an ecological understanding of the study system derived from a multi-year continuous monitoring effort. This unique data set is the first of its kind in this largely understudied ecosystem (tropical lakes) and also provides insight into microbiome function and associated taxa in warm, anoxic freshwaters.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Role of Subtropical Irreversible PV Mixing in the Zonal Mean Circulation Response to Global Warming-like Thermal Forcing

The atmospheric circulation response to the global warming-like tropical upper tropospheric heating is revisited using a dry atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) in light of a new diagnostics based on the concept of finite-amplitude wave activity (FAWA) on equivalent latitude. For a given tropical heating profile, the linear Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) wave refraction analysis sometimes gives a very different and even opposite prediction of the eddy momentum flux response to that of the actual full model simulation, exposing the limitation of the traditional linear approach in understanding the full dynamics of the atmospheric response under global warming. The implementation of the FAWA diagnostics reveals that in response to the upper tropospheric heating, effective diffusivity, a measure of the mixing efficiency, increases and advances upward and poleward in the subtropics and the resultant enhancement and the poleward encroachment of eddy potential vorticity mixing leads to a poleward displaced potential vorticity (PV) gradient peak in the upper troposphere. The anomalous eddy PV flux, in balance with the PV dissipation, gives rise to a poleward shift in the eddy-driven jet and eddy-driven mean meridional circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that these irreversible dissipation processes in the upper troposphere are robust, regardless of the width of the tropical heating.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Changes in the MJO under Greenhouse Gas–Induced Warming in CMIP5 Models

This study investigates changes to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in response to greenhouse gas–induced warming during the twenty-first century. Changes in the MJO’s amplitude, phase speed, and zonal scale are examined in five models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that demonstrate superior MJO characteristics. Under warming, the CMIP5 models exhibit a robust increase in the spectral power of planetary-scale, intraseasonal, eastward-propagating (MJO) precipitation anomalies (~10.9% K −1 ). The amplification of MJO variability is accompanied by an increase of the spectral power of the corresponding westward-traveling waves at a similar rate. This suggests that enhanced MJO variability in a warmer climate is likely caused by enhanced background tropical precipitation variability, not by changes in the MJO’s stability. All models examined show an increase in the MJO’s phase speed (1.8% K –1 –4.5% K −1 ) and a decrease in the MJO’s zonal wavenumber (1.0% K –1 –3.8% K −1 ). Using a linear moisture mode framework, this study tests the theory-predicted phase speed changes against the simulated phase speed changes. It is found that the MJO’s acceleration in a warmer climate is a result of enhanced horizontal moisture advection by the steepening of the mean meridional moisture gradient and the decrease in zonal wavenumber, which is partially offset by the lengthening of the convective moisture adjustment time scale and the increase in gross dry stability. While the ability of the linear moisture mode framework to explain MJO phase speed changes is model dependent, the theory can accurately predict the phase speed changes in the model ensemble.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of surface temperature to oceanic forcing via q-Flux Green’s function experiments. Part III: asymmetric response to warming and cooling

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination towards cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

Liu, Fukai↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changes in Convective Available Potential Energy and Convective Inhibition under Global Warming

Atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) is expected to increase under greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but a recent regional study also suggests enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) over land although its cause is not well understood. In this study, a global climate model is first evaluated by comparing its CAPE and CIN with reanalysis data, and then their future changes and the underlying causes are examined. The climate model reasonably captures the present-day CAPE and CIN patterns seen in the reanalysis, and projects increased CAPE almost everywhere and stronger CIN over most land under global warming. Over land, the cases or times with medium to strong CAPE or CIN would increase while cases with weak CAPE or CIN would decrease, leading to an overall strengthening in their mean values. These projected changes are confirmed by convection-permitting 4-km model simulations over the United States. The CAPE increase results mainly from increased low-level specific humidity, which leads to more latent heating and buoyancy for a lifted parcel above the level of free convection (LFC) and also a higher level of neutral buoyancy. The enhanced CIN over most land results mainly from reduced low-level relative humidity (RH), which leads to a higher lifting condensation level and a higher LFC and thus more negative buoyancy. Over tropical oceans, the near-surface RH increases slightly, leading to slight weakening of CIN. Over the subtropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, the impact of reduced low-level atmospheric lapse rates overshadows the effect of increased specific humidity, leading to decreased CAPE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗