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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Describing the Mechanism of Instability Suppression Using a Central Pilot Flame With Coupled Experiments and Simulations

Pilot flames are commonly used to extend combustor operability limits and suppress combustion oscillations in low-emissions gas turbines. Combustion oscillations, a coupling between heat release rate oscillations and combustor acoustics, can arise at the operability limits of low-emissions combustors where the flame is more susceptible to perturbations. While the use of pilot flames is common in land-based gas turbine combustors, the mechanism by which they suppress instability is still unclear. In this study, we consider the impact of a central jet pilot on the stability of a swirl-stabilized flame in a variable-length, single-nozzle combustor. Previously, the pilot flame was found to suppress the instability for a range of equivalence ratios and combustor lengths. We hypothesize that combustion oscillation suppression by the pilot occurs because the pilot provides hot gases to the vortex breakdown region of the flow that recirculate and improve the static, and hence dynamic, stability of the main flame. This hypothesis is based on a series of experimental results that show that pilot efficacy is a strong function of pilot equivalence ratio but not pilot flow rate, which would indicate that the temperature of the pilot products as well as the combustion intensity of the pilot flame play more of a role in oscillation stabilization than the length of the pilot flame relative to the main flame. Further, the pilot-flame efficacy increases with pilot-flame equivalence ratio until it matches the main-flame equivalence ratio; at pilot equivalence ratios greater than the main equivalence ratio, the pilot-flame efficacy does not change significantly with pilot equivalence ratio. To understand these results, we use large-eddy simulation (LES) to provide a detailed analysis of the flow in the region of the pilot flame and the transport of radical species in the region between the main flame and pilot flame. Furthermore, the simulation, using a flamelet/progress variable-based chemistry tabulation approach and standard eddy viscosity/diffusivity turbulence closure models, provides detailed information that is inaccessible through experimental measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated and efficient local adaptive regression for principal component-based reduced-order modeling of turbulent reacting flows

Principal Component Analysis can be used to reduce the cost of Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations of turbulent reacting flows by reducing the dimensionality of the transported variables through projection of the thermochemical state onto a lower-dimensional manifold. However, because of the nonlinearity of the principal component source terms, nonlinear regression techniques must be utilized for the source terms in terms of the principal components. Unfortunately, widely available and utilized nonlinear regression techniques can have prohibitive computational requirements and/or accuracy that is highly dependent on user experience in ad hoc tuning of model architecture and hyperparameters. Here, in this work, a new nonlinear regression approach is proposed that is both computationally efficient and automated so does not require any user input. The approach is evaluated through a priori prediction of principal component source terms using data from a Direct Numerical Simulation of a turbulent nonpremixed n-heptane/air jet flame. In particular, the proposed framework consists of local regressions whose complexity is adapted according to the local nonlinearity of the data: local linear regression when accurate enough and local Artificial Neural Networks when nonlinear regression is required. The number of local clusters for local regression is determined automatically using the Davies-Bouldin index. In addition, Bayesian optimization is utilized for model training (i.e., to select the best architectures and hyperparameters of the nonlinear regressions in an unsupervised fashion), eliminating ad hoc hand-tuning and/or expensive grid searches. Overall, compared to a single, global neural network, the new local adaptive regression approach is shown to have comparable accuracy but 69% less training time due to the utilization of local linear regression and faster training of local neural networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large-eddy simulation study on cycle-to-cycle variation of knocking combustion in a spark-ignition engine

The cycle-to-cycle variation in the knock intensity is commonly encountered under abnormal combustion conditions. The severity of these abnormal combustion events can vary significantly, and the efficiency of engines at high loads is limited in practice by heavy knocking phenomena. Since, a thorough analysis of such recurrent but non-cyclic phenomena via experiments alone becomes highly cumbersome, in the present work, a multi-cycle large-eddy simulation study was performed to quantitatively predict cyclic variability in the combustion process and cyclic knock intensity variability in a direct injection spark-ignition engine. To account for the turbulence-chemistry interaction effects on flame propagation, the G-equation combustion model was used. Detailed chemistry was solved outside the flame front with a toluene primary reference fuel skeletal kinetic mechanism. For both the mild knock and heavy knock conditions, the numerical results were validated against experimental measurements. Based on the simulation results, a correlation analysis was performed considering combustion phasing, peak cylinder pressure and maximum amplitude of pressure oscillation. Furthermore, a detailed three-dimensional spatial analysis illustrated the evolution of auto-ignition kernel development and propagation of pressure waves during knocking combustion for three typical cycles with different knock intensities. In this process, it was found that an early occurrence of auto-ignition in the end gas was prone to high knock intensity. Although multiple auto-ignition kernels were observed in different cycles, the degree of coupling between chemical heat release and pressure waves varied, thereby leading to different maximum amplitude of pressure oscillation values.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sedimentary Geothermal Resources in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Texas

The objectives of this project were to (1) perform a literature review of sedimentary geothermal resources, (2) identify data sources and develop data-collection methodologies that characterize selected resources, (3) screen sedimentary basins and formations for sedimentary geothermal potential, and (4) evaluate the technical feasibility of one or more selected locations. Numerous publications have characterized geothermal resources within sedimentary basins. A literature search reviewed publications describing resources located in Colorado, Louisiana, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. The most attractive resources have high temperature gradients, low drilling costs, and reservoir permeabilities greater than 10 millidarcies (mD). Prospects in Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Utah exhibit attractive characteristics and were chosen for further analysis. Sedimentary resources in Nevada and Utah are most attractive, followed by tested resources in Texas and untested resources in Colorado. The identified resources in Wyoming and Louisiana had lower geothermal gradients and were not evaluated. Reservoir modeling and techno-economic analysis were performed at Marys River Basin–North in Nevada. Geothermal energy production at this location is expected to have a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranging between 10 and 20 cents/kWh. Additional work may result in lower LCOE estimates at this location and at other attractive prospects in these three regions. The Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system of eastern Nevada and western Utah includes a lower carbonate aquifer unit, which has the potential for hosting both conduction- and convection-dominated geothermal systems. Mapping has identified lateral thickness variability expressed as a roughly 120–150-km-wide central corridor, which hosts the thickest and most continuous formations and extends from near Las Vegas north to the Idaho border. Purchase and analysis of privately held legacy seismic data could potentially compensate for the lack of sufficient data documenting measured depth to the lower carbonate aquifer unit. Multiple orogenies, extension episodes, and intrusive events have deformed and displaced the target formations of the lower carbonate aquifer unit. This structural complexity and potential for dipping reservoirs emphasizes the need for detailed geological, geophysical, and reservoir modeling. Heat flow within three Colorado sedimentary basins reviewed as part of this study was calculated in targeted studies by the Colorado Geologic Survey and Colorado School of Mines. These calculations are based on bottom-hole temperature data sets with significant limitations and some variability but produce values consistently higher than the global continental average of 65 mW/m2 for all three basins. Heat flow in the Raton Basin is the highest; however, permeability measurements from specific sedimentary formations with high heat flow have not been obtained. Promising formations for sedimentary geothermal systems were found in all three regions studied—Nevada-Utah, Colorado, and Texas. The next steps for developing sedimentary geothermal resources vary due to differences in available data and resource uncertainties. Additional scopes of work are recommended for identified basins in these three regions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamics of McMillan mappings III. Symmetric map with mixed nonlinearity

This article extends the study of the dynamical properties of the symmetric McMillan map, emphasizing its utility in understanding and modeling complex nonlinear systems. Although the map features six parameters, we demonstrate that only two are irreducible: the linearized rotation number at the fixed point and a nonlinear parameter representing the ratio of terms in the biquadratic invariant. Through a detailed analysis, we classify regimes of stable motion, provide exact solutions to the mapping equations, and derive a canonical set of action-angle variables, offering analytical expressions for the rotation number and nonlinear tune shift. We further establish connections between general standard-form mappings and the symmetric McMillan map, using the area-preserving Hénon map and accelerator lattices with thin sextupole magnet as representative case studies. Our results show that, despite being a second-order approximation, the symmetric McMillan map provides a highly accurate depiction of dynamics across a wide range of system parameters, demonstrating its practical relevance in both theoretical and applied contexts.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gauges, loops, and polynomials for partition functions of graphical models

Graphical models represent multivariate and generally not normalized probability distributions. Computing the normalization factor, called the partition function, is the main inference challenge relevant to multiple statistical and optimization applications. The problem is #P-hard that is of an exponential complexity with respect to the number of variables. Here, aimed at approximating the partition function, we consider multi-graph models where binary variables and multivariable factors are associated with edges and nodes, respectively, of an undirected multi-graph. We suggest a new methodology for analysis and computations that combines the Gauge function technique from Chertkov and Chernyak with the technique developed in Anari and Oveis Gharan 2017 arXiv:1702.02937; Gurvits 2011 arXiv:1106.2844; Straszak and Vishnoi 2017 55th Annual Allerton Conf. on Communication, Control, and Computing, based on the recent progress in the field of real stable polynomials. We show that the Gauge function, representing a single-out term in a finite sum expression for the partition function which achieves extremum at the so-called belief-propagation gauge, has a natural polynomial representation in terms of gauges/variables associated with edges of the multi-graph. Moreover, Gauge function can be used to recover the partition function through a sequence of transformations allowing appealing algebraic and graphical interpretations. Algebraically, one step in the sequence consists of the application of a differential operator over gauges associated with an edge. Graphically, the sequence is interpreted as a repetitive elimination/contraction of edges resulting in multi-graph models on decreasing in size (number of edges) graphs with the same partition function as in the original multi-graph model. Even though the complexity of computing factors in the sequence of the derived multi-graph models and respective Gauge functions grow exponentially with the number of eliminated edges, polynomials associated with the new factors remain bi-stable if the original factors have this property. Moreover, we show that BP estimations in the sequence do not decrease, each low-bounding the partition function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiple giant eruptions and X-ray emission in the recoiling AGN/LBV candidate SDSS1133

We present a comprehensive analysis of 20 yr worth of multicolour photometric light curves, multiepoch optical spectra, and X-ray data of an off-nuclear variable object SDSS1133 in Mrk 177 at z = 0.0079. The UV-optical light curves reveal that SDSS1133 experienced four outbursts in 2001, 2014, 2019, and 2021. The persistent UV-optical luminosity in the non-outbursting state is ~1041 erg s -1 with small-scale flux variations, and peak luminosities during the outbursts reach ~10 42 erg s -1 . The optical spectra exhibit enduring broad hydrogen Balmer P-Cygni profiles with the absorption minimum at ~-2000 km s -1 , indicating the presence of fast-moving ejecta. Chandra detected weak X-ray emission at a 0.3-10-keV luminosity of L X = 4 × 10 38 erg s -1 after the 2019 outburst. These lines of evidence suggests that SDSS1133 is an extreme luminous blue variable (LBV) star experiencing multiple giant eruptions with interactions of the ejected shell with different shells and/or circumstellar medium (CSM), and disfavours the recoiling active galactic nuclei scenario suggested in the literature. We suggest that pulsational pair-instability may provide a viable explanation for the multiple energetic eruptions in SDSS1133. If the current activity of SDSS1133 is a precursor of a supernova explosion, we may be able to observe a few additional giant eruptions and then the terminal supernova explosion or collapse to a massive black hole in future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Structure of coagulation factor VIII bound to a patient-derived anti-C1 domain antibody inhibitor

The development of pathogenic antibody inhibitors against coagulation factor VIII (FVIII) occurs in ~30% of congenital hemophilia A patients receiving FVIII replacement therapy as well as in all cases of acquired hemophilia A. KM33 is an anti-C1 domain antibody inhibitor previously isolated from a severe hemophilia A patient. In addition to potently blocking FVIII binding to von Willebrand factor and phospholipid surfaces, KM33 disrupts FVIII binding to lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1), which drives FVIII hepatic clearance and antigen presentation in dendritic cells. Here, we report on the structure of FVIII bound to NB33, a recombinant derivative of KM33, by single-particle cryo-electron microscopy. Furthermore, structural analysis reveals the NB33 epitope localizes to FVIII residues R2090-S2094 and I2158-R2159 which constitute membrane-binding loops in the C1 domain. Further analysis reveals multiple FVIII lysine and arginine residues, previously shown to mediate binding to LRP1, dock onto an acidic cleft at the NB33 variable domain interface, thus blocking a putative LRP1 binding site. Together, these results demonstrate a novel mechanism of FVIII inhibition by a patient-derived antibody inhibitor and provide structural evidence toward engineering FVIII with reduced LRP1-mediated clearance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photometry as a Proxy for Stellar Activity in Radial Velocity Analyses

Stellar activity remains a limiting factor in measuring precise planet parameters from radial velocity spectroscopy, not least in the search for Earth-mass planets orbiting in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars. One approach to mitigate stellar activity is to use combined analyses of both radial velocity and time-series photometry. We present an analysis of simultaneous disk-integrated photometry and radial velocity data of the Sun in order to determine the useful limits of a combined analysis. We find that simple periodogram or autocorrelation analysis of solar photometry give the correct rotation period <50% of the time. We therefore use a Gaussian process to investigate the time variability of solar photometry and to directly compare simultaneous photometry with radial velocity data. We find that the hyperparameter posteriors are relatively stable over 70 yr of solar photometry and the amplitude tracks the solar cycle. We observe good agreement between the hyperparameter posteriors for the simultaneous photometry and radial velocity data. Our primary conclusion is a recommendation to include an additional prior in Gaussian process fits to constrain the evolutionary timescale to be greater than the recurrence timescale (i.e., the rotation period) to recover more physically plausible and useful results. Our results indicate that such simultaneous monitoring may be a useful tool in enhancing the precision of radial velocity surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An evaluation of global organic aerosol schemes using airborne observations

Chemical transport models have historically struggled to accurately simulate the magnitude and variability of observed organic aerosol (OA), with previous studies demonstrating that models significantly underestimate observed concentrations in the troposphere. In this study, we explore two different model OA schemes within the standard GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and evaluate the simulations against a suite of 15 globally distributed airborne campaigns from 2008 to 2017, primarily in the spring and summer seasons. These include the ATom, KORUS-AQ, GoAmazon,FRAPPE, SEAC4RS, SENEX, DC3, CalNex, OP3, EUCAARI, ARCTAS and ARCPAC campaigns and provide broad coverage over a diverse set of atmospheric composition regimes – anthropogenic, biogenic, pyrogenic and remote. The schemes include significant differences in their treatment of the primary and secondary components of OA – a “simple scheme” that models primary OA (POA) as non-volatile and takes a fixed-yield approach to secondary OA (SOA) formation and a “complex scheme” that simulates POA as semi-volatile and uses a more sophisticated volatility basis set approach for non-isoprene SOA, with an explicit aqueous uptake mechanism to model isoprene SOA. Despite these substantial differences, both the simple and complex schemes perform comparably across the aggregate dataset in their ability to capture the observed variability (with an R2 of 0.41 and 0.44, respectively). The simple scheme displays greater skill in minimizing the overall model bias (with a normalized mean bias of 0.04 compared to 0.30 for the complex scheme). Across both schemes, the model skill in reproducing observed OA is superior to previous model evaluations and approaches the fidelity of the sulfate simulation within the GEOS-Chem model. However,there are significant differences in model performance across different chemical source regimes, classified here into seven categories.Higher-resolution nested regional simulations indicate that model resolution is an important factor in capturing variability in highly localized campaigns, while also demonstrating the importance of well-constrained emissions inventories and local meteorology, particularly over Asia. Our analysis suggests that a semi-volatile treatment of POA is superior to anon-volatile treatment. It is also likely that the complex scheme parameterization overestimates biogenic SOA at the global scale. While this study identifies factors within the SOA schemes that likely contribute to OA model bias (such as a strong dependency of the bias in the complex scheme on relative humidity and sulfate concentrations), comparisons with the skill of the sulfate aerosol scheme in GEOS-Chem indicate the importance of other drivers of bias, such as emissions, transport and deposition, that are exogenous to the OA chemical scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building Alternative Indices of Socioeconomic Status for Population Modeling in Data-Sparse Contexts (Short Paper)

Population modeling requires clear definitions of socioeconomic status (SES) to ensure overall estimate accuracy and locate potentially underserved subpopulations. This presents a challenge as SES can be measured in myriad ways and for divergent purposes, and the data required to calculate these metrics may be lacking, particularly in low and middle income countries (LMICs). To support more refined SES measurement, we explore improvements upon the Demographic and Health Survey’s (DHS) Wealth Index (DHS-WI) using alternative characterizations of SES based on multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and hierarchical clustering. We produce the MCA-derived metrics first on a full suite of household economic, demographic, and dwelling variables, then on a reduced set of occupant-only SES characteristics. We explore the utility of these metrics relative to DHS-WI based on their ability to 1) differentiate DHS household types and 2) identify mixtures of SES levels within DHS samples and mapped at high spatial resolution. We find that our full suite MCA yields more clearly defined SES segments and that our reduced MCA delineates occupant SES most clearly, suggesting potential pathways to improve upon the DHS-WI in future population modeling efforts for LMICs.

Cunningham, Angela↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a dynamical model and energy analysis for wheel loader

The objective of this paper is to develop a fully integrated model for the wheel loader, including the subsystem dynamics of the engine, drivetrain, working circuit, steering circuit, and vehicle. It leads to a high-order strongly nonlinear system, and all state variables are coupled together to form a Multi-Input and Multi-Output (MIMO) system. A control architecture is proposed to decouple the MIMO system into several Single-Input and Single-Output (SISO) systems. Here, a tracking problem has been formulated to validate this fully integrated model with the field test data. The accuracy of the model is verified by the 2.3% difference between the measured and simulated fuel consumption. Meanwhile, an energy distribution analysis is conducted to reveal the energy consumption and energy loss of each portion of the wheel loader. Such a model can be used to plan the working pattern, guide the driving habits of human operators, or refine the underlying architecture, leading to the ultimate goal of reducing total fuel consumption and improving productivity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Causal relationships of vegetation productivity with root zone water availability and atmospheric dryness at the catchment scale

Abstract. This study explores the causal relationships between catchment water availability, vapor pressure deficit, and gross primary productivity (GPP) across 341 catchments in the contiguous US. Seasonal climatic, hydrological, and vegetation characteristics were represented using the Horton index, ecological aridity index, evaporative fraction index, and carbon uptake efficiency. Statistical methods, including circularity statistics, correlation analysis, and causality tests, were employed to determine the complex interactions between catchment wetness, atmospheric dryness, and vegetation carbon uptake. The results revealed a maximum lag of 2 months in the intra-annual variability of catchment water supply–productivity and atmospheric water demand–productivity relationships, with hysteresis patterns varying with the catchment's hydrological characteristics. In catchments not permanently under water-limited or energy-limited conditions, vegetation experiences hydrological stress during the peak growing period, coinciding with the highest gross primary productivity and carbon uptake efficiency being out of phase with the Horton index and in phase with the evaporative fraction index. Causality analysis highlights strong temporal continuity in GPP seasonal characteristics, with a cause–effect relationship between catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity spanning a maximum of 2 months. These findings underscore the need for a comprehensive functional framework that integrates catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity to enhance our understanding and predictive capabilities with regard to ecosystem responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗