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At least 973 records · Page 54
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Tech-X contributions to the Center for Tokamak Transients (CTTS) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) project (Final Report)

The Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) consists of computational plasma physicists, computer scientists, and applied mathematicians who are together developing and applying simulation software to improve our understanding of and ability to predict and control transient events in tokamak discharges, particularly those that lead to violent disruptions. We have major simulation activities concerning disruptions that are caused by violating ideal MHD stability criteria, vertical displacement events, resistive wall modes, and tearing modes. We are performing comprehensive modeling of disruption mitigation techniques, particularly by shattered pellet injection (SPI). The Center is built around two mature extended MHD codes: NIMROD and M3D-C1. These codes are being extended in a number of ways as required by the demands of disruption modeling, and are being optimized to work well for larger problem size and modern computer architectures as required to model tokamak plasmas with realistic parameters over the required timescales. The codes will be coupled to the FronTier code for state-of-the-art modeling of SPI. Validation with experimental data on DIII-D, NSTX, and JET is being facilitated by rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). The high-level objectives of the center are to: (1) Develop better understanding and improved predictive capability of when crossing a linear stability boundary will likely lead to a disruption, (2) Provide a tool for calculating vessel forces, both axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric, for worst case VDE and other disruptions in tokamaks, (3) Develop increased understanding and improved predictive capability for locked mode disruptions and how best to avoid them, (4) Develop, verify, and validate 3D models for disruption mitigation by shattered pellets that can be used to design and optimize a system for future tokamaks, and (5) Increase the efficiency and scalability of the M3D-C1 and NIMROD codes so that they can model disruptions in ITER scale devices using the most powerful DOE HPC hardware, and (6) Demonstrate code-coupling via FronTier coupling with NIMROD and M3D-C1 and by interfacing these codes within a WDM framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

FAST-1.0: A Computer Code for Thermal-Mechanical Nuclear Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients: Developed under NQA-1-2017

Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) is the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)’s computer code that calculates the steady-state and transient response of nuclear reactor fuel rods during long-term in-reactor burnup, anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBAs), and dry storage conditions. The code calculates the temperature, pressure, and deformation of a fuel rod as functions of time-dependent fuel rod power and coolant boundary conditions. The phenomena modeled by the code include: heat conduction through the fuel and other materials, heat transfer from the cladding-to-coolant, cladding elastic and plastic deformation, including creep, fuel-cladding mechanical interaction, fission gas release from the fuel, rod internal pressure and void volume, and cladding oxidation. The code contains necessary material and coolant properties, as well as clad-to-coolant heattransfer correlations, for normal operation through postulated accidents for today’s US-based light water reactor (LWR) fuel designs. FAST-1.0 also contains preliminary materials and models for new LWR fuel concepts, such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF), and non-LWR fuel concepts such as metallic fuels for sodium fast reactors (SFRs). FAST has been developed for use on Windows and Linux operating systems. This document describes FAST-1.0, which is the first official version of this code. This document is one of a series of documents on FAST; the other documents detail the material properties used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

FAST-1.1: A Computer Code for Thermal-Mechanical Nuclear Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (Developed under NQA-1-2017)

Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)’s computer code that calculates the steady-state and transient response of nuclear reactor fuel rods during long-term in-reactor burnup, anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBAs), and dry storage conditions. The code calculates the temperature, pressure, and deformation of a fuel rod as functions of time-dependent fuel rod power and coolant boundary conditions. The phenomena modeled by the code include: * heat conduction through the fuel and other materials * heat transfer from the cladding-to-coolant * cladding elastic and plastic deformation, including creep * fuel-cladding mechanical interaction * fission gas release from the fuel * rod internal pressure and void volume * cladding oxidation The code contains necessary material and coolant properties, as well as clad-to-coolant heat transfer correlations, for normal operation through postulated accidents and AOOs for today’s U.S.-based light water reactor (LWR) fuel designs. FAST-1.1 also contains preliminary materials and models for new LWR fuel concepts, such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF), and non-LWR fuel concepts such as metallic fuels for sodium fast reactors (SFRs). FAST has been developed for use on Windows and Linux operating systems. This document describes FAST-1.1 and is one of a series of documents on the code; the other documents detail the material properties used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations

The major goals for the Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) were to develop detailed numerical simulations of disruptive transients in tokamak experiments and to use them in theoretical studies of the thermal-quench (TQ) and current-quench (CQ) phases of disruption. The University of Wisconsin-Madison component of CTTS contributed relevant development for the NIMROD code (https://nimrodteam.org) and applied it to disruptions that involve global vertical displacement. Code-development contributions include boundary conditions that represent sheath effects which occur when tokamak plasma is in contact with the surrounding vessel wall during vertical displacement events (VDEs). We also implemented a reduced model of energetic runaway electrons (REs) to simulate the effect of these energetic electrons on the CQ phase of tokamak disruptions. Our computations of VDEs include 2D and 3D verification through benchmarks with two other widely used macroscale plasma simulation codes, M3D-C1 and JOREK. Over nonlinear evolution to the final termination of plasma current, the 2D simulation results on magnetic axis location, toroidal current, and halo current track each other well. With the 3D benchmark computation, all three codes found the same qualitative behavior of the asymmetric instabilities having increasing growth rate after contact with the wall, followed by nonlinear excitation of other toroidal harmonics. Our NIMROD computations for an idealized configuration show agreement with an analytical assessment by V. D. Pustovitov [Nucl. Fusion 55, 113032 (2015)] that the plasma and non-ideal wall remain in force-balance such that net forces only result from magnetic stresses over the outer surface of the wall. Our study of the influence of boundary conditions on VDEs shows that extended-MHD simulations of VDEs are sensitive to electron energy transport to the wall and that boundary conditions on flow are only significant to the extent that they influence the electron energy transport. Resistive-MHD NIMROD simulations of the tokamak discharges in the Madison Symmetric Torus show that magnetic perturbations of poloidal wavenumber m=3 lead to chaotic magnetic topology over the edge region, which helps deconfine energetic electrons. A second area of RE study shows that the coupled resistive MHD/reduced RE model reproduces the resistive-hose particle-beam instability. With respect to educational opportunities, this effort involved and supported four graduate students at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and one postdoctoral associate. The results of this study have been disseminated through journal publications, conference presentations, technical reports, and PhD dissertations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transient Testing of Nuclear Fuels Performed in the Original Operation of TREAT, Third Edition

TREAT core was upgraded at the end of the 1980s. The tests performed since about 1970 are summarized in considerable detail. Earlier tests are noted by their designated series and by some parameters that help to identify and distinguish each series from the others. The detailed summary descriptions are intended to help inform future researchers regarding the large, historical, empirical data base generated from that 35-year span during which hundreds of TREAT experiments were performed to investigate and demonstrate the transient behavior of a wide variety of nuclear fuels during severe off-normal and accident conditions -- using direct nuclear heating of the test samples. That empirical basis is foundational and valuable for guiding future qualification and safety evaluation of improved fuel designs and for future transient test planning and performance in TREAT. The second edition of this report added descriptions of the following test series: D, E, EOS, F, H, J, R, RX, and S. This third edition includes descriptions of an additional four test series: the HUT, HOP (& HUC), ORNL-TR, and PNL.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

FAST-1.2: A Computer Code for Thermal-Mechanical Nuclear Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients

Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)’s computer code that calculates the steady-state and transient response of nuclear reactor fuel rods during long-term in-reactor burnup, anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBAs), and dry storage conditions. The code calculates the temperature, pressure, and deformation of a fuel rod as functions of time-dependent fuel rod power and coolant boundary conditions. The phenomena modeled by the code include: • heat conduction through the fuel and other materials • heat transfer from the cladding-to-coolant • cladding elastic and plastic deformation, including creep • fuel-cladding mechanical interaction • fission gas release from the fuel • rod internal pressure and void volume • cladding oxidation The code contains necessary material and coolant properties, as well as clad-to-coolant heat-transfer correlations, for normal operation through postulated accidents and AOOs for today’s U.S.-based light water reactor (LWR) fuel designs. FAST-1.2 also contains preliminary materials and models for new LWR fuel concepts, such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF), and non-LWR fuel concepts such as metallic fuels for sodium fast reactors (SFRs). FAST has been developed for use on Windows and Linux operating systems. This document describes FAST-1.2 and is one of a series of documents on the code; the other documents detail the material properties used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Generic and Multifunctional Electromagnetic Transient Model for Grid-Following Inverters

This article presents a generic and multi-functional electromagnetic transient (EMT) dynamic model of grid following (GFL) inverter-based resource (IBR) using the PSCAD software platform. The features of the developed model includes the flexibility in selecting various types and combinations of DC sources covering PV modules, battery modules, ideal DC source module, as well as flexibility in selecting either switched or averaged model of inverter. This model also covers exhaustive lists of controller logic covering open-loop/closed-loop PQ dispatch control, DC voltage and AC terminal voltage control along with the conventional current control designed in dq-domain, ate- domain and positive-negative sequence domain. Moreover, this model is equipped with the flexibility in selecting various types of current limiting schemes that includes saturation-based as well as latching-based current limiter, anti-windup protection. Moreover, the EMT model is agnostic to the MVA rating and is suitable for interfacing transmission systems by being complaint with the IEEE Std. 2800. The generality in the power circuits and the multi-functional options in operation and control of the developed EMT model makes it suitable for both academia and industry to study various power system aspects not limited to but such as fault behavior of GFL IBR and impacts on protection system, transient stability of a system interfaced with large number of GFL IBRs etc.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing Attosecond Bound Electron Dynamics Driven by Strong-Field Light Transients

The project aimed to drive strong-field excitation of bound electronic coherences in gas-phase atoms and molecules using a novel source of near-single-cycle optical field transients, based on industrial-grade Yb:solid-state laser technology. Key objectives included generating near-single cycle field transients and isolated attosecond pulses, reconstructing time-dependent wave packets in atoms and molecules, probing their decoherence using attosecond interferometry, and controlling the dynamic evolution of systems on attosecond to few-femtosecond timescales. A secondary goal of the project was to develop field-resolved measurement platforms as a novel approach for studying electron dynamics in atomic and molecular systems.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

FAST-1.2.2: A Computer Code for Thermal-Mechanical Nuclear Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients

Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)’s computer code that calculates the steady-state and transient response of nuclear reactor fuel rods during long-term in-reactor burnup, anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBAs), and dry storage conditions. The code calculates the temperature, pressure, and deformation of a fuel rod as functions of time-dependent fuel rod power and coolant boundary conditions. The phenomena modeled by the code include heat conduction through the fuel and other materials, heat transfer from the cladding-to-coolant, cladding elastic and plastic deformation (including creep), fuel-cladding mechanical interaction, fission gas release from the fuel, rod internal pressure, void volume, and cladding oxidation. The code contains necessary material and coolant properties, as well as clad-to-coolant heat transfer correlations, for normal operation through postulated accidents and AOOs for today’s U.S.-based light water reactor (LWR) fuel designs. FAST-1.2.2 also contains preliminary materials and models for new LWR fuel concepts, such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF), and non-LWR fuel concepts such as metallic fuels for sodium fast reactors (SFRs). FAST has been developed for use on Windows and Linux operating systems. This document describes FAST-1.2.2 and is one of a series of documents on the code; the other documents detail the material properties used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Responses of Drying-rewetting (Transient Soil Moisture) and Steady State Soil Moisture Incubation on Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics in Three US Soils, 2017

This data set contains measurements of soil characteristics (aggregate size distribution and mean size, total aggregate associated carbon, extractable organic C, and microbial biomass C), microbial respiration, and soil metabolite concentrations from a transient and steady soil moisture incubation experiment using soils of different textures (sandy, loamy, and clayey). The study investigated mechanisms driving the Birch effect (increased carbon mineralization pulses with wetting following a drying period) in differing soil textures. Three different soils of distinctly different textures were collected from 0-15cm depth in Georgia (sandy, 2017-05-01), Missouri (loamy, 2017-06-14), and Texas (clayey, December 2017). Soils were incubated for 140 days with destructive harvests done on days 1, 29, 33, 56, 112, 116, and 140 in transient soil moisture incubation and on days 1, 33, 116, and 140 in steady state soil moisture incubation. This dataset contains six data files in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: six data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

1-Methyladenosine concentration↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient histone deacetylase inhibition reveals cell type invariant and specific effects of chromatin decondensation on irradiation response

Radiation therapy plays a prominent role in breast cancer treatment, but the high doses of radiation damage both healthy and cancerous cells. Therefore, additional research is needed into combination therapies that could preferentially radiosensitize cancer cells compared to surrounding healthy tissue without causing deleterious side effects. Histone deacetylase inhibitor drugs (HDACis) have been tested as radiosensitizers in both basic research and clinical trials, but the long exposure time typically used in these treatments and the lack of matched healthy cell controls often leave aspects of their mechanism of action unclear. Here, we show that transient (2 h) trichostatin A (TSA) treatment of cancerous and non-tumorigenic breast epithelial cell lines increases immediate DNA damage and decreases long term cell viability in both cell types at high radiation doses. Transient TSA treatment also causes an increase in DNA damage signals after 5 Gy X-rays in other cancer and healthy cell types: A375 melanoma cells and BJ5-ta fibroblasts. This suggests that chromatin decompaction acts to increase cellular vulnerability to initial DNA damage from high doses of radiation in a cell type independent manner that does not rely on changes to DNA repair pathways caused by longer TSA treatment. However, responses to lower doses of radiation and long term survival are more cell type specific: only MCF7 cells experience an effect of TSA on DNA damage after 1 Gy X-ray radiation while MCF10a cells experience somewhat more evident cell viability effects of combined TSA and radiation treatment long term.

Li, Heng [Biochemistry & Cellular and Molecular Bi↗
DOE OSTI2024

A framework of computer vision-enhanced microfluidic approach for automated assessment of the transient sickling kinetics in sickle red blood cells

The occurrence of vaso-occlusive crisis greatly depends on the competition between the sickling delay time and the transit time of individual sickle cells, i.e., red blood cells from sickle cell disease (SCD) patients, while they are traversing the circulatory system. Many drugs for treating SCD work by inhibiting the polymerization of sickle hemoglobin (HbS), effectively delaying the sickling process in sickle cells (SS RBCs). Most previous studies on screening anti-sickling drugs, such as voxelotor, rely on in vitro testing of sickling characteristics, often conducted under prolonged deoxygenation for up to 1 hour. However, since the microcirculation of RBCs typically takes less than 1 minute, the results of these studies may be less accurate and less relevant for in vitro-in vivo correlation. In our current study, we introduce a computer vision-enhanced microfluidic framework designed to automatically capture the transient sickling kinetics of SS RBCs within a 1-min timeframe. Our study has successfully detected differences in the transient sickling kinetics between vehicle control and voxelotor-treated SS RBCs. This approach has the potential for broader applications in screening anti-sickling therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transient Phase-Driven Cyclic Deformation in Additively Manufactured 15-5 PH Steel

The present work extends the examination of selective laser melting (SLM)-fabricated 15-5 PH steel with the 8%-transient-austenite-phase towards fully-reversed strain-controlled low-cycle fatigue (LCF) test. The cyclic-deformation response and microstructural evolution were investigated via in-situ neutron-diffraction measurements. The transient-austenite-phase rapidly transformed into the martensite phase in the initial cyclic-hardening stage, followed by an almost complete martensitic transformation in the cyclic-softening and steady stage. The compressive stress was much greater than the tensile stress at the same strain amplitude. The enhanced martensitic transformation associated with lower dislocation densities under compression predominantly governed such a striking tension-compression asymmetry in the SLM-built 15-5 PH.

15-5 PH stainless steel↗
DOE OSTI2017

X-Rays from the Location of the Double-humped Transient ASASSN-15lh

We present the detection of persistent soft X-ray radiation with L{sub x}∼10{sup 41}–10{sup 42} erg s{sup –1} at the location of the extremely luminous, double-humped transient ASASSN-15lh as revealed by Chandra and Swift. We interpret this finding in the context of observations from our multiwavelength campaign, which revealed the presence of weak narrow nebular emission features from the host-galaxy nucleus and clear differences with respect to superluminous supernova optical spectra. Significant UV flux variability on short timescales detected at the time of the rebrightening disfavors the shock interaction scenario as the source of energy powering the long-lived UV emission, while deep radio limits exclude the presence of relativistic jets propagating into a low-density environment. We propose a model where the extreme luminosity and double-peaked temporal structure of ASASSN-15lh is powered by a central source of ionizing radiation that produces a sudden change in the ejecta opacity at later times. As a result, UV radiation can more easily escape, producing the second bump in the light curve. We discuss different interpretations for the intrinsic nature of the ionizing source. We conclude that, if the X-ray source is physically associated with the optical–UV transient, then ASASSN-15lh most likely represents the tidal disruption of a main-sequence star by the most massive spinning black hole detected to date. In this case, ASASSN-15lh and similar events discovered in the future would constitute the most direct probes of very massive, dormant, spinning, supermassive black holes in galaxies. Future monitoring of the X-rays may allow us to distinguish between the supernova hypothesis and the hypothesis of a tidal disruption event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The X-Ray Binary Population of the Nearby Dwarf Starburst Galaxy IC 10: Variable and Transient X-Ray Sources

We have monitored the Cassiopeia dwarf galaxy (IC 10) in a series of 10 Chandra ACIS-S observations to capture its variable and transient X-ray source population, which is expected to be dominated by High Mass X-ray Binaries (HMXBs). We present a sample of 21 X-ray sources that are variable between observations at the 3 σ level, from a catalog of 110 unique point sources. We find four transients (flux variability ratio greater than 10) and a further eight objects with ratios >5. The observations span the years 2003–2010 and reach a limiting luminosity of >10{sup 35} erg s{sup −1}, providing sensitivity to X-ray binaries in IC 10 as well as flare stars in the foreground Milky Way. The nature of the variable sources is investigated from light curves, X-ray spectra, energy quantiles, and optical counterparts. The purpose of this study is to discover the composition of the X-ray binary population in a young starburst environment. IC 10 provides a sharp contrast in stellar population age (<10 My) when compared to the Magellanic Clouds (40–200 My) where most of the known HMXBs reside. We find 10 strong HMXB candidates, 2 probable background Active Galactic Nuclei, 4 foreground flare-stars or active binaries, and 5 not yet classifiable sources. Complete classification of the sample requires optical spectroscopy for radial velocity analysis and deeper X-ray observations to obtain higher S/N spectra and search for pulsations. A catalog and supporting data set are provided.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Chandra Dust-scattering Halo of Galactic Center Transient Swift J174540.7–290015

We report the detection of a dust-scattering halo around a recently discovered X-ray transient, Swift J174540.7–290015, which in early 2016 February underwent one of the brightest outbursts ( F {sub X} ≈ 5 × 10{sup −10} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}) observed from a compact object in the Galactic Center field. We analyze four Chandra images that were taken as follow-up observations to Swift discoveries of new Galactic Center transients. After adjusting our spectral extraction for the effects of detector pile-up, we construct a point-spread function for each observation and compare it to the GC field before the outburst. We find residual surface brightness around Swift J174540.7–290015, which has a shape and temporal evolution consistent with the behavior expected from X-rays scattered by foreground dust. We examine the spectral properties of the source, which shows evidence that the object transitioned from a soft to hard spectral state as it faded below L {sub X} ∼ 10{sup 36} erg s{sup −1}. This behavior is consistent with the hypothesis that the object is a low-mass X-ray binary in the Galactic Center.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

How Do Stars Gain Their Mass? A JCMT/SCUBA-2 Transient Survey of Protostars in Nearby Star-forming Regions

Most protostars have luminosities that are fainter than expected from steady accretion over the protostellar lifetime. The solution to this problem may lie in episodic mass accretion—prolonged periods of very low accretion punctuated by short bursts of rapid accretion. However, the timescale and amplitude for variability at the protostellar phase is almost entirely unconstrained. In A James Clerk Maxwell Telescope/SCUBA-2 Transient Survey of Protostars in Nearby Star-forming Regions, we are monitoring monthly with SCUBA-2 the submillimeter emission in eight fields within nearby (<500 pc) star-forming regions to measure the accretion variability of protostars. The total survey area of ∼1.6 deg{sup 2} includes ∼105 peaks with peaks brighter than 0.5 Jy/beam (43 associated with embedded protostars or disks) and 237 peaks of 0.125–0.5 Jy/beam (50 with embedded protostars or disks). Each field has enough bright peaks for flux calibration relative to other peaks in the same field, which improves upon the nominal flux calibration uncertainties of submillimeter observations to reach a precision of ∼2%–3% rms, and also provides quantified confidence in any measured variability. The timescales and amplitudes of any submillimeter variation will then be converted into variations in accretion rate and subsequently used to infer the physical causes of the variability. This survey is the first dedicated survey for submillimeter variability and complements other transient surveys at optical and near-IR wavelengths, which are not sensitive to accretion variability of deeply embedded protostars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints Based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Merger Triggers during O3

We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run (O3). We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization area of 4480 deg 2 , a median distance of 267 Mpc, and false-alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 10 -25 yr -1 . The ZTF coverage in the g and r bands had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8 mag, and median time lag between merger and the start of observations of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UltraViolet/Optical/InfraRed (UVOIR) photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and three radio images using 17 different telescopes. We find no promising kilonovae (radioactivity-powered counterparts), and we show how to convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Initially, we assume that all GW triggers are bona fide astrophysical events regardless of false-alarm rate and that kilonovae accompanying BNS and NSBH mergers are drawn from a common population; later, we relax these assumptions. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as the discovery magnitude of GW170817 (-16.1 mag), we calculate that our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than-16.6 mag (the extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at a rate of 1 mag day -1 (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations based on the online classifications, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, no more than <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag assuming flat evolution (fading by 1 mag day -1 ) at the 90% confidence level. If we further take into account the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that no more than <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have M ej < 0.03 M ⊙ , X lan > 10 -4 , or φ > 30° to be consistent with our limits. We look forward to searches in the fourth GW observing run; even 17 neutron star mergers with only 50% coverage to a depth of-16 mag would constrain the maximum fraction of bright kilonovae to <25%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗