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At least 973 records · Page 54

Power spectral density estimation by spline smoothing in the frequency domain.

An approach, based on a global averaging procedure, is presented for estimating the power spectrum of a second order stationary zero-mean ergodic stochastic process from a finite length record. This estimate is derived by smoothing, with a cubic smoothing spline, the naive estimate of the spectrum obtained by applying Fast Fourier Transform techniques to the raw data. By means of digital computer simulated results, a comparison is made between the features of the present approach and those of more classical techniques of spectral estimation.-

De Figueiredo, R. J. P.↗

Advanced reliability modeling of fault-tolerant computer-based systems

Two methodologies for the reliability assessment of fault tolerant digital computer based systems are discussed. The computer-aided reliability estimation 3 (CARE 3) and gate logic software simulation (GLOSS) are assessment technologies that were developed to mitigate a serious weakness in the design and evaluation process of ultrareliable digital systems. The weak link is based on the unavailability of a sufficiently powerful modeling technique for comparing the stochastic attributes of one system against others. Some of the more interesting attributes are reliability, system survival, safety, and mission success.

Bavuso, S. J.↗

Drop Breakup in Fixed Bed Flows as Model Stochastic Flow Fields

We examine drop breakup in a class of stochastic flow fields as a model for the flow through fixed fiber beds and to elucidate the general mechanisms whereby drops breakup in disordered, Lagrangian unsteady flows. Our study consists of two parallel streams of investigation. First, large scale numerical simulations of drop breakup in a class of anisotropic Gaussian fields will be presented. These fields are generated spectrally and have been shown in a previous publication to be exact representations of the flow in a dilute disordered bed of fibers if close interactions between the fibers and the drops are dynamically unimportant. In these simulations the drop shape is represented by second and third order small deformation theories which have been shown to be excellent for the prediction of drop breakup in steady strong flows. We show via these simulations that the mechanisms of drop breakup in these flows are quite different than in steady flows. The predominant mechanism of breakup appears to be very short lived twist breakups. Moreover, the occurrence of breakup events is poorly predicted by either the strength of the local flow in which the drop finds itself at breakup, or the degree of deformation that the drop achieves prior to breakup. It is suggested that a correlation function of both is necessary to be predictive of breakup events. In the second part of our research experiments are presented where the drop deformation and breakup in PDMS/polyisobutylene emulsions is considered. We consider very dilute emulsions such that coalescence is unimportant. The flows considered are simple shear and the flow through fixed fiber beds. Turbidity, small angle light scattering, dichroism and microscopy are used to interrogate the drop deformation process in both flows. It is demonstrated that breakup at very low capillary numbers occurs in both flows but larger drop deformation occurs in the fixed bed flow. Moreover, it is witnessed that breakup in the bed occurs continuously during flow and apparently with uniform probability through the bed length. The drop deformations witnessed in our experiments are larger than those predicted by the numerical simulations, and future plans to investigate these differences are discussed.

Shaqfeh, Eric S. G.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-32867-DND

During the summer of 2019, a Fokker F28 MK1000 aircraft was crash tested at the Landing and Impact Research Facility (LandIR) at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The test, which was conducted in cooperation with the FAA Technical Center and the FAA Civil Aeromedical Institute (CAMI), had multiple objectives. The first objective was to obtain data for aircraft undergoing a combined vertical plus horizontal impact condition, and then compare results to aircraft sections under vertical loading only. The second was to evaluate Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs, a.k.a. crash test dummies) of various sizes and positions for the determination of occupant injury. The third was to evaluate new and novel experimental ATDs including a larger Hybrid III, the Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR), and the Warrior Injury Assessment Manikin (WIAMan). Finally, the generated data was used to calibrate and validate computer simulation efforts. On-board data acquisition systems (DAS) captured loading on the airframe and the 24 on-board occupants while multiple high-speed cameras captured the motion. The port side of the airframe was painted with a stochastic monochromatic speckle pattern to allow for the collection of high-speed airframe deformation digital image correlation data. Airframe and occupant responses from each of the tests will be presented, and airframe and restraint performance will be discussed.

Justin Littell↗

Data-Driven Simulation-Based Planning for Electric Airport Shuttle Systems: A Real-World Case Study

Many airports are adopting battery electric buses in their shuttle fleets due to concerns over air quality and regulations. This study proposes a simulation-based optimization modeling framework to help airport shuttle operators effectively deploy electric buses. We evaluated a planned airport electric shuttle system with an event-driven simulator. Empirical data collected from existing systems were used to drive the simulations. We then proposed a simulation-based optimization model to determine the battery capacity, charging power, and number of chargers so that predefined objective(s) (e.g., minimizing total capital cost, minimizing emissions) are optimized. Compared to existing studies, the primary contribution of the proposed method is that it can model the real-world stochastic nature of operations in an electric bus system with much higher fidelity. To demonstrate the proposed modeling framework, we study a real-world shuttle system at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, and present extensive numerical studies. When considering partial fleet electrification, the model can provide a set of Pareto optimal solutions. When considering full fleet electrification, the optimal solution requires a 50-kWh battery capacity and four 210-kW chargers, resulting in a total capital cost of $26,744,000. The results demonstrate that the proposed modeling framework can effectively optimize the planning of electric airport shuttle systems with partial or full fleet electrification.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

A variance deconvolution estimator for efficient uncertainty quantification in Monte Carlo radiation transport applications

Monte Carlo simulations are at the heart of many high-fidelity simulations and analyses for radiation transport systems. As is the case with any complex computational model, it is important to propagate sources of input uncertainty and characterize how they affect model output. Unfortunately, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is made difficult by the stochastic variability that Monte Carlo transport solvers introduce. The standard method to avoid corrupting the UQ statistics with the transport solver noise is to increase the number of particle histories, resulting in very high computational costs. In this contribution, we propose and analyze a sampling estimator based on the law of total variance to compute UQ variance even in the presence of residual noise from Monte Carlo transport calculations. Here, we rigorously derive the statistical properties of the new variance estimator, compare its performance to that of the standard method, and demonstrate its use on neutral particle transport model problems involving both attenuation and scattering physics. We illustrate, both analytically and numerically, the estimator’s statistical performance as a function of available computational budget and the distribution of that budget between UQ samples and particle histories. We show analytically and corroborate numerically that the new estimator is unbiased, unlike the standard approach, and is more accurate and precise than the standard estimator for the same computational budget.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

pypolymix

SAND2026-16700O Pypolymix builds stochastic surrogate models using a lightweight Python library. Researchers working with large-scale scientific models can use it to enhance optimization and uncertainty quantification studies. Pypolymix enables the efficient construction of surrogate models and improves analysis and performance of complex simulations. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗

On-line methods for rotorcraft aeroelastic mode identification

The requirements for the on-line identification of rotorcraft aeroelastic blade modes from random response test data are presented. A recursive maximum likelihood (RML) technique is used in conjunction with a bandpass filter to identify isolated blade mode damping and frequency. The RML technique is demonstrated to have excellent convergence characteristics in random measurement noise and random process noise excitation. The RML identification technique uses an ARMA representation for the aeroelastic stochastic system and requires virtually no user interaction while providing accurate confidence bands on the parameter estimates. Comparisons are made with an off-line Newton type maximum likelihood algorithm which uses a state variable model representation. Results are presented from simulation random response data which quantify the identifed parameter convergence behavior for various levels of random excitation which is typical of wind tunnel turbulence levels. The RML technique is applied to hingless rotor test data from the NASA Langley Research Center Helicopter Hover Facility.

Molusis, J. A.↗

Technical notes and correspondence: Stochastic robustness of linear time-invariant control systems

A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of a linear time-invariant system is described. Monte Carlo evaluations of the system's eigenvalues allows the probability of instability and the related stochastic root locus to be estimated. This analysis approach treats not only Gaussian parameter uncertainties but non-Gaussian cases, including uncertain-but-bounded variation. Confidence intervals for the scalar probability of instability address computational issues inherent in Monte Carlo simulation. Trivial extensions of the procedure admit consideration of alternate discriminants; thus, the probabilities that stipulated degrees of instability will be exceeded or that closed-loop roots will leave desirable regions can also be estimated. Results are particularly amenable to graphical presentation.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

Improved Modeling of Finite-Rate Turbulent Combustion Processes in Research Combustors

The objective of this thesis is to further develop and test a stochastic model of turbulent combustion in recirculating flows. There is a requirement to increase the accuracy of multi-dimensional combustion predictions. As turbulence affects reaction rates, this interaction must be more accurately evaluated. In this work a more physically correct way of handling the interaction of turbulence on combustion is further developed and tested. As turbulence involves randomness, stochastic modeling is used. Averaged values such as temperature and species concentration are found by integrating the probability density function (pdf) over the range of the scalar. The model in this work does not assume the pdf type, but solves for the evolution of the pdf using the Monte Carlo solution technique. The model is further developed by including a more robust reaction solver, by using accurate thermodynamics and by more accurate transport elements. The stochastic method is used with Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equations. The SIMPLE method is used to solve for velocity, pressure, turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation. The pdf solver solves for temperature and species concentration. Thus, the method is partially familiar to combustor engineers. The method is compared to benchmark experimental data and baseline calculations. The baseline method was tested on isothermal flows, evaporating sprays and combusting sprays. Pdf and baseline predictions were performed for three diffusion flames and one premixed flame. The pdf method predicted lower combustion rates than the baseline method in agreement with the data, except for the premixed flame. The baseline and stochastic predictions bounded the experimental data for the premixed flame. The use of a continuous mixing model or relax to mean mixing model had little effect on the prediction of average temperature. Two grids were used in a hydrogen diffusion flame simulation. Grid density did not effect the predictions except for peak temperature and tangential velocity. The hybrid pdf method did take longer and required more memory, but has a theoretical basis to extend to many reaction steps which cannot be said of current turbulent combustion models.

VanOverbeke, Thomas J.↗

Non-Genomic Origins of Proteins and Metabolism

It is proposed that evolution of inanimate matter to cells endowed with a nucleic acid- based coding of genetic information was preceded by an evolutionary phase, in which peptides not coded by nucleic acids were able to self-organize into networks capable of evolution towards increasing metabolic complexity. Recent findings that truly different, simple peptides (Keefe and Szostak, 2001) can perform the same function (such as ATP binding) provide experimental support for this mechanism of early protobiological evolution. The central concept underlying this mechanism is that the reproduction of cellular functions alone was sufficient for self-maintenance of protocells, and that self- replication of macromolecules was not required at this stage of evolution. The precise transfer of information between successive generations of the earliest protocells was unnecessary and, possibly, undesirable. The key requirement in the initial stage of protocellular evolution was an ability to rapidly explore a large number of protein sequences in order to discover a set of molecules capable of supporting self- maintenance and growth of protocells. Undoubtedly, the essential protocellular functions were carried out by molecules not nearly as efficient or as specific as contemporary proteins. Many, potentially unrelated sequences could have performed each of these functions at an evolutionarily acceptable level. As evolution progressed, however proteins must have performed their functions with increasing efficiency and specificity. This, in turn, put additional constraints on protein sequences and the fraction of proteins capable of performing their functions at the required level decreased. At some point, the likelihood of generating a sufficiently efficient set of proteins through a non-coded synthesis was so small that further evolution was not possible without storing information about the sequences of these proteins. Beyond this point, further evolution required coupling between proteins and informational polymers that is characteristic to all known forms of life. The emergence of such coupling must be postulated in any scenario of the origin of life, no matter whether it starts with RNA or proteins. To examine the evolutionary potential of non-genomic systems, a simple, computationally tractable model, which is still capable of capturing the essential features of the real system, has been studied computationally. Both constructive and destructive processes have been introduced into the model in a stochastic manner. Instead of assuming random reaction sets, only a suite of protobiologically plausible reactions has been considered. Peptides have been explicitly considered as protoenzymes and their catalytic efficiencies have been assigned on the basis of biochemical principles and experimental estimates. Simulations have been carried out using a novel approach (The Next Reaction Method) that is appropriate even for very low concentrations of reactants. Studies have focused on global autocatalytic processes and their diversity.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

Accurate numerical simulations of open quantum systems using spectral tensor trains

Decoherence between qubits is a major bottleneck in quantum computations. Decoherence results from intrinsic quantum and thermal fluctuations as well as noise in the external fields that perform the measurement and preparation processes. With prescribed colored noise spectra for intrinsic and extrinsic noise, we present a numerical method, Quantum Accelerated Stochastic Propagator Evaluation (Q-ASPEN), to solve the time-dependent noise-averaged reduced density matrix in the presence of intrinsic and extrinsic noise. Q-ASPEN is arbitrarily accurate and can be applied to provide estimates for the resources needed to error-correct quantum computations. We employ spectral tensor trains, which combine the advantages of tensor networks and pseudospectral methods, as a variational ansatz to the quantum relaxation problem and optimize the ansatz using methods typically used to train neural networks. Here, the spectral tensor trains in Q-ASPEN make accurate calculations with tens of quantum levels feasible. We present benchmarks for Q-ASPEN on the spin-boson model in the presence of intrinsic noise and on a quantum chain of up to 32 sites in the presence of extrinsic noise. In our benchmark, the memory cost of Q-ASPEN scales as a low-order polynomial in the size of the system once the number of system states surpasses the number of basis functions used in the spectral expansion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Insensitivity of a turbulent laser-plasma dynamo to initial conditions

It has recently been demonstrated experimentally that a turbulent plasma created by the collision of two inhomogeneous, asymmetric, weakly magnetized, laser-produced plasma jets can generate strong stochastic magnetic fields via the small-scale turbulent dynamo mechanism, provided the magnetic Reynolds number of the plasma is sufficiently large. In this paper, we compare such a plasma with one arising from two pre-magnetized plasma jets whose creation is identical save for the addition of a strong external magnetic field imposed by a pulsed magnetic field generator. We investigate the differences between the two turbulent systems using a Thomson-scattering diagnostic, x-ray self-emission imaging, and proton radiography. The Thomson-scattering spectra and x-ray images suggest that the external magnetic field has a limited effect on the plasma dynamics in the experiment. Although the external magnetic field induces collimation of the flows in the colliding plasma jets and although the initial strengths of the magnetic fields arising from the interaction between the colliding jets are significantly larger as a result of the external field, the energies and morphologies of the stochastic magnetic fields post-amplification are indistinguishable. We conclude that, for turbulent laser-plasmas with supercritical magnetic Reynolds numbers, the dynamo-amplified magnetic fields are determined by the turbulent dynamics rather than the seed fields or modest changes in the initial flow dynamics of the plasma, a finding consistent with theoretical expectations and simulations of turbulent dynamos.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

On the origin of planetary spins

We examine the rate of accretion of mass and spin angular momentum by a spherical solid body ('planet') immersed in a differentially rotating disk of particles ('planetesimals'). If the planet travels on a circular orbit, the accretion process is described by two dimensionless parameters r and s, which measure the ratio of the planet's radius to its Hill radius and the ratio of the rms radial velocity of the planetesimals to the shear across the Hill radius, respectively. Using a combination of analytic arguments and numerical simulations, we derive the mass and angular momentum accretion rates and their scaling with r and s. By introducing an additional parameter, the effective mass of the planetesimals relative to the planet, we can derive the obliquities and spins arising from the stochastic nature of the accretion process. Our results are consistent with those of previous calculations by Lissauer and Kary (1991) wherever there is overlap in parameter space. In particular, we conclude that ordered accretion from a uniform or slowly varying disk of small bodies cannot result in rotation as rapid as that of earth or Mars for any value of the disk velocity dispersion s. The spin rates of these planets are most naturally explained as arising from one or a few 'giant' impacts by planetesimals.

Dones, Luke↗

A Model for Ice Accretion Roughness Evolution and Spatial Variations

Over the past decade, multiple investigations of ice accretion roughness and spatial variations have been performed in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The early investigations used models of NACA 0012 airfoils with different chord sizes and focused on temporal scaling and primary cloud scaling parameters such as stagnation point collection efficiency. Subsequent investigations included the effects of model sweep, airfoil shape, airfoil lifting condition, and freestream static temperature. To develop a predictive model for roughness evolution in generalized icing situations, the maximum roughness values for the airfoils and conditions used in the angle of attack and freestream temperature investigations were scaled to eliminate the temporal variations. LEWICE simulations were employed to identify the local collection efficiency at the locations of maximum roughness, and a two-dimensional panel-method code was used to identify the local static pressure at the location of the maximum roughness. Because of the stochastic nature of ice accretion roughness, a physics-directed approach was employed to develop a multi-dimensional correlation based on the local pressure coefficient, the local total temperature, the cloud properties, and the cloud exposure time. The resulting correlation predictions are compared to ice shapes measured in the IRT for both a 21-in. NACA 0012 airfoil model and a 60-in. HAARP-II model. The resulting predictions indicate that the local freezing fraction must be included in the roughness predictive model. Implications regarding icing heat transfer predictions using the resulting roughness model are also discussed.

Icing↗

Electron Scattering by Low-frequency Whistler Waves at Earth’s Bow Shock

Electrons are accelerated to nonthermal energies at shocks in space and astrophysical environments. While shock drift acceleration (SDA) has been considered a key process of electron acceleration at Earth’s bow shock, it has also been recognized that SDA needs to be combined with an additional stochastic process to explain the observed power-law energy spectra. Here, we show mildly energetic (∼0.5 keV) electrons are locally scattered (and accelerated while being confined) by magnetosonic-whistler waves within the shock transition layer, especially when the shock angle is large (θ(sub Bn) approximately equal or greater than 70°). When measured by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission at a high cadence, ∼0.5 keV electron flux increased exponentially in the shock transition layer. However, the flux profile was not entirely smooth and the fluctuation showed temporal/spectral association with large-amplitude (δB/B ~ 0.3), low-frequency (approximately equal or less than 0.1 Ω(sub ce) where Ω(sub ce) is the cyclotron frequency), obliquely propagating (θ(sub kB) ~ 30°–60°, where θ(sub kB) is the angle between the wave vector and background magnetic field) whistler waves, indicating that the particles were interacting with the waves. Particle simulations demonstrate that, although linear cyclotron resonances with ∼0.5 keV electrons are unlikely due to the obliquity and low frequencies of the waves, the electrons are still scattered beyond 90° pitch angle by (1) resonant mirroring (transit-time damping), (2) non-resonant mirroring, and (3) subharmonic cyclotron resonances. Such coupled nonlinear scattering processes are likely to provide the stochasticity needed to explain the power-law formation.

Oka, M.↗