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At least 973 records · Page 54

Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights

In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km 2 . The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatially Varying Costs of GHG Abatement with Alternative Cellulosic Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Cellulosic biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) can be produced from various feedstocks. The breakeven price and carbon intensity of these feedstock-to-SAF pathways are likely to differ across feedstocks and across spatial locations due to differences in feedstock attributes, productivity, opportunity costs of land for feedstock production, soil carbon effects, and feedstock composition. We integrate feedstock to fuel supply chain economics and life-cycle carbon accounting using the same system boundary to quantify and compare the spatially varying greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and costs of GHG abatement with SAFs derived from four feedstocks (switchgrass, miscanthus, energy sorghum, and corn stover) at 4 km resolution across the U.S. rainfed region. We show that the optimal feedstock for each location differs depending on whether the incentive is to lower breakeven price, carbon intensity, or cost of carbon abatement with biomass or to have high biomass production per unit land. The cost of abating GHG emissions with SAF ranges from $\$181$ Mg –1 CO 2 e to more than $\$444$ Mg –1 CO 2 e and is lowest with miscanthus in the Midwest, switchgrass in the south, and energy sorghum in a relatively small region in the Great Plains. While corn stover-based SAF has the lowest breakeven price per gallon, it has the highest cost of abatement due to its relatively high GHG intensity. Furthermore, our findings imply that different types of policies, such as volumetric targets, tax credits, and low carbon fuel standards, will differ in the mix of feedstocks they incentivize and locations where they are produced in the U.S. rainfed region.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Nanoscale Compositional Mapping of Commercial LiNi 0.8 Co 0.15 Al 0.05 O 2 Cathodes Using Atom Probe Tomography

Nickel-rich cathodes provide improved specific capacity that lead to higher gravimetric energy density, critical for electric vehicles. However, poor long-term capacity retention at elevated temperatures/high C-rates (the rate of charge and discharge on a battery) stem from material issues: surface phase changes, corrosive side reactions with the electrolyte, ion dissolution and propagation of cracks. Introducing dopants, developing nanoscale surface coatings and graded core-shell structures have all improved the electrochemical performance of nickel-rich cathodes. However, a material level understanding on the effect of Li composition and distribution in Ni-rich cathodes is limited, due to a lack of characterization methods available that can directly image Li at the nanoscale. Hence, it is critical to establish methods such as atom probe tomography (APT), having both nanometer scale spatial resolution and high compositional sensitivity to quantitatively analyze battery cathodes. To fully realize its potential as a method for quantitative compositional analysis of commercial Li-ion batteries, we provide a comprehensive description of the challenges in sample preparation and analyze the dependency of the analysis parameters, specifically laser pulse energy on the measured stoichiometry of elements in a high Ni content cathode material; LiNi 0.8 Co 0.15 Al 0.05 O 2 (NCA). In this work, our findings show the stoichiometry variations cannot be explained by charge state ratios or Ga implantation damage alone during FIB preparation, indicating that additional factors such as crystallographic orientation may need to be considered to achieve quantitative nanoscale compositional analysis of such battery cathodes using APT.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spectral Fidelity of Earth's Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems

The Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) investigation will create global maps of spectral surface reflectance and emissivity at a cadence of 16 days or better, with coverage to address global questions about Earth's geology, cryosphere and ecosystems. The revolutionary potential poses a commensurate challenge: creating contiguous maps free from regional biases induced by atmosphere, observation geometry, or inversion error. This will require an accurate calibration with precise knowledge of each channel's spectral response. In this work, we quantify the impact of spectral calibration on SBG's aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem objectives. We find that contemporary algorithms for ecosystem trait retrieval demand more accurate spectral calibration than historical missions. Errors due to drift or spatial nonuniformity in the wavelength calibration that have previously been considered acceptable can cause systematic errors larger than the instrument noise and of the same order as the variability SBG aims to measure. Moreover, their impact on atmospheric correction can induce climate-dependent systematic errors that thwart comparisons between ecosystems. These results underscore the importance of spectral response accuracy in SBG mission design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Excited state lifetime modulation in semiconductor nanocrystals for super-resolution imaging

Abstract We report on proof of principle measurements of a concept for a super-resolution imaging method that is based on excitation field density-dependent lifetime modulation of semiconductor nanocrystals. The prerequisite of the technique is access to semiconductor nanocrystals with emission lifetimes that depend on the excitation intensity. Experimentally, the method requires a confocal microscope with fluorescence-lifetime measurement capability that makes it easily accessible to a broad optical imaging community. We demonstrate with single particle imaging that the method allows one to achieve a spatial resolution of the order of several tens of nanometers at moderate fluorescence excitation intensity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measurement of atomic oxygen densities using TALIF on a dielectric barrier discharge: insights into the volume above a micro cavity plasma array

Dielectric barrier discharges, particularly micro cavity plasma arrays, offer significant potential for plasma-catalytic research due to their ability to ignite plasma in direct contact with a catalytic surface, enabling the observation of plasma-surface interactions. A key factor in their application is the generation of reactive species, such as atomic oxygen, within the cavities. These species can interact with both the surface (e.g. for activation or cleaning) and the gas being treated (e.g. for oxidation). Given the central role of oxygen atoms in plasma catalysis and their use as a model for more complex species, this work investigates the transport of these atoms out of the cavities. Two-photon absorption laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy with picosecond laser excitation is performed in the volume above the cavities. The results are compared with a basic diffusion model. The reactor operates with a He/O 2 mixture at a flow rate of 1 slm and atmospheric pressure. Densities of up to 10 16 cm -3 are measured near the surface. Time-dependent measurements show that, at a distance of 350 µm from the surface, a density equilibrium is reached within less than 3 ms of reactor operation. Decay times due to ozone formation after the reactor is turned off are on a similar scale. Spatially resolved measurements show that the oxygen density decreases exponentially from the surface but remains detectable up to approximately 1 mm above the surface, indicating significant application potential. Variations in the O 2 admixture show a density maximum at 0.4%, confirming previous helium state enhanced actinometry measurements within the cavities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Data for Spatially Varying Costs of GHG Abatement with Alternative Cellulosic Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Cellulosic biomass-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) can be produced from various feedstocks. The breakeven price and carbon intensity of these feedstock-to-SAF pathways are likely to differ across feedstocks and across spatial locations due to differences in feedstock attributes, productivity, opportunity costs of land for feedstock production, soil carbon effects, and feedstock composition. We integrate feedstock to fuel supply chain economics and life-cycle carbon accounting using the same system boundary to quantify and compare the spatially varying greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities and costs of GHG abatement with SAFs derived from four feedstocks (switchgrass, miscanthus, energy sorghum, and corn stover) at 4 km resolution across the U.S. rainfed region. We show that the optimal feedstock for each location differs depending on whether the incentive is to lower breakeven price, carbon intensity, or cost of carbon abatement with biomass or to have high biomass production per unit land. The cost of abating GHG emissions with SAF ranges from $181 Mg−1 CO2e to more than $444 Mg−1 CO2e and is lowest with miscanthus in the Midwest, switchgrass in the south, and energy sorghum in a relatively small region in the Great Plains. While corn stover-based SAF has the lowest breakeven price per gallon, it has the highest cost of abatement due to its relatively high GHG intensity. Our findings imply that different types of policies, such as volumetric targets, tax credits, and low carbon fuel standards, will differ in the mix of feedstocks they incentivize and locations where they are produced in the U.S. rainfed region. Note: Column V in TableS7_DayCentSimulatedYield.csv should be labelled Corn Stover CoSo-NT-50% Max.

Geospatial↗

Quantum ghost imaging microscopy depth-of-field study

Quantum ghost imaging approaches have been proposed to enhance biological microscopy, for example, using 2D visible detectors to provide IR images or providing additional dimensions of spatial or spectral information. Toward the goal of making such imaging schemes practical, we compare image quality and depth-of-field between traditional images and ghost images at the same excitation levels. We measure how image quality and depth-of-field depend on the parameters of the entangled light produced using type-I spontaneous parametric down-conversion (SPDC). We use a pair of time-synchronized, photon-timing single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) array detectors to capture two distinct microscope imaging paths simultaneously on a photon-pair-by-photon-pair basis: one in a traditional imaging pathway and the other a quantum ghost imaging pathway. We calculate the depth-of-field, resolution, contrast, and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) through the parameter space of a β-Barium Borate (BBO) type-I bulk non-linear crystal length and angle. Our results provide a basis for choosing parameters for quantum ghost imaging with type-I SPDC sources.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗

Resolution Study of Thermonuclear Initiation in White Dwarf Tidal Disruption Events

Abstract We study the initiation of thermonuclear detonations in tidally disrupted white dwarf stars by intermediate-mass (10 3 M ⊙ ) black holes. The length scales required to resolve the initiation mechanism are not easily reached in 3D, so instead we have devised 2D proxy models, which, together with a logarithmic gridding strategy, can adequately capture detonation wave fronts as material undergoes simultaneous compression and stretching from tidal forces. We consider 0.15 and 0.6 M ⊙ white dwarf stars parameterized by tidal strengths in the range β = 4–23. High spatial resolution elucidates the manner and conditions leading to thermonuclear detonation, linking the initiation sequence to stellar composition and tidal strength. All of our models suffer sustained detonations triggered by a combination of adiabatic compression, mild thermonuclear preconditioning, and collisional heating, in degrees depending primarily on tidal strength. We find that many diagnostics, such as temperature, total released energy, and iron-group products, are fairly well converged (better than 10%) at resolutions below 10 km along the scale height of the orbital plane. The exceptions are intermediate-mass transients like calcium, which remain uncertain up to factors of 2, even at 1 km resolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Preliminary searches for spin-dependent interactions using sidebands of nuclear spin-precession signals

Various theories beyond the Standard Model predict new particles with masses in the sub-eV range with very weak couplings to ordinary matter. A new P-odd and T-odd interaction between polarized and unpolarized nucleons proportional to s⃗⋅r̂ is one such possibility, where r⃗=rr̂ is the spatial vector connecting the nucleons, and s⃗ is the spin of the polarized nucleon. Such an interaction involving a scalar coupling gsN at one vertex and a pseudoscalar coupling gpn at the polarized nucleon vertex can be induced by the exchange of spin-0 pseudoscalar bosons. We describe a new technique to search for interactions of this form and present the first measurements of this type. We show that future improvements to this technique can improve the laboratory upper bound on the product gsNgpn by two orders of magnitude for interaction ranges at the 100 micron scale.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Impacts of the Conductive Networks on Solid‐State Battery Operation

The micromorphology of composite cathodes is known to play a vital role in determining all-solid-state battery (ASSB) performance. However, much of our current understanding is derived from empirical observations, lacking a deeper mechanistic foundation. The “rocking chair” concept of battery chemistry requires maintaining charge neutrality, emphasizing the necessity of examining electrode micromorphology from the perspective of conductive networks. This study systematically investigates the microscopic electrochemical impacts of conductive network micromorphology by varying the Li + -to-e − channel ratio in cathodes comprising LiNbO 3 -coated LiNi 0.8 Co 0.1 Mn 0.1 O 2 , Li 6 PS 5 Cl, and carbon fibers. Utilizing multiscale synchrotron-based spectro-microscopy, we unravel that unbalanced Li + and e − conducting channels intensify charge polarization within active cathode particles and accelerate their degradation. A further model system with X-ray nano-tomography resolved e − and Li + channels indicates that spatially uniform and well-paired Li + and e − conducting channels are highly desirable as they could promote more uniform lithiation/delithiation, mitigating microscopic electrochemical polarization. Electrode-scale X-ray holotomography analysis reveals that the impact of conductive networks is particle-size-dependent, with smaller cathode particles being more significantly affected. These findings provide mechanistic insights into the interplay between conductive networks and all-solid-state battery operation, laying the groundwork for rational design and optimization of cathode architectures in future solid-state battery technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stabilization of Photocatalytically Active Uranyl Species in a Uranyl–Organic Framework for Heterogeneous Alkane Fluorination Driven by Visible Light

When photoactivated, the uranyl ion is a robust oxidant capable of abstracting hydrogen atoms from nonactivated C–H bonds. Yet, the highly reactive singly reduced [U V O 2 ] + intermediate is unstable with respect to disproportionation to the uranyl dication and insoluble tetravalent uranium phases, which limits the usage of uranyl ions as robust photocatalysts. Herein, we demonstrate that photoactivated uranyl ions can be stabilized by immobilizing and separating them spatially in a uranyl–organic framework heterogeneous catalyst, NU-1301. The visible-light-photoactivated uranyl ions in NU-1301 demonstrated longer-lived U(V) and radicals than those in homogeneous counterparts, as evidenced by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and time-dependent electron paramagnetic resonance, leading to higher turnovers and enhanced stability for the fluorination of nonactivated alkanes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optical Detection of Long Electron Spin Transport Lengths in a Monolayer Semiconductor

Using a spatially resolved optical pump-probe experiment, we measure the lateral transport of spin-valley polarized electrons over very long distances (tens of micrometers) in a single WSe 2 monolayer. By locally pumping the Fermi sea of 2D electrons to a high degree of spin-valley polarization (up to 75%) using circularly polarized light, the lateral diffusion of the electron polarization can be mapped out via the photoluminescence induced by a spatially separated and linearly polarized probe laser. In this work, up to 25% spin-valley polarization is observed at pump-probe separations up to 20 μm. Characteristic spin-valley diffusion lengths of 18 ± 3 μm are revealed at low temperatures. The dependence on temperature, pump helicity, pump intensity, and electron density highlight the key roles played by spin relaxation time and pumping efficiency on polarized electron transport in monolayer semiconductors possessing spin-valley locking.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Global anthropogenic emissions (CAMS-GLOB-ANT) for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service simulations of air quality forecasts and reanalyses

Anthropogenic emissions are the result of many different economic sectors, including transportation, power generation, industrial, residential and commercial activities, waste treatment and agricultural practices. Air quality models are used to forecast the atmospheric composition, analyze observations and reconstruct the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the previous decades. In order to drive these models, gridded emissions of all compounds need to be provided. This paper describes a new global inventory of emissions called CAMS-GLOB-ANT, developed as part of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS; https://doi.org/10.24380/eets-qd81, Soulie et al., 2023). The inventory provides monthly averages of the global emissions of 36 compounds, including the main air pollutants and greenhouse gases, at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° in latitude and longitude, for 17 emission sectors. The methodology to generate the emissions for the 2000–2023 period is explained, and the datasets are analyzed and compared with publicly available global and regional inventories for selected world regions. Depending on the species and regions, good agreements as well as significant differences are highlighted, which can be further explained through an analysis of different sectors as shown in the figures in the Supplement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385

Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integrating Multi-Source Data for Bi-Level Traffic Simulator Calibration: A Literature Review and Highway Case Study

Traffic simulation serves as a powerful tool for pre-evaluating policies and technologies. In this context, simulation-based Dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models are capable of capturing traffic dynamics. They are well-known as critical tools in controlling and predicting traffic situations. The reliability of simulation results heavily depends on the calibration process. Most studies in the literature formulate and calibrate simulators based on a single source of collected data or multiple data sets with the same spatiotemporal characteristics. However, in practice, traffic data is collected by various tools with usually different spatial and temporal resolutions. This study introduces a novel approach to taking into account diverse input data from a variety of sources. An iterative bi-level solution is proposed. to equally treat traffic flow and speed data. The upper level solves flow calibration with the exact solution method, and the lower level calibrates the speed with the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm. Subsequently, the effectiveness of the proposed model is investigated using data from a six-mile section of Nashville's I-24 highway in Tennessee. The results demonstrate that our proposed model creates an effective feedback loop between the optimizer and the simulator for calibrating flow and speed to reduce the error between simulated and real data.

42 ENGINEERING↗