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NASA NTRS2003

Estimation of Model Error Variances During Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is all about understanding the error characteristics of the data and models that are used in the assimilation process. Reliable error estimates are needed to implement observational quality control, bias correction of observations and model fields, and intelligent data selection. Meaningful covariance specifications are obviously required for the analysis as well, since the impact of any single observation strongly depends on the assumed structure of the background errors. Operational atmospheric data assimilation systems still rely primarily on climatological background error covariances. To obtain error estimates that reflect both the character of the flow and the current state of the observing system, it is necessary to solve three problems: (1) how to account for the short-term evolution of errors in the initial conditions; (2) how to estimate the additional component of error caused by model defects; and (3) how to compute the error reduction in the analysis due to observational information. Various approaches are now available that provide approximate solutions to the first and third of these problems. However, the useful accuracy of these solutions very much depends on the size and character of the model errors and the ability to account for them. Model errors represent the real-world forcing of the error evolution in a data assimilation system. Clearly, meaningful model error estimates and/or statistics must be based on information external to the model itself. The most obvious information source is observational, and since the volume of available geophysical data is growing rapidly, there is some hope that a purely statistical approach to model error estimation can be viable. This requires that the observation errors themselves are well understood and quantifiable. We will discuss some of these challenges and present a new sequential scheme for estimating model error variances from observations in the context of an atmospheric data assimilation system.

Dee, Dick↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applicability of 1D site response analysis to shallow sedimentary basins: A critical evaluation through physics-based 3D ground motion simulations

One-dimensional site response analysis (1D SRA) remains the standard practice in considering the effect of local soil deposits and predicting site-specific ground motions, although its range of applicability to realistic seismic wavefields is still in question. In this 1D approach, horizontal and vertical ground shaking are assumed to be induced by vertically propagating shear and compressional waves, respectively. A recent study based on analytical two-dimensional (2D) plane waves and simple point source earthquake simulations has shown two mechanistic limitations in this 1D modelling technique for general inclined seismic waves, that is, systematic over-prediction of the vertical motion and wave trapping in the 1D soil column. In this article, we evaluate in detail the applicability of this 1D modelling approach to realistic three-dimensional (3D) simulated seismic wavefields in shallow sedimentary basins. Linear-viscoelastic 1D SRA predictions using two types of input motions that are commonly used in practice—rock outcrop and in-column motions, are compared with the reference true site response results from 3D earthquake simulations in terms of various measures in the frequency and time domain. It is shown that the horizontal motion in the 3D seismic wavefield exhibits dominant shear wave propagation phenomenon, while the vertical motion is a combined effect of compressional and shear waves and can be over-predicted by the 1D approach when the incident seismic waves are inclined. Direct evidence of the wave refraction process that leads to the vertical motion over-prediction is provided. 1D SRA with in-column inputs can yield motions that have significantly longer duration compared to the true 3D site response solution due to trapped waves, casting in doubt the frequent need for increased soil damping in existing site studies to compensate for wave attenuation due to scattering alone. Sensitivity investigation on the increase of soil profile damping by a multiplier D mul shows D mul values compatible with those found in the literature for both horizontal and vertical motions. It is shown that the level of D mul optimized for a best match of the spectral acceleration is dependent on the characteristic of the input motion and a larger D mul is typically required for the vertical component. In contrast, 1D SRA with outcrop motions predicts motions with shorter significant duration due to its inability to capture the basin-edge generated surface waves. A suite of ground motion simulations was performed to assess the sensitivity of the observations to the basin geologic structure including the velocity gradient, rock-basin impedance contrast and basin depth. The analysis results show that the accuracy of the simplified 1D procedure is dependent on the wavefield composition of both the input motions and the true 3D site response solution. While the horizontal motions in shallow sedimentary basins can, to the first order, be reasonably captured by the simplified 1D approach, 1D SRA for the vertical component is in general not reliable and contributions from inclined shear waves should be accounted for in site-specific evaluation of the vertical design ground motion.

1D assumption↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of CdTe photovoltaic cells for ambient light energy harvesting

This paper investigates the suitability of CdTe photovoltaic cells to be used as power sources for wireless sensors located in buildings. We fabricate and test a CdTe photovoltaic cell with a transparent conducting oxide front contact that provides for high photocurrents and low series resistance at low light intensities and measures the photovoltaic response of this cell across five orders of magnitude of AM1.5G light intensity. Efficiencies of 10% and 17.1% are measured under ~1 W m -2 AM1.5G and LED irradiance respectively, the highest values for a CdTe device under ambient lighting measured to date. We use our results to assess the potential of CdTe for internet of things devices from an optoelectronic, as well as a techno-economic perspective, considering its established manufacturing know-how, potential for low-cost, proven long-term stability and issues around the use of cadmium.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1985

NASTRAN supplemental documentation for modal forced vibration analysis of aerodynamically excited turbosystems

This report is a supplemental NASTRAN document for a new capability to determine the vibratory response of turbosystems subjected to aerodynamic excitation. Supplements of NASTRAN Theoretical, User's, Programmer's, and Demonstration Manuals are included. Turbosystems such as advanced turbopropellers with highly swept blades, and axial-flow compressors and turbines can be analyzed using this capability, which has been developed and implemented in the April 1984 release of the general purpose finite element program NASTRAN. The dynamic response problem is addressed in terms of the normal modal coordinates of these tuned rotating cyclic structures. Both rigid and flexible hubs/disks are considered. Coriolis and centripetal accelerations, as well as differential stiffness effects are included. Generally nonuniform steady inflow fields and uniform flow fields arbitrarily inclined at small angles with respect to the axis of rotation of the turbosystem are considered as the sources of aerodynamic excitation. The spatial nonuniformities are considered to be small deviations from a principally uniform inflow. Subsonic relative inflows are addressed, with provision for linearly interpolating transonic airloads.

Elchuri, V.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Geological Thermal Energy Storage Using Solar Thermal and Carnot Batteries: Techno-Economic Analysis: Preprint

Energy storage is increasingly necessary as Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are deployed. Seasonal energy storage can shift energy generation from the summer to the winter, but these technologies must have extremely large energy capacities and low costs. Geological Thermal energy storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution for long-term energy storage. Excess thermal energy can be stored in permeable reservoirs such as aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for several months. In this article, we describe a techno-economic model that has been developed to evaluate GeoTES systems. The models are developed by combining the output of specialist models which enables the performance and cost of both the subsurface and surface systems to be captured. Off-design models are developed so that the performance can be evaluated at each hour of the year. GeoTES can be charged with two different energy sources: (1) concentrating solar thermal and (2) renewable electricity using heat pumps (henceforth known as a "Carnot Battery"). The stored thermal energy can be used to generate electricity and - uniquely - also directly produce heat that can be used by industrial processes. Furthermore, Carnot-Battery-GeoTES can also be used to form a cold storage reservoir. Preliminary results that quantify the technical and economic performance of these two GeoTES systems are presented.

carnot battery↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract Wetlands are the largest and most climate‐sensitive natural sources of methane. Accurately estimating wetland methane emissions involves reconciling inversion (“top‐down”) and process‐based (“bottom‐up”) models within the global methane budget. However, estimates from these two model types are inherently interdependent and often reveal substantial discrepancies. To enhance the reliability of both approaches, we need a comprehensive understanding of wetland methane emissions and an independent high‐resolution long‐term flux data set. Here, we employed a data‐driven random forest approach to identify key variables influencing methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The model‐estimated monthly mean methane fluxes fit well with measured methane fluxes ( R 2 = 0.67) at four representative FLUXNET‐CH4 wetland sites across the region. Variable importance analysis highlighted the sensitivity of subtropical freshwater wetland methane emissions to variations in both temperature and water levels. High temperatures facilitate methanogenesis by enhancing microbial activities, while elevated water levels maintain anaerobic conditions necessary for methane production. Notably, the response of methane emissions to water level fluctuations is contingent on temperature conditions, and vice versa. Moreover, we constructed the first high‐spatial‐resolution (∼1 km × 1 km) and long‐term (1982–2010) gridded regional wetland methane flux product for the Southeastern United States, estimating annual methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the region at 4.93 ± 0.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 for 1982–2010. This new benchmark product holds promise for validating and parameterizing uncertain wetland methane emission processes in bottom‐up models and provides improved prior information for top‐down models.

He, Keqi [Earth and Climate Sciences Nicholas Scho↗

NASA NTRS2012

A New Low Magnetic Field Magnetar: The 2011 Outburst of Swift J1822.3-1606

We report on the long-term X-ray monitoring with Swift, RXTE, Suzaku, Chandra, and XMM-Newton of the outburst of the newly discovered magnetar Swift J1822.3−1606 (SGR 1822−1606), from the first observations soon after the detection of the short X-ray bursts which led to its discovery, through the first stages of its outburst decay (covering the time span from 2011 July until the end of 2012 April).We also report on archival ROSAT observations which detected the source during its likely quiescent state, and on upper limits on Swift J1822.3−1606's radio-pulsed and optical emission during outburst, with the Green Bank Telescope and the Gran Telescopio Canarias, respectively. Our X-ray timing analysis finds the source rotating with a period of P = 8.43772016(2) s and a period derivative P-dot = 8.3(2)×10(exp −14) s/ s, which implies an inferred dipolar surface magnetic field of B approx. = 2.7×10(exp 13) G at the equator. This measurement makes Swift J1822.3−1606 the second lowest magnetic field magnetar (after SGR 0418+5729). Following the flux and spectral evolution from the beginning of the outburst, we find that the flux decreased by about an order of magnitude, with a subtle softening of the spectrum, both typical of the outburst decay of magnetars. By modeling the secular thermal evolution of Swift J1822.3−1606, we find that the observed timing properties of the source, as well as its quiescent X-ray luminosity, can be reproduced if it was born with a poloidal and crustal toroidal fields of B(sup p) approx.. 1.5×10(exp 14) G and B(sub tor) approx.. 7×10(exp 14) G, respectively, and if its current age is approx. 550 kyr.

MAGNETAR↗

NASA NTRS2017

Influence of Mid-Latitude Cyclones on European Background Surface Ozone Investigated in Observations, MACC and MERRA-2 Reanalyses

The relationship between springtime mid-latitude cyclones and background ozone at two rural monitoring sites on the west coast of Europe -- Mace Head, Ireland and Monte Velho, Portugal -- is explored using a combination of observations and three reanalyses: 1) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis, 2) the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis and 3) NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis. The ERA-Interim cyclone tracks are used here to establish the long-term relationship between cyclones and ozone observations (since 1988). The MACC reanalysis data set, which covers the period 2003-2012, is produced with the ECMWF integrated forecast system (IFS) model two-way coupled to a chemistry transport model (CTM). Since the MACC reanalysis uses a similar atmospheric model to ERA-Interim, MACC is used to explore the mechanisms within the case study cyclones that can influence surface ozone concentrations at Mace Head and Monte Velho. The MERRA-2 reanalysis also provides 3D distributions of ozone, although less ideal for analysis of surface ozone concentrations since MERRA-2 ozone under represents ozone variability outside the stratosphere as it does not have a detailed chemistry scheme or emission sources for the troposphere. The MERRA-2 reanalysis, which has the potential to identify more features within the cyclones as the resolution is higher than the MACC reanalysis, is used in conjunction with the MACC reanalysis to provide a measure of uncertainty to the case study analysis. We found the main source of high ozone to these two sites is from the stratosphere, which is well represented in both the MERRA-2 and the MACC reanalyses, either from direct injection into the cyclone or associated with aged airstreams from decaying downstream cyclones that can become entrained and descend toward the surface within new cyclones over the NA region.

MERRA-2↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fatigue analysis of the Spallation Neutron Source 2 MW target design

Upgrades to the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory are under way with two major projects. The first project is the Proton Power Upgrade (PPU), which will double the power capacity of the SNS accelerator system to enable the operation of a future second neutron source target station—the second project. PPU also will increase power to the SNS first target station – which currently operates at 1.4 MW with 1.0 GeV protons – to 2 MW with 1.3 GeV protons. Final design of the PPU 2 MW target module is finished, including all necessary design and analysis calculations. The fatigue evaluation described herein is an assessment of the fitness of the PPU 2 MW target mercury vessel to resist failure from cyclic loading from the pulsed 60 Hz proton beam and thermal changes from disrupted operation. In addition to the reliability predictions, the method, detail, and depth of this fatigue evaluation are superior to those of past target design assessments. Furthermore, the thermal fatigue life is predicted to exceed 3125 thermal cycles per 1250 h of operation for all load cases. The design also meets the (relative) fatigue design goal for combined thermal and pulse loading of greater than 0.5 times the minimum fatigue life calculated for a jet-flow target design operating at 1.4 MW—the most robust design to date in terms of resistance to fatigue failure. From the onset of the PPU, it has been known that pulse loading requires effective application of helium gas injection into the target mercury to reduce beam pressure loading. For the PPU 2 MW target, none of the pulse load cases requires a maximum strain reduction from gas injection of more than 50% (for base material) to meet the fatigue design goal. This level of reduction is achievable from gas injection, according to historical strain measurements from 1.4 MW target operation. Overall, the PPU 2 MW target design is predicted to have superior resistance to fatigue failure compared with past target designs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Propagation of Summer Extreme Precipitation Events over United States: A Complex Network Analysis

Complex Network (CN) is a graph-theory based depiction of relation shared by various elements of a complex-dynamical system such as the atmosphere. Here we applied the concept of CN to understand the directionality and topological structure of summer extreme precipitation events (SEPEs) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SEPEs are calculated based on the 95th percentile daily rainfall at 0.5ox0.5o spatial resolution for CONUS to investigate the multi-dimensional characteristics of precipitation extremes. The derived CN coefficients (e.g., betweenness centrality, clustering coefficient, orientation, and network divergence) reveal important structural and dynamical information about the topology of the SEPEs and improve understanding of the dominant meteorological patterns. The initiation and propagation of SEPEs from the source-zones to the sink-zones are identified. The SEPEs are influenced by topography, dominant wind patterns, and moisture sources in terms of their topological structure and spatial dynamics.

Mondal, Somnath↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Afro-Asian water fluxes in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models: Present-day evaluation and future projections

Accurate representation and projection of water fluxes are vital, particularly in monsoon regions where seasonal variability and changes significantly impact water resources, agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and the economy. This study uses both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to investigate the present-day representation of key water flux components (including precipitation, evaporation, water vapor, and moisture advection) over the Afro-Asian region during the summer monsoon (JJAS). We also examine future changes under two emission scenarios and assess the underlying physical mechanisms driving these changes while identifying sources of projection uncertainty. Our results show that both models reasonably capture the present-day characteristics of water flux components, although with noticeable biases. Across most regions, we find that CMIP6 models demonstrate slight improvements over CMIP5 in the representation of these components. In a warmer future, a robust intensification of JJAS precipitation (exceeding 0.25 mm/day) is projected across the Afro-Asian region. This increase is largely driven by the vertical thermodynamic term associated with increasing temperature. We find that model uncertainty is the primary source of uncertainty in water flux projections, accounting for over 50 % of the total variance.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metal-supported solid oxide fuel cells operating with reformed natural gas and sulfur

The performance, long-term durability, and thermal cycling tolerance of metal supported solid oxide fuel cells (MS-SOFCs) operating with natural gas reformate fuels is assessed. Symmetric MS-SOFCs with composite SDC-Ni anode catalysts and PrO x cathode catalysts are operated with simulated natural gas steam-reformate and partial-oxidation-reformate fuels with 1 ppm and 5 ppm of sulfur. Cells are operated for 1000 h with initial degradation rates similar to humidified H 2 , and initial performance differences attributed to the lower H 2 concentration in reformate fuels. Additionally, cells tolerate many aggressive thermal cycles with sulfur present, with minimal impact on performance. Post mortem analysis suggests that Ni particle coarsening and Cr deposition are sources of degradation, while carbon and sulfur deposition are not observed. Overall, MS-SOFCs operate successfully with reformed natural gas.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1977

Melt immiscibility in Apollo 15 KREEP - Origin of Fe-rich mare basalts

Silicate liquid immiscibility (SLI) is investigated in terms of chemistry and occurrence in two KREEP-rich Apollo 15 basalts. The two samples have different cooling histories but the same composition. In the first sample, SLI occurred at the time of 58% crystallization. In the second sample, SLI occurred after 20% had crystallized. It is noted that SLI could be initiated as soon as plagioclase (out of a total composition which also included zircon, FeS, SiO2, whitlockite, and ilmenite) alone had crystallized. Attention is given to Fe-rich immiscible melts, and it is suggested that SLI may play an important role in the formation of the source regions of Fe-rich mare basalts. The analytical technique used for the assays was an energy dispersive analysis system with a resolution of 167 eV.

Hollister, L. S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Polar plasmas as observed by Dynamics Explorers 1 and 2

Plasma measurements from the Dynamics Explorer 1 and 2 satellites were used to characterize the polar cap environment. Analysis of numerous polar-cap passes indicate that, in general, three major regimes of plasma exist: (1) polar rain--electrons with magnetosheath-like energy spectra but much lower densities, most intense near the cusp and weakening toward the central polar cap; (2) polar wind--low energy upward flowing ions with both field-aligned and conical distributions; and (3) acceleration events--sporadic events consistent with the acceleration of electrons and positive ions by parallel electric fields. (1) to (3) were observed at high altitudes by Dynamics Explorer 1, while (1) and (3) were also observed at low altitudes by Dynamics Explorer 2. The plasma parameters associated with these plasma regimes are presented and discussed in terms of source and acceleration mechanisms.

Barfield, J. N.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact analysis of heating electrification in US buildings with geothermal heat pumps

Few studies have investigated the impacts of large-scale deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs, also called ground source heat pumps) on the electric grid. GHPs utilize the ground as a heat source to warm buildings more efficiently than other space-heating systems. The coupling with the ground offers seasonal thermal storage so that GHPs can also cool buildings in summer more efficiently than other space-cooling systems. This study simulated the performance of GHP systems for various commercial and residential buildings in 15 climate zones in the United States. Combined with the latest End-Use Load Profiles of the US building stock and grid modeling, this study aims to assess the impacts of a national deployment of GHP systems on the US electric grid in terms of energy consumption, emissions, and operational resilience. The preliminary results show that the GHP deployment can save 429 billion kWh of electricity (a 19% reduction from baseline) and reduce carbon emissions by 496 million tons per year (a 31 % reduction from baseline). A geographical view of the results indicates that retrofitting existing HVAC systems with new GHP systems can lead to further reductions in annual electricity consumption and peak electricity demand in the southern regions of the United States than in other parts of the country. On the other hand, GHP retrofits result in higher percentages of site energy savings and carbon emission reduction in the north (cold climates) than in the south (warm climates).

Liu, Xiaobing↗

NASA NTRS1993

A numerical procedure for analysis of finite rate reacting flows

Combustion processes in rocket propulsion systems are characterized by the existence of multiple, vastly differing time and length scales, as well as flow-speeds at wide variation of Mach numbers. The chemical kinetics processes in the highly active reaction zone are characterized by much smaller scales compared to fluid convective and diffusive time scales. An operator splitting procedure for transient finite rate chemistry problems has been developed using a pressure based method, which can be applied to all speed flows without difficulties. The splitting of chemical kinetics terms formed the fluid-mechanical terms of the species equation ameliorated the difficulties associated with the disparate time scales and stiffness in the set of equations which describes highly exothermic combustion. A combined efficient ordinary differential equations (ODE) solver was used to integrate the effective chemical source terms over the residence time at each grid cell. One and two dimensional reacting flow situations were carried out to demonstrate and verify the current procedure. Different chemical kinetics with different degrees of nonlinearity have also been incorporated to test the robustness and generality of the proposed method.

Shang, H. M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Ciliated protozoa of two antarctic lakes: analysis by quantitative protargol staining and examination of artificial substrates

Planktonic and artificial substrate-associated ciliates have been identified in two perennially ice-covered antarctic lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Abundances estimated by quantitative protargol staining ranged from < 5 to 31690 cells l-1, levels that are comparable to those previously obtained using other methods. Nineteen ciliate taxa were identified from these lakes, with the most frequently encountered genera being Plagiocampa, Askenasia, Monodinium, Sphaerophrya and Vorticella. The taxonomic findings compare favorably with those of previous investigators; however four previously unreported genera were observed in both Lakes Fryxell and Hoare. The variability in the depth distributions of ciliates in Lake Fryxell is explained in terms of lake physicochemical properties and ciliate prey distributions, while factors related to temporal succession in the Lake Hoare assemblage remain unexplained. Local marine or temperate zone freshwater habitats are a more likely source than the surrounding dry valleys soils for present ciliate colonists in these lakes. Although the taxonomic uncertainties require further examination, our results suggest that ciliate populations in these antarctic lakes undergo significant fluctuations and are more diverse than was previously recognized.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the theoretical limitations in estimating thickness of a plate-like structure from a full-field single-tone response Lamb wave measurement

A persistent question in wavenumber analysis in the estimation of thickness from a steady-state wave field is identifying the theoretical sensitivity of the system. Here, a well-known trade-off between spatial frequency/wavenumber resolution and thickness resolution exists. The current work presents a calculation of the Cramer-Rao Lower bound (CRLB), specifically as applied to thickness estimates, for a 2-dimensional multi-mode waveform in Gaussian noise. Cases of near-field and far-field excitation are considered, and transducer position with respect to the scan area is also varied. Additionally, we consider the CRLB in a plate with multiple sources, simulated as sources placed on the boundary of the plate. We conclude by presenting the CRLB values in terms of frequency for various thicknesses, and by presenting optimal excitation frequencies for a nominal thickness, based on the CRLB.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗