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DOE OSTI2022

When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?

It is predicted by both theory and models that high-altitude clouds will occur higher in the atmosphere as a result of climate warming. This produces a positive longwave feedback and has a substantial impact on the Earth's response to warming. This effect is well established by theory, but is poorly constrained by observations, and there is large spread in the feedback strength between climate models. For this study, we use the NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to examine changes in Cloud-Top-Height (CTH). MISR uses a stereo-imaging technique to determine CTH. This approach is geometric in nature and insensitive to instrument calibration and therefore is well suited for trend analysis and studies of variability on long time scales. In this article we show that the current MISR record does have an increase in CTH for high-altitude cloud over Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans but not over Tropical or the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We use climate model simulations to estimate when MISR might be expected to detect trends in CTH, that include the NH. The analysis suggests that according to the models used in this study MISR should detect changes over the SH ocean earlier than the NH, and if the model predictions are correct should be capable of detecting a trend over the Tropics and NH very soon (3–10 years). This result highlights the potential value of a follow-on mission to MISR, which no longer maintains a fixed equator crossing time and is unlikely to be making observations for another 10 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

WRF Modelling of Deep Convection and Hail for Wind Power Applications

Deep convection and the related occurrence of hail, intense precipitation and wind gusts represent a hazard to a range of energy infrastructure including wind turbine blades. Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is caused by the impact of falling hydrometeors onto rotating wind turbine blades. It is a major source of wind turbine maintenance costs and energy losses from wind farms. In the United States Southern Great Plains (SGP), where there is widespread wind energy development, deep convection and hail events are common, increasing the potential for precipitation-driven LEE. A 25-day Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation conducted at convection-permitting resolution and using a detailed microphysics scheme is carried out for the SGP to evaluate the effectiveness in modelling the wind and precipitation conditions relevant to LEE potential. WRF output for these properties is evaluated using radar observations of precipitation (including hail) and reflectivity, in situ wind speed measurements and wind power generation. This research demonstrates some skill for the primary drivers of LEE. Wind speeds, rainfall rates and precipitation totals show good agreement with observations. Here, the occurrence of precipitation during power producing wind speeds is also shown to exhibit fidelity. Hail events frequently occur during periods when wind turbines are rotating and are especially important to LEE in the SGP. The presence of hail is modelled with a mean proportion correct of 0.77 and an odds ratio 4.55. Further research is needed to demonstrate sufficient model performance to be actionable for the wind energy industry and there is evidence for positive model bias in cloud reflectivity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air Classification of Forestry Residues for Fast Pyrolysis

Understanding critical biomass attributes through efficient fractionation is crucial for advancing sustainable pyrolysis for renewable energy and chemical production. This study investigates the intricate relationship between biomass preprocessing and pyrolysis product yields, employing the air classification technique for the treatment of loblolly pine residues with varying moisture content. A comprehensive exploration of the physicochemical properties of air-classified loblolly pine informs a sophisticated pyrolysis simulation model. Given the complex and multifaceted nature of biomass pyrolysis, operating across diverse temporal and spatial scales, a pyrolysis kinetics-based CFD–DEM simulation method is employed to predict product yields. Results showed that the elevated moisture content amplifies particle adhesiveness, necessitating augmented air velocities for effective separation, thereby influencing the efficiency of the separation process. While carbon and hydrogen contents exhibit relative stability across diverse moisture contents and blower frequencies, the oxygen content undergoes noticeable changes. For example, the oxygen contents were measured as 29.2 and 38.6 wt% in the light fraction of 30% moisture content sample at blower frequencies of 10 and 20 Hz, respectively. An intriguing finding emerges from pyrolysis simulation, indicating that a lower blower frequency in air classification moderately enhances bio-oil yield and significantly improves its quality, particularly in terms of water content. For instance, the water content in the bio-oil was about 1.5% and 10% in the heavy and light fractions, respectively from 10% moisture sample under 15 Hz blower frequency.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of the Impact of Point Defects and Edge Dislocations on X-Ray Diffraction in Hexagonal (Ni,Co) 1+2 x Ti 1– x O 3 Thin Films

In this work, a computer code for simulating high-resolution X-ray diffraction (XRD) data from disordered crystals with arbitrary spatial composition and local lattice parameters is developed. Simulated patterns are compared with the experimental data collected on a single phase, highly crystalline (Ni 0.42 Co 0.58 ) 2.22 Ti 0.39 O 3 solid-solution thin film exhibiting a large number of subsidiary minima. As a case study, the edge dislocations in hexagonal (Ni,Co) 3 O 3 thin films with Burgers vector parallel and perpendicular to the a-axis and c-axis, respectively, are modeled. No peak profiles are assumed and thus issues related to profile fitting are avoided. Both macroscopic features, such as film thickness, and atomic-scale structure, such as dislocations, are simultaneously modeled. Simulations are run on a desktop machine. Commonly applied database-based phase identification routines can result in wrong phase identification, unless intensities are properly modeled. Modeling tools of diffractometer manufacturers are compared with the present approach. An example of how simulated reciprocal lattice patterns can be used to choose relevant measurement geometries in defected thin films is given.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical Simulation of Irradiation Induced Swelling for STAR 4.1 Blanket

Here, this article presents the preliminary results of FEM implementation of irradiation-induced swelling, hardening, and creep effect using ANSYS user programmable features (UPFs) applied to material properties. The first liquid metal breeding blanket model for STAR 4.1 tokamak as a part of the virtual prototyping system is under development at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). Intense neutron irradiation produces significant changes in the physical and mechanical properties of Fe-(8%–9%)Cr-based reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steels. An ANSYS model of the breeding blanket was built to involve these irradiation-induced material property changes with neutron fluence distribution mapped from the MCNP model. Simulation results show that significant structure deformation forms from nuclear swelling, stress, and plastic strain arising from DPA gradient through wall thickness. The material degradation effect is not negligible. This modeling feature can either assist in analyzing the structural behaviors with the influence of nuclear swelling or provide guidance to design the structure to withstand irradiation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Consist v0.1.0

A Python library for provenance tracking, intelligent caching, and data virtualization in scientific simulation workflows. It automatically records code, configuration, and input data to skip redundant computations and enables querying results across many runs without manual bookkeeping. Designed to support multi-model simulation workflows like the BEAM CORE toolset at LBL, but designed to be extensible to a wide range of research workflows. Combines lineage tracking features as provided by OpenLineage with deterministic hashing like SnakeMake, and adds powerful analysis tools on model outputs.

Needell, Zachary [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2023

Agro-IBIS/THMB Modeled Yield, Nitrogen Loss, and Profitability Maps for the Raccoon River Basin, Iowa, USA

This data was used to assess the potential for improving water quality in this watershed when integrating miscanthus, a bioenergy perennial grass, on to areas of low profit under current corn-soybean management and areas of high nitrogen leaching under both current and future climate conditions. This dataset includes all observations (yield, streamflow, nitrogen loads) and model simulation data used from Dr. Kelsie Ferin’s (former PhD student with Dr. Andy VanLoocke, ISU Dept. of Agronomy) dissertation and publication in Global Change Biology – Bioenergy (DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.13078). Modeled output included in this dataset includes corn, soybean, and miscanthus yields, nitrogen leaching rates, net mineralization rates, land use cover fractions with and without the inclusion of miscanthus, profitability maps, additional soil property maps, and simulated streamflow and nitrogen loads near the outlet of the Raccoon River Basin (Van Meter, Iowa) for both historical and future climate conditions. This dataset includes a mixture of netCDF, .tiff, .csv, and .xlsx files. See README.pdf for more information.

Ferin, Kelsie↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computer Science Research Needs for Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES)

Historically, scientific computing efforts have demonstrated the clear need for, and effective use of, supercomputing with traditional time-stepped simulations. Nevertheless, there are several areas in the mission spaces of the U.S. Department of Energy and other agencies waiting to tap advanced computing research using a different, discrete event style of modeling, simulation, and analysis. These span a wide spectrum of applications including energy grid resilience, urban planning and policy, transportation science, building technologies, emergency response and planning, environmental impact analysis, computational epidemiology, Internet communications, cyber security, and cyber-physical systems, to name only a few. Even within traditional scientific applications, the role of discrete event modes of execution is increasing in the form of new event-based mathematical solvers such as quantized state integration methods and discrete-continuous hybrid system solvers. Co-design of advanced supercomputing hardware systems is another area that exploits discrete event simulation at its core for effective analyses. Complex systems, entity behaviors and interconnections play a significant role in all these applications, which are mapped to large-scale models with discrete event formulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

WaterTAP3 (The Water Technoeconomic Assessment Pipe-Parity Platform)

The Water Technoeconomic Assessment Pipe-Parity Platform (WaterTAP3) was developed under the National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) to facilitate consistent technoeconomic assessments of desalination treatment trains. The WaterTAP3 is an analytically robust modeling tool that can be used to evaluate water technology cost, energy, environmental, and resiliency tradeoffs across different water sources, sectors, and scales. The model simulates steady-state water treatment train performance and costs including flow and constituent mass balance across unit processes, based on source water conditions, configurations of treatment technologies, and system-level techno-economic assumptions. Users can build a new treatment train by connecting any number of unit processes, specific for their context and system, or selecting a train from the treatment train library. The model contains various technical and cost parameter options for a range of treatment processes and a library of influent water quality characteristics for a variety of source waters and case studies. Users can customize water quality parameters to evaluate the technology performance in their context. The model can be set up for different assessment needs including simulation, optimization, and uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The results from WaterTAP3 can help identify trade-offs among the different system performance metrics, with insight on how particular technologies or systems promote pipe-parity. The flexibility and comprehensive scope of the tool makes it a promising solution to industry-wide water technoeconomic evaluations, leading to more informed water investment decisions and technologies. As a user-friendly, open-source platform, WaterTAP3 can be used by industry, academia, policymakers, planners, and those with or without extensive analytical experience.

Miara, Ariel↗

DOE OSTI2021

Water Technoeconomic Assessment Pipe-Parity Platform (WaterTAP3)

Miara, Ariel↗

DOE OSTI2021

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanical cosmology: Simulating scalar fluctuations in expanding universes using synthetic mechanical lattices

Inspired by recent advances in observational astrophysics and continued explorations in the field of analog gravity, we discuss the prospect of simulating models of cosmology within the context of synthetic mechanical lattice experiments. We focus on the physics of expanding universe scenarios described by the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric. Specifically, quantizing scalar fluctuations in a background FLRW spacetime leads to a quadratic bosonic Hamiltonian with temporally varying pair production terms. Here we present a mapping that provides a one-to-one correspondence between these classes of cosmology models and feedback-coupled mechanical oscillators. As proof of principle, we then perform experiments on a synthetic mechanical lattice composed of such oscillators. We simulate two different FLRW expansion scenarios with universes dominated by vacuum energy and matter and discuss our experimental results. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Rhyno, Brendan (ORCID:0000000235266998)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Corn stover harvest reduces soil CO 2 fluxes but increases overall C losses

Abstract Harvesting corn ( Zea mays L.) stover for use as bioenergy feedstock may provide short‐term economic benefits and perhaps improve grain yield in continuous corn systems, but excessive stover removal may lead to long‐term depletion of soil C stocks. To better quantify the impacts of stover harvest on the soil C balance, we investigated CO 2 fluxes under three harvest treatments (none, moderate, and high) in three continuous corn systems: (a) no tillage and no biochar applications, (b) chisel plowing with biochar amendments, and (c) chisel plowing without biochar amendments were quantified. We sampled static chambers 14, 13, and 15 times in 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively, and the measurements were used to calibrate the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator model. Although CO 2 ‐C emissions did not differ among the three systems, both moderate (approximately 30%) and high (approximately 60%) stover removal rates reduced simulated CO 2 ‐C emissions by nearly 10% and more than 22%, respectively. Despite these reductions in CO 2 flux, the sum of CO 2 ‐C and stover C exceeded CO 2 ‐C losses in those plots without stover removal. This finding suggested soil C depletion was occurring for the soil and crop management practices used, even though depletion was not evident after 3 years. Application of biochar increased soil C levels, suggesting it may be able to offset some C losses. We conclude that for sustainable, highly productive agroecosystems that include stover harvest, all agronomic practices must be optimized to minimize C losses and maintain soil quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model

The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The dGen model can be used for identifying the sectors, locations, and customers for whom adopting DERs would have a high economic value, for generating forecasts as an input to estimate distribution hosting capacity analysis, integrated resource planning, and load forecasting, and for understanding the economic or policy conditions in which DER adoption becomes viable, and for illustrating sensitivity to market and policy changes such as retail electricity rate structures, net energy metering, and technology costs.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Kinetic Entropy to Understand Dissipation in Re-connection and Turbulence

This report summarizes results obtained at Space Science Institute (SSI) under a collaborative project funded by the NSF-DOE partnership in Basic Plasma Physics. The overall goal of the project was to perform a study of kinetic entropy as a diagnostic of dissipation in several archetypal models, such as magnetic reconnection and decaying plasma turbulence. The specific task of the SSI group was to perform collisionless and weakly collisional Particle-in-Cell (PIC) simulations modeling these systems. Overall, the project has demonstrated that, as expected, kinetic entropy carries an imprint of weakly collisional processes commonly thought to be associated with dissipation and thus provides an important diagnostic of dissipation. Specific entropy-related metrics have been proposed that could be used as quantitative measures of dissipation. These metrics have been implemented as diagnostics in PIC simulations and their utility, as well as relation to other, previously proposed, measures of dissipation have been demonstrated. Further, PIC simulations were used to investigate a general question of how energy is dissipated in magnetized weakly collisional turbulence in both non-relativistic and relativistic plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Simplified Numerical Approach to Characterize the Thermal Response of a Moving Bed Solar Reactor

Abstract Concentrated solar thermochemical storage in the form of a zero-emission fuel is a promising option to produce long-duration energy storage. Solar fuel is produced using a cavity reactor that captures concentrated solar radiation from a solar field of heliostats. In this paper, heat transfer model of a tubular plug-flow reactor designed and manufactured for a solar fuel production is presented. Experimental data collected from a fixed bed tubular reactor testing are used for model comparison. The system consists of an externally heated tube with counter-current flowing gas and moving solid particles as the heated media. The proposed model simulates the dynamic behavior of temperature profiles of the tube wall, gas, and particles under various gas flowrates and residence times. The heat transfer between gas–wall, solid particle–wall, and gas–solid particle is numerically studied. The model results are compared with the results of experiments done using a 4 kW furnace with a 150 mm heating zone surrounding a horizontal alumina tube (reactor) with 50.8 mm outer diameter and thickness of 3.175 mm. Solid fixed particles of magnesium manganese oxide (MgMn2O4) with the size of 1 mm are packed within the length of 250 mm at the center of the tube length. Simulation results are assessed with respect to fixed bed experimental data for four different gas flowrates, namely, 5, 10, 15, and 20 standard liters per minute of air, and furnace temperatures in the range of 200–1200 °C. The simulation results showed good agreement with maximum steady state error that is less than 6% of those obtained from the experiments for all runs. The proposed model can be implemented as a low-order physical model for the control of temperature inside plug-flow reactors for thermochemical energy storage applications.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2026

Foundation models for atomistic simulation of chemistry and materials

Conventional computational methods for modeling chemical and materials systems are limited by system size and timescale, forcing a trade-off between quantum-mechanical accuracy and the sampling needed for realistic observables. Large language and vision foundation models — pre-trained on massive datasets using transformer architectures — have revolutionized many fields. It is thus interesting to ask whether a foundation model — subject to suitable data, parameter scaling and training — could enable learned simulations of chemistry and materials. Here, in this study, we review the field of machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) and posit that scaling up large and diverse chemical and materials datasets and highly expressive architectures using advanced training strategies should result in models that are: more efficient, transferable, robust to out-of-distribution scenarios, and easier to fine-tune to a variety of downstream physical observables than models trained from scratch on small datasets corresponding to specific, targeted atomistic simulation tasks. We provide specific criteria for creating such large-scale MLIP foundation models, coordinated strategies for their development, evaluation and deployment, and highlight potential emergent capabilities that could transform predictive simulations in chemistry and materials science and accelerate discovery across multiple technological domains.

Yuan, Eric C.-Y. [University of California, Berkel↗