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At least 973 records · Page 54

Information Guided Exploration of Scalar Values and Isocontours in Ensemble Datasets

Uncertainty of scalar values in an ensemble dataset is often represented by the collection of their corresponding isocontours. Various techniques such as contour-boxplot, contour variability plot, glyphs and probabilistic marching-cubes have been proposed to analyze and visualize ensemble isocontours. All these techniques assume that a scalar value of interest is already known to the user. Not much work has been done in guiding users to select the scalar values for such uncertainty analysis. Moreover, analyzing and visualizing a large collection of ensemble isocontours for a selected scalar value has its own challenges. Interpreting the visualizations of such large collections of isocontours is also a difficult task. In this work, we propose a new information-theoretic approach towards addressing these issues. Using specific information measures that estimate the predictability and surprise of specific scalar values, we evaluate the overall uncertainty associated with all the scalar values in an ensemble system. This helps the scientist to understand the effects of uncertainty on different data features. To understand in finer details the contribution of individual members towards the uncertainty of the ensemble isocontours of a selected scalar value, we propose a conditional entropy based algorithm to quantify the individual contributions. This can help simplify analysis and visualization for systems with more members by identifying the members contributing the most towards overall uncertainty. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method by applying it on real-world datasets from material sciences, weather forecasting and ocean simulation experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Fast Framework for Generating Radioactive Mixture Spectra and Its Application to Remote High-Performance Mixture Identification

Remote detection of radioactive materials in mixtures using handheld or portal detectors remains a challenge because of factors such as low concentration, environmental interference, sensor noise, and other complications. This work introduces a fast framework for generating realistic mixture spectra. Moreover, we present mixture isotope identification using data generated by the fast framework. Researchers have examined a range of conventional and recent algorithms within the fields of machine learning and deep learning. An application to uranium enrichment-level prediction has been included. Extensive simulation experiments validated the efficacy of the proposed framework.

GADRAS↗

Medium-Range Order Resists Deformation in Metallic Liquids and Glasses

In crystals, lattice defects, such as dislocations, control mechanical deformation. Similarly, it is widely believed that even in glasses and liquids some kinds of defects, strongly disordered regions, play a major role in deformation. To identify defects researchers focused on the nature of the short-range order (SRO) in the nearest neighbor cage of atoms. However, recent results by experiment, simulation and theory raise serious questions about this assumption. They suggest that the atomic medium-range order (MRO) provides resistance against flow at the atomic level. Because the MRO is a bulk property, it implies that defects play only a limited role. This new insight is supported by the density wave theory which shows that the MRO is driven by a top-down global force, rather than being a consequence of the SRO in the bottom-up manner, and the MRO provides stiffness to resist deformation. We briefly summarize the density wave theory, show that the MRO is related to ductility of metallic glasses, and discuss the implications on the role of the MRO in the atomic-level mechanism of deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

On the Viability of Video Imaging in Leak Rate Quantification: A Theoretical Error Analysis

Optical gas imaging through multispectral cameras is a promising technique for mitigation of methane emissions through localization and quantification of emissions sources. While more advanced cameras developed in recent years have led to lower uncertainties in measuring gas concentrations, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties associated with leak rate estimation have been overlooked. We present a systematic categorization of the involved uncertainties with a focus on a theoretical analysis of projection uncertainties that are inherent to this technique. The projection uncertainties are then quantified using Large Eddy Simulation experiments of a point source release into the atmosphere. Our results show that while projection uncertainties are typically about 5% of the emission rate, low acquisition times and observation of the gas plume at small distances from the emission source (<10 m) can amount to errors of about 20%. Further, we found that acquisition times on the order of tens of seconds are sufficient to significantly reduce (>50%) the projection uncertainties. These findings suggest robust procedures on how to reduce projection uncertainties, however, a balance between other sources of uncertainty due to operational conditions and the employed instrumentation are required to outline more practical guidelines.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

CV4Quantum: Reducing the Sampling Overhead in Probabilistic Error Cancellation Using Control Variates

Quasiprobabilistic decompositions (QPDs) play a key role in maximizing the utility of near-term quantum hardware. For example, Probabilistic Error Cancellation (PEC) (an error mitigation technique) and circuit cutting (which enables large quantum computations to be performed on quantum hardware with a limited number of qubits) both involve QPDs. Computations based on QPDs typically incur large sampling overheads that grow exponentially with the number of error-terms mitigated or number of circuit-cuts employed, limiting their practical feasibility. In this work, we adapt the control variates variance reduction technique from the statistics literature in order to reduce the sampling overhead in QPD-based computations. We demonstrate our method using simulation experiments that mimic a realistic PEC scenario. In our experiments, we observed a more than 50% reduction in the number of samples needed to achieve a given precision, in more than 50% of the PEC-based estimations performed in the study when using our approach. We discuss how future research on constructing good control variates can lead to even stronger sampling overhead reduction.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Roadmap for warm dense matter physics

This roadmap presents the state-of-the-art, current challenges and near future developments anticipated in the thriving field of warm dense matter physics. Originating from strongly coupled plasma physics, high pressure physics and high energy density science, the warm dense matter physics community has recently taken a giant leap forward. This is due to spectacular developments in laser technology, diagnostic capabilities, and computer simulation techniques. Only in the last decade has it become possible to perform accurate enough simulations \& experiments to truly verify theoretical results as well as to reliably design experiments based on predictions. Consequently, this roadmap discusses recent developments and contemporary challenges that are faced by theoretical methods, and experimental techniques needed to create and diagnose warm dense matter. A large part of this roadmap is dedicated to specific warm dense matter systems and applications in astrophysics, inertial confinement fusion and novel material synthesis.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Data for: A hybrid biophysical-machine learning framework for diurnal surface energy flux estimation using proximal sensing

Thermal-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal datasets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for specific surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of an ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81-0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46-0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical – machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

Agricultural Sciences↗

Constraints on methane emissions in North America from future geostationary remote-sensing measurements

The success of future geostationary (GEO) satellite observation missions depends on our ability to design instruments that address their key scientific objectives. Here, an Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is performed to quantify the constraints on methane (CH 4 ) emissions in North America obtained from shortwave infrared (SWIR), thermal infrared (TIR), and multi-spectral (SWIR+TIR) measurements in geostationary orbit and from future SWIR low-Earth orbit (LEO) measurements. Furthermore, we used an efficient stochastic algorithm to compute the information content of the inverted emissions at high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.7°) in a variational framework using the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model and its adjoint. Our results show that at sub-weekly timescales, SWIR measurements in GEO orbit can constrain about twice as many independent flux patterns than in LEO orbit, with a degree of freedom for signal (DOF) for the inversion of 266 and 115, respectively. Comparisons between TIR GEO and SWIR LEO configurations reveal that poor boundary layer sensitivities for the TIR measurements cannot be compensated for by the high spatiotemporal sampling of a GEO orbit. The benefit of a multi-spectral instrument compared to current SWIR products in a GEO context is shown for sub-weekly timescale constraints, with an increase in the DOF of about 50 % for a 3-day inversion. Our results further suggest that both the SWIR and multi-spectral measurements on GEO orbits could almost fully resolve CH 4 fluxes at a spatial resolution of at least 100 km × 100 km over source hotspots (emissions > 4 × 10 5 kg day -1 ). The sensitivity of the optimized emission scaling factors to typical errors in boundary and initial conditions can reach 30 and 50 % for the SWIR GEO or SWIR LEO configurations, respectively, while it is smaller than 5 % in the case of a multi-spectral GEO system. Our results demonstrate that multi-spectral measurements from a geostationary satellite platform would address the need for higher spatiotemporal constraints on CH 4 emissions while greatly mitigating the impact of inherent uncertainties in source inversion methods on the inferred fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling soil CO<sub>2</sub> production and transport with dynamic source and diffusion terms: testing the steady-state assumption using DETECT v1.0

Abstract. The flux of CO2 from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration, Rsoil) is a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Methods to measure and model Rsoil, or partition it into different components, often rely on the assumption that soil CO2 concentrations and fluxes are in steady state, implying that Rsoil is equal to the rate at which CO2 is produced by soil microbial and root respiration. Recent research, however, questions the validity of this assumption. Thus, the aim of this work was two-fold: (1) to describe a non-steady state (NSS) soil CO2 transport and production model, DETECT, and (2) to use this model to evaluate the environmental conditions under which Rsoil and CO2 production are likely in NSS. The backbone of DETECT is a non-homogeneous, partial differential equation (PDE) that describes production and transport of soil CO2, which we solve numerically at fine spatial and temporal resolution (e.g., 0.01 m increments down to 1 m, every 6 h). Production of soil CO2 is simulated for every depth and time increment as the sum of root respiration and microbial decomposition of soil organic matter. Both of these factors can be driven by current and antecedent soil water content and temperature, which can also vary by time and depth. We also analytically solved the ordinary differential equation (ODE) corresponding to the steady-state (SS) solution to the PDE model. We applied the DETECT NSS and SS models to the six-month growing season period representative of a native grassland in Wyoming. Simulation experiments were conducted with both model versions to evaluate factors that could affect departure from SS, such as (1) varying soil texture; (2) shifting the timing or frequency of precipitation; and (3) with and without the environmental antecedent drivers. For a coarse-textured soil, Rsoil from the SS model closely matched that of the NSS model. However, in a fine-textured (clay) soil, growing season Rsoil was ∼ 3 % higher under the assumption of NSS (versus SS). These differences were exaggerated in clay soil at daily time scales whereby Rsoil under the SS assumption deviated from NSS by up to 35 % on average in the 10 days following a major precipitation event. Incorporation of antecedent drivers increased the magnitude of Rsoil by 15 to 37 % for coarse- and fine-textured soils, respectively. However, the responses of Rsoil to the timing of precipitation and antecedent drivers did not differ between SS and NSS assumptions. In summary, the assumption of SS conditions can be violated depending on soil type and soil moisture status, as affected by precipitation inputs. The DETECT model provides a framework for accommodating NSS conditions to better predict Rsoil and associated soil carbon cycling processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Cloud-resolving model Radar SIMulator (CR-SIM) Version 3.3: description and applications of a virtual observatory

Ground-based observatories use multi-sensor observations to characterize cloud and precipitation properties. One of the challenges is how to design strategies to best use these observations to understand these properties and evaluate weather and climate models. This paper introduces the Cloud resolving model Radar SIMulator (CR-SIM), which uses output from high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) to emulate multi-wavelength, zenith-pointing, and scanning radar observables and multi-sensor (radar and lidar) products. CR-SIM allows direct comparison between an atmospheric model simulation and remote-sensing products using a forward-modeling framework consistent with the microphysical assumptions used in the atmospheric model. CR-SIM has the flexibility to easily incorporate additional microphysical modules, such as microphysical schemes and scattering calculations, and expand the applications to simulate multi-sensor retrieval products. In this paper, we present several applications of CR-SIM for evaluating the representativeness of cloud microphysics and dynamics in a CRM, quantifying uncertainties in radar-lidar integrated cloud products and multi-Doppler wind retrievals, and optimizing radar sampling strategy using observing system simulation experiments. These applications demonstrate the application of CR-SIM as a virtual observatory operator on high-resolution model output for a consistent comparison between model results and observations to aid interpretation of the differences and improve understanding of the representativeness errors due to the sampling limitations of the ground-based measurements. CR-SIM is licensed under the GNU GPL package and both the software and the user guide are publicly available to the scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PSTN-051: Survey Strategy and Cadence Choices for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

A summary of survey strategy and cadence choices, simulated and evaluated by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Scheduler Team, prepared for the Survey Cadence and Optimization Committee (SCOC). A large telescope survey, covering the entire visible sky repeatedly every few days in multiple bandpasses over the course of ten years, is the core idea of the LSST. An area of about 20,000 square degrees observed under a wide range of conditions to deep coadded limiting magnitudes in bandpasses ugrizy enables cosmological studies and studies of the Milky Way structure with unprecedented precision; the same survey, when cadenced well, can serve to open new windows into our understanding of transient and variable stars, and extend our knowledge of small bodies throughout the Solar System by orders of magnitude. The outlines of, and some basic necessary requirements for these goals are outlined in the LSST Science Requirements Document (SRD). Finding options for the observing strategy to meet more detailed needs of an even wider range of science goals, as well as building the LSST Scheduler and Metrics Analysis Framework, has been the work of the LSST Scheduler Team with support and input from the astronomical community, including the Community Observing Strategy Evaluation Paper (COSEP), the Call for White Papers, numerous performance metrics, and guidance from the LSST Science Advisory Committee in their Recommendations for Operations Simulator Experiments. This report will help enable the SCOC to make its recommendation for the preferred survey strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The effect of electron cyclotron heating on density fluctuations at ion and electron scales in ITER baseline scenario discharges on the DIII-D tokamak

Experiments simulating the ITER Baseline Scenario on the DIII-D tokamak show that torque-free pure electron heating, when coupled to plasmas subject to a net co-current beam torque, affects density fluctuations at electron scales on a sub-confinement time scale, whereas fluctuations at ion scales change only after profiles have evolved to a new stationary state. Modifications to the density fluctuations measured by the Phase Contrast Imaging diagnostic (PCI) are assessed by analyzing the time evolution following the switch-off of Electron Cyclotron Heating (ECH), thus going from mixed beam/ECH to pure neutral beam heating at fixed β N . Within 20 ms after turning off ECH, the intensity of fluctuations is observed to increase at frequencies higher than 200 kHz; in contrast, fluctuations at lower frequency are seen to decrease in intensity on a longer time scale, after other equilibrium quantities have evolved. Non-linear gyro-kinetic modeling at ion and electron scales scales suggest that, while the low frequency response of the diagnostic is consistent with the dominant ITG modes being weakened by the slow-time increase in flow shear, the high frequency response is due to prompt changes to the electron temperature profile that enhance electron modes and generate a larger heat flux and an inward particle pinch. These results suggest that electron heated regimes in ITER will feature multi-scale fluctuations that might affect fusion performance via modifications to profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Meteoroid impact on the lunar surface.

Simulation experiments to determine lunar surface reaction to lunar probe impact, noting impact flash, flash duration and emitted light spectrum

SPACE PROBE↗

Studies on Arctic survival.

Aircrew Arctic survival situation simulation experiments with survivors staying close to aircraft and walking across difficult terrain from emergency location

Aksnes, E. G.↗

Integration methods where force is obtained from the smoothed gravitational field.

Discussion of the possibilities to study the dynamics of collisionless stellar systems by condensing the large number of stars that such systems may contain into a smaller number of superparticles and using numerical or computer models to perform computer experiments simulating Vlasov phenomena by following the simultaneous motion of a large number of superparticles. A computer model for disks of stars and a two-dimensional rod model are considered.

Hohl, F.↗