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At least 973 records · Page 54

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013–14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013–2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013–March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts.

Infectious Diseases↗

A size-invariant bud-duration timer enables robustness in yeast cell size control

Cell populations across nearly all forms of life generally maintain a characteristic cell type-dependent size, but how size control is achieved has been a long-standing question. The G1/S boundary of the cell cycle serves as a major point of size control, and mechanisms operating here restrict passage of cells to Start if they are too small. In contrast, it is less clear how size is regulated post-Start, during S/G2/M. To gain further insight into post-Start size control, we prepared budding yeast that can be reversibly blocked from bud initiation. While blocked, cells continue to grow isotropically, increasing their volume by more than an order of magnitude over unperturbed cells. Upon release from their block, giant mothers reenter the cell cycle and their progeny rapidly return to the original unperturbed size. We found this behavior to be consistent with a size-invariant 'timer' specifying the duration of S/G2/M. These results indicate that yeast use at least two distinct mechanisms at different cell cycle phases to ensure size homeostasis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multiple social platforms reveal actionable signals for software vulnerability awareness: A study of GitHub, Twitter and Reddit

Software vulnerabilities are flaws in computer systems that leave users open to attack. In many cases, these vulnerabilities go unnoticed and remain unresolved in codebases. Thus, awareness of software vulnerabilities among the public is crucial to ensure effective cybersecurity practices, the development of high quality software, and ultimately national security. This awareness can be better understood by studying the spread and evolution of software vulnerability discussions in online communities. This work is the first to evaluate and contrast how discussions about software vulnerabilities spread on three social platforms -- Twitter, GitHub, and Reddit. To lay the groundwork, we showcase a novel fundamental framework for measuring information spread that identifies the spread mechanisms and observables across platforms, the units of information, and the groups of measurements that can be applied to focus on a specific phenomena e.g., information cascades. We then analyze and contrast social network topologies for three example social networks and measure the scale and speed of the spread of discussion of specific vulnerabilities to understand how far and how widely they spread, how many users participate in discussions, and the duration of their spread. To demonstrate the awareness of more impactful software vulnerabilities, a subset of our analysis focuses on vulnerabilities targeted during recent major cyber attacks as well as vulnerabilities exploited by advanced persistent threat groups. We discover that usually, vulnerability discussions start on GitHub, before occurring on Twitter and Reddit. While studying how some user-level and content-level characteristics influence vulnerability spread, we observe that Twitter discussions started by users predicted to be humans have larger size, breadth, depth, adoption rate, lifetime, and structural virality compared to those started by users predicted to be bots. On Reddit, we contrast the differences in thread structure that originate from posts with positive, negative and neutral polarity. We find that posts that are positive have larger, deeper and wider discussions compared to negative and neutral posts. We anticipate the results of our analysis to not only increase the understanding of software vulnerability awareness but also inform models for simulating information spread across multiple social environments online.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Seismic Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Fracture Generation During EGS Resource Development - Full Moment Tensors and Stress Inversion Catalogs

This submission contains 167 full moment tensor (MT) solutions for the seismicity observed two years prior and three years post start of injection activities. Also included are the azimuth and plunge angles for the three main stress directions sigma1, sigma 2 and sigma 3 at the Prati32 EGS demonstration site in the northwest Geysers geothermal reservoir. The data are divided into 15 time periods spanning a range of five years, including two years prior to start of injection until three years post start of injection activities.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Quantitative analysis of mammalian translation initiation sites by FACS -seq

An approach combining fluorescence-activated cell sorting and high-throughput DNA sequencing (FACS-seq) was employed to determine the efficiency of start codon recognition for all possible translation initiation sites (TIS) utilizing AUG start codons. Using FACS-seq, we measured translation from a genetic reporter library representing all 65,536 possible TIS sequences spanning the -6 to +5 positions. We found that the motif RYMRMVAUGGC enhanced start codon recognition and translation efficiency. However, dinucleotide interactions, which cannot be conveyed by a single motif, were also important for modeling TIS efficiency. Our dataset combined with modeling allowed us to predict genome-wide translation initiation efficiency for all mRNA transcripts. Additionally, we screened somatic TIS mutations associated with tumorigenesis to identify candidate driver mutations consistent with known tumor expression patterns. Finally, we implemented a quantitative leaky scanning model to predict alternative initiation sites that produce truncated protein isoforms and compared predictions with ribosome footprint profiling data. The comprehensive analysis of the TIS sequence space enables quantitative predictions of translation initiation based on genome sequence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Age-related changes in Miscanthus × giganteus phenology and the effect of nitrogen fertilization

Perennial plants go through noticeable morphological, developmental, and physiological changes as they age. Whether these age-related changes are driven by ontogenetic differences, are the result of different environmental conditions, or an artifact of plant size remains unknown. In this research we used the warm-season grass Miscanthus × giganteus as model herbaceous perennial species to study age-related changes on phenology. Age-related experiments are usually based on field experimental design that confound growing season and age effects and ignore variability generated during the establishment of the stand. Here, we used a staggered-start experimental design where stands are repeatedly planted over subsequent years providing the ability to separate plant age effects from environmental effects. We hypothesized (i) M. × giganteus would produce more plant structures and reach more advanced developmental stages in a given growing season as it aged. (ii) Juvenile stands would have faster developmental rates and start development sooner and (iii) Mature stands would start senescence sooner in the growing season. Finally, we studied nitrogen (N) fertilization effects on M. × giganteus phenology as to assess whether age-related changes could be an artifact of size and N dilution in mature bigger individuals. We hypothesized that (iv) fertilized juvenile stands would have similar dynamics as mature unfertilized stands. Data were collected bi-weekly on all established stands during 2016 and 2017. Ten stems were harvested from each plot and staged at the lab according to M. × giganteus morphological scale developed by Tejera & Heaton (2017). Time series progression were then analyzed using non-linear models and parameters were compared across stand ages, N treatments and growing seasons. R scripts used to analyze the data are available upon request.

Aging↗

SOC Synthetic Microstructure Bank

QUICK START: Start with property_library.html (can be found by typing the filename into the query box) and use the interactive table to filter, sort, and select a microstructure with the desired properties. Search for the alphabetic code to obtain the corresponding dataset. Full description: This is a bank of 1,970 unique 3-phase electrode microstructure files. When you account for reassigning phase IDs (e.g. declare that 1=Ni and 2=pore, instead of 1=pore and 2=Ni), it actually represents 5,910 unique electrode microstructures, each of which could be considered to be either an air or a fuel electrode (e.g. declare that the phase IDs correspond to pore, Ni, and YSZ; or that they correspond to pore, LSCF, and GDC; or whatever electron-conductor and ion-conductor combination is being studied). The voxel size is 50 nm and each electrode file contains a 4x4 grid of (12.5 micron)^3 sub-volumes. If placed together in a grid, they comprise a 50x50x12.5 micron electrode (note that the interfaces between sub-volumes will be sharp; this can be mitigated via simulating annealing/relaxation). The sub-volumes can also be used individually for a reasonably sized 12.5 micron cubic region-of-interest. A user can simply consider the voxel size to be a different value to rescale the volumes (and all of their morphological features, including particle size) as desired. These microstructures were generated using DREAM3D. The general procedure is outlined in https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2018.03.025 The file names are an alphabetic code having to do with the input parameters used in DREAM3D when they were generated. Most users would be best served by starting with the file property_library.html or property_library_subvols.html (which lists properties for each individual subvolume). These files contain a catalogue of the actual, measured properties of every microstructure in the database. Any combination of property values can be filtered and sorted until a desired electrode is found, at which point the user can find the file corresponding to that alphabetic code. The properties in the catalogue include connected TPB density, and for each phase: phase fraction, average particle size, polydispersity of particle size, tortuosity, and connected pair-wise interfacial area. They also include what fraction of each property is connected through to the interfaces of the volume. If the desired combination of properties is not found at first, remember that the phase IDs can be re-assigned arbitrarily, e.g. swapping 1s and 2s. In fact, the database was generated with this in mind so as not to generate redundant microstructures. If the database does not contain the desired property combinations, try to search for the other possible permutations of those properties with re-assigned phase IDs. Please cite https://doi.org/10.1149/10301.0909ecst for use. Please contact the maintainer, William K. Epting, for additional information or assistance.

3D microstructure↗

A vibrational spectroscopic study of kernite to 25 GPa: Implications for the high-pressure stability of borate polyhedra

The Raman and infrared spectra of kernite [Na 2 B 4 O 6 (OH) 2 ·3H 2 O] have been characterized up to ~25 and 23 GPa, respectively, to explore pressure-induced changes in a structurally novel mineral that contains mixed coordination borate groups (threefold and fourfold), as well as both hydroxyl groups and water molecules. BO 3 and BO 4 vibrational modes are characterized in both the Raman and infrared spectra of kernite, and reassignments of some modes are made based on observed pressure shifts. Under compression to ~25 GPa, kernite undergoes three phase transitions: one initiates near ~2.5 GPa, the second occurs at ~7.0 GPa, and the third near 11.0 GPa. The first transition is characterized by a loss of both a subset of the Na-associated modes and a sharp OH peak, and it is fully reversible. The second transition is characterized by the loss of most of the BO 3 modes, some of the BO 4 modes at ~7 GPa, and further broadening of the H 2 O and OH peaks. This transition is partially reversible on decompression, but the Raman spectra indicate that the high-pressure structure and its reversion products are likely disordered. The third transition is characterized by the loss of most of the Raman and infrared modes, and it is not reversible on decompression. The decompression products from ~25 GPa have markedly different infrared and Raman spectra from the starting material, and appear to involve different bonding environments of boron than are present in the starting materials: thus, pressure treatment of boron-rich materials may generate novel quenchable structures. Notably, the BO 3 groups in kernite are destabilized under compression, with the BO 4 groups appearing to be more stable under compression. This shift in coordination may be endemic among borate glasses and crystalline borates under compression. The coordination conversion (and its products on decompression) is likely to highly depend on the detailed topology of the starting materials. Commonalities and differences between the threefold to fourfold transitions in borate systems relative to those in carbonate systems are presented. Lastly our results, combined with prior shock data, indicate that kernite, which may be representative of low-temperature borate minerals, can persist during impact events with peak shock pressures less than ~33 GPa, and the primary polyborate structural units involved in early ribose stabilization would thus survive most impact conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DECREASE: Development of a Commercial Ready Enzyme Application System for Ethanol (Final Technical Report)

Conversion of biomass to sugars plays a central in reducing our dependence on petroleum, as it allows production of a wide range of biobased fuels and chemicals, through fermentation of those sugars. The DECREASE project delivers an effective enzyme cocktail for this conversion, enabling reduced costs for producing advanced biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol. Benefits to the public contributed by growth of the advanced biofuels industry include job creation, economic growth, and energy security. The DECREASE primary project objective was to develop a two-fold improved enzyme cocktail, relative to an advanced cocktail (CZP00005) that had been developed previously (from 2000- 2007). While the final milestone was delivery of all enzyme components as an experimental mixture, a secondary objective was to deploy an improved cocktail within 3 years following the close of the project. In February 2012, Novozymes launched Cellic® CTec3, a multi-enzyme cocktail derived in part from components developed under DECREASE. The externally validated performance of CTec3 and an additional component under project benchmarking conditions indicated a 1.8-fold dose reduction in enzyme dose required for 90% conversion (based on all available glucose and xylose sources) of NREL dilute acid pretreated PCS, relative to the starting advanced enzyme cocktail. While the ability to achieve 90% conversion is impressive, targeting such high levels of biomass digestion is likely not the most cost effective strategy. Novozymes techno economic modeling showed that for NREL's dilute acid pretreated corn stover (PCS), 80% target conversion enables a lower total production cost for cellulosic ethanol than for 90% conversion, and this was also found to be the case when cost assumptions were based on the NREL 2002 Design Report. A 1.8X dose-reduction was observed for 80% conversion in the small scale (50 g) DECREASE benchmark assay for CTec3 and an additional component. An upscaled experiment (in 0.5 kg kettle reactors) was performed to compare the starting enzyme mixture CZP00005 with CTec3 alone; these results indicated a 1.9X dose- reduction for 80% conversion. The CTec3 composition does not include the best available enzyme components from the DECREASE effort. While these components are not yet available in a commercial product, experimental mixtures were assayed in a smaller scale assay using DECREASE PCS, at high solids loadings (21.5% TS). The results indicated that the newer mixtures required 2.9X-less enzyme for 90% conversion, and 3.2X-less enzyme for 80% conversion, relative to the starting enzyme cocktail. In conclusion, CTec3 delivers a 1.8-1.9X dose reduction on NREL PCS at high solids loadings, and the next generation enzyme from Novozymes will continue to show dramatically improved biochemical performance. CTec3 allows reduced costs today, and the experimental cocktails point to continued biotechnological improvements that will further drive down costs for biorefineries of tomorrow.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Production of Energy Efficient Preform Structures (PEEPS)

Due to its low density, good structural characteristics, excellent fabrication properties, and attractive appearance, aluminum metal and its alloys continue to be widely utilized. The transportation industry continues to be the largest consumer of aluminum products, with aerospace as the principal driver for this use. Boeing has long been the largest single company consumer of heat-treated aluminum in the U.S. The extensive use of aluminum to build aircraft and launch vehicles has been sustained, despite the growing reliance on more structurally efficient carbon fiber reinforced composite materials. The trend in the aerospace industry over the past several decades has been to rely extensively on large, complex, thin-walled, monolithic machined structural components, which are fabricated from heavy billets and thick plate using high speed machining. The use of these high buy-to-fly ratio starting product forms, while currently cost effective, is energy inefficient, with a high environmental impact. The widespread implementation of Solid State Joining (SSJ) technologies, to produce lower buy-to-fly ratio starting forms, tailored to each specific application, offers the potential for a more sustainable manufacturing strategy, which would consume less energy, require less material, and reduce material and manufacturing costs. One objective of this project was to project the energy benefits of using SSJ techniques to produce high-performance aluminum structures if implemented in the production of the world fleet of commercial aircraft. A further objective was to produce an energy consumption prediction model, capable of calculating the total energy consumption, solid waste burden, acidification potential, and CO2 burden in producing a starting product form - whether by conventional or SSJ processes - and machining that to a final part configuration. The model needed to be capable of computing and comparing, on an individual part/geometry basis, multiple possible manufacturing pathways, to identify the best balance of energy consumption and environmental impact. This model has been created and populated with energy consumption data for individual SSJ processes and process platforms. Technology feasibility cases studies were executed, to validate the model, and confirm the ability to create lower buy-to-fly ratio performs and machine these to final configuration aircraft components. This model can now be used as a tool to select manufacturing pathways that offer significant energy savings and, when coupled with a cost model, drive implementation of the SSJ processes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Systems level investigation of uranium response and regulation by Caulobacter crescentus

In the past year, we have fully started this project both in terms of laboratory setup and staffing. We have outfitted a new laboratory that hosts most of the equipment needed for the project, and we hired two postdoctoral fellows (Drs. Cho and Ma) who work on the project full time. Dr. Mimi Cho received her Ph.D. in the laboratory of Dr. JoAnne Stubbe at MIT in early 2012. Her graduate work focused on the biochemistry of polyhydroxybutyrate granule formation in Ralstonia eutropha . She has expertise in protein purification and enzyme characterization, which will be useful in our biochemical studies on the putative phytase. Additionally, she has experience in both fluorescence microscopy and TEM of bacterial cells, which will help us to characterize the physiology of C. crescentus under uranium stress. Dr. Jincai Ma has a Ph.D. in environmental sciences from Rutgers University. During his graduate studies, he employed a combination of molecular genetics, chemical kinetics, and spectroscopy to elucidate the mechanisms of selenium reduction by Enterobacter cloacae . After receiving his Ph.D., he studied the persistence and survival of the food pathogen, E. coli O157:H7, in soils of leafy greens at the US Salinity Laboratory (U.C. Riverside) for his postdoctoral training. Dr. Ma’s role in the current project is to investigate the proteomics of C. crescentus in response to various stresses and to examine microbe-uranium interaction. Dr. Cho started at LLNL in March 2012 and Dr. Ma in June 2012. It should be noted that the PI, Dr. Jiao, took a 3-month maternity leave (Nov 2011- Jan 2012). As a result, the pace of the progress in the last year was not as fast as we had hoped. Nevertheless, we have begun several lines of experimental approaches towards the overall goal of our research: deciphering the mechanism of uranium (U) resistance in Caulobacter crescentus . In the past year, our research has focused on one question: what are the genes and proteins that are involved in U (and other heavy metal) resistance in C. crescentus and how do these genetic elements function to confer resistance? We have started to test several of our hypotheses through a targeted approach, in which we have focused on the roles of a putative phytase and an S-layer protein. In addition, we employed three unbiased approaches towards an understanding of the fundamental processes that underpin U resistance, including Tn-seq, proteomic profiling, and Fosmid library screening. For these studies, we have integrated bacterial culturing, genetics, biochemistry, spectroscopy, electron microscopy, and next-generation sequencing. Our major accomplishments for the first year of the ECRP are listed below, categorized by specific aims.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

PHEV Engine Control and Energy Management Strategy (FY12 Annual Report)

Our objective was to investigate novel engine control strategies targeted at rapid engine/catalyst warming for the purpose of mitigating tailpipe emissions from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) exposed to multiple engine cold start events, and to validate and optimize hybrid supervisory control techniques developed during previous and on-going research projects by integrating them into the vehicle level control system and complementing them with the modified engine control strategies in order to further reduce emissions during both cold start and engine re-starts.

Chambon, Paul H.↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor-Driven Pumps 1998–2012

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-driven valves (MDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from fiscal year 1998 through 2012 for the component reliability as reported in the Equipment Performance and Information Exchange (EPIX). The MDP failure modes considered for standby systems are failure to start, failure to run less than or equal to 1 hour, and failure to run more than 1 hour; for normally running systems, the failure modes considered are failure to start and failure to run. An 8 hr unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire active period. One statistically significant increasing trend was identified in the MDP results for standby MDP run hours per reactor critical year. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified for unreliability (for standby and normally running systems) frequency of failure-to-start events for standby systems and failure probability for standby systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Scale-up of Novel Low-Cost Carbon Fibers Leading to High-Volume Commercial Launch

The project started in September, 2012 with the goal of scaling up from the existing laboratory scale process for producing carbon fiber (CF) from polyolefin (PO) based precursor fiber using a Dow proprietary sulfonation-desulfonation stabilization process. The award was used to develop a process that was capable of producing market development quantities of CF from PO precursor fiber at a rate of 4 kg/h of CF. The CF would target properties that met or exceeded the Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicles Technology [1] standard; i.e., 172 GPa modulus and 1.72 GPa strength at greater than or equal to 1% strain. The Dow proprietary process was capable of meeting and exceeding these targets properties. Project DE-EE0005760 resulted from a Collaborative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between Dow and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) with support from the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC) and DOE. In the first budget period, the main goal was to design a sulfonation-desulfonation market development plant capable of stabilizing PO precursor fiber at a rate of 5 kg/h using a sulfonation solution. The detailed design, location, and cost estimate were determined as scheduled in the Project Management Plan (PMP). In parallel with this DOE award project was a fundamentals and economic evaluation funded by The Dow Chemical Company (Dow). The goal of the Dow sponsored project was to finalize the mass balances, energy balances, and levelized cost to produce CF using the Dow process. A Go-No-Go decision was scheduled in June, 2013 based on the findings of the DOE sponsored scale up project and the Dow sponsored project. In June, 2013, Dow made the No-Go decision to halt and abandon the Dow proprietary sulfonation-desulfonation process for stabilizing PO precursor fibers for the manufacturing of CF. This No-Go decision was identified in the original proposal and at the start of this project, and the decision was made as scheduled. The decision was based on the high levelized economic cost of the process relative to the manufacture of CF from polyacrylonitrile (PAN) precursor fibers. The capital required to sulfonate the fibers adds a significant cost to the process due to the need for investment in a sulfuric acid recovery plant. This high additional capital over the capital for a PAN based CF plant, reduces the levelized economic cost to slightly advantaged over PAN based CF. The sulfonation-desulfonation stabilization route failed to meet the Dow’s return on investment criterion and the cost advantage target set forth for the DOE project. The DOE and Dow decided to halt spending on the project until a new PO fiber stabilization process could be identified that met the DOE physical properties standard and the levelized economic cost constraints of Dow. When the new technology was developed, then award DE-EE0005760 would be re-started with the same goals of the development of a market development plant capable of producing CF at 4 kg/h with the properties that met or exceed those set forth by the Department of Energy Vehicles Technology standard. Progress on the development of the new process has been slow and thus has delayed the scale up project. Dow’s efforts to date have not progressed to the point of demonstrating a commercially-viable process for production of low cost CF from PO precursors for Dow’s rigorous economic constraints. After extensive discussions within Dow and consultation with DOE’s Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) Headquarters and Golden Field Office teams, Dow has decided to proceed with the formal recommendation to terminate subject project. DOE’s AMO Headquarters and Golden Field Office teams agreed with the termination of the project.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigations of Beam Dynamics Issues at Current and Future Hadron Accelerators (Final Report)

There is a synergy between the fields of Beam Dynamics (BD) in modern particle accelerators and Applied Mathematics (AMa). We have formulated significant problems in BD and have developed and applied tools within the contexts of dynamical systems, topological methods, numerical analysis and scientific computing, probability and stochastic processes, and mathematical statistics. We summarize the three main areas of our AMa work since 2011. First, we continued our study of Vlasov-Maxwell systems. Previously, we developed a state of the art algorithm and code (VM3@A) to calculate coherent synchrotron radiation in single pass systems. In this cycle we carefully analyzed the major expense, namely the integral-over-history (IOH), and developed two approaches to speed up integration. The first strategy uses a representation of the Bessel function J0 in terms of exponentials. The second relies on “local sequences” developed recently for radiation boundary conditions, which are used to reduce computational domains. Although motivated by practicality, both strategies involve interesting and rather deep analysis and approximation theory. As an alternative to VM3@A, we are integrating Maxwell’s equations by a time-stepping method, bypass- ing the IOH, using a Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method. DG is a generalization of Finite Element and Finite Volume methods. It is spectrally convergent, unlike the commonly used Finite Difference methods, and can handle complicated vacuum chamber geometries. We have applied this in several contexts and have obtained very nice results including an explanation of an experiment at the Canadian Light Source, where the geometry is quite complex. Second, we continued our study of spin dynamics in storage rings. There is much current and proposed activity where spin polarized beams are being used in testing the Standard Model and its modifications. Our work has focused on invariant spin fields (ISFs) and amplitude dependent spin tunes (ADSTs), which are essential for estimating beam polarization. Several algorithms have been developed since the 1980s for computing the ISF, among them the Heinemann- Hoffstaetter method of stroboscopic averaging (SA) which is implemented in the code SPRINT. SA, which computes the ISF by using spin tracking data, can find the ISF to computer precision if it exists and thus can give evidence for existence of the ISF. Central to our work is resolving the ISF conjecture, which says that, off orbital resonance, an ISF exists. Thus Heinemann developed, in his 2010 PhD thesis, a new framework which unifies and generalizes the notions of ISF and ADST by using bundle theory. This lead to a long paper which was a major collaborative effort during the recent cycle. In a nutshell, our bundle approach elegantly unifies the dynamics of spin-1/2 and spin-1 particles, e.g., protons and deuterons. In fact it is well known that these two kinds of dynamics are driven by the same spin transfer matrix and in our approach one sees the deeper reason for this: the spin transfer matrix carries the natural dynamics of a principal bundle whereas the difference between the spin-1/2 and spin-1 dynamics lies in their different geometrical situation, i.e., different underlying associated bundles. Thus one arrives at new results for polarized beams, among them the Invariant Reduction Theorem (IRT) and the Cross Section Theorem (CST). The IRT gives a necessary and sufficient condition for the ISF to exist. The SA technique revealed, 20 years ago, that each ISF can be viewed as a complex agglomerate of spin tracking data. The bundle approach goes one step further by using the IRT and the CST to glue spin tracking data into agglomerates which are candidates for ISFs. We gain insight because the “good” agglomerates, in the presence of an ISF, are very different from the “bad” ones. Finally we mention that the bundle approach has analogies to the approach used in geometrical Yang-Mills theory. Third, we studied X-Ray Free Electron Lasers (FELs), which are electron accelerators producing coherent undulator radiation over a wide range of frequencies from microwaves to x-rays. The photon beams produced in FEL undulators are used to study material samples in biology, material science etc. We developed a mathematical analysis, based on the 6D Lorentz system, of energetic electrons moving through a planar undulator excited by a Maxwell traveling wave field of wavelength λ. Our Method of Averaging perturbation analysis yields non-resonant and near-to-resonant normal form approximations as a function of λ, which we present in two averaging theorems. We prove the theorems in detail, error bounds and giving a tutorial on mathematically rigorous perturbation theory in a context where proofs are easily understood. To our knowledge the planar problem has not been analyzed with the generality here nor has the standard FEL pendulum system, which appears on resonance, been derived with error bounds. In addition to the domains of validity of the normal forms we obtain new insights that require further study, including a more general low gain theory. With a firm foundation in the non-collective case above we are studying the 3D collective case from start up from noise to high gain and saturation. We have formulated the noise start up as a problem of going from the microscopic Klimontovich-Maxwell to the macroscopic Vlasov-Maxwell with a Vlasov correction term. In the 1D setting, we seek an alternative to the phenomenological Vlasov approach which models shot noise by a perturbation on an initial “smooth” density. The 1D wave equation with a Klimontovich source is often the starting point for the 1D FEL high gain theory. We have a new representation of solutions which may lead to new insights.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor-Driven Pumps 1998–2014

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-driven pumps at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from fiscal year 1998 through 2014 for the component reliability as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The motor-driven pump failure modes considered for standby systems are failure to start, failure to run less than or equal to one hour, and failure to run more than one hour; for normally running systems, the failure modes considered are failure to start and failure to run. An eight hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant increasing trends were identified in pump run hours per reactor year. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified for standby systems industry-wide frequency of start demands, and run hours per reactor year for runs of less than or equal to one hour.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Lattice QCD Calculation of Nucleon Structure

It is emphasized in the 2015 NSAC Long Range Plan that "understanding the structure of hadrons in terms of QCD's quarks and gluons is one of the central goals of modern nuclear physics." Over the last three decades, lattice QCD has developed into a powerful tool for ab initio calculations of strong-interaction physics. Up until now, it is the only theoretical approach to solving QCD with controlled statistical and systematic errors. Since 1985, we have proposed and carried out first-principles calculations of nucleon structure and hadron spectroscopy using lattice QCD which entails both algorithmic development and large-scale computer simulation. We started out by calculating the nucleon form factors -- electromagnetic, axial-vector, πNN, and scalar form factors, the quark spin contribution to the proton spin, the strangeness magnetic moment, the quark orbital angular momentum, the quark momentum fraction, and the quark and glue decomposition of the proton momentum and angular momentum. The first round of calculations were done with Wilson fermions in the `quenched' approximation where the dynamical effects of the quarks in the sea are not taken into account in the Monte Carlo simulation to generate the background gauge configurations. Beginning in 2000, we have started implementing the overlap fermion formulation into the spectroscopy and structure calculations. This is mainly because the overlap fermion honors chiral symmetry as in the continuum. It is going to be more and more important to take the symmetry into account as the simulations move closer to the physical point where the u and d quark masses are as light as a few MeV only. We began with lattices which have quark masses in the sea corresponding to a pion mass at ~ 300 MeV and obtained the strange form factors, charm and strange quark masses, the charmonium spectrum and the D s meson decay constant f D s , the strangeness and charmness, the meson mass decomposition and the strange quark spin from the anomalous Ward identity. Recently, we have started to include multiple lattices with different lattice spacings and different volumes including large lattices at the physical pion mass point. We are getting quite close to being able to calculate the hadron structure at the physical point and to do the continuum and large volume extrapolations, which is our ultimate aim. We have now finished several projects which have included these systematic corrections. They include the leptonic decay width of the ρ, the πN sigma and strange sigma terms, and the strange quark magnetic moment. Over the years, we have also studied hadron spectroscopy with lattice calculations and in phenomenology. These include Roper resonance, pentaquark state, charmonium spectrum, glueballs, scalar mesons a 0 (1450) and σ(600) and other scalar mesons, and the 1 -+ meson. In addition, we have employed the canonical approach to explore the first-order phase transition and the critical point at finite density and finite temperature. We have also discovered a new parton degree of freedom -- the connected sea partons, from the path-integral formulation of the hadronic tensor, which explains the experimentally observed Gottfried sum rule violation. Combining experimental result on the strange parton distribution, the CT10 global fitting results of the total u and d anti-partons and the lattice result of the ratio of the momentum fraction of the strange vs that of u or d in the disconnected insertion, we have shown that the connected sea partons can be isolated. In this final technical report, we shall present a few representative highlights that have been achieved in the project.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Neutrino Interactions

The neutrino group of the University of Tennessee, Knoxville was involved from 05/01/2013 to 04/30/2015 in the neutrino physics research funded by DOE-HEP grant DE-SC0009861. Contributions were made to the Double Chooz nuclear reactor experiment in France where second detector was commissioned during this period and final series of measurements has been started. Although Double Chooz was smaller experimental effort than competitive Daya Bay and RENO experiments, its several advantages make it valuable for understanding of systematic errors in measurements of neutrino oscillations. Double Chooz was the first experiment among competing three that produced initial result for neutrino angle θ 13 measurement, giving other experiments the chance to improve measured value statistically. Graduate student Ben Rybolt defended his PhD thesis on the results of Double Chooz experiment in 2015. UT group has fulfilled all the construction and analysis commitments to Double Chooz experiment, and has withdrawn from the collaboration by the end of the mentioned period to start another experiment. Larger effort of UT neutrino group during this period was devoted to the participation in another DOE-HEP project - NOvA experiment. The 14,000-ton "FAR" neutrino detector was commissioned in northern Minnesota in 2014 together with 300-ton "NEAR" detector located at Fermilab. Following that, the physics measurement program has started when Fermilab accelerator complex produced the high-intensity neutrino beam propagating through Earth to detector in MInnessota. UT group contributed to NOvA detector construction and developments in several aspects. Our Research Associate Athanasios Hatzikoutelis was managing (Level 3 manager) the construction of the Detector Control System. This work was successfully accomplished in time with the commissioning of the detectors. Group was involved in the development of the on-line software and study of the signatures of the cosmic ray backgrounds. Flumerfelt and another graduate student Philip Mason were also studying the non-linearity properties of the NOvA liquid scintillator - information that will be essential at the final stages of NOvA data analysis. Philip Mason also studied the response of the FAR NOvA detector in correlation with solar flares. Flumerfelt and Mason successfully defended their PhD in 2015. Also, undergraduate student Cameron Blake Erickson has defended his undergraduate thesis on the NOvA liquid scintillator studies with Compton gamma spectrometer at UT.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗