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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible by-Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors

Next-generation advanced reactors (ARs) incorporate enhanced safety systems, have smaller source terms, and feature compact modular designs, which should lessen their collective risk profiles. However, to fully evaluate risk, security needs to be a part of the equation. Without taking security into consideration, safety systems and components in the new ARs may be vulnerable to sabotage. These base attributes, coupled with enhanced security features specific to AR design through sound engineering and security-by-design (SeBD), should provide developers and operators with lower inherent security risk profiles. Building security early into the AR design may remove or passively secure potential critical targets from an adversary’s reach , thereby increasing overall safety and security. An integrated approach and diverse design team that includes engineering, operations, and security experts are fundamental to building security into the design without sacrificing fundamental operational efficiencies and principles. The objective of this project was to evaluate the security and safety interfaces for five classes of reactors, identify potential security vulnerabilities of structures, systems, and components (SSC), and underscore the need to consider security alongside safety in the design o f these concepts. The five reactor classes evaluated in this project and presented in this report are molten-salt reactors (MSR), high temperature gas reactors (HTGR), sodium-fast reactors (SFR), advanced light-water reactors (ALWR), and microreactors. These designs were selected because they reflect the concepts that are closest to market deployment and have received significant resource investments from the public and private sector. This project assesses the inherent security risks posed by common classes of ARs, provides a methodology and framework to assess security along with safety, and offers an analysis of potential mitigation strategies that could be incorporated. For each AR technology, the SSCs that relate to radionuclide source safety functions are discussed to understand the SSC contribution to safety and relative importance in the protective strategy for the design. The assumptions that went into evaluating each reactor concept originated from generic publicly available nonproprietary information and should not directly be used to qualify an absolute risk profile nor to rank specific AR designs. Instead, the purpose of the analysis is to understand and compare the generic inherent security risks of different AR technologies.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recommendations for Secure Transport: Material Conveyance Physical Protection Technology

Nuclear material is at higher risk of theft and sabotage during transport than during any other phase of the nuclear fuel lifecycle. Nuclear materials are transported in the public domain where adversaries have an upper hand by taking advantage of the time and location of the theft or sabotage attempt. As such, even modest threat profiles for transport of nuclear and radioactive material can require substantial detection and delay measures to support timely response. Conveyance tracking augmented with technology that improves on-the-scene situational awareness at a remote monitoring center has been adopted as a de-facto standard approach for transportation security. At present, the extended tracking and situational awareness capabilities needed for a nuclear material shipment, as is provided by the purpose designed, Transportation – Security, Tracking and Reporting (T-STAR) System, do not exist in a single commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solution. Typically, the COTS systems that excel in one area are deficient in other areas, presenting challenges to designing well-rounded, robust systems. Still, COTS solutions can offer the basic set of tracking and situational awareness capabilities by indicating last update time, current location, and route taken. By incorporating vehicle and driver performance measures via the vehicle’s controller area network (CAN bus) and video alongside other data streams allows telemetry and other shipment information to be assessed in novel ways.This paper describes the operation, capabilities and features of various conveyance protection systems and approaches, assesses emerging technologies and how they could be used through a unified interface, and enumerates additional ways to provide early detection using vehicle, onboard technologies, effective delay technologies and approaches and simple equipment to improve protection during transport.

Shannon, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Evolutionary Algorithm to Personalize Stool-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening

Fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is an established method for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Measured FIT-concentrations are associated with both present and future risk of CRC, and may be used for personalized screening. However, evaluation of personalized screening is computationally challenging. In this study, a broadly applicable algorithm is presented to efficiently optimize personalized screening policies that prescribe screening intervals and FIT-cutoffs, based on age and FIT-history. We present a mathematical framework for personalized screening policies and a bi-objective evolutionary algorithm that identifies policies with minimal costs and maximal health benefits. The algorithm is combined with an established microsimulation model (MISCAN-Colon), to accurately estimate the costs and benefits of generated policies, without restrictive Markov assumptions. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in three experiments. In Experiment 1, a relatively small benchmark problem, the optimal policies were known. The algorithm approached the maximum feasible benefits with a relative difference of 0.007%. Experiment 2 optimized both intervals and cutoffs, Experiment 3 optimized cutoffs only. Optimal policies in both experiments are unknown. Compared to policies recently evaluated for the USPSTF, personalized screening increased health benefits up to 14 and 4.3%, for Experiments 2 and 3, respectively, without adding costs. Generated policies have several features concordant with current screening recommendations. The method presented in this paper is flexible and capable of optimizing personalized screening policies evaluated with computationally-intensive but established simulation models. It can be used to inform screening policies for CRC or other diseases. For CRC, more debate is needed on what features a policy needs to exhibit to make it suitable for implementation in practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as those left wild. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have established a comprehensive global consumption database directly linked to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. This database, featuring a spatial resolution of approximately 300 meters, builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) biomass parameters. Consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. We define ‘residual burned area’ as area burning in a region that has burned on a previous day for the same fire season, and ‘new burned area’ as area burning in a region that has not recently burned. This product serves as a valuable tool when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly estimate the carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere. Previously, we developed a similar emissions method utilizing satellite information, in conjunction with the FCCS 30-meter United States fuelbed dataset. We implemented this approach on fires, documented during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets.

Emily Gargulinski↗
NASA NTRS2016

Design and Development of a Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage for Human Mars Exploration

NASA is currently working on the Evolvabe Mars Campaign (EMC) study to outline transportation and mission options for human exploration of Mars. One of the key aspects of the EMC is leveraging current and planned near-term technology investments to build an affordable and evolvable approach to Mars exploration. This leveraging of investments includes the use of high-power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems evolved from those currently under development in support of the Asteroid Redirect Mission to deliver payloads to Mars. The EMC is considering several transportation options that combine solar electric and chemical propulsion technologies to deliver crew and cargo to Mars. In one primary architecture option, the SEP propulsion system is used to pre-deploy mission elements to Mars while a high-thrust chemical propulsion system is used to send crew on faster ballistic transfers between Earth and Mars. This high-thrust chemical system uses liquid oxygen - liquid methane main propulsion and reaction control systems integrated into the Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (MCPS). Over the past year, there have been several studies completed to provide critical design and development information related to the MCPS. This paper is intended to provide a summary of these efforts. A summary of the current point of departure design for the MCPS is provided as well as an overview of the mission architecture and concept of operations that the MCPS is intended to support. To leverage the capabilities of solar electric propulsion to the greatest extent possible, the EMC architecture pre-deploys the required stages for returning crew from Mars. While this changes the risk posture of the architecture, it provides mass savings by using higher-efficiency systems for interplanetary transfer. However, this does introduce significantly longer flight times to Mars which, in turn, increases the overall lifetime of the stages to as long as 3000 days. This unique aspect to the concept of operations introduces several challenges, specifically related to propellant storage and engine reliability. These challenges and some potential solutions are discussed. Specific focus is provided on two key technology areas; propulsion and cryogenic fluid management. In the area of propulsion development, the development of an integrated methane propulsion system that combines both main propulsion and reaction control is discussed. This includes an overview of potential development paths, areas where development for Mars applications are complementary to development efforts underway in other parts of the aerospace industry, and commonality between the MCPS methane propulsion applications and other Mars elements, including the Mars lander systems. This commonality is a key affordability aspect of the Evolvable Mars Campaign. A similar discussion is provided for cryogenic fluid management technologies including a discussion of how using cryo-propulsion in the Mars transportation application not only provides performance benefits but also leverages decades of technology development investments made by NASA and its aerospace contractor community.

Percy, Thomas K.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Sensor Selection and Data Validation for Reliable Integrated System Health Management

For new access to space systems with challenging mission requirements, effective implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) must be available early in the program to support the design of systems that are safe, reliable, highly autonomous. Early ISHM availability is also needed to promote design for affordable operations; increased knowledge of functional health provided by ISHM supports construction of more efficient operations infrastructure. Lack of early ISHM inclusion in the system design process could result in retrofitting health management systems to augment and expand operational and safety requirements; thereby increasing program cost and risk due to increased instrumentation and computational complexity. Having the right sensors generating the required data to perform condition assessment, such as fault detection and isolation, with a high degree of confidence is critical to reliable operation of ISHM. Also, the data being generated by the sensors needs to be qualified to ensure that the assessments made by the ISHM is not based on faulty data. NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing technologies for sensor selection and data validation as part of the FDDR (Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Response) element of the Upper Stage project of the Ares 1 launch vehicle development. This presentation will provide an overview of the GRC approach to sensor selection and data quality validation and will present recent results from applications that are representative of the complexity of propulsion systems for access to space vehicles. A brief overview of the sensor selection and data quality validation approaches is provided below. The NASA GRC developed Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) is a model-based procedure for systematically and quantitatively selecting an optimal sensor suite to provide overall health assessment of a host system. S4 can be logically partitioned into three major subdivisions: the knowledge base, the down-select iteration, and the final selection analysis. The knowledge base required for productive use of S4 consists of system design information and heritage experience together with a focus on components with health implications. The sensor suite down-selection is an iterative process for identifying a group of sensors that provide good fault detection and isolation for targeted fault scenarios. In the final selection analysis, a statistical evaluation algorithm provides the final robustness test for each down-selected sensor suite. NASA GRC has developed an approach to sensor data qualification that applies empirical relationships, threshold detection techniques, and Bayesian belief theory to a network of sensors related by physics (i.e., analytical redundancy) in order to identify the failure of a given sensor within the network. This data quality validation approach extends the state-of-the-art, from red-lines and reasonableness checks that flag a sensor after it fails, to include analytical redundancy-based methods that can identify a sensor in the process of failing. The focus of this effort is on understanding the proper application of analytical redundancy-based data qualification methods for onboard use in monitoring Upper Stage sensors.

Garg, Sanjay↗
NASA NTRS2016

Design and Development of a Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage for Human Mars Exploration

NASA is currently working on the Evolvabe Mars Campaign (EMC) study to outline transportation and mission options for human exploration of Mars. One of the key aspects of the EMC is leveraging current and planned near-term technology investments to build an affordable and evolvable approach to Mars exploration. This leveraging of investments includes the use of high-power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems, evolved from those currently under development in support of the Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM), to deliver payloads to Mars. The EMC is considering several transportation options that combine solar electric and chemical propulsion technologies to deliver crew and cargo to Mars. In one primary architecture option, the SEP propulsion system is used to pre-deploy mission elements to Mars while a high-thrust chemical propulsion system is used to send crew on faster ballistic transfers between Earth and Mars. This high-thrust chemical system uses liquid oxygen - liquid methane main propulsion and reaction control systems integrated into the Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (MCPS). Over the past year, there have been several studies completed to provide critical design and development information related to the MCPS. This paper is intended to provide a summary of these efforts. A summary of the current point of departure design for the MCPS is provided as well as an overview of the mission architecture and concept of operations that the MCPS is intended to support. To leverage the capabilities of solar electric propulsion to the greatest extent possible, the EMC architecture pre-deploys to Mars orbit the stages required for returning crew from Mars. While this changes the risk posture of the architecture, it can provide some mass savings by using higher-efficiency systems for interplanetary transfer. However, this does introduce significantly longer flight times to Mars which, in turn, increases the overall lifetime of the stages to as long as 2500 days. This unique aspect to the concept of operations introduces several challenges, specifically related to propellant storage and engine reliability. These challenges and some potential solutions are discussed. Specific focus is provided on two key technology areas; propulsion and cryogenic fluid management. In the area of propulsion development, the development of an integrated methane propulsion system that combines both main propulsion and reaction control is discussed. This includes an overview of potential development paths, areas where development for Mars applications are complementary to development efforts underway in other parts of the aerospace industry, and commonality between the MCPS methane propulsion applications and other Mars elements, including the Mars lander systems. This commonality is a key affordability aspect of the Evolvable Mars Campaign. A similar discussion is provided for cryogenic fluid management technologies including a discussion of how using cryo propulsion in the Mars transportation application not only provides performance benefits but also leverages decades of technology development investments made by NASA and its aerospace contractor community.

Percy, Thomas K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

An introduction to financial option pricing on a qudit-based quantum computer

The financial sector is anticipated to be one of the first industries to benefit from the increased computational power of quantum computers, in areas such as portfolio optimisation and risk management to financial derivative pricing. Financial mathematics, and derivative pricing in particular, are not areas quantum physicists are traditionally trained in despite the fact that they often have the raw technical skills needed to understand such topics. On the other hand, most quantum algorithms have largely focused on qubits, which are comprised of two discrete states, as the information carriers. However, discrete higher-dimensional qudits, in addition to possibly possessing increased noise robustness and allowing for novel error correction protocols in certain hardware implementations, also have logarithmically greater information storage and processing capacity. In the current NISQ era of quantum computing, a wide array of hardware paradigms are still being studied and any potential advantage a platform offers is worth exploring. Here we introduce the basic concepts behind financial derivatives for the unfamiliar enthusiast as well as outline in great detail the quantum algorithm routines needed to price a European option, the simplest derivative. This is done within the context of a quantum computer comprised of qudits and employing the natural higher-dimensional analogue of a qubit-based pricing algorithm with its various subroutines. From these pieces, one should relatively easily be able to tailor the scheme to more complex, realistic financial derivatives. Finally, the entire stack is numerically simulated with the results demonstrating how the qudit-based scheme's payoff quickly approaches that of both a similarly-resourced classical computer as well as the true payoff, within error, for a modest increase in qudit dimension.

Bornman, Nicholas↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Dehydration of Aluminum (Oxy)hydroxides on Fuel Cladding Material - 20200

The aluminum cladding of research-reactor fuel undergoes general corrosion with resulting formation of adherent aluminum (oxy)hydroxide films during in-reactor and post-discharge exposure to water under various conditions and temperatures. These (oxy)hydroxides contain chemically-bound water that poses challenges for extended dry storage due to the risk of thermal or radiolytic decomposition releasing free water and/or hydrogen and oxygen gases. This study comprised laboratory experiments of thermal drying behavior of aluminum (oxy)hydroxides to identify approaches for reducing bound water on fuel cladding prior to sealed dry storage. Effective drying strategies for adherent (oxy)hydroxides on fuel cladding will improve the safety of dry storage by mitigating potential avenues for additional corrosion and/or generation of flammable gases inside the storage canister. This work is part of a broader investigation to address knowledge gaps and technical data needs for dry storage of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF), which included investigation of (oxy)hydroxide formation on aluminum alloy substrates immersed in water, characterization of service-grown films from ASNF, and radiolytic yield of hydrogen from (oxy)hydroxide powders and films. The current work comprises experimental thermal dehydration of aluminum trihydroxides (bayerite and gibbsite) characteristic of low-temperature (<80 deg. C) corrosion in water and aluminum oxyhydroxide (boehmite) characteristic of high temperature (>80 deg. C) corrosion in water. First, commercially produced (oxy)hydroxide powders (boehmite and gibbsite) were tested via thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The effort aimed to identify or confirm key temperature ranges/thresholds for the thermal decomposition reactions, as well as impacts of ramp rate and hold times, for drying of isolated, high-surface-area (oxy)hydroxides. The information gleaned from powder tests was used to guide subsequent drying tests on adherent (oxy)hydroxide films grown on aluminum alloy substrates. TGA was used to analyze small samples of the aluminum coupons with adherent (oxy)hydroxide films. Specimens were characterized both pre- and post-drying using X-ray diffraction (XRD) to determine the film composition and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to determine its morphology. Drying of adherent (oxy)hydroxide films was anticipated to pose additional complications relative to drying of (oxy)hydroxide powders. Anticipated challenges include achieving sufficient drying of the (oxy)hydroxide at low-enough temperature to avoid melting or other undesirable phase changes in the aluminum substrate and overcoming transport limitations of water through the thickness of a dense film or through a tortuous pore structure to reach the outer surface of the film. Inn addition, dehydration of (oxy)hydroxides significantly changes the film density, which may lead to substantial alterations in the morphology, including potential cracking and spalling of the film. TGA/DSC tests of gibbsite powders resulted in successful conversion to boehmite or alumina, depending on the maximum temperature reached. At low ramp rates (≤5 deg. C/min), the conversion to boehmite occurred around 300 deg. C (210-340 deg. C). XRD confirmed that boehmite was the only phase detected after tests reaching 450 deg. C. The transition to alumina occurred around 510 deg. C (470-550 deg. C), with XRD detecting only alumina after tests reaching at least 600 deg. C. Boehmite powders dehydrated to alumina at about 400 deg. C (330-460 deg. C) for coarse (77-μm particle diameter) powder and about 490 deg. C (420-520 deg. C) for fine (0.7-μm particle diameter) powder. For all powders tested, the maximum percent mass loss after drying to high temperature slightly exceeded the theoretical mass loss for complete dehydration of the stoichiometric (oxy)hydroxide to alumina, which is likely attributable to physisorbed water in the powder. Drying of a thick (∼8.6 μm), predominantly bayerite adherent film displayed a dramatic change in film morphology, with the initially continuous trihydroxide film cracking into sections on the order of 50 μm square and partially delaminating. The outermost layer of the film completely faked of in some regions. The layer exposed under the spalled oxide also displayed prominent cracking, with spacing on the order of 10 μm, but this surface layer appeared to remain completely adhered to the aluminum substrate. TGA showed mass losses per unit surface area up to ∼1.0 mg/cm{sup 2}. XRD characterization of the remaining oxide was inconclusive, with no crystalline phases detected. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Missing Data and Multiple Imputation: An Unbiased Approach

The default method of dealing with missing data in statistical analyses is to only use the complete observations (complete case analysis), which can lead to unexpected bias when data do not meet the assumption of missing completely at random (MCAR). For the assumption of MCAR to be met, missingness cannot be related to either the observed or unobserved variables. A less stringent assumption, missing at random (MAR), requires that missingness not be associated with the value of the missing variable itself, but can be associated with the other observed variables. When data are truly MAR as opposed to MCAR, the default complete case analysis method can lead to biased results. There are statistical options available to adjust for data that are MAR, including multiple imputation (MI) which is consistent and efficient at estimating effects. Multiple imputation uses informing variables to determine statistical distributions for each piece of missing data. Then multiple datasets are created by randomly drawing on the distributions for each piece of missing data. Since MI is efficient, only a limited number, usually less than 20, of imputed datasets are required to get stable estimates. Each imputed dataset is analyzed using standard statistical techniques, and then results are combined to get overall estimates of effect. A simulation study will be demonstrated to show the results of using the default complete case analysis, and MI in a linear regression of MCAR and MAR simulated data. Further, MI was successfully applied to the association study of CO2 levels and headaches when initial analysis showed there may be an underlying association between missing CO2 levels and reported headaches. Through MI, we were able to show that there is a strong association between average CO2 levels and the risk of headaches. Each unit increase in CO2 (mmHg) resulted in a doubling in the odds of reported headaches.

Foy, M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

New Millennium EO3

The New Millennium Program (NMP) is a NASA technology program that focuses on the validation of advanced spacecraft and instrumentation technologies in space. This program specifically seeks technologies that could significantly benefit future space and Earth science missions by enabling new science capabilities and reducing life cycle costs. These technologies must also require a validation in space to mitigate risks to the first science users, and provide cross-cutting benefits to both NASA's Earth and Space Science enterprises. The NASA Office of Earth Science (OES) directed the NMP to focus the third Earth Observing mission, E03, on innovative measurement concepts that would facilitate remote sensing observations from orbits beyond conventional low-Earth orbit (LEO). These orbits include geosynchronous orbits, highly elliptical orbits, mid-Earth and high-Earth orbits, and other unique vantage points such as L1 and L2. To maximize the input from the Earth science community, a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) was released to solicit innovative measurement concepts for this NMP flight. Because the NMP is a technology validation program, rather than a conventional science program, the NRA required that these measurement concepts employ revolutionary technologies and/or measurement strategies that will enable future science missions from orbits beyond LEO. Another requirement was that a validation in space was needed to reduce real or perceived risks of this concept to future science users. The proposals submitted in response to this NRA were peer reviewed by the NASA OES. The measurement concepts selected through this process will be summarized in this presentation. The E03 measurement concept NRA did not solicit complete mission concepts or flight hardware. Instead, the selected investigators will join integrated project formulation teams to define the mission for the demonstration of the measurement technique and participate in mission design trades and implementation planning. The teams will define and document the measurement approach, the required technologies, the validation plan, the scalability of the design to future science missions, and the infusion path for the completely validated instrument. During this project formulation phase, the specific technologies required to implement each measurement concept will be solicited through an open technology solicitation, and the technology providers will be added to the integrated teams. Once a complete candidate mission concept has been formulated for each measurement concept, these concepts will be subjected to a comprehensive review. The Associate Administrator of the OES will use the results of this review to select a single concept for the E03 flight opportunity. That mission concept will enter its implementation phase, which is expected to last for less than 36 months before launch. During this phase, and after launch, the implementation team will work with the NMP to document and disseminate the information gathered during the flight qualification testing and operations of the measurement concept and its component technologies. This information will be archived and published, where appropriate, to encourage the rapid infusion of these validated technologies into future space and Earth science missions. I

Li, Fuk K.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

prospection↗
NASA NTRS2006

Applying Advanced and Existing Sensors in Dealing with Potential Natural Disasters

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone s needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a prerequisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2004

Chronic Medication and or Monitoring for Long Duration Space Flight: What Should The Policy Be?

While a private individual with a chronic medical condition could perhaps justifiably claim the right to become a "space tourist" through informed consent, NASA and other International crew members are national assets, trained at government expense to fulfill a mission considered essential to national goals. The medical requirements/policy for selection and certification of crewmembers for long duration missions to the International Space Station (ISS) should address: (1) Crewmembers with chronic conditions that require regular dosing of life-sustaining medication for the purposes of secondary or tertiary prevention (i.e. tumor suppression therapy or anticoagulation). (2) Crew members with conditions that will be worsened by spaceflight exposure, placing them at additional personal health risk though not necessarily increasing mission risk (i.e. previous radiation exposure or preflight osteopenia/osteoporosis) The following policies are recommended. A crewmember should not be assigned to an International Space Station mission who: (3) Requires medications to sustain life or who has a disease, which requires medical procedures or diagnostics to monitor and treat same. (4) Has medical condition, which would prevent participation as a candidate in many scientific and medical operational research studies, as their underlying condition would confound the collected data. (5) Requires specialized medical devices for monitoring or treatment of a medical condition, including conditions that require special provisions to conduct routine required countermeasure activities. (6) Who has a disease or requires treatment for same, and for which the effects of space travel may be deleterious to the short or long term health of the individual, An evidence-based approach will be used to provide rationale for policy recommendations under these scenarios. Operational impacts of allowing these medical conditions to fly on the ISS will also be presented.

Hamilton, Douglas R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Inversion of In Situ Deformation Measurement Data for Injection-Induced Stress Change

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to play a key part of the global effort to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions and perhaps even reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations through carbon negative operations. A critical part of effort to commercialize and widely deploy this technology is developing the capability to rapidly assimilate real-time monitoring data into a form that will enable site operators to make decisions to manage the safe and efficient operations. Two of the risks associate with GCS are the risk of inducing fractures in the sealing formations that can create leakage pathways and the risk of inducing earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to cause public concern, property damage, or safety risks. To properly manage these risks the site operator needs to know the initial state of stress, the change in stress induced by injection, and the relationship between operational parameters such as injection rate and pressure and the change in stress. Current methods of estimating the change in stress require choosing the type of constitutive model and the model parameters based on core, log, and geophysical data during the characterization phase, with little feedback from operational observations to validate or refine these choices. These characterization methods interrogate the geologic formations using length scales, loading rates or magnitudes that are quite different from those encountered by the actual storage system. It is shown that errors in the assumed constitutive response, even when informed by laboratory tests on core samples, are likely to be common, large, and underestimate the magnitude of stress change caused by injection. Recent advances in borehole-based strain instruments and borehole and surface-based tilt and displacement instruments have now enabled monitoring of the deformation of the storage system throughout its operational lifespan. This data can enable validation and refinement of the knowledge of the geomechanical properties and state of the system, but brings with it a challenge to transform the raw data into actionable knowledge. We demonstrate a method that uses automatic differentiation and a finite-element based geomechanical model perform a gradient-based deterministic inversion of geomechanical monitoring data. This approach allows autonomous integration of the instrument data without the need for time consuming manual interpretation and selection of updated model parameters. Furthermore, only isotropic linear elasticity is considered in this paper, the approach presented is very flexible as to what type of geomechanical constitutive response can be used. The approach is easily adaptable to nonlinear physics-based constitutive models to account for common rock behaviors such as creep and plasticity. The approach also enables training of machine learning-based constitutive models by allowing back propagation of errors through the finite element calculations. This enables strongly enforcing known physics, such as conservation of momentum and continuity, while allowing data-driven models to learn the truly unknown physics such as the constitutive or petrophysical responses.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Should We Enhance the Observing Systems or Improve Coordination Among the Operating Agencies: What is Needed the Most for Security--A Philosophical Discussion

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomenas. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2006

Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2006

Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting together to address such colossal problems. Increasing our knowledge of the home planet, via amplified set of observations, is certainly a right step in a right direction. Furthermore, this is a pre-requisite in understanding multiple hazard phenomena's. This paper examines various sensorweb options and observing architectures that can be useful specifically in addressing some of these complex issues. The ultimate goal is to serve the society by providing potential natural hazards information to the decision makers in the most expeditious manner so they can prepare themselves to mitigate potential risks to human life, livestock and property.

Habib, Shahid↗